Keywords Abstract
Sahk, Kaarel. "20 years of experience and the challenges for the next decade: Where the appraisal tends?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Good foundation for analyse of real estate appraisal situation gives us a timescale of the procedures development during some last decades. The time scale of procedure itself is possible to divide into deferent segments that are describing the political or economic development of a state as a built environment and prolong it into the subsequent future. According the current trends of development of world economy, it is evidential that some new approaches of real estate valuation will direct the procedure during the following decade. On the one hand, it is strongly linked with development of international or local valuation standards, the contemporary drivers are also implementation of ISO 9001 principles together with the third party insurance, and on the other hand, the changes accounting some new principles of development of all surroundings and their influences as well. The basic importance arise from influences of certain EU decrees and directives, overall principles of sustainability that in turn place attention to the approaches of energy efficiency described trough energy labels and finally bring the valuation to need for something new. In this case the basic question is how the historical equation formed in 1930 by Miller (The theory of interest, McMillan) and developed during the last twenty years by Baum and Crosby (1995) and Michael Ball (1998) through the interpretation of depreciation’s nature, will finally account variable of sustainability. Lastly named draws down a new target, which means a need to establish a linkage based on market research, while the real estate market includes different markets and submarkets linked with classical and neoclassical diversification of real estate in all.

Das, Prashant, Parmanand Sinha, Julia Freybote, and Roland Fuess. "A Behavioral Explanation to Spatial Dependencies in Commercial Real Estate Asset Prices." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. In this study we provide a behavioral explanation for spatial dependence in commercial property asset pricing.  We analyze nearly 6000 hotel transactions in the US between 2001 and 2016 applying temporal spatial autoregression with autoregressive error (T-SARAR) models to test the behavioral explanation. We show that the spatial lags are partially driven by behavioral biases whereas the spatial errors do not exhibit a distinct pattern of association with market conditions which are known to influence the investor behavior. In particular, spatial lags influence future transactions the most when irrational sentiments are the lowest (during periods of unexplained pessimism) or when the rational financial market anxiety is the highest (during periods of economic turmoil).
Zhao, Ya, and Lennon Choy. "A comparative analysis of land readjustment at international context." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Land readjustment, as an alternative to traditional land expropriation, has been implemented by both developed and developing countries in urban land development during past century. It promotes an inclusive urban development process and is observed to solve the overwhelming holdout dilemma and free rider problem in most cases especially where public budget is constrained or where legal or ideological support for property right protection is strong. However, LR is still a brand-new technique to other countries and regions whilst the fruitful achievements in some countries. Furthermore, LR is not a panacea for all cultures and communities. Its effectiveness is impaired in some cases due to inappropriate adjustment over changing political, economic and social environment. In this context, a comprehensive and comparative analysis within the frame of international literature is necessary to facilitate the study and transfer of LR. By examining international experiences and operation details in 14 countries, we summarize the applications and strengths of LR and compare mechanisms, policies, legal frameworks systematically across these countries. The challenges and weaknesses of this instrument as well as countermeasures are also explored to yield more insights into prospective improvements for more efficient applications. This article makes one of the first attempts to establish a comprehensive analysis of land readjustment at the international context.

Banyte, Jurgita, and Vida Maliene. "A comparative analysis of office property market dynamics." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Economic, social and environmental factors have a substantial impact on the performance of the commercial property market in Europe. Quantitative and qualitative factors such as globalization, monetary and fiscal policies or investors` expectations, influence property market dynamics, specifically extensive market fluctuations. However, the literature on property investment environments in Europe, reveals that some European countries exercise fitting management of property market fluctuations through various policies, these applicable at a national level. As such, there is the need to recognize and share successful policy and apply the best practice across the Europe.

This presentation discusses research involving a comparative analysis of office market dynamics and related policies, which can impact market fluctuations in the UK, Sweden, Germany and France. A list of criteria which represent healthy office market conditions and promote successful property investment, have been determined and will also be discussed. The criteria have been established following a critical analysis of the literature and primary research (a survey for professionals). A mix of methods were applied to establish the significance of said criteria. The intermediate results from this research will inform further research to establish a framework for a sustainable commercial property market in the UK.

Kindt, Andreas. "A Framework for the optimal Development and Application of Automated Valuation Models (AVMs)." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. With the increasing digitization and big data, automated valuation models (AVMs) are becoming increasingly important within the real estate industry (internationally). The further potential for the use of AVM seems enormous. However, the mainstream AVM research is hitherto largely one-dimensional and requires a wider and focus. Especially stakeholders with situational-recurrent (e.g. mortgage lending, transaction, etc.) or regular valuation tasks (e.g., risk management, performance analysis, etc.), have the need for individual AVM solutions. An efficient access to the subject is still difficult because of the high complexity. Thus, the respective stakeholders have an increased interest in systematic and integrated decision support. Working on this point, the dissertation tries to give guidance for the optimal development and application of AVMs.
Warren-Myers, Georgia, Katrina Raynor, and Matthew Palm. "A negotiator's tool: An Affordable Housing Calculator for voluntary agreements." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Rapid increases in housing costs, stagnant wage growth and limited government funding have created a housing affordability crisis in many cities, in particular in capital cities in Australia. Unlike elsewhere in the world where affordable housing contributions are secured through inclusionary zoning or other planning processes, the Australian context is largely devoid of any mandatory requirements for affordable housing provision in new development. Recent changes to legislation in Victoria have enabled planners to negotiate with developers to secure voluntary affordable housing contributions by offering alternative incentives. However, the lack of financial literacy and understanding of development feasibility and the effects of affordable housing provision on development viability and profit is likely to limit the success of this change. This paper reports on the conceptual framework and development of an Affordable Housing Negotiation Calculator to assist in educating local and state government representatives, community housing providers and developers about affordable housing provision and its effects on development feasibility. It is hoped this tool will enable those decision-makers to better negotiate positive outcomes for an increase in affordable housing while communicating the factors that impact on development feasibility.

Zhang, Fangchen(Melanie), Steven Devaney, and Anupam Nanda. "A Network Analysis of the Transaction Liquidity of UK Commercial Property Market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The study discusses the market network structure evolutions of selected commercial real estate market in the United Kingdom. While previous studies discuss investors’ behaviours in an aggregate level but assume investor make decisions independently, this study investigates into the transaction counterparts, using Social Network Analysis (SNA) to explain the role changes of foreign investors, as well as the change of transaction network structure. Results of 14 metro markets in London, Midland and Northern England from 2001 to 2015 show that, foreign investors become more active throughout the 15 years, with some foreign investors being “hubs” in the transaction network in some metro markets. However, given the comparatively higher centralities, the UK investors are still the dominant counterparts who facilitate the circulation of the assets. Further, connectivity structure of markets varies among metros, with transactions in some markets becoming more integrated while in other markets certain key investors domain (“star-structure”). Moreover, the transaction tendency among investors that share the same features (based on one’s connections in the market and nationality) has impacts to the commercial market liquidity. This study applies SNA as an innovative method to real estate studies in order to provide insights to market structure discussions. The results are expected to provide strong implications on transaction market evolution and market stability.
Kim, Jaehwan, Gongcheol Jeong, and JunSik Choi. "A study of land value change in the area near the Urban Regeneration Project - Changdong Art Village in Changwon City in Korea." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The present study applied the analytical framework for the relationship between land development projects and land value and their effect on land value, which was discussed in previous studies, to an urban regeneration project, and analyzed their relationship with land value. The scope and subject of this study’s analysis included land value change for two years in Changwon before, during, and after the first generation urban regeneration project. The results showed that while the average cumulative rate of change for 4 dongs within the 1 km affected area was 15.3%, that of 6 dongs within the 5 km affected area it was 25.8%, which was quite high. Hence, as part of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport’s regulatory efforts to curb a steep land value rise in the areas adjacent to urban regeneration projects, it is necessary to approach the steep rise by closely examining a land value change trend in 5 km from the project area, instead of simply regulating the immediately adjacent areas. 

Chiang, Ying Hui. "A Study on the Determinants of Residential Rental and the Minority Tenants in Taipei’s Metropolitan Area." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The skyrocketing price has led housing to be unaffordable that young citizens are compelled to choose to rent over purchasing houses. The concentration of job opportunities in cities further enhances the demands for rental housing that in turns drives the rental level upwards. The elevated rent incentivizes young citizens to live in illegal rooftop extensions or partitioned small units in an inferior and hazardous environment. The problems of unaffordable housing have attracted attention from media and the government. In response, the government has augmented the supply of social housing and enacted Rental Housing Market Development and Regulation Act. However, there is a controversy over social housing being rent too high and furniture equipped inside unfit.

Previous studies have examined the housing rent or residential rental markets. In comparison with the home sales market, however, the rental sector warrants more attention. Based on the state-maintained registration of real estate transactions and rental, and other rental housing listings websites operated by the private sector, this study intends to address three questions: determinants of Taipei's metropolitan housing rental, the spatial distribution of minority tenants and affordability of rental housing. As a whole, this study aims to clarify the housing demands of various tenant groups and problems associated with their living environment. The research findings are hoped to improve the housing policies and alleviate the housing difficulties encountered by the minority groups in the housing sectors.

Park, Sae Woon. "A Study on the Impact of Living Floor on the Price of an Apartment using a Spatio-temporal Model." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This study analyzes the impact of living floor on the price of an apartment using 3,249  price data sample of apartments traded in Sejong city in 2017. In addition to a traditional regression analysis, we employ a spatial lag model, and a spatio-temporal model to consider the prices of neighboring apartments. Among these, spatio-temporal model turned out to be the fittest since its log likelihood was the biggest with having the smallest AIC and SC value. 

In regard to living floor which is our main concern, we made a dummy variable per 3- floor- unit with having 1-3 floor unit as our reference variable, and the highest dummy being 28-30 floor unit dummy. We controlled such variables as size, total floor, age, squared age, the number of households, parking lot capacity, stair type apartment dummy, distance from government complex, distance from Daejon city hall, BTR dummy, brand name dummy, and time fixed effect dummy which can also affect the price. 

As results, we found that except for the number of households variable and time fixed effect variables, most variables were significant with 1% level. Especially, living floor dummy of our interest showed that except for 19-21 floor dummy, the higher the floor, the higher the price. This result is different from literature where living floor raises the price up to a certain point of floor, but after the point the price rather declines. This may be because the residents in Sejong city are comparatively young, on average, and they may favor high living floors which can provide good environmental benefits. Besides, the coefficient of relative living floor (living floor/total floor) was bigger than that of living floor, which shows that apartment purchasers value relative height of living floor more than just the height of living floor. 

Gu, Yuewen, and Ping Lyu. "A study on the impact of regional differences in housing of migrant workers and the integration of urban and rural development - An analytical framework based on behavioral economics." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Research objectives:Based on the analysis framework of behavioral economics, this paper explores the regional differences of migrant workers' housing.Research methods:theoretical analysis, spatial error model (SEM).Research contents:(1) At the micro intergenerational level,  analyse housing between the new generation and the old generation of migrant workers by the influence of the regional differentiation.(2) At the macroeconomic level, the influences of different channels such as economic development, industrial structure and urban absorption on the housing of migrant workers are studied and discussed.(3) Taking urban and rural development as the condition, analyze the impact of regional differences on the housing of migrant workers;(4) Discuss the degree of regional differences  of migrant workers housing in different periods, such as the short term and the long term.Research conclusion:In view of the intergenerational differences of migrant workers, we should improve the urban housing conditions of the new generation of migrant workers respectively, and give full play to the wealth effect of rural housing of the old generation of migrant workers. And according to the different regional characteristics, sub - city policy.
Gunawardhana, Terans, and Kanchana Perera. "Adaptability of Digital Technologies to Sustainable Construction Practices In Sri Lanka." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Enormous literature sources suggest that with the development of digital technologies many industries tend to change their business models, strategies and applications. Accordingly, some scholars argue that the construction industries are facing significant challenges as more processes are digitised and automated. Therefore, this study focused on reviewing how developing technologies affect the sustainability of future construction industry. 

The research aimed to examine the adaptability of digital technologies in the future of the Sri Lankan construction industry. In this study, the objectives were formulated as, to identify the current level of application of modern technologies towards sustainable practices in Sri Lankan construction industry, to determine the possible developments in advanced technologies towards sustainable practices in Sri Lankan construction industry, and explore the potential issues of modern technologies Sustainable practices in Sri Lankan construction industry and solutions for them. The qualitative approach was adapted to attain the aim and objectives of the research. A content analysis was done to analyse the responses received from semi-structured interviews and validated through the stakeholder analysis. 

One of significant findings of the research indicate that lack of awareness about the advantages of adopting technologies in construction industry activities has become a severe problem, in this case, actions should be taken to increase the knowledge of the entire industry. There were some identified limitations throughout the whole research process. Mainly, time was recognised as a crucial boundary for the research, especially for data collection process. However, these study results suggest to carry out some research in the future to assess effect through economic, social and environmental aspects of technologies used in the construction industry and to develop a framework to understand the future role of each expert in Sri Lankan construction industry due to due to changes in technologies.

Van der Kloet, Hieke. "Aging and smart independent living in Dutch rural areas." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

According to the Dutch housing policy for the elderly independent living is the future way of life: stay at home longer when you get older. As a consequence the aging population in the Netherlands indeed lives less in institutions the last years. The general insight is that aging residents prefer to stay independent at their own home. 

However it is known the aging population process is the largest in the periphery of the Netherlands. This might be no problem as in general the dwellings in rural areas seems suitable, in the sense that a residence is accessible and through accessible without climbing stairs to the main dwelling rooms. The main challenge for the elderly in these areas is –if this is needed- the care and support at home. 

In general the moving mobility in the Netherlands is rather low, especially among the elderly and in particular among older owner-occupiers. As a consequence older owner-occupiers live independently for longer than tenants. Older owner-occupiers and tenants live on average more than twenty years in the same neighbourhood whereas owner-occupiers of 65 years and older even live five years longer in the same area. Precisely this last group -mostly living in a land-bound property- strongly increases in the Netherlands the last years. 

Therefore our first research question is: Why stay in your own dwelling in a peripheral area if you ‘re getting older and might be in need of care or have to deal with a diminishing health? Are older homeowners more attached to their home in the course of time or are they forced to stay because of the declining housing prices in these regions?

The second question concerns the homeowner who decides to stay in the region independently as long as possible. How can you manage to stay at your own home if you live at the countryside and need care? Which needs do aging people have to live longer independently in their own home? Which ICT and smart home technology do they –according to themselves-  need now and in future?

Our study aims to contribute to the research on the motivations of older owner-occupiers in peripheral regions of the Netherlands for staying independent at their own home as long as possible. Another goal is to improve the living conditions of aging people maybe with help of smart home technology and house adjustments so they live independently as long as possible in their own home.

First of all we want to declare why older owner-occupiers stay in a peripheral or depopulating region. Why would they stay in a region with less facilities? 

We use a mixed-methods approach for data collection starting with desk research, data-analysis of e.g. the European Quality of Life Survey, focus group discussion and semi-structured interviews with aging people living in different regions in the Netherlands. 

Our results show that the majority of the interviewees mostly has no problems with independent living. According to themselves they have adequate solutions for staying at  home as long as possible. Most respondents have a positive attitude towards ICT-adjustments and smart home technology to overcome moving difficulties, feeling comfortable and save at home now and in the future.

From the results we conclude that most of the interviewed respondents -according to themselves- are well equipped, prefer to stay independent at their own home and don’t want to move to an institution.

Advise to the Dutch government is to support the older residents of the rural regions to stay at their own homes maybe with help of smart home technology. For sustainability of the communities in these peripheral areas (access to) fast Internet is the most important condition. This will help to improve the regional development and attractiveness of areas that are effected by depopulation. 

Ding, Hsiu-Yin. "An analysis on land price after land readjustment." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Land readjustment is a tool for land assembly so as to provide buildable land and infrastructures for urban development. After land readjustment, it is supposed that lots of land will be supplied to the land market, and this might lead to mitigate the shortage of land supply and speed urban development in peri-urban area. However, most pieces of land are returned to landowners, who decide to supply the land or not. In this paper, if landowners either sell or develop their land after land readjustment immediately is going to be examined. Moreover, how land readjustment affects the land price will be analyzed as well. The case of Tucheng land readjustment project in New Taipei City will be studied for answering these two questions.
Frömel, Pascal. "An Auction-Based Perspective on Takeovers of Real Estate Investment Trusts." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. A large fraction of takeover deals among US equity real estate investment trusts (EREITs) are settled via auction procedures with a substantial number of bidders involved. The valuation of targets in mergers has been examined by the general finance literature and has also been investigated on the basis of stock price movements and publicly observable target characteristics for samples of real estate investment trusts throughout the last decade. However, conventional estimation techniques widely neglect the competitive process which is taking place in advance of the deal. Thus, the existing evidence is mainly based on final outcomes and the obtained results suffer from endogeneity through the neglected impact of the underlying sales-mechanism. The present study estimates the valuation determinants in acquisitions of REITs using an empirical auction model. The hand-collected dataset comprises REIT takeover auctions of the 2000-2017 period. The approach allows to incorporate Information of the entire bidding process and provides a distinct perspective on the public and private bidders involved. We find valuation patterns for bidders in auctions of REITs to be much more homogenous, compared to those of bidders for targets of other industries. We do not find a significant divergence of public and private bidders, as opposed to the evidence for non-REIT corporates. Inference on the determinants of target valuation suggests a significant valuation impact of typical firm-level financial variables and of the macroeconomic environment. The findings are robust to alternative premium measures and further testing. A comparison of the auction-based approach and conventional estimation procedures is provided.
Cooke, Howard, Rianne Appel-Meulenbroek, and Theo Arentze. "An Investigation of the Operation of Corporate Real Estate Decision Making." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The importance of CRE decision-making, in particular the link through to the strategic decision making of the firm, has been recognised in a number of papers over the last 30 years. However, whilst some papers have focussed on the alignment of CRE and others on specific issues such as acquisitions, there is a paucity of research on the CRE decision-making process itself and the behaviour of the decision-maker. 

A semi-structured interview technique (Causal Network Elicitation Technique) is used to investigate the Mental Representation adopted by CRE decision-makers when faced with a particular scenario. The technique uses Decision Network, an extension of Bayesian Belief Network methodology, as a mechanism for making inferences. A Causal Network is developed to identify, decision, situational, attribute and benefit variables, together with utility weights to represent the Mental Representation of the decision maker’s decision.

Aliefendioglu, Yesim, Rodrigue Bazame, and Harun Tanrivermis. "Analysis of Housing Turnover Frequency and the Factors Affecting Residential Mobility: A Case of Çankaya District of Ankara Province, Turkey." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

In the analysis of real estate markets, criteria such as sales volume, transaction frequency and vacancy rate in a certain period of time are frequently used, and mobility analysis and development trends are used. In other saying, to analyse real estate market dynamism concept like as the real estate stock, sales amount, vacancy rate or whether the same property has been handed over more than once within a certain time period are used. Although the levels and movements of real estate market prices have been subject to many researches, there are few studies on the propensity of real estate turnover  (Fisher et al., 2004). Real estate sales or turnover frequency provide important information about the condition of local, regional or national markets. In researches on the real estate turnover frequency, the current housing sales and the demand for new housing are considered in the first lace (Jaffee and Rosen 1979, Thom 1985, Stein 1995, Dieleman 2001, Rady and Ortalo-Magne 2001). 
According to Fisher et al. (2004), frequency of real estate turnover depends on market conditions (such as economic, demographic, financial, taxation instruments and legal regulations), characteristics of properties and the socio-economic status of the occupant. In order to understand the frequency and causes of housing turnover, the expectations of households and firms and their development strategies should be understood in advance. While the change of residence for household expectations is generally perceived as a response to the change in household demand, housing turnover is considered to be associated with the choice of residence to adapt to the change in household size, household income or living standards (Turner 1968). Along with this, Rietveld (1984) emphasised that there is a mutual relationship between housing vacancy and housing turnover frequency in the housing market. Therefore, the vacancy rate in housing stock affects the propensity household to move and at the same time the propensity of changing housing is affected by the vacancy rate. 

In this study, the macroeconomic variables and the development of housing sales in Turkey were evaluated in general and a macro-analysis of housing sales frequency was conducted. In the second stage, housing turnover frequency and the factors affecting it have been analysed in a selected district in the light of official data and survey results. The housing purchase and sales data of the last 20 years in the Çankaya district, where the number of dwellings and households is highest in Ankara and where households from all socioeconomic groups live, and the period of possession of the dwelling have been examined. The high frequency of housing turnover and the short period of possession within the district boundaries and the development trends in the neighbourhood scale were examined according to the results of the field observations. A survey was conducted on people who bought and sold houses in the district in the last year to collect micro data that could have influenced the reasons for housing sales and purchases and handover frequency and these were analysed. According to the results of the micro-analysis, it was determined that the factors affecting the housing turnover frequency were urban development trends, comfort perception, proximity to school or workplace, household requirements and other factors. The research results provide important clues to the decision-making bodies in terms of perceiving the dynamics of the housing market.

Engerstam, Sviatlana, and Rosane Hungria-Gunnelin. "Analysis of risk shifts in the co-working environments." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Co-working is a raising global trend in office property markets. Sweden is one of these markets experiencing a huge expansion of co-working. Though the share of co-working spaces is still quite small in comparison to the whole property market, the growth dynamics propels real estate actors to develop new business models that in turn raise the necessity for the analysis of risks associated with these models.

When office premises are rented in a traditional way, the landlord often requires a bank guarantee from the tenant. The bank guarantee is a risk hedging tool against risks associated with the company growth, profitability, especially in the case of a new establishment like startup companies.  The bank guarantee amount normally equals a certain number of monthly rental payments and is used when the company cannot pay the rents. In Sweden, traditional rental contracts for office space vary between three to five years and are signed by the landlord and the tenant, who is the final user of the space rented.

In the case of co-working, office premises are often not rented directly to the final user, but rather indirectly through operation companies . Example of such companies are WeWork, United spaces, Workaround, etc, who sign very short rental contracts with the end user of the premise. The rentals based on a short-term contract that is not subject to bank guarantee, often implies greater risk in comparison to longer rental contracts. How do different property market actors like banks, landlord and tenants evaluate these risks? Are there any risk shifts connected to business cycles, type of tenant, industry and other factors? This paper aims to provide answers to these questions.

Descriptive approach and interviews with local actors as a main method of analysis is used in this paper. The result of this paper presents the framework of risks shifts in the co-working environment, which contributes to the existing research by providing a deeper understanding of this emerging trend and its implications. 

Müller, Philipp Maximilian. "Application of machine learning in real estate transactions – automation of due diligence processes based on digital building documentation." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

To minimize risks and increase transparency, every company needs reliable information. The quality and completeness of digital building documentation is more and more a factor as “deal maker” and “deal breaker” in real estate transactions. However, there is a fundamental lack of instruments for leveraging internal data and a risk of overlooking the essentials.

In real estate transactions, the parties generally have just a few weeks for due diligence (DD). A large variety of Documents needs to be elaborately prepared and make available in data rooms. As a result, gaps in the documentation may remain hidden and can only be identified with great effort. Missing documents may result in high purchase price discounts. Therefore, investors are increasingly using a data-driven approach to gain essential knowledge in transaction processes. Digital technologies in due diligence processes should help to reduce existing information asymmetries and sustain data-supported decisions.

The paper describes an approach to automate Due Diligence processes with a focus on Technical Due Diligence (TDD) using Machine Learning (ML), esp. Information Extraction. The overall aim is to extract relevant information from building-related documents to generate a semi-automated report on the structural (and environmental) condition of properties.

The contribution examines due diligence reports on more than twenty office and retail properties. More than ten different companies generated the reports between 2006 and 2016. The research work provides a standardized TDD reporting structure which will be of relevance for both research and practice. To define relevant information for the report, document classes are reviewed and contained data prioritized. Based on this, various document classes are analyzed and relevant text passages are segmented. A framework is developed to extract data from the documents, store it and provide it in a standardized form. Moreover the current use of Machine Learning in DD processes, the research method and framework used for the automation of TDD and its potential benefits for transactions and risk management are presented.

Fuerst, Franz, and Marco Felici. "Are Homeowners Irrational Investors? The Effect of Housing Tenure on Household Investment Allocation in the United Kingdom." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The importance of housing tenure on individuals’ behaviour is widely recognised and studied. Arguably, one aspect that is crucial, with wide-ranging implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and possibly for economic inequality, is the effect of housing on the portfolio composition of households, and more specifically how the fact of being a homeowner, as compared to a renter or a mortgagor, affects portfolio efficiency. We first explore this question theoretically, using a mean-variance framework adjusted for the presence of housing in the portfolio. We then turn to UK data from the Wealth and Assets Survey to confirm empirically the predictions of the model: the five waves of the survey allow to break down households' portfolios in detail, as well as to account for a wide range of covariates and for individual unobserved heterogeneity.

Wu, Yi, and Sotiris Tsolacos. "Assessing forecast gains from ‘deep learning’ over time-series methodologies." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

There is a plethora of standard time series techniques for time series forecasting including ARIMA, ARIMAX, Spectral Analysis and Decomposition. A requirement for the application of these techniques is some degree of correlation in the series (eg the AR terms) and past effects from innovations. These properties imply that each observation is partially predictable from previous observations, from previous random spikes, or from both. An obvious assumption made is that the correlations inherent in the data set have been adequately modeled. Thus after a model has been built, any leftover variations (residuals) are considered i.i.d, independent and normally distributed with mean zero and constant variance over time. There is no further information from the residuals that can be used in the model. Implicit in these techniques is the notion that existing patterns in the time series will continue into the future. 

These standard techniques work well for short-term prediction, but do not prove to be effective in capturing the characteristics of data in longer period. ARIMA for instance gives more importance to immediate data points in the test set and tries to perform well for them but as we get far we see a larger variance in the predicted output.  

Due to the dynamic nature of the time series data often these assumptions are not met when there is non-linear autocorrelation in the series. Non-linearities in the data can be efficiently addressed with Deep Learning Techniques. Time series data are often subject to sequence dependence problem, which Deep Learning Techniques such as RNN can resolve as they are adaptive in nature.  Other variants of Deep Learning such as LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) and GRU (Gated Recurrent Units) which can easily be trained based on long-term period to pick up the true dynamics of series and achieve better modeling and forecast results. 

Investors and real estate analysts are increasingly coming across of Deep Learning methods for market analysis and portfolio construction. We investigate potential forecast gains arising from the adoption of these models over conventional time-series models. We make use of the monthly data-series at the city level in the Europe produced by RCA. We are interested both in directional and point forecasts. The forecast evaluation takes place over different time horizons and with the application of conventional forecast assessment metrics including Diebold Mariano.

Brunauer, Wolfgang, and Robert Wieser. "Assessing regional house price developments in Austria." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Austrian house prices have risen rapidly in recent years and there has been considerable debate on the underlying factors. Much of the debate focuses on increasing trends in real house price indexes and the ratio of house prices to disposable income as a measure of affordability. While it is generally accepted that the low interest rate environment is a key driver of house prices, there is uncertainty as of the sustainability of the level of house prices in some European countries. The OeNB fundamental indicator for residential property prices, launched in January 2014, points to an overvaluation in property prices by 21.7% in Vienna in the first quarter of 2018. For Austria as a whole, the indicator reached 11.2%. Several international studies also point to overvaluation in Austrian housing markets.

House prices can fluctuate more than fundamentally justified because agents overreact to current fundamentals as well as past returns and are influenced by their sentiment. Reliable valuation metrics are therefore very important for monitoring residential property markets. While different approaches to identify overvaluation have strengths and weaknesses, theoretical consistency should be a prerequisite of any model of house price behaviour. Furthermore, examining national price indices is an ineffective means of early detection of housing bubbles. Speculative overvaluations arise in individual local and regional markets before spreading to the national market.

This paper analyses regional house price developments in Austria. We follow Bourassa et al. (2016) and use an asset pricing approach to compare actual price levels with implied fundamental or equilibrium levels. We model prices for existing condominiums as a function of the present value of expected market rents, allowing for a time-varying risk premium and state dependent rental growth expectations. Model results are then compared with results produced by alternative methods to assess house price developments. We also discuss the theoretical weaknesses of the OeNB fundamental indicator and the critical assumptions underlying our model.

Eves, Chris. "Assessing the investment performance of residential suburbs subject to aircraft noise." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

An increasingly important issue facing developing cities is the requirement for more airports or more development of existing airports to cater for the increasing level of business, leisure and tourism air travel.

In several major international cities, the airport is located in residential areas that have developed after the construction of the airport, with development further from the actual airport now under aircraft flight paths. In such residential affected suburbs, the issue of aircraft noise is raised, with an emphasis on the impact on property prices and values.

There have been numerous research papers addressing the impact on price based on hedonic price models, with most of these studies showing a decline in prices for affected houses, and a smaller number of studies showing that location close to a major airport can result in higher prices due to the employment opportunities provided by major airports such as Heathrow, London.

Although these studies have focussed on possible decreases or increases in house prices due to aircraft noise, there have been limited studies in relation to the long-term investment performance of houses under, adjoining or in view of aircraft flight paths and subject to aircraft noise.

This paper analyses the residential property sales for 53 suburbs in Brisbane over the period 1988-2017 to assess the investment performance of these suburbs. The suburb selection includes those directly under the existing runway flight paths, several suburbs adjoining existing flight paths, and a range of suburbs that are currently not subject to aircraft noise but will be under the flight paths of the proposed second runway at Brisbane Airport that is under construction.

The results show the long-term capital return based on median and average house prices, the long-term volatility and risk/return ratios for each suburb. These are compared based on the level of noise affectations.

Zhang, Yu, and Donald Haurin. "Attitudes Toward and Perceptions of the Ambiguity of House and Stock Prices." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This study estimates individuals' attitudes toward and perceptions of ambiguity of house prices and stock prices, using experiment data from the Rand American Life Panel (ALP) survey. We estimate two important parameters in multiple prior models and α-MaxMin ambiguity preferences: the degree of ambiguity aversion and the degree of confidence in the reference prior distribution of future prices, this being a measurement of the perceived level of ambiguity. Regarding attitudes, we find that individuals are slightly ambiguity seeking with regard to house prices while they are slightly ambiguity averse with regard to stock prices. Their degree of confidence in the reference distribution for stocks is lower than for house prices. We also find that increased state-level house price volatility during the past year and growth of house price in the past three years increase perceived ambiguity. Moreover, ambiguity matters in that ambiguity-averse renters are less likely to buy a house. Correspondingly, ambiguity-averse stock investors tend to have less stock holdings. 

Despotovic, Miroslav, David Koch, and Sascha Leiber. "Automatic extraction of condition-specific visual characteristics from buildings." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The value of a property is influenced by a number of factors such as location, year of construction, area used, etc. In particular, the classification of the condition of a building plays an important role in this context, since each real estate actor (expert, broker, etc.) perceives the condition individually. This paper investigates automatic extraction of condition-specific visual characteristics from buildings using indoor and outdoor images as well as automatic classification of condition classes. This is a complex task because an object of interest can appear at different positions within the image. In addition, an object of interest and/or the building can be captured from different distances and perspectives and under different weather and lighting conditions. Furthermore,  the classification method applied with the convolutional neural network, as described in this paper, requires a large amount of input data. The forecast results of the neural network are promising and show accuracy rates between 67 and 81% using various set-up constellations. The described method has a high development potential in the scientific as well as in the practical sense. The results are technically innovative and should, apart from research relevant contribution, make a practical contribution to future automation-supported real estate valuation procedures. The primary aim of this work is to stimulate the development of new scientifically relevant methods and questions in this direction.
Piazolo, Daniel. "Automation probability within the German real estate industry due to digitalization: A calculation of the size of the job killer aspect of digitalization gilded with an optimistic outlook due to the job engine aspect." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Through a combination of various sources about employment data, insights about the probability of the risk of automation of real estate jobs within Germany can be derived. Sources are: 1.) BerufeNET data base of the German federal employment agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit), 2.) JobFutoromat database with the estimation of automation probabilities of across-the-board occupations, 3.) Lists with the number of employees subject to social insurance on an occupation group level. Consequently, a weighted average of the automation probability of jobs within each occupational group and within the overall real estate sector of Germany can be derived. Thus the negative side of digitalization will be quantified (i.e. the job killer aspect). Since Germany is the largest economy within the European Union, some of the insights can be transferred to the European level. The paper also discusses, that the novel possibilities through the use of digital tools like artificial intelligence will create new employment possibilities within the various real estate areas. The challenges are addressed how to localize and to quantify the specific positive effect of digitalization (i.e. the job engine).
Johnson, Lynn. "AVMs: An international comparison of the opportunities and challenges." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The definition of AVM has been disputed across academia with a number of references excluding the inclusion of human interaction suggesting that models need to work independently from a professional. RICS describe an AVM (2008) ‘as one or more mathematical techniques to provide an estimate of value of a specified property at a specified date, accompanied by a measure of confidence in the accuracy of the result, without human intervention post initiation.’ 

An AVM is a mathematical model operated through computer software to determine Market Value or Market Rent of a property.  There are several types of AVM including Artificial Neural Networks and Multiple Regression Analysis. According to Susskind and Susskind (2015) the professions are becoming antiquated, opaque, no longer affordable and unsustainable in an era of increasingly capable expert systems. This sentiment would appear to be spreading within the real estate world Property Technology or Proptech is now a term which features heavily in real estate press, professional bodies and to some extent academia. RICS, in their 2017 publication on the impact of emerging technologies on the surveying profession and subsequent (2017) paper into the future of valuation, the latter of which considers how the valuation process is undertaken and managed. It identifies two main issues or disruptors, technological developments and changing client expectations, both of which may provide increased pressure for the profession to adopt AVMs in both residential and commercial real estate. As Klaus Schwab, the founder and executive chair of the World Economic forum stated in 2016 there is a revolution which is fundamentally altering the way we live and work it is providing huge opportunities for business growth but also circumstances for disruptive innovation.

Most Research on AVMs has explored how they are employed in residential markets (see Boshoff & Kock, 2013). It is apparent that European countries such as Germany, Romania, Netherlands and most recently Sweden have all introduced AVM legislation to ensure quality and assurance within the current valuation processes (European Mortgage Federation, 2017).  However, there is little research into implementation of AVMs in commercial real estate. Gilbertson and Preston (2005) believed that this was due to the lack of transparency and accurate data available for commercial property transactions. A salient point established by Boshoff and De Kock (2013) is that many professionals consider commercial valuations as intricate, commercial property is classed as heterogeneous and not easily fungible (in comparison to stocks and shares). Illustrating this complexity, recent research carried out by Amidu and Boyd (2017) suggests that when commercial real estate professionals undertake valuations, they are problem solvers. They tend to use their own tacit knowledge and expertise of markets.
There are opportunities and challenges for all involved with commercial real estate valuations.  However, challenges may outweigh the opportunities and many questions remain unanswered. Do AVMs provide the level of certainty needed by clients? Will they be prone to fraudulent activity? Most importantly what level of accuracy can be achieved? As Amidu and Boyd (2017) argue commercial real estate professionals are problem solvers and use tacit knowledge.   Are these challenges International or wholly attributed to the UK markets?

The aim of this research is to consider the differences in the challenges and opportunities of AMVs Internationally. 

Zheng, Mo, Han-Suck Song, and Fredrik Armerin. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall: an empirical comparison using non-parametric and parametric models." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The Swedish real estate sector index services as a guideline and general indicator of the performance of the real estate industry, events such global financial crisis, the European debt crisis cause unprecedentedly high uncertainty and volatility. There is a need to understand and search for an appropriate method to deal with Value-at-risk and expected shortfall which comprehensively covers unconditional and conditional risk models with various estimation window and significance level. 

In this paper, we apply nonparametric, parametric and semiparametric methods such as historical simulation and filtered historical simulation; RiskMetrics; GARCH-type models and GARCH together with extreme value theory. The result is still in process, the draft paper will be submitted within the deadline. 

Muldoon-Smith, Kevin, Paul Greenhalgh, and Malcolm Frodsham. "Beyond natural vacancy: evidencing vacancy throughout market segments." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Commercial real estate vacancy is a key indicator of property market efficiency, economic performance and urban resilience. However, there has been little conceptual reflection into the abstract notion of vacancy beyond binary distinctions of natural and structural vacancy. Although useful simplifying meta-concepts, neither accounts for the internal complexity and imperfection that permeates real commercial property markets. In response, this paper builds upon a conceptual framework that describes vacancy across the commercial real estate building life-cycle – from initial construction to final demolition and redevelopment. It substantiates the vacancy typology with existing data sets published by government organisations and market information. The originality of the research rests in its utility as the first known evidence based holistic examination of commercial real estate vacancy beyond that of an abstract economic factor.
Cajias, Marcelo. "Can a machine understand real estate pricing? – Evaluating machine learning approaches with big data." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

In the era of internet and digitalization real estate prices of dwellings are predominantly collected live by multiple listing services and merged with supporting data such as spatio-temporal geo-information. Despite the computational requirements for analyzing such large datasets, the methods for analyzing big data have evolved substantially and go much far beyond the traditional regression. In this context, the usage of machine learning technologies for analyzing prices in the real estate industry is not commonplace. This paper applies machine learnings algorithms on a data set of more than 3 Mio. observations in the German residential market to explore the predicting accuracy of methods such as the random forests regressions, XGboost and the stacked regression among others. The results show a significant reduction in the forecasting variance and confirm that artificial intelligence understands real estate prices much deeper.

Bodenbender, Mario, and Björn-Martin Kurzrock. "Challenges in Machine Learning for Document Classification in the Real Estate Industry." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Data rooms are becoming more and more important for the real estate industry. They permit the creation of protected areas in which a variety of relevant documents are typically made available to interested parties. In addition to supporting purchase and sales processes, they are used primarily in larger construction projects.

The structures and index designations of data rooms have not yet been uniformly regulated on an international basis. Data room indices are created based on different types of approaches and thus the indices also diverge in terms of their depth of detail as well as in the range of topics. In practice, rules already exist for structuring documentation for individual phases, as well as for transferring data between these phases. Since all of the documentation must be transferable when changing to another life cycle phase or participant, the information must always be clearly identified and structured in order to enable the protection, access and administration of this information at all times. This poses a challenge for companies because the documents are subject to several rounds of restructuring during their life cycle, which are not only costly, but also always entail the risk of data loss. The goal of current research is therefore a seamless storage as well as a permanent and unambiguous classification of the documents over the individual life cycle phases.

