Keywords Abstract
Mustafa, Nur Khairul Fa, Siti Hafsah bt Zulkarnain, and Mohd Yunus A. Rahman. ""Comparative Study on Refurbishment Project Process of Government and Non Government Organisation in Malaysia"." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The refurbishment project escalates as a sustainable building commodity that can be obtained to a marketable price and accordingly the reasons for the decision to initiate a refurbishment project are seen as a basis of demand. Refurbishment project becomes financially interesting whereas it increases the performance and value of the property. Early refurbishment or a short refurbishment cycle indicates that the built environment does not offer expected satisfaction to many building owners. Thus, refurbishment provides competition to all pleasure generating commodities. The reuse or recycle of building stock for refurbishment purposes is largely required as to make use and improve the existing resources. Lack of control by the Local Authorities has resulted unknown statistical data in refurbishment project. Enhancing the building refurbishment into a wider approach is a greater indeed which enable to provide well organize control and planning of refurbishment work. This study was aimed in providing a better understanding on the refurbishment projectís process implemented in the Malaysianís construction industry. This study was mainly provided results and findings of an interview which was conducted to identify the current practice of the government and non government organization in dealing with the process of refurbishment project. This study argued that their practice may be less effective and suggestion to the best practice in carrying the refurbishment process was compared with Standard Refurbishment Practice (SPR), a model practiced in United Kingdom. It also highlighted the problem related to the refurbishment process conducted throughout the case study which was further analysed from the organizations. This study concluded with the recommendation on the proposed refurbishment process in fulfilling the requirement among all.
Nunnington, Nick. ""The Use of "Challenges" to Drive Autonomy, Employability and Student Engagement: A Journey through and Evaluation of a Challenge Based Project"." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The use of challenges to stimulate enquiry and problem based learning is being introduced into a number of real estate courses throughout Europe. At the same time the built environment professions are moving towards a more multi_disciplinary and international approach in solving ever more complex real estate and business problems. There is a need therefore for built environment education to ""collapse boundaries"" between professional disciplines and across European borders and design projects that stimulate, enthuse and capture the imagination of learners. This working paper examines the evolution of a challenge based approach, the associated support required to be effective and proposes a model to calibrate projects, which will be tested in future research. Taking the reader through one of the projects, it critically examines the role of the challenge aspect and provides a critical and comparative evaluation of the project through student and tutor feedback and structured focus groups. The paper: * outlines the pedagogic underpinning of the use of ""challenges"" * describes a series of innovative challenges * evaluates the challenges from both tutor and student perspectives * proposes a new model to calibrate and test the challenge of projects. There is a plethora of articles and papers around problem and enquiry based learning but relatively little in terms of the complexity and challenge needed to stimulate deep learning. Written by an advocate of challenge and a practitioner who has been developing complex international ""challenges"" this paper undertakes a longitudinal review of a project that has run successfully for a number of years. In conclusion it proposes that challenge is an essential component of successful problem/enquiry based learning and the effectiveness of projects relies on a series of inter_connected variables that could be measured to examine future projects. Keywords: Autonomous Learning, Multidisciplinary, Enquiry Based Learning; Role Play, Virtual Learning Environment."
Constantinescu, Mihnea. ""What is the Duration of Swiss Residential Property? An Empirical Estimate Using Transaction Data"." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The appeal of the duration concept comes from its simplicity and wide-use in portfolio immunization. Various duration measures are available for fixed income securities with predefined cash flows (Macaulay duration, modified duration) or interest-rate dependent cash flows (effective duration). Real estate shares some features with fixed-income securities (relatively stable cash-flows) but it also has very distinct properties (no fixed maturity, possibility toîupgradeî the asset through investment). Furthermore Swiss residential rental real estate is particular within the real estate universe due to the existing legal restriction of the rent revising process. The paper starts with a description of the rent revision process and the interactions between the rent-controlled and the free market. An overview of the existing studies on duration of real estate indicates why the existing measure cannot be used for the Swiss case. I then proceed and try to develop an empirical measure of interest rate sensitivity for the Swiss market. The empirical model starts from the dynamic DCF framework developed by Campbell Shiller 1988. Given the statistical properties of the data, the Campbell Shiller is expanded into an autoregressive distributed lag model. Focus is placed on developing a sound econometric model with significant estimates. The main results indicate an interest rate sensitivity of -3.9% with changes taking up to 3 quarters to be incorporated in the price process. An interesting result in this study is also the existence of an autocorrelation structure in the transaction-based index. Tests of normality and auto-correlation of residuals certify that the OLS assumptions are met.
Glumac, Brano. "A Challenge of Brownfield Redevelopment." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. One of the biggest challenges in urban areas is the redevelopment of brownfields. Most brownfield site are currently not fully in use or even totally vacant, derelict or contaminated. They are not available for intended use without a drastic intervention. During the decision making process the developer has to deal with a complex of environmental, economic, legal, social, and land use issues. Brownfield problems are not easily to resolve and the real estate features of these sites deserve special attention. This papers deals with the complex decision making process during redevelopment and with the selection of critical REFs by the developer. Typical real estate development assumes the existence of especially two characteristics: a) the institutional factors enabling investment and rewards for undertaking a project; b) the urban infrastructure to which the project is expected to connect the technologies and construction used in development, together regarded as Real Estate Features (REFs). There are more than a thousand factors which should be checked before the land acquisition and more than a hundred risk types involved during the process of development. They are all correlated. Nowadays classification derived in heuristic way and does not incorporate more rational approach. This paper introduces both a qualitative technique and a quantitative method. Quality Function Deployment is a market oriented qualitative technique for upgrading a product value. It is used as stepping point to realize basic requirements of developers and major characteristics of urban development area giving insights about their correlation. Further on, Risk Analysis is compared as appropriate methodology for indentifying the key real estate features. The findings - data collections, are based on interviews with professionals addressing their decision making process. We strongly support idea that using the mathematical oriented (scientific) tools will demystify traditionally fogy real estate business.
Borgersen, Trond-Arne. "A Comment on the Procylicality of Mortgage Lending." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper comments on the procyclicality of mortgage lending. By applying a framework for credit constraints along the lines of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), the credit risk assessments underlying mortgage lending is shown to contain a potential regime shift. Depending on the relationship between house price growth and mortgagorsí alternative rate of return, the weight given to collateral and debt-servicing ability may vary according to the house price cycle. While debt-servicing ability might dominate lending when house price growth is low, collateral may take precedence when price growth increases. The regime shifts might come about when house price appreciation is expected, the competition for mortgage market shares is tough, or mortgagorsí internal guidelines for credit risk assessments are weak. In the case of regime shifts, increased house price growth might, first of all, stimulate owner occupation and LTV-ratios, and second, make the financial accelerator context specific.
Francke, Marc, Bert Kramer, and Tessa Kuijl. "A Comparative Analysis of Dutch House Price Indices." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Several house price indices exist for the Netherlands. These different indices come from different sources. In this paper we analyze indices from the Dutch Association of Real Estate Agents (NVM), the Land Registry Office (Kadaster), ORTAX and ABF. First we discuss the index construction methodologies used. Then we analyze and compare the statistical characteristics of these indices on a national and regional level and per house type. And finally we test for statistical differences between the indices. Large differences are found in reliability, sample representativeness and statistical characteristics. We conclude by drawing a number of conclusions regarding the most appropriate index and level of specification (by region and type) to be used in risk analyses by property investors like housing corporations. ""
Levy, Deborah S., and Anthony De Francesco. "A Comparative Study Into the Effect of Sustainability on Corporate Property Investment Drivers in the UK, Australia and New Zealand." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Over the last few years the notion of sustainability has gained momentum within investment markets, particularly for property assets. A number of key drivers have been identified as affecting property investment decisions within the context of sustainability. This paper reports on the outcome of a study comprising in-depth interviews with key players in the property investment market in the UK, Australia and new Zealand. The study seeks to understand the impact of these drivers and their effect on the investment product landscape, including decision relating to future investment strategies, property development and the management of existing property investment portfolios across different cultures.
Levin, Eric, and Gwilym Pryce. "A Disequilibrium Model of the Housing Market: Implicit Selling Time as a Signal of Optimal Holding Periods and Buyer Valuation." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. We develop a theoretical model of house market disequilibrium. Price and quantity adjustments occur as the consequence of inventory adjustment in the absence of a market maker. This approach reveals a process of dynamic adjustment whereby sellers alter their reservation prices in response to implicit time on the market as a signal of excess demand. Unobservable equilibrium house prices are estimated using time on the market and house price data for Glasgow between 1999 and 2007. Empirical estimation models sellersí reservation price response to the overhang of unsold houses and the excess demand curve within an econometric framework.
Jefferies, Rodney. "A Generic Property Interest Real Value Investment Valuation Model." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Jefferies, Rodney. "A Short History of Income Property Valuation Models - The 17th to 21st Century." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Chang, Yao-Ling, Hao-Ching Hsia, and Yu-Ying Hung. "A Study of Multilevel Causal Model for Land Use Change." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Land resource is restricted and scarce, in order to avoid developing in inadequate manner, the evolutionary process of the land use change and the natural and artificial reasons should be considered to plan for the land use plan. The theoretical system and analytic frameworks will complete at first through documents studies, theories analysis and related references comparison. The analytic frameworks including three components, the first one is to master the key factors of land use change, the second one is to approach the casual relationships between the factors among land use change, and consequently is to establish the integrated multilevel analysis for urban land use change to interpret local land use change, which applied the concept of multilevel and through the land use change overall interpret model and individual spatial choice model. We hope it would be more complete simulation and forecast of land use change through this study, and helpful to the relevant studies.""
Manzato, Gustavo, Theo Arentze, Harry J. P. Timmermans, and Dick Ettema. "A Support System for Delineating Location Choice Sets of a Firm Seeking Office Space." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Traffic, accessibility, employment location conditions, economic aspects, land-use policies among others are some factors that influence the location decisions of office firms. As a multidimensional decision making process, elements for supporting real-estate managers and planners in such decisions are needed. The objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tool to support firms seeking office accommodation within a given regional or national study area. The basis of the tool relies on a matching approach, in which a firmís characteristics (demand), environmental conditions and office spaces on offer (supply) are analyzed separately in a first step. Subsequently, a matching process between them is performed and, finally, a suitability score is obtained for every office space on offer by applying some value judgment (satisfaction, utility etc.) to the overall match. Focusing on location aspects, expert knowledge about location decisions of firms/organizations regarding office accommodation, acquired from a group of real-estate advisers and stored in decision tables, constitutes the core of the model. Apart from the delineation of location choice sets for a firm seeking a location, this design of the system supports two additional types of queries. First, the agent supports the more generic problem of determining the allocation between a set of firms, on the one hand, and a set of vacant locations, on the other. Second, the agent provides the facility of finding firms that meet the characteristics of a given location. Technically, this problem is equivalent to a problem of finding the delineation of location choice sets for a firm seeking a location. Both of them consist of a sorting procedure. As a GIS-based tool, the results can be visualized using GIS features such as thematic maps and overlay techniques, allowing several types of analyses.
Chikolwa, Bwembya. "A-REIT Public Debt Offerings: Determinants and Market Reaction." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The paper examines factors that influenced decisions by Australian Real Property Trusts (A-REITs) to issue public debt offerings from 2000-2007 and the equity valuation effects of these offerings. Extant literature shows that on average investors react either weakly negative or not at all to announcements of debt offerings. The framework proposed by Mizan et al. (2009) is used to examine A-REIT decisions to issue bonds and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBSs). The standard event-study methodology is used to survey and interpret valuation effects of A-REIT bond and CMBSs offerings. A-REIT bonds are treated as unsecured bonds and CMBSs as secured bonds since CMBSs structured in Australia mainly follow the secured lending mechanism, unlike the true-sale mechanism followed in other parts of the world. It is hypothesised that the strength of the balance sheet will influence the decision by A-REITs to issue either bonds or CMBSs. It is further hypothesised that A-REITs with favourable investment opportunities have a positive response to announcements of their CMBS offerings whereas A-REITs with poor investment opportunities have a negative response to such announcements. The study is of significance in allaying the current perception by investors that public debt offerings by A-REITs are risky investments which has seen credit spreads rise to make their issuance uneconomical. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of the public debt offerings for the growth of the A-REIT market.
Chin, Lawrence, and Chen Binjuan. "Adaptive Reuse and Conservation: Case of Singaporeís Chinatown." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. As heritage gains importance to become an integral part of the urban identity for the present and the future of cities in their bid to set themselves apart from one another, the status of adaptive reuse has been elevated to re-image and re-imagine the city. While conservation is highly promoted, the underlying philosophy is placed on economic pragmatism. This paper examines the adaptive reuse of buildings in Singaporeís Chinatown and its relevance to the heritage conservation and tourism. It evaluates the types of attitudes towards ëauthenticityí and, the important aspects and dominant features that contribute to the realization of authentic experiences for visitors in this conservation district. The findings revealed that the differential definitions of ëauthenticityí under the three types of authenticity and consequently a variation in emphases in the different aspects of site presentation have resulted in a less intensive experience for tourists inclined towards objective authenticity. Even as similar aspects were identified, the interpretations of the same stimuli differ. The main contribution of this research is to provide an understanding of the touristsí mental processes and identify the dominant aspects and features of presentation that contribute to the authentic experience. These findings will allow urban planners, tourism authority and private investors to come up with strategies that can achieve a fine balance between tourism needs and heritage conservation.
Forster-Kraus, Stefanie. "Affordability in Germany: ìThe Influence of Future Demographic Trendsî." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Kimmet, Philip. "Aircraft Noise, Risk and Impacts." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Technological developments since the 1960s have reduced the absolute noise impact from aircraft on communities in the vicinity of airports by a factor of four, while the perceived risk associated with aircraft noise events in terms of human and economic impact continues to rise. Further reductions in noise levels are possible with existing technology, however this entails trade-offs such as thirstier jet engines and longer, less direct flight paths. Analysing the way aircraft noise is perceived, and how risk and blame has evolved in modern society, provides a critical lens for examining community perceptions of noise disturbance, its capacity to detract from life quality, and its impact on asset value. It may also help to re-frame the aircraft noise problem as a more palatable equity and amenity issue The management of information ñ understood as knowledge ñ is central to risk perception, and has a major influence on market-based transactions. In short, real estate values are to some extent a function of information dissemination, as it is the free flow of information that helps to redress market flaws. Cultural theory suggests that it is institutions that are the managers and gatekeepers of information. It positions the ërise of riskí as an increasingly important determinant of decision-making by helping to attribute ëblameí to human actors and actions, thereby limiting the liability of risk averse governing regimes. The upshot is that aircraft noise levels and durations deemed ëacceptableí to affected communities, are ultimately not determined objectively on a cost-benefit, well-being, or sustainability basis, but is instead negotiated by politically charged social contract. More objective assessments may serve to counter-balance the role that risk is playing in exacerbating the aircraft noise perception problem.
Thompson, Bob. "Airport Property." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "From a commercial standpoint, airports are seen as vital strategic infrastructure, facilitating the flow of goods and people. Property in and around hub airports is valued highly and, with restricted supply and burgeoning demand, looks to retain that status. However, not everything in the garden is rosy. The main hubs are heavily congested and will get worse, leaving the way open for second-tier airports to become much more competitive over the next decade. Meanwhile environmental pressure threatens to stall any increases in capacity. This paper looks at the spatial implications for development of real estate and value around European airports over the next ten years and proposes a new airports index that includes property alongside costs and indicators of relative congestion.""
McBreen, John, Pablo Jensen, and Florence Goffette-Nagot. "An Agent-Based Simulation of Urban Rental Markets." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. We simulate a rental housing market with search and matching frictions, in which both landlord and tenant agents are imperfectly informed. Homogeneous landlords set rents to maximise revenue, using information on the market to estimate the relationship between asking rent and time on the market (TOM). Tenants, heterogeneous in income, engage in undirected search accepting residences based on their idiosyncratic tastes for housing and a disagreement point derived from information on the distribution of offers. Landlords deduce hasard rates across asking rents through knowledge of the number of recent rentals and the total TOM of both these residences and of vacant residences in narrow intervals of rents. They fit an estimation of the relationship between TOM and rent, and using the expected duration of stay for a tenant and a discount rate, set their asking rent to maximise their revenue. Tenants see a percentage of offers and from the distribution of offers decide their disagreement utility for acceptation of a visited residence. The model is closed with equal numbers of tenants and landlords, who own one residence each. The simulation converges to a steady state with dispersed rents and positive vacancy rates and times on the market. The main results concern the asymmetric effects of increasing information on both sides of the market. When tenants see more of the distribution of offers: the population rises and tenants' utilities rise as does overall welfare, as tenants learn to refuse high rents. When landlords have greater information: landlords' utilities fall and overall welfare rises slightly, as increased competition between landlords causes rents to fall. When two types of landlords are present with different levels of information, the better informed landlords charge lower rents, and experience lower vacancy rates.
Grunenberg, Gero, John Moohan, and Paul Royston. "An Analysis and Evaluation of the Effects of Lease Terms on Effective Commercial Rents in Frankfurt." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "nvestigate the effects of variations in lease terms on the effective rents and effective rents per square metre of commercial properties in Frankfurt. A review of previous literature, largely based on cross-sectional hedonic price studies, will provide a framework for the discussion and evaluation of the application of cross-sectional hedonic rental analysis (the characteristics theory of value) to the analysis of the determinants of commercial rents in Frankfurt in 2007. ëAtisrealí, a major property company, provided data on transaction rents and other attributes for 555 commercial properties in and around Frankfurt in 2007. For a variety of reasons the data set to be analysed was reduced to 343 letting transactions. A model produced an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.84 for the rents of properties and an adjusted coefficient of determination of 0.65 for the rents per metre squared of the same properties. The models tested conventional attributes of the properties including physical factors such as size, quality features such as the degree of modernisation and location in the CBD or peripheral districts. However, the models also sought to test for variations in qualitative characteristics such as variations in lease terms. Thus this paper seeks to analyse the size and significance of and to evaluate the consequences of variations in lease terms for effective transactional rents. The authors are aware of philosophical, methodological and practical issues associated with the application of the characteristics theory of value in commercial property markets ñ these issues will be discussed and evaluated. Recommendations will be made for the development and application of pluralist quantitative/qualitative approaches to analysing and evaluating rents in commercial property markets.""
Wu, Fan. "An Analysis of Quality Attributes of Housing Environment in Guangzhou China Using Expert Judgments." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Reed, Richard, and Sara J. Wilkinson. "An Analysis of the Energy Efficiency of Multiple Land Uses in a Central Business District." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This report presents the findings of a two stage research project commissioned by the RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) Education Trustees. The first report (2006) examined all office buildings in the Melbourne CBD using a high level of detail including building age, area, quality and number of employees in the building. This report follows on and examines the energy efficiency of all relevant building stock (29 land uses) located in a central business district (CBD) with Melbourne, Australia selected as a typical example of a global city. Rather than using a sample of buildings designed to represent all buildings, this research analysed individual floors on every relevant building equating to 1,125 buildings. The results give a unique insight into the profile of carbon emissions based on land use in a CBD and consequently illustrate energy efficiency and climate change mitigation potential. The analysis has produced five key findings with accompanying recommendations for addressing the contribution of CBD buildings towards climate change. It should be noted that, in a similar manner to the broader real estate market, property markets are influenced by an extremely large number of factors including prevailing market conditions, government policy, investor sentiment and overall market perception. Consideration should be given to these external influences when interpreting the key findings and recommendations, as well as observed variations between different global cities including characteristics such as age of stock and the highest and best use of CBD land. These key findings and accompanying recommendations illustrate the steps required to effectively reduce the level of CO2 emissions produced by Melbourne CBD buildings. Much research has featured a focus on static ëone-offí timeframes of the CBD market with a strong reliance on assumptions or using a sample only of the stock. This report overcomes these deficits and in this process produced five key findings and accompanying recommendations. There is another very important aspect to be emphasised in this conclusion. Since the initial stage 1 report only three year earlier the Stern (2007) and Garnaut (2008) reports have both concluded that much greater reductions are required within a shorter time frame to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions and the global climate. In order to fully embrace the level of change requires a whole of market commitment by all property players ñ anything less will not deliver the reductions required.
Füss, Roland, and Zeno Adams. "An Equilibrium Model of German Real Office Rents Using Panel Cointegration Analysis." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Using panel data covering 30 urban areas for 16 years, this is the first comprehensive study which investigates the rental adjustment process in the German office market. In doing so, we use the recently developed panel cointegration technique for non-stationary data in conjunction with an error correction model (ECM). The application of this approach enables us to overcome the data limitations, particularly existent for the German real estate market. The primary motivation is to provide useful insights into the long-term relationships and short-run dynamics of real office prime rents. To this end, we estimate a reduced-form equilibrium model, in which office employment is defined as proxy for demand of space, and stock data as well as the vacancy rate are included as supply drivers, respectively. The empirical evidence suggests that a one percent rise in office employment increases real rents on average by 2.23% through higher demand of office space. On the other hand, a one percent increase in the supply of office space measured by office stock decreases real rents by 1.71%. Furthermore, due to a decrease in the occupancy rate and an increase in the stock variable at the same time, real rents decrease by 2.17% much stronger. Finally, the results of the error correction model show that deviations from the long-run equilibrium lead to an adjustment process which restores equilibrium within two years.
Gan, Bee. "An Evaluation of Office Occupiersí Needs and Preferences." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Purpose ñ Office provision is an important component of the property sector. Stakeholders such developers, investors and service providers have a vested interest in establishing office user needs and preferences. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the preferences and needs of office space usersí. Design/methodology/approach ñ The authors evaluates the literature that categorises office occupiersí preferences. The occupier perspective of office provision is fully explored. Office occupier segmentation and analytical tools are identified. Findings ñ This paper establishes that the office environment is more than a just the physical environment. Office space should be viewed from multiple dimensions, not just physical. Increased understanding of the physical, virtual and social elements of the space as well as of the usersí and occupiersí values, needs and preferences form a platform for new kinds of services, products and business opportunities for the various players in the property sector. A deeper appreciation of occupier preferences is developed to include the virtual and social space requirements. Originality/value ñ This paper will demonstrate that a greater understanding of office occupiersí and usersí preferences adds to the organizationsí knowledge. This additional knowledge enables the opportunity to provide space to support the well-being and productivity of the individual space users. Keywords: Workplace, Office evaluation, Occupier perspective Paper Type: Research paper
Salem, Mohammed, and Raymond T., Abdulai. "An Examination of the Attractiveness of Gulf Cooperation Council Real Estate Markets to Potential Global Real Estate Investors." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. As globalisation of investments increases, global real estate investors might have to consider other emerging markets apart from those of East Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. There is, therefore, the need to start developing a better understanding of other markets like those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the Middle Eastern region. The aim of this paper is two-fold: (a) to provide an overview of the GCC economies; and (b) to explore the key cross-border barriers and the attractiveness of such real estate markets to global real estate investors. The paper is part of an ongoing research project investigating investment decision-making and strategies adopted by global real estate investors when venturing into emerging markets, particularly, the GCC region. Primary data collected through interviews with practitioners in the real estate industry in Europe, specifically the UK and Luxemburg, as part of a pilot study and secondary data are presented and discussed. The analysis shows that global real estate investors are determined to invest in different attractive parts of the region particularly, Saudi Arabia. However, the decision to invest in the region is affected by various factors like lack of transparency, difficulties associated with finding appropriate local partners and lack of knowledge about the potential of GCC markets.
Salem, Mohammed, and Raymond T., Abdulai. "An Examination of the Attractiveness of Gulf Cooperation Council Real Estate Markets to Potential Global Real Estate Investors." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. As globalisation of investments increases, global real estate investors might have to consider other emerging markets apart from those of East Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. There is, therefore, the need to start developing a better understanding of other markets like those of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in the Middle Eastern region. The aim of this paper is two-fold: (a) to provide an overview of the GCC economies; and (b) to explore the key cross-border barriers and the attractiveness of such real estate markets to global real estate investors. The paper is part of an ongoing research project investigating investment decision-making and strategies adopted by global real estate investors when venturing into emerging markets, particularly, the GCC region. Primary data collected through interviews with practitioners in the real estate industry in Europe, specifically the UK and Luxemburg, as part of a pilot study and secondary data are presented and discussed. The analysis shows that global real estate investors are determined to invest in different attractive parts of the region particularly, Saudi Arabia. However, the decision to invest in the region is affected by various factors like lack of transparency, difficulties associated with finding appropriate local partners and lack of knowledge about the potential of GCC markets.
Nappi-Choulet, Ingrid, and Marion Cancel. "An Index of Global Occupancy Cost Per Employee: A Study of Service Activities in Paris Business Districts." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This research project focuses on the question of head office locations for large service firms in the Paris region, with particular emphasis on FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) industries and other service industries such as legal, accounting and consulting firms. The aim of the research is to propose a measure of the average global occupancy cost per employee for a head office established in the Paris region. For each geographical sector in the region ñ particularly the Paris Central Business District, La DÈfense Business District, and the Western Crescent ñ we used hedonic rent modeling to estimate the 2007 global occupancy cost per employee for a head office, depending on its total number of employees (at least 100 employees, as the data used concerns offices of more than 2000 sq.m.), the type of building (new or second hand), and the lease contracting date. This global occupancy cost per employee for 2007 incorporates rents (adjusted according to Franceís Construction Cost Index for leases contracted pre-2007) as well as most other real estate costs such as rental charges and taxes. While occupiers generally refer to rent per sq.m. when looking for a new office location, this new measure of global occupancy cost per employee takes account of per-employee occupancy ratios. This research shows that although a new building has a higher rent per sq.m. than a second hand building, it is generally also more efficient and allows better optimization of surface use for the occupier. It is thus observed that putting the head office in a second hand building can ultimately be more expensive than in a new building. This measure is also used to compare the occupancy cost per employee for a head office in a given geographical sector of the Paris region with the occupancy cost per employee for the same head office under a new lease contracted in 2007, in the same geographical sector, or in a different sector. The occupancy cost differential can be used to analyze the attractiveness of geographical sectors and potential relocations of head offices within the Paris region, for the business sectors under examination. Based on assumed future developments in on rents and Franceís Construction Cost Index, we propose scenarios on the future head office relocation opportunities within the Paris region in the next few years.
Reed, Richard, Anita Bilos, Sara J. Wilkinson, and Karl-Werner Schulte. "An International Comparison of International Sustainable Building Tools." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In recent times there have been a rapidly increasing number of sustainable buildings entering the real estate market. Many of these buildings differ considerably with respect to their sustainable features, either from a design and/or performance basis, although a wide range of sustainable building assessment tools are now promoted and readily available throughout the world. Unfortunately many of these tools differ considerably with regards to what they actually assess, how they operate and whether they can be compared directly with assessment tools from other countries. This paper undertakes a unique international assessment of global sustainability tools and critiques their individual strengths and weaknesses. Most importantly the focus is placed on which tools from different countries can be directly compared with each other i.e. is a five star building with one rating system directly comparable with another rating system. The results of this paper will lessen much of the confusion and uncertainty that accompanies assessment tools for sustainable buildings, which in turn will assist investors, developers, tenants and government bodies to make informed decisions about green buildings. In addition it is envisaged that removing some of the uncertainty associated with sustainable buildings will increase the transparency for stakeholders and assist them to embrace sustainable buildings with more confidence.
Hohenstatt, Ralf. "Another Hunt for the Capital Structure Puzzle: Relationship of Leverage and Returns in the REIT Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Since the evolutionary work of Modigliani and Miller (1958) financial researchers make desperate efforts about dynamics of capital structure - not mentioning a well-defined inference of leverage on returns. In the past decade this is also a concern for real estate research because most financial studies ignored the real estate market due to specific characteristics compared to other industries. But especially the analysis of REITs opens chances for consistent investigations thanks to their strict legislation and resulting homogeneity. A few studies about capital structure of REITs have been done so far. This paper follows the work of Giambona, Harding and Sirmans (2007) who confirmed Barclay, Marx and Smith¥s (2003) finding of the joint determination of debt and maturity. Beside Ooi, Ong and Li (2007) who used the Fama and French (1992) approach this is the second study which tries to specify an equation with returns of REITs as the depend variable and it is the first one including leverage as an explanatory variable. Hence using a system of equations this article investigates further issues of endogenity problems. In particular I connect returns with different aspects of debt regarding maturity or subordination which is of major interest for analysts and investors. Analyzing an unbalanced panel data set for US-REITs from the 1993 to 2008 period by employing a simultaneous equation model (SME) shall shed up light on the following aspects of the REIT industry: substitutive or complementary relationship of debt maturity and leverage, further endogenity problems of typical approximations used in empirical research like profitability or growth opportunities and finally inference about different measurements of leverage and returns.
Barbu, Daniela, and Ana Maria Gramescu. "Application of Modern Methods in Real Estate Valuations." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Glaesner, Sebastian. "Appraisal within Open-End Real Estate Retail Funds in Germany: Explaining Value Changes in Crisis Year 2006." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In Germany, open-end retail funds represent the prevailing form of indirect real es-tate investment for private investors. End of 2007 more than 30 funds amounted to over 80 bn Euros in assets. The appraisal of such fundsí properties has been ques-tioned as fund performance used to show a remarkably stable pattern over time. The aim of this paper is to analyze the value changes of properties within the portfolios of German open-end real estate funds to shed light on appraisal patterns of these major investment vehicles and on German appraisal practise in general. Thereby, the crucial question will be addressed whether significant appraisal differ-ences occur on portfolio level between different funds. For this purpose, the state-ments of accounts of all 24 German open-ended retail funds that are investible for private investors have been analysed and 1.334 value changes of identical proper-ties between 2005 and 2007 could be extracted. A model including including crucial valuation variables is derived and tested to explain the variance in the change of property values among different portfolios. The results give new insights into factors influencing appraisals of properties within the portfolios of open-end real estate retail funds in and around crisis prone year 2006.
Spinelli, Luca, Claudio Giannotti, and Gianluca Mattarocci. "Are Portfolio Diversification Criteria Useful for Hotel Investments?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Studies about hotel real estate market consider, prevalently, investment characteristics, managerial problems and macro-economics trends. Articles about real estate investment vehicles are scarce and generally concerning Anglo-Saxon countries. Authors stress the differences in the performance achieved respect to other real estate sectors and do not pay close attention to the portfolio construction strategies. In the Italian market the attention given to hotels is increasing over time and, in the last years, some data providers started to collect information about the sector dynamics. The first real estate vehicle specialized in the tourism sector is issued in the 2006 and, even if the Italian market is one of the main international tourism & leisure market, until now there are six specialized real estate funds. The paper proposed tries to evaluate the benefits related to a Markowitzís diversification approach for the construction of a real estate portfolio specialized in the hotel real estate market. The aim of the work is to study if a geo-sectorial diversification allows to reduce significantly the risk exposure of a real estate vehicle. Literature review proposed analyses the specific risk characteristics of hotel investments and presents the main performance measures available, looking also at advantages and limits of each approach. The last section considers a database collected by AICA, Italian Association Hotel Companies, in order to evaluate revenue dynamics in the hotel real estate market. On the basis of Markowitzís theory, the analysis proposed tries to define the best diversification strategy for the portfolioís construction in the hotel real estate market. Results achieved demonstrate that the standard geo-sectorial diversification allows to achieve good results only if some concentration constraints are established because there are some cities and/or hotel categories that are outperforming for all the time period analysed.
Haddock, Michael. "Are Prime Rents an Adequate Proxy for ëThe Marketí?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. There is a fundamental difficulty in the analysis of performance in European property markets caused by the lack of long-term data series and the poor quality of what data is available. In many cases, the best data that is available over more than the last few years is prime rent and yield series quoted either quarterly or annually. This is in stark contrast to the data available in North America, where data are more objective and reflective of the ëwholeí market. Two questions therefore arise: - Is it possible to adapt analysis techniques developed in the US, designed to work with objective, ëwhole marketí data to European markets where the available data is scarcer and much more subjective in nature? - Are conclusions based on ëprimeí rents applicable to the market as a whole, or just representative of a small part of the market? In this paper we have used information available from CB Richard Ellis in a number of European cities to generate average transacted rent series. The relationship between these average rent series and a number of other measures of ërentí such as the traditional prime rent, peak rent agreed, and IPD valuation based series where available is examined to establish whether the differences between the behaviour of prime rents and íthe marketí is significant. We also examine some of the commonly held beliefs about prime rents ñ that they are less volatile than average rents ñ that they are leading indicators of whole market movements ñ to see if they are justified.
Hemphill, Lesley, Stanley McGreal, Ali Parsa, and Stephen Roulac. "Are Tall Buildings and a Cityís Skyline Emblematic of City Competitiveness?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Tall buildings are a common building typology within most major cities and they are representative of the outward signs of globalisation, capitalism and wealth. This visual imagery has become an important selling point for cities seeking a competitive advantage. Similarly, global investment markets have become increasingly mobile seeking out investment opportunities that epitomise a companyís power and status. It is therefore important to potential investors and city officials to establish if economic stability and hence investment attractiveness is reflected by a cityís skyline. This paper examines whether the presence of tall buildings is a significant determinant of city competitiveness and success. The paper utilises Emporis high-rise building data, City Mayors ranking distributions and urban competitiveness data from both the Global City Competitiveness Report (CASS, 2008) and work by Beaverstock et al (1999) on a ëworld city rosterí as a basis for drawing statistical correlations between the presence of tall buildings, global city status and overall city competitiveness.
Iman, Abdul Hamid Mar, and Norlia Mazlin Lasimon. "Assessing Industrial Locational Advantage Across Residential Neighbourhoods Based on Spatial Margin to Profitability Method." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Selection of industrial location is normally based on the physical rather than the economic characteristics of a particular geographic area such as the relative distance to various market segments within residential areas. Economic criteria are seldom used for their apparent sensitivity to market and economic factors. However, economic criteria for industrial site selection have an advantage of efficiency on the basis of maximization principles. In this context, geographic locations can be ranked according to the relative size of business profit that can be generated from certain industrial activities. This paper attempts to demonstrate the application of spatial to margin profitability (SMTP) principles for such a purpose. Fourteen planning blocks within the jurisdiction of Johor Bahru City Council were selected for the study whereby industrial locations were ranked based on the level of per capita profit generated from bread manufacturing industry. Questionnaires were distributed to respondents in the study area to gather data on revenues and costs of raw materials, operation, management, marketing, and transportation in the bread-making industry. Network analysis was performed using a Geographic Information System software - ArcView 3.3 - to determine the cost of distributing bread to various residential neighbourhoods in the study area. It was found that the existing bread-making industry in the study area was located not at the most profitable sites although it was located within planned industrial zones. The analysis also showed zones of more profitable locations where bread-making industry can be better sited. The recommendation for future research was to integrate physical characteristics and SMTP capacity of particular geographic areas in industrial location planning.""