In the field of text classification, machine learning offers considerable potential in the sense of reduced workload, process acceleration and quality improvement. In data rooms, machine learning (in particular document classification) is used to automatically classify the documents contained in the data room or the documents to be imported and assign them to a suitable index point. In this manner, a document is always classified in the class to which it belongs with the greatest probability (ex: due to word frequency). 

An essential prerequisite for the success of machine learning for document classification is the quality of the document classes as well as the training data. When defining the document classes, it must be guaranteed on the one hand that these do not overlap in terms of their content, so that it is possible to clearly allocate the documents thematically. On the other hand, it must also be possible to consider documents that may appear later and be able to scale the model according to the requirements. For the training and test set, as well as for the documents to be analyzed later, the quality of the respective documents and their readability are also decisive factors. In order to effectively analyze the documents, the content must also be standardized and it must be possible to remove non-relevant content in advance.

Based on the empirical analysis of 8,965 digital documents of fourteen properties from eight different owners, the paper presents a model with more than 1,300 document classes as a basis for an automated structuring and migration of documents in the life cycle of real estate. To validate these classes, machine learning algorithms were learned and analyzed to determine under which conditions and how the highest possible accuracy of classification can be achieved. Stemmer and stop word lists used specifically for these analyses were also developed for this purpose. Using these lists, the accuracy of a classification is further increased by machine learning, since they were specifically aligned to terms used in the real estate industry.

The paper also shows which aspects have to be taken into account at an early stage when digitizing extensive data/document inventories, since automation using machine learning can only be as good as the quality, legibility and interpretability of the data allow.

Lo, Chien-Ling. "Chronological study of municipal governance on sustainable development of office market in Manchester through urban regeneration." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. This paper intends to expand the important debate on the state-market relations highlighting the role of municipal governance in urban regeneration that shapes and stimulates the sustainable development of office market in Manchester through regeneration strategies since the 1960s. This research focuses on the government leadership of key Council leaders’ decision-making process that extends the focus from local planning authorities as market actors (Huerkens, 2015; Adams, 2010) to the political leaders. This research aims to fill the gap of lacking sufficient discussions on the role of municipal leadership in moulding property market through regeneration policy. Also the construction of new regeneration office index sheds light on the market impact of planning policies in sustainable development. Three research methods were employed in this research: firstly, critical assessing the secondary documents such as government planning reports; secondly, conducting semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders; thirdly, a regeneration office database was used to cross-examine the market impact of regeneration policies on its performance over time. The primary findings are (1) The key political leaders and the chief executive had a significant influence and power over the direction of regeneration strategies since there is a close link between a strong leadership and a clear vision. (2) There is a positive connection between a strong leadership and effective policy implementation, which results in planning permissions being granted more speedily for proposed developments. (3) Consequently, it increases the level of certainty and market confidence among developer and investors, which affects the market performance. This research indicates there is positive connectivity between the local planning policies and property market behaviour adding rich insights to the debate on state-market relations in urban regeneration. It also demonstrates that the analysis of leadership in local government helps explain the complex relationships between policy formulation, policy implementation and policy outcomes.
Warsame, Abukar, and Sviatlana Engerstam. "Co-working spaces impact on CBD office spaces." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The level of rents and property values play a major role in defining different types of urban structures. A central business district (CBD) is often associated with high rents and high property values and subsequently tall buildings are constructed in order to offset high land prices. The expansion of co-working space market seems to have impact on the traditional office markets that were mostly located in CBDs. An increase of co-working spaces and their locations might lead to less concentration of traditional office spaces in central locations and thus transformation of urban structures is expected.   

Most of the studies in the co-working spaces focus on productivity of users and flexibility of the shared working space but not on the long term consequence of dynamic impact of co-working spaces on the existing urban structure.  The aim of this paper is to explore the transformation of urban structures triggered by the spread of co-working space in the Stockholm region. This study is mainly descriptive based on the data of recent development of co-working spaces and their locations. We will also complement our analysis with a case study and interviews of major actors in the office markets. 

We expect the rents and property values of existing locations will be affected by the concentration of co-working spaces in new urban areas. Subsequently, more segmented office markets with lower density can be expected to emerge in the long run.

Vrensen, Hans, and Irene Fosse. "Commercial real estate mortgage margins: A Pan European study." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Loan margins should reflect the risks lenders are willing to accept on the commercial real estate loans they make. Also, having a large scale, stable and low cost funding channel through covered bond issuance or syndication should benefit commercial real estate lenders in providing lower margin lending to borrowers and compete for a larger market share. This study addresses what drives lenders’ loan margins offered on a range of different European commercial real estate loans. Using internal commercial mortgage loan data over the 2012-2018 period substituted with additional data from external sources, we test several possible drivers for loan pricing, such as country risk, collateral risk, borrower business plan and lenders funding costs. With our analysis we try to show that commercial real estate lenders with large covered bond funding programs offer margins that are on average below other lenders, ceteris paribus.
Toschka, Adrian, Anton Jung, Ritika Batra, and Annette Kaempf-Dern. "Corporate Real Estate Management." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Purpose: Flexibility and mobility reflect a changing work culture in today’s world emphasizing more on employees and their well-being. With the war for talents becoming increasingly crucial in providing the optimal organizational system, exploring the concept of New-Work becomes highly relevant. However, many corporates still work with traditional approaches and lack in making their organizations more flexible such as offering the options of home office or leasing Flexible Office Spaces (FOS) for project teams. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to make the existing research about home office and FOS/Co-working comparable to develop a mutual, scientific basis for sustainable decisions.

Design/methodology/approach: An extensive qualitative literature review of more than 30 scientific papers has been conducted, comparing their research aspects, significant differences in scientific approaches adopted, and findings. Subsequently, current surveys and office work figures in Germany are analysed to predict potential flexible forms of working for the Commercial Real Estate industry.

Findings: The qualitative analysis makes the common ground of the existing research visible. However, without regards of the specific needs of the individual corporate, no recommendation for a workplace strategy can be given. Therefore, before using any study on the topic for a strategic decision, corporates have to clarify their specific needs to develop and implement a workplace strategy that fits best to their organizational structure.

Originality/value: The paper addresses corporates who, in the spirit of ‘New Work’, would make their working conditions more flexible and benefit from an overview of existing research in the commercial real estate industry, which still underestimates the consequences of FOS.

Jylha, Tuuli, Andreas Pfnür, and Herman Vande Putte. "Corporate Real Estate Management (CREM) on the Way from Buzzword to Concept – A Comparative Analysis of Two CREM Concepts." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Corporate Real Estate Management (CREM) has been intensively discussed in research and practice since the 1990s. Nevertheless, empirical studies show that it has remained a buzzword rather than a concept to this day. In particular, questions about the theoretical background have not yet been answered unequivocally. Neither is there a complete model of the impact relationships of CREM nor a uniform concept for the organization of real estate management tasks in non-property companies. As a first step, two different CREM concepts of the TU Delft and the TU Darmstadt will be classified in their development according to their respective purpose and derived conceptually. The very different concepts are then compared using a catalogue of criteria.   

The findings show that there are similarities and dissimilarities between the two concepts. Both concepts highlight that there is a user that needs real estate as an operational asset, i.e. the demand side, and a supplier of real estate and related services, i.e. the supply side. The differences between the two concepts are mainly in the emphases of the different parts. For example, the concept of TU Delft pays attention to the physical and technical dimension of real estate, whereas the concept of TU Darmstadt emphasises the role of the financial resource in the conception of a match between corporate real estate demand and supply.

The paper provides an in-depth analysis of the two CREM concepts, contributing a way to see and discuss the similarities and differences of these two concepts. The value is not to nominate a best concept, but to provide an analysis that helps researchers and practitioners find an interpretation that fits their purpose. The comparison of two CREM concepts contributes to the theoretical foundation of operational real estate management. CREM is thus taken a step further on its way from a buzzword to a concept.

Julies, Linda, Rianne Appel-Meulenbroek, Astrid Kemperman, and Theo Arentze. "Corporate Real Estate Management activities and skills." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Corporate Real Estate Management (CREM) has evolved since Joroff developed his seminal framework of CREM evolution in the 1990s. According to this evolution, each stage forward adds additional activities to the job of a CREM department in their search for added strategic value and alignment. Along the five stages CREM departments move from a more operational towards a more strategic role. More recent research has shown that not all CRE departments have reached the highest step on the evolutionary ladder (the Business strategist stage). It remains unclear whether they might not want to do so or just lack the skills to perform the necessary activities.

The aim of this study was therefore to identify the necessary skills for important CREM activities for each evolutionary stage. Data was collected through a survey among 53 members of the Dutch network of CRE executives (CREME). Findings show that strategic CREM departments are more inclined to pursue employee satisfaction and –productivity, increasing innovation and promoting marketing & sales, while their operational counterpart aim more often at cost reduction, asset value, increasing flexibility and sustainability. Regarding important CREM activities, strategic CREM executives state portfolio management, strategic planning, contract and property management as most important, while their operational counterparts are focused more on administrative/financial management, acquisition & disposition and performance measurement. When identifying specific skills for their activities, again strategic CREM executives choose different skills than their operational counterparts for each activity.

The results of this research are useful for CREM in practice, but also for improving the content of real estate courses at universities and in practice. Future studies could identify time spend on activities and how skills improve actual performance of CREM departments.

Seger, Julian, and Andreas Pfnür. "Corporate real estate specificity, ownership and its contribution to firm performance: empirical evidence from the German capital market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Since decades, the choice between ownership, leasing or renting in corporate real estate management has been discussed in numerous articles. The studies have mainly focused on demonstrating the negative effects of ownership on the capital market performance of non-property companies. A wide variety of influencing factors has been identified, which demonstrably determine the real estate ownership strategy as well as its valuation by the capital market. The reliance of the ownership decision on the real estate specificity instead, has been explained by its strategic importance, but in the course of a theoretical, resource based approach only. This one-dimensional view misses possible consequences for other company divisions though. A further complicating factor is that the strategic value of specific resources, which is a major motive in favor of ownership decisions, is strongly dependent on business environmental changes. In times of structural change and increasing uncertainty, this could cause investments in specific real estate to be  withheld or even alternatives to ownership to be considered. This paper aims at filling this research gap by using German balance sheet and capital market data to prove the linkage between specificity and ownership intensity by taking environmental dynamics into account  and to show potential effects on the capital market performance.

The article begins with a literature-based derivation of the concept of specificity focusing on the theory of the firm on the one hand and its role in corporate finance on the other. The impact of ownership, leasing or rental solutions in the case of specific real estate can be operationalised by using a framework of Pfnuer/Seger (2018). In the following multivariate regression analysis, the influence of real estate specificity on the intensity of ownership is tested while also environmental dynamics are considered. The valuation of the capital market is examined using the Fama-French factor model.

The article points out on a theoretical level that ownership of specific real estate is not only based on its strategic importance. Moreover, questions of corporate finance and changes in the business environment are also relevant. Empirical evidence confirms the positive correlation between specificity and ownership strategy. In addition, the analysis provides information on the influence of specificity and ownership strategy on capital market performance.

The paper expands the scientific discourse by explicitly linking real estate specificity with the choice between ownership, leasing or rental solutions and corporate success. The article concludes that the irreversibility of specific real estates should be considered in the ownership decision in order to avoid inefficiencies. This especially accounts for firms which operate in a structurally changing business environment.

Memis, Halil, and Steffen Sebastian. "Currency Hedging for International Real Estate Portfolios." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The aim of this thesis is to examine the role of real estate investments in the global financial system. The comprehensive investment spectrum conditional on currency-unhedged and fully hedged portfolios is conducted on 23 individual assets from the perspective of three major economies -- the euro, pound sterling, and the U.S. dollar. The approach used in the analysis provides a high information content as it distinguishes between the sources of diversification benefits in a statistically significant way. The econometric analysis shows that internationally diversifying a portfolio is superior to a domestic investment. The strongest evidence thereof is found in global bonds during bear markets, while diversification properties for international stocks are detected in bull markets. Global real estate investments are in fact powerful diversifiers as long as exchange rate risk is fully hedged. Overall, the findings confirm that global investing with hedged positions are valuable investments from the perspective of diversification.
Aliefendioglu, Yesim, Rodrigue Bazame, Amani Uisso, and Harun Tanrivermis. "Current Practices and Issues of Land Readjustment in Turkey and the Requirements for Value-based Approach Adoption." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Management of urban development processes is closely linked to urban land management and policy. Many tools such as zoning applications, zoning rights transfer, expropriation, and taxation can be applied together or separately in urban land management, and the success levels vary according to countries and settlements. In Turkey, as is the case in many other countries land readjustment is based on areal approach. According to this approach, zoning lots are created with zoning applications where up to 40% of the cadastral land area is deducted as development readjustment share and 10% share for public facilities under the Zoning Law No. 3194, and that this application has many shortcomings. 

Among these shortcomings, in general after the land readjustment (LR) area-based the increase in the value of building plots after the implementation is not at the same level, and in terms of wealth and value increasing. It was determined that an unfairness among owners. In another hand the value increase is very high in some of the cadastral parcels taken into a planning area, and much lower in some of them. This problem leads to objections by the right holders in a planning area and most of the plans, especially in big cities and coastal areas, are cancelled through the judicial process, and large delays in the completion of infrastructure services and construction activities cannot be prevented. Implementation of land readjustment works by providing equality on an area basis causes municipalities and other public institutions many problems in practice, and it is inevitable for citizens to experience unfairness caused by unfair distribution. It is foreseen that these problems can be eliminated by shifting from the area-based approach into value-based ones in zoning applications. In order to solve these problems, since the 80's, the necessity the adoption of land readjustment based on value approach has been emphasised in many policy documents, especially in development plans. In fact, despite many draft legislation having been prepared on this issue, none of these draft legislation prepared for different purposes have been passed and moved into the implementation stage. 

The Main advantages of the value-based land readjustment implementation are to cover the cost of implementation and to share with public authority the increment value of plots after the implementation. However, the value based approach requires the determination land values before and after the application, how much of the increased value increase will be allocated to the occupant, compensation for loss of rights and redistribution of zoning parcels principles in a clear and transparent manner. It also consists to develop efficient and productive use of zoning planning process, and especially the valuation methods and approaches to be fully integrated. 

In these circumstances, the theoretical basis of the application of value based LR and its implementation in selected countries were examined in the first step in the study. In a second step a survey-interview with Ankara Metropolitan and all district municipalities as well as other public institutions with zoning enforcement authority (such as the Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning, Housing Development Administration, Privatisation Administration) based the current situation and the need to adopt value based approach in land readjustment, policy recommendations was conducted. This approach was helpful in comparing value-based implementation opportunities in the implementation of zoning from the technical, financial, valuation, justice and human resources aspects. Based on the results of the study, the outlines of the duties, authorities and responsibilities of the real estate valuation experts were also put forward from the aspects of realisation of appraisal studies of the parcels and cadastral parcels to be formed after the land readjustment in accordance with objective and international valuation standards, analysis of property values to facilitate application, conducting detection of parameters that can affect the value directly or indirectly and impact points rationally. 

Gibilaro, Lucia, and Gianluca Mattarocci. "CW-REITS: A new asset class for the real estate industry?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

REITs are currently evaluating the opportunity to collect resources for the real estate investment through equity crowdfunding solutions and the US is the main market in which REIT equity  crowdfunding was adopted after the JOBS act, amending the Regulation A. The main advantage of the new real estate vehicle is the access to individuals with limited wealth that accept to invest in real estate investment vehicles not listed that are prevalently traded on line. The focus of the literature is prevalently on the cost savings offered by on line platforms that allow to achieve a net return of investment higher than other REITs due to the lower transaction costs that characterize the new asset class in the real estate industry.<br><br><br><br>The analysis considers all the e-REITs incorporated in the time period 2015-2018, collects data about the Net Asset Value and the dividend payments with a quarterly frequency data, and compares the performance of e-REITs and other REITs in the three year time horizon. Results show that the performance of e-REITs is more stable over time even if the monthly return is significantly lower than other REITs. The lack of correlation between the performance achieved by this new type of REITs and traditional REITs demonstrates their usefulness for diversification purposes and different expected advantages for including the new asset class in a diversified portfolio of financial assets.<br><br>

Wong, Woon Weng. "Debt and REIT performance: Evidence from Australia." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Firms finance operations in one of three ways: retained earnings, debt or the issuance of equity. The Australian REIT sector experienced phenomenal growth in the early 2000s outperforming the ASX200 as funds borrowed aggressively to fuel expansion. However, the sector collapsed during the financial crisis of 2007-09 which was due in part by its heavy reliance on debt and increased exposure to financial risk. Since then, the sector has recovered under a low interest environment while capital structures have been reconfigured through a combination of debt retirement and equity raisings.

This study aims to explore the relationship between debt and the performance of the REIT sector in Australia which is important as over AUD114bn are currently invested in the property sector via superannuation funds (pension funds) representing approximately 8 percent of total holdings.

Utilising panel data from the Australian market over a 20 year period spanning multiple economic cycles, REIT performance was found to have an inverse relationship to leverage even after controlling for factors such as market risk, inflation and economic growth. The adverse effects are further compounded with increasingly higher levels of gearing. Additionally funds with low interest coverage ability and insufficient free cash flows also exhibit greater exposure to gearing risk.

Zhukovskiy, Alexey, Ranoua Bouchouicha, and Heidi Falkenbach. "Debt flexibility and investment - evidence from European listed real estate companies." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. In this paper we examine the relationship between debt flexibility and investment. Employing a hand-collected sample of debt structures of 102 European public real estate companies, we construct measures of the companies’ ability to substitute bank loans with other forms of debt. Our results show that there is a statistically and economically significant effect of debt flexibility on the investment activity of European listed real estate companies, the effect increasing during times of tight bank lending constraints. We confirm that the effect is linked to the debt structure, rather than the general degree of indebtness (leverage) of the company and robust to alternative specifications and to controlling for the institutional differences between countries.
Lin, Jie. "Decoding the Governance of State Dominance and Market Instruments in China." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. China has been renowned for its successful economic reform within the institutional framework of socialist nation. Undoubtedly, land marketization is a most vital component. It is generally argued that the Chinese states have retreated to make the market mechanism dominant in governing economic development. However, there are increasing evidences implying that the Chinese states are still sustaining a strong control over the economic operation. The author thus identifies a different governance form of “state entrepreneurialism” with a salient feature of combing state dominance with market instruments to fulfill economic and political goals. In order to interpret these two seemingly contradictory tendencies, namely state control and marketization, a quantitative method of regression is applied to analyze the market-based transaction of industrial land. Through examining the industrial land market, the study recognizes a negative relationship between competition level of industrial land transactions and local economy as well as municipal finance. These empirical results contribute to demonstrate the proposed governance form of state dominance with market instruments. Moreover, it explains the reason of central-local stance disparity in market-based transaction of industrial land.
Fritz, Carsten, and Cay Oertel. "Dependency of Real Estate and International Financial Markets – A GARCH-Copula Approach to Model Extreme Market Risk." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The behaviour of single investment positions such as securitized real estate, stocks and bonds as well as the dependency between them are central topics in financial literature. Science as well as praxis are constantly seeking for improvements to model risk and returns of financial assets. With regard to the isolated behaviour of positions such as securitized real estate, the asset class shows characteristics, which cause Gaussian assumptions to fail. These include non-normality as well as serial correlation of return distributions. Thus, the extreme value theorem-driven GARCH modelling for volatility patterns is a feasible alternative to model single asset behaviour and its associated risk. Additionally to the isolated behaviour of single assets, the joint behaviour of securitized real estate and other asset classes has widely been discussed. With regard to these dependency features, challenging characteristics such as fat tail exposure, volatility clustering and non-linearity should be highlighted. Thus, the dependency modelling needs more flexible concepts, which allow for upper and lower tail dependency between the return distributions.

The paper will solve the above-named challenges by applying the so-called GARCH-EVT-Copula approach. Therefore, financial time series of securitized real estate as well as other asset classes will be individually modelled by classic GARCH models as well as its asymmetric peers including EGARCH, TGARCH, and PGARCH. By doing so, a the iid residuals will be extracted as the proxy for extreme market risk, since they represent the modelling error for each series. Subsequently the joint behaviour of the residuals is modelled by copulas to allow for extreme joint behaviour in the tail region of the distribution. We will then estimate the bivariate copula parameters to assess which kind of copula is the best-fitting type including different dependency structures such as archimedian, elliptical and especially asymmetric copulas. The fit will be assessed based on LL, AIC and BIC citeria. The named fit-parameters for each bivariate copula will reveal the characteristics of extreme market risk, represented by potentially asymmetric lower tail dependent copulas, to illustrate potentially extreme market risk for the joint behaviour.

Gupta, Ashish, Graeme Newell, Deepak Bajaj, and Satya N. Mandal. "Determinants of foreign and domestic non-listed real estate funds flow in India: An ARDL Approach." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Traditionally in India, real estate development was funded by High Net-worth Individuals (HNIs) through high-cost debt and equity. The opening of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in real estate in 2005, made non-listed real estate funds (NREFs) an important source of capital for Indian real estate development. During 2005 to 2015 foreign NREFs contributed more than three fourth (3/4th) of entire NREFs investment in the country. Foreign NREFs significantly contributed to increase transparency and corporate governance in Indian real estate sector. However, in times of volatility, especially after the global financial crisis of 2008 foreign NREFs became conservative. Domestic NREFs were the major investors in the market during this period. NREFs investment in real estate is impacted by the macroeconomic environment of the host country. Most of the literature focuses on the drivers of foreign investment and there is hardly any literature on domestic investment drivers. This study, in contrast, simultaneously evaluates the domestic and foreign NREFs drivers. Unlike many other Asian countries (like China, Singapore and Hong Kong) very limited previous research is available in Indian real estate.

This study will examine macroeconomic and capital market factors (like inflation, currency risk, interest rate volatility, M3, BSE realty index, BSE Sensex and GDP) to determine the drivers of domestic and foreign NREFs flow in the Indian real estate sector during 2005 to 2017. This study will use secondary data from various sources including published reports and data on various macroeconomic, capital market and NREFs investment data (from World Bank, IMF, RBI, OECD, VCC Edge, etc.). 

Overall, this paper will evaluate the significant determinants of NREFs flow in Indian real estate.

Engerstam, Sviatlana. "Determinants of residential prices in Sweden over the long run." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Sweden is one of the countries where residential prices have been growing since late 1990s. On average, residential prices were growing by 6.5% p.a. between 1995 and 2017 with a few exceptions after the financial crisis of 2008 and during debt crisis in Europe in 2011.  In the late 2017 and following 2018 residential prices were stagnating. Can these fluctuations in prices be explained by fundamental factors of supply and demand?

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of macroeconomic factors such as population, disposable income, dwelling stock and interest rate on residential price dynamics. Estimation is done by applying panel data methodology on regional data for major Swedish cities for the period of 1995-2018. 

Results suggest that the long run dynamics of residential prices in Sweden has autoregressive character, and to certain extent might be explained by changes in fundamental factors such as population, disposable income per capita, dwelling stock and mortgage interest rate.  

Even though non-fundamental factors like, for example, rental regulations, valuation and banking policies have received attention in the research literature, the impact of these factors is not well described. Therefore, this paper also provides a deeper insight into different institutional factors that might create fluctuations in prices on residential markets.

Zeitler, Joseph-Alexander, and Sven Bienert. "Determinants of time-on-the-market in a changing real estate environment – The relationship between housing demand, demographic change and liquidity." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Demographic change has direct and indirect impact on the development and size of households and their housing demand. Households are becoming much smaller on average. Overall, the proportion of one- and two-person households will continue to rise. In 2040, four out of ten people, or more than a third, will live alone or in pairs. Due to the lack of appropriate apartments, this trend will have impact on the liquidity of apartments. On the other hand, there will be a surplus of larger apartments, which will become less attractive. This is also partly due to the enormous increase in rents in agglomeration areas. In addition to this, the single households will demand less space, even though living space has absolutely increased. In this respect, the present study tries to analyse the interrelationships between changes in household size and housing demand on liquidity of residential apartments, both for sale and rent. The research question therefore is, whether the change in population structure or housing preferences has an influence on the Time-on-Market (ToM) of real estate. There is no explicit model that incorporates both housing demand (choice of apartment type) and demographic variables on liquidity. The paper uses the well-established multivariate Cox proportional hazard model that explains the factors that influence the letting process of an apartment as a probability function while incorporating the dwelling- and market-specific characteristics. A broader knowledge of liquidity and the underlying factors is essential for assessing future market movements with respect to the buying, selling and rental process of real estate. Beyond exploring the hedonic characteristics, the paper should contribute to the existing literature by enhancing the modelling quality and introducing additional socioeconomic and sociographic variables to TOM modelling.
Gabrielli, Laura, and Aurora Ruggeri. "Developing a model for energy retrofit in large building portfolios: energy assessment, optimization and uncertainty." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

During the last years, a growing interest has pivoted around strategies and methodologies for energy efficiency in buildings. Nevertheless, the focus has always been on single properties, while the scientific research still lacks in solutions for building portfolios. Assets owners instead, would require reliable decisional tools to select the most effective retrofit solutions. This study intends to elaborate a model capable of identifying the optimal allocation of financial resources for energy enhancements in large building portfolios. The core idea is to assist and strongly orientate the decision-making process through a comprehensive new methodology. 

Some novelties characterize this research. First, the approach developed covers each aspect of energy retrofits, from preliminary analysis to construction and management. Second, the level of detail requested is not excessively burdensome, ensuring good reliability. Third, the approach is interdisciplinary, connecting statistical techniques (regression analysis), economic feasibility (life cycle costing, discounted cash flow analysis), optimization modelling (multi-attribute linear programming), and risk simulations (Monte Carlo simulation). 

The method developed has been implemented into a portfolio of 25 buildings in North Italy for testing and validation. It was possible to compare several design alternatives and reach for the best outcome. This demonstrated how the model could be successfully used in real applications. The most significant achievement in this study lies in its extreme flexibility, allowing confronting countless design scenarios until the optimal is attained. Another significant result is the synergic integration of traditional financial techniques with operational research. The last novelty is the employment of a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation to measure the risk, considering uncertainty as a structural part of the study.  This methodology helps in verifying what are the best options from both an energy and economic point of view, giving priorities, time-distribution of interventions and optimizing the cash flows. The research could, therefore, be useful for portfolio managers, asset holders, private investors or public administrations, who have to plan and handle a series of energy efficiency actions.

Parlasca, Peter, and Vincent Tronet. "Developing Commercial Real Estate Indicators – state of play and way forward After the International Conference on Real Estate Statistics from 20-22 February 2019 in Luxembourg." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. commercial real estate; Data Gaps; Indicators; Price Indices; Real Estate Statistics

Residential Real Estate Statistics is a well-developed domain of official statistics already enshrined in a legal act in 2013. As a consequence, recent and legacy data are available for all EU Member States.

Statistics in Commercial Real Estate are less developed for several reasons. One decisive reason is the heterogeneity of CRE asking for clear definitions of the element „commercial“ and the split in subcategories before starting to develop any price indices. The statistical working paper developed internationally and published by Eurostat end 2017 supports efforts for compiling data.

A high number of methodological questions were dealt within the International Conference In its sixth session, a wide spectrum of topics in particular related to Commercial Real Estate was discussed. A summary of the conference findings might be useful to present in order to enrich the discussion for further developing this new statistical domain.

In many Member States private data providers play a key role or are the only data provider due to missing official statistics even. The methodology of private data providers differs in various countries and the methods applied are not always made public. However, the macro prudential analysis of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and the ECB request data comparable not only over time but also across Member States.  The ESRB expressed its data needs for monitoring the macro prudential stance of Member States in its recommendation on closing Real Estate data gaps encompassing both Residential and Commercial Real Estate data.

The ECB is working on the indicators shedding light in the financial sphere of Commercial Real Estate. The AnaCredit project with its first data transmissions of some countries since autumn 2018 plays a key role. The ESS is complementing the picture by paving the way to the collection of information for physical indicators. This includes pilot projects targeting the development of price, rent and yield related indicators. Another work stream of the ESS targets the collection of data on construction starts and completions of Commercial Real Estate projects.

Kroesswang, Alexander. "Development of a Standardized Business Process Model for Austrian Property Management Companies." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The workflows and business processes of property management (PM) companies are relatively standardized and fragmented. Hence, the potential for the digital transformation of these business processes should be relatively high compared to dissimilar real estate service providers, e.g. project development.

The aim of my dissertation project is to assess the gap between the current technological possibilities and the status quo in the PM industry as well as to explore the reasons underlying this gap:

  • Identify main business processes of PM companies and divide them into sub-tasks
  • Analyze the current potential of digitalization for each sub-task from a technological perspective (i.e. the “technological barrier”)
  • Identify other innovation barriers
  • Survey the status-quo regarding digitalization of main business processes and innovation barriers in Austrian PM companies

This contribution to ERES’ PhD workshop summarizes the outcomes of the first phase of my dissertation project and sketches a standardized model of the main business processes in Austrian PM companies.

Although the model developed focuses on Austria – necessarily so, because the scope of business processes in PM companies is partially linked to national (real estate) law – it can be used in and adapted to other legislative contexts. Therefore, the workflows derived from it will be made available as open access files in an editable format.


  • Expert interviews applying gamification elements with executives 
  • Analysis of documents provided by companies (e.g. process flowcharts, contracts, tender documents)
  • Observation of employees’ work tasks (where necessary)
  • Design of flowcharts using BPMN 2.0
  • Discussion of extracted workflows with experts
Valier, Agostino, and Ezio Micelli. "Digital innovation and Real estate appraisal." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This research reviews the existing literature on the use of digital innovation in real estate valuation, focusing on three aspects.

First, it analyses the factors that make the use of digital innovation increasingly relevant in the real estate sector and, more specifically, in the evaluation phase of assets. The need for innovation in the real estate market is highlighted, as the demand from investors for fast, reliable and objective appraisals.

The second part reports the literature on digital innovations applied to valuation models, distinguishing between forecasting models for future market trends and assets-specific automated valuation models.  This section focuses on the impact that new models have on the currently used approaches for value assessment.

Third, the use of digital-based valuation models is investigated by analysing the context conditions. The review analyses the literature that correlates the reliability of the new models and the conditions of the real estate market in which they are used, especially in terms of information efficiency. 

Finally, the conclusions summarise the limits and potential of digital innovation in the field of valuation. Future directions are then identified.

Siniak, Nikolai, and Dmytro Zubov. "Digital Real Estate Transformation for Social Needs: A Case Study on Smart Environment for Visually Impaired People." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Smart sustainable development and inclusive growth policy in Europe have a significant social impact on the cities and regions. The investigation of the regions’ potential is a starting point for the social and economic development that leads to a higher quality of life. Together with developed smart infrastructures such as Industry 4.0, smart transport and cities have to be hospitable for people with disabilities. This concept is based on the combination of digital, economic, social, environmental, and other structures. 

Nowadays, digital technologies simplify the everyday activities of the blind and visually impaired (B&VI) people, their employment, and make the work conditions more B&VI friendly. The real estate facilities were drastically changed for the B&VI last decade. Internet of Things helps the B&VI to increase control over their lives and live independently. Examples of today available assistive devices are as follows: related to low vision (magnifiers; near/distance vision telescopes), for daily living (thermometers, barometers, and other meteorological sensors; lighting; color sensors; liquid level indicators; money handling devices), for information and communication (mobile communications; screen magnification software; Braille editing and translation software; web-browsers for non-visual output; computer vision), automatic doors and windows (smart locks; smart doorbells; smart curtains and shades), voice assistants (music and audiobooks; heating control; voice-activated phone calls; news and weather updates; calendars and reminders), home help (garden robots; robot hoovers). However, the standard smart assistive infrastructures have not been developed yet. The most prospect approach is the combination of the real estate facilities/services with the B&VI assistive soft-/hardware at the construction and facility management stage including related laws and standards.

This paper discusses how the ICT technologies simplify the B&VI everyday activities and employment and make their work and living conditions in buildings more B&VI friendly and how it can influence on a real estate market and regional development. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic territorial benefit.

Chapman, Anthony, Nan Liu, and Bob Duncan. "Distributed Ledger Technologies for the Real Estate Market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Distributed ledger technologies such blockchain, crypto-currencies, tokenization and smart contracts have recently received a lot of attention. Despite this increase in attention, industries and governments around the world are not using such technologies to their full potential. Real estate is one of such industries who could greatly benefit from adopting such distributed ledger technologies, mainly due to their automated confirmation and transaction transparency nature. In this paper, we explore some of the main distributed ledger technologies and evaluate their potential impact on the real estate market. Our aim is to show how they could improve current methods such as title deed transfer or property valuation as well as point out any issues which might arise from digitising real estate methods.  We also review any reasons for why the technologies have not been adopted already and evaluate what impact they could have if they were to be implemented. 
Dermisi, Sofia, and Dario Trabucco. "Do shorter span high-rise office buildings have a better real estate performance?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Column-to-column structural spans have been increasing in mid-rise and high-rise office buildings from 25 feet to 45-50 feet due to progress in artificial lighting technologies, structural systems, tenant pressures and zoning regulations. The length of free spans has a direct impact on the construction cost and a building’s sustainability, as longer spans require more structural materials to be built. The paper analyzes the relationship between column free spans and market performance (vacancy and rents) of tall office buildings while accounting for LEED certification and Energy Star label status. If evidence confirms that other building characteristics, including post construction sustainability adoption, has a higher impact on an office building marketability, new strategies can be initiated to reduce the structural spans of tall office buildings and therefore their embodied energy, without affecting their market value. The paper focuses on the class A office buildings of more than 600,000 square feet in downtown Chicago. The results suggest that buildings with shorter spans experience more vacancy, while rents do not have any statistically significant relationship with free spans. Additionally, higher LEED points are achieved by buildings with shorter spans.
Kim, Jeongseob, and Gi-Hyoug Cho. "Does co-living improve the physical and mental health of residents?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Co-living or shared housing has become popular as an emerging housing option for young adults in many countries. Co-living allows residents to save rent by sharing common spaces such as a kitchen and living room in their home. In addition, co-living could provide a new opportunity for social relationship with housemates. Personal privacy is not fully ensured in shared housing so that social conflicts can occur among residents. However, co-living could improve the health of residents through social interactions with housemates. In this regard, this study examines whether co-living can improve physical and mental health of residents. This study explores the relationship between co-living and the health of residents based on the survey with a sample of 830 young adults in Seoul, South Korea. We compared the mental and physical health of house-shares with those of residents in general housing. There is no difference in the physical health between house-sharers and general people, but the mental health of house-sharers, specifically for the depression, is better than that of general people. The results imply that co-living could have the potential to improve the mental health of residents by providing the social relationship with housemates. The findings of this study could be a basis for developing an effective housing policy and planning for young adults.
Hoesli, Martin, and Elias Oikarinen. "Does listed real estate behave like direct real estate: updated and broader evidence." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The aim of this study is to add to the knowledge on the question of whether listed real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns. Relative to the extant literature on the topic, we make several contributions in addition to using more recent data: (1) we use data for six countries (U.K., France, Germany, and the Netherlands for Europe, and the U.S and Australia for the rest of the world); (2) we estimate both country-specific and panel models to increase the reliability and generalizability of the analysis; (3) we estimate structural vector autoregressive and structural vector error-correction models to be able to better and more reliably interpret the various shocks in the model; and (4) we analyze the influence of the planned investment horizon on the correlation structures between listed real estate, direct real estate, and equity in the six markets. In addition to the listed and direct real estate and stock market indices, we incorporate in the analysis a number of fundamental variables that are expected to influence and have been found to affect real estate and stock returns significantly and that can be utilized to identify the structural (i.e., more reliably identifiable) economic shocks. We also control for the leverage of listed investments.
Nanda, Anupam, Sarah Jewel, and Olayiwola Oladiran. "Does Migration Policy affect the Residential Pattern of Immigrants? evidence from UK quasi-experimental research." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The United Kingdom is one of the major destination of immigrants and approximately 50% of the UK immigrant population reside in London. This immigrant concentration has been linked to the city’s political, economic and administrative relevance globally and to the UK in particular. This paper presents empirical evidence that migration policy may also play a significant role in the locational choices and residential pattern of UK immigrants. A conceptual link is developed on the premise that migration policy plays a key role in creating and sustaining migration waves and by extension, the socio-economic, socio-cultural and demographic composition of immigrants which are also key factors in individuals’ locational choices and residential patterns. Using rigorous quasi-experimental techniques namely Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) and Difference-in-Difference (D-in-D) style approaches, this research examines the impact of the 2004 accession of 10 new countries to the EU (EU A10) and the Immigration Act of 1971 on the concentration of immigrants in London as well as the general residential pattern of UK immigrants. The results reveal that EU A10 immigrants that immigrated to the UK after the 2004 migration liberalisation (post-EU A10 immigrants) have a 20% lower likelihood of residing in London and are more spread out to other regions, compared to the pre-EU A10 immigrants who have a higher concentration in London. The results also reveal that Commonwealth immigrants that immigrated after the introduction of new immigration restrictions in 1972 have a 10% higher likelihood of residing in London compared to Commonwealth immigrants that immigrated before 1972. These results provide new insight on the potential link between migration policy, locational choices and residential patterns of immigrants.

Uisso, Amani, and Harun Tanrivermis. "Dynamics in Land Use and Driving Factors on Change in Arable Land in Tanzania." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Tanzania has a population of 44,928,923 people, as according to 2012 national census and projected to be 52,554,628 people in 2017 by Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and is estimated to have total surface area 945,087 km2. Continental area is 88.2 million hectares, of which Some 70% of the land is considered to be village land supporting more than 80% of the population (farmers and pastoralists) with the approximately 39% of all land being used for agricultural activities, 28% as a reserved land and 2% general (mainly urban) land which is supporting 20% of the population. The gross area cultivated or planted annually is about 5.1 million hectares which are only about 5% of the surface area of Tanzania. The other arable land, but not cultivated, is 10 million ha much of it is used as pasture and meadow. While in the reserve areas there is an additional of 4 million hectares suitable for cultivation.

Most of the researches keep on focusing on land use change in general, but little has been exemplified on the arable land in cause and effect relationship. This research carries out on the base of quantitative analysis and more attention on the quantitative study on the cause and effect relationship and hence creating the agricultural or arable land use model within the period of 1987 to 2017. The paper entails to discuss and analyse the land resources characteristics of the change of arable land in Tanzania according to the arable land area and relevant factors affecting the land resources mainly here referred to arable land. Linear regression analysis with Cochrane-Orcutt and Prais-Winsten estimation methods by using SPSS 22.0 software method was adopted to carry out quantitative analysis on the driving factors of arable land and its change in Tanzania. This paper also establishes the multiple regression model of driving factors on arable land area. Finally, some corresponding suggestions and discussions were put forward. The research results give valuable information for decision-makers to design sustainable arable land resources management strategies and national land allocation policies among the land-based sector within the case of Tanzania as well as other African nations.   