Eves, Chris. "Assessing the Impact of Streetscape on Residential Property in Lower to Middle Socio-Economic Areas." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "A number of factors have been shown to influence residential property prices in various locations. Studies have identified the importance of location in relation to services, transport and proximity to negative factors such as power lines and cell phone towers. Often the socio-economic status of a residential precinct can determine the overall quality and nature of the streetscapes in that area, with higher value suburbs or locations offering a better visual appearance compared to areas where these factors are not present. However, does the same value for a good streetscape apply in lower socio-economic areas or a buyers more motivated by less aesthetic factors such as size of the house, construction materials or land size. This paper analyses specific streets in the lower to middle socio-economic suburbs of Christchurch New Zealand to determine if the location of a house in a street with good streetscape appeal has greater value, investment performance and saleability compared to adjoining streets with less aesthetic appeal.""
Newell, Graeme. "Assessing the Linkages Between Economic Competitiveness and Property Market Transparency." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Yiu, Chung Yim, Zheng Hua Huang, and Yishuang Xu. "Asymmetric Income Segregation and Spatial Autocorrelation of Housing Rent." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Income segregation is found to be a common phenomenon, which imposes far-reaching implications on housing and social policies. However, the focus has long been on its extent rather than on its distribution. This study investigates the asymmetry of income segregation and the relationship between income segregation and spatial autocorrelation of housing rent in Hong Kong, by studying the census data in 2001 and 2006, compiled by the Hong Kong SAR Government. The result shows that segregation is more intense among high household income districts, and the pattern is highly correlated with the spatial autocorrelation of housing rent. This phenomenon helps explain the underlying cause of income segregation. We contend that positive feedback effects are imposed between the quality of land attributes and income segregation, thus resulting in a co-reinforcing and self-organizing force between spatial autocorrelation of housing rent and household income segregation (analogous to the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction). The contention is tested empirically in Hong Kong, where is recognized as the most income-unequal city by UN-Habitat in 2008. Providing a very large-scale public housing policy but relying strongly on land sale income, Hong Kong provides a very good natural experiment for an empirical test of the asymmetry of income and segregation as well as the relationship between income segregation and spatial autocorrelation of housing rent
Madritsch, Thomas. "Best Practice Benchmarking in Order to Analyze Operating Costs in the Health Care Sector." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The purpose of this paper is the introduction of a best practice tool in order to analyse operating costs in the health care sector. Researcher present the findings by using a new innovative benchmarking tool to analyze operating costs, identify cost drivers and illuminate the savings potential.In order to determine the volume and to prioritize the cost drivers, CAREB (Computer Aided Real Estate Benchmarking) software was used, which was developed by the Institute of Real Estate Benchmarking at the University of Applied Sciences KufsteinTirol, Austria. Statistic analyses were conducted to investigate savings potential, determine the best case of the sample and submit recommendations to the decision makers. Compared to conventional benchmarking methods, this model allows a holistic view on the key factors of cost drivers and reveals the savings potential for each dimension. The key figure which reveals the largest potential gives an indication of whether a residential home has general problems with efficiency (high costs per bed), with occupancy (costs per resident) or with the space efficiency (costs per average space consumption). Furthermore the study reveals the immense savings potential in the costs of various services. The results should help to establish cost benchmarking increasingly and develop it as a strategic planning tool in order to support management in the health care sector in the decision
Jingryd, Ola. "Brokers and Notaries: Convergence in Legal Structures." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009.


Demary, Marcus. "Business Cycles, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Their Role for Housing Price Dynamics." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This study analyses the impact of technology shocks, inflation and monetary policy on house prices as well as the impact of the housing market on the business cycle, inflation and money market rates by structural vectorautoregressions for ten OECD countries. We find out that in nine of ten countries in our sample housing prices declined after a monetary policy shock, while they fall in eight of ten countries after a negative technology shock. This reaction is straightforward because regressive monetary policy increases the cost of financing real estate projects, while a recession correlates with declining investments. The reaction to an inflationary shock is twofold. In two countries house prices rise in response to inflationary pressures while they fall in the other eight countries. Rising house prices can be due to the fact that households increase their demand for real estate in order to use it as a hedge against future inflation, while falling house prices are due to the fact that the monetary authority raises interest rates in order to fight inflation, which increases the cost of financing real estate projects. The reaction of the money market to increasing house prices is also twofold. In half of the countries interest rates respond with an increase, while they decline in the other half. Interest rates might fall because increasing house prices increase the value of collateral which allows banks to increase their credit supply. On the other hand households increase their consumption expenditures which cause inflationary pressures on which the monetary authority reacts with raising money market rates. Forecast error variance decompositions yield the result that real restate price fluctuations can be explained to 25 percent by these macroeconomic shocks. On the other hand real estate price shocks explain also a part of macroeconomic fluctuations.
Vanichvatana, Sonthya, and Annop Peungchuer. "Capital Strategy of For-Sale Property Development Companies in Thailand During Economic Recession." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. After the last economic crisis (year 1997 ñ 2000), 200 out off 2000 real estate development companies in Thailand had been able to survive. Experiences and strategies for surviving from past downturns by these developers are worth learning, as well as their preparations for the current business recession phase. This research studies business strategies applied to survive through the last economic slump and also the strategies planned to survive through the current crisis (year 2008 and afterwards). The scope focuses on for-sale property development companies, both low-rise (single detached, duplex, and townhouse) and high-rise (condominium). The survey will be with real estate developers who are the members of the three main real estate societies: namely, the Thai Real Estate Associations, the Thai Housing Business, and the Thai Condominium Association. The research analysis will compare surviving strategies of property development companies with different sizes (sale volume), product type (low-rise and high-rise, and different business experiences (duration in the business). The comparison between strategies used in the past and present economic recessions will also be conducted. The results from this research are expected to be beneficial not only directly to real estate developers, but also to academics and related governmental staffs.
Cole, Rebel, and Susanne Cannon. "Changes in REIT Liquidity." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Wei, Qian. "Choice of IPO Location and Long-Term Performance The Case of Chinese Real Estate Firms." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Silver, Lars, and Björn Berggren. "Commercial Real Estate and Business Angel Activity." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Business angels are far more important in promoting the growth of young knowledge-based entrepreneurial firms than any other private equity financiers (Mason and Harrison 2000; Aernoudt and Erikson 2002, Reynolds et al 2002). The encouragement of business angel investments is therefore a core issue for public policy. One of the key issues in business angel research is why individuals engage in business angel activities. Business angels are known to not only to focus on capital generation, as altruistic motives are important as is the general appreciation of aiding new entrepreneurs (Paul et al 2003). There is also a connection between business angel activity and the generation of local social capital. Business angel networks include successful entrepreneurs that engage in business angel networks for social capital purposes (Reitan and Sˆrheim 2000). These business angels often have a significant holding of local commercial real estate. This study is an in depth study of business angels and the role commercial real estate has on the willingness to become a business angel. The study adds to business angel research and real estate property research the perspective that for some business angel investors the business angel community enhances their possibilities to generate business for their commercial real estate properties. The study will use a combined business angel theory and social capital theory in order to conceptually investigate the connection between commercial real estate and business angel activity.
Buttler, Maike, and Christian Stoy. "Comparing the Benefit of International Assessment Methods." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Several assessment tools have appeared, for example, in the Central European Market, which aim to control as well as make public the sustainable quality of real estate. Properties meeting the requirements of such assessment tools are certified with a label. The certificate can then be applied in the marketing strategy of the real estate. However many potential clients such as investors, companies, and real estate managers remain unconvinced that investing in a certificate increases the value of their property. They are, for example, not sure at which phase of the life-cycle (planning, construction and usage), and which type of property would benefit (income, image and reduction of occupancy costs) from the certificates. Do certified properties meeting quality standards as defined by LEED, BREEAM and DGNB vary from each other and from conventional buildings, or does a certification simply bring extra costs to companies, meaning in the end just a new name for the same old quality? Comparing the benefit of International Assessment Methods
Pekdemir, Dilek. "Comparison of Rent Prediction Models: Case of Istanbul Office Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Hedonic office rent prediction models which are the most common method based on multiple regression are well established in the literature. A wide range of variables, categorised as econometric, architectural, spatial and tenure rights, are used in these models for various cities. In the light of previous studies, some difficulties can arise in gathering data and applying the hedonic theory. As the dependent variable, asking rent is preferred in some models while contract rent or effective rent are used in others. It is reported that the use of contract or effective rent instead of asking rent, can provide more accurate predictions. However, it is difficult to obtain sufficient contract data from real estate firms, due to confidentiality and competition. The major difficulty lies within the hedonic regression models is the multicollinearity problem that may exist between a large number of independent variables. The common solution may reduce number of variables by exclude some variables depending on significance level or using ìstepwiseî or ìbackwardî procedure in regression models. In this study, it is attempted to construct a rent prediction model for _stanbul office market. The rent prediction model is improved in two ways. First, some variables are eliminated by ìbackwardî procedure in standard regression model and a reduced model is constructed. Second, factor analysis is conducted to group related variables and then, factors are incorporated into the regression model. Besides, three different rental values; asking rent, gross and net contract rent are used as dependent variable in the prediction models. Finally, performance of prediction models are compared according to R-squared and t-statistics. Akaike Information Criteria and Schwarz Information Criteria are also employed to test the accuracy of proposed models.
de Wit, Erik R.. "Competing Risks in a Time-on-the-Market Analysis." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Sellers of owner occupied dwellings can decrease the expected time-till- sale of their dwelling by lowering the advertised listprice of the dwelling.This article investigates the e ect of listprice reductions on the transition rates of dwellings from the market through i) a sale, or ii) a withdrawal from the market. We use a timing-of-events model with competing risks (a sale or a withdrawal of the dwelling from the market). Our data con- sists of all dwellings put on the market between the start of 2005 and the end of 2007, o ered through brokers which are a member of the NVM (Dutch Real Estate Brokers Association). Our data covers approximately 75% of all owner occupied dwellings o ered for sale in the Netherlands during this period. We nd that a listprice reduction raises the transi- tion rate from market to sale by more than 260%, a listprice reduction raises the transition rate from market to withdrawal by more than 40%.
Ong, Seow Eng. "Contagion Effects of Subprime Crisis: A Singapore Perspective." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The U.S subprime market crisis started as a US-centric problem. However, the subprime crisis has gradually spilled over to the financial sector. Even traditionally stable investment banks like Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, have become casualties in the recent period of credit turmoil. International markets tend to react to news emanating from the US as investors price in expectations of how the crisis would affect their respective markets. While stock markets do react to information through contagion effects, it is not entirely clear how real estate stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs) would react. This study examines how Singapore stocks in general and real estate stocks in particular, reacted to news on the US subprime crisis since late 2007.
Tieva, Antti. "Contract Preparation as Part of Contract Management." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "This paper will study the concept of contract management. The focus is in contract law and especially in contract preparation. Corporate governance and risk management have been current themes also in Finnish business life in past years. The transparency of business and aims to create long-term partnerships have also appeared a lot in discussions but also in actions. At the same time there has been in many contexts reasoning about organizing, governing or managing corporate contracting. In those occasions there have been used terms like contract government, contract administration and contract management. This paper will discuss organizing comprehensively corporate contracting, in other words contract management. Contract management is outlined in the form of long-term business contract and the focus is in the contract preparation. Contract preparation is studied through proactive law, competitive bidding and contract negotiations. Collecting research questions are: What is contract management and what are the key elements of it in terms of contract law? The perspective arises mainly from the Finnish legal system and contract law. In addition there are some aspects of international contract law. Practical references, for example case law, come from real estate and construction business. One goal of this paper is to show what kinds of developments are going on in modern contract law. This is linked to the research approaches concerning contractual skills. When the amount of long-term business contracts increases the recognition and handling of contractual risks are emphasized. It also implies realization of fruitful co-operation of different professions when preparing contracts.""
Andersson, Linda. "Cooperation Between Public and Private Players in the Swedish Public Real Estate Sector: Motives and Contract Types." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In the 1990s, first projects emerged in Poland as first forms of PPPs. These involved municipal services and the construction/improvement of technical infrastructure facilities, and were mainly small investments implemented by local governments. At that time, the institution of public-private partnership did not formally exist within the legal system. In October 2005, the principles of public-private partnership in Poland finally became unambiguously defined. The new law settled the question of the nature and legality of PPP. However, the law was not used in practice, so its implementation may not be considered a success. On 6 of January 2009 President of Poland signed the new law about PPP. A new act promises a new direction in the use of public-private partnership by public and private entities. For many years, quasi-PPP initiatives have taken place, that is, projects that do not fall under public-private partnership according to the legislature, but from the point of view of their organization and objectives they are of such nature. Local governments are clearly interested in using this option, but a multitude of obstacles limits the implementation of projects in the form of broadly understood PPP. The existing state of infrastructure development and possibility of using EU aid funds should strongly encourage the use of PPP also in large-scale urban development and regeneration in cities. Authors investigated past and current obstacles existing by entering into PPP in urban development projects in Poland, non only of legal but also of socio-political nature. They aimed at presenting some solutions based on EU experience.
Appel-Meulenbroek, Rianne, Dave Havermans, and Anneke van Kempen. "Corporate Branding with the Help of Corporate Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Nowadays, many companies try to attract customers by bundling all marketing efforts under a common corporate brand to reflect the organizationís identity. The principle of corporate branding suggests that the corporate brand ought to be thoroughly embedded throughout the entire company in order to be successful. Therefore, also Corporate Real Estate (CRE) must be managed in accordance with it. This paper explores how CRE can add value to corporate branding and how corporate branding strategies for CRE can be determined. Literature study on possible links between CRE and the corporate brand suggests two possibilities: a direct influence of CRE on the perception of the corporate brand and an indirect link through the influence of CRE on employee behavior which influences the corporate brand. The direct influence has been explored further through field research on the importance of CRE aspects for corporate branding among 19 companies. They are split up into 4 different types of service providers: real estate brokers(6), architects(6), lawyers(3) and multinationals(4). Every company tries to form a unique corporate branding strategy, which requires a specific location and building. But the branding ëstoryí within the distinguished organization types does appear to be similar. Corporate identity and its 6 characteristics (structure, strategy, culture, communication, behavior and design) formed a useful tool to determine the proper branding strategy for an organization. Especially ëdesigní and ëcommunicationí define the way CRE should communicate the corporate brand. All interviewees confirmed a possible role for CRE in supporting the brand. The results do not provide a single list of CRE aspects for all companies. This depends too much on company characteristics. But the CRE aspects with the highest scores on possible influence were ëlocation accessí, ëlocation typologyí, ërecognition of the buildingí and ëmain entrance of the buildingí.
French, Nick. "Corporate Real Estate - An Investor View: Implications of the Change in User Preferences in the Economic Downturn on Investment Strategies." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The current world economic climate is uncertain. The credit crunch has led to occupiers rethinking their strategic requirements. And, at the same time, they are fire-fighting to keep their occupation costs at a level that will allow the companies to survive. In this market, more than any other, tenants are approaching landlords with the idea of renegotiating there rental liabilities. Landlords are considering each proposal on its merits and solutions are ranging from side agreements to not demand full payment, to surrender and renewals to provide a more even cash flow or outright surrenders with a reverse premium being paid. This paper looks at the UK market and the nature of agreements being made with a background of such uncertainty. The booming investment market of the last few years has shielded the profession from the need to consider fully the role of proactive management. This paper argues that good relationship management and a foresight to negotiate to protect future cash flows means that, now more than ever, management surveyors can enhance and protect capital values.""
Karamujic, Harry M.. "Cyclicality and Seasonality of Home Loan Interest Rates in Australia." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The paper seeks to establish whether or not Australian home loan interest rates exhibit the cyclical and seasonal variations and whether seasonality, if present, is stochastic or deterministic. To do so, the paper uses a structural time series modelling approach and product-level home loan interest rates data from one of the biggest banks in Australia, National Australia Bank (NAB). A study of the literature uncovered no empirical research conducted to prove or disprove the existence of cyclicality and seasonality in Australian home loan interest rates. The modelling results with respect to the expected cyclicality of home loan interest rates overall confirm the existence of cyclicality in home loan interest rates. With respect to home loan interest rate seasonality, although most of the variables analysed show the presence of statistically significant seasonal factors, the majority of the statistically significant seasonal factors observed cannot be attributed to any of the three considered seasonal effects.""
Busse, Daniela. "Decision Making and Sustainability. Does it Matter?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Sustainable aspects are of increasing importance concerning the chances in the market, the reliability of performance, and the duration of the life cycle of buildings. Aside from their impact on the condition of the environment, sustainability serves primarily occupiers and tenants. This is of strong influence on the economical success of an investment. The question arises, why planning, constructing and running of buildings still lack of strategies that take sustainable criteria into account. Do the actors need more information about how to deal with such goals? Is there a problem of knowledge or of acceptance? But the reason can be suspected elsewhere. The commonly uses methods in the decision making process are not able to properly picture the chances and risks of real estate developments considering sustainable aspects. This paper takes a close look at selected techniques that are frequently used during the initiating process of a development. These techniques are for instance: the net present value method, the cost-benefit analysis and the real estate analysis. Decision-making is a constant task for all the actors during the whole life cycle of a building. Therefore it is reasonable to assume that there are a lot of decisions being made that counteract with sustainable strategies only because people don't have access to adequate means. This research project deals with the requirements for developing relevant methods and the impact on the users.
Madritsch, Thomas. "Decision Support by Computer Aided Facility Management." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Computer Aided Facility Management (CAFM) means the support of Facility Management (FM) activities by modern information technology (IT) during the life cycle of real estate. The purpose of this paper is to describe the relevance of Computer Aided Facility Management (CAFM) as a new decision support technology in the field Real Estate Management. This provides new challenges and opportunities both to software developers and users in this field.The author illustrate the recent developments and market demands of (CA)FM decision makers. The main part will provide an overview of the basic concepts and detailed insight into the topic and how CAFM may serve as a Decision Support System (DSS) from an organizational perspective. This paper illustrates the cutting edge of CAFM and its relevance for Real Estate and Facility Management decision making. The paper provides a review of the state of the art and practical experiences of CAFM applications - presenting an analysis of current trends and technologies, and provides recommendations for a successful CAFM implementation based on a research study of successful CAFM projects in companies and public institutions. Modern CAFM software is going to develop from classical information systems into real decision support systems. First steps into this direction are shown in this paper. The paper closes with an overview of future developments, trends and research opportunities in CAFM as a decision support tool.
Yang, X.D, C.Y Yu, and K.C Lam. "Decision Support System for Real Estate Bubble Early Warning." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This research aims to build a decision support system for real estate bubble early warning in accordance with the forecasted bubble degree. Both theoretical review and empirical evidence will be conducted to determine the ultimate input variables for the forecasting model. It begins with the identification of the symptom indicators of real estate bubble. The quantitative and qualitative information will be analyzed in uncertain and imprecise environments. Then the principal component analysis (PCA) will be applied to categorize these key indicators. Based on the key variables, advanced mathematical methods like artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) will be deployed for mapping the complicated non-linear relationship between the bubble indicators and the bubble degree. Meanwhile, the forecasting ability of ANN and SVM will be compared, so as to determine a more desirable one for bubble forecasting. Market data from Hong Kong and Mainland China are employed for the empirical study. The ultimate aim is to build a real estate price bubble early warning system (EWS), and provide an objectives basis of planning, decision-making for the government and real estate management departments respectively.
de La Paz, Paloma Taltavull, and Federico Pablo. "Demand Pressure and Housing Market Expansion Under Supply Restrictions." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The paper analyse the expansion on Madrid housing market submit to a strong inmigration pressure. Economic growth and enlarged labour market attract population to one of the more expensive Spanish housing markets. The split of demand promote building in new areas under land restrictions and strong competition, jumping the frontiers of the county. The analysis estimate the role of residential changes using multivariante analysis with time and spatial varying parameters.
Fuerst, Franz, Patrick McAllister, and Claudia Murray. "Designer Office Buildings: An Evaluation of the Price Impacts of Signature Architects." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The quality of a building's architectural design can be transmitted to its price through a number of channels. There are complex interactions between the different dimensions of brand (of the architect and the building), design (aesthetic and functional) and value (exchange/owner, user/operator and neighbour/social). This paper addresses a specific aspect of this topic: whether office buildings designed by signature architects in the US achieve rental and price premiums compared to buildings designed by non-signature architects. Our aim is to test the ability of signature architects to add value to office buildings. We focus on markers of excellence in architectural design by using data on two of the most prestigious prizes, the Pritzker Prize and the Gold Medal awarded by the American Institute of Architects. We then create a sample of commercial office buildings designed by winners of these prestigious prizes drawing on CoStar's comprehensive national database. Hedonic regression and a logit model are applied to estimate the various price determinants. While the first approach measures the typical price differential over the typical building in a particular market over a specific timeframe, the second identifies a potential price differential over a set of buildings closely matched on important characteristics (such as age, size, location etc).
Petrova, Milena, and Andrew Spieler. "Determinants and Dynamics of Dividend Payouts by US REITs." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. We examine dividend payout behavior of US Real Estate Investment Trusts over time. Our sample contains 6157 REIT dividend announcement observations over the period of 1990-2006. We find that US REIT dividend payout ratio has increased over time, as has increased REIT dividend yield. Also, consistent with the literature, while dividend to net income ratio appears to be quite volatile, dividend to operating income after depreciation appears remarkably stable, which show that US REITs do not form their dividend payout decisions based on net income. We further investigate abnormal returns associated with REIT and non-REIT firm announcements for distribution of regular and irregular dividends. We find that abnormal announcement returns for regular dividends, although positive are close to zero, both for REITs and non-REITs. When irregular dividends are announced abnormal returns in the case of REITs are only about 1%, but are much higher (6%) for the non-REIT firms. Finally, we examine the relationship of REIT characteristics and announcement returns, in the case of regular and irregular dividend announcements. We find that as expected OIAD is positively related, while leverage is negatively related to returns in both type of announcements. However, capital expenditures, long term debt issue, depreciation and EPS are related differently to announcement returns, whether we deal with regular or irregular dividends.
Pêchorzewski, Dariusz. "Determinants of Demand in the Polish Real Property Market in the Years 1995-2008." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In times of growing insecurity in world economy, it is vital to search for regularity and stability. Attempts to find reliable aspects, or at least elements which are acceptably dependable in the ever less and less foreseeable reality, offer the chance to take more correct economic decisions. The paper will present research findings from a study of the relationships between the standing of the Polish economy (measured by the dynamics of GDP, unemployment rate, levels of the main indices on the Warsaw stock exchange, and interest rates), demand in the real property market, and real property prices. Conclusions will be drawn as to which of the factors analyzed is most closely related with the real property market. Relationships between the measures presented will be studied taking into consideration economic cycles in the real property market. The research period of 1995-2008 will be divided into phases of increasing and decreasing real property prices, in order to analyze regularities or lacks thereof in the relationships between the studied quantities. The research will elucidate whether economic cycles alter regularities in the Polish economy. The fourteen-years-long research period includes two phases of price increases and two phases of decreases. Moreover, the time lag between the variables studied will be considered. This will enable identification of how fast the real property market reacts to changes in the entire economy. The phases of increases and decreases towards the end of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century in Poland were determined by different factors. Recent decreases related to the worldwide economic crisis are largely unprecedented. The proposed research will clarify whether the real property market in Poland withstands abrupt changes, or whether the previously observed regularities have vanished.
Schulte, Kai-Magnus. "Determinants of Risk-Adjusted REIT Performance - Evidence from US Equity REITs." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Drawing from both general finance and real estate literature of asset pricing, the purpose of the current investigation is to examine the firm-specific and macroeconomic determinants of risk-adjusted REIT performance. The paper moreover attempts to evaluate their magnitude and significance both over time and property sectors and therefore provides for a deeper understanding of the pricing of equity REITs. The two chosen performance metrics, the Sharpe and Sortino Ratio, make the results especially appealing to retail investors who do not hold a diversified portfolio, as both ratios do not depend on the validity of the CAPM. In that context, the widely shown inability of the CAPM to explain the cross-section of both stock and REIT returns does not only make both ratios, but also the approach of including firm-specific and macroeconomic, time-varying variables more appropriate. The sample of 275 US equity REITs over the period from 1993 to 2008 is analysed concerning the importance of six firm-specific (size, book-to-market value, leverage, dividend yield, FFO payout ratio and property focus) and three macroeconomic (interest rate changes, stock market return and market phase dummy) variables in explaining the risk-adjusted performance over a one-year holding period. The empirical analysis reveals that all three macroeconomic and five firm-specific factors, namely the size, bookto- market value, leverage, dividend yield and FFO payout ratio, play ñ on average ñ a significant part in explaining the risk-adjusted returns of US equity REITs. However, it is also shown that their significance and magnitude varies both over market phases and REIT sectors, as some factors become insignificant, more significant or reverse their impact. In conclusion, the paper adds to the existing literature not only by examining the drivers of both total risk and downside risk-adjusted returns, but also by highlighting that while the overall, average effect of these variables, that has been found in precedent research, can be reaffirmed, it largely stems from distinct time periods and property sectors. This has important implications for investors, as they need to consider both the current market phase and the property sector they want to invest in before determining on which variable they want to base their investment decision.
Thanos, Sotirios, and Michael White. "Determinants of the House Bidding Process: Approximating Consumersí Surplus." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In housing transactions, the selling price is often different from the asking price, being either higher or lower. In setting an asking price, sellers may be motivated by their personal as well as economic circumstances. Thus if they sell because of a job related move they may wish to sell quickly and therefore set a lower asking price to attract interest in the property. Alternatively if they are prepared to wait on the assumption that they will receive a higher offer, they may set a higher asking price to deter lower offers. However, the process of buying and selling itself may have an impact on bids offered. For example if sealed bids are used and there is no information on bids made by competing purchasers, individual purchasers may offer relatively high bids if they want to be certain they will secure a property.. Assuming that the asking price in this case is a proxy of the market clearing price, the difference between the winning bid and the asking price will approximate the maximum consumer surplus (CS) over the market price for the specific house (i.e. the CS for the highest bidder if the selling price was equal to the asking price). This difference between highest bid and the asking price, which can be viewed as either profit (for the seller) or CS, is the main focus of our analysis. This paper examines approximately 75,000 transactions in the city of Aberdeen, Scotland, to determine bidding behaviour. Specifically it examines factors affecting bids above and below the asking price using information provided on both asking and selling prices and property characteristics. It also examines the case where asking and selling prices are equal and identifies the influence of different factors in the bidding process.
de Vries, Paul, and Robbert Faber. "Determinants of the House Price in Romania - How to Measure Houses Prices in a New EU State." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper examines the construction of real estate databases and the valuation of properties in Buz_u, Romania. One of the criteria for candidate states for EU mem-bership is a good working monitoring system for the land and real estate markets. The objective of this paper is the twofold. First, the development of a set of data-bases, procedures and guidelines that enables a valuation process on the Romanian real estate market and secondly, using those databases, to gain insight into the real market value of recently sold properties. We rely on observations from estate agents and banks starting in May 2007. Using hedonic regression, with house and location characteristics, we predict the house prices.
Pozimski, Jens. "Determinates of the Residence Time of Tenants in Housing Real Estate in Germany." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Musa, Zairul N.. "Determining the Dynamic Approach of FM Service Delivery in the UK Shopping Centres." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Wiegand, Dietmar. "Development of Managed Real Estate - International Case Studies on Principals and Success Factors." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The congress contribution focuses on the Development of Managed Real Estate. An interdisciplinary team of the chair for Real Estate Development at Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien) accomplished in 2007 and 2008 40 international case studies mainly to answer the following research questions: - Which are the main principles of development projects for Managed Real Estate?; - Which processes, organisational structures and capabilities of the acting organisations lead to successful developments?; - Which are other success factors and critical factors for the development of Managed Real Estate?; - Do the developments need certain preconditions concerning e.g. the site, the purchasing power of the citizen or do they even have the potential to revitalize unprivileged cities and quarters? // The explorative studies of cases between Berlin and Barcelona were carried out using structured narrative interviews with the main actors in the developments as a method completed by collection of data from different various sources. The about 40 case studies have shown, that development of Managed Real Estate in a tailor made form is possible even in unprivileged cities, quarters and regions and is there potentially generating positive external effects on income and employment. Knowhow and innovation power concerning the business the Real Estate is built for is crucial and rare. Successful processes in the development phase are cyclic process of optimization, followed by step by step process in the realisation phase. Architecture in some cases is essential and in other cased nearly of no importance. The engagement of the public sector helps but doesn¥t necessarily produce successful projects. The cases studies finally lead to the model of ìFacilities Developmentî, enabling a new perspective on the Development of Managed Real Estate, applicable with its principles also on the domain public Real Estate Development.""
Siniak, Nikolai, Uladzimir Valetka, and Leonid Rusiyanov. "Development of Model and Intelligent Tutoring System for Integrated Construction and Real Estate Crisis Management in the Transition Economy Countries." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "In any region, including the Lithuania and Belarus, sustainable development demands creation of a single international strategy for use of innovative assets; the strategy should include management of construction and real estate. Attractiveness and competitiveness of the counties depends on the development of the construction and real estate sectors significantly; thus search for solutions in the face of crisis in these sectors is very important. The paper is devoted to analysis of the experience of developed foreign countries in overcoming of the construction and real estate crisis and will determine the main criteria defining the development trends in the construction and real estate sectors. Expert methods and systems of criteria were used to compare the actions (attempts to overcome the crisis) of governments and business entities of developed countries with actions of the transition countries. This paper attempts to identify some attempts to overcome crises in both countries: the Action Plan to Overcome the Construction and Real Estate Crisis, the Intelligent Teaching System. The latter is very important in face that research and development expenditure in the European construction sector does not reflect its economic importance. Investment in R&D is limited to 0.3 per cent of the sectorís turnover which is quite low in comparison, for example, to Japan (2ñ3 per cent). This might account for the relatively low productivity gains in this sector in the future. As a part of the Intelligent Teaching System we need to establish a journal where papers analysing economic issues in construction, real estate and housing will be submitted. Published building and construction journals are in fact engineering-oriented. In developing Action Plan we submit the most important (in its native countryís opinion) factors influencing the crisis and will suggest the ways to mitigate or liquidate the consequences. In order to make a model for integrated construction and real estate crisis management, the most efficient alternatives facilitating improvement of competitiveness of construction and real estate sectors in Lithuania and Belarus was selected. The analysis included methods of multi-criteria analysis and expert methods. The important result includes creation and implementation of decision support systems which will help to mitigate the effect of the crisis on the real estate sector. It will be possible to use the model for integrated construction and real estate crisis management developed in modelling of construction and real estate crisis management for EU countries where the construction industry is a major constituent of economies. The gross output of the sector in the European Union represented more than 10 per cent of GDP. The sector also accounts for one half of gross capital formation.""
Petrova, Milena, and David Ling. "Differences in Acquirer Motivations, Announcement Effects, Target Characteristics, and Financing in Private versus Public Acquisitions: The Case of REITs." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper first identifies the characteristics of publicly-traded REITs associated with an increased probability of being the target of an announced merger or acquisition. Second, conditional on being a target, we examine whether certain target characteristics influence the probability of a bidder being a private versus a public firm. Third, we examine whether the wealth effects that accrue to the shareholders of target REITs in going private deals and public-to-public transactions vary with the characteristics of the target and acquirer firms. Finally, we investigate the extent to which going private transactions differ from ìstaying publicî acquisitions in terms of the type of financing employed and the motivation of the two investor types. We find that REITs more likely to become acquisition targets are smaller, with no umbrella operating partnership, less liquidity, higher dividend yields and greater institutional ownership than non-targets. We also document that targets of private acquirers have lower leverage, interest coverage ratios, and profitability. Although acquisitions by private buyers are always done with cash, there has been a shift toward the use of cash in public-to-public deals. In addition, the factors related to abnormal returns differ in public-to-public and public-to-private deals.
Nasir, Asmah Mohd. "Diversification Effects of Indirect Real Estate In A Mixed Asset Portfolio - The Malaysia Experience." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The high percentage of world investable wealth held in property coupled with price volatility and poor returns in the equity trading market have make investors turn to property for higher return. With the introduction of Modern Portfolio Theory, portfolio investments have become the norm whereby investors seek to achieve higher portfolio returns at a given risk level or lowest risk at a given level of return. The intent of this study is to present the benefits of including indirect real estate in a mixed asset portfolio of stocks, bonds and cash using the Malaysian data. Indirect real estate is proxy by REITs and property share. Different return interval (monthly, quarterly, semiannually and annually) for two study period (12/1995-12/2007- whole study period; 12/1998-12/2007- post crisis period) are used to analyze the benefits of including these two indirect real estate in a portfolio. First, by applying the optimal portfolio without the indirect real estate, and then, with the inclusion of indirect real estate for both the study periods. Low correlation between assets class is one factor which determines the attractiveness of an asset for inclusion in a mixed asset portfolio. The mean-variance criterion shall be applied in which investors are assumed to try to achieve highest return of the portfolio based on average returns and standard deviations as measure of risk. Optimal portfolio returns is computed based on equal investments of asset class, highest portfolio returns, lowest portfolio returns and highest Sharpe ratio. Although earlier international and local studies suggested that REITs provide a good diversification benefits in a portfolio, the findings showed that Malaysian REITs is still far from being attractive compared to stocks, bonds and cash. Property share as expected have very high correlation and underperformed stock and are more volatile making it a less attractive investment option. The conclusion drawn is that indirect real estate in Malaysia does not provide diversification benefits. REITs may be considered for inclusion during good economic period, but not otherwise. Historical data computed for analysis should not be in the longer period as it erodes the effectiveness of the computation. A shorter period of analysis allows changing investment environment to be taken into consideration.""
Schlump, Patrick. "Diversified Investment in Listed Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Zemcik, Petr, and Vyacheslav Mikhed. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "We investigate whether recently high and consequently rapidly decreasing U.S. house prices have been justiØed by fundamental factors such as personal income, population, house rent, stock market wealth, building costs, and mortgage rate. We Ørst conduct the standard unit root and cointegration tests with aggregate data. Nationwide analysis potentially suÆers from problems of the low power of stationarity tests and the ignorance of dependence among regional house markets. Therefore, we also employ panel data stationarity tests which are robust to cross-sectional dependence. Contrary to previous panel studies of the U.S. housing market, we consider several, not just one, fundamental factors. Our results conØrm that panel data unit root tests have greater power as compared with univariate tests. However, the overall conclusions are the same for both methodologies. The house price does not align with the fundamentals in sub-samples prior to 1996 and from 1997 to 2006. It appears that the real estate prices take long swings from their fundamental value and it can take decades before they revert to it. The most recent correction (a collapsed bubble) occurred around 2006.""
Yau, Yung. "Does Comprehensive Redevelopment Change the Housing Price Gradient? A Case Study in Mongkok, Hong Kong." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Urban decay is an inevitable result of the growth of every city, and Hong Kong is not an exception. Many buildings were found to be in dilapidation, and there is an urgency to tackle urban decay in the city. Redeveloping dilapidated buildings has long been regarded as an effective solution to this urban problem. Yet, as suggested in the literature, redevelopment may be liable for gentrifying the neighbourhood because it pushes upon the property prices and rentals in the vicinity of redeveloped sites. However, empirical studies on how comprehensive redevelopment affects housing values in the neighourhood are not common. In this light, this research investigates the impacts of Argyle Street/Shanghai Street Redevelopment Project undertaken by the Urban Renewal Authority on the sale prices of housing nearby. A panel data is employed and the change in the spatial price gradient before and after the redevelopment project is explored. The analysis results suggest that proximity to the project site had a significant positive impact with housing prices before the project. Yet, no change in the spatial-price gradient is spotted after the completion of the project. These results confirm that housing prices do not response to the change in the environmental quality brought about by the comprehensive redevelopment.