Odunsi, Tayo. "Dynamics of the Nigerian Housing Market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The Nigerian real estate market has grown over the years. From contributing about 3.37% to GDP in 2010, it contributed 6.79% to GDP in 2017 (as per the data from the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics). It has also improved in transparency parameters; from being ranked 96th in the JLL Global Real Estate Transparency Index (2012) it was ranked 69th in the 2018 rankings. However, there is very little formally and consistently reported real estate data, with no accessible property databank and there is no reliable benchmarks such as house price index in the country. This lack of data and state of opacity has hindered extensive and empirical analysis of the local market. For the residential real estate sector, a reliable House Price Index is crucial in information flow across various stakeholders in the market and setting expectations based on fundamental aspects of the market, thereby reducing measurement error issues in empirical estimations.

In this PhD work, I am undertaking three strands of research. First, we would develop a house price index based on transaction data using established methods (such as hedonic and repeat sales frameworks). Second, we would examine the dynamics of ownership and renting market using user cost of capital framework. Third, we would undertake a detailed analysis of the informal market structure and recommend policy framework for bringing efficiency in the housing market.

Standard economic theoretical frameworks (related to revealed preference, symmetric information, market transmission channels) will be brought in and research hypotheses will be tested using appropriate empirical methods (e.g. regression-based analysis) and property transaction as well as economic indicator data.

Ahlenius, Martin. "Effect of Relationship Quality on Well-Being and Performance. A study of Real-Estate Broker in Sweden." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Problem: Within marketing, there is a consensus that increased customer satisfaction and loyalty is thought to be closely connected to present and future revenues. In service organizations, customer satisfaction is highly dependent on the service employee’s ability and motivation to execute the service in line with the customers’ needs and expectation. Most customers prefer a service relationship in contrast to a service encounter. So customer satisfaction is more likely to increase if the customer perceives that there is a relationship with the service provider. This might be as to why a lot of previous research, regardless marketing- or management perspective has focused on the customers’ perception of the relationship. To do that makes sense, after all it is the customer that uses and recommends the service and the provider,  which of course Is connected to present and future revenues for both company and service provider. However, what about the relational perspective and benefits/motivation for the service provider, does the service provider prefers a service encounter or service relationship? Human relations has a major impact on subjective well-being, and subjective well-being impacts individual performance beyond job satisfaction. So is it possible that the relationship quality within customer relations, affects not only performance thru customer satisfaction, but also increases performance thru subjective well-being? Understanding what causes and influences performance within sales appears to be an everlasting puzzle among both practicians and marketing researchers. Previous marketing research with a relational perspective has done a comprehensive survey on influences- and effects of customer relations within the service domain. The major part of these studies is conducted in a B2B context where the relation and interaction between humans are seen and evaluated from a psychological perspective. The psychological relational perspective is not as common in studies in B2C studies within the service domain, aside frontline employee studies. There is a demand for studies among professional service providers, in respect to both performance, subjective well-being and relationship quality. Echoing that proposition, this study is conducted among Swedish Real-Estate Brokers (REB). This is due to REB:s long-lasting and intense customer relations. There is a strong incitement of trust due to the possibility that REB:s customers are both highly financially- and emotionally connected to their homes. Swedish REB are obligated to perform the entire real estate transaction, which makes them even more interesting as a study object, due to the increased amount of trust and time needed/spent with each customer.  

Purpose: The purpose of this study is twofold: 1) to exam if preferred relationship (service- encounter/relationship) with customers differ between REB:s and, 2) exam if relationship quality from REB:s perspective affects individual performance and subjective well-being.

Design/methodology/approach: This study applies a quantitative, deductive, hypothesis driven approach survey among 1000 Real-Estate Brokers in Sweden.  

Findings: Preliminary findings indicates that attitudes among real-estate brokers concerning customer relations varies. The variations in relationship quality connects to both performance and subjective well-being. Real Estate-Brokers, who prefers service relationships are more likely to have higher relationship quality, perform better and display higher levels of subjective well-being.

Research limitations/implications: Real-Estate Brokerage is in some ways not only a unique occupation in itself, brokerage can also differ between countries. This can be mainly linked to legislation and culture. Therefore, a certain degree of caution is necessary before any generalizations can be made to other occupations within sales and Real-Estate Brokers in other countries. 

Takeaway for practice: Performance are interesting and problematic topics for both individuals and managers within sales. The salespersons perspective on customer relations has long been somewhat neglected by both researches and practitioners. This study contributes by adding understanding about the connection between a salespersons view on customer relations and performance thru subjective well-being. These insights might be used as: 1) an individual tool within sales to increase performance and subjective well-being thru customer satisfaction, and 2) managerial tool assisting in: hiring, implementations of Customer Orientation and Customer Relationship Management.

Originality/value: The findings presented in this paper are partially in line with the previous studies and the theoretical assumptions made. To the best of my knowledge this is one of the first studies that investigate customer relations in this context from the salespersons perspective. 

Höing, Alexa, and Annette Kaempf-Dern. "Effective decision-making for municipal real estates." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The real property value of the German government enfolds 800 billions of Euros. Considering the pattern of utilisation, school buildings and their associated sports facilities represent the biggest part in municipal real estate portfolios, often followed by the buildings for day-care centres and administrative buildings.

Although there is a great interest from politicians and the general public in excellent education, since it is supposed to have a positive effect on the economic power of modern economies, school buildings are often neglected and measures are taken in case of immediate need only.

Often, there is lack of anticipatory strategic planning such as by means of forecasts. Generally, only short-term operational measures are initiated and carried out without considering the life cycle of the real estate and the corresponding sub-portfolio in the overall context. 

In particular, the strategic perspective for determining the space and cost requirements for school buildings as a base for decision-making should, however, be given a higher priority.

Therefore this article addresses the following questions: 

  • What is the current situation of municipal real estate management in Germany? Which strategies, structures and systems are used for real estate management? Are there differences in the planning of school buildings?
  • What are the current decision-making processes in municipal real estate management using the example of school buildings? Who are the stakeholder/ agents in the decision-making process in municipal real estate management? According to which criteria are the responsibilities allocated?
  • What are the strategic management approaches that could be useful for municipal real estate management? How do they consider future developments?
  • What key factors are needed to forecast public real estate management? How do the respective factors influence each other and which factors may hinder each other out?
  • Which future influencing factors are there? To what extent do they play a role in the municipal real estate portfolio?

Design/methodology/approach: To identify fundamentals  of decision making for municipal Real Estates and develop a theoretical background for strategic management in public real estate management, an intense literature review is conducted. Responsibilities of municipalities are surveyed in form of a standardised web-based questionnaire with different types of questions such as multiple-choice or also open-ended.

Findings: Research findings will lead to recommendations for activities that support sustainable strategic management of municipalities that enable systematic strategies that address issues in local public real estate management. By providing checklists and explanations of applicable tools this research will ideally support, decision makers in the municipal level to develop a responsible planning of real estate management for school buildings, by providing them with different scenarios.

Klamer, Pim. "Effects of client attachment on the quality of information verification in real estate valuation." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Information verification is an important factor in commercial valuation practice. Valuers use their professional autonomy to decide on the level of verification required, thereby creating an opportunity for client-related judgement bias in valuation. The purpose of this paper is to assess the manifestation of client attachment risks in information verification. A case-based questionnaire was used to retrieve data from 290 commercial valuation professionals in the Netherlands, providing a 15% response rate of the Dutch commercial valuation population. Descriptive and inferential statistics have been used to test research hypotheses involving relations between information verification and professional features that may indicate client attachment such as an executive job level and brokerage experience. The results reveal that valuers acting at partner level within their organisation obtain lower scores on information verification compared to lower ranked valuers. Also, brokerage experience correlates negatively to information verification of valuation professionals. Both findings have statistical significance. The results reflect valuers’ reasoning behaviour rather than actual behaviour. Replication of findings through experimental design will contribute to research validity. Maintaining close client contact in a competitive environment is important for business continuity yet may foster client attachment. The associated downside risks in valuation practice call for higher awareness of (sub-conscious) client influence and the development of attitudinal scepticism in valuer training programmes. This paper is one of few that explores possible sources of valuer judgement bias by relating client-friendly valuer features to a key area of valuation i.e. information verification.
Hu, Hai Feng. "Effects of Human and Economic Development on the Population Dynamics of Megacity: from the Perspective of Urban Dream." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The Rank/Size rule (Zipf’s law) implies that the bigger the city, the more attractive the city. And, the difference of population growth in megacities all over the world implies that attraction of Asian megacities is greater than Western megacities. This research adds the “urban dream” factor into the push-and-pull theory for city formation, and because most of the “urban dream” comes from poverty, this research proposes that the intensity of urban dream is a decreasing function of human and economic development, thus the intensity of urban dream will be bigger in Asia, consequently the push-and-pull model with urban dream factor can explain the differences between Eastern and Western megacities.

Cheung, William. "Effects of Serial Position on Stock Liquidity: Evidence from Japanese REIT Markets." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

An important feature of public Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) is that they enhance the liquidity of the underlying illiquid property markets. Surprisingly REITs in Japan are among the most illiquid stocks in the Tokyo Stock Exchange. We examine an important but neglected factors of market liquidity – serial-position effects – in Japanese REIT (J-REITs) markets. Researches in social science suggest that serial-position effects exist extensively but less evidence are documented in financial markets, and much rarer in real estate finance literature. Given the relative homogeneity of investment and regulatory constraints faced by Japanese REITs, we argue that J-REITs provide a controlled environment to identify serial-position effects in a financial market. We find that stocks of J-REITs with their company names in higher "Katakana" order are significantly more liquid-lower price impact and higher turnover - than those with names in the lower order. We further document a non-linear, two-dimensional position effects using the nested linguistic complexity of Japanese. Our results cannot be fully explained by traditional factors of stock liquidity.

Ryan, Paul, and Clare Branigan. "Emotions, Uncertainty, Gender and Residential Real Estate Prices: Evidence from a Bubble Market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper investigates the impact of valuation uncertainty on residential property prices near the peak of a bubble. Our hand-collected sample comprises the sequence of bids and gender of the participating bidders at Irish residential real estate auctions, prior to the collapse of a bubble, which when it burst had disastrous implications for the banking system and the economy itself. Portfolios of practitioner- and hedonic pricing model-selected self-similar properties provide benchmark property price estimates and uncertainty is calculated by reference to various measures of dispersion related to prices achieved for comparable properties. We find, in aggregate, auction winners do not shade bids with increased valuation uncertainty. In addition, winning female bidders, in contrast to findings in the extant literature across a wide range of academic disciplines, including experimental bubble markets, are not less risk averse, or more likely to shy away from competitive situations than their male counterparts.  

Koblyakova, Alla, and Michael White. "Empirical Evaluation of the Help To Buy Initiative in England." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The global financial crisis after 2007, and the subsequent housing and mortgage market stagnation, significantly deteriorated households’ ability to buy a house. Responding to declining homeownership rates, the government introduced a range of initiatives to offset the negative impact of relatively high first time deposit requirements, and the associated overall mortgage costs, also providing a stimulus to the house-building market by assisting households to obtain a mortgage when purchasing a new-build house. The Help to Buy Scheme was designed to help first time buyers and households in need to enter homeownership, also aiming to stabilise house prices by stimulating supply of new homes. However, the strict and inflexible planning system in England may have significantly reduced responsiveness of housing supply to raising demand for housing debt. Such politically infeasible consequences may have led to destabilisation of house prices and a regionally unequal distribution of HTB benefits. Further, there is a possibility that the main beneficiaries may refer to lenders, since lending rates within the scheme may apply additional risk premiums, leading to additional profit margins.  This article addresses these questions by employing a system of the four structural equations, exploring reverse causality and simultaneous relationships between the share of the HTB Equity Scheme, Supply of New Built houses, House Prices and spreads between average mortgage rates and base interest rates.  The period of study covers 2013-2018, capturing the start and subsequent developments of the HTB Scheme in England. Empirical estimations employ two stage least squares and IV estimation techniques.

Li, Jianfei, Ioulia Ossokina, and Theo Arentze. "Estimating the HARA land-use model for housing planning based on hedonic price analysis." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

HARA is a land-use model that uses a search algorithm to find the optimal spatial allocation of new housing demands in an urban plan area. In the model, the plan area is represented as a grid of cells. A core element of the algorithm is a function that is used to evaluate the value of a cell for each possible land-use given its location. An optimum is found by stepwise improving an initial allocation based on the value function. In this paper we show that the value function can be specified as the net value of a (housing) development given the land costs, the construction costs and the market value of the development at a location. Specified in that way the solution generated represents an optimum as well as a market equilibrium (maximum net value for developers). A critical prerequisite for this is, however, that the value-function is specified such that it accurately represent buyers’ willingness-to-pay for dwelling and location characteristics in the housing market. In the paper, we show how the value function can be estimated using hedonic price analysis. The analysis is carried out based on a large housing transaction data set from The Netherlands. The trade-off between living in a green environment and having high-level urban facilities in the proximity of the residential location is of special interest for housing planning. This trade-off has become more significant even given the growing environmental concerns for creating climate-adapted as well as compact cities. We present the results of an application of the estimated model where we investigate the nature of this trade-off and the impact this has on the green-versus-compact character of urban development. We anticipate that the trade-off may change with the increasing importance of good climate performance (robustness for extreme weather conditions). Using the model as an experimentation tool, we consider what the impacts of changes in the trade-off will be for the spatial planning of housing.

Shin, Seungwoo, Eunjung Shin, Yoo Seonjong, and Hyun Seok Lee. "Ethical climate in the Korean appraisal industry." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Although there are numerous research papers regarding the ethical climates of western countries (Victor and Gullen, 1987; Arnaud and Schminke, 2012), research findings regarding the ethical climate of Korea are relatively few or minute (Lee and Yoshihara, 1997). This paper is one of the pioneering efforts in the line of research on ethical work environment within the Korean property industry.

We surveyed 322 certified Korean appraisers nationwide who are currently practicing their profession in 2018. We have three hypotheses: First, the older (and consequently, more experienced) the appraisers are, the more sympathetic they will be to clientele effects; Second, appraisers who have majored in management during their university years are more sensitive to profit than appraisers who have majored in other fields such as liberal arts, social science, engineering, and so on; Lastly, male appraisers value loyalty to people [Guanxi, as explained by Cheng and Wang (2015)] most highly, while female appraisers most highly value rationality, at least in Korea.

We conjecture that certified Korean appraisers are clever enough to think of this survey as a sort of qualifying exam. They try their best to find the correct answers to obtain the perfect score as in a high school exam. Considering that there exists a “If I do it, it’s romance, but if you do it, it’s cheating” phenomenon in Korea as described by Lee and Yoshihara (1997), we need to improve our questionnaire to obtain credible and sound data of what we want to measure.

Aguda, Oluwadamilola, Obas John Ebohon, and Chris Leishman. "Examining the Relationships between Young Adults’ Housing Tenure, Elements of Perceived Job Security and Social Capital in Britain." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper investigates the relationships between young adults’ housing tenure, social capital, and elements of perceived job security in Britain. Young adults are faced with different situations that continue to shape their housing consumptions and decisions. Socio-psychological dimension of housing tenure decisions has been receiving attention by housing market analysts and practitioners seeking deeper understandings of UK housing market dynamics, particularly in the wake of changing tastes and preferences of young people with regards to housing decisions across major cities of the world. More specifically, very little research has been done to investigate the contributions of social capital formation, for example,  neighbourhood or social integration and social relations, separated by perceived job security, on housing tenure transitions among British young adults. The initial steps taken include a synthesis of existing literature and confirmation of data availability for the study. This will ensure existing efforts are not duplicated, opening up and further revealing how the current study may contribute to existing knowledge. A quantitative approach has been designed to analyse the data obtained from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). The hypothesis drawn is that individual young adult’s tenure mobility may vary by combinations of the direction of transition, social capital, and perceived job security. It is our view that findings from this study will significantly enhance our understanding of tenure shifts amongst young adults in the UK and provide property developers, local authorities, and central governments the knowledge and information to guide urban renewal towards achieving better social cohesion and sustainable communities.

Kask, Kaia. "Exploring the productivity and value added in construction sector value chain: the case of Estonia." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The paper aims to explore the productivity and value added in Estonian construction sector, by implementing value chain analysis, based on the real estate asset life-cycle concept. The present study tackles the added value-based labor productivity as the proxy to total productivity, where the sum of labor costs, depreciation and net income is divided with the number of workers in the relevant sub-sector. 

In its narrow definition, the construction sector alone forms by  average ca 5% of GDP and in its broad definition, i.e., construction sector along the whole value chain together with real estate sector, form by average ca 10% of the GDP, employing also by average ca 10% of workforce in each country. As the construction sector along its value chain affects both directly and indirectly many other sub-sectors in the economy, the total impact of the construction sector value chain to the overall economy is estimated to be approximately 45% of the GDP. 

However, despite of the high importance of the construction sector, its contribution to the overall economy in terms of productivity and value added is rather scarce, remaining unchanged during the last decades and lagging many times behind from manufacturing and also agriculture. Many scholars have referred to the lack of innovation as one of the main reasons for low productivity growth in construction sector compared to the other fields. 

By exploring the productivity and value added issues within the Estonian construction sector value chain, then the results of the empirical analysis revealed that along the real estate asset´s life-cycle based U-curve, the most value adding activities are real estate development on the left side of the U-curve (closer to the producer) and real estate services in the right side of the U-curve (closer to the customer) and the least value adding activity was the construction activity of buildings (production), according to its narrow definition. In general, the level of productivity in construction of buildings is approximately 2.5 times less than for the real estate development and services. 

In order to increase the productivity of the construction sector along its value chain, Estonian government has set a strategic goal to fully digitize real estate and construction sector by implementing systematically a vision of e-construction. E-construction system will be connected with the X-Road ecosystem of e-Estonia, which links up various public and private sector e-service information systems (i.e., e-identity, e-Land Register, e-Justice, e-Tax, e-Business Register, e-Banking, e-Health Records, e-governance, etc.) to function in a full harmony. In addition, the Estonian government aims also to develop on a long-run strategic plan of counter-cyclical public investment for construction sector. 

The current study revealed also that in order to achieve the average level of labor productivity in EU 28 construction sector by year 2030, it requires for Estonian construction sector at least 7% growth in labor productivity per each year, which may be regarded as an achievable task due to the strategic plans of Estonian government. However, it also requires a sharp implementation of innovative technology (Technology 5.0) with disruptive change in private real estate and construction sector business models.

Chang, Tzu-Chia. "Facility preferences for senior housing among lifestyle segments in Taiwan." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Taiwan’s governments used to motivate supplies to fit the expected increasing demands for senior housing, since the elders’ share of population was 7% in 1993. However, the vacant rate was still high in budget senior housing whereas the demand for high-price dwelling has been fulfilled by private sectors during these two decades. It indicates that market segmentation is necessary, based on the heterogeneity among elders. In this study, lifestyle characteristics are introduced as a basis for segmentation in senior housing market. And I intend to figure out product combination for targeted elderly segment as well. Factor analysis and cluster analysis were employed to illustrate lifestyle and demographic characteristics of elders in each segment. And ANOVA tests were performed to reveal the differential preferences for housing facilities and services among elderly segments. The results show significant diversified preferences among elders, and suggest closer consideration of elders’ lifestyles when creating and promoting senior housing services.

Wisniewski, Radoslaw, and Justyna Brzezicka. "Factors that determine translocality on the real estate market – globalization and glocalization." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Translocality is a multidimensional concept that accounts for the increasing complexity of globalization and glocalization processes that can be integrated as part of translocal processes. The real estate market is a well-defined area of translocality because its characteristics well fit the definition of locality. The real estate market is regarded as a local market because it is based on property that is immobile in geographic space as well as the inherent components of property. The real estate market has obvious connections with a specific locality (point in space), but it also plays a role outside local space. Globalization and glocalization processes come into contact on the real estate market, and they become suffused, strengthened or weakened in translocal processes. A unique interplay of local (often hyperlocal) and global elements can be observed on the real estate market. These attributes make the real estate market an excellent vantage point for studying the factors and variables that characterize the translocal market.

The main aim of this study is to identify the factors that determine translocal processes on the real estate market. These factors and variables will be analyzed from the point of view of market participants. Clusters of economic, demographic, political, cybernetic and environmental factors will be defined in analyses of translocal processes in local market space. These clusters group factors and variables that define and participate in translocal processes on the real estate market. A systemic analysis of correlations with other areas that condition translocal processes will also be carried out.

This research and conference expenses are funded by a grant from the Polish National Science Center, Miniatura 2 COMPETITION, No. DEC-2018/02/X/HS4/02241.

Coen, Alain, Aurelie Desfleurs, and Saadallah Zaiter. "Financial Analysts’ Forecasts, Uncertainty and Abnormal Returns: Evidence from US REITs Geographic Concentration." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The aim of this study is to analyze and compare the abnormal earnings announcement returns of «concentrated» and «diversified» U.S. REITs from 2000 to 2017. Using a unique property-level dataset, we analyze the impact of geographic concentration on the relative performances of real estate investments trusts (REITs). More precisely, we focus on financial analysts’ forecast accuracy, market-level uncertainty, REIT-level uncertainty and synchronicity. First, we document the coverage, the accuracy and the bias of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts on «concentrated» and «diversified» REITs. Our results report that the level of accuracy and the level of optimism are statistically different for these two categories. Second, we observe that abnormal stock returns, abnormal trading volume and abnormal volatility may be related to the level of geographic concentration and synchronicity.  Our results shed a new light on the potential link between the level of geographic concentration, or home bias at home, and the level of information on stock markets.
Wills, Nadine, and Daniel Piazolo. "Financial benefits for the real estate sector by using technologies of AEC industry." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. A wide range of partition forms the real estate sector, such as asset management, investment management, property management, or facility management. A main objective in real estate sector is the allocation of housing and gaining benefits in dealing with properties. The real estate industry is comparable to automotive industry, architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry, or logistic industry. In all of these types of industries, digitalization gains high importance. Comparing digitalization technologies from various industries it can be shown that these technologies are used heterogeneously. A widely used digital technology in AEC industry is the method of building information modeling (BIM). A building information model is a digital representation of physical and functional characteristics of a facility, serving as a shared knowledge resource for decision making during the life cycle of a building. A reason for using BIM is a saving of time resources, of human capacities, and of money.  The financial benefits for the real estate industry by using BIM are especially considerable in facility management. By an early integration of a real estate maintenance phase into planning phase and construction phase, reinvestments necessary caused by suboptimal planning are avoidable. BIM integrates real estate-relevant data for all kind of the sector participants. Digital tools of the AEC industry can be used for marketing and distribution (e.g. analysis of building proposals, performing simulations, or benchmarking performances) and for decreasing maintenance costs (e.g. by controlling whole life costs and environmental data). Several case studies have shown that by using BM for the real estate sector, up to 40% of costs can be eliminated. Furthermore, time taken to generate cost estimations can be reduced by up to 80%. Moreover, savings of up to 10% of the contract values through clash detections and a reduction in project time up to 7% are the benefits of using BIM for the real estate sector. The case studies focused on savings of the facility management industry. A cost elimination and a rise in benefits will occur while implementing AEC digitalization tools to asset management, investment management, and property management as well. The objective of this paper is an investigation of already existing digitalization tools in the real estate sector, comparing and evaluating these tools with the digital method of BIM. This paper assesses the portability of the outcome of these studies for the European real estate industry of today.
Mege, Olivier, Fabrice Larceneux, Arnaud Simon, and Paul Andriot. "Financial performance and quality, a factor-based approach for real estate benchmarking." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The indexes widely adopted by the real estate industry aims to evaluate the performance of a fund from its total return excluding the quality of the real estate property. There is a consensus around indexes based on a specific segmentation on the location (city, metropolis ...) of the property on the one hand and the typology of the asset (offices, warehouse ...) on the other hand. The construction of the index is based on a market average combining both location and typology. This indexes requiring to use many comparables. This perception of performance tends to exclude the « real » quality level of the asset in the investment decision making. Our work aims to assess the intrinsic quality of a property from its intrinsic and its financial characteristics. This methodology is based on a representative panel of the market who is in charge to evaluates the characteristics of a building. Our approach aims to add to the definition of Total Return (TR): the quality level of the building (QB), the quality of the geographical location (QL), the rental legal security (Ql) and the variation of these three levels of quality in time (bQB, bQL and bQl). Our approach aims to compare the level of management skills of an asset by an asset manager compared to the expected management of the market, on the building. That why characteriscts is no longer appreciate from a normative segmentation, but from assessments of the quality levels of the characteristics of the building. This the basis of our factor-based benchmarking approach.
Kippes, Stephan. "Fluctuation in prime retail locations in Germany’s 'Big 7' real estate markets – an empirical survey." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Retail trade is always subject to a high degree of change. The dynamics of change in the retail sector is intensified by the massive growth of the online trade.

Changes in the classic retail trade are followed by changes that are of highest importance for the real estate industry with a more or less pronounced time lag. That is changes of the tenant-mix, stores, or even vacancies of outlets in the retail real estate market. This paper analyses the changes and turnover of retail outlets in the retail real estate markets of the 'Big 7', i.e. Germany's most important real estate markets, for the time period 2008 to 2018. An important indicator of change in the retail sector is the level of change of retail-tenants, that is the retail fluctuation.

The paper focuses on retail outlets in high streets, as these prime retail locations are of the utmost importance for retail markets. In high streets, the majority of retail sales are generated and the highest rents are achieved. Furthermore, this real estate type is the flagship of the retail, or even the commercial real estate markets. In this respect, as described above, the paper compares the retail fluctuation in the “Big 7”, and it examines the extent of these changes.

Basically, a distinction can be made, whether a change was initiated by a tenant, or several tenants, the landlord, or real estate development. At the same time the reasons for undertaking real estate developments can also be complex and can be caused by a tenant or several tenants who terminate their leases, or construction activities which are triggered by the landlord.

At the same time a very low fluctuation rate is also not desirable, as trade also needs a certain level of change. A very low fluctuation can indicate that necessary adaptation processes do not take place, are pent up, or - even more unfavorably - no new operators or concepts are willing to spearhead this drive to change. Such a situation can at a later point in time initiate the downturn of a retail location, and an increased vacancy rate.

Lausberg, Carsten, and Francois Viruly. "Gut feeling or reason--How do property developers decide? An international research project on rational and intuitive behaviour in the field of property development." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Human decisions are context-dependent, for instance influenced by the availability of infor-mation. But they also depend on the character traits of the decision-maker, for instance the tendency to decide intuitively (based on emotions and affection) or deliberately (based on reasoning). Perhaps real estate development is a field, which is prone to intuitive behaviour because of the specific characteristics of this activity, which include lengthy time horizons, and the lack of information that often accompanies the development process. Surveys among developers have confirmed this, showing that intuition, creativity, instinct, and similar behavioural attributes are regarded as critical success factors in this sector of the market. However, that does not render market analysis, investment calculation and other rational fac-tors useless. The issue that this paper deals with is that decision theory has not yet discovered and, hence, does not assist in deciding in which situation a particular type of decision-making is most advantageous. Our research sheds light on how developers in various cultures and market contexts make decisions. This work should contribute in improving the decision-making quality in the development sector. 

The paper has two main parts. The first part is a literature review, which combines the find-ings on the role of intuition from the managerial decision theory and the psychological deci-sion theory. The second part introduces our research methodology and deals with a series of experiments, undertaken in South Africa and in Germany. These test the personal prefer-ences of the interviewees and then present them with a case study requiring a choice to be made between two alternative development options. The experiments will be undertaken with experienced property development practitioners and property management students. With the help of statistical analyses we intend to show the influence of personal preferences regarding intuition and deliberation on the decision behaviour in the sphere of property development. 

Droes, Martijn, Martin Hoesli, and Steven C. Bourassa. "Heterogeneous Households and Market Segmentation in a Hedonic Framework." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper explores Rosen’s (1974) suggestion that within the hedonic framework there are natural tendencies toward market segmentation. We show that market segmentation can be estimated on the basis of an augmented hedonic model in which marginal prices are separated by household characteristics into different classes. The classes can either be exogenously defined or endogenously determined based on an unsupervised machine learning algorithm or a latent class formulation. We illustrate the usefulness of these methods using American Housing Survey data for Louisville and show that there are distinct housing market segments within the Louisville metropolitan area based on income and family structure.

Marola, Bogdan, and Peter Parlasca. "House price and rent developments in Europe after the financial crisis." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Eu Cross-country Comparison; House Prices; Rents; Residential Real Estate

The presentation will deliver a European picture of developments in residential real estate after the financial crisis. The Eurostat database contains data on House price indices (HPI) at national level for all EU member states. The data starts in 2005 for some countries, and later for the others. From 2010 onwards, the available data allows a comparison encompassing all EU Member states plus Norway and Island.

The advantage of the Eurostat data is that it is official data, compiled based on transaction prices and following a harmonised methodology across countries. The objective of this presentation is to show how this database can provide reliable answers to the following questions:

How deep was the dip in the EU countries? When did the various countries pass with HPI pre-crisis levels? Who were the best performers in the last decade?

The Eurostat database also contains data on the evolution of prices for new and existing dwellings. This presentation will reveal how the Eurostat database can be used to shed light on the analysis of the different patterns of the HPI for new and existing dwellings during the crisis and the following recovery. We show that by taking into account the dynamics of construction activity and sales of new dwellings during and after the crisis, the Eurostat data can be effectively used in the analysis of the evolution of housing markets in the EU in the last decade. 

A special focus will be on the countries having received a warning from the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) at end 2016 having identified these residential real estate markets as a risk for financial stability.

Furthermore, we show how this data can be combined with data on rent prices evolution available also in the Eurostat database from the section dedicated to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. One relevant question is: did rent developments between 2008 and 2018 show similar patterns to house prices or were the rents developments much softer? Knowing what the data represents helps for a correct interpretation of the official figures.

In summary, these datasets being official statistics published by Eurostat support to analyse both longer-term developments like recoveries after the crisis or latest developments indicating towards overheated residential real estate markets.

Amédée-Manesme, Charles Olivier, Francois Des Rosiers, Isaora Dialahy, and Fluet Claude. "Housing Canadian housing market integration in light of foreign buyers." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. A large number of researches have evaluated price linkages in spatially separated markets. In this work, we analyse whether and to what extent the three major Canadian housing markets– Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver–are integrated and if this relation is time-varying. The integration of markets can have important implications for price discovery, housing demand mobility and more importantly for regulations. The question of housing market integration is particularly questioning in Canada. Indeed, some local markets in particular Vancouver and Toronto have recently experienced a strong growth attributed namely to wealthy foreign investors. Local authorities have tried to circumvent this problem by imposing a special foreign- buyer tax in order to favor local buyers. We analyse how these taxes may have shifted investors’ focus to other markets. Our results confirm the presence of thresholds and indicates strong support for market integration and demand shifting. In particular, we exhibit how adjustment to shocks may take months to be completed. We also show that there is a strong contribution from other markets to the volatility of real estate prices in each Canadian city.
Burke, Mark, and Franz Fuerst. "Housing Attributes and Individual Well-being." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. There has been ample research conducted on income and education, as well as income and health outcomes. However, little or no analysis has been done on housing participation and health and well-being outcomes through This paper addresses whether home ownership participation lead to improved social outcomes. It presents an analysis of the causal impact of home ownership on self reported measures of health, mental state and life satisfaction. While intuitively higher house values could be correlated with better income which in turn could be correlated with better housing, this paper explores whether there is a causal influence between the structure of housing, home equity and social outcomes.
Emeghe, Ijeoma Jane, Kathy Pain, and Flora Samuel. "Housing Quality, Autonomy, and Well-being: Calculating the Social Value of Investing in Housing Quality in the United Kingdom." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Mental health and well-being receives a growing source of concern and it is an ever-evolving field of research to international institutions, governments, scholars, communities and individuals alike. The research focused on housing quality, autonomy and mental well-being investigates the associativity that may exist between these, which are the influences of the physical conditions of the home and the psychosocial environment on individual mental well-being, with an aim to deriving quantifiable estimates for statistically significant factors, that is, monetising well-being within the UK housing environment, currently understudied. Following on from literature, the research is underpinned using a trio-theoretical framework designed to measure health inequality; however, adapted to suit the current research. A mixed methodological technique is employed that caters to the two divides of the study. On the one hand, the study examines existing micro (household unit of analysis) panel data set relating to housing quality and mental well-being analysis, and the financial estimation of relevant factors. On the other, and due to obvious drawbacks on existing data set with regards to environmental and design quality and occupier autonomy, the second part of the research conducts one-to-one semi-structured in-depth interviews on a select case study to plug the identified gaps on individual well-being research. The contributions of the study are wide-ranging spanning informing policy circles and housing providers’ decision making, to informing an improvement to the UK social value toolkit through the well-being valuation approach. Where this approach doubles as mediation to inequality by revealing salient well-being needs for effective resource allocation.

Kryvobokov, Marko. "Housing rental submarkets in hedonic regression: econometric arguments and practical application." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

In the Walloon region, in Belgium, according to the recent Housing tenancy decree (2018), “the official rent calculator” should be developed to estimate “the reference rent” for any residential dwelling rented on the market. The “calculator” should be market-oriented and be based on individual property attributes and location. The rent estimation mechanism should geographically cover the region. Homogenous zones should be delimited according to rent levels observed on the market. For this purpose, the regional Rent Survey 2018 had collected data on rents and dwelling attributes for 4.112 observations. This geographically representative sample of the regional rental market provides data for the delineation of rental submarkets. 

The paper deals with the geographical aspect of the regional hedonic regression model of rents. The rental submarkets are delineated with a combination of the “location value response surface”, clustering and expert approach. The purpose of the study is, similarly to Leishman et al. (2013), to find the best way to model the identified submarkets. Three approaches are applied, namely (1) the overall model with dummy variables for submarkets, (2) the set of submodels for the submarkets and, finally, (3) the “location value” in the submarkets, i.e. the ratio of the observed rent to the rent predicted with a hedonic model without location attributes. Actually, the classical ordinary least squares (OLS) methodology is applied. The study should be developed using also the geographically weighted regression (GWR). 

On the one hand, the three approaches are compared according to standard econometric indicators, i.e. the explanatory power of models, the spatial autocorrelation of their residuals and the accuracy of ex-sample predictions. On the other hand, the practical motivation of the study implies the acceptance of the principles and the results of the methods by stakeholders, i.e. landlords, tenants and the regional government. 

While the set of submodels for the submarkets provides the best econometric performance according to the majority of indicators, this approach has an important drawback unacceptable for stakeholders: in submodels, some crucial structural variables, such as those for building type or building age, are often either insignificant or have an unexpected sign. This problem caused, at least partly, by limited size of sub-samples, manifest itself much less in the overall models with location dummies or with “location value”. The practical and econometric advantages and disadvantages of the two latter models are discussed. 

Aminian, Lida. "Housing satisfaction and quality of life (an empirical research among residents of a Dutch city)." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The prominent aim of most housing studies is to examine residential situations in order to understand housing demands and future consequences on the surrounding urban environment. Most research on housing satisfaction has been performed in socio-behavioral sciences and has looked at housing satisfaction as an essential explanatory input to study migration patterns, affordable housing and residential mobility. Nevertheless, in few studies, housing satisfaction has been assessed to understand residents’ subjective well being. This little emphasis on housing in terms of quality of life measurement highlights the gap in this research stream and the need for more detailed studies on this interdisciplinary field.

This paper has aimed to enhance the understanding of the housing satisfaction concept and how this major life domain is affected by socio-demographic characteristics of individuals as well as the characteristics of one’s house. Moreover, the role of  housing satisfaction on quality of life is investigated. Using the data that is collected among the residents of the city of Eindhoven in the Netherlands, this study applied path analysis method to capture the links between various variables and their impacts on overall housing satisfaction. The findings highlight the major impact of satisfaction with ownership, housing type and dwelling design on overall house satisfaction . Moreover, satisfaction with housing  shows a significant and direct influence on the overall quality of life subjectively experienced by residents.

Steurer, Miriam, Robert Hill, and Norbert Pfeifer. "How Big Is the Airbnb Rent Premium? The Case of Sydney." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The rapid expansion of Airbnb has led to concerns that it is crowding-out long-term rentals. We consider how strong is the incentive for landlords to switch properties to Airbnb. The Airbnb rent premium is defined here as the ratio of what a landlord can charge on Airbnb versus in the long-term rental market. Using hedonic regression methods applied to micro-level data on long-term rentals (about a million observations) and Airbnb listings (about 190,000 observations), we calculate the size of the Airbnb rent premium for all the properties in our datasets. On average we find that landlords can earn about 90 percent more per week on Airbnb than in the long-term rental market. The premium is even larger for properties with three or more bedrooms. We find some evidence of a higher Airbnb premium in more expensive postcodes, and those with a higher Airbnb density. We also find that the Airbnb rent premium decreases slightly from 2015 to 2017.

Wagner, Benjamin, and Andreas Pfnür. "How player in the real estate industry are affected by and respond to transformational processes - Empirical evidence from the German real estate industry by structural equation models." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The real estate industry in general and its business models in particular are facing a transformational process, caused by fundamental and multidimensional changes in technology, economy and society. The approaching transformation process results from structural change, which is triggered by megatrends and various drivers of change. The changes in market environment and business models are going to be permanent, thus this process is of strategic importance for long-term decisions of all market participants in the real estate industry. Existing business models come under pressure to adapt, but at the same time changes offer a vast amount of development opportunities for all market players. Due to real estate participants reacting to this change, we speak of a transformational process.

So far, no systematic research about how this transformation process is affecting the real estate industry has been done. Apparently, research has dealt with specific aspects but has failed to provide a comprehensive overview of this research domain. Therefore, our first research goal is to measure the diverse mechanisms of this transformation. Subsequently, our further research objective is to point out how business models of the various German real estate industry participants are affected and how they adapt to the pressure of structural change.

Based on a systematic literature review, a theoretical framework has been developed. This framework is tested empirically by a quantitative survey of 249 decision makers in top management positions of German real estate industry. Structural equation modelling is used to show that megatrends have an indirect impact on corporate adjustments of the participants. The change processes triggered in this way, however, only translate into action through concrete drivers of structural change, that are relevant for this specific industry. 