Abdulai, Raymond T.,. "Does Land Registration Guarantee Access to Formal Capital for Investment?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The proposition that it is land registration, which determines accessibility to formal credit for investment is common knowledge. Such a proposition is premised on the argument that land registration enables owners of registered landed property to use their property as collateral for loans from financial institutions. A sequel to these arguments are the assertions that: (a) western nations are highly capitalised and developed due to the fact that they have comprehensive land registration systems; and (b) high level of poverty and underdevelopment exits in third world countries because it is an infinitesimal proportion of landed property ownership that is registered, which it is argued, impedes the ability of owners to use their property as collateral to access formal capital for investment and wealth creation. Based on the preceding commonly held views, developing countries, backed by international donor institutions like the World Bank, have been religiously pursuing land registration policies and programmes over the years. However, despite many years of the implementation of land registration programmes, poverty and underdevelopment still exists in pandemic proportions in the third world. Considering Africa, for example, research conducted by the World Bank in 2007 shows that the region is a critical development priority since it has some of the world's poorest countries and during the past two decades, the number of poor people in the continent has doubled to 300 million, which is more than 40 percent of the continent's population. It is against this background that this paper examines the extent to which land registration guarantees access to investment capital. It seeks to report the findings of a pilot research project, which is surveying five financial institutions ñ three in Ghana, a developing country and two in Britain, a developed country. The survey is currently in progress and will be completed in due course.""
Marmolejo Duarte, Carlos, and Carlos Adrián González. "Does Noise Stationarity Matters on Spatial Formation of Real Estate Values? A GWR Analysis for Barcelona's Residential Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The noise has become a major environmental cost that contemporary societies pay for living in densely urbanized areas. The impact of this externality on quality of life is reflected in a decrease of householdís welfare level, and subsequently, in a reduction in property values. Using hedonic pricing (HP) a considerable number of studies have assessed the impact of noise on property markets, but few of them have considered the existence of submarkets. Theoretically it would be expectable that marginal value of 1 dB varies according to neighbourhoodís noise exposure, features of dwellings (e.g.: insulation level) and the annoyance experienced by its residents. In this paper, using GWR, which resolves spatial dependencies (i.e. spatial autocorrelation) at the same time that considers """"soft borders"""" among submarkets, it is studied the impact of noise on the value of a sample of multifamily dwellings at Barcelona. Analysis suggests that the level of noise does matters, although the NDSI found (0.08%) is in the bottom decile of HP studies reviewed by Navrud (2002). What is relevant is that the NDSI is not stationary throughout the city, suggesting that each dB have different impacts that seems to depend not only on the intensity to which dwellings are exposed, but also on the nature of noise source. Moreover, unlike other studies, in Barcelona WTP for a dB of ìpeace and quietnessî, coming from a contingent valuation study, is higher than the implicit price of noise arising from the research reported here."
Rottke, Nico, and Roland Füss. "Does the Top Executive Influence the Performance of US Real Estate Investment Trusts?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In this paper, we analyze the potential influence of top executives on the performance of US real estate investment trusts by using a dataset of 101 listed US REITs for the period 2003 through 2007. In doing so, a broad range of company variables such as balance sheet data as well as personal CEO information such as fixed and variable income, individual education level, tenure, stake in the company, etc. are applied within a panel regression setting. On the one hand, the theoretical framework is derived from organizational theory, which includes the contrasting view between the deterministic and the voluntaristic approach of human capital theory. On the other hand, based on agency theory, the differing mechanisms of corporate governance in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are compared to regular listed corporations. Thereby, we build upon the findings of Feng, Ghosh and Sirmans (2005), Ooi (2000), Ghosh and Sirmans (2003) as well as Friday, Sirmans and Conover (1999). The empirical results suggest that the personal characteristics of CEOs play a significant role with regard to the performance of the individual company measured by return on asset (ROA). Thus, conclusions can be drawn with regard to CEO incentive systems, CEO change as well as CEO search.
Marcato, Gianluca, and Giovanni Alberto Tira. "Driving Factors in Pricing European CMBS: Bond, Mortgage and Real Estate Characteristics." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The current credit crunch has revealed that the property fundamentals should account for the prices of at least lower ranked tranches. Therefore, we intend to identify the driving factors of the initial spread of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) in European markets. Previous studies have identified different models to approach the problem of the pricing of a CMBS (i.e. panel data approach, linear regression models and kernel density models). However, the majority of works focus on the US market, revealing the need to extend this analysis to other regions such as the European one, which, by volume, has now almost reached the size of the US market. More specifically this research intends to study the significance of bond, mortgage and property-related variables in the pricing of European commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), along with macro-economic and financial factors used as control variables. Particularly we define some variables to describe the underlying property portfolio and the behavior of the real estate market to test their significance in explaining CMBS spreads. Multiple linear regression analysis using a databank of A Tranches issued between 1997 and 2007 indicates a strong relationship with bond-related factors, followed by real estate and mortgage market conditions. As floater coupon tranches tend to be riskier and exhibit higher spreads, we also estimate a model using this sub-set of data only and results hold reinforcing our findings.""
Anim-Odame, Wilfred, Tony Key, and Simon Stevenson. "Dynamics of Residential Market in Ghana: A Comparison." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The paper will first describe the construction of indices of prices, rentals, yields and total returns for residential investments in Ghana. The performance measures run from 1992 to 2007 and are the first indicators of real estate investment performance in Ghana. They result from hedonic modelling of 3,000 property transactions taken from the records of the Ghana Land Valuation Board. Second, the estimates of residential investment return will be compared with the returns achieved by investors in Ghanaian equities and fixed-income investments, to demonstrate the investment characteristics of real estate against competing asset classes. This research is an original and unique contribution to the understanding of real estate investment in Ghana, and also to the consideration of emergent formal real estate markets in developing African economies.
Ingaramo, Luisa, Stefania Sabatino, and Luca D’Acci. "Emerging Trends in the Italian Housing Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The Subprime mortgage crisis has been contracting the liquid assets capacity in many countries, causing an economic-financial recession with problems that differ depending on the market sectors and geographic areas. As a consequence, the typical risk inclination of the investorsí profile, which was the rule in the recent years, has been progressively reducing. It follows that today, in order to satisfy the greatly increased demand for even more updated and reliable information, a more frequent strategic monitoring of the local real estate market trends should be carried out. The study proposes a time ñ series analysis of the Italian housing market from 1967 to 2008, a year in which the Italian real estate market faced a conjunctural and cyclic slow down within the deeper current structural crisis in the international economy. In particular, apart from the main cities usually monitored by the most important half ñ yearly Official Reports, this study examines less important cities as well, dividing emerging trends, at the same time into ìurban rankî, ìgeographical locationî and ìinner district areaî. In particular the result of the analyses shows that, while the major Northern city centres tend to be losing attraction, performances are increasing in some Southern urban centres, probably due to belated start up in redevelopment policies (See: Sicily, Calabria and Apulia regions). This paper aims to find out, if there are particular locations (central, mid-central or outlying urban areas) in the Italian housing market, in which it is still possible to make an appropriate investment in real estate, contrary to the general national situation.
Weiland, Sonja, and Andreas Pfnür. "Empirical Study of the Benefits of PPP Projects on School Operation: The Case of the Offenbach District Schools." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Kok, Nils. "Energy Labeling in the Residential Sector." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper is the first to empirically investigate the diffusion of energy labels in the European Union. We address the drivers of the adoption of energy performance certificates and the consequent wealth effects on the housing market. To this end, we use the Netherlands as a laboratory, with a sample of more than 100,000 transacted dwellings in 2008, of which a mere 20,000 had an energy performance certificate. The results show that the choice of certification is driven to a large extent by the quality of a dwelling. Older dwellings in a more competitive segment and less attractive region are significantly more likely to have an energy performance certificate. However, within the sample of certified buildings, we find a positive relation between the energy efficiency of a dwelling and its transaction price, corrected for locational and quality characteristics. The results and implications of this paper can be used by governments in other Member States and countries outside the European Union to increase the effectiveness of policies regarding energy efficiency measures and energy performance certification.
Tu, Charles, Margot Weinstien, Lauren Lukens, and Elaine Worzala. "Essential Elements for a Highly Successful Graduate Real Estate Program." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Graduate programs with concentrations in real estate continue to examine the best ways to educate students in a dynamic marketplace. In an effort to uncover the views and opinions of the various stakeholders in a higher education degree program, this paper summarizes the results and major findings from a survey of almost 1000 individuals. Results show that there are many similarities but that there are key differences that should be considered between the alternative stakeholders. These findings are important to the faculty/administrators and board members of both current graduate real estate programs and prospective programs that are currently in the planning stage to help guide program directors as they revise their current offerings or establish new programs. In addition, the attitudes and perceptions of the stakeholders will aid prospective students as they sort through the different programs to find those that appear to value the opinions of the real estate professionals in the industry (represented by the alumni and board members). Finally, the results provide some insight into the often cited disconnect between the ìtown and the gown,î and opens the dialogue for all involved to work together and collaborate so that we can improve the understanding of this complicated and complex asset called real estate.
Macfarlane, John. "Estimating Real Estate Cycle Turning Points." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In the midst of the current economic crisis, it is likely that there will be a further consideration of the linkages between different parts of the business/financial system including a strong focus on real estate, arising from the role of the US prime lending fiasco in the current turmoil. The research area of cycles ñ both business and more specific real estate cycles ñ is likely to become more popular again. While real estate cannot be separated from the broader economy and there is a moderate literature looking at the relationship between real estate cycles and business cycles, this paper will focus on questions relating, in the main, to Real Estate Cycles. What are the dynamics of the real estate cycle? Is there a relationship between the real estate cycles for the same property class in different locations? Is there a relationship between the real estate cycles for different property classes in the same location? Can this information be used to estimate the (future) timing of turning points in property markets? These questions will be considered using data from the Property Directions Survey which has been conducted semi-annually in Australia over the last 10 years covering all major locations and for all classes of property. Data from other locations will also be considered.
Pryce, Gwilym, and Yu Chen. "Estimating the Impact of Floods on House Prices: An Application to the 2005 Carlisle Flood." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. It is estimated that two million properties and five million people are located in areas at flood risk in England and Wales, with nearly 100,000 homes and businesses at risk of flooding in Scotland. These numbers are anticipated to rise significantly as a result of climate change which the IPCC and UKCIP estimate will cause increased winter precipitation, rising sea levels, and greater frequency and prevalence of storm surges and extreme weather events. This paper explores how the housing market responds to such intensifying flood risk. In particular, we model the impact of flooding on house prices. This is an important effect to consider because the maintenance of property values matters for both individual home owners and community as a whole. House prices are also a gauge of human wellbeing (holding constant property attributes). Whilst the existing literature focuses on empirical studies of the effects of flooding on house prices, primarily drawing on data from the USA, there is a dearth of research grounded in sound economic theory and robust econometrics, particularly in the UK context. This paper seeks to address some of these shortcomings using UK data.
Kallakmaa-Kapsta, Angelika, and Ene Kolbre. "Estonian Real Estate Market - The Day After Housing Boom." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The global economic and financial crisis has had a considerable impact on the Estonian economy and especially on the overheated real estate market. The current slowdown is also shaped by domestic demand. After too rapid economic growth until 2006 the cooling down from 2008 was faster then predicted. During the last year the situation in the real estate market has changed: household debt has risen quickly, housing market demand has decreased, housing purchasers have started to pay more attention to the quality and location of real estate and take time to decide upon the purchase. Access to bank financing is more selective: credit terms and conditions for households and residential property development firms are tighter. Firstly, the article analyses the current situation in the housing market in Estonia and the factors what are influenced the demand and supply side in the housing market. Secondly, risks considering the credit institutions loan activity to the real estate sector, especially to the housing loans. Thirdly, the problems with household debts and the financial situation of those households which have over exposed themselves with loans and mortgages.
Backemar, Lars. "Evaluating Shopping Centers from an Investor Perspective." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In today's market it's crucial for a real estate owner to understand the strengths and weaknesses of their shopping centre to maximize their revenue. Newsec's product, the 'Shopping centre diagnosis' (Kˆpcentrumdiagnosen), helps diagnose a shopping centre based on a review and analysis of market conditions, competition, brand issues, status and development possibilities. Behind the product lies our collected knowledge and competence on everything ranging from marketing, concept development and customer behaviour to valuation, investment advice and asset management. The report helps identify possible difficulties and opportunities and also gives the client a tool box for further enhancement of their business.
Francke, Marc, Suncica Vujic, and Gerjan Vos. "Evaluation of the House Price Models Using an ECM Approach: The Case of the Netherlands." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. investigated by using different types of Error Correction Models and by examining the impact of different variables that can explain house price changes in the Netherlands. In the Netherlands the current financial crisis did not start with problems in the residential property market, but the housing market has been affected by the global financial and economical crisis. Therefore we need a long term model approach that relates house prices to fundamentals. However the model should also be able to detect bubbles in the short run. As a first step, we look at affordability ratios, such as debt to income or price to income ratios, in order to check how well the housing market works in the short run. In the medium run (two to five years), we estimate an error correction model relating prices to fundamentals (interest rates, labour income, financial assets of households, household stock, etc.). The error correction model tests whether prices tend to revert to some equilibrium price level or the ratio of price to income. The supply of new homes in the Netherlands is strongly regulated. Therefore, from the supply side we investigate a model which takes into account how supply conditions affect both the equilibrium price and the time path of adjustment to equilibrium. Finally, we try to forecast housing prices based on a few simple economic scenarioís.
Fesselmeyer, Eric, Kien Le, and Kiat-Ying Seah. "Examining the Changes in the Black-White Housing Gap Distribution." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper analyzes the black-white racial gap in US house values in 1998 and 2004 when US house prices experienced considerable appreciation. Un- like previous studies which estimated the racial gap at the mean values, we estimate the entire distribution of the racial di erences in housing wealth. Speci cally, we estimate quantile hedonic regressions for white and black homeowners and then use the Machado and Mata (2005) method to con- struct a counterfactual density of the house values that would have prevailed if houses occupied by whites had the same characteristics as those owned by blacks. This counterfactual density allows us to decompose the racial gap across the whole distribution of house values into a characteristics gap - the part of the gap explained by racial di erences in housing characteristics - and the returns gap - the part of the gap explained by racial di erences in returns to these housing characteristics. Using data from the American Housing Survey, we nd that the racial gap decreased signi cantly at the lower percentiles. In other words, lower-income blacks gained signi cantly relative to lower-income whites from 1998 to 2004. Moreover, the gains can be attributed to a decrease in the returns gap, indicating that either lower- income neighborhoods have become less segregated or that ltering has taken place more e ectively at the lower-income segment of the market. Against this nding, we explore the empirical connection between segregation and ltering and critique the e ectiveness of potential policies and their implica- tions on the distribution of housing wealth.
Branigan, Clare. "Exploring Decision Making Biases in Bubble Markets." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "This study investigates whether decision-makers are subject to behavioural biases when buying second-hand residential property. The research was conducted during 2005 when the Irish market was experiencing a property boom and demand for second-hand residential houses was higher than supply (i.e., prices were increasing by an average of 15% per year.) When buying a house by private treaty or auction, there were many competing bids, leading to difficulties closing a deal. In many cases, a bidder paid substantially more than the asking price, i.e., the market was experiencing a shortage illusion. We find evidence of the ìWinnerís Curseî at Dublin Property Auctions. We conclude that these results are due to three key issues. In the first instance, there was a shortage illusion operative in the market which fuelled demand further, and as a result there was a strong upward movement in market. Secondly, because of the competitive nature of auctions, speculative behaviour was further encouraged in the auction room, and finally there was limited information available on comparable sales, which lead to further uncertainty on the propertyís value, causing certain bidders to overestimate the value. (Winnerís Curse: when someone gets caught up in the frenzy of an auction, bids too high, & pays more than the item is worth). We also found that low property guide prices result in higher sales prices than for similar houses which had higher guides. We expected that the guide prices should be positively correlated to the sales results, i.e., high guide prices should infer higher valuations, and result in better prices. We attribute our findings to the three main issues. First, low guide prices encourage interest in the property because bidders assume that they are getting a good deal. This increases the number of bidders at the auction, leading to more competitive bidding. Second, for property auctions, bidders have invested time and money in sunk costs (e.g., search costs, property surveys, legal checks) which consequently escalates their commitment to win the auction. Third, the competitive pressures in an auction room escalate their commitment to win further, and higher prices occur. We also compared the behaviour of men vs. women bidders. Women were observed to be as likely as men to bid higher above the guide price. This disagrees with the view in Finance Literature, which states that men exhibit overconfidence more than women. The final auction study showed that Property Developers participating at auctions for investment purposes contributed to price rises. Literature from the field of Behavioural Finance suggests that the property market displayed the classic features of a speculative bubble: a situation in which temporarily high prices are sustained largely by investorsí enthusiasm rather than consistent estimation of real value. This is in contradiction with the Auction Literature which argues that a bidderís judgement improves with continued experience. The more experienced bidder should consequently be less affected by the Winnerís Curse.""
Gluszak, Michal. "Facing the Crisis: Housing Choices and Housing Demand in Poland." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Bach, Hansjorg. "Factors at Work in Rental Decisions and Tenant Satisfaction." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In this paper the results of a study conducted in cooperation with SEB Asset Management, EuPD Research Bonn Germany and carried out in Spring 2008 will be presented: The Office Tenantís Almanac 2008 ñ Factors at Work in Rental Decisions and Tenant Satisfaction. The study focuses on office tenants in Germanyís 20 largest cities based on population figures. This means that all cities with populations in excess of 300,000 are covered by the survey. In order to guarantee a sufficiently low confidence interval, which enables the extrapolation of observations about the individual locations, 150 interviews per city were incorporated into the analysis. The decision factors of the potential tenant as a customer for renting office space were analysed. The Office Tenantís Almanach 2008 quantifies the factors that influence rental decisions and tenant satisfaction and identifies specific potential for improvement. The outcome was rather astonishing. It delivers valuable indications and recommendations for developers, architects and landlords in order to develop, design or let office buildings successfully.
Bazyl, Monika. "Factors Influencing Tenure Choice in European Countries." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Homeownership rates are very different across European countries. They range from below 50% in Germany to over 80% in Greece, Spain or Ireland. However the differences lie not only in the overall homeownership rates but also in its structure, and this is the focus of this paper. Its aim is to study the impact of microeconomic factors on householdís tenure choice, using a cross-country comparative approach. Logit models are constructed for each country using data for year 2000 from the Consortium of Household Panels for European Socio-Economic Research micro-database. The models show that marriage is a significant determinant of the decision to move to homeownership in all analysed countries, while co- habitating households are more likely to rent, except for Denmark. Nationality, income and age proved to be significant explanatory variables in several countries, while staying insignificant in others.""
Sanchez-Robles, Blanca, and Jorge Guada. "Financial Crisis and Real Estate Activity: The Spanish Evidence." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Considerable debate has arisen recently about the behaviour of the banks during the present financial crisis. In particular, some argue that banks have not changed their lending policies substantially in the last few months. This discussion has been especially vivid in the US, and among several experts of the Federal Reserve System. In this paper we examine this issue for the Spanish economy and the real estate industry, where banks happen to be the main providers of funding. Our intuition, based on casual observation, is that banks have reduced substantially the amount of funds they provide for housing purchases of households and to firms involved in real estate activity. In addition, our impression is that they have increased the risk premium they charge and requested more guarantees from debtors. We want to analyse whether these beliefs are confirmed by the data; moreover, we intend to discuss in the paper what the pattern of banking lending to developers and potential house purchasers has been in the last few years, regarding * Quantity of funds made available to the firms and consumers; * Rate of interest; * Type of credits (short term, long term, assets guaranteed loans) // Furthermore, we want to inquire which kind of effects have been brought about by this patterns, and more in particular, if we find evidence supporting the credit constraint hypothesis, whether bank lending constraints have exacerbated the ongoing real estate crisis.
Tsolacos, Sotiris, and Keith Anderson. "Forecast the Collapse of Speculative Bubbles for European Securitized Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Securitized real estate prices have historically shown tendencies to rise substantially and then fall quickly, which is the case with the prices of many other traded assets. These episodes of price rallies and crashes may constitute the presence of positive or negative speculative bubbles in the securitized real estate market. This has implications for real estate research: are these bubbles the result of irrational behaviour, are they predictable, how can investors formulate strategy? The present study focuses on bubbles in securitized real estate defined as the deviations of actual prices from fundamentals. It has two objectives: The first objective is to identify bubbles in the securitized market. The detection of stock bubbles has been the main focus of the relevant literature. Second the paper is concerned with timing the bubble. Of course timing the bubble cannot be accurate. However the investor would be able to use signals for buy or sell decisions. For this purpose we use the bubble detection models to forecast. We then develop trading rules based on inferences about the conditional probability of a crash and a rally and estimate risk adjusted returns from exercising these trading rules. We make use of a model specifically developed to detect periodically collapsing speculative bubbles by van Norden and Schaller (1999). This methodology is characterized by a time-varying probability of collapse of positive and negative speculative bubbles. The measures to calculate fundamental values in this study are (i) the dividend multiple approach and (ii) Campbell and Shillerís (1987) VaR model of dividend component of prices. The data employed in this study are selected REIT indices in Europe.
Wittig, Silke. "Forecasting in the Retail Property Sector." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Baroni, Michel, Fabrice Barthélémy, and Mahdi Mokrane. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices From a PCA Repeat Sales Index." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Case & Shiller repeat sales indices is a means of constructing real estate price indices only based on repeated observations of property transactions. No forecasts may be considered because of the method itself that lies on information entirely contained in the property market. Baroni M., BarthÈlÈmy F, Mokrane M. (2007) proposed an alternative repeat sales index using real estate capital returns and comparing them to other returns calculated from economic or financial variables. To elaborate this index PCA factors are computed and can be used for prediction if forecasts are available for the explanatory variables. Assuming the stability of the multi-factorial model elaborated to construct the index, we try in this paper to forecast the 2009 index for the housing market in Paris and its suburbs, from data or estimations on the explanatory economic or financial variables. In a first part, the methodology of the index and the dataset are described. In a second part the assumptions and estimations on the variables are discussed and various scenarios are elaborated and commented. In a last part, the sensitivity of the model to variations in the most influent variables is tested. Our main finding is that the decrease of the index during 2009 is explained by the factors that can be considered as ìfundamentalsî of the market.""
Zaleczna, Magdalena, and Tuna Tasan-Kok. "Formal and Non Formal Obstacles by Entering into Public Private Partnership in Urban Development Projects in Poland." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In the 1990s, first projects emerged in Poland as first forms of PPPs. These involved municipal services and the construction/improvement of technical infrastructure facilities, and were mainly small investments implemented by local governments. At that time, the institution of public-private partnership did not formally exist within the legal system. In October 2005, the principles of public-private partnership in Poland finally became unambiguously defined. The new law settled the question of the nature and legality of PPP. However, the law was not used in practice, so its implementation may not be considered a success. On 6 of January 2009 President of Poland signed the new law about PPP. A new act promises a new direction in the use of public-private partnership by public and private entities. For many years, quasi-PPP initiatives have taken place, that is, projects that do not fall under public-private partnership according to the legislature, but from the point of view of their organization and objectives they are of such nature. Local governments are clearly interested in using this option, but a multitude of obstacles limits the implementation of projects in the form of broadly understood PPP. The existing state of infrastructure development and possibility of using EU aid funds should strongly encourage the use of PPP also in large-scale urban development and regeneration in cities. Authors investigated past and current obstacles existing by entering into PPP in urban development projects in Poland, non only of legal but also of socio-political nature. They aimed at presenting some solutions based on EU experience.
Urschel, Oliver. "From ìLocation, Location, Locationî to a Broader View at Real Estate Risk." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In the opinion of practicioners real estate risk is determined by three factors: the location, the location and the location of the property. At the one hand, this leads to systematically neglecting other important groups of risks in real estate companies. On the other hand, nowadays scientific debate distinguishes several qualities of risk management systems: risk management of the single property, qualitative portfolio risk management, quantitative risk management and _ as the most advanced approach ñ an all_embracing enterprise risk management. The concentration on location based risks and therefore on risks on a single_object_level is cumbersomely to taking further steps towards such an advanced risk management in real estate companies. First of all, the paper presents the results of a broadly based literature review. These results indicate, that besides location based risks further groups of risks exist, which have a direct impact on property performance. These especially include object_ based risks, for example tenantís creditworthiness or building substance risk, and corporate_based risks such as management quality, financial or legal risks. In the following the paper draws the concept for a model to integrate object_related corporate_based_risks into the risk assessment of single properties by distinguishing the market_ and location_determined ìrental valueî and the actually realized rent. The gap between the two values indicates difficulties arising from object_based risks, for example tenantís creditworthiness or management quality ñ in other words: the property could perform better if problems that arise from the companyís sphere were smoothed out. The paper closes with an outlook on possibilities for the further development of risk management systems in real estate companies.
Chernobai, Ekaterina, and Anna Chernobai. "General Equilibrium for Housing Liquidity in a Competitive Environment." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "We develop a theoretical model of illiquidity, in which illiquid assets are being traded by two agents -- buyers and sellers. Illiquidity is defined as the expected time it takes a seller to sell his asset at the optimal price. The theoretical model is developed in the context of transactions of residential housing properties that exemplify this type of assets. Unlike markets with perfectly liquid assets, in trading illiquid assets delaying the transaction creates a positive value to both sellers and buyers, that is induced by a non-zero probability that a better deal may come up. Then, because housing markets are decentralized, home buyers are willing to accept time-related search costs as the price of finding a better match. Sellerís waiting, on the other hand, may be rewarded with a visit of the buyer who assigns the highest value to his house and is willing to pay the offered price. In our model, buyers are modeled as agents that are heterogeneous in their observed match with a house that they visit. At the same time, by their nature houses are heterogeneous and thus offer different levels of utility to different prospective buyers. A household buys a house only if the observed match is at least as high as the reservation match. During the homeownership, however, the match may get lost (for example, due to change in family size or job relocation), in which case the owner immediately puts the house up for sale, thus assuming simultaneously a role of a seller and a buyer. The objective of this paper is two-fold. The first goal is to develop a theoretical framework for the effects of competition among buyers ñ a consequence of a multiple-buyer arrival ñ on (a) equilibrium sales prices for the properties and (b) their levels of liquidity, namely time on the market. This Nash equilibrium is simultaneously determined for the two outcomes of this competitive behavior. As an illustration, if a house that is put up by seller for sale is inspected by two prospective buyers, then the probability of the house getting sold during this period is higher than in the case with only one buyer. Thus, time on the market should decline with a higher number of buyers. At the same time, the seller knows that each buyer visits two different houses each period. As a result, a buyerís match for a house exceeding his reservation match does not guarantee his buying this house. This occurs because there exists a possibility that the match observed for the second house is higher than for the first house. This in turn reduces the probability that the seller sells her house to a prospective buyer in this period, and so the time on the market is expected to increase. We hypothesize that the reduction in the probability of sale due to the possibility of a buyerís better match with a different house would be outweighed by a better chance of having her own house sold due to the presence of an additional prospective buyer. In equilibrium, in the case with two buyers this results in time on the market being shorter. In turn, the equilibrium sale price is expected to be lower with two prospective buyers visiting each house in each period. Furthermore, if the buyer arrival process is sufficiently dense, a higher number of buyers visiting same house each period is expected to result in a lower equilibrium price and time on the market. In the limit, we expect to see a perfectly liquid market. We seek to determine whether the relation between the arrival frequency and the level of liquidity is linear. The second objective is to generalize the model by extending it to a case with two classes of buyers and two classes of houses. Namely, in our model, buyers can vary in their expected tenure and can be short-term or long-term buyers and the two types of houses are (1) lower-quality houses that do not provide a match sufficiently high to appeal to a prospective buyer, and (2) higher-quality houses that do. The two types of houses should be priced differently. Then, in each period, each prospective buyer visits two houses ñ one house of each type ñ and picks the one with the highest net gain. The trade-off to be considered here can be intuitively summarized as follows: Even if a buyer observes a higher match with the first house than with the second, provided that the price exceeds substantially the price of the second house, the net gain of the first house is reduced, thus encouraging the buyerís preference to switch from the first house with a higher match to the second house with a lower match but a lower price. In our model, short-term buyersí per-period probability of buying a house is more sensitive to changes in sales prices than the corresponding probability of long-term buyers. In our model we also expect to establish the result that, in the presence of short-term and longterm buyers, there is a higher equilibrium relative proportion of short-term buyers choosing the lower-quality houses and a higher equilibrium relative proportion of long-term buyers selecting higher-quality houses as their housing choice. This happens because long-term buyers are less sensitive to changes in sales prices and can amortize a higher price paid over a longer holding horizon. This project contributes to existing, although limited, body of theoretical literature on equilibrium in the housing markets. While applied to a specific area ñ housing markets ñ we believe that this model is among the first to establish a theoretical model of complex homeownership decisions by explicitly accounting for multiple agents and expected holding horizons. Extensions of this model include generalizations to decisions between buying and renting a house, as well as to a more general topic of pricing of illiquid assets.""
Erol, Isil, and Buket Aysegul Ozbakir. "GIS-Based Spatial Analysis for the Determinants of REIT-Owned Commercial Property Rents in Istanbul Metropolitan Area." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Over the past decade, Istanbul Metropolitan Area has been the international center of Turkeyís various service sectors, including producer, distributive, and especially financial services. Today, foreign investors are heavily investing in high-rise office blocks and shopping centers in Istanbul. Having population of 12 million, Istanbul has more modern shopping centers than most European cities ñ 58 existing centers and 47 more are being built - and 40 per cent of the stores in shopping centers are either foreign-owned or franchises of foreign companies. The objective of this paper is, firstly, to carry out a spatial analysis of the physical, socio-economic and locational rent determinants of the offices and commercial (shopping centres) properties in Istanbul Metropolitan Area using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Our data set includes a detailed survey of 500 financial and commercial properties particularly owned by the Turkish REITs. Turkey established its REIT structure in 1998, and currently there are 14 REITs listed in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. REITs own prestigious financial and commercial properties located mostly in the CBD, constituting the Historical Peninsula, Beyoglu, Sisli, Besiktas, and Sariyer where the sampling data for this study are also collected. Both an in-depth survey of the offices and shopping centers and their locational parameters derived from GIS are subjected to PCA. Results of the PCA show that each component is linked to a different meaning of the rent determination of a commercial property. Second, this study attempts to construct, for the first time in the literature, a cross-sectional Real Estate Valuation Index (REVI), based on a weighted combination of the PCA components using GIS. The spatial distribution of this index in Istanbul will also make significant contributions to a thorough analysis of the real estate market in Turkey.""
Lee, Stephen. "Global and Regional Integration in European Real Estate Markets." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper examines the integration between nine real estate markets namely, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland and the UK since 1990 using a number of innovations over previous studies. First, unlike previous studies we uses observed global and regional indices to address the difficulties of interpretation of the results of orthogonalized indexes. Second, we use weekly data in our estimation to increase the precision of the results while avoiding the bias induced by non-synchronous trading hours from the use of daily data. Finally, to reduce the impact large country returns have on market capitalised indices we use un-weighted global and regional indices. This approach should therefore provide a more accurate assessment global/regional integration of European securitised real estate market returns and reduce the possibility of spurious correlation.
Zelazowski, Konrad. "Global Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Polish Housing Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009.

"Polish housing market has been developing significantly since 2005. However, recent real estate market crisis and financial collapse in USA and European countries did not remain without an impact on Polish economy. The immediate reaction of Polish banking sector was a tightening of mortgage lending. Financial Supervision Authority recommended to reduce the available LTV to 70% and only for borrowers with high creditability. Reduced availability of mortgage loan resulted in declining demand for residential properties. The latest statistics show that the prices of properties in main Polish cities has decreased by 5-7%. The aim of the paper is to investigate possible consequences of recent financial crisis for Polish real estate market development. Is it a temporary slowdown or a long term collapse?""

Finkenzeller, Konrad, and Tobias Dechant. "Global Infrastructure - A New Dimension of Real Estate: An Asset Allocation Analysis." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The significant correlation between infrastructure and economic productivity mirrors ñ especially in times of required global competitiveness ñ the importance as well as the fundamental role of this sector. In recent years, private investment in infrastructure ñ direct as well as indirect ñ has significantly increased. This has been mainly caused by a financial strain on governments, making them unable to provide adequate infrastructure provision. Considering the current financial and economic crisis, the aspect of infrastructure investment might gain even more weight what is due to governmental funding programmes all over the world. Therefore, this paper aims to establish a descriptional and definitional framework of infrastructure as well as a classification of infrastructure within the asset class real estate. Moreover, the importance of infrastructure in an economic context, based on existing literature, is reconsidered. In the analytical part of this study, time series data of total infrastructure returns are incorporated into an asset allocation model which is based on a meanñlower partial moment approach instead of a ìusualî meanñvariance optimization algorithm. This asset allocation model aims to derive the optimal proportion of infrastructure within a multi asset portfolio consisting of equities, government bonds, T-bills as well as direct and indirect real estate. Comparing obtained portfolio allocations should reveal the difference between real estate and infrastructure regarding their optimal portfolio weights and might constitute an indicator if infrastructure depicts a useful extension for institutional investors within their multi asset portfolios.""
Nozeman, Ed. "Growth Strategies of Real Estate Companies in a Mature Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Literature on corporations shows a strong interest in strategies, the way these are implemented and the effectiveness of the applied instruments. Notably Ansoff, Hewlett, Kim/Mauborgne and Porter have launched interesting concepts as to what type of strategies can be differentiated and under what conditions these concepts prove to be viable. The applicability of those concepts have until now been limited to large listed mostly manufacturing companies. Little evidence is available that these concepts are also valid in the real estate industry. The latter is responsible for a considerable share in national employment. Therefore, more insight in type and motivations of strategies followed could enhance knowledge about a decisive element of this industry The objective of this paper is to present the findings on growth strategies based on interviews with managing directors of 30 medium sized real estate companies in The Netherlands. In accordance with accepted theoretical notions from authors mentioned corporate strategies have been divided into competition strategies, growth strategies and development strategies. Competition strategies concern the way companies try to be unique or different from their competitors through the emphasis on cost leadership, differentiation or focus Growth strategies deal with the alternatives companies should select when growth or continuity is their main aim. Those alternatives are fourfold : market penetration, market development, product development and diversification. Market has been confined to the geographical dimension Development strategies deal with the way companies has implemented the selected growth strategy. Three alternatives are at hand : internal development, acquisition and cooperation Two groups of companies have been approached for this purpose. One group comprises real estate developers, partly independent, partly affiliated to financial or construction firms. The other group comprises housing corporations which deploy development activities since 1995. The results reflect interesting differences and similarities. Not only in time (past,present,future) but also between the various groups (developers vs housing corporations). Path dependency is unmistakenly recognizable which can be traced back a.o. to the expertise and interest of the management The organization of this paper has the following structure. At first relevant literature is presented (part 1), then the research design will be explained (part 2), results derived from interviews and annual reports will be presented (part 3). Conclusions and directions for future research are reported in part 4.