Further investigations have been carried out on the market participants to figure out the relationships between the drivers of change and the adaption strategies. The results show that it is not just digitalisation that triggers the transformation. For many players, increase of efficiency in their traditional processes is their main focus, instead of evolving new business models or products and services.

Only if the effects of the drivers of change and their consequential impacts on business models in the real estate industry are anticipated correctly, strategic management approaches dealing with future challenges and actively shaping the transformation processes, can be developed properly. The findings help to characterize the need for change in the real estate industry. Furthermore, the study reveals approaches for developing new and innovative business models. 

Mittal, Jay, and Sweta Byahut. "Huff Inspired Gravity Model in Valuation of homes near Scenic lands -- A geographically weighted regression based hedonic model." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This research uses a hedonic Price modelling framework to assess the marginal implicit price effect of conservation easements (CE) lands on single family houses in Worcester, MA. The house price premium is anticipated with the growing visual accessibility from home to conservation easements lands.  The CE lands of interest here are voluntarily protected, privately owned, scenic lands and are based in the urbanized area of City of Worcester, MA. The premium, and the visual accessibility was measured using the transaction of the surrounding homes, and homes spatial relationship with the CE lands. These protected CE lands are perpetually protected with natural, historic, and scenic characteristics that are attractive to the environmental amenity seekers. The home premiums as capitalized due to the visual accessibility of protected lands was measured using a combined weighted measure of ‘view’ and ‘proximity.'  This was developed using the Huff's gravity model inspired index -- Gravity Inspired Visibility Index (GIVI). First, a detailed digital elevation model (DEM) raster with all view obstructing buildings and physicals structures stitched an the topography surface was generated and then the views and distances from homes to scenic lands were used to generate the GIVI, using the Viewshed analysis in ArcGIS. The geographically weighted regression (GWR) based hedonic model was then employed to measure the combined effect of both -- distance and view of scenic lands from each homes. Both the global (adjusted R sq =0.52, AICc =29,828) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) models (adjusted R sq = 0.59, AICc =29,729) estimated the price effect, and the GWR model outperformed the global model. The results from the GWR model indicated an average 3.4% price premium on the mean value of homes in the study area. The spatial variation in home premiums (as percentage values) was also found clearer and more spatially clustered in the GWR model. The highest premium value for select homes in the sample was found to be as high as 34.6% of the mean home price. This is a significant effect of visual accessibility to the preserved scenic lands for land conservation. This research offers a useful framework for evaluating the effect of land protection for land use planning, land conservation and for real estate valuation purposes. It also offers useful insights for conservation agencies, local governments, professional planners, and real estate professionals for prioritizing land sites with scenic views.

Cajias, Marcelo, Jonas Willwersch, and Felix Lorenz. "I know where you will invest in the next year – Forecasting real estate investments with machine learning methods." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Real estate transactions can be seen as a spatial point pattern over space and time. That means, that real estate transactions occur in places where at a certain point of time certain characteristics are given that lead to an investment decision. While the decision-making process by investors is impossible to capture, this paper applies new methods for capturing the conditions under which real estate transactions are made over space and time. In other words, we explain and forecast real estate transactions with machine learning methods including both real estate transactions, geographical information and most importantly microeconomic data. 

Lyu, Ping, and Miao Yu. "Identification and Solution of Youth’s Housing Problems in China---Based on the Calculation and Analysis of Youth’s Housing Stress on Leasing and Purchasing Houses." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The purpose of this study is to measure, analyze and compare the housing stress faced by the youth in purchasing and renting houses, and try to identify the housing problems existing in the youth groups so that we can explore the causes and propose effective solutions. Factor analysis method was used to construct and calculate the housing stress index (HSI), and chart statistics method was used to analyze the characteristics of youth’s housing stress. The results showed that the youth’s housing stress on purchasing houses is generally lower than that on leasing houses. The most obvious housing pressure of youth on purchasing houses is the housing area pressure, and the most obvious housing pressure of youth on renting houses is the social emotional pressure. In addition, the youth’s housing stress on purchasing houses is higher than that of other age groups, and the youth’s housing stress on leasing houses is lower than that of other age groups. Last, the youth’s housing stress frequently increases with their age both on purchasing and leasing houses. The study concluded that the youth’s housing problems should be solved mainly by the owned housing and common property housing, Supplemental by the rental housing in conditional cities. The housing problems of different types of youth’s group can be solved by means of physical security, monetary security, financial and credit support, so that youth’s housing can realize stable transition from difficulty to ease and from lease to purchase.
Oyedokun, Tunbosun, Neil Dunse, Colin Jones, and Jinhyun Hong. "Impact of active travel facilities on lettability and value of office properties: a research plan and preliminary findings." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Active travel continues to gain increasing policy attention and wider acceptance, especially in cities with strong commitment to environmental sustainability. Over the last decade, the promotion of active travel has moved from the fringes of urban transport policy to a much more central role in the planning of cities and their transport networks. Active or sustainable travel, as an alternative to motorised transport modes, is considered an efficient means of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions in cities while also helping active travellers to maintain quality health and wellbeing. Consequently, cities have continued to introduce policies as well as develop transport strategies that are aimed at ensuring adequate provision of active travel facilities (ATFs) in buildings. Commercial offices as workplace for a large proportion of the city dwellers, are expected to incorporate ATFs in their design to help in promoting active travel in cities. Active travel might be useful for achieving transport, health and green agenda, but its sustainability tends to depend on acceptance by property owners (who should provide relevant facilities) and occupiers (who should demand the facilities during letting). Property investors need to be convinced about the added-value potential of provision of ATFs in terms of lettability and rental value, and is a vital motivation for increased investment, which will help to sustain active travel agenda. However, there is a dearth of evidence whether making provision for ATFs is helping to raise the lettability and rental value of offices to justify their investment. Based on this premise, this study explores the link between active travel policies and the office property market, with a focus on facilities provision, lettability and attitudes of office owners and occupiers, using evidence from British popular bicycle cities. Preliminary findings from analysis of rent and building-specific data obtained from CoStar will be presented.
Pfnür, Andreas, Julian Seger, and Rianne Appel-Meulenbroek. "Impact of corporate real estate on the firm performance: Theoretical concept and empirical evidence." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The worldwide research on corporate real estate management (CREM) over the past decades leaves no doubt that this area has a decisive influence on the success of a company. However, there are still great uncertainties about the impact of CREM decisions on the firm success and the underlying causal relationships. Depending on the perspective from which CREM decisions are made, the goals and the targeted contributions to success can vary greatly. In research work, CREM has been for example examined from the perspectives of the labour productivity at the workplace, the influence on competitiveness in sales and factor markets, the financial contribution in context of corporate finance or the efficient provision of real estate resources from the viewpoint of construction and the real estate industry. In their influence on the success of a company, CREM decisions can result in competing, complementary or independent effects. Empirical studies show that the high complexity of the target system is one of the most important challenges for CREM. So far, there is no holistic concept that explains the different success contributions of CREM in their mechanisms and classifies them holistically. The purpose of this article is to develop a holistic model to explain the relationship between CREM decisions and business success and to test it empirically.

In a first step, a literature-based multidimensional framework for corporate real estate's contribution to corporate success is derived. In a second step, the framework has been validated empirically on the basis of a dataset collected from computer assisted telephone interviews (CATI) among the CREM managers of the 200 largest German companies. The answers of the decision makers are positioned in a solution space using multidimensional scaling. This is followed by an comparison whether the empirically generated structure represents the dimensions and mechanisms of the framework. Finally, hierarchical-agglomerative cluster analyses are performed to validate the results.

The results show that the influence of CREM on corporate success can be divided into three mechanisms: operating performance, real estate performance and financial performance. On the other hand, CREM success can be differentiated according to its maturity. If both considerations are combined, the result is a two-dimensional framework that contains all the effects of CREM on the firm success. The mechanisms of the framework can be empirically confirmed in their essential elements. The article provides an overview of the very broad, interdisciplinary literature on the connection between corporate real estate management and corporate success. The mechanisms are systematised in a holistic concept. The deeper understanding of the different CREM effects on corporate success is the basis for the effective development of CREM concepts in theory and practice.

Engerstam, Sviatlana, Jurgita Banyte, and Vida Maliene. "Impact of digitalization factor on the residential values in UK and Sweden." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The development of digital technologies that helped to integrate internet into every home has changed the world. This includes the opportunity to work online at home (e-office), to shop online (e-shops), or the possibility of renting your own home (e.g. Airbnb). Thereby, the digitalization factor has brought new challenges to property market, e.g., promoting working from home model decreases demand of office units; increasing online shopping reduces demand of retail units and increases demand for industrial units such  like warehouses. According to Gartner, the digitalization is the use of digital technologies to change a business model and provide new revenue and value-producing opportunities; and it is the process of moving into a digital business (Gartner, 2019). The digitalization factor represents an impact of internet technologies on property market. 

The aim of this study was to examine the digitalization factor and its impact on residential property market dynamics in Sweden and the UK. The dynamics of residential property market have been analyzed by using both, quantitative and qualitative, data though application of narrative analysis and descriptive statistics. The data have been collected from the property and statistical databases, the academic literature, electronic sources, magazines and professional property market reviews. 

The research findings demonstrated that there is correlation between the digitalization factor and residential property market dynamics in both case study countries. However, the impact of digitalization factor on the residential property market dynamics variates in each case study country.

Dabara, Daniel, Augustina Chiwuzie, Olusegun Omotehinshe, Daniel Dabara, and John Oyekunle Soladoye. "Impact of Inflation on Indirect Real Estate Investments in Nigeria." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The study aims at investigating the impact of inflation on securitized real estate investments in Nigeria with a view to providing information to aid real estate investors in making informed investment decisions. The time frame for the study covers between 2007 and 2016. All the securitized real estate investments including both REITs and non REITs were used in the study. The population for the study comprised of all securitized real estate companies in Nigeria namely Skye Shelter Fund REITs, Union Home REITs, UPDC REITs and UACN properties. Data for the study were collected from the databases of the securitized real estate companies covering the study period. The data collected comprised of share prices and dividends of the respective companies as well as inflation rates obtained from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The data were analyzed by means of both descriptive statistical tools such as frequencies, mean scores and percentages; and inferential statistical tools such as correlation and regression models. 

The study revealed that the inflation-hedging performance of securitized real estate in Nigeria provided a partial hedge against inflation (with beta 0.071). It was recommended that real estate investors consider including REITs in their investment portfolios to so as to protect their investment funds from erosion by inflation. 

Lukowski, Jan Hendrik. "Impact of Large-scale Residential Construction Projects on Land Values." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper investigates how the announcement of three different large-scale residential construction projects impacts land values of multi-story residential buildings in Hamburg, Germany. Applying a difference-in-difference approach the study finds that land values within a radius of 1,500 m may experience either positive or negative effects. The impact depends critically on how the projects are expected to change the existing amenities and disamenities. We uncover price changes in land values spanning from -4% to +22%. The study shows that projects with an overlapping area of impact should be considered in one regression and that projects that are located far from one another can be analyzed in one or in separate regressions.

Multescu, Gheorghe, and Kama Koska. "Impact of recent workstyle transformation on Central London Office Buildings." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Social and economic changes to the workstyles and workplaces in Central London have had a strong impact on the commercial property market during the last decade. The emergence of a strong sector of Tech occupiers offer more stability to the market’s ups and downs. The research aims to investigate how office building design in Central London is adapting to the market changes and if developers and landlords have the ability to respond to tenants’ requirements for better flexibility.

What is the impact of workstyle changes on workspace requirements and utilisation in the Central London office markets? 

The research adopts a two-fold approach. An initial literature review is followed by a survey that takes and in-depth analysis of professional experience criteria and requirements in designing and utilising commercial office buildings in Central London. Data analysis focused on a set of questionnaires sent to three professional groups including developers, designers and consultants and occupiers of Central London office space.

The main findings reflect some clear changes in the type of space on demand as well as a more conscious use of space by the tenants. There are also practical suggestions given of how to improve the workplace quality and attractiveness to increase the competitiveness and appeal to broader groups of occupiers. The improvements include solutions for base build and fit-out that would enable developers and landlord to target a changing mix of more innovative and Tech companies. The adoption of flexible workspace design will allow landlords and tenants alike to align their Corporate Real Estate and Business strategies to enhance the quality of workplace and secure a solid place for Central London in the global development and investment office markets.

Morawski, Jarek, and Anthony De Francesco. "Impact of the Term Structure of Interest Rates on Property Yields." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Significant amount of research has been dedicated to explaining property yields. Long term interest rate is usually identified as one of the key determinants, and property yields are often benchmarked to long term government bonds, which are considered to represent the closest alternative to property investments. However, empirical evidence provides a mixed picture indicating that the link is less than straightforward even when allowing for a time-varying risk premium. 

We argue that the relationship between interest rates and property yields is not just contemporaneous and expectations about future interest rates need to be accounted for in order to fully understand the link between these variables. Since real estate is illiquid and involves significant transaction cost, investors are effectively locked in for many years once they commit to a project. An interest rate increase during that period would expose them to a valuation risk. Moreover, when benchmarking to liquid bonds, the opportunity cost is not only the interest they can earn today but also the interest they could expect in the near future. 

Fundamentally, the term structure of interest rates (yield curve) contains information about the expected future interest rate. Therefore, we would expect that a steeper curve should result in higher property yields. We test this hypothesis using prime office yields in the key centres in Europe and Australia and find convincing evidence that the shape of the yield curve indeed affects property yields.

Lischke, Holger. "Impact of urban development funding on quoted rents in Berlin - A real estate economic analysis based on a former social preservation area, the Stephankiez in Berlin-Moabit." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Urban development funding implies improvement of the set development area. The analysis of Stephankiez in Berlin-Moabit and several reference areas shows a connection between formulated goals of applied funding programs and the four forms of improvement. Especially structural improvement leads to a improved residential environment. Most funding progams don’t imply building of new flats. As evident through rent analysis this leads to a higher demand for space in the funding area combinded with rising quoted rents. 

This doctoral thesis is embedded in the field of urban economics and acts between real estate economics and urban planning. The analysis strives to point out the impact of urban development funding on quoted rents in residential housing. Especially for social preservation areas in accordance to German law (§ 172 BauGB). An urban district in Germany, the Stephankiez in Berlin-Moabit acts as an example. The Stephankiez as a former social preservation area is surrounded by several urban development programs. 

Chen, Yang, and Linchuan Yang. "Impacts of urban rail transit accessibility on property prices in Shenzhen, China: Insights for value capture." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Urban rail transit (URT) plays a major role in mitigating numerous contemporary problems (e.g., traffic congestion and greenhouse gas emissions). A multitude of Chinese cities has released URT development plans. However, construction and operation of URT would cause heavy debt burdens for local government. Value capture schemes can be used to finance URT development and its first step is understanding the relationship between URT and property prices. Though numerous studies in the West have focused on this topic, limited studies have been conducted in urban China. Moreover, most studies are silent on 1) whether or not transfer stations provide larger premiums than non-transfer stations, and 2) whether or not URT accessibility benefits are more perceptible in peripheral areas than in central areas. In light of this, based on 722 residential complexes samples in Shenzhen, China, a set of hedonic pricing models is developed to examine the impacts of URT accessibility on property values. The findings are as followings: (1) URT accessibility offers positive externalities; (2) An inverted-U relationship exists between URT accessibility and property prices; (3) Transfer stations provide larger accessibility benefits than non-transfer stations; (4) the URT accessibility benefits are more notable in peripheral areas than in central areas. Though the first two findings are in line with most of the relevant studies, the last two findings have seldom been identified in existing studies, which represent the potential contributions of this work. Practical implications of our findings, such as diversified or location-specific value capture schemes are further discussed.
Weston, Thomas, and Stanimira Milcheva. "Improving forecasts of the level and structure of long-run discount rates in the leasehold property market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Transaction-level data will be utilised to explore the level and structure of long-run discount rates applicable to the residential leasehold property market. While techniques such as panel and hedonic regression have traditionally been applied to housing data, issues such as nonlinearity, multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity, present challenges to the ability of traditional regression-based methodologies to make long-term, accurate forecasts. Therefore, this work will compare these traditional regression techniques with two machine learning techniques – a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and a gradient episodic memory (GEM) model – that are anticipated to overcome these issues endemic to housing data, and provide more accurate and precise forecasts. LSTM models overcome some of the problems with regression models, namely, nonlinearity, and the level of memory over time. Where regression models lack a categorical memory component, LSTM models provide the ability to learn features from the data, as opposed to directly applying a pre-conceived, prior structure. This results in LSTM models being able to better deal with inter-temporal, yet rarely occurring events. GEM models build on the strengths of LSTM, and allow task-based learning, which enables more precise modelling of the behaviour and recurrence of rarely-occurring events within leasehold transaction data.
Jansz, Sascha, Oscar Couwenberg, Terry van Dijk, and Mark Mobach. "Increasing interaction: a systematic literature review on how campus spaces and services can stimulate human interaction." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

To meet national valorisation goals, universities are increasingly interested in attracting companies to their campuses and in stimulating encounters between university and company employees to enhance cooperation and to foster innovation. One way of doing so is to design spaces and services in such a way that they optimize encounters. 

However, Buck consultants (2014)1 found that campuses are having difficulties in developing and offering a diverse and attractive range of buildings and services to (potentially interested) companies. As a result, university facility management is looking for ways to improve the quality of spaces and services in such a way that companies are attracted and interaction between companies and universities is stimulated.

Our systematic literature review identifies the existing body of knowledge (current state-of-the-art) on how campus design - on both spaces and services - can stimulate serendipitous meetings. The study links various fields and different theories that interconnect on how ‘hard’ facilities (built environment) and ‘soft’ facilities (services) influence interaction potential. 

Although many studies indicate a relationship between design / environment and human behaviour (such as environmental psychology), limited attention is paid to the specific design concepts and elaborations which are meant to increase interaction for these different user groups. 

Our main findings are that there is very little overlap between the fields of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ facility services regarding campuses and serendipitous meetings. Also, in each field individually the body of knowledge is predominantly related to different scales or settings (e.g. building, campus or region scale). 

Based upon our results we have developed a conceptual model providing an overview of the published concepts and elaborations in spaces and services design that influence human behaviour on campus. This model clearly reveals a need for further evidence-based research on the campus scale.

  • 1. Buck Consultants International. (2014). Inventarisatie en analyse campussen 2014. Den Haag.
Veuger, Jan. "Influence of Blockchain Technology & Applications." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Blockchain might be the future of digitalizing assets into small pieces called tokens, of which the process is called tokenization. Transaction costs and speed are reduced, and entering into so called Real Estate Investment Trusts for investing in real estate are no longer an issue. Through tokenization, anyone from this planet can invest in real estate.

Context: According to Savills (2017), the total value of world real estate reached $217 trillion in 2015. It only includes developed real estate and could have been much larger when we had counted the vast amount of non-developed land on the planet. One major boundary is the accessibility and the tradability of money. In the current situation, real estate is traded via Real Estate Investment Trusts (short: REITs). The problem with these REITs is the accessibility. Only the few people who can investment above the threshold can invest in real estate. Thereby, currency is another problem, because potential investors in Hong Kong cannot invest in Dutch real estate. This leads to a lack of liquidity on the financial real estate market. Blockchain might be the solution to this lack of global liquidity in real estate. In this way, real estate is purchased via smart contracts, traded via blockchain, and invested in by tokens: all very quickly. In this way, the world has no longer the financial borders from today. In theory, anyone can invest in real estate and make profit.

The main question of this research paper is: In what way can tokenizing real estate by blockchain substitute the conventional way of investing in non-listed real estate?

The sub questions of this theoretical framework in order to answer the main question are:

  • What is the conventional way of trading non-listed real estate? How does this work? What are its boundaries?
  • What is blockchain?
  • How can it be adopted in real estate?
  • What are smart contracts? What are its (dis)advantages?
  • What is tokenization? How does it work?
  • What are its (dis)advantages?
  • What form of token is important in relation to tokenizing real estate successfully?
  • What are the (legal) hurdles of tokenizing assets?
  • What is the perspective of tokenization?
Pašek, Jan, and Veronika Sojková. "Influence of the Facility Management of the Modern Buildings on their Utility and Market Value." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The modern buildings nowadays are becoming so different from traditional building constructions especially in the case of an indoor parameter’s environment and low energy performance. New building materials, new technologies for HVAC, new construction approaches as smart buildings, energy passive buildings, etc. bring new criteria for real estate evaluation. The presence of sophisticated technical solutions and technologies in modern buildings requires a sophisticated approach to their management in order to achieve a high quality environment, health and performance of building users.

Quality of indoor environment is based on several factors, divided into two groups – technical parameters and services. The technical properties include lighting, acoustics, air conditioning, ventilation, and heating, and also flexibility of the indoor space, design, colours, facilities etc. On the other side, the services forming the indoor environment are the building security, maintenance, respectively facility management in its entirety. All this addition value of the building is necessary to take into account for real estate valuation purposes. The problem, that needs to be solved continuously in this process, is to objectify all the decisive parameters and properties determining the value of a modern building. Assessing the contribution of the quality of facility management is one of the modern challenges.

Hirsch, Patrick. "Influence of the Facility Management of the Modern Buildings on their Utility and Market Value." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The euro area economies are bound together by monetary policy while still inhibiting many heterogeneities. Amongst them the share of homeowners. This paper presents a medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model of the euro area with an extensive housing market which explicitly models endogenous tenure choice. Results from the calibrated model indicate that there are various parameters determining the ownership rate. Dependent on the drivers of the heterogeneity, shocks have substantial effects on real variables when homeownership rates differ across countries.

Steininger, Bertram, and Melanie Sturm. "Interest Rate Risk, Term Spreads, and the Mortgage Contract Term." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Borrowers of a mortgage can choose between fully bearing the interest rate chance risk and paying a term spread to be protected against fluctuating mortgage rates. By using a one-period model, we study the choice between a fully adjustable mortgage and a fully fixed-rate mortgage. Furthermore, we examine with a life cycle model whether a mortgage is best broken down into several short-to-medium-term FRMs -- a common form in various mortgage markets but only rarely analyzed in research. We are among the first to demonstrate that borrowers with high risk aversion, non-amortizing mortgages, a large mortgage, and a low probability of moving are better off with long-term contracts. Our results show that amortizing mortgages are best broken down into several contracts with the optimal contract term generally declining as the mortgage ages. Initial contracts may be shorter than following contracts, only if borrowers expect to benefit from decreasing interest rates. For non-amortizing mortgages, a fully FRM is superior, unless interest rates are expected to decrease significantly.

Duca, John. "Interest Rate, Regulation, and Tax Effects on Commercial Real Estate: Lessons from the Past Half Century." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Collapses in commercial real estate (CRE) prices sharply reduced construction outlays and—via their accompanying loan losses—induced bank credit crunches, thereby playing a large role in the U.S. recessions of 1990 and 2007-09 and the sluggish recoveries from them.  We develop a system of equations for commercial office valuations, rents, and construction that empirically incorporates some of the features of the DiPasquale and Wheaton (1992) four-quadrant model of CRE markets. Using quarterly data spanning a half century, we estimate how changes in taxes, interest rates, tax depreciation, credit conditions, and capital requirements have affected office valuations (capitalization rates), which, in turn, induce changes in rents and construction—the latter of which is analyzed using a Tobin’s q approach.  Using data covering several decades is needed because CRE activity tends to experience long cycles.  

Our results indicate that while current high valuations of CRE are in line with a low real interest rate environment, office prices and valuations are vulnerable to mean-reversion in long-term interest rates.  Nevertheless, the impact of valuation swings on office construction in recent years has been muted by less pronounced changes in existing property prices relative to replacement costs, implying that prices are more vulnerable than is the level of construction.   

Willwersch, Jonas. "International yield spreads as a determinant of foreign real estate investment activity." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Volumes of Foreign Real Estate Investment (FREI) have rapidly grown in many countries over the past decade (Mauck, Price (2017)). Thus, activities of foreign investors become increasingly important for domestic but also globalized real estate markets. So far, literature has quantified the effect of foreign capital on fundamental real estate parameters such as cap rates (see e.g. McAllister, Nanda (2016) and Kim et al. (2018)). Furthermore, researchers identified several determinants of foreign capital flows (see e.g. Lieser, Groh (2014)). However, the literature entails a gap if and to which extent differences in international cap rates (so-called yield spreads) affect foreign investors. Consequently, the functional relationship between the foreign investors’ calculus and international yield spreads is the fundamental research aim of the present study.

This paper will utilize insights from real estate literature for national markets, which identified domestic yield spreads as a decisive factor to determine capital inflows into an asset class (Laposa, Mueller (2017)). The analysis will assess whether this national mechanism can also be observed on an international level by focusing on the United States (US) as the target country for foreign real estate investments. Thus, the empirical study will isolate the effect of international yield spreads on foreign inflows into commercial real estate in the US. These spreads are calculated as the difference between US yields and yields in several foreign markets (e.g. Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and others, which showed high investment activity in the US in the past). Hence, the central hypothesis states that positive spreads trigger inflows and consequently increase the transaction volumes of foreign investment. The latter will be tested by using regression models. These include time series analysis such as OLS as well as logistic models and Markov-Switching, following the existing literature methodically (see Tsolacos et al. (2014) as well as Laposa, Mueller (2017)), but also expanding it by including spreads as explanatory variables.

To the best of the author's knowledge, there is no study, which investigates international yield spreads as a determinant for foreign real estate investment. Therefore, the paper will improve the understanding of investors’ calculus and contribute to the body of literature by shedding light on the impact of international yield spreads on foreign investment activity.

Uhlenbruch, Wiebke, and Christian Stoy. "Investigating information needs for specific processes in real estate to prioritise data." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The availability and interpretability of information is key to a successful construction project and the steering of real estate.

Due to the current possibilities in methods and software (such as Building Information Modelling (BIM)) more information can be collected and processed than before. It is expected that BIM will improve the flow of information between stakeholders and project phases.

Methods and tools, however, cannot determine which information is needed in respect to corporate necessities, real estate specifics, and project specifics, economical or legal aspects. 

This leads to the following research questions:

  • What are necessary processes and tasks in real estate?
  • How can this data be prioritised?

First an extensive literature review on processes and tasks on the basis of the current BIM discussion in real estate is conducted. The result is a list of processes and tasks examined thereafter, amended and ranked by real estate experts. Approaches to structuring and prioritising data are presented. 

The results of this paper are the basis for further examinations: It is planned to conduct interviews with experts for each process or task to specify which information is needed to fulfil the requirements of the process or task. 

The findings of this research help to identify relevant data in dependency of the objectives and the given circumstances. The methodology can be used in consulting building owners or other stakeholders to determine their information demand prior to e.g. the start of a new project. 

Soot, Matthias, and Alexandra Weitkamp. "Investigation on Experts’ Surveys in Germany." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Experts’ decisions influence appraisals. The choice of model and of data sources have a direct impact on the valuation results. In Germany, the committee of valuation experts (Gutachterausschuss) which derives the public market data is using the instrument of experts surveys regularly. Also, some private appraisers use this instrument if no data is available. The average number of participants is regularly less than 10 people. The results are used in reports and for court decisions. However, the reports do not indicate the accuracy of the survey result. Although the uncertainty of the experts cannot be quantified, the highest court in Germany accepted a subjective expert’s survey in the context of real estate appraisal in 2012.

While experts’ knowledge and its influence are widely studied in international context, a research gap can be identified for the German market. To improve the use of surveys in real estate valuation the following research questions should be answered: 

  • Do the topic and structure of the survey lead to a different dispersion in the answers?
  • Is it possible to structure the response behavior of participants by different categories?

In the investigation, we collected the raw material of surveys made by the committees of valuation experts in Germany and appraisers. Firstly, the structure of the survey is investigated (clear question, available meta-information, etc.). We categorize them by the topic and structure of the survey with a content analyzes. Afterward, we derive accuracy indicators from the dispersion within each category and discuss differences within the same category of different surveys. In this discussion, we will have a look at the spatial or temporal experiences of the experts in relation to dispersion and if there are systematic biases. Based on our findings, recommendations are derived.

Shin, Seungwoo, and Gyoungsun Kim. "Investment Analysis by Using Tax Assessment Database on Land Lots in Gwangjin District, Seoul, Korea." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper addresses the issues regarding the performance evaluation of generic investment strategies in land lots in a retail market trade area in a district in Seoul, Korea. To this end, this paper investigates 1993–2016 data on 6,478 parcels of commercially used land parcels in Gwangjin District, one of 25 districts in Seoul, the capital city of South Korea. Gwangjin District extends over 17 km2, with33,307 land lots and a population of 366,939 as of 2015. Because tax assessments in this district are determined by both certified property appraisers (appraisal) and government staff (mass appraisal) in a pegged order, it is generally accepted that the resulting assessed numbers are biased to certain level. Thus, we use the gradient measure to eliminate the most likely biases. Our innovative term of gradient is calculated by subtracting the assessed value of one land lot from that of another in the neighborhood; simply put, the difference of assessed values of two land parcels within certain distance bands. 

We analyze whole land lots in this district currently used for commercial purposes (retail shops and small offices such as FIRE and clinics), along two dimensions: assessed values and their gradients. What we call the HVHG group consists of land lots with higher assessed values and higher gradients. The HVLG group consists of land lots with higher assessed values but lower gradients. We also consider LVHG (lower assessed values and higher gradients) and LVLG (lower assessed values and lower gradients) groups in our analysis. This research finds that the differences in mean returns between HVLG and other groups except HVHG group are statistically significant based on a paired t-test.

We test a couple of investment analyses. Our investment analyses control for the impact of both the value of land lots and distance from subway station on the realized rate of returns. We find that both the smaller valued and remote from the station groups beat the other groups in a statistically significant manner. In addition, a simple one-year momentum land investment strategy is again tested and the result is statistically not significant. Finally, we also visualize the retail market area and intertemporal changes in the market area.

Schoenmaker, Dennis, Ken Baccam, and Guillaume Oliveira. "Investor's 'local' experience and asset pricing: A pan European study on logistics in key urban areas." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Experience, i.e., the knowledge or skills acquired during a period of time, should benefit commercial real estate fund managers and investors. This as experience suggests not only greater knowledge and skills but also implies a wider network of brokers and participants for example, thus helping them in selecting and negotiating more attractive commercial real estate deals. This study addresses whether the experience influences asset pricing across a range of different size urban functional area cores. We focus on logistics as the evolution of global supply chains, alongside global trade and the rise of online commerce triggered a strong demand for logistics space, ranging from e-fulfilment centers, pan-European distribution centers, and national distribution centers to urban distribution centers. Using transaction based data over the 2003-2018 period from Real Capital Analytics, we define several measurements to investigate the experience of fund managers and investors.
Mariani, Massimo, Alessandra Caragnano, Vittorio Placido, and Marianna Zito. "IPOs versus ICOs: a new challenge for Real Estate industry?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

In the last few years there has been an increasing interest in the blockchain as well as the application of this technology within the global financial markets, also involving the Real Estate industry.

In a greatly innovative way, the blockchain could represent a tool to gather financial resources targeted to the Real Estate industry through the issuance of tokens following an Initial Coin Offering (ICO). Therefore, this paper aims at comparing the IPOs and the ICOs concluded in the Real Estate industry in order to highlight similarities and differences as well as the potential developments of this innovative technology. In this perspective, we aim at investigating the destiny of the NAV discount and which new relations could be explored.

Yang, Linchuan, Kwong Wing Chau, and Zhu Yuan. "Is access to public services valued differently in low- and high-end housing submarkets?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Previous research suggests that access to public services, generally, has a positive impact on housing prices. However, most, if not all, studies are silent on whether the effect varies across different housing submarkets. For example, wealthy households are likely to own cars and thus have high transportation mobility. Thus, they may not value access to public services in the same way as low-income households do. We use 22,586 second-hand housing data in Xiamen, China to test the differential impact of access to public services on housing prices in the high- and low-end submarkets. Low- and high-end housing submarkets are defined according to price. Results from estimating the hedonic pricing and spatial econometric models confirm several findings: (1) the benefits of access to most public services are capitalized in housing prices; (2) access to transit, commercial facility, education, and sports/cultural center has significantly positive impacts on house prices in the low-end housing submarket. Yet, this finding is less applicable to the high-end counterpart; (3) the effect of access to public services on housing prices varies across the two submarkets: typically, access to public services has lower positive impact for high-end properties than for the low-end ones; and (4) interestingly, access to shopping center has a larger positive impact on housing prices in the high-end housing submarket than in the low-end counterpart. Practical implications of our findings are also discussed.
Yuo, Tony Shun- Te, and Yu-An Yang. "It is not all benefits from Airbnb and room-sharing platforms: the problem and concerns of collaborative consumption and sharing economies." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Sharing economy is so popular nowadays, it is regarded as a new way to generate evolutionary or even revolutionary business models. Owing to the rapid development of verifying, measuring and storing technologies, such as ICT, IoT, GPS, clouds, 5G and block chains, sharing economies have shown its potential in almost all fields: bikes, cars, rooms, logistics, energies, even finance and investments. Explicitly, these technologies seemed to be the solutions of resource indivisibility and free-rider effects, therefore sharing become applicable. Nevertheless, this research believes that sharing is not merely the problem of identifying and delineated the rights and obligations between sharing users. In other words, not all resources are suitable for sharing, especially the stakeholders of the subjects were multiple parties. This research focuses on the concerns of Airbnb-liked room-sharing platforms, collecting opinions from users, providers and the managerial authorities. The results show that sharing is indeed not all about benefits, but comes with all sorts of concerns, ranging from planning issues, devaluing the property value, privacy concerns, to personal safety worries. Another matter is the slow legislation process cannot cope with the rapidly evolving operational patterns in sharing economies. The managerial authorities even could not identify the essence of the problem in sharing to determine the legality of the business. This research suggests that regulating these sharing goods should go back to the fundamental characteristics and not all traditional or old fashion system should be contempt.

Amoruso, Paola, and Massimo Mariani. "Italian auction market: investigating forced sale value." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The present work focuses on the considerable amount of real estate non-performing loans in Italy, not favored by the state of judicial proceedings. In this view various governmental initiatives intended to facilitate a more efficient liquidation of underlying real estate assets. In this regard, it could be useful better understand main causes of discount between market value and forced sale price with the primary aim of a more comprehensive determination of the value of mortgages ‘underlying guarantees and not least in order to improve further valorization processes of assets intended to get a higher selling price; starting from results of existing literature, an analysis of main determinants of the gap between the estimated listing price and forced sale value has been conducted, sampling 225 cases of forced residential property sales between 2014 and 2018 in the South of Italy.

Schilder, Frans. "Kickstarting the energy transition: opportunities, limitations and welfare implications of social landlords’ ambitions." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The Netherlands, like countries throughout Europe, face enormous challenges realizing the goals set in the 2015 Paris agreement. Real estate, and more specifically residential real estate, bears the potential to contribute significantly to realizing climate goals. Towards meeting the Paris agreement goals the Dutch housing market will need to become energy neutral in 2050. Progress in making housing more energy efficient has been slow so far. Possibly as a result of the slow pace of investments in energy efficiency anticipated price decreases following the industrialization of energy solutions are yet to be realized. Housing associations have recently proposed to become the frontrunner in the energy transition on the housing market: economies of scale, a limited number of agents owning roughly 30% of the total housing stock, and fairly deep pockets make good arguments for this ambition. However, this ambition comes at a cost as well: how feasible is kickstarting the energy transition within the sector in charge of housing the lowest income households? What are the necessary conditions to make this kickstart work? And what are broader welfare implications, in terms of (reduced investment potential in) local living conditions, and affordability? Some preliminary findings of a mixed-methods study.

Dabara, Daniel, Kabir Omotoso Lawal, Augustina Chiwuzie, and Olusegun Omotehinshe. "Land Tenure Systems and Agricultural Productivity in Gombe Nigeria." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Agrarian; agricultural development; land reform; land tenure; tenure security

The purpose of this study is to examine the existing land tenure systems in Gombe state, Nigeria with a view to determining its impact on agricultural productivity in the study area. Land tenure system is concerned with man’s relationship with land, involving intervention in the prevailing pattern of land ownership, control and usage in order to change the structure of holdings, improve land productivity and broaden the distribution of benefits to all. Nigeria is an agrarian nation with over 56.8% of her working force engaged in farming. Agricultural development and productivity has the advantage of provision of more employment and a better base for farm financed welfare in the economy. However, the study revealed that agricultural productivity in Nigeria is hindered by tenure rules such as stipulated in the Nigerian Land Use Act of 1978. Furthermore, land tenure insecurity, political/bureaucratic bottlenecks in land rights acquisition for agricultural purposes are among the pertinent issues and challenges that have contributed to stagnating agricultural productivity in the study area. It was recommended that for a vibrant and sustainable development in the agricultural sector of the economy, a new land tenure reform is imperative. The reform agenda, should carefully consider the pertinent issues and challenges inherent in the present land tenure systems with a view of providing solutions to them and expediting agricultural development and productivity in Nigeria.

Tanrivermis, Harun, and Yesim Aliefendioglu. "Land Values and Compensation Payments from the Viewpoint of Owners and Users Affected By Projects: Analysis of Selected Land and Water Development Projects in Turkey." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

It is noteworthy that land valuation practices and compensation determination methods differ based on the purposes of land acquisition and especially owners have problems of perception regarding the concepts of “value” and “compensation” and that land value and compensation criteria deviate to a great extent. Methods used in valuation studies for land acquisition differ according to the types and kinds of real estates in many countries. Valuation criteria vary depending on the methods used in land acquisition and expropriation processes and it becomes necessary to classify the type of real estate in the first place as bare land and developed land in the valuation studies. In Turkey, under the Law on Expropriation No. 6830 dated 1956, it was firstly necessary to determine the expropriation values of land as per the methods of income and market value. Then, under the Expropriation Law dated 1983 and numbered 2942, it has been made legally obligatory to determine the value of parcels in the form of land lots based on “net income that the land can bring according to the position and conditions of the source and as it is used” and to conduct valuation procedures of parcels that have gained the quality of land lot based on the “non-special-purpose precedent transaction value before the expropriation date (comparative sales analysis method)”.  

Analysis and valuation methods and results of land acquisition and valuation studies for public and private projects are not generally understood, and valuation results that are appreciated according to the properties of land and the value expectations of the owners also deviate significantly. A comparative analysis of income value of lands, market values, values appraised by expert committees appointed by courts, if any, and the land values or compensation amounts which the owners would like to be paid (willingness-to-accept - WTA) using the results of 20 different projects analyzed in terms of parcel unit values was conducted by the real estate and asset valuation research group over last decade. According to the results of the field studies related to the selected case studies, it has been found that the land unit values that the owners want to be paid are generally higher than the land market and income values, and in these conditions, it is generally difficult to complete the land acquisition process in a short time by compromising with the land owners. Also, they preferred generally payment as cash compensation instead of in kind.    