Yiu, Chung Yim, Yishuang Xu, and Coune Cao. "Haven't Learned from the Past? A Common Sympton of Asset Bubble Implosions." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "By reviewing the previous three asset bubble implosions, viz. (1) the ìLost Decadeî of Japan in the 1980s; (2) the Asian Financial Crisis in Hong Kong in 1997; and (3) the Financial Tsunami in the USA in 2008, a common symptom of negative real interest rate is very clearly revealed before the implosion of the three bubbles, although the bubbles might have been caused by very different reasons. Credit expansion due to negative interest rate has long been recognized since Irving Fisherís The Theory of Interest, yet in the study of the three asset bubbles, the central governments or the Federal Reserve of the US had to cut substantially the short-term interest rate for various reasons, even in a situation of extremely high inflation rate. The asset pricing bubbles are bound to be burst in the light of the resulting negative interest rate. This paper reviews the formation and the implosion of the three asset bubbles, with a focus on the temporal change of their real interest rates. It also studies the reasons why the central governments had to cut the interest rate, even when the inflation rate was high. It aims to argue that, asset bubble implosion may not be prevented nor accurately predicted though, there is a clear symptom in the markets. It also contends that, unfortunately, even if the symptom can be known, next asset bubbles would still be formed and imploded.""
Carvalho, Joao Manuel. "Hotel Building's Valuation - Is There a Real Estate Value to State or Is It Just Deducted as a Partial Business Value?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Phang, Sock-Yong. "Housing Affordability Policy: Implications for Housing Markets and Housing Elasticities." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009.

Housing affordability is a policy that is often accorded a great deal of policy attention by governments of many countries. In this paper, we examine the market implications of setting a house price to household income policy target for a market segment by the government. The policy requires active intervention on the housing supply side by the government with regard to the targeted sector. In the presence of uncertainty and resource constraints, the objective of house price affordability is achieved for the targeted household at the expense of greater volatility in residential construction activity. When the size of the targeted sector is significant in size, there are spillover price and volume effects on the non-targeted housing market segment. This results in political pressure on the government to expand housing affordability targets to increasing segments of the population. Using a simple model of the housing market with a housing affordability policy target, we derive price elasticity of housing supply of zero and absolute value of price elasticity of demand for housing to be equal to the income elasticity of demand for housing. The Singapore government intervenes extensively in the housing sector to ensure housing affordability, with a resulting homeownership rate of 91 percent for the resident population. The above hypotheses regarding the implication of setting a house price to income ratio target are tested using data for the Singapore housing market.

Mändle, Markus, and Ina Wagner. "Housing Co-operatives' Networks in Germany: Performance Enhancing through Hybrid Forms of Organization." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Housing co-operatives are an important supplier of housing in Germany. It can be noted recently that these medium-sized companies owned by private members enforce networking in the form of intercorporate cooperation with the objective of enhancing their performance. Unlike in banking ñ where co-operative alliances result usually in an hierarchic form of unified governance caused by mergers ñ this is not common in the German housing industry. Housing cooperatives rather try to retain their independence by using networks as hybrid forms of organization for creating a surplus on their ìmember valueî. This paper discusses the question which form of organization could be an appropriate way for enhancing housing co-operativesí performance. Several factors are deducted which can be considered to determine appropriate forms of cooperation.
de La Paz, Paloma Taltavull, and Karen M. Gibler. "Housing Market Reactions in Presence of Retirees Migration." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Housing markets has growth very strongly during last 10 years in many Spanish areas. Some of them have been receiving increasing number of retiree migrants from the north and central Europe who own houses to live during a part of the year, coinciding with the period of stronger growth on house building. This paper deepen on the relationship between the increase of this type of migration and the market equilibrium, checking the impacts of the arrivals on the building rate and housing prices growth rate. Using information coming from REVICVAL database, we construct a pseudo panel adding general information coming from secondary data and estimating the impact of the retiree migrants arrivals on the housing construction and prices. It also identify the differential impact by nationalities.
Zulkepli, Masitah binti, and Maziah binti Ismail. "Housing Needs in Malaysia." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Housing is an important component of the economy where it has been the governmentís policy to place a roof over the head of every citizen. Past Malaysia Plans have attempted to plan for the realization of this policy. Hence, an accurate projection of housing needs is imperative. Although projections were made under each Malaysia Plan, the projections did not reflect the actual needs. The mismatch of the housing needs provided by the government and the local needs has been identified as the main problem of the nationís housing development. This paper investigates the affordability, adequacy and suitability factors, which is viewed as an attribute of housing needs. Specific objectives of the research are to review the effectiveness of existing housing needs model applied in determining housing requirement in Malaysia and to propose a workable model for an accurate projection of housing needs. The research population and samples are property developers and house buyers which are determined using area and random sampling. Data from the three areas; Johor Bahru, Klang Valley and Pulau Pinang are gathered from the questionnaires and interview session. The data are analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical method. The outcome of this research is a workable model that is able to overcome the deficiencies of the existing model as well as has the ability to measure the current and future housing needs accurately.""
Xiao, Qin. "Housing Price, Mortgage Lending and Financial Crisis: A UK Perspective." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The standard literature usually models the price dynamics as a martingale process with the assumption that asset markets are continuously efficient. A casual glance at the experiences of the world would suggest otherwise. In this study, we differentiate ourselves by explicitly model the nonlinear dynamic interactions between two market forces: a speculative trend-following bubble-creation force and an error-correction equilibrium-returning force. We will try to explain how such interaction, facilitated with credit supplied by speculative financial institutions, can lead to market crashes. The model will be tested against relevant UK data.
Schilder, Frans. "Housing Subsidies in the Netherlands: Some Effects and Consequences." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Schulte, Karl-Werner, and Gisela Schulte-Daxboek. "How Can Real Estate Departments Attract Donors and Sponsors? Experiences from the IRE|BS Model." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Conijn, Johan, and Frans Schilder. "How Housing Associations Loose Their Value: The Value Gap in the Netherlands." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The value gap between rented houses and owner_occupied houses is well known in the literature. It is identified as a factor that may give rise to a gentrification process (Hamnett & Randolph, 1988). The increase of the owner_occupied sector at the expense of the rented sector is also partly attributed to the value gap. In the Netherlands the value gap between the owner_occupied and the rented sector is immense. This is especially the case with the rented houses owned by the housing associations with a share of 1/3 of the total housing stock. The vacant possession value of these houses is on an average Ä 151.000; the reported tenanted value is no more than Ä 33.000. Important factors which are responsible for this gap are on the one hand the fiscal subsidies in the owner_occupied sector and on the other hand rent control and the policy of the housing association characterized by a low rent level and high maintenance costs. In the paper we will present a model that analyses the value gap for the houses of the housing associations. By using the well known concept of the user costs and using a market equilibrium as a reference the model quantifies the influence of the factors which cause the value gap. This is done for the Netherlands in total and for every of the 450 housing associations separately. Also regional differences will be presented. In the paper we also explore why the value gap is a structural phenomenon in the Netherlands and why it is an important factor contributing to the malfunctioning of the housing market. This will give an interesting expansion of the theory on the value gap. An analysis of the consequences of the value gap will be presented in an other paper (Schilder and Conijn, 2009).
Bokum, Thomas R. Ten. "How to Geographically Allocate a Pan-European Logistics Real Estate Fund." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Ivanička, Koloman, and Daniela Spirkova. "Impact of Economic Crises on Slovak Real Estate Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. European Union. The real estate market that was only slowly developing in Nineties, gained momentum in past five years and substantial investments has been realized. The booming market attracted more credits from banks that actually have loosed their risk controls. Risk beared by the some developers has beeen transferred to banks that have agreed to fund disproportionate part of the investments. In the second half of 2008, the real estate demand has declined, moreover the entrance of Slovakia into Euro zone and the substantial devaluation of the currencies of the neighboring states (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Hungary and Ukraine) has substantially raised the price of labor in Slovakia in comparison to other EU countries that are not members of the Euro zone. The paper shows the development of Slovak real estate market in the last years, shows the impact of the crises, tries to assess its consequences, and to formulate the necessary actions needed for the reduction of the impact of the crises on the real estate markets.
Song, Han-Suck, and Mats Wilhelmsson. "Improved Price Index for Condominiums." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper proposes a price index construction methodology that can increase the quality of price index data for condominiums in Sweden. Currently, officially published market price indexes for condominiums and houses in Sweden suffer from a number of shortcomings. Notably they do not control for quality, and they are based on dates when transfer of ownership of the home occurs, and not the contract date. Market coverage is yet another area that may cause problems for index construction, especially during times when the number of transactions is low, and when there exist a large number of brokers ñ the primary suppliers of data ñ that do not feed the system with sales information. We describe a new price index that controls for quality and reflect most recent price levels and changes. We also discuss the efforts we undertake in order to increase market coverage. With access to a unique database we estimate a price index with the improved methodology, and contrasts it to commonly used average price indexes. Naturally, there is a trade-off between control of quality, access to the most recent transactions, and market coverage on one hand, and ease of construction on the other hand. Therefore we also discuss current limitations of the improved methodology and how they may be solved in the future, such as problems with model specification with respect to different local market conditions, changing relationships over time, and the difficulty of obtaining attributes. Finally we discuss the potential value of an improved price index for the establishment of risk management instruments such as insurance and derivatives products for the housing market.
Lundgren, Berndt. "Improving the Conceptual Design in Residential Development Using the Means-End Chain Approach." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Residential development and market analysis is closely related to the question why some people buy in certain residential developments and other not. The reason is obvious if the product is not appreciated by consumers they will search for another alternative which will decrease the estimated market share for a specific residential project. Research concerning the means end chain theory and the laddering technique has been quite extensive in food industry but examples in residential development is rare. This study aims at closing this gap and investigates if we can use knowledge of how people link their experiences of the physical environment in a residential development to functional and psychological consequences and personal values to have an idea of how to build more attractive residential developments in the future to specific target groups. In-depth laddering interviews were made with 32 respondents who visited an open house sale of tenant owned apartment on sale. We hypothesise that there exist a difference between bidders and non-bidders regarding their beliefs of self-relevant consequences and abstract personal values. In our study we did not find any major difference in terminal values, but instrumental values do differ. This is true also for abstract product attributes and functional and psychological consequences. Professional developers and planners were able to usebeliefs of bidders and non-bidders the residential development Frˆsunda, north of Stockholm, Sweden.
Högberg, Lovisa. "Incentives for Energy Efficiency Measures while Renovating Apartment Blocks." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Reed, Richard, and Hao Wu. "Increasing Housing Affordability by Identifying and Monitoring Property Cycles." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Cycle theory is one of the basic human observations of the natural world as well as in human societies. It is defined by the Dictionary of Theories as ìevents, economics and political systems move through cycles similar to the natural life-cycles of living beingsî (Bothamley 2002, p.133). Being a subset of the market system, the level of house prices can be studied and explained in a way that is consistent with how the stability of the entire system is studied. Throughout the 20th century leading economists including Mitchell (1927) and Sherman (1991) defined the business cycle as a phenomenon found typically in a market economy and not to be seen in a pure planned economy. The character and importance of the market system and the pricing system has been demonstrated extensively in the literature with competing evidence and theories continuously being introduced (Friedman 1981; Samuelson 1992) (add Samuelson and Nordhaus, 2001). The history of modern society is where each market system is continuously seeking to identify the ëbalancing pointí or ëequilibriumí. As Schumpeter (1939) explained: ìanalysing business cycles means neither more nor less than analysing the economic process of the capitalist eraî. This proposal uses this proven body of knowledge about property cycles to examine and forecast medium to long-term housing cycles for individual suburbs in seven capital cities in Australia (i.e. Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney) , which in turn will reduce housing stress and increase affordability. An increased certainty about the potential for lower house prices will give household a higher level of confidence when considering whether to enter the market. Property cycle research must be supported by comprehensive data sources which are only recently available due to advancements in technology
Beusker, Elisabeth. "Indicators and Drivers of Occupancy Costs." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "To maximize the returns on a real estate investment, it is essential that property owners intelligently manage all the variables that could negatively impact the long-term value of the asset. Occupancy costs have historically represented a large percent of what is spent over the lifetime of a real estate investment. Therefore, to maximize the returns on their investment, it is important that property owners, first, make a cost benefit analysis of various options, and second, reduce the occupancy costs associated with the chosen option by either eliminating or better managing the underlying drivers. This study is addressed to facilitate the decisions made around the second point by gaining a better understanding of the causal relationships between identified drivers and occupancy cost indictors. By examining the costs and all the factors that go into those costs, of 150 municipal buildings (100 schools, 50 sports facilities), the research looks to both build on the investment versus occupancy cost analyses done by GSD (2003) and Stoy (2005, 2008) and help property owners identifying how they can better reduce occupancy expenditures and manage their investments more intelligently.""
D’Amato, Maurizio. "Integrating a Location Value Response Surface Model with Bootstrap Technique: A Case of Mass Appraising in Bari." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The paper is focused on the application of a Mass Appraising methodology in urban context with few real estate data available. In the urban context of Bari after a traditional MRA application, a Location Value Response Surface model have been tested (OíConnor, 1982) to 50 real estate transactions. In order to improve the quality of mass appraising model the LVRS was integrated with a bootstrap technique
Downie, Mary Lou, and Gill Robson. "Integrating Automated Valuation Models (AVMs) with Valuation Services to Meet the Needs of UK Borrowers, Lenders and Valuers." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Lenders traditionally support decisions on property secured loans by instructing a property valuation. However AVM use for residential loan decisions has grown rapidly in the UK and elsewhere, altering demand for traditional valuation services (Downie & Robson, 2007). This paper analyses policy options for the UK valuersí professional body, the RICS, in response to AVM use. It is based on research funded by the RICS Education Trust and Residential Faculty, commencing with interviews and a survey examining valuersí changing roles in residential loan valuation in the UK, including the use of AVMs. The online survey provided a self-selected sample giving unique evidence of valuersí involvement with and attitudes to AVMs. It shows that a small number used AVMs at a high level, including advising credit risk managers on policy for AVM use. However, a majority had no experience of AVMs but were receptive to using them to enhance their service to clients. Subsequent interviews with lenders explored their choices between different valuation and survey levels, including AVMs. It further explored the roles of valuers in supporting credit risk management, including AVM policy, and fulfilling the requirements of Basel 2 for loan valuations as interpreted by the UK FSA (FSA, 2006, 2007). Lenders and valuers using AVMs reflected on possible professional body policy for regulation or guidance of valuersí AVM use and advice to borrowers and lenders. The paper analyses possible approaches to advice, guidance and regulation of AVM use by the UK professional body, drawing on the survey and interview results together with a review of other countriesí professional body responses to AVMs.
Thanh, Nguyen Bao. "Integrating Property Rights Approach and Urban Redevelopment in Transitional Economy." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Since 1993, HCMC urban center has been seeing bloom in high-rise building, together with the change in property rights. When the private property rights is officially recognized in real estate, urban land developments booms. This study aims to gain a better understanding on the relation between the privatization of property rights process and HCMC real estate development with combined qualitative and quantitative approaches. Three case studies will be used for relating, analyzing and querying non-graphical data to see why and how this property rights reform can contribute to a deeper transition toward urban land. The result show that rapid center transformation since 1993 has been significantly facilitated by the formal institution of land development right. The decentralization land use right unlocks the potential value of the land in the central city; therefore the government needs to pay more attention to the right of the existing land users during the gradual transition. However, the apprehensive institution of land development right induces swift land redevelopment. These results have implications for policies aiming at alleviating prodigal urban land in Vietnam. Then my analysis suggests that private land ownership is the goal for further institution change.
Kucharska-Stasiak, Ewa. "International and National Valuation Standards." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Globalization process generated need for changes in real estate valuation system. A common denominator for national systems was required. International Valuation Standards, which not only standardize definitions and valuation process but also establish procedures and clarify valuation methodology, are the answer for those needs. The aim of the paper is to indicate that International Valuation Standards cannot be considered as competitive to National Valuation Standards. International Valuation Standards concentrate on procedural and definitional issues. They do not cover ethical guidelines for valuers and technical aspects of valuation methodology. The mentioned issues are mainly determined by institutional dimension of national real estate markets.""
Razali, Muhammad Najib, and Hishamuddin Mohd. Ali. "Internet Business Strategy by Property Companies in Asia." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The use of internet as part of business strategy is very significant to property companies. This is especially during global financial crisis where each company tries to minimum the expenses. It is believe that internet can save a lot of money in particular companies operating cost. Beside, in the property business, property companies now have to be very creative and the market is very competitive due to globalization and liberalization issues. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the internet business strategy among the property companies in Asia. This comprises companies in Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. Indexes of internet business strategy and property companies in Asia were developed. This survey will give significant overview on the level of internet business strategy among property companies in Asia.
Ke, Qiulin, and Michael White. "Investigating the Dynamics of, and Interaction Between, Shanghai Office Submarkets." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The Shanghai office market has developed rapidly over the past two decades. As a consequence of this development two, apparently distinct, office markets, i.e. central Puxi district and Lujiazhui district in Pudong, have developed in central Shanghai. This raises the issue as to whether the Shanghai office market can be viewed as a homogenous entity or whether there is imperfect substitutability across office locations within the city. The latter case raises the possibility of the existence of office submarkets. Submarkets have been examined in many papers in relation to housing markets but few studies examine them in relation to office markets. Economic growth could mean that cities in which there might have been one office market may experience spatial change over time and new office markets may develop as a response to demand pressure on the one hand and supply restrictiveness in certain intra_city locations on the other. The rapid growth experienced in Shanghai may have created new office submarkets, central Puxi and Lujiazhui, in Pudong New District. The two markets upon which this paper focuses account for 68% of the total office stock in the city. In order to address the issues identified above, this paper will examine intra_metropolitan rental dynamics in these markets, identify any interrelationships between these markets, and consider whether they form distinct office submarkets.