According to the results of the selected sample project analyzes, the main reasons for the value expectation of the owners affected by the project to be higher than the estimated value of the land according to the income method include the expropriation values (or negative experiences) determined by courts in previous projects and some subjective factors. Factors such as the proximity of the parcels to village settlements, rivers, creeks and roads, land tenure and fertility of the land seem to be much more influential on the land value expectations of the owners. In many project areas, expropriation of parcels outside village settlements usually takes place and this can be interpreted as land prices should be relatively low. However, factors such as land availability and especially the lack of irrigated land in the project site and surrounding settlements, the presence of irrigated land generally in the expropriation area (except the irrigation facilities to be formed in the adjacent area after water retention) and the high population increase are among the reasons for the high value expectations of the owners. Nevertheless, it should be kept in mind that criteria such as “social elements” and “expectation and tendencies of the owners” are not included in the legislation and should not be taken into consideration in practice, in consideration of the expropriation values of the expropriated land. The fact that land values that the land owners want to be paid for are higher than the market values of the income value and parcels that have gained land lot qualities, which are clearly defined in the legislation, are considered as the reasons for the increase in dissatisfaction levels of the land acquisition process of the affected owners and affect the adoption of investments at the local level negatively. There are frequent instances where owners and users of land, and even the local community as a whole, tend to not want investment projects in general due to such reasons as making traditional benefit-cost analysis instead of social benefit-cost analysis during the decision making of investment projects; the weakness in implementation of international standards in project land acquisition phase; and not focusing on the assessment and implementation of tools for assessing impacts after land acquisition and mitigating adverse impacts. In these conditions, it seems necessary that public and private institutions should ensure transparency of the process of land acquisition and expropriation, and compensation calculation and payment systems are removed from the national scale to achieve compliance with international approaches and standards.

Owusu-Ansah, Anthony, and Wilfred K. Anim-Odame. "Macroeconomic determinants of residential property prices and bubble testing in the property market in Ghana." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. In this paper, we examine the main macroeconomic factors that determine residential property price changes in Accra, the capital of Ghana and also test whether the residential property market is in bubbles. We employ quarterly time series data over 25 years and the vector error correction model (VECM) to examine the dynamics of the market. The principal results stemming from this paper show that GNI per capital, employment rate, inflation rate, stock prices, interest rate, cocoa price and urban population growth positively drive residential price in Accra. The results also establish that there is a long-term relationship between the seven macroeconomic indicators and residential prices in the country. Any short-term disequilibrium correct itself over the long-term because of these economic forces. This phenomenon suggests that the residential property market is not in bubbles. Understanding the fundamentals of residential market affordability in the country remains a challenge for policy makers. The study, which is a novelty in Ghana has accordingly produced results with policy implications for the government and policy makers in promoting residential property in the country, particularly in developing policies for residential market affordability.
Koelbl, Marina. "MD&A Disclosure and Performance of U.S. REITs: The Information Content of Textual Tone." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. 10k; REITs; Sentiment; Textual Analysis

Textual sentiment analysis provides an increasingly important approach to address many pivotal questions in behavioral finance. Not least because in today’s world a huge amount of information is stored as text instead of numeric data (Nasukawa and Nagano, 2001). As an example, Chen et al. (2014) analyzes articles published on Seeking Alpha and finds the fraction of negative words to be correlated with contemporaneous and subsequent stock returns. Tetlock (2007) emphasizes that high values of media pessimism induce downward pressure on market prices. Moreover, Li (2010) and Davis et al. (2012) investigate corporate disclosures such as earnings press releases or annual and quarterly reports and find disclosure tone to be associated with future firm performance. Sentiment analysis has also garnered increased attention in related real estate research in recent years. For example, Ruscheinsky et al. (forthcoming) extract sentiment from newspaper articles and analyze the relationship between measures of sentiment and US REIT prices. However, sentiment analysis in real estate still lacks behind. Whereas related research in accounting and finance investigates multiple disclosure outlets like news media, public corporate disclosures, analyst reports, and internet postings, real estate literature only covers a limited spectrum. Although, corporate disclosures are a natural source of textual sentiment for researchers since they are official releases that come from insiders who have better knowledge of the firm than outsiders (e.g. media-persons) they have not yet been analyzed in a real estate context (Kearney and Liu, 2014). By observing annual and quarterly reports of U.S. REITs present in the NAREIT over a 15-year timespan (2003 - 2017), this study examines whether the information disclosed in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) of U.S. REITs is associated with future firm performance and generates a market response. The MD&A is particularly suitable for the analysis because the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) mandates publicly traded firms to signal expectations regarding future firm performance in this section (SEC, 2003). To assess the tone of the MD&A, the Loughran and McDonald (2011) financial dictionary as well as a machine learning approach are employed. In order to allow a deeper understanding of disclosure practices, the study also observes readability of the MD&A and topics discussed in this section to examine whether those aspects are linked to either disclosure tone or future firm performance. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first study to analyze exclusively for REITs whether language in the MD&A is associated with future firm performance and if the market responds to unexpected levels of sentiment.

Gharehbaghi, Koorosh, Kathryn Robson, Neville Hurst, and Maged Georgy. "Melbourne's East West Link: A Missed Opportunity." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The aim of this paper is to review the abandoned "East West link road project" in Melbourne, Australia. Increased population growth, increasing life expectations and rates of family formation combine to place significant pressure on Melbourne’s infrastructure. In addition, the shift from rural to urban living -especially in Melbourne, exacerbates such impacts. Such demands expose the limitations of existing Melbourne transportation networks. As a consequence on-going transportation infrastructure planning is constantly required for greater Melbourne and its authorities, along with some alignment at the national level. Subsequently Melbourne transportation infrastructure planning needs to carefully adopt a long-term approach. While the processes of land acquisition, design and delivery of transportation infrastructure cannot be achieved in the short term, long-standing strategies need to be cautiously established. For Melbourne in particular, the financing of such long-term assets is problematic and thus possess uncertain conditions, especially when dealing with transportation forecasting and future modeling. Going back to mid-1990s such forward transportation planning was essential to ensure a high-level livability for Melbournians. As Melbourne continues to expand both in population and geographically it was to cope with such demand that the East West Link project was proposed. This project was seen as crucial, not only to uphold the livability status, but also to sustain and prolong Melbourne's ageing road transportation infrastructure. However, soon after their election win in late 2014, the Victorian labor government scrapped this project. In doing so, certain transportation outlook was unfortunately neglected. This paper investigates some of the key missed opportunities of the East West Link project.

Millanzi, Egino. "Methods of Housing Finance in Urban Tanzania." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Purpose-. Essentially, there are different housing finance methods applicable in mobilizing financial resources for housing development in developed and developing countries. The type and usefulness of these methods differ among countries, as well as within countries geographical area. Long term mortgage finance methods which perform better in developed countries, invariably underperform in developing countries. Large number of urban households are excluded in mortgage finance system. This paper seeks to determine the sources and methods of housing finance among households as well as their applicability in urban Tanzania.

Methodology- The paper starts with a presentation of the sources and methods of housing finance and discusses housing finance system from the perspective of system theory which encompass demand and supply subsystems. Several hypotheses based on questionnaires are tested through a questionnaire survey sent to 370 homeowners in surveyed and surveyed areas of Kinondoni Municipality, Dar es salaam city.

Findings-The study revealed that mortgage finance method is irrelevant in Tanzania. There is dominance of informal equity based methods such as personal income and profits from petty business, sweat equity, small loans from friends and relatives, pensions and gratuity, and remittances from family living abroad and within the country. Use of microfinances such as Saccos, Vicoba as well as microcredits from banks and other microfinance institutions also increases. The study further revealed that it takes 3 to 20 years to complete housing development with an average period of 8 years. These findings imply that incremental finance methods dominate housing market in urban Tanzania. Majority use multiple methods through progressive phases to finance housing development. 

Originality/value- Despite the constraints of mortgage finance and other long-term housing finance methods in developing countries. Microfinances which are compatible with incremental housing finance methods if improved can be useful to urban Tanzania housing market. Incremental housing strategy fits the requirements of urban poor which calls for fundamental policy innovations of this strategy and microfinance institutions.

Tsolacos, Sotiris, Nicole Lux, and . "Modeling Credit Spreads on Commercial Mortgage Loans." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The focus of the paper is to offer empirical evidence on the factors that influence the credit spread on commercial mortgage loans. We extend existing work on the pricing of commercial mortgage loans and examine the relative significance of a range of factors that are lender, asset and loan specific. Theory suggests that mortgages secured on property types that are perceived to be riskier should be priced higher. Empirically our model examines the impact of mortgage endogenous factors such as loan-to-value ratios, property types, loan size together with exogenous factors including lender and origination date on the commercial mortgage credit spreads. Furthermore, using an event study framework, we exploit the credit premium changes after global incidents including the 2008 financial crisis and the Brexit vote.

The paper makes use of a unique database in the UK. The dataset contains UK loan pricing data on a semi-annual basis from 2002 – 2018. Following the practice in existing work, the paper attempts to identify both cross-sectional and intertemporal influences on credit spreads.

Given the dearth of studies in this field in Europe this paper provides the basis for useful comparisons with the US literature. More importantly, it represents a valuable investigation for institutions engaging in commercial real estate lending in the search for yield. With regard to the latter, we take the analysis a step further. A comparison is made between observed mortgage credit spreads with corporate credit spreads of fixed income bonds with the same maturity and credit quality over the same time period. In this way, the paper defines a new industry-wide framework for setting underwriting and mortgage pricing terms.

Fahrner, Lena, Theresa Kotulla, and Elisabeth Beusker. "Motivations to become a member of a housing cooperative: Comparison of the national characteristics of Sweden, Germany and the USA." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Cooperative housing systems vary depending on different aspects for example in which urban context they are formed, which country specific legislation they observe and which purpose they suit. 

In general, a housing cooperative is a coalition of people, who wants to be shareholders of real estate projects. On one hand, being member of such a legal corporation is a kind of home ownership. The cooperative corporation owns the land and the buildings. On the other hand, members pay a monthly amount to cover the running expenses of all real estates of the cooperative. Summarizing, they live in the cooperative and they run the cooperative. 

Today, members of housing cooperatives have different motivations to become part of a cooperation. The affordability of the dwelling is just one of the advantages. Urban structures and residential markets change constantly. Furthermore, the expectations of the population regarding their housing conditions change. These are some of the reasons why the motivations to become member of a housing cooperative vary widely. 

Within this paper different cooperative housing systems in Sweden, Germany and the USA are analyzed and compared. Thereby, the focus is on the motivations of the members. The aim of this research is to illustrate the different motives of people to become part of a housing cooperative in the selected countries. Sweden, 

Cajias, Marcelo. "New Technology and Data in Real Estate." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Initial yields are used by institutional investors and investment managers to assess the pricing conditions of real estate markets. In contrast to commercial real estate, initial yields in the residential sector are hard to quantify, especially due to the lack of comparables. In the era of digitalisation and big data residential assets are mostly brought to the market via digital multiple listing systems. The paper develops semiparametric hedonic models for extracting the implicit information to calculate residential net initial yields for both a buy-to-hold and rental investment strategy based on more than 3 million observations. The results are robust and confirm that the pricing conditions of residential markets are captured by the hedonic approach, enhancing the transparency in real estate markets. 

Vuong, Henri, Vitaliy Tonenchuk, Edgar Orlovskis, Ivaylo Stoyanov, Rui Mendes, Jose Ramon, and Monsalve Linares. "New Technology and Data in Real Estate Education." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Ten years on from the global financial crisis and the non-listed real estate industry continues to evolve. Both players and products have continued to adapt to keep pace with the needs of the increasingly sophisticated approach to real estate investment decision making. Aided, especially of late, by the growing availability of information and data being aptly hailed as the hot commodity.

In the past, the real estate industry has primarily worked with data within proprietary software such as Excel, Argus, etc and with minimal transparency. However, with the increasing demand for more transparency, accessibility, and the will to extract more insights out of the data, the approach to data and technology in the Real Estate industry has been changing.

This has led to greater standardisation in the data and methodologies used to extract information out of it. Organisations are going through rapid changes in the way data is collected, processed, and shared. Collaborative tools are on the rise, such as INREV’s online analysis tools.

At the same time, security and privacy concerns have also increased and have also come under increased regulatory scrutiny. Regulations such as the EU GDPR has brought important measures to protect the collection, handling, and processing of sensitive data.

Over the last 15 years, INREV has answered to the needs of the European non-listed real estate industry through global standards, a suite of market data and distribution. The underlying foundation for these activities is a set of software tools to enable data collection, validation and storage in a secure environment. 

INREV’s rapidly growing suite of data is providing new opportunities for research and analysis in areas previously unexplored, thus enabling the next wave of education in the private real estate industry.

This presentation will provide participants with an understanding of the data practices of the European Association for Investors in Non-Listed Real Estate Vehicles as well as provide inspiration for future research opportunities.

Coen, Alain, Raphael Languillon, Arnaud Simon, and Saadallah Zaiter. "Of Financialization and Metropolization. The case of the European REITs sector." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The aim of this paper is to investigate if financialization and metropolization are two converging dynamics.  We aim to verify if the most financialized European public property companies are also the main actors in the metropolization process through their portfolio arbitrages. We find that, between 2002 and 2016, the financialized European public property companies (F-companies) and the non-financialized European public property companies (NF-companies) exhibit a tendency to disinvest the non-urban spaces, to reinvest in the Hinterlands for the NF-companies, to reinvest in the Core for the F-companies, at least in relative terms. We also find that, in relative terms, the F-companies reallocated their portfolio toward the Large metropoles, in particular in Germany, France and Switzerland while the non-financialized REITs shifted their portfolio toward the others segments (exclusively toward the Metropoles segment for Sweden). Belgium is exception, with a reversed evolution. In order to analyze the differences in the behavior of F-companies and NF-companies, we introduce a new score transparency index. Our results suggest that F-companies are more transparent than NF-companies. They are larger in size, less dominated by insiders, are followed by more analysts and they have greater institutional ownership. The results of a logistic regression also show that F-companies have higher liquidity than NF-companies.
Razak, Muhammad Zaim, and Damian Damianov. "On the dynamic interactions between sector-level REITs, their direct real estate counterparts and the stock market in Japan." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Despite their short history of existence, Japanese REITs (J-REITs) play an increasingly important role as a vehicle for property investment. In this paper we examine the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between REITs, direct real estate assets, and the stock market in Japan. Using a vector error correction model, we explore whether J-REITs behave like direct real estate assets or like common stocks. Our study is based on general and sector specific appraisal-based monthly real estate indices covering the retail, office, residential and hotel sectors. Cointegration as well as exclusion, and weak exogeneity tests indicate that in the long run J-REITs are good substitutes for direct real estate assets but not for stocks. That is, they are a liquid alternative to unsecuritised real estate which offers diversification benefits to long-horizon investment in the Japanese stock market. These findings are robust and hold across all real estate sectors.  Analysis of forecast error variance decompositions and impulse responses shows that shocks to the J-REITs market have a substantial impact on the direct real estate market and the stock market. In contrast, shocks these two markets contribute substantially less of the forecast error variance of J-REITs. Further, Granger causality tests reveal a unidirectional causal relationship from J-REITs to the other asset classes providing evidence that information aggregation and price discovery occurs predominantly in the J-REITs market.  

Kuiper, Niels, Mark Van Duijn, and Arno Van der Vlist. "On Urban Redevelopment, Jobs and the Local Economy: Displacement or Local Incubator?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Local urban redevelopment policy measures which entail the transformation of obsolete inner-city industrial areas target the local economy by bringing jobs and prosperity to the neighborhood. These transformed areas attract higher-income households into the neighborhood, bringing about a new era of gentrification and local jobs. The influx of spending power subsequently boosts the local economy. The policy issue is whether urban redevelopment constitutes an incubator or spurs a displacement of jobs. The outcome is far-reaching as considerable amounts of public funds are utilized to shape the urban economy. If redevelopment would spur a displacement of jobs, then this would crowd-out jobs in other neighborhoods. The topic of this research is to identify the causal linkage between urban redevelopment and the local economy.  

Transforming urban areas entails a place-based treatment to the local economy (Koster and Van Ommeren, 2019). Local transformation and the redevelopment of unused industrial cultural heritage have been undertaken in many cities in many countries. For example, more than 200 sites have been redeveloped in the Netherlands over the last twenty years. Instead of leaving the cultural heritage unused, or clearing the sites to make place for new development, policy makers choose for the option of redevelopment because they argue two positive externalities will result from it. First, the redevelopment of cultural heritage is said to positively impact the living environment of the surrounding areas due to the unique esthetics and character of cultural heritage. Second, the redevelopment is also said to positively impact the local economy by providing unique workplaces that will attract firms from the creative sector, who generate local spillovers. Remarkably, few studies have tried to evaluate these externalities empirically. This is particularly important since the presumed externalities are used to justify large public place-based investments. 

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of redevelopment projects on the local economy. We propose a modeling framework to study the direct and indirect effects of the redevelopment projects. We examine micro level data on registered firms and employment in the Netherlands covering the period 1996-2016. We combine the jobs data with a dataset covering 188 urban redevelopment projects. We demonstrate that the spatial detail of the data, in combination with the use of GIS software, provides information on exact numbers of jobs present within a redevelopment project, as well as its surrounding area. 

Preliminary findings suggest that the redevelopment of cultural heritage results in a positive direct effect on employment within the site that is redeveloped. Only a small fraction of the jobs that are created within the redevelopment projects are within the creative industries. This is interesting since this is the sector that is expected to be most drawn to cultural heritage, and a sector that theoretically generates large spillovers. Further analyses consider indirect effects of the redevelopment of cultural heritage. This gives insight into whether or not the direct effects of the redevelopment generate positive spillovers for the surrounding area, or displacement of jobs. 

Acolin, Arthur. "Owning vs. Renting: The benefits of staying put?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This article analyses how differences in outcomes between owner and renter households vary across countries based on institutional features such as rental lease lengths. A substantial literature is devoted to identifying benefits associated with owning relative to renting (including in terms of civic participation, income, children educational outcomes, health) and the mechanisms driving these differences. The higher level of residential stability associated with homeownership has been identified as a potential driver. This paper uses microdata from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) for 24 countries to explore whether differences in outcomes between owners are renters vary across countries and whether they are systematically smaller when the differences in length of residence across tenure is smaller. Given the wide differences in tenure mix and length of residence across European countries, the EU-SILC data provides the opportunity to identify to what extent outcomes such as income, workforce participation, life satisfaction and social engagement are more similar across tenure types when length of residence is more similar. The results indicate that the direction of the relationship between tenure and the selected outcomes tend to be similar across countries although stronger in some than other with owners generally obtaining more desirable outcomes. When looking at the relationship between differences in length of tenure for owners and renters and outcomes, findings suggest that owners have outcomes more similar to renters in countries in which the difference is smaller. These results point to the potential benefits of policies that would increase residential stability for renters.

Park, Abraham, and Maretno Agus Harjoto. "Performance Effects of Corporate Real Estate Ownership for the Retail Industry." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper is an exploratory study into the performance effects of corporate real estate (CRE) ownership for retail companies in the US.  In the recent years, many brick-and-mortar retail stores have announced massive closings (as announced in 2018, 142 Sears locations will be closed, while Toys “R” Us filed for bankruptcy and announced shutting down all 800 locations).  These struggles, along with the rise of e-commerce, signal significant changes in the CRE strategies for retail firms going forward.  According to Gibson and Barkham (2001), CRE is closely linked to the business strategy of companies in the retail sector.  As retail companies seek to assemble valuable CRE portfolios that can generate sustainable competitive advantages, inferior or inefficient locations can significantly undermine their long-term financial performance.  On one hand, portfolio theory suggests that if real estate assets have a different risk profile than that of the operating business, then CRE ownership has the potential to provide diversification benefit to firms with high levels of property holdings. On the other hand, Tuzel (2010) has asserted that real estate risk is systematic, and CRE investment is riskier than investment in other types of capital for the firm due to slow depreciation of real estate.  Therefore, firms with high real estate holdings are hurt more during recessions (Tuzel, 2010).  For these reasons, CRE ownership has the potential to significantly impact the performance of retail companies. 

Dabara, Daniel, Adebayo Ogunba, John Oyekunle Soladoye, and Augustina Chiwuzie. "Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts In African Real Estate Markets: A Case Study of Nigeria." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Purpose: This study examined the correlations among the structure, conduct and performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Nigeria (N-REITs) with a view to providing information that will enhance and guide real estate investment decisions. 

Design/Methods followed/Approach: The study population consisted of all the three REIT companies in Nigeria namely: Skye Shelter Fund, Union Home REITs and UACN Property Development Company (UPDC) REITs. Secondary data on dividends and share prices of N-REITs; Total Business Revenues (TBR) and Total Individual Expenditure (TIE) on conduct variables were sourced from periodicals of the respective companies covering the period from 2008 to 2016. The data series for the study were analyzed by means of the Granger Causality tests, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schimidt-Shin (KPSS) unit root tests, Philip-Perron (PP) unit root tests and the ordinary least square regression (OLS).  

Findings: The study showed a Herfindahl Hischman Index (HHI) that ranged between 41.81% (recorded in 2010) and 100% recorded in 2008. This suggested a high concentration in the N-REITs industry. Similarly, the study found that the returns on investment in the industry ranged between -0.24% and 22.07%. The Granger Causality Test conducted revealed a bi-directional causal relationship among the structure, conduct and performance of N-REITs.

Practical Implication: The study provided essential information for stakeholders in the real estate sector regarding the influence of structure and conduct on the performance of N-REITs. This information will be valuable for equipping asset managers, insurance companies, pension funds as well as individual real estate investors in making informed investment decisions. 

Originality/Value: This study is unique as it is the first to draw a link between the structure, conduct and performance of REITs in an African emerging real estate market which was hitherto not considered in previous studies.

Nikolaiev, Vsevolod, and Oleksii Kucherenko. "Prevention of housing stock collapse in Ukraine requires extraordinary strategic decisions." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The whole housing stock in Ukraine is practically private. Social housing fund is almost absent. In the 1990s most of the flats in the multi-apartment buildings have been privatized by the tenants free of charge. About 80% of all buildings in the cities have been built up to 1980, are not yet repaired and require urgent modernization with the cost equal to the actual State budget revenue. 

By the law of 2015 the responsibility for carrying out capital repairs has been transferred to the flat owners who are co-owners of the buildings.  Maintenance management is organized only on the level of separate houses (no-associations) and is unprofessional. The tariff for housing services is enormous low because the component of capital repairs traditionally has been excluded. In the worst homes live exactly the poorest families which do not have any means to maintain and repair their houses because one half of all families in the country receive subsidies to pay their utility bills. 

Taking into account other urgent and costly needs to maintain public infrastructure the State is also unable to accumulate sufficient funds to renovate the housing stock. At the same time there is a difficult question of the justice of additional state assistance to homeowners for repairing their assets at the expense of all taxpayers. Another question is how to operate this private property on the market. 

Governments of the country that often replace each other are afraid to raise this problem, which requires extraordinary decisions. It becomes obvious that homeowners are mostly inefficient but the idea of re-privatization can cause social rejection. 

There are no analogues in the history or in other post-Soviet countries, where either the condition of privatized houses was better, or household incomes were higher, or state aid was regular and where, due to the tariff, funds for capital repairs has been always accumulated and used.

Unfortunately, in Ukraine there is no tradition of real estate professional management as a scientific branch, university specialization or profession. Our first attempts to find right decisions which will be described in the paper need approbation. Therefore, we want to draw attention of the best European real estate managers and researchers to the resolution of this problem. 

Akcay, Sariye. "Private Credit and Housing Prices in the European Union Perspective." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Housing Prices; Private Credit; the European Union

The interaction between credit supply and housing prices can have an important effect on the economy because developments in either the housing markets or the mortgage  markets can influence the whole financial sector or even the economy. In fact, the US subprime mortgage crisis which started in the second half of 2007 confirmed the importance of the interaction between both markets. Although there are numerous studies on the interaction between credit and housing prices at a country level, there are few cross-country studies. the first aim of the study is to examine the dynamic relationship between private credit and housing prices at both cross- country  and country level in the EU. Secondly, the effect of  the different monetary strategy within the EU on this relationhip will be investigated. Thirdly, the direction and size of this interaction  will be explored  by considering the different sub-samples as well as some individual countries in the EU. For this purpose, two methods are used: the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and the simultaneous equations model. The latter is applied for robustness check. The findings of the study show that the direction and size of this interaction change among the sub-groups of the EU. This is the same for the individual countries in the Eurozone.

Sreball, Ann-Christin. "Promoting cooperation between property developers and municipalities - Analysis of communication needs." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Real estate is closely linked to urban development since space is a major factor of urban competitiveness; while a successful property development is dependent on suitable patterns of legal rights, which are specified by municipalities (e.g. D´Arcy & Keogh 1999, Renigier-Bilozor et al. 2016). According to this interdependence, property developers and municipalities have a mutual interest in functioning urban structures. However, divergent perspectives and interests seemingly impede a collaborative partnership between both stakeholder groups. Consequences of this contradiction are, for example, considerable delays and cost overruns of construction projects, while causes continue to be a lack of communication and unwillingness to cooperate (Bone-Winkel & Gerstner 2005; Meyer and Pfnür 2015). 

In this respect, the paper focusses on communication needs, which will be discussed on the basis of three workshops held in 4th quarter 2018. To make sure that the participants would not feel offended by the presence of the opposite party, there were two separate workshops with municipal representatives as well as property developers to analyse self-conceptions, expectations as well as working-methods. The third workshop served as a synthesis of the previous ones and was attended by participants from both stakeholder groups.

It is found out, that both stakeholder groups are ambitious to act as partners, still trust is strongly personalised. Nevertheless, to increase mutual trust, joint dialogue and working platforms are demanded by both parties during the whole project development. It is recommended to focus on the topic, instead of personal roles. Property developers in particular should not approach municipalities with ready-made concepts, but should develop location- and project-related ideas together with the municipal administration.

The conference contribution will highlight the findings of the workshops in detail. Drawn conclusions and recommended actions will be put up for discussion. Furthermore, the findings of the workshops are going to serve as a base for further expert interviews. 

Nadler, Michael, and Claudia Nadler. "Promoting sustainable real estate development through financial engine¬ering instruments – assessing the impact of an innovative EU urban policy initiative." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Between 2007 and 2016, the European Commission invested € 1.8 billion in a new policy initiative called JESSICA (Joint European Support for Sustainable Investment in City Areas). Since especially European cities perceived a shortage of investment dedicated to urban regeneration projects, JESSICA shall finance more than 2,000 higher risk projects in order to create an economic stimulus. At the same time, JESSICA is part of a general paradigm shift in EU-policy, since its most innovative element is to introduce an alternative to traditional grant funding by providing financial instruments – namely loans, guarantees and equity capital – on a revolving base. This means that instead of financing sustainable urban development projects with grants that are – once paid out – lost for good, revolving financial instruments for successful projects may generate a capital backflow enabling Managing Authorities to reinvest in new urban development projects. 

In order to channel funds effectively to sustainable urban projects, the institutional framework of the JESSICA-initiative intends to set up urban development funds as financial intermediary. The special challenge of JESSICA is to combine these financial engineering instruments with integrated urban planning issues in a sustainable fund model. Thus, the three main objectives of the JESSICA- initiative are (i) to promote urban development projects as economic stimulus, (ii) to provide cost-effective, long-term financing to support urban transformation in a sustainable fund model and (iii) to mobilize private capital for public-private partnerships. Concerning the latter, the JESSICA-initiative shall attract private investors and banks to finance sustainable urban development by providing catalytic first-loss capital via UDFs that lowers the risk and enhances the return of private investors, therefore making more projects feasible and overcoming existing market failures. However, at the end of the first EU-programming period to introduce revolving financial instruments (2016) it is not yet clear whether the new policy approach is as effective as European decision-makers believe. This is mainly because up to now there is no empirical evaluation available on how successful JESSICA has been so far in achieving its ambitious objectives. 

Therefore, we first develop a conceptual base to efficient urban development funds. Our succeeding empirical approach is the first one to cover the impact of this innovative EU-initiative in all 28 EU member states by making outcomes of the policy change measurable in monetary terms through regression analyses. Our main findings reveal that absorption of funds to be invested in sustainable urban projects takes far longer than expected due to the complex structure of the fund model, which in return leads to higher costs. Impact measurement of external effects seems to be a great challenge for fund managers, too. Apart from that, no private investors or banks have contributed their own equity/risk capital in the JESSICA-initiative so far. Based on these findings, we develop practical implications on how to reform the JESSICA-initiative in the current EU-programming period. At the same time, our work is the first one to give research implications on how to derive key success factors for sustainable urban finance, especially addressing the challenge of impact measurement and ultra-long financing horizons.

Xiang, Dan, and Jianping Gu. "Property Tax and Price-to-Rent Ratio in China: A Counterfactual Analysis." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

In the 19th National Congress of China, the central government proposed that instead of speculation houses are for living, and will construct long-term mechanism to stabilize housing prices. To achieve the national strategic target, the legislation of property tax in China has been speeding up. Shanghai and Chongqing, as two experimental cases, have implemented property tax system since Jan. 2011. 

From the literature review, the main research area is the effect of property tax on housing prices. On the one hand, the prices of houses fall by the present value because of the projected increase of holding costs, see e.g. Van den Noord(2005), Cebula(2009) and Kuang(2012). On the other hand, because of the improved local public services quality, the housing price will increase, see e.g. Oates(1969), Fischel(1992) and Lang and Jian(2004). However, housing prices do not fully represent the stability of housing market. price-to-rent ratios are commonly used by scholars to gauge the degree of speculation in the housing market. 

In the paper, we evaluate the effect of trial property taxes on housing price-to-rent ratio making use of a counterfactual analysis, exploiting the dependence of housing prices among different cities. We use the leave-nv-out cross-validation criterion for the optimal choice of the control cities, where property tax has not been implemented, and construct the counterfactual price-to-rent ratios in Shanghai and Chongqing by comparing with the control cities. 

The empirical result shows that property taxes have different effects on different types of houses. The result suggests that in order to curb the soaring housing prices, property tax is a ‘future-oriented’ policy. But it should be different in different cities, and different house type should be corresponding to different policy.

Van der Vlist, Arno, and Jos Van Ommeren. "Public Housing, Waiting lists and Lotteries." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. We examine welfare outcomes for non-market allocation mechanisms of public housing. We make use of a quasi-natural experiment in Amsterdam where public houses are allocated through lotteries to households already on waiting lists. We demonstrate that a lottery reduces waiting time by 8.5 years and offers benefits to lottery winners. Households in public housing value these benefits at about €875 per year. We demonstrate that the lottery experiment resulted in different – and less efficient – household and public housing matches than those based on waiting time. Using a structural approach, the annual welfare loss associated with lottery due to an inefficient match is estimated to be €275 for each public house. JEL: C78 D82 R21 R31.
Jackson, Cath, Allison Orr, Joanna Stewart, and James White. "Real estate adaptation and innovation: diversity and landownership." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The retail sector is fundamental to many local, regional and national economies and social structures, yet is experiencing a prolonged period of change and uncertainty. Rapid and significant changing consumer behaviour, retailer rationalisation and financial pressures, and increasing concerns over anti-social behaviour and the accessibility and security of traditionally public places are significant economic and social drivers of change. Policy-makers, in response to such challenges, have sought to respond by seeking to enable the re-creation of more resilient and adaptable centres within the UK’s retailing hierarchy, recognising and supporting their role as multi-functional places. Here, we begin a new research project that seeks to explore resilience in the retail sector using the five case study cities of Edinburgh, Glasgow, Hull, Liverpool and Nottingham. The first step is mapping previously disparate strands of secondary data to begin to reveal links between ownership, use, the allocation of space for diverse service provision, leisure and social interaction and the adaptive capacity of the built environment. These data have not been brought together previously and, to do so, represents a very significant challenge and a significant opportunity for the advancement of knowledge. The consequent analysis of urban change will reveal areas not previously explored or, therefore, understood.
Coen, Alain, Benoit Carmichael, and Alain Coen. "Real Estate as a Common Risk Factor in the Financial Sector: International Evidence." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. This article studies the role of real estate as a potential risk factor in the financial sector returns over the period running from February 1990 to December 2015 for a sample of 14 countries. We develop and test parsimonious Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Models (ICAPM) including a systematic risk and a real estate risk factor. We suggest two factors to capture the real estate risk measures in two complementary dimensions. The EPRA index is used to valuate the domestic real estate risk. Besides, to illustrate the role played by the US real estate as a potential contagion risk factor, we develop a US real estate risk premium. Used separately or combined in a three-factor model, both risk factors report the presence of a real estate risk factor. Our results show that the real estate risk in its both dimensions is priced in the financial sector. If the domestic real estate risk factor is valued, the US real estate factor seems to be often prevalent. It raises the question of a potential contagion effect.
Püschel, Veronika, and Johannes Strobel. "Real Estate Economics." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Even after the end of the recent Great Recession period, U.S. housing prices and real estate loans continued to decline, while the uncertainty associated with the housing market remained elevated. This paper shows that an increase in uncertainty with respect to housing demand, i.e. a time-varying second moment of housing preferences, generates these dynamics and implies adverse effects for key macroeconomic aggregates such as output and consumption: An increase in housing preference volatility dampens housing prices which reduces the collateral value, borrowing activity and translates to a decrease in aggregate economic activity. Finally, we find these results to be broadly in line with the data.

Newell, Graeme, and Jufri Marzuki. "Real Estate Finance and Investment." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Private equity investing has taken on increased importance in recent years with the major institutional investors such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. This includes the private equity sectors such as buyouts, venture capital and distressed etc.; as well as private equity real estate. Key private equity players such as Blackstone, Brookfield and Lone Star etc. have been active in the private equity real estate space in recent years. This paper assesses the risk-adjusted performance and diversification benefits of private equity real estate against the other private equity sectors over 2001-2017. The strategic global real estate investment implications are also highlighted. 
Bindo, Sara, Gianluca Mattarocci, and Simone Roberti. "Real estate funds specialized in the Italian hotel industry: a case study analysis." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Real estate industry is looking for new asset classes characterized by a different risk-return profile with respect to standard classes (offices, retail, residential, etc…) and the hotel industry represents a new asset class where the real estate funds are looking for new investment opportunities. The performance analysis of the hotel industry shows that the hospitality industry performs differently with respect to other real estate asset classes and there are significant differences on the basis of the location and the quality standard of the hotel structure.

The performance in the hotel industry is significantly affected by the reputation of the hotel and its capability to maximize the RevPAR (through the optimization of the ADR and Occupancy rate) of the hospitality infrastructure. The performance drivers of this asset class are not comparable to other real estate types and skills and information necessary for evaluating investment opportunities in the hospitality industry are unique and not frequently available for fund managers operating in the other real ester sector.

Literature on diversification strategy in the hotel industry is still limited and there are only few evidences outside US about the performance of hotel specialized real estate portfolios. The paper analyses the Italian industry and provide evidence on the performance achieved by the opportunities related to the hotel industry by considering the case study methodology. Results highlight that the performance of the hotel industry is different with respect to other real estate asset classes and the portfolio composition criteria normally adopted for specialized real estate funds are unique and focused prevalently on the revenues forecast and the rent sustainability. 

Delfim, Jean-Christophe, and Martin Hoesli. "Real Estate in Mixed-Asset Portfolios for Various Investment Horizons." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. This research investigates the role of real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio for various investment horizons.  Using U.S. data spanning almost three decades, we report that medium to long term investors should allocate 20% of their portfolio to direct real estate.  In contrast, short term investors should focus on open-end core funds, which are found to be good substitutes for direct investments.  REITs are usually of limited interest as a substitute for direct real estate, but they could be used in conjunction with direct investments for medium and long term horizons, as they partly substitute for stocks.  Value-added and opportunistic closed-end funds are found to be imperfect substitutes for direct investments.  Finally, we find that including commodities, private equity, and hedge funds in a portfolio enhances its performance but the allocation to real estate barely changes.
Huijbregts, Rowie, Erwin Heurkens, and Fred Hobma. "Real estate investors’ maturity in using corporate social responsibility to develop sustainable properties." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Pressing societal and environmental challenges influence real estate investment and development. Due to urbanization, gentrification, climate change and resource scarcity, the global call for more responsible and sustainable market behaviour has grown. As such, the notion of CSR has gained global attention in the real estate industry. Today, real estate investors voluntarily explore corporate solutions to societal and environmental issues. They setup organizational units to manage CSR programmes and report on CSR achievements. This has resulted in a vast amount of socially responsible behaviour and investment policies and reports, based on frameworks such as GRI, GRESB, ESG, LEED, BREEAM and WELL, which, in turn, appear to influence the chance for market success, reputation and value of companies.

Although this suggests that CSR has become a common feature in the global real estate sector, the origin of CSR and its meaning and implementation in business practice are often unclear to practitioners – especially within Continental Europe. This stems from the fact that CSR is associated with the Anglo-Saxon model of society, and not with the Rhineland model of society which exists in north-western Europe. Yet, due to the connectedness of social and economic systems, the real estate sector in Continental Europe is under influence of Anglo‐Saxon characteristics such as liberalization, privatization and deregulation – ingredients for CSR to flourish. This leads to the following research question: How do real estate investors use CSR to develop sustainable properties?

In order to answer the research question, a cross case analysis is performed based upon semi-structured interviews and document review. The cases (i.e., real estate investment companies) are chosen from Anglo-Saxon countries, being the USA and Hong Kong, and from a Rhineland country, being the Netherlands. CSR usage is analysed on (a) the strategic level of the case companies, (b) the institutional level (CSR reporting) and (c) the project level (construction projects). Based upon the common CSR characteristics of the Anglo-Saxon and Rhineland practices – as far as represented by the selected cases – a CSR maturity model for real estate investors is developed. The model is used to rank the maturity of the CSR programmes of the three real estate investors studied.

A number of common characteristics are found in the use of CSR. All real estate investors studied (a) use a formal materiality assessment to determine important core business related CSR issues; (b) aim to formulate CSR goals that are specific and measurable; (c) strive to find a CSR management structure that fits the characteristics of the company; and (d) use CSR and sustainability certification methods and reporting guidelines as a structuring device for setting up a CSR policy. Furthermore, it became apparent that only a minor part of the material issues used by the case companies relates to the actual built environment. Finally, the maturity of CSR use by the three real estate investors differs substantially, as illustrated by the higher level of maturity of, in order, the Hong Kongese, American and Dutch case.

Engerstam, Sviatlana, and Henry Gonza Muyingo. "Redefining Net Operating Income in a shared economy environment." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Shared economy brings new challenges to business model development on the commercial property market. This implies that property owners and operators are continuously developing new forms of rental contracts and new ways of managing investment properties. There is a growing need for a closer understanding of the challenges this entails in the valuation of such properties. Traditional models of valuation based on long-term contracts or flexible leases need modification to cater for the dynamic changes witnessed in the operation and management of investment properties. 

This study provides an analysis of existing forms of rental contracts and rental strategies for the properties that operate in a shared economy environment like co-working spaces and a discussion of the major components of revenue and cost for such properties as well as the value generating process. The purpose of the study is to redefine different concepts used in property valuation in relation to risk and value with the aim of providing a more reliable way of property valuation that takes into account the aspects of a shared economy. 

The qualitative study that is primarily based on interviews with property owners and operators indicates a need to revise the definition of net operating income used for valuation of the properties operated in a shared economy environment.

Wagner, Dominik, René-Ojas Woltering, Steffen Sebastian, and David Downs. "REIT Conversions at a global Perspective - Why Do REOCs Adopt the REIT Status?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are well-known institutions since their establishment back in the 1960s at least in the United States. Since the midst of 1990s, the regime spread across the globe. Although their regulatory elaborations differ across countries, the formal requirements remain almost similar.

So why is it, REITs became a success story in only some parts of the world? 

Economic theory postulates several reasons for achieving the tax-exempt status. However, there are practical up- and downsides of course. This paper classifies the severity of regulations, incorporates agency issues and reveals driving forces of listed real estate companies, which influence the decision to opting the REIT status. Thus, balance sheet data as well as legal formalities and specific environments of each corresponding country are incorporated.

In academic literature, there are numerous papers tackling REITs in various aspects. Nevertheless, scant is examined about incentives, which affect the decision of stationary firms to convert.

Since REITs are quite homogenous and transparent, this entity type is predestinated to serve in a global comparison. Therefore, listed property companies quoted on each domestic market, in which the REIT regime is already established, and listed at the EPRA/NAREIT global real estate index, were observed over the years from 1998 to 2017. To conclude significant influence a panel logistic regression model figures out key characteristics for a higher probability of adopting the REIT status. The overall results suggest a strong causal effect on the capital structure in the subsequent post intervention periods, while elements like size, leverage, discounts of adopting and tax benefits seem to matter most at considering for conversion in the transnational context.

Downs, David, and Bing Zhu. "REITs, Underlying Property Markets and Liquidity: A Firm Level Analysis." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper examines the impact of underlying property market liquidity on the liquidity of publicly traded REIT shares. Our analysis measures firm-level exposure to local, direct real estate market liquidity using the property allocation of each REIT. The findings show that property market liquidity can causally influence the liquidity of real estate securities. This is especially true during the crisis period, which confirms with the notion that illiquidity is transmitted from direct to indirect property markets. The results also reveal that the liquidity of a firm’s assets can affect the liquidity of financial claims on the assets. The corporate investment decision, including the selection of a geographic market, can affect stock liquidity. Furthermore, we find that the sensitivity to underlying asset liquidity changes with the firm’s credit constraint and investment opportunities. Small REITs, REITs with a lower cash interest coverage ratio, and REITs with a higher book-to-market ratio might choose to invest in more liquid property markets to improve their stock liquidity. Finally, we find that underlying asset liquidity is associated with REIT values.

Lux, Nicole. "Relevance of loan characteristics in probability of default prediction for commercial mortgage loans." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The current papers examines the sensitivity of loan characteristics on mortgage default probability for UK commercial mortgages. Commercial real estate (CRE) mortgages are major asset holdings for commercial banks, life insurance companies and thrift institutions. The slumping market for real estate threatened to drag down regional banks and other smaller financial institutions in the 08/09 financial crisis and led to the collapse of some financial institutions. Despite the prominence of CRE mortgages, modeling and analysing credit risk of CRE mortgages has been lagging behind those of non-CRE commercial loans. Modelling the probability of default for commercial real estate mortgages is more complicated than that for non-commercial real estate loans. Many distressed loans passed traditional underwriting standards suggesting that, in addition to LTV and DSCR ratios, other characteristics should be taken into consideration such as the inclusion property characteristics. The accuracy of default prediction is tested comparing two traditional statistical methods a) logistic regression (logit) and b) multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) using a unique dataset of defaulted commercial loan portfolios from 60 financial institutions lending in the UK between 2005 – 2017. Overall, both models show that the inclusion of property characteristics such as geography and asset type have been significant factors in determining default probability and improve model accuracy, while LTV shows no clear significance.

Coen, Alain, Benoit Lefebvre, Richard Malle, and Arnaud Simon. "Rental adjustment in European office markets: global or local effect?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The purpose of this study is to deeply investigate the rental dynamics of the European office market during a long period (2002-2017). This paper analyses the global and local dynamics of the 26 largest European office markets. First we estimate a dynamic panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) modelling. Then, we estimate the same equation for each market individually. Our modelling at two levels highlights a significant heterogeneity across European office markets. Finally, we revisit the natural vacancy rate theory. We show that European office markets currently exhibit vacancy rates below their natural rates suggesting relevant opportunities for real estate portfolio investors.
Hien, Yannis, Christian Hofstadler, and Felix Meckmann. "Requirements for technical property assessments (technical due diligence) based on different risk-reward profiles." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Purpose: Real estate due diligence, and particularly technical due diligence as one of its sub-disciplines, is an established component of professional real estate transactions in Germany. Technical due diligence deals with the actual property risks. More generally, technical due diligence can be described as a technical property assessment. Practical experience, an empirical survey carried out in June 2017 and initial interviews with real estate experts showed that there is no general understanding of the components, depth and presentation of results of technical property assessments in property transactions. This study aims to develop a scientific understanding of the concept of technical property assessments among the different market players involved in property transactions.

Methodology: The data of this study are based on the evaluation of existing scopes of services and technical due diligence exercises, as well as on a market survey (February 2019). The market survey was carried out online among 300 experts from the real estate industry working in the fields of investment management, asset management, and real estate financing.

Key Findings: The key outcomes of the survey (see appendix for its design) are not yet available; they will be submitted as soon as possible after completion of the study, which is scheduled to last from 28 January 2019 to 18 February 2019, and analysed by 31 March 2019. The views of the various market players are presented and discussed as a function of their risk profiles for the purpose and quality evaluation of the technical property assessment as well as their examination components. The survey particularly focuses on the users’ need for information and the associated relevant components of the technical property assessment.

Impact: This study serves as a basis for conducting expert interviews to develop a uniform scope of services for technical property assessments. It opens up the potential for presenting the first available primary data for an in-depth scientific evaluation of technical property assessments within the scientific discipline of real estate economics.

Hu, Yuanrui, and Ping Lyu. "Research on the Impact and Mechanism of Talent Introduction Policy on Urban Housing Price - An Empirical Analysis Based on Nanjing, Wuhan and Xi'an." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Research purposes: Starting from the relationship between population policy and housing market, this paper explores the impact and mechanism of talent introduction policy on local housing price, so as to provide basis for the corresponding policy adjustment. Research methods: theoretical mechanism analysis, quantitative empirical analysis. Research content: From the perspective of human capital theory, this paper explores the mechanism of talent introduction policy on housing price, including "government-oriented effect" and "human capital effect". Based on the macro-data of the National Bureau of Statistics, Wind, Habitat and other institutions, through the analysis of DID-PSM, we find that the policy of talent introduction has a net effect on the local housing price. The urban housing price increase of the policy of talent introduction is obviously higher than that of other cities of the same grade in the same period, showing the characteristics of unstable rise. The conclusion is that the policy of talent introduction has led to the realization of quantity growth and spatial agglomeration of human capital in the cities where the policy was issued in a short period of time, which are the important reasons for the two core characteristics of rising house prices. The greater the policy effect of talent introduction policy is, the higher the local housing price will be. Most of the housing price growth brought by human capital belongs to the "rigid demand", but we should also be alert to the speculative behavior of real estate under the "government-oriented effect", which can easily lead to the excessive growth of housing prices and create resistance to the introduction of talents.
Pourcelot, Alexis. "Residential rent indices in a long-term trend for the french case: An application of the hedonic method." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The purpose of this paper is to understand the housing rents formation and their dynamics over almost half century (1970-2013) by sector (private/public) and location (Paris region, big, medium and small urban areas). We underline the role played by physical and locational characteristics in the formation of rents. Dynamics and cycles in rents over the period are tackled using macro-economic factors as well as market variables and housing policy. Likewise, we are able to show the impact of specific housing policies such as APL on rents. This stratified approach, will give a relevant overview of the French market for international investors. Likewise, valuation of asset prices is relevant and useful for practitioners (appraisers, brokers, developers, investors, fund managers, analysts and market researchers) but also policy-makers. In order to conduct this analysis we will use the French Housing Survey from the French Statistical and Economic Study Institute (INSEE). This survey describes the French housing stock as well as the household tenure choice and their housing consumption. Physical characteristics and dwelling quality such as size, sanitary convenience, heating, location, environment and security are topics addressed by the survey. The physical and contractual variables used in the empirical strategy got a high power of explanation of our stratified model. Regarding time variation, we expect a positive change of rents over the period 1970-2013. Nevertheless, when we focus on the real rent variation, we find that variation is spatially heterogeneous across urban areas. We also find several cycles in the rental market with a strong decrease in real rent in all urban areas over the period 1970-1984. Likewise, we highlight the inflationary effect of APL (housing subsidy) on rents.
Haran, Martin, , and Stanimira Milcheva. "Returns and Persistence of Private Equity Infrastructure Funds." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

About 10% of all infrastructure finance in the post-GFC era has been channelled into the asset class via Private Equity Infrastructure Funds (PEIFs). In spite of the marked expansion in PEIFs, and their increased utilisation within the mainstream institutional investment community, there is a dearth of academic research on the performance characteristics of the unlisted infrastructure funds universe. There is only limited understanding of PE returns and capital inflows and outflows. This paper uses individual funds’ cash flow data from Preqin to construct three measures of performance – the internal rate of return (IRR), the ratio of total value – cash realisations plus remaining net asset value (NAV) – to paid in capital (TVPI) and the public market equivalent (PME).  

Findings suggest that investors should exercise caution in their interpretation of ‘reported’ fund performance particularly when an existing fund is reporting results whilst a ‘legacy fund’ is capital raising.  However, we do find that returns persist across follow-on funds within the same firm.  Pertinently, our analysis shows that the degrees of explanatory power are greater for second previous funds than for immediate predecessor funds. Our results also show IRR to be a very weak performance indicator within the PEIF universe due in part to the sensitivities in cash flow timings (or reported timings) and the impact of NAV inflation of IRR.  Using PME increases predictability significantly and affords a much more robust performance indicator in instances where funds have not fully liquidated. Pertinently, the fund size was not identified as a key determinant of fund performance based upon our cash flow data sample although subsector focus and the domicile of the GP partner were deemed to have a statistically significant impact upon fund performance.

Motahar, Hossein, Ritika Batra, and Annette Kaempf-Dern. "Review of Stakeholders Conflicts in German Housing Industry." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Purpose: German housing industry has delivery shortages which leads to a lack of supply of dwellings. Some of these shortages are owing to the planning or construction delay that could be caused by the conflicts, such as delivery delay or cost excess, between the different involved stakeholders. These stakeholders have direct and indirect influence on quality, time and cost of every project and could affect construction process from initial phases to operation and procurement. This paper therefore, investigates the conflicts between involved stakeholders in German housing industry and see how they can affect time, cost and quality of the project.

Methodology/ Approach: This study conducts a literature review on the stakeholders’ conflicts in German housing industry. The collected data is classified in different clusters and an integrated stakeholders’ conflicts model is presented.

Findings: This paper presents the interests of involved stakeholders in German housing industry and as a result stakeholders’ interests are transparent. This enables the management team to identify where the conflicts occur can and manage the conflicts before they lead to delivery delay or cost excess.

Limitations: The huge number of stakeholders makes it complicated to investigate the interests of all parties. Therefore this study focuses on ‘Manage closely’ stakeholders. 

Practical Implications: This research enables the housing industry to have a precise overview of its stakeholders and develops a foundation for stakeholders’ conflicts management.

Originality/ Value: Compared to the common approaches this study contributes to the ‘manage closely’ stakeholders and discovers the most important group of the stakeholders in German housing industry and their interests as well and presents an integrated stakeholders’ conflicts model. It investigates the different conflicts between stakeholders’ interests and clarifies how these conflicts can lead to delivery delay or cost excess.  

Shi, Song, and Michael Naylor. "Risk preferences in response to earthquake risk: Property value and insurance." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

It is well established that individuals tend not to be very good at utilizing all available information when making decisions involving rare risks. It is also widely accepted that individuals tend to underinsure against low-probability, high-loss events relative to high-probability, low-loss events. The dynamics aspects of changes in rare event risk preference for property value and insurance has, however, not been studied. We use the 2010/11 Canterbury earthquakes to confirm that some households underestimate earthquake risk prior to earthquake experience, and substantially re-evaluate those risk perceptions after a quake. We show that these changes are complex, and time dynamic. We further use a novel risk proxy based on smoking rates to show that uniform disaster insurance premiums reduce information clarity and encourage households to make sub-optimal property location choices, which contradict their risk preferences, thus causing ex-ante subjective risk perception to depart from underlying objective risk.

Kurylchyk, Kateryna. "Risks in International Real Estate Investment: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

International real estate diversification provides significant benefits which are inevitably associated with considerable risks and costs. This requires a thorough analysis of options in order to take account of substantial uncertainty and foreignness implied by international investment per se, as well as the real estate market risks inherent in foreign countries. These factors are intensified by economic distresses and make real estate investors use more discretion in their operations abroad. 

A similar situation has been observed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) after the events of 2008. In the face of downturn, market players have become cautious about investing in this region and shifted their investments away from many once booming markets. In other words, the crisis resulted in an increased perception of risk and a change towards more selective investment strategies in CEE, with international investors unprepared to take high country risks even though property risks may be low. Hence, relatively more importance is attached to country risks vs. property specifics and gains when making investment decisions.  

Among numerous academic papers on real estate investment risks and decision-making factors in the international context, there are only few undertaken for the CEE countries. This study has been motivated by the perceived shortage of research on real estate markets and investment decision-making factors in CEE, as well as the need for understanding these aspects in order to ensure sound investments in the region. It aims to identify major risks of investing in real estate, with a particular focus on selected CEE countries. 

The study reviews in the first instance the existing publications on international real estate investment and summarizes common risks and factors affecting relevant decision-making. The complexity of country risk as a composite risk and its components are addressed by creating a country risk framework. Further, real estate investment trends and issues in the CEE markets are discussed, with specific investment risks for the CEE region identified. Finally, the importance of the factors influencing investment decision-making, as perceived by international investors in the region, is studied through a questionnaire survey.

Altogether this exploratory research contributes to the understanding of barriers and risks of international real estate investment while assisting investors in improving their perception of opportunities and implications associated with property investments in the CEE region.

Vidal, Pierre. "Search and Vacancies in the French real estate market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Using internet users activity record on a real estate web platform I measure, quarterly, housing market tightness for more than 250 cities of the Paris area, over a four years period. An upward sloping Beveridge curve linking vacancy and demand rate is observed both across locations and over time. Applying a random matching model, this measure of the market tightness is compared with volumes and prices dynamics. In line with the theory, I find a positive, statistically significant, impact of the buyer-seller ratio on both rotation rate and price variation.

Petreski, Aleksandar. "Search in apartment swap market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

In this paper I construct theoretic search model of the apartment swap in the rental market. With the model, using random matching mechanism, I am trying to mimic Swedish swap market, characterized by the strong rent controls and dominant ownership of the apartments by the municipalities. Proposed theoretic framework is intended to capture supply and demand dynamics of the rental market, segmented to households with rented small or big municipal apartments, that search and try to swap between each other. The paper consider comparative statics of the apartment swap model and try to extract some stylized facts. For that purpose, I have simulated value of the swap itself as the function of the structure of the population, to test the changes in the modeled value of the swap, while varying for the parameters of interest rate, probabilities of match and probability of cancel of the swap agreement. Simulation results have confirmed intuitive expectation from the theoretical postulation.

Kolb, Julia, Ritika Batra, and Annette Kaempf-Dern. "Service Relationships in the Real Estate Industry: Conflicts and potential solutions in the case of Property Management." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Purpose: Service relationships have become an integral part of today’s businesses, with all their advantages and disadvantages. The real estate industry, in particular, the property management, also faces conflicts resulting from divergent expectations and interests of customers and providers. While conflict management is widely studied in general, its application in property management is not very common. Analysis of existing approaches in theory and practice for dealing with the conflicts may provide an approach/ methods for resolution of conflicts and improvement of relationships within property management. This paper, therefore, presents the conflict situations in real estate management services and an investigation of approaches for solving these conflicts. 

Design/methodology/approach: Extensive literature review of the current state of art in the field of conflict management by systematic research forms the base of this investigation. 

Findings: Information asymmetry and divergent interests can be a trigger for opportunistic behavior. Theoretical approaches like “screening”, “self-selection”, “signalling” as well as controlling and incentive systems try to reduce the risk of opportunistic behavior. A practical reference to conflict of interest as a result of information asymmetry and its resolution is visible in the examples of interim management and the relationship of a commercial agent and the sales manager. A summary of the compiled approaches and first assessment of practical applications such as incentives help to improve the property management relationships sustainably.

Research limitations: The scope of this study is limited to examine theoretical approaches which deal with conflicts of interest as a result of information asymmetry and opportunistic behavior. This paper does not engage with the development of a final solution model. 

Practical implications: A review and investigation into the transferability of the theoretical approaches to the property management conflicts to put it into practice is needed before findings can be generalized. This shall lead to the development of a solution model without conflicts of interest in service relationships. 

Originality/value: The role of service relationships and the resulting conflicts from divergent expectations and interests comes to the fore. This paper thereby studies conflict management focused within property management, with a view to get a better foundation for sustainable and successful service relationships.

Martens, Bob, and Anand Bhatt. "Setting Up a Digital Library for LARES." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Under the umbrella of IRES the continental real estate associations have been taking care of “local exchange” predominantly by way of annual conferences. However, the issue of long-term access regarding previous publication output and opportunities for cross-referencing is of interest to the worldwide real estate community. In other words, maintaining an archive and giving access to already published entities is enhancing attention. 

The European Real Estate Society has since a number of years taken care of a Digital Library, which delivers unrestricted open access to the output of previous annual conferences, industry and education seminars. As the ERES-history goes back till 1993, some materials had to be retrospectively back-digitized, when setting up this library ( The complete collection allows to trace back the "collective memory" of the association and to see, how the attention towards different topical areas has shifted and progressed in the course of time. 

The starting point for this LARES Digital Library is to disseminate published output in a similar way and to make it available in the same framework as the ERES Digital Library. In this regard, first of all previous proceedings were collected, followed by metadata extraction & cleaning of the datasets. In order to enhance the visibility of the individual entries, also DOI's were attached and the published data cross-referenced in RePEc. Overall nearly 700 entries have been recorded for the period 2004-2018 and these can be accessed via http://

In the framework of this presentation, multilingual issues will be addressed along with trends in topical areas of the archived period of time. Furthermore, the concept of extension with other continental digital libraries will be highlighted.

Tanrivermis, Harun, and Yesim Aliefendioglu. "Socio-economic Impact Assessment of Land Consolidation Projects in Turkey: A Case Study of Beyazaltın Village Land Consolidation Project in Eskişehir Province, Turkey." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Emphasis is placed on developing and implementing projects for the efficient use of land resources in developing countries due to high population growth and high growth targets. Especially in developing countries like Turkey, the agricultural sector still has an important place in the economy of the country due to criteria such as agricultural production, employment and foreign trade. The average enterprise land of agricultural operations, which are 3.1 million units in total, is around 6 hectares, and 64% of households are known to have holding lands assets that are smaller than 5 hectares. It has been determined that a total of 32.5 million parcels are in the form of agricultural land and that the agricultural land processed per household is composed of 11 parcels, 2 million hectares of land is out of production due to excessive fragmentation and agricultural land have more than 40 million shareholders. Due to the improper shape and forms of parcels increase machine power and labor utilization, as well as the cost of input, and consequently, the objective of efficient and productive use of land resources cannot be achieved. 

Land consolidation practices consist of addressing collectively he implementation are of the consolidation project, along with the reorganization of parcels based on road and irrigation networks, infrastructure services such as motorways, railways, airports, conservation areas, ecological corridors, transportation to pastures, arrangement of village settlements, irrigation water, drinking water and sewerage. The consolidation projects have positive economic contributions based on a comparison of the present value of the economic gains each year and one time economic gains to be achieved by such projects to the total costs of projects. However, significant developments have been achieved in multi-purpose land consolidation studies in Turkey as well as in developed countries. With multi-purpose land consolidation, it is possible to solve many ownership (shareholding), cadastre, environmental, and social quality at the local level. 

In this study, firstly the development and macro-effects of land consolidation activities were evaluated and economic, environmental and social effects of projects were evaluated within the framework of the Eskişehir Province, Beyazaltın Village Land Consolidation Project in the second phase and an economic benefit to cost analysis of the projects was made. The current use situation of the land and water resources and the post-project changes in the project area have been examined and the importance of water saving in irrigation areas due to the fact that highest water losses occur during irrigation, the importance of water saving in irrigation areas and the impacts of land consolidation on effective use of irrigation water and water saving and other benefits have been evaluated. The topics of participation of owners and other stakeholders in the planning stages of the projects; development of local measures for rural development; producing maps and data for the region; establishment of a parcel information system; evaluation of state land; cadastral renewal; solution of property problems; creation of large parcels; environmental solutions (such as creating ecological corridors and preserving historic buildings); rehabilitation of irrigation projects; preparation of land use plans; design and construction of in-field services; development and implementation of village settlement plans were examined based on the results of the field study. In principle, there is a requirement to determine the problems with a participatory approach with social survey reports before the projects of consolidation and inquire all related institutions for their opinions. As results, it has been found that current situation analysis work has not been done well in the process of deciding on the implementation of many projects in the last decade and the economic and social impacts expected from the projects have been neglected. In the project area analyzed in these conditions, the land assets and number of parcels of the households, land income and economic, social and environmental impact of the project were analyzed before and after the application and according to the result of benefit-cost analysis, economic contribution of the project was found to be high. In the impact assessment study, both the official institution records and the results of the survey study implemented in the project area were used, and the positive and negative economic, social and environmental impacts of project implementation were listed and suggestions for improvement of the consolidation policies based on problem analysis were put forward. 

Starzer, Moritz, Wolfgang Feilmayr, and Wolfgang Brunauer. "Spatial Effects in Land Price Models in Austria." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The aim of this paper is to study the processes and factors that influence the average land price of municipalities in Austria using statistical models. For this purpose, we use a dataset of 1667 Austrian municipalities. The location is clearly one of the most important factors influencing land prices. Therefore, land price data are spatial data. When modelling spatial data, spatial effects must be taken into account. In the case of land price data this is primarily the effect of spatial dependence. Spatial dependence therefore must be incorporated in the model specification. Model specifications coming from the field of spatial econometrics, especially spatial autoregressive models, and methods from the field of geostatistics, especially kriging methods, are able to account for spatial dependence.

By comparing these spatial model specifications with classical non-spatial model specifications, one can clearly show that the model-fit can significantly be increased by spatial model specifications. This shows that the process that generates the land price is a spatial process.

Decamps, Aurélien, Frederic Gaschet, Guillaume Pouyanne, and Stephane Virol. "Spatial pattern of housing prices in polycentric cities." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This article analyses the formation of urban and suburban employment centralities and their impact on local housing values. Urban sprawl combined with the formation of suburban employment poles have produced complex spatial patterns, characterized by polycentric cities. This paper assumes that these changes in urban forms have influenced residential dynamics and have thus influenced housing prices. Suburban centralities are expected to improve local attractiveness and thus to be capitalized in housing prices.

We use hedonic regressions to estimate the impact of the polycentric structure of the city on housing values, among other traditional factors. These estimations are completed by semi-parametric regressions in order to analyse sharply the form of the price gradients in a polycentric city. Data on residential transactions come from the PERVAL database recorded by French notary offices. The precise geolocation of transactions is used, in addition to a rich set of intrinsic characteristics of the buildings, to estimation sharply the spatial pattern of real estate prices. It is completed by a rich set of locational attributes coming from several data sources recorded at a fine spatial scale and covering accessibility, socio-economic attributes, local amenities and equipments, distance to the main subcenters. 

The study is conducted within the Lyon and Bordeaux metropolitan areas in France, allowing a comparison of two different urban patterns and urban sizes. The various scales of urban polycentrism are explored by taking into account two types of subcenters (emerging centralities in the suburban area and integration of satellite towns) and by estimating semi-parametric hedonic models. The first contribution of the paper is to estimate the impact of the polycentric form of the city on housing prices. The spatial pattern of housing prices is mainly explained by the increasing influence of urban amenities, at the expect of employment accessibility. The second contribution of this paper is to provide a precise estimation of the form of the hedonic gradients for residential and commercial real estate values through the use of semi-parametric regressions. 

Suzuki, Masatomo, and Chihiro Shimizu. "Sticky Housing Rents: Term Structure on Duration of Residence and Rent Index Implication." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. In the rental housing market, housing rents for new tenants are determined from the fact that adjusting rents is quite difficult while tenants occupy the units even at the time of contract renewal. Using the unique unit-level monthly panel of rental apartments in Tokyo through 1996–2017, we find the downward-sloping term structure reflecting rapid structure depreciation: the longer expected tenancy duration of the unit leads to the lower premium of the new rents compared to the market level. The degree of downward slopes reflects the expectation of future rent flows: the degree is remarkable during 2012–2014, especially in the rental units for singles. We also find that, when we do not control for the duration of tenants’ residence, the index for newly contracted rents may exhibit downward bias corresponding to the degree of the downward term structure and contain time lags when the market bottoms out. 
Brzezicka, Justyna, and Radoslaw Wisniewski. "Structure of translocal processes on the real estate market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

A review of the literature clearly indicates that the real estate market has a local character because real property is permanently attached to the land in a given location. This approach predominates in the research relating to real estate as an immobile object of market transactions. However, real estate markets can and should also be analyzed from the perspective of market participants (market actors), namely, in a subjective approach. The activity of market participants is expressed by their mobility in a spatial and geographic sense (horizontal dimension) as well as their pursuit of goals, needs and opportunities for development (vertical dimension). This observation leads to the conclusion that the popular definition of locality accounts only for objective locality and is not sufficiently exhaustive. The concept of translocality on the real estate market has been proposed to combine subjective locality with the activity and creativity of market participants. 

This report will analyze translocality on the real estate market in a process approach. The aim of the study is to identify the key components of translocal processes and the variables that describe these processes in relation to the real estate market. The research hypothesis states that market participants are the creators and carriers of translocal processes and drivers of market change. The processes and variables associated with the real estate market will be analyzed individually and in data aggregates. The research methodology for analyzing translocality on the real estate market is being presently developed.

This research and conference expenses are funded by a grant from the Polish National Science Center, Miniatura 2 COMPETITION, No. DEC-2018/02/X/HS4/02241.

Lecomte, Patrick. "Sui generis: Principles for a phenomenology of space in smart real estate." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. As smart technologies are becoming increasingly prevalent in the built environment (e.g., smart cities, smart buildings), this paper explores the concept of space user in smart urban environments. Scaffolding on Lecomte (Eres 2018), the paper investigates the impact of digital technologies on the way humans engage with their physical surroundings. The paper concludes by laying out the fundamental principles for a phenomenology of space in smart real estate, as a necessary step towards the modelling of commercial real estate in smart cities.
Gkitnou, Regina, and Ana Pedro( Chadburn). "Sustainability in offices is not just about regulations but it is becoming the norm due to impact of occupants’ wellbeing." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The increase of studies and information on health and wellbeing in the last couple of years has triggered an increasing awareness of the correlation between the office space environment, the health and wellbeing of its occupants and the impact on businesses performance and productivity. Health and wellbeing, as part of the people component of sustainability, is of great interest not only from epistemological view point, but also for practitioners as they start recognising the impact it can have on their people and as a result on their businesses. Along with the awareness, it has become difficult for the industry to filter, process and act accordingly. The question if investors main driver to invest in sustainable office spaces is regulations or the market remains unanswered. When it comes to investors’ decisions in terms of sustainable office buildings there seems to be a conflict of interests. While the intention to create and provide sustainable office buildings exists, it often fails due to financial reasons – other aspects like environmental and social constrains are then often side-lined. However, there are indications that there is a change in the paradigm of thinking, as investors begin to acknowledge the importance of sustainability and its benefits, but the question remains, whether investors will indeed invest in sustainable buildings for other reasons other than being bound by regulations. The author of the research will not delve into the impact buildings can have on the health of people as the medical perspective will not be the focus of the research. The aim of the research is to gain understanding of the relationship between sustainable office buildings, occupiers’ wellbeing and the impact on investors' decisions to adopt, develop or purchase sustainable premises. 

In order to understand how investors add value to their properties and if wellbeing matters, the researchers participated in numerous discussions that took place at RICS Commercial Property Conferences. To gauge the sentiment of the industry, the researchers are in the process of carrying out in-depth interviews with advisors who have a direct exposure to the investors' decisions. The researchers are visiting and analysing office spaces of corporations in the EU that have implemented the recommendations of current research and obtained WELL Building Standard certification case studies aiming to showcase that they provide the best office space for their employees. Additionally, monitoring the market and gauging the spread of the WELL Building Standard globally, nationally, locally will result in identifying how many buildings are actually applying a health and wellbeing-oriented strategy and whether there was an upward tendency among investors to invest in such buildings in EMEA in the past three years or it remains rather steady with a few buildings being rather the exception. 

The paper will focus on filling the gap in the literature which is the triangulation of the topics: health and wellbeing of occupants; the impact of sustainable office buildings on their wellbeing and the main drivers for investors to invest in sustainability. 

Mariani, Massimo, Alessandra Caragnano, and Marianna Zito. "Sustainable Real Estate." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The relationship between corporate governance and firm performance is still an open issue in the current academic debate. Some studies have investigated if and to what extent board diversity may influence corporate performance and according to the predominant opinion in the existing literature, diversity in boards is considered a valid way to improve firm performance through corporate governance mechanisms. In the last years board gender diversity has become a heavily debated corporate governance topic not only in the institutional environment, but also in the academic one. In this scenario, the presence of women on the board has been analyzed in order to underline potential advantages to be interpreted from an economic point of view as well as from an ethical and social one. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the aforementioned relationships, namely between board diversity, with particular reference to gender diversity, percentage of independent directors, age of board of directors, and financial performance focusing on European Green REITs specific industry. By taking a broader view, considering simultaneously corporate governance, environmental engagement and financial performance, we aim at contributing to the academic debate that have argued the financial performance improvement through the involvement in ESG practices.
Glumac, Brano, and Nizamul Islam. "Taste Heterogeneity and Adaptive Reuse of Buildings: A Latent Class Model." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Vacant buildings represent insufficiently exploited potential for urban development. By collecting and analysing the preferences of its future users, vacant buildings can be adapted and reused in the best manner and thus could generate a significant contribution towards a more sustainable development within the construction industry. Discrete choice experiment is used to identify the most important attributes and to collect the preferences of the potential future occupants choosing between two types of residential buildings, redeveloped factory and office. This study reports on the preferences of different groups of respondents such as students, young professionals, couples with children, etc. Therefore, exploring the taste heterogeneity (observed and unobserved) takes a central place in this study. Furthermore, these results can be used within a decision tool to better assess upon choice of vacant building to fit best to future desired end user. Adaptive building reuse provides numerous environmental, socio-economic, and urban policy benefits and we do provide fruitfully discussion based on the reported findings.

Black, Angela, Steven Devaney, Patric Hendershott, and Bryan MacGregor. "Temporal and Spatial Variations in the Dynamics of US Metropolitan Office Markets." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. A considerable body of research exists on how office rents, vacancy rates and new supply adjust in response to shocks to occupier demand. Research has settled upon an Error Correction Model (ECM) approach for modelling the dynamics. More recent studies have used panel data (such as Hendershott, Jennen and MacGregor, 2013; Adams and Füss, 2012), but there has been little investigation of either the temporal or the cross sectional variation in the adjustment parameters and why these might vary. Furthermore, the econometric complications from using lagged dependent variables in such models have still to be addressed. We use panel data and dynamic panel estimation techniques for 58 US MSA office markets in this paper and we analyse differences in the parameters found for different locations and time periods, including demand and supply coefficients, implied natural vacancy rates and speeds of adjustment to shocks in fundamental variables. Cross-sectional variations are analysed using variables that depict the characteristics of different locations in terms of their economic activity, urban form and real estate markets.
Saxinger, Andreas, and Thomas Wagner. "Temporary living projects under the German town planning Law." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Temporary living plays an increasing role in today's society. Various temporary living concepts for many different groups of users can be observed on the market, but so far no exact definition exists in German law thus no special legal regulations on temporary living can be found in the planning and building law. Here the question arises which type of use is most suitable for temporary living. 

Depending on each individual case, temporary living projects including serviced apartments can either be defined as the following property types: residential, hotel or holiday flats. Crucial for the distinction between these three types is the operating concept in place, not the designation chosen by the respective operator. 

The use type residential is defined as a long-term habitat. Self-furnishing and the free choice of habitation are defining characteristics of residential properties.

The use type hotel includes facilities which offer temporary accommodation to constantly changing guests in return for payment. Guests are not able to organise their habitation independently. They are required to use external services, such as catering, restaurants and cleaning.

Holiday flats are rooms or properties which are temporarily made available to a constantly changing circle of guests for a fee. This kind of accommodation is suitable and intended to establish an own habitat for a short limited period of time.

A major criterion for successful temporary living projects is the right choice of the location. The eleven zoning categories in the German Federal building code need to be checked carefully whether they are suitable as locations for temporary living projects. The German zoning categories special residential areas, mixed-use areas and urban areas are particularly suitable for temporary living, because there are no legal restrictions regarding the use types as defined above. In other German zoning categories like residential or commercial only residential or respectively hotel uses are allowed. 

Further considerations arise when the operator intends to change the temporary living concept in place, for example by changing his use concept from residential to hotel. In this case, the operator needs to verify, if in the German zoning category hotels are allowed. 

Pfeifer, Norbert. "Text-Based Rental Rate Predictions of Airbnb Listings." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The validation of house price value remains a critical task for scientific research as well as for practitioners. The following paper investigates this challenge by integrating textual-based information contained in real estate descriptions. More specifically, we show different approaches surrounding how to integrate verbal descriptions from real estate advertisements in an automated valuation model. By using Airbnb listing data, we address the proposed methods against a traditional hedonic-based approach, where we show that a neural network-based prediction model—featuring only information from verbal descriptions—are able to outperform a traditional hedonic-based model estimated with physical attributes, such as bathrooms or/and bedrooms. We also draw attention to techniques that allow for interrelations between physical, locational, and qualitative, text-based attributes. The results strongly suggest the integration of textual information, specifically modelled in a 2-stage model architecture in which the first model (recurrent long short-term memory network) outputs a probability distribution over price classifications, which is then used along with quantitative measurements in a stacked feed-forward neural network.
McAllister, Patrick, and Ilir Nase. "The Accuracy of Consensus Real Estate Forecasts Revisited." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Building on previous research evaluating the IPF Consensus Forecasts, this study updates and expands upon the existing body of work. The paper evaluates forecasting accuracy at the sector level and assesses the extent to which the consensus forecasts were able to predict the relative performance of each sector.  It also evaluates the performance of the implied yield forecasts and concludes that it is failure in yield forecasting that is the main source of failure in forecasts of capital growth and total returns. The ability of the consensus forecasts to identify the best and worst performing sectors was relatively good with a high level of agreement between the actual and forecasted sector rankings. 
Yang, Chunghsien. "The Approach of Real Property CAMA with Extreme Price." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The CAMA model usually depend on sample size and consistency. When a real property is extreme price, it seem be different attribute price and submarket. It’s also few sample size and hard to build a CAMA model. Some studies use the Quantile Regression(QR) or Artificial Neural Network(ANN) model, but a real property is hard to fit its quantile price in QR model, and it’s also hard to explain predict price in ANN model. This paper try to build a hybrid model and process. Using both the QR model and OLS model to predict the real property with extreme price. And the extreme price seem be another submarket, this paper is also to test how to combine or split submarket in the hybrid model in different scale market.
Bangura, Mustapha, and Chyi Lin Lee. "The Determinants of Housing Affordability in Greater Sydney: Evidence from a Submarket Analysis." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Little studies have been done on the determinants of housing affordability at a disaggregated level despite the existence of socio-economic and demographic disparities across metropolitan cities such as Greater Sydney. This study therefore gauges the determinants of housing affordability in different regions of Greater Sydney using data at Local Government Area (LGA) over 1991-2016 with a System Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). The study has identified the differential geography of housing affordability determinants among regions (i.e. low and high income regions). Although house price and average income are key drivers of housing affordability across all regions, the differences in the magnitudes of these determinants between regions have also been documented. Specifically, low income regions (i.e. western, inner-west and southern regions) are more sensitive to income and house price change than high income regions (i.e. eastern and northern regions). In addition, low income regions are more sensitive to other determinants compared with high income regions. The empirical results show that housing supply is a significant driver of affordability in the relatively low income regions such as western, inner-west and southern regions of the city but insignificant in the high income eastern and northern regions. Similarly, resident population and median rent are also statistically significant drivers of affordability in the relatively low income regions but insignificant in high income regions. The implications of the study have also been discussed.
Fuerst, Franz, and Georgia Warren-Myers. "The economics of green lifestyles: a micro-economic study of Australian household panel and housing market data." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This study examines the economic effects of voluntary commitments to a more sustainable individual lifestyle. In particular, it investigates the crucial nexus between environmental factors and health and well-being outcomes. It promises to generate important insights into this multi-faceted relationship by focussing on a hitherto understudied topic, i.e. whether the housing market and particularly the spatial variation in house prices may play a decisive mediating role for the quality of the surrounding built and natural environment. This project seeks to enhance our understanding of the relationship between individual environmental attitudes and economic outcomes but also to inform policies in the public health, urban planning and local economic development arenas.

Kwon, Chad. "The Effect of Ecclesiastical Restructuring on Housing Prices: Evidence from the U.S." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This study examines the impact of repurposed parishes of the Catholic Church on the prices of  surrounding houses. We echo Glaeser (2000) and Swedberg (1990)’s view that non-market interac-  tions could influence people’s economic decision. Parishes play vital roles in disseminating informa-  tion, healing divided communities, and supporting the local economy (Grim, 2017). Nonetheless,  about 1% of parishes are shuttered every year (Anderson et al., 2008). Numerous reports on dying  congregations in the media (e.g., Merritt (2018) addresses the most recent account) and limited  coverage of studies using micro-level religious buildings in the finance literature motivate us to fill  the gap. Our objective is to quantify the effect of transformed religious identity of a community on  local housing markets.

Valentin, Maxence. "The effects of regulating the housing short-term rental market: Evidence from New Orleans." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Municipalities across the world have regulated the short-term rental (STR) market in the recent years with however little comprehensive research on the effects of these regulations. This study exploits the enactment of regulations targeting Airbnb and other STR suppliers in New Orleans to identify its effects on market participants' behavior and housing value. I show that although new regulations reduced participation in the STR market as intended, STR usage increased in the neighborhoods adjacent to the properties the most affected by the amendments. I subsequently show that the new regulations depressed property values within the neighborhoods facing the tightest regulations implying that homeowners factor the option to participate in the STR market into their housing purchasing decision.

Baek, Song-Hee, and Myounggu Kang. "The Effects of Sentiment on Real Estate Price Using Time Series Analysis." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

In recent years, real estate prices in Seoul have risen sharply and this phenomenon has not been adequately explained by existing theories. This study will examine the effect of people's sentiment on real estate prices. The variables of real estate price are based on the National Apartment Sale Price Index and the Seoul Apartment Sale Price Index of Korea Appraisal Board. And the variable of sentimental value is based on the real estate market sentiment index of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs. Other economic and social variables include interest rates and stock price indexes, and their effects on long and short term to apartment price index. The cointegration test is used to examine long-term effects and the vector error correction model is used to see the short-term effects. Empirical results show that consumer sentiment affects the whole country and Seoul in the long run. In addition, it affects Seoul only in the short term. Moreover, sentimental variables are affected by Seoul apartment price index in the short term. In other words, the sentiment affects property prices in short and long term, and the relationship between sentimental variables and Seoul apartment price index is self - reinforcing. This implies a possibility of a bubble in the increasing price of the Seoul real estate market.

Bartak, Erika, Georgia Warren-Myers, and Christopher Heywood. "The Energy Efficiency Conversation in the Australian Volume Home Building sector: Current practices and opportunities for change." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Housing with high operational energy efficiency has the potential to positively contribute towards the global environmental challenge of climate change.  These types of homes contribute to climate change mitigation through reduced operational energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions.  In addition, such homes can improve household resilience in a changing climate, by providing social and financial benefits such as improved comfort, health and wellbeing, and reduced cost of living.  Although these potential benefits are well known, the adoption of higher standards of energy efficiency in new Australian housing is not widespread.  This is in part a result of limited mandatory requirements (compared to the benchmarks of other developed economies), and limitations to demand creation by consumers – two contributing features of an on-going ‘blame game’ between consumer, government and industry stakeholders.  

This study focuses on the dominant providers of new housing in Australia, the volume home builders. These organisations occupy an influential position in the system of new housing supply, informing and directing the choices of inexperienced homebuyers, and providing work opportunities to a large construction supply chain.  But recent studies reveal that sustainability measures such as energy efficiency are not well promoted or prioritised by the sector. 

This paper presents preliminary findings from the study, exploring the current energy efficiency ‘conversation’ within the Australian volume home building sector.  A content analysis of selected organisational websites is used to establish an evidence base of the current conversation between volume home builders and their potential homebuyers.  These results then inform the design of semi-structured interviews with a range of volume home building organisations and staff.  Interviews explore relevant organisational practices, and identify opportunities for a more productive energy efficiency conversation, as a means of mainstreaming higher energy efficiency performance in new housing.

Gerlach, Philipp, and Maurer Raimond. "The growing importance of secondary market activities for open-end real estate fund shares in Germany." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Shares of open-end real funds are typically traded directly between the investor and the fund management company. However, we provide empirical evidence for the growth of secondary market activities, i.e., the trading of shares on stock exchanges. We find high trading in situations when the fund management company suspends the redemption of shares but lower trading when the issue of shares is suspended. Shares trade with a discount when the fund management company suspends the redemption, whereas shares trade with a premium when the fund management company suspends the issue. We also find evidence that secondary market trading activity is increasing since German regulation introduced a minimum holding period and a mandatory notice period for open-end real estate funds.

Sojkova, Olga, Jarmila Ircingová, Petr Janecek, David Martincik, Jan Pašek, Miroslav Plevny, and Jan Tluchor. "The Impact of Actual Retail Trends on the Technical and Logistic Parameters of Commercial Real Estate." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Current trends in consumer behavior, as well as retail development, can significantly affect the management of commercial real estate. One of the main trends currently affecting the commercial real estate market is the gradual increase of e-commerce, both in the Czech Republic and abroad. The preferences of final consumers have a direct link to retail stores which create the majority of tenants of commercial real estate. However, there are trends in retail stores that are related to consumer behavior. 

The construction and operation of commercial properties can have a significant impact on logistics solutions, often based on actual retail trends and consumer preferences of different distribution channels. These requirements may be different for a brick and mortar store and an e-commerce store. Different types of stores (brick and mortar store, online shop, their combination) require a different arrangement of layouts and demands for technical solution of the buildings. This contribution analysis the dependence of basic technical parameters of a commercial property on the type of retail arrangement (a brick and mortar store versus an e-commerce store). Among other things, the technical effects on parking areas and driveways are mentioned. 

This contribution is based on the outputs from the contract research project focused on e-commerce impact on the development and economy of commercial real estate, which was conducted for the InterCora Company.

Emblem, Anne Wenche, and Theis Theisen. "The impact of an urban toll-ring on housing prices." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Over the last decades, there has been considerable interest in the use of tolls on cars driving into towns. Not only has this been a hot political topic; this issue has also attracted substantial attention from economists. The focus in most of the economics literature has been on how tolls impact traffic volumes, and on how tolls may be used to reduce negative externalities of car use. Less attention has been devoted to how property values and house prices inside and outside toll rings may be affected. From the urban economics literature, it is however well known, that local commuters’ cost of accessing centrally located amenities and work-places will be discounted into house prices. The magnitude of this effect will be contingent on the extent to which tolls also reduce congestion, external effects related to noise, etc. Moreover, since the imposition of a toll ring will alter the long-run spatial equilibrium of a town and the surrounding area, it will set into motion processes of sorting and re-location of households, and possibly also a re-location of some work-places. Consequently, the effects of tolls on house prices may be quite different in the short-run and long-run.

In this paper we aim to determine the long-run impact of a toll ring on house prices. In order to assess how much a household initially residing outside the toll ring may gain from relocating to a dwelling within the toll ring we construct a simple household model for choice of location. In the empirical part of the paper we exploit a sample of about 15000 dwellings sold during an eight-year period in the Norwegian town of Kristiansand. We estimate various hedonic house price functions that account for not only whether the house lies within the toll ring or not, but also the precise location of houses and the distance from houses to important amenities. Accounting for other factors beside that of toll, that may impact the sales price of a house, is important in order to identify the impact of the toll ring on house prices. Our findings indicate that introducing a toll ring increases the price of houses located inside this ring with 3 percent. We expect that our findings will be useful in the discussion on establishing toll rings around towns, and on road pricing in general. These issues are particularly relevant for the Norwegian context, where tolls recently have become increasingly more important, not only as means to reduce congestion and other negative externalities, but also as a part of financing the construction of new roads.

Cherbonnier, Frederic, and Christophe Leveque. "The impact of competition on experts' information disclosure: the case of real estate brokers." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. We analyze how competition can counter the tendency of experts to pass biased information to their customers, by using data from an online company that connects real estate brokers with clients who want to sell their housings. Different counterfactuals allow us to show that more competition or lower opportunity to collude induce brokers to raise their initial price estimation by about 5 percent. A similar but lesser impact is observed on listing price and selling price, but no significant effect is observed on the time to sell, which suggests that the manipulation of information observed in the absence of competition is detrimental to the client. Increasing competition among agents also changes the way they respond to, and sometimes align with,  price preferences expressed by their customers.
Cutsforth, Kevin, and Michael White. "The Impact of Government Policy on Housing Tenure Choice." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The global financial crisis caused house prices to fall across the UK and in many other countries. Even before the crisis, as evidenced by the increased age of first owner-occupation, younger age groups found it harder to enter homeownership due increases in the house price to income ratio. This was compounded by the financial crisis that resulted in tighter lending conditions and decreases in the maximum available loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Whereas LTVs before the crisis could reach 100%, after the crisis the maximum available had fallen to 75%. This made access to homeownership even harder particularly for younger age cohorts who struggled to save for large downpayments.

The UK government sought to simulate the housing market, make homeownership achievable, and overcome downpayment constraints via the introduction of the Help-to-Buy scheme in 2013. The scheme enabled borrowers to effectively increase their LTV to 95% reducing the downpayment hurdle. Further, it stimulated new housing development and the proportion of first-time buyers increased.

Using panel data from the English Housing Survey from 2008 to 2016, our research seeks to identify the impact of this policy intervention, amongst a range of other factors, on tenure choice and transitions. In addition, it seeks to identify how impacts vary across age groups and regions and therefore provide evidence as to who and where have been impacted most by policy change.

Theisen, Theis, and Jonas Dahl. "The impact of residence requirements on housing prices." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. In typical vacation regions, people from other parts of the country, or from other countries, may often want to buy properties for the use as vacation homes. This may easily drive up property prices. Moreover, if houses built for permanent residence are converted into vacation homes, these houses will be in use only a few weeks of the year. Many of those who have their permanent residence in areas where houses are being bought for vacation use may want to keep house prices low, and houses used for permanent residence. Since 1974 Norwegian municipalities have had the option to introduce residence requirements. Such requirements implying that a house which initially is approved for the use as a permanent dwelling cannot legally be used only as a vacation home. Hence, the person buying such a house must sign a contract that the house will be used for permanent residence. Residence requirements have been a heavily discussed topic all the time since they were introduced, but little research on how such requirements work have been carried out. In the present paper we focus on how residence requirements impact house prices. We first discuss this issue within a theoretical model, and subsequently carry out an empirical investigation. The empirical analysis is based on data on house transactions over a 7-year period from four municipalities on the South-Eastern coast of Norway. The results show that house prices along the coast increased significantly when residence requirements are abolished, but that there was no impact on house prices far from the coast.
Papageorgiou, Leo. "The Impact of the Heathrow Northwest Runway Announcement on Residential Property Prices in Greater London." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

As prior research has shown, airport expansions in densely populated urban areas affect homeowners in surrounding areas. The effect on prices is expected to be particularly pronounced in the London urban area due to the high absolute valuations. This study will examine the  announcement effects of (a) the release of the planning report for Heathrow’s Northwest Runway on 01.07.15, (b) the acceptance of the plan by the Secretary for Transport on 14.12.2015, and (c) the official government approval for the initiation of Heathrow’s airport expansion on 25.10.2016. 

The research focus of this paper lies on the extent to which prices of single family, terraced and semi-detached homes in those areas not yet affected by Heathrow’s runway noise changed as a consequence of the announcements. In this context, it is of particular interest whether the observed changes in property prices match the noise contour proposed by the official planners’ report.  

The novelty of this study lies in the fact that we focus  on the home price effects of the announcement of an airport expansion. For airports as opposed to other infrastructure projects, announcement effects   have so far not been analyzed in the literature. This is understandable as the area affected by airport expansions tends to be not only far larger than other infrastructure projects, such as sports stadiums, but they are also more uncertain. In fact, the expected future effects can vary significantly with advancing technology and changing mobility patterns.

Literature. The related literature reaches back to 1978, when Mieszkowski & Saper estimated the effects of airport noise on residential property values at Toronto’s Malton Airport. In 1990, Pennington et al.  measured the same effect at Manchester’s airport. In a similar study in 1998, Tomkins, et. al. found that at Manchester’s airport the benefits of expansion extended beyond the local economy, while the costs were concentrated locally. In 2000, Espey & Lopez found a significant negative price discount for surrounding residential buildings near Reno‐Sparks’ airport. In 2004, Nelson aggregated 20 studies covering 33 estimates of price discounts for 23 airports in Canada and the US to develop a model to explain the percentage drop per decibel increase in airport noise. The first airport expansion case in combination with noise discounts was analyzed by Mcmillen in 2004 on the basis of  the 1997 Chicago O’Hare expansion. In 2009, Dekkers & Straaten found that noise discounts for residential property at Amsterdam’s airport surpassed railway and road noise discounts. In 2015, Suksmith & Nitivattananon showed that the noise of aircraft near Bangkok’s airport  had an even higher impact on residential house prices than air pollution. 

The most similar analysis in terms of the data set and the focus on announcement effects is Kavetsos (2012), who measured the impact of the London Olympics announcement on residential prices. He found that properties in host boroughs sold at a 2.1%-3.3% premium after the announcement. 

Data. The data selected for this research are limited to Greater London due to its economic importance, a high international interest in changes of London property prices, and the amount of available public data. We use  transactions data with price and date information retrieved from the UK Land Registry.  Leasehold transactions and all but terraced and semi-detached building types are excluded. These 1-3 storey single family homes are very typical of London and allow for good comparability of sqqure meter prices. Single flats in multi-family homes, detached homes, and other types are excluded to avoid different square meter prices at the same address. The second data set used is the Ministry of Housing database, which provides detailed Energy Performance Certificates of the size and building material of each home. Since the data set is limited to Greater London and a large number of buildings are appraised in the metropolitan area of London, more than half of the addresses are matched from 1995 to 2018. The time window is reduced to 01.01.2015-31.12.2017 to cover all announcement dates tested.  

Methodology. We use a difference-in-difference approach, based on least squares, on the level of the individual property. For the treatment area, we compare the current  Heathrow noise map and with the one predicted for 2030.  The following control variables, which vary over time,  capture demographic changes on the borough  level: the percentage of elderly, young, and immigrants; population density, new unemployment rate, average taxpayer income.  GIS is used to create control variables for distances from each address to the nearest amenity that could influence the value of a property:  to the central business district, sub-centers, metro stations, rivers, kindergardens, schools, universities, and industrial areas.  Time fixed effects capture changes that affect both the treated and the control areas.

Preliminary Results.   The preliminary results are summarized in Table 1. They imply that there is a full 2 month reporting-timelag due to the transaction duration. Contrary to popular opinion, the impact on prices occurred shortly after the government acceptance was published on 14.12.15 and not on the initial planning report release on 01.07.15. The results show that political announcements have a positive relationship with home prices. The magnitude of the effects increases as announcements become more official and airport expansion plans become more realistic. One fact to be highlighted is that the downward movement of prices was unexpectedly reversed with a public release by Tory and Labour members to vote against the airport expansion. 

Table 1: Table of Results of OLS Regression
# Effect Date Price Discounts Announcement Date Announcement
1 2,2016 -4.27%* 14.12.15 Gov. accepts expansion
2 9,2016 -6.07%** 19.07.16 shareholders confirm runway funding
3 12,2016 -4.14%* 25.10.16 Gov. approves expansion
4 4,2017 -7.37%** 02.02.17 Gov. published its draft NPS on a third runway
5 6,2017 -4.53%* 26.04.17 call for tender expansion & logistics 
6 8,2017 -6.39%** 26.07.17 modified air quality plan
7 11,2017 8.96%*** 24.08.17 Tory and Labor announce vote against the expansion

Nguyen, Linh D., and Bertram Steininger. "The Impact of Under-Pricing of Default Risk on Investment: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Under-pricing the default risk is inevitable in a market with many lenders. Our study examines the impact of under-priced default risk on investment in the REIT sector where firms’ investment is highly sensitive to changes in credit market conditions. We find that REITs exploiting under-priced default risk have a higher level of investment than REITs that do not because the former could obtain access to loans having low rates of interest. In addition, REITs prioritize the choice of investment over the leverage choice. In contrast, we find evidence that under-priced default risk does not have a significant impact on non-REITs’ investment while their leverage does because non-REITs desire to reduce costs of financial distress.

Hills, Raewyn. "The impact of workspace design and fit-out features on meeting employees needs to enable within-team and between-team collaboration." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Collaboration is a feature of many organisations’ strategic objectives. The perceived benefits of collaboration include productivity gains and diversity in expertise to develop new ideas and resolve issues faster. However, creating the social-spatial conditions to enable employee collaboration can be challenging for organisations. 

The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into employees’ perceptions and experiences of collaboration in their workplace in the context of within-team and between-team collaboration. The study is based on a single case study of two business units within one organisation that relocated from a traditional office environment to an open-plan workspace. In total, 38 employees were interviewed and the researcher embedded herself within the organisation for a four week period to enable participant observation.  

The results indicate that the location of business units and different spatial configurations have a significant impact on employees’ perceptions of their space and how it may detract from, or enhance collaboration between different business units. Some teams were found to have nuanced needs which were not met by generic workspace design. The findings also show that the structural characteristics and the role of the team within the business may influence collaboration behaviours. For some teams, collaborating within their team and being located together within their own space is perceived as more important than collaborating with other teams within the organisation.

The findings have the potential to inform organisations when designing the layout of their offices and implementing work practices to encourage collaboration within specific teams and across the business.

Peng, Chien-Wen, and I-Chun Tsai. "The Influences of Housing Prices on Residential Mobility and Unemployment." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. A change of housing price has great impact on households’ housing equity and further moving decision. Some previous studies reveal that whether owning a home is an important factor of residential mobility, and a declining housing price may cause mobility lock-in effect and higher unemployment (Henely1998; Hsieh et al. 2003; Zabel 2012; Blozea and Skak 2016). However, some other studies find that the influences of housing price on residential mobility and unemployment are not significant as expected (Engelhardt 2003; Coulson and Grieco 2013; Vallentta 2013) or the influences are only significant in a smaller regional level but not significant in a national level (Modestino and Dennet 2013). This study reexamines their relationship by using panel cointegration method and the city level panel data during 1994 and 2017 in Taiwan. The empirical results reveal that housing price are cointegrated with migration and unemployment, and the influences of housing price on migration and unemployment are significantly positive and negative respectively in the long run. However, the influences of housing price on migration and unemployment are not as significant as expected in the short run. We used quantile regression to further examine their short run relationships. It shows that the influence of housing price on migration and unemployment might be asymmetric.
Candelon, Bertrand, Franz Fuerst, and Jean-Baptiste Hasse. "The Limited Diversification Potential of 21st Century Real Estate Markets: An International Analysis." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper analyses the diversification potential of direct and listed real estate markets. In a first step, we consider a parametric and non-parametric correlation analysis among 15 national real estate market annual return indices covering the period 2001-2017. To correct for small sample potential biases, confidence intervals are estimated with a percentile t-bootstrap methodology. Our findings are in line with previously reported results in the literature in that it confirms that real estate markets do not present significant diversification opportunities except for a few countries including Australia, Germany and South Africa. In a second step, we calculate the associated coherences to distinguish between long-run  and short-run diversification benefits. It appears that the prospects for diversification are generally low in the long run as markets tend to move together internationally whereas diversification can be achieved in  the short run in many cases. Finally, we consider a well-known CAPM specification using the S&P global All Property Index. The model is estimated in a panel fashion as in Petersen (2009) and Ando and Bai (2014) with country fixed effects. Three CAPMs are estimated using the direct real estate returns by property type in the 15 markets, including their short and long-run components.

Gauger, Felix, Jan-Oliver Strych, and Andreas Pfnür. "The link between coworking space demand and venture capital financing: Empirical evidence from European office market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Flexible office space is a game-changer in the real estate industry, forecasting a rapid growth over the next years up to 30.000 flexible offices in 2020 (Gcuc, 2017). Specifically, emerging coworking spaces build a growing field for individuals, entrepreneurs, start-ups, and corporations. The agglomeration of coworking spaces resembles entrepreneurship in incubation centers, but the community aspect among involved firms is strong and invaluable (Bouncken et al. 2018). One of the main reasons to work in coworking spaces is the collaboration and sharing of knowledge, resources, and ideas (Spinuzzi, 2012). This can breed new venture concepts, support the growth in an early start-up stage, and accelerate successful business models. However, entrepreneurs require capital, which is a challenge to obtain. Venture Capital (VC) is considered as a fundamental source of finance for entrepreneurial firms (Colombo et al. 2018). So far, there has been no research on the relationship between venture capital investments in firms using coworking spaces. Previous literature lacks the understanding of how coworking spaces support entrepreneurial activities and how this affects the raise of external equity. Our study aims at understanding the connection between coworking spaces with venture capital investments and spatial founding activities.

Our research focuses on addressing the question of whether there is a substitutional or complementary relation between firms’ funding by venture capitalists and their use of coworking spaces?
We examine the relationship between the existence of coworking spaces with VC investments and founding activities in the European Union to illuminate the macroeconomic impact of this recently emerged form of business model, transforming the real estate office market. 

First, we employed a webcrawler identifying coworking spaces throughout the big cities in Europe to generate data for the study. We then determined the size and founding date of each space and aggregated the data per city in order to conduct a panel over 9 years. Furthermore, we compiled VC data via the platform crunchbase. Using the crunchbase API we were able to obtain and compile global investments and funding information. Applying econometric methods, we identified the relation of VC and coworking spaces at a global and country-specific level using a regression analysis and addressing the endogeneity problem.  

The novelty of our research provides a new spatial component to the venture capital and innovation literature by showing how the physical organization of work affects entrepreneurial activities.The results are threefold. First, VC investors get guidance on where to supply venture capital, as venture capitalists tend to invest within a spatial proximity to the venue. Second, coworking operators can benefit from this analysis in order to attract venture capital and provide an ideal entrepreneurial environment. Third, from an urban perspective, the results influence cities and policy-makers. We show the impact of flexible office space and accelerators for entrepreneurial activities and the determining factors for capital inflow into a city, which is an important variable for economic growth.

Ng, Wei Keat Benny, Rianne Appel-Meulenbroek, Myriam Cloodt, and Theo Arentze. "The location choice of technology-based firms: a stated choice experiment of science park alternatives." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Technology development is increasingly important for creating efficient and sustainable economies. One of the innovation policies are science parks, area developments where technology-based firms and knowledge-based institutions co-locate. Preferences of technology-based firms relate to the presence and quality of certain facilities, services, and location attributes, which are means for achieving organizational goals. As science parks are locations that generally offer a mix of such facilities and services, it can be configured in numerous ways. The gap between what science parks offer and what tenants need has been acknowledged as troublesome by science park managers and tenants as this gap can negatively influence the performance of science parks and their tenants. Therefore, this study focuses on the preferences of technology-based firms in relation to science park attributes and if different target groups can be distinguished from these preferences. To collect data about preferences, an online survey is distributed among technology-based firms both on and off science parks in the Netherlands. Using the technique of stated-choice experiments, decision-makers of technology-based firms (i.e. CEOs) are presented carefully designed hypothetical science-park locations and asked to indicate which location they would prefer if they would relocate. In the experimental design used, each hypothetical location consists of seven attributes each with three levels. The choice data allows for estimating the preference values for the different levels of each attribute, while taking into account the respondent’s current situation, using a discrete choice model as framework (a latent class model). This research provides insights on which science park attributes are desirable for technology-based firms and how much firms are willing-to-pay for particular attributes. Furthermore, differences in preferences between distinct target groups among technology-based firms are analyzed. For practice, the insights allow management of science parks to better adapt services and location characteristics to demands of the target groups of interest.
Sicotte, Hélène, Hélène Delerue, and Andrée De Serres. "The Multifaceted Impact of Open Space on Teams Members." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Companies often rely on a project-based organization in other words by team and they provide increasingly open space hoping a good return on investment. If the effectiveness of the teams depends on the physical context and also on that of the organization and its vision of the work, each individual can react differently adding variability to the team response. Therefore, the research objective is to further explore the relationship between multidisciplinary new development product (NPD) teams and the perception of the workspace of different categories of team member: artistic, technological and management people.

Maier, Gunther, and Maximilian Schimanko. "The myth of the development team: The relation between developer and architect in real estate development projects." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper discusses the relationship between main actors in the development team of real estate projects. In particular we look at the relation between the developer and the architect. This relation, however, can be viewed as a model for other relations as well.

The textbook literature on real estate development typically uses the term "development team" for the large number of actors involved in such a project. The development team is described as a team that works together in order to successfully finalize the project. It is our hypothesis that this view is misleading and hides the numerous and fundamental conflicts of interest between these actors. Our paper discusses this situation theoretically. We use the theory of economic agents in order to derive hypotheses about potential conflicts and about actors' strategies to protect themselves against risk and financial losses.

In a second step we check these hypotheses via qualitative interviews. We interview architects and developers about their view of this relationahip and about their and their partner's actions.

Bienert, Sven, Maximilian Spanner, and Jens Hirsch. "The Pathway to Decarbonisation - Tracking Carbon Emissions and Reducing Stranding Risks within the Commercial Real Estate Sector." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Existing research on the impacts of climate change has put no sufficient focus on the aspect that climate change might endanger the business of real estate companies due to poor carbon performance.  The downside effects of climate change focused predominantly on natural risks and extreme weather events but gained more and more attention in recent years. This paper aims at the opportunities to optimise industry’s investments in energy efficient retrofits by making risks more transparent and by unveiling opportunities for property owners and investors. A continuous monitoring of the carbon emissions could accelerate decarbonisation and climate change resilience of the EU commercial real estate sector by clearly communicating the downside financial risks associated with poor carbon performance and quantifying the financial implications of climate change on the building stock. The industry has to be provided with country and sector-specific science-based carbon reduction pathways at building, portfolio and company level in tandem with financial risk assessment tools to cost-effectively manage carbon mitigation strategies.
Sylla, Maldini, Andrée De Serres, Ahlem Hajjem, and Elia Duchesne. "The power of collective intelligence to connect real estate and mobility." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Many advances have been made in research in the field of sustainable building (Dridi, 2017) as well as in the field of sustainable mobility (Banister, 2008). There is a close link between real estate, considered as a generator of displacement, and sustainable mobility, a concept that aims to rethink travel, better plan and reduce its carbon footprint. In fact, it is because buildings are immobile that we have to be mobile. Thus, the question asked in this research is: what role for sustainable real estate in the co-construction of mobility?

On the environmental front, the real estate and transportation sectors are responsible for a significant contribution to GHG production and global warming. The last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report published in October 2018 shows that the Paris Agreements, aiming to limit global warming below 2°C to 2100, will not be achieved if we do not put more efforts. In fact, ""global underwriting under the influence of the NDCs, global warming is expected to surpass 1.5°C, even if they are supplemented with very challenging increases in scale and ambition of mitigation after 2030 (high confidence)."" (IPCC, 2018). Therefore, it is important to be reactive and act on topics with huge impacts on the global warming. Global warming is caused by greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, one of the greatest threats to ecosystems (IPCC, 2018). According to the International Energy Agency, 15% of all of GHGs are produced by the road transport (IEA, 2016). If nothing is done to counter this trend, the situation will worsen knowing that the global population is expected to increase to 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100 (United Nation, 2017), with already 5 billion of urban population in 2030 (Seota, Güneralpa and Hutyrac, 2012). Therefore, it is important to rethink the way we move in order to reduce the need to travel (Banister, 2008).

The adoption of an ecosystem approach makes possible the identification of the existing links and interdependencies, between the actors involved in these two spheres of activity, and facilitates the global assessment of their environmental, social and economic impacts. As a result, the research project aims to take a step towards the adoption if this ecosystem-based approach by bringing together experts from both sectors to analyze their perception of the impacts generated by their projects on the other sector. Our basic premise is that a better understanding of the impacts of the projects implemented respectively by the actors in each of these two sectors can potentially provide avenues to better understand the interdependencies and interrelationships between real estate and mobility. Even better, it can contribute positively to sustainable development.

We conducted a first exploratory research to explore and measure the perception of real estate and mobility experts on the interdependence between sustainable real estate and mobility. In order to do that, we analysed the data collected during a workshop organised in 2018, conducted a survey and interviews.

  • The workshop “Sustainable real estate and mobility” was conducted at the World Summit on Sustainable Mobility, Movin'On 2018, organized by Michelin in Montreal. The ""burning question"" of this workshop was “What role will real estate play in the co-construction of mobility?”
  • We have collected and analysed the responses from a questionnaire distributed at the beginning of the workshop to 44 participants. This first material analyzed with SPSS, was aiming to determine the profile of the participants and their understanding of the mobility-real estate link. 
  • In addition, we realized nine interviews conducted with experts. We also analyzed material used during the workshop (drawings and sticky notes), which was interpreted by the experts during interviews. These interviews have been coded and analyzed with NVivo software in order to understand the perception of the experts towards this link sustainable real estate and mobility.

Interviews revealed that participants perceived the interaction between sustainable real estate and mobility around concepts such as nature, mixed use, architecture, collaboration and transportation. 

Surveys show that respondents believe that real estate projects they know will transform the way we use buildings in a long-term horizon. With regard to mobility, respondents believe that the mobility projects they know will transform the way we move in a short term horizon. Already, we can see differences in the time horizon of the perception of the impacts produced by the projects carried out respectively in real estate and mobility. This difference raises the question whether the impacts of one on the other are well taken into consideration.

The main success factors for the integration of real estate and mobility according to the survey seems to come mainly from significant economic interest (39.5%), a strong and sustained social action (25.6%), a well-adjusted regulation (27.9%) and others (7%).

The results also reveal that respondents consider that the type of change required for successful real estate-mobility integration are organizational (33.8%) and behavioural (33.8%) with the same importance. The technological factor (22.1%) and others (10.4%) appears less important.

In conclusion, results from the interviews show that the perception of the real estate - mobility link in the living areas has to include nature in order to motivate the citizens to adopt active mobility. Results also indicates that buildings within neighborhoods should consider the integration of mixed use and complementary services to reduce the need to travel. 

This first research explored the perception of actors, involved in real estate or mobility projects, on the contribution of sustainable real estate in the deployment of new mobility. It opens research avenues for the development of indicators to measure the evolution of this perception. The results also reveal the interest of the subject and the need for additional subsequent research to analyze the evolution of the perception of these actors.

Anenberg, Elliot, and Daniel Ringo. "The Propagation of Demand Shocks Through Housing Markets." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The presence of incumbent homeowners creates a friction in housing markets, as incumbents may wait to match with a buyer for their current home before buying their next home.  Exploiting a shock to housing demand caused by the 2015 surprise cut in Federal Housing Administration mortgage insurance premiums, we find that homeowners buy their next home sooner when the probability of their current home selling increases.  This effect is especially pronounced in cold housing markets, in which homes take a long time to sell.  We build and calibrate a model of the joint buyer-seller decision that explains these findings as a result of homeowners avoiding the cost of owning two homes simultaneously.  Simulations of the model demonstrate that stimulus to home buying generates a substantial multiplier effect in cold housing markets by freeing up owners attempting to sell their current home, allowing them to re-enter the market as buyers.

Ionascu, Elena, Marilena Mironiuc, , and Maria Carmen Huian. "The reflection of the sustainability dimensions in the residential real estate prices." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The stability of the housing market is crucial for sustainable development, and the monitoring and assessing housing price dynamics has become a standard practice in macro-financial supervision. In accordance with the EU approach to sustainable development, the paper aims to explore the relationship between housing prices as an informative indicator of the market and sustainability dimensions in the EU countries. Through an econometrical approach, the social and environmental implications on the housing market are investigated in relation to economic development as the most important factor for supporting sustainable practices. Variables that describe housing conditions, living environments and housing affordability are used as social measures, and energy consumption, renewable energy consumption and gas emissions as indicators of the environment. The low perception of the households about the sustainable effects on the housing prices is outlined. Housing fundamentals, such as disposable income, credit conditions and housing supply (construction costs and building permits) remain the most important factors that determine the household decisions. Based on the research result, policy implications are formulated in relation to the current conditions for sustainable development.
Dunse, Neil, and Colin Jones. "The Revolution in Warehousing: Changing Nature of Demand for and Supply of Logistics Real Estate." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The aim of the paper is to analyse the spatial pattern of the “new” logistics real estate sector growing within the UK and examine the process of change.  The study will draw on historic reviews of warehousing patterns and compare it with the current model of logistics encompassing the ‘last mile’.  It will look at the implications of technological change on the development and distribution of space and occupier requirements.  The research will be based on an interrogation the CoStar Property database to assess the changing scale of the logistics sector and identify how it has changed with the advent of ecommerce over the last ten years.  
Kwon, Chad. "The Role of Acculturation in Housing Markets: Evidence from the Institutionalization of the Cemetery." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

We study the relationship between housing markets and cemeteries. The latter has been scantly researched in the literature, perhaps due to: our collective avoidance of the thought of death itself, as explained by Ariès (1974); or limited availability of data. Recently, Canofari, Marinni, and Scaramozzino (2017) investigate the price of cemetery plots across the U.S., showing there is much heterogeneity in prices and locations of graveyards. The limitation of this and other empirical studies is their inability to identify individual burial sites by names, ownership types, and their characteristics. This motivates us to obtain more detailed information on cemeteries in the U.S. Our objective is to analyze the relationship between housing markets and these culturally significant landmarks scattered across the country.

de La Paz, Paloma Taltavull, Francisco Juarez, and Paloma Monllor. "The role of housing to identify Fuel Poverty." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The analysis of energy poverty has attracted increasing interest in some countries, including the United Kingdom, Ireland, Austria and New Zealand. Thomson and Snell (2013) examine the EU case as a whole. These studies have provided empirical evidence suggesting that households with some members over 60 years of age, families with children, disabled or chronically ill persons are the most vulnerable groups (ITD, 2001, pp. 8-9, cited in Boardman 2012: p 23) when it comes to energy poverty. The reason for this lies in the fact that their energy costs are higher than other basic needs (O' Neill et al., 2006). Empirical evidence also suggests that energy expenditure is essential; In fact, households could be considered as a "captive demand" affected by market control decisions - pricing - and this has severe social effects.

The relevance of this problem is twofold. Firstly, because an adequate temperature in the home ensures well-being at any income level. Secondly, because high energy costs could reflect low energy efficiency in buildings, which aggravates poverty situations. Reducing the energy bill does not necessarily imply a cold environment when buildings are energy efficient, a condition that could guarantee both lower energy costs and an adequate temperature if this problem is addressed to eradicate it. The latter relates energy poverty to the energy efficiency of buildings - a key element of EU energy policy to ensure the medium-term sustainability of cities in the European Union. If solutions are found to reduce fuel poverty problems, a twofold objective would be achieved: (a) to reduce energy consumption through a more balanced energy consumption scheme in buildings; and (b) to improve the health and welfare levels of disadvantaged households by reducing energy cost payments based on lower consumption. Incentive policies for investment in rehabilitation are the most widely accepted as they improve energy efficiency and reduce energy poverty.

The literature does not contain evidence that measures the sensitivity of energy poverty on changes in poverty levels or that assess the impact of property rates on energy scarcity. Economic logic supports the idea that a sudden fall in income can reduce the purchasing power and could have different effects on energy poverty levels depending on the type of tenure. 

In this paper, an indicator is calculated that identifies energy poverty in households using the Household Condition Survey (EU-Silk) for Spanish region, combining differently available indicators that allow an approximation to this phenomenon. It takes into account the structure of housing tenure and the level of poverty to explain fuel poverty. 

The present paper adds empirical evidence of the existence of fuel poverty using Spanish statistics to test two hypotheses. Ho1 is whether and how (housing) deprivation signals are linked to fuel poverty; whereas Ho2 tests the role of fuel poverty as an element directly related to poverty. They both allow us to support the Boardman (2012) views about the group of households affected the most by fuel poverty. This paper hypothesizes that a household is poor in energy if it cannot pay the electricity bill with the available resources. This implies that households whose income is close to a precarious without necessarily reaching the poverty line are considered (as there is no information on the cost of the electricity bill per household, it is not possible to apply the 10% rule nor to analyze whether households fall below the poverty line after paying the electricity bill).

The situation of the energy poor is approached by parameterizing a set of variables that capture the existence of energy poverty. The methodology used is based on an extraction of factors that include all these variables and capture their explanatory capacity to explain the situation of energy poverty. The factorial calculation is that the method extracts the common behaviour of these variables and combines them (linearly) in such a way that a variable is constructed that is an explanation of individual facts related to the analyzed phenomenon. 

Results suggest that the extracted factors combined with housing tenure characteristics, determine the existence of three main groups of fuel poor: (1) energy poverty derived from the status of' poor household', (2) energy poverty derived from the inadequacy of housing to household and (3) energy poverty derived from the low quality of housing. Using these factors in their standardized form, households are classified into two groups: those who suffer and those who do not energy poverty. 

Aha, Bismark. "The role of property finance in the performance of residential property markets: Evidence from UK House prices: 1967 to 2017." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Housing issues have become increasingly important throughout the developed world and have attracted much interest amongst economists, policymakers and the general public, following the catastrophic impacts of the 2007/08 global financial crisis. Globally, housing finance has undergone substantial changes, in terms of structure, composition and regulation, and witnessed considerable expansion within the last three decades. While studies abound seeming to explain national and regional house price movements, the dynamics of the housing market are still not widely understood. Though the importance of finance in the housing industry is generally well appreciated, very little attention has been paid to the drivers of housing finance and their impact on house prices. The determinants of mortgage credit growth and how these interact with macroeconomic, fiscal and regulatory policy variables to shape house prices are still not well understood. This study seeks to make an invaluable contribution to this understanding. by analysing house price dynamics in the UK from 1967 to 2017 and examining the role of mortgage credit in the performance of the housing market. The key drivers underlying housing finance expansion over the last 50 years are also investigated, paying particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic, fiscal and regulatory policy variables.
Newell, Graeme, and Jufri Marzuki. "The Significance of Childcare Centres as an Alternate Property Sector." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The alternate property sectors such as healthcare, data centres, student accommodation and self-storage have attracted considerable attention from institutional investors. Specifically, recent years have seen increased interest in investing in childcare centres as an alternate property sector. Major property players in Australia such as Arena and Folkestone have been active in the childcare centres property sector via A-REITs. This paper reviews the stature of the childcare centres property sector in Australia, as well as assessing the risk-adjusted performance and diversification benefits of childcare centres against the other main property sectors and asset classes. The strategic property investment implications are also highlighted.
Lin, Robbie, and Chyi Lin Lee. "The significance of logistics REITs as an institutionalised property sector in the Asia-Pacific." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Logistics properties have been an increasingly institutionalised property sector in the Asia-Pacific property investment space. It was mostly driven by the strong economic expansion and demographic population growth in the Asia-Pacific. Particularly, e-commerce continues to drive the demand for warehouse space that forms the key driver of logistics properties. The purpose of this paper is to assess superior risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of logistics REITs in Australia, Japan and Singapore over July 2009 - December 2018. To reflect the actual property allocation and major asset classes allocation within institutional investors’ holdings, this study deploys a constrained asset allocation analysis. The preliminary results suggest that logistics REITs as the value-added and strategic role in a mixed-asset portfolio to institutional investors seeking property investment in the Asia-Pacific. The practical property investment implications for logistics properties as an institutionalised property sector are also identified.
Lin, Robbie, Chyi Lin Lee, and Graeme Newell. "The significance of Residential REITs in Japan as an Institutionalized property sector." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Residential Real Estate Investment Trusts in Japan (residential J-REITs) have become an increasingly significant listed property sector recently. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of residential J-REITs in a mixed-asset portfolio context in Japan by assessing the significance, risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of residential J-REITs over July 2006-August 2018. The findings showed that residential J-REITs generally delivered superior risk-adjusted returns compared with the other sub-sector J-REITs, stocks and bonds in Japan over July 2006-August 2018, with desirable portfolio diversification benefits in the full mixed-asset portfolio context. Importantly, residential J-REITs are observed as strongly contributing to the mixed-asset portfolio context in Japan across the portfolio risk spectrum, particularly in a post-GFC context. This indicates that residential J-REITs are effective and liquid residential property investment exposure in Japan. This also confirms the effectiveness of institutionalised residential J-REITs. Given the solid residential property market fundamentals in Japan, an increased level of the institutionalisation of residential J-REITs can be expected.
Lin, Chao. "The study on the participation willingness of mortgage loan of rural real estate based on the risk perception." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The mortgage right of rural real estate is one of the legal and important property rights of the peasants, which is prohibited to be mortgaged because of rural housing land institute in China. In reality the financial demand of the peasants is huge in rural area, which need more invest into personal consumption, agriculture upgrading. So since 2016 the central government starts the pilot reform of mortgage load of rural real estate, which is beneficial to activate the land asset, increase the financing channel, promoting the strategy of rural revitalization. However, the peasants will take the risk of homeless as result from the uncertainty of public policy, sudden events, loan defaults. So the risk perception will have a great relationship with the participation willingness of the mortgage of rural real estate. Firstly, the paper does the theoretical mode between the risk perception and participation willingness and derives the hypothesis. Secondly the paper will conduct the Binary Logistic analysis by the ca. 600 questionnaires from Shanxi, Henan, Anhui province. Thirdly the paper will discuss the results of the quantitative analysis and suggest the related reform advices.
Trevillion, Edward, Alan Gardner, Stewart Cowe, and Colin Jones. "The Use of Benchmarks for Real Estate Portfolio Performance by UK Financial Institutions." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The MSCI/IPD database is the predominant reference point for peer and relative benchmarking in the UK but funds also apply an absolute benchmark approach. Absolute benchmarks take the form of inflation plus a target, typically between 2-7%   The recent past has seen the emergence of a willingness to alter benchmarks more often.  Increasing short-termism and the transformation of market fundamentals in the aftermath of the GFC have led to a re-appraisal.  In addition traditional indices are no longer true representations of the market given substantial inward investment.  Questions are now whether the nature of existing benchmarks are fit for purpose. 
Hackelberg, Florian, and Matthias Kirsten. "The valuation of Co-Working Spaces An integrated academic and practical view." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Background: In times of digitization and globalization, the use of flexible workplaces is becoming more and more established on the international and German real estate market. Although this form of collaborative work between different companies and individuals started in the 1990s, it has only recently emerged as a fast developing hype within the real estate industry. Neither provider, nor Investors have long-term experience in running and holding Flexible Workplaces. Accordingly, the real estate valuation as well is facing challenges to determine a suitable market value for a property with this type of use. The flexible and time-limited rental of desks or offices as well as the cooperation with third parties through the provision of service offer no historical series of numbers for economical margins and utilization. Accordingly, there is currently very limited market information available for a meaningful valuation. Moreover many valuers in the market still lack of sufficient experiences of how to approach this new phenomena which starts to be a significant factor within the office market. 

Area of research and questions to be addressed: When it comes the valuation of Co-Working Spaces, the following questions are currently among the key issues raised by real estate academics and practitioners alike and should be addressed in the meeting: 

What kind of co working space models are applied in the market. Are there clear definition and area-ratios of flexible workplaces? 

  • How are they structured and what kind of challenges does this pose to the valuation? 
  • Positive and negative location and property qualities? 
  • How are they different to existing operated properties eg Hotels 
  • What are the key performance indicators such as construction costs, utilization, lease agreements, rent. 
  • How can this be reflected in the valuation. What valuation models are to be applied? 
  • Multipliers and yields at flexible-office-buildings? Requirements on flexible-office-buildings from investor’s and bank’s point of view? 
  • Will fexible-office-buildings develop to an own asset class? 

Prof. Dr. Florian Hackelberg MRICS, Professor for Real Estate Valuation at the HAWK University of Applied Sciences and Arts in Germany, will introduce the outlined topic from an academic perspective, while M.Sc. Dipl.-Ing. (FH) Matthias Kirsten MRICS, valuation expert of Value AG the valuation group will share his view on the latest trends and developments in the market. 

Maier, Gunther. "The value of energy efficient housing - is there an incentive to make houses more energy efficient?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The basic question of this paper is the following: 'Do energy efficient appartments generate higher rents for their owners than comparable appartments with lower levels of energy efficiency?' This is an important question for environmental policy because if it is ansered positively, it generates an economic incentive for landlords to invest into the energy efficiency of buildings. 

We use data from the EU-SILC survey for Austria and a hedonic price approach to determine the marginal rent of more energy efficiency (measured in the form of lower heating costs). In this paper we revisit a topic that we have already discussed in a presentation eight years ago. At that time the results were very disappointing. The analysis produced a significant coefficient but with the reverse than expected sign. In the meantime, more waves of the EU-SILC survey have become available and the pool of respondents has been turned over. This allows us to revisit this question and to produce an answer with more empirical support.

Burke, Mark, and Franz Fuerst. "Time Intensity of Affordable Housing Utilisation." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Within the realm of affordable housing development, the time intensity and extent of utilisation of housing units is under-explored. While utilisation should intuitively contribute to housing value, current measures of density cannot provide indicators of utilisation dynamically and is often susceptible to inaccurate or misleading representations. The aim of this research paper will be to propose a number of additional indicators to explain utilisation of housing units, areas and neighbourhoods. The assumption of this research question is that properly utilised housing units would indicate value derived and that more accurate utilisation metrics can be constructed. To this end, the analysis conducted has used new methods of analysing utilisation in the form of data consumption at a neighbourhood and grid level as well as movement data from smartphone applications as additional inputs in house value estimation.
Toschka, Adrian. "To self-owned property through collective construction projects: an analysis of socio-economic and monetary factors." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Purpose: High rents cause displacement and segregation in German cities, which is why self-used residential property in cities is politically promoted. However, the affordability of homeownership is also declining in cities, which is why, groups of private individuals form private joint building ventures to buy urban vacant land to develop and build multi-family houses for later owner -occupancy. Therefore, it was investigated if private joint construction projects really represent an alternative to buying property from a conventional developer for small and middle-income households.

Design/methodology/approach: First, a cluster analysis is performed to identify disparities within the collected financing data of the members of joint building ventures. Second, the typical members of joint building ventures are characterized and compared with data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) using a regression analysis. The evaluation of the data also determines whether the construction costs of joint building projects are relatively low, and whether this makes self-used residential property affordable for households with low and middle income. 

Findings: The cluster analysis enabled typical groups of people involved in joint building ventures. In conjunction with the subsequent regression analysis, it has been revealed that members of joint construction projetcs are highly homogeneous in terms of formal literacy. However, the comparison with a reference group revealed that the decision for a collective construction project does not depend on the level of net household income. As the projects are partly carried out by non-professional groups, different stakeholders have developed various preconditions through increased professionalization in order to minimize the uncertainty of the construction projects.

Ionascu, Elena. "Towards more transparency in the real estate sector through sustainability reporting." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Transparency is a fundamental factor of the real estate market efficiency, which facilitates decision-making and coordinates the actions of the stakeholders. The paper aims to explore the new trends of real estate transparency through sustainability practices in correlation with global sustainable development goals (SDGs). The contributions to the achievement of the sustainability goals and the transparency in the environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting of the real estate companies are analysed. Based on the content analysis, considering both quantitative and qualitative information, the sustainability reports, published by the real estate companies in the GRI database and Corporate Register are explored, beginning with the 2016 year, the first reporting year after the global SDGs adoption. Sustainability reporting offers new perspectives for real estate corporate sustainability in order to increase the transparency of the sector. The real estate companies are increasingly interested in aligning sustainability practices with global sustainability goals. The majority of the firms are oriented to the consolidation of sustainable cities and communities in response to the several trends that affect urban environments around the world. Transparency is perceived as one of the most important principles of good governance and with high impact on the stakeholders and on financial performance. Technological adoption for big data processing, co-working and cooperation into expanded business networks, innovation by increasing spending on research and development outline new trends in transparency. 
Van De Wetering, Jorn. "Tracking operational energy performance in existing office buildings." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

In 2008, the European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) facilitated the introduction of two mandatory energy assessment methods in the UK. Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) reveal the modelled energy performance of buildings when they are constructed, sold or let based on their intrinsic energy attributes, whereas Display Energy Certificates (DECs) reveal operational energy performance in a subset of buildings that is operated by the public sector, based on annual energy consumption data.

EPCs were conceived as a marketing mechanism for property market participants and they have been used in studies that have sought to investigate the links between energy performance and financial performance of buildings. Yet they are based on modelled energy performance and the ratings that they express are hypothetical, whereas DECs are based on actual energy consumption figures. Furthermore, EPCs are valid for 10 years, whereas DECs need to be renewed annually.

This study will investigate energy performance patterns as recorded in DEC certificates in existing office buildings over time. The study uses detailed DEC data for commercial office buildings from the Department for Communities and Local Government. This dataset is matched to data on building attributes from CoStar UK to investigate the relationship between energy performance and building features such as age and building quality. This study models the magnitude of observed changes in operational energy performance in existing buildings, to investigate how operational energy performance assessment can be used to track energy performance improvements over time, and reveal how different control variables may impact on recorded changes. 

These findings will provide further insights into the effects and impacts of the introduction of energy certification for buildings. The further aim of this study is to develop a building typology based on commonly shared building and energy performance attributes.

Dorofeenko, Victor, Gabriel Lee, Kevin Salyer, and Johannes Strobel. "Uncertainty and Housing in a New Keynesian Monetary Model with Agency Costs." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper demonstrates that risk (uncertainty) along with the monetary (interest rates) shocks to the housing production sector that is subject to nominal frictions in prices and wages are a quantitatively important impulse mechanism for the business and housing cycles. Our model framework is that of the housing supply/banking/monetary sector model as developed in Dorofeenko, Lee, Salyer and Strobel (2016) with the model of housing demand with sticky pricing (Calvo) presented in Iacoviello and Neri (2010). We provide empirical evidence that large housing price and residential investment boom and bust cycles over the last few years are driven largely by economic fundamentals and financial constraints. We find the impact of risk and monetary shocks are the main impulse in explaining the aggregate and sectoral fluctuations. Moreover, in the presence of nominal frictions in prices and wages, the Loan to Value ratio that affects the household borrowing constraint plays a critical role for real aggregate variables. This comparison carries over to housing market variables such as the price of housing, the risk premium on loans, and the bankruptcy rate of housing producers.

Lorenz, Felix. "Underpricing in seasoned equity offerings: Evidence from European REITs and REOCs." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. Initial Returns; Market Timing; Reits And Reocs; Seasoned Equity Offerings; Underpricing

Because real estate investment trusts (REITs) are limited in their funding due to restrictions on the debt ratio and retained earnings, seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) are major events in the lifetime of a REIT and essential to ensure profitable growth (Ghosh et al. 2000). To finance growth strategies, there is consensus in the literature that REITs need to regularly raise money through capital increases and therefore access the capital market more often. Although SEOs play an important role for REITs as well as for real estate operating companies (REOCs), issued shares are regularly offered at an offer price significantly lower than the price the shares are traded on the offer day – defined as underpricing. Consequently, the issuing firm accept multiples of their year’s earnings as “money left on the table” at equity offerings (Goodwin 2013).

While underpricing is highly researched for initial public offerings (IPOs), far less is known about SEOs. Furthermore, literature on the pricing of seasoned offerings focuses on listed real estate in the US, with the European market remaining mainly unobserved. Because the overall market capitalization of REITs and the money raised through SEOs is rapidly growing in Europe with more and more countries implementing the REIT-regime, the objective of the study is to investigate underpricing in SEOs for European REITs and REOCs.

Considering equity offerings, literature provides several theories for the occurrence of underpricing. Theories on asymmetric information and value uncertainty based on Rock’s “winner’s curse” (1986) and Beatty and Ritter (1986) were among the first. They conclude underpricing being attributed to cost-intensive information gathering processes due to value uncertainty around the offering. Further explanations contain theories on placement cost (Corwin 2003, Goodwin 2013) and timing of SEOs (Baker and Wurgler 2002, Andrikopoulos et al. 2017). This study contains offering, company specific and market data to gain further insights on the “underpricing puzzle” with respect to European firms. Total proceeds and market capitalization are applied as proxies for value uncertainty around the SEO. We use relative proceeds to check for hypothesis on placement cost. Additionally, information on the debt ratio control for liquidity issues. In terms of timing theories, performance indicators and stock price volatility are used. We furthermore investigate differences in underpricing for REITs and REOCs. Due to higher transparency, we suggest lower underpricing for REITs than for REOCs being in line with previous studies (Ascherl and Schaefers 2016). We expect also to draw conclusion on whether real estate companies with a specialized investment focus outperform diversified ones in terms of leaving less money “left on the table” (Freybote et al. 2008).

This study is to our best knowledge the first to investigate underpricing in SEOs for European REITs and REOCs. We expect to identify determinants of underpricing for SEOs and analyze differences for REITs and REOCs. We furthermore suggest our findings to be lower than comparable studies on IPOs due to the disclosed track record after the IPO, but higher than comparable studies on SEOs in the US due to the maturity and market awareness of real estate companies, especially REITs, and the incremental conduction of equity offerings (e.g. ATM offerings). The goal of the study is to provide a better understanding of the underpricing phenomenon to contribute to the solution of the “underpricing puzzle”.

Derrington, Patrice. "Urban Development Theory: Review for the 21st Century." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

As the world’s population trends towards being predominantly urban, the delivery of the needed habitation in those centers is largely undertaken by speculative private real estate development.  This economic machine is prone to harsh cycles with extravagant wealth followed by widespread financial damage and, extending beyond the commercial impact, communities are protesting the dramatic changes to their neighborhoods and the rising social dislocation.

And, yet, though much attention is given to decrying these outcomes, the property development process at the heart of this dynamic is barely subjected to critical analysis and scholarly investigation.  In the aftermath of World War II, the recovering Western countries experienced a burst of real estate development – urban and suburban – and academic research and institutional formulations were commenced.  A variety of models of the development process emerged, broadly clustered into four types: sequential, cyclical, agency and production or structural.  Although initially attempting to encompass a mix of economic ideologies, by the dawn of the 21st century, analysis had largely bifurcated into either the neoclassical economic framework with its focus on the every-stronger capital flows and sophisticated investment structures, derived as corporate finance evolved along this route, or the Marxist-originating constructs that critically interpreted the urban form, and its socio-economic characteristics, that had resulted from the intense development activity.

At that point, with the exception of some pragmatic descriptions, primarily for pedagogical use, scholarship about the real estate development process effectively ceased.  The private sector business activity, despite the very vulnerable public context of the city, continues to be practiced as a trade, continuing much as it had done for centuries.  But, we cannot neglect this activity  - how do we revive the critical interrogation and advancement of the real estate development practice.

This paper reviews the early scholarship and, with the benefit of hindsight from the urban environment approaching 2020, elucidates key steps, features, and model mechanisms that might be used to form a platform for re-launching intellectual investigation.  Additionally, by referencing the compelling contribution from the few urban theorist who continued to address the activity, adding some recent new thoughts on the macroeconomic context, and also acknowledging the potential contribution of more incisive data gathering and analysis, a general direction for continuing this critical research is proposed.   The hope it that the property development process can comprise a self-critical dimension and progress the activity for the improvement of its own commercial condition and its impact on urban communities.

Bazame, Rodrigue, and Harun Tanrivermis. "Urban Land Issues in Burkina Faso: A Matter of Political and Institutional Failure in Urban Policy?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

This paper aims to review urbanization context in Burkina Faso and to analyse its implications in term of urban land management policy. Employing a qualitative methodology and conceptual lens of urban land development institutional aspect, this study benefited mainly form reviewing documents such as reports, scientific papers, plans, correspondences, as well as legislation and policies to analyse the land management context in urban areas in Burkina Faso through urban land supply process, urban land use patterns, use of land leverage tools and the political and institutional framework of urban policy.

The results show that comparatively to other West African countries, Burkina Faso is the fastest urbanizing with average annual urban growth rate of roughly 5% for the period 1996-2016.  In another hand, the country shows an increasing of its GDP per capita  for the same period at a rate of  3.45 per year; making the country the third fast growing GDP per capita after Ghana and Nigeria where the growth was 4.45 and 4.65 percent per year respectively. The rapid urbanization in Burkina Faso is also characterized by the fast increase in urban households. Considering the period 1996-2014, while total households in the country increased by 53 percent, urban households increased by 142 percent. The main challenge of these increasing urban households is undoubtedly the provision of sufficient and convenient housing and employment.

However and despite the political will, the successive governments fail to implement a coherent urban land management which has resulted as a surplus urban land supply especially for housing in the majority of towns/cities and which also lack of convenient infrastructures, with in addition almost half of the produced urban space remains unbuilt. The latter facts result as missing opportunity to use effectively land leverage tools like as land taxation, land value capture in a context where central and local governments suffer from deepened budget deficiency. In another hand, at the same time slums areas are still expanding with an increasing dwellers density.  In order to improve urban land management recommendations in term of urban studies, urban governance, urban policy financing are provided at the end of the paper.

Lo, Chien-Ling. "Urban regeneration and economic sustainability of office market: the case of Manchester, UK." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The market impact of planning policy became the focus of the debate on state-market relations (Heurkens et al., 2015). This research aims to expand this debate by employing a conceptual framework of market sustainability to ask whether regeneration policies have assisted Manchester office market evolving sustainably in the notion of market maturity, investment competitiveness and economic resilience. Since the late 1970s, property-led regeneration has been one of prevailing planning instruments expected to deliver economic growth through real estate development. Despite receiving criticism on lacking the social focus, the main purpose of property-led regeneration is to foster economic development of cities; however, little attention is drawn to test the policy outcomes in the context of economic sustainability. The investigation upon the historical evolution of policy impact on property market explains the long-term effect of economic sustainability reflecting the extent of market maturity, competitiveness and resilience since the behaviour of real estate market is highly sensitive to cyclical movements in economy indicating the various concerns over investment risk. A hybrid method is employed by firstly constructing the regeneration office index as well as conducting 22 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Office market in Manchester is an interesting case since it expanded substantially from the 1980s and arguably claimed to be the second largest market outside London by the late 1990s as a popular real estate investment hub for institutional investors. The research suggests that this market transformation is likely attributed to the city’s regeneration strategies, which intentionally enlarged the scale of office market particularly since the 1980s. Empirical evidence from this study suggests that the dominant entrepreneurism of urban regeneration led by the City Council over time could inadvertently contribute to the increase of systemic risk through the financialization of property market. 

Nappi-Choulet, Ingrid, Gisele de Campos Ribeiro, and Nicolas Cochard. "User satisfaction and workspace effectiveness: conditional effects of stress and workplace attachment." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

In recent years, companies like IBM and Yahoo have ended the practice of encouraging employees’ remote-work and reverted to getting workers back to the office. The reasoning behind this decision has been prompted by the findings of several studies showing that employees’ face-to-face interactions are positively associated with creativity and performance. Nowadays, offices are not viewed anymore as a mere source of expenses, but as places where people come together to socialize, share knowledge, mentor others and work as teams. Therefore, one of the central issues in workplace management is the opportunity that workspaces offer for accumulating knowledge or intellectual capital. In this sense, office spatial arrangements that favour the development of such potentialities become a full company resource that supports the development of collective dynamics and lends meaning to a common project, a company business. Workspace research must consider employees’ experiences, collaboration and the need for sensory and emotional engagement in the workplace (Gruber et al. 2015). Research on users’ satisfaction with the office environment has generated extensive knowledge of workers’ preferences relative to ambient and environmental conditions. However, limited research exists on how the workspace supports workers to perform their tasks (Visher, 2008; De Been & Beijer, 2014; Rolfö et al. 2018). To our knowledge, a limited number of studies focused on how employees’ satisfaction with their workspace environment is related to workspace effectiveness. The workplace is a territory around which the whole organization social life is shaped (Fisher, 1997). Office-settings environments are supposed to generate positive dynamics such as employees’ emotional connections with their workspace, collaboration, creativity, and performance. However, these dynamics engender negative outcomes unintentionally, one of which is stress. The aim of our study was to evaluate the relationship between employees' workspace satisfaction and workspace effectiveness through workspace attachment and stress. A web-based survey of 66 office employees working in different workspace settings was performed. Contrary to expectations, the results showed that satisfaction with workspace environment is not related to employees’ perception of workspace effectiveness; instead, this relationship is moderated by stress levels, and, mediated to workspace attachment. 

Purpose: To study the relationship between workspace satisfaction and workspace effectiveness.

Design/methodology/approach: A web-based survey of 66 white-collar functions employees working in a company on two sites and in different types of offices.

Findings: Controlling by office type, gender, age, the seniority in the company, and the time in the function, the results showed that the relationship between workspace satisfaction and workspace effectiveness is moderated by stress, and mediated by workspace attachment. 

Practical implications: Our study shows that employees’ positive evaluation of the workspace environment, while significant, is not a guarantee of workspace effectiveness. Instead, the perception of the workspace support for performing daily work is conditional on stress. When stress levels are low, the workspace contributes positively to performing daily work. When stress levels are high, the workspace contributes negatively to performing daily work. Workplace attachment mediates the relationship between workspace satisfaction and workspace effectiveness positively. Employees who are relatively more satisfied with their workspace tend to feel more attached to their offices, which in turn translates into a greater perception of workspace effectiveness.

Originality/value: This research helps to improve the knowledge of how the workspace supports workers to perform their tasks. 

Disciplines presented in the paper: Corporate Real Estate Management, Workplace Management, Human Resources, Environmental Psychology. 

Ryan, Stephen. "Using technology to speed up the research process." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The initial phase of any research project is time-consuming. Identifying and then gathering the relevant authorities takes time, as does reading and digesting their contents. This is particularly true when the research topic has already been extensively covered.

It is possible that some part of this initial phase can be done faster using technology. 

This does not require the most expensive and sophisticated software - there are some zero cost or low cost options available. 

In this paper, the author illustrates how natural language processing techniques and high-level programming languages can be combined with MS-Excel add ons and free online tools to greatly accelerate the real estate research process. 

The paper is easily accessible to those with no computer programming experience. It uses examples drawn from the real estate sector only. 

Hossain, Syeda Marjia, Jorn Van De Wetering, and Sarah Sayce. "Valuers’ Perception of Sustainability in the UK Commercial Real Estate Market." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. The observed increase in market awareness of climate change and other sustainability issues has translated into increased demand for so-called ‘sustainable’ buildings in the real estate sector in the UK. This contention is supported by the results of a wide range of academic studies, which have reported a positive pricing impact for superior sustainable credentials in buildings. However, these large-scale studies are not without criticism in terms of data, methodology and approach and consequently, their usefulness to valuation professionals. Less is currently known about the extent to which impacts of sustainable building attributes  on prices and values are visible to property valuers and how this is recorded by them. Valuers rely on analysis of comparable transactional evidence in ways that allow them to isolate the impact of specific features  from other value drivers and  their experience, judgement and heuristics play a major role in this process. There is currently less understanding of how valuers are applying existing methodologies to incorporate sustainability attributes into calculating market and investment values and how current methodologies for valuation facilitate or constrain the consideration of such attributes. 
This research will review the existing sustainability and valuation literature along with guidelines issued by the RICS to identify how existing processes consider sustainability attributes. It will then investigate the extent to which valuers make connections to such attributes and which adjustments, if any, they make to account for their presence. 
To investigate and answer the above research problems, three issues will be addressed. Firstly, how property valuers in the UK understand commonly understood sustainability attributes and their relation to values; secondly, how valuers collect data related to sustainability attributes and report this; and, thirdly, barriers they face while considering sustainability in existing valuation processes. This research will collect data from valuers in the form of primary data by using an online survey and interviews. The results of this survey will provide a further insight into the extent to which sustainable building features are currently considered in valuation processes.
Amidu, Abdul-Rasheed, and Deborah Levy. "Valuers’ Perceptions of Valuation Quality: A Qualitative Investigation." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019. This paper provides insights into what valuation quality means for valuers in commercial property valuation practice.  It explores the influence of tangible and intangible factors on the construction of meaning of valuation quality and how this  is represented in practice.  Although the valuation profession, like many professions, has developed standards and procedures that are used in practice to evaluate the work of members, little is known in valuation literature about what valuers perceive as constituting a quality valuation.  Using an interpretive approach, employing semi-structured interviews, this study identifies the important constructs that shape the way valuers predominantly framed their conceptions of the meaning of valuation quality.  The study also highlights possible conflicts between some of these constructs of valuation quality.  The findings of this study are relevant for valuers, other stakeholders to valuation engagement and academic researchers seeking to develop a deeper understanding of how valuation quality in achieved in practice.
Macfarlane, John. "Valuing a Large Public Housing Portfolio Using Mass Appraisal Methods." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Public Housing Authorities are required to account for the financial performance and condition of their property portfolio on a regular basis.  In Australia, where property and housing are largely the responsibility of State Governments rather than the Federal Government, public housing represents a significant proportion of a State’s asset base.  As such, regular (annual), accurate and reliable portfolio values are required.  Under international accounting and valuation standards, market values – not nominal replacement values based on costs – are required; even though most properties in the portfolio are not immediately marketable.  Values (Land, Building and Rental) of individual properties, and groups of properties, are also required to effectively manage the portfolio.

In New South Wales (NSW), the State Government housing portfolio (of 150,000+ dwellings) is managed by the Land and Housing Corporation (LAHC).  The value of this portfolio is approaching $A 50b ($US 36b).

How should such portfolio valuation and assessment tasks be undertaken to be able to make portfolio estimates to a given level of accuracy at a minimal cost; while also maximising the quality of valuation information at the individual property level?

As this is an annual exercise, how can the rolling cycle of valuations be constructed to ensure quality improvement over time?

These questions and related issues will be examined in the paper.

White, Michael, and Qiulin Ke. "Volatility Spillovers and Regional Office Market Connectedness in the UK." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Economic integration and regional connectedness within countries may imply limited opportunities for investment portfolio diversification. Previous research on UK office markets has identified similarities between regions in relation the sensitivity of rent to demand and supply side factors (Hendershott et al., 2002). Furthermore, Attanasio et al., (2009) note that there may be some form of common causality that links regions therefore leading to significant correlations. However, regions vary in value added and as indicated by Stevenson et al., (2014), the performance of real estate assets is driven by economic fundamentals more so than in the case of capital markets. While international investment may deliver portfolio diversification, the fact that real estate investment is highly concentrated in a small number of key cities whose economies are often underpinned by the financial sector, may result in renewed interest in, and a re-examination of, investment opportunities in regions within a given country.

Therefore, in this paper we examine office markets in the six main regional cities in the UK, after London. First, we provide evidence of the extent to which regional real estate markets and economies are correlated. Second, we adopt a generalised vector autoregressive approach to capture return and volatility spillovers. Third, following the research developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) we employ variance decomposition analysis to find the share of each city’s own variance to itself and to other cities. Finally, we whether relationships are stable or time varying and therefore the extent to which diversification benefits may still exist.

Viruly, Francois, Kathy Michell, and Eliane Monetti. "What is different about the body of real estate knowledge in Africa and Latin America." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Real estate education across the globe has, at its core, certain universal and value-neutral skills and knowledge. This knowledge has developed over decades to reflect the functions of specific market structures which characterise real estate markets. Moreover, it is reflective of the maturity of property markets, and as such, the tools developed reflect specific market structures and the players that function in them. Real estate analysts are becoming increasingly interested in real estate markets in emerging markets/economies, particularly in Africa. The challenge facing these property practitioners  is that dominant real estate theory  and related practices  are based on mature markets within an industrialised context and therefore do not accurately reflect real estate markets and decision making  in emerging economies. The context of real estate markets in emerging economies often tend to be characterised by  a low level of market maturity characterised by dual economies , a lack of  market transparency, high levels of uncertainty, and the existence of communal/customary and informal rights in the ownership of real estate. In light of this, it is argued that real estate theories and taught curriculum  should better reflect the peculiarities and level of maturity of the markets they attempt to analyse.

Through the application of qualitative, semi-structured interview surveys with academics from several prominent African and Brazilian  institutions specialising in real estate, this research examines the academic syllabus taught by universities in order to assess the degree to which local real estate markets are integrated into university programmes in these countries. The research is based on data gathered at the African Real Estate Society and Latin American Real Estate Society annual conferences in 2019.

Kvedaraviciene, Ieva Augutyte, and Rūta Kazlauskaitė. "What makes employees in modern offices happy and productive: the effects of internal and external office environment." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Effects of the office environment on employee well-being and performance have been analysed quite extensively. Nevertheless, the existing knowledge is rather fragmented, with majority of studies addressing some specific aspects of the physical environment and lacking a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of the physical environment on employee well-being and performance. Besides a vast majority of prior research investigates the effects of the internal environment, while studies of the external environment have only gained research attention in the past few years. In this study we look into the effects of both internal and external physical environment as well as overall satisfaction with the physical environment on employee motivation, job satisfaction, cooperation and self-perceived performance quality and accuracy. To test the above relationships, we conducted a survey of employees (n=274) working in modern offices (A and B class built or fully renovated not earlier than 2000). The results showed that there is a positive relationship between internal environment and all dependent variables under this study, while the external environment is positively related with motivation, cooperation and self-perceived performance. There is also a positive association between overall satisfaction with the physical environment all four dependent variables. In addition, our results show no significant association between office type and employee well-being and performance, while perceived privacy was found to be positively associated with job satisfaction and cooperation.

Leung, Charles Ka Yui. "When education policy and housing policy interact: can we correct for the externalities?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Since K-12 education is provided locally in the U.S., housing policy and education policy are inevitably tied together. To deepen our understanding of this institution, we build a spatial equilibrium model where the peer group effect and local public finance play essential roles. Our model is calibrated to matches several stylized facts of the labor market and housing market. Also, our counter-factual policy analyses yield new results. First, the location of public housing units (PHU) is crucial to the welfare implications of the policy. Second, even when public housing policy (PHP) and housing voucher (VC) program deliver similar results at the household level, PHP tends to benefit the offspring more, while VC is the reverse. Third, combining school finance consolidation (SFC) policy with PHP can outperform single-policy regimes, even lead to a Pareto improvement. Welfare results in the short and long run can differ significantly.

Rymarzak, Malgorzata, and Tore Haugen. "Who should own higher education institutions buildings? A comparative analysis of arguments and practices in Norway and Poland." In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The examination of European countries reveals differences in the campuses ownership and management. In more and more countries there has been a tendency in recent years towards decentralization (defined here as devolution of power and responsibility from the state level to higher education institutions (HEIs) level). Higher education systems (especially western and central-eastern ones) have made it possible for HEIs to own buildings as decentralization has been seen as a more efficient, lean and effective management strategy. However, this does not apply to the Scandinavian countries where centralized model is quite common and campuses are owned either by the state or a semi-public agency. In Norway, where the universities have traditionally been founded directly by the state (Ministry of Education) the ownership of buildings and facilities have been transferred to the universities after the building project have been done by the semi-public agency Statsbygg. The university colleges are normally renting their buildings from the semi-public agency or in smaller scale from the private market. 

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to compare two opposite campus ownership and management models in Norway and Poland and discuss the arguments in favour of centralized and decentralized model.

Design/methodology/approach – This study has adopted qualitative document analysis to explore the advantages and disadvantages of centralization and decentralization of campus ownership and management based on the examples of Norway and Poland. These contradictory models were the reasons for choosing the two countries, as well as was the contrast between them in terms of population size and the number of HEIs. 

Findings - The paper demonstrates two opposite campus ownership and management models and indicates that both centralization and decentralization present their own challenges. The Norwegian centralized model based on a belief that with a relatively small number of HEIs located on a large, sparsely populated national territory, centralization as a policy mechanism allows achieving results such as economies of scale, efficiency, implementation of best practices, development of specialized functions, optimization of resources and creation of flexibility via a large pool of assets.  With a governmental initiative to create larger and stronger Norwegian HEIs, in  2015-2017 the majority HEIs (universities and university colleges) merged with 2-3 partners in order to be stronger in research and education and competitive institutions in national and international perspective.  

In comparison, Poland represents a large, densely populated country in which, after the fall of communism in 1990, a decentralized model was implemented as a promising strategy for improvement in management and administration of over 100 public HEIs. However, because of inadequate planning of decentralization results by policy-makers and limited experience in campus ownership and management by HEIs, some of HEIs have been facing considerable problems. A lack of sufficient mechanisms for coordination of this transformation resulted in negative outcomes for several HEIs, such as over-investment and low utilization rate of campus space.

Practical implications – This paper can be a resource for HEI policy makers, funding and supervisory institutions as well as HEI chancellors, financial directors and campus managers.

Oladiran, Olayiwola, and Anupam Nanda. "Why do Natives and non-Natives in the United Kingdom have different Spatial Patterns?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

The United Kingdom, like other OECD countries, has attracted a high number of immigrants from around the world in the last half-century. The liberalisation of immigration for commonwealth citizens between 1948 and 1972 and subsequent accession to the European Economic Community afterward set the stage for the heterogeneity of the UK population. Housing is an intrinsic element of an immigrant’s voyage and is typically linked with local and regional spatial patterns. Thus, the UK regional and local spatial dynamics may also be linked to the dynamic forces of immigration waves to the UK in the last half-century. Anecdotal evidence suggests that immigrants in the UK prefer to settle in the South-east of England compared to other regions of the UK. London particularly houses approximately 2.8 million immigrants, which is over 40% of the total immigrant stock, thus, immigrant and ethnic clusters are entrenched and expanding. 

Literature reveals that factors such as regional economics, regional housing markets, regional labour markets, and urban dynamics are key determinants of regional and metropolitan spatial patterns. Furthermore, individual taste and preferences, socio-economic factors, demographic factors, and socio-cultural factors also play major roles in defining local and neighbourhood patterns. 

This paper aims to empirically analyse other factors which may be influencing regional and local spatial patterns of natives and non-natives beyond the conventional factors accounted for in literature, and on a multi-generational scale. Using the UK Longitudinal Survey data which captures the demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and spatial patterns of natives and non-natives, we model the spatial patterns of UK natives and multiple generations of non-natives. Our core interest is to find out particularly why South-east England and the Greater London areas receive a higher proportion of migrants compared to other parts of the UK despite the affordability challenges in these areas.  Furthermore, we analyse the effects of immigrant clusters on the spatial patterns of natives. 

By analysing the regional and local patterns of immigrants, we can improve insight on the social and economic integration of first and second-generation immigrants. Furthermore, we are able to identify the unique patterns of second-generation immigrants and compare these to natives and to first-generation immigrants in a unique way that has previously not been applied to spatial modelling. Additionally, by mapping the spatial patterns of natives and multiple generations of non-natives, we can link these patterns to housing demand, rents and house prices at regional, metropolitan, local and neighbourhood levels. More fundamentally, the impact of immigrants on the local economy is a highly debatable topic globally, hence the findings will improve insight for policymakers, urban planners, housing economists, and political economists.

Nadler, Michael, and Christoph Ebbing. "“Scan to BIM”-technologies for the management of pre-existing buil-dings and portfolios – is there an added value for real estate owners?" In 26th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Cergy-Pontoise, France, 2019.

Scholarly debates as well as real estate industry surveys show that geometric building data (area sizes such as building floor areas) in particular are of great importance to many decision-makers. Taking a look at the building life cycle it becomes clear that building data is used in different process stages and management tasks e.g. cost calculation, technical planning, project controlling, marketing, contracting, valuation, facility management as well as financing. For this purposes, what real estate management need is a connected single data base, where visual and alphanumeric information is linked and data adapted dynamically. 

While this database can be created from scratch in the classical (new) real estate development process by implementing “Building Information Modelling” (BIM), existing literature reveals the problematic situation in the redevelopment process of pre-existing buildings. Here, developers and investors often find incomplete, decentralised, outdated and inconsistent building information that is rarely digitized and therefore not comparable to the standards of new developed properties. This creates not only an information risk, it ends in a very time consuming and error-prone building analysis and due diligence processes (done by hand). While the impact of incorrect building data on a single property may be small; as bigger the management tasks become, the greater impact a reliable digital database could have. Since the necessity of property redevelopments in existing buildings rises because of competitive pressure in urban environments, this problem is getting more and more important for real estate owners.
New technologies have the potential to overcome these problems. Building data capturing with 3D-laser-scanning, mobile mapping systems, or 360-camera systems as well as BIM-enabled software systems are possible instruments for the real estate industry to improve the pre-existing building data base for all future lifecycle phases of existing buildings. However, these tools are currently very rarely used by actors in the real estate sector, which is why there is neither widespread dissemination nor research on the added value of such new digital solutions compared to analogue 2D building information (for example paper lists and separate plans).

In order to close this research gap, the current state of research (literature review) is reflected and an indicator-based classification system for existing real estate buildings (similar to an ABC analysis) in relevance to suspected information risks will be presented. This first steps help to select properties from an existing real estate portfolio. Case studies are used to compare pre-existing databases and new 3D-modelling solutions (based on a “Scan to BIM” workflow). This allows first conclusions regarding the added values of these technologies in the management process of existing buildings for real estate investors, developers and asset manager.