Kryvobokov, Marko. "Is It Worth Identifying Service Employment (Sub)Centres for Modelling Apartment Prices? The Case of Lyon, France." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The tradition of identifying urban centres in different aspects of urban study is as old as urban modelling itself. The use of the attributes of the CBD and several subcentres instead of the characteristics of all land parcels or zones can be seen as a higher level of analysis. On the other hand, old technological limitations to consideration of smaller territorial units are being successfully overcome, and research efforts can be directed to more detailed spatial analysis. The question is: do we still need generalisation, i.e. urban centres identification, or it is preferable to operate at meso- or even micro-geographical levels in real estate prices modelling? We address this question at the geographical level of Traffic Analysis Zones. The paper is devoted to the formal identification of service employment centres in the Lyon Urban Area and their use in a hedonic model of apartment prices, which includes more than forty apartment attributes and location attributes as control variables. The application of the tradition of centres consideration is compared with an ìobjectiveî centrality index and a ìsubjectiveî accessibility index calculated for each zone. The aim is to find out, which of the three concepts better fits a regression model of apartment prices. Travel time by different transportation modes is considered. In hedonic modelling, both global and geographically weighted OLS regressions are used accompanied by measures of spatial autocorrelation and spatial variability. A surprising result is that the zone traditionally considered as being the CBD appears not to be as important for apartment prices as two of the identified subcentres. The other result is that the goodness-of-fit of both global and local hedonic models with these two subcentres is slightly better than that with an accessibility index, which in turn is slightly better than that with a centrality index.""
Biasin, Massimo, Emanuela Giacomini, and Anna Grazia Quaranta. "Italian Public REITs' Governance Structure and NAV Discount." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Italian Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are closed-end legal entities structured in the form of investment funds with finite life, externally managed by a management company. Retail REITs are subject to prudential and tax regulation aimed, respectively, to protect and favour retail investors. Market evidence shows that public REITs typically trade at (deep) discount on NAV figures. The intermediation model has severe agency implications and conflicts of interest issues. In particular, retail investors seem to have little control over managers due to the externally management mechanism. In order to improve investorsí governance capability, mandatory provision of a shareholdersí meeting in the article of association of newly established REITs has recently been introduced by regulation. This rule aims to limit managersí opportunistic behaviour and to insure higher performance discipline. The research objective of the paper is to investigate the effects of the (Italian) REITs governance and intermediation structure on market prices discount relative to NAV figures. It first investigates the effects of the new REITsí governance provisions by analyzing the correlation between investorsí control over managers and sharesí market price discount relative to NAV. The hypothesis is that (potential) higher control (i.e. the shareholdersí meeting provision) reduces agency costs having a positive price impact. This also due to market discipline in terms of potential takeovers of poorly managed REITs. This incentive does not affect traditional REITs not having shareholdersí control mechanisms. At the second stage, the NAV discount may be influenced by other legal and economic features of REITs, like leverage and finite life of the closed-end investment vehicle as well as mandatory listing. The analysis controls for these characteristics in order to investigate how the institutional framework affects market pricesí path.
Brown, Gordon, and J.B Stek. "Key Factors in Restructuring Post-Socialist, Second-Tier European Cities and Their Lessons." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "In the 1990s, with large inflows of capital and the restitution of property, real estate markets in many former east bloc countries like Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary began to develop. Capital inflows focused on capitol cities, helping restructure former industrial zones and generating increased prosperity in these firsttier cities. But it was different in the second-tier cities: not only did they receive less attention from international real estate developers and investors, what did develop often failed to yield comparable positive results. In fact, what did develop in many second-tier cities were extensive suburban greenfield sites while problem sites in the core city areas were neglected. This was significantly a result of lack of experience and knowledge about market-based real estate development at (local) government. Using a case study of four second-tier cities in Poland and the Czech Republic, this paper examines pre- and early post-transition urban and real estate development patterns involving greenfields, brownfields, blank spots, network and surface infrastructure in these cities. It compares the patterns in these cities to identify key similarities and differences in how they enhanced or limited further real estate development and discusses the role of local government as it has previously and should in the future address how large-scale urban patterns can be managed to stimulate effective real estate development.""
Bogenstätter, Ulrich. "Key Performance Indicators of Tenancy - Does IT-Tune Up Downsize Vacancy, General Administration Expense and Enhance Customer Satisfaction?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. After a strong period of ìAsset-Managementî (sale and resale of residential units) housing companies focus on ìProperty Managementî. Based on a survey of TU Darmstadt (supported by Aareon) with 304 housing companies in Germany (housing cooperatives or communal, investors and administrators of condominiums) the author conducted further research on the critical factors for success and the hurdles to success within selected housing companies. Here focus is on tenancy, as one of most critical core business processes. There are different ways to run this process. Housing companies differ significanctly in their strategies used to reduce vacancies due to changes in tenancy, as well as in the development and redevelopment of residential areas and existing units. Key indicators to measure the success of the tenancy process are rarely applied. For an optimization, individual parts of the process are isolated in order to provide possibilities to describe tune-ups. Tune-ups are defined as the means to accelerate the implementation of the customer requirements and help to reduce general administration expenses and to assure management decision. The author measures the current weaknesses and strengths of IT-solutions (Portfolio Management, Internet, time scheduling, Ö) and quantifies the benefits.
Mrosek, Holger, and Ralf Seidenspinner. "Land Development and Provision of Public Infrastructure - Public Task or Private Business?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Leidel, Katja, and Hans Willhelm Alfen. "Lifecycle-Oriented Risk Management for PPP-Projects in Public Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Nothing else has as strong an influence on success in the planning and execution of a Public Private Partnership (PPP) as the identification, evaluation, allocation and controlling of risk. Yet risk management of PPP remains largely unexplored. For many market participants, great uncertainty prevails in the management of risk. The choices for cost and quality assurance through active control of risks are scarcely known and have not been exhausted adequately. Experiences gained in PPP pilot projects also show that risk management is performed more on a periodic basis instead of dealing with risks consistently. For the optimisation of future PPP projects, a professional approach to risk management has become a necessity in order to reduce the existing complexity. This paper emphasises the significance of risk in life cycle oriented real estate projects, which is most clearly present in long-term contractual arrangements. The risk involved in a project needs to be calculated for the entire project life cycle and accordingly, risk must be controlled throughout this period. Additionally, every step of the value chain such as planning, construction, financing, maintenance, and operation involves specific risk factors. Due to the diverse perspectives and exposures to risk among the participants, this paper will pay special attention to the balancing of the respective interests of the participants. Their differing objectives, functions, risk perception, risk bearing capability affect the process and structure in dealing with risk. As a consequence, each party might implement different kinds of strategies to manage project risks and hence influence the cost effectiveness of the project. Great attention needs to therefore be paid by all of those who are involved in the project. In addition to the risk related characteristics of the project life cycle and the stakeholder perspectives, this paper explores the steps of a risk management process and presents a comprehensive concept which implements all of these critical areas as a basis for further advancements. The author argues for a higher general risk awareness and further aims to present potential for the implementation of a sustainable risk management framework over the entire life cycle of a PPP project in real estate.
Oikarinen, Elias, Martin Hoesli, and Camilo Serrano. "Linkages Between Direct and Indirect Real Estate Returns." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Contemporaneous correlation between the returns of direct and indirect real estate investments is generally found to be weak. However, direct and securitized real estate returns are expected to be cointegrated over the long run, since securitized real estate returns are derived from direct real estate assets. Cointegration between direct and indirect return indices implies that the correlation between the returns converges to one as the investment horizon increases. The relative inefficiency of the direct real estate market suggests that securitized real estate prices react faster to shocks in the fundamentals than direct real estate prices. As such, securitized real estate returns are conceived as a leading indicator of direct real estate returns. Nevertheless, the opposite may also hold due to the speculative, nonfundamental related noise embedded in securitized real estate prices in the short run. This paper examines the dynamic relation between direct and indirect real estate returns in the U.S. for the period 1977Q42008Q2. It contributes to the literature by depicting the linkages between direct and indirect real estate returns, as well as by identifying the response speeds and magnitudes of direct and indirect real estate returns to shocks in the market fundamentals. The response speeds are estimated with vector error correction models.
Gregoir, Stephane, and Tristan-Pierre Maury. "Liquidity Risk and Housing Price Dynamics." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. A large body of literature in real estate has been devoted to the correlation between prices and changes in liquidity of the market (i.e. the ability to sell and buy more or less rapidly). However the specific role of liquidity risk ñ uncertainty in time to sell ñ has not been explored yet. Due to the lack of centralized information on current demand and supply, a household wishing to sell its house is confronted with two sorts of risk: (i) pricing risk (or uncertainty in the price level), (ii) liquidity risk which is damaging since keeping its house unsold on the market is costly. We complement the empirical analyses that have illustrated the influence of price risk on price dynamics by considering the role of liquidity risk proxied by a measure of volatility in sales volumes. Our empirical approach is based on a panel VAR model with GARCH in means effects estimated on data from several areas in and around Paris. In line with microeconomic arguments explaining risk-adverse buyers and sellers' strategies, uncertainty in liquidity negatively affects price changes and sales volumes, but price risk affects negatively price changes but positively sales volumes. The spatial dimension associated to the panel structure decomposes shocks into a local and a common component. Common shocks explain in the long-run more than 75% of the variability in prices and its larger part is related to the consequences of uncertainty. The situation is reversed when turning to the variance in sales volumes. Moreover, persistence of uncertainty is short lived for the common shocks and long lived at a local level. This gives a contrasted picture whose economic properties are analyzed in detail with help of a structural identification scheme in terms of demand and supply shocks.
Kohlert, Daniel, Florian Heydenreich, and Andreas Oehler. "London / Paris: Diversification Benefits through Intracity Diversification." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Diversification in real estate portfolio management can be mainly differentiated in geographic or property-type based strategies. Within geographic diversification, risk reduction can be achieved through different strategies. Diversification benefits through international diversification have been shown by several researchers. Many authors also suggest that regional diversification within one country would improve the risk-return-profiles of real estate portfolios. Lately, research on geographic diversification has focused on economic factors. Several studies have demonstrated that diversifying over regions that differ in their economic conditions (e.g. industry dominance, employment growth etc.), may lead to superior results compared to traditional naive geographic diversification. However, only few studies have examined the benefits of intracity diversification. This is surprising since investing in real estate always bears a trade-off between the benefits of wide geographic diversification and the costs of information and management of those investments. Investment managers often do, therefore, concentrate on few locations because of the high costs and efforts broad investment approaches imply. Due to the special characteristics of real estate properties (heterogeneity, fixed location), however, real estate markets are local markets and assets in local submarkets of a city may behave differently than the city in which they exist. Therefore, research on intracity diversification might shed more light on the real estate portfolio management process and may lead to higher portfolio efficiency by reducing the number of cities required to achieve diversification benefits. This study examines such benefits obtainable through intracity diversification. We employ a unique, twenty-six year (nine year) total return data set for London (Paris) and use quadratic programming to construct a diversified investment portfolio by optimally weighting the intrametropolitan submarkets. The results show that reductions in portfolio risk, represented by standard deviation, are obtainable through intracity geographic diversification at a given rate of return. Therefore, portfolio managers should not see cities as homogeneous markets and should not solely rely on aggregated data, as the latter does not reflect differences in local submarkets.
Sturm, Melanie. "Macroeconomic Environment and the Optimal Mortgage Contract Design." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "We compare conventional mortgage contract designs like the adjustable rate mortgage and the Øxed rate mortgage with an alternative mortgage contract design that allows the borrower to beneØt from interest movements but secures him of any interest rate risk. We investigate the optimal mortgage contract design from both a macroeconomic and the borrower's perspective. Our analysis relies on Monte Carlo Simulations of a risky interest rate, house value and borrower income and distinguishes between diÆerent economic trends. We also study the influence of surprising events in the economy on the optimal mortgage contract design.""
Sipos, Ciprian, Alexandru BUGLEA, and Adrian Crivii. "Main Possibilities to Use the Statistic Methods in Real Estate Valuation." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In accordance with the IVSC standards, the statistical valuation methods or mass appraisal can be used in the real estate valuation as the basis of ad-valorem taxation of property. Also, the statistical valuation can be used to determine how to distribute the financial benefits to government or semi-government authorities. The fundamentals needed to successfully applying statistical methods in assessing real estate are a well-defined legal system, a sufficient large market to ensure database consistency, a proper amount of resources and personnel and a permanent updating of the inventory and databases to ensure the accuracy of valuations. Statistical methods selected with best chance of being successfully used in assessing real estate are the type of confidence intervals based on statistical tests (as Student or Helmert), linear or nonlinear multiple regression models and analytical models based on time series. The level of appraisal can be measured with the median, the mean or the weighted mean and the uniformity is measured with the range, the standard deviation, the dispersion coefficient or average absolute deviation. All those statistical tools was applied by authors on the real estate valuation in the city of Timisoara and the paper presents some examples of the best results obtained referring to residential apartments. The methods can also be applied with good results in valuating land for industrial or residential purposes. The database necessary to carry out the statistical research was made available by Darian Rom Suisse, one of the leaders on the valuation market in Romania. The period included in the analysis refers to the first ten months of 2008 with some predictions for 2009.
Lohse, Moritz, and Andreas Pfnür. "Management of Housing Companies: Challenges, Success Factors and Barriers." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Viruly, François. "Market Institutions and the Future Course of the South African Property Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper develops the proposition that the continued socio- economic fragmentation of the South African property market can largely be explained by the economic and social institutional framework that continues to characterise this market . The proposition is developed within the context of the Institutional Economics literature, and demonstrates the relevance of this theoretical framework in explaining the present and future trajectory of the South African property market. While recent public and private sector policies and interventions have attempted to alter the players in this market , there is growing evidence and concern that a significant institutional ì lock in ì continues to perpetuate historical market outcomes. The South African institutional framework is not only driven by the relationship and actions of existing market players, but is reinforced by town planning decisions that perpetuate historically fragmented markets. Thus it can be argued that unless greater effort is made in changing existing institutional dynamics , it is unlikely to expect a significant transformation in the trajectory of the South African built environment and property market. Indirectly the research outcome has significant implications for the development of property markets in emerging economies.
Scofield, David. "Market Structures and Transaction Costs in Commercial Real Estate Investment: A Multi-Method Approach." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Oligopoly or Latent Efficiency: an analysis of transaction cost disequilibrium in commercial real estate investment in the US and the UK As part of a larger investigation into liquidity and efficiency in commercial real estate investment, this paper considers the question of transaction costs and transactional efficiency in commercial real estate investment based on interviews and case studies conducted in the US and the UK over an eighteen month period in 2007 and 2008. Based on responses received during a series of interviews in London, Atlanta and Chicago, and consistent with transaction cost economics theory concerning exchange governance structures and asset specificity, commercial real estate investment in both the US and the UK incorporates an exchange structure of networked third party intermediaries. These parties facilitate the exchange of property rights through networks of explicit and implicit contracts and expand the trading relationship from unilateral to bilateral exchange to effect an ìequilibrationî (Williamson 1985) of trading hazards. Private ordering and adaptive contracts allow the parties to the exchange to better mitigate uncertainty, attenuate unforeseen circumstances and resolve conflicts by utilizing social networks that forestall conflict and introduce reputation and reciprocity affects enforced through social capital networks. Given the specificity of the real asset being exchanged and the accompanying possibility of increased opportunistic behaviour, exchange intermediaries (agents and brokers) function to reduce the risk of opportunism and self interest on both sides of the exchange, the cost of this governance reflected in the explicit cost of the intermediary. While similar structures of exchange exist in both the UK and the US, however, it was further revealed that the structure of the intermediary role varied between the two markets, with a direct affect on the cost of the transaction. More than 30 one to one interviews were conducted with professional investors of commercial real estate in the UK and the US, and while most aspects of the exchange process are common to both national markets, one fundamental difference stood out. In the UK, both the buyer and seller are represented by a third party broker, while in the US only one broker ñ representing the seller - was typically employed. The cost of the additional agent in the UK process contributes directly to higher transaction costs. Is this transaction cost disequilibrium a product of greater rates of bounded rationality, increasing the risk of opportunism during the exchange, and thus necessitating the inclusion of an additional broker, at higher cost? Bounded rationality and asset specificity creates an environment in which opportunistic behaviour can contribute to hold up and defection on either side of the transaction. Intermediaries are utilized to mitigate the potential risk of opportunism during the exchange, but why would one market require two agents to the exchange, while in another parallel market, with similar institutional players and an equally expensive, complex system of litigation, only one is required? The paper will explore the issue of oligopoly on the commercial real estate investment market in the UK, but also consider the unique system of networks utilized by intermediaries in the UK, inquiring as to whether social network density and constraint variance may increase bounded rationality and necessitate the inclusion of the additional broker, at an additional cost, during the transaction. Interviews conducted offer some clues and suggest that the intermediaries in the UK may be distorting the exchange system, and limiting the flow of information and knowledge, while increasing the risk of opportunism, for purposes of arbitrage. As well, when social capital network theory is employed and social network surveys are administered and the individual social capital networks utilized by a small sample of institutional investment managers are interrogated in the US and the UK, differences observed in the reach, density and constraint of the networks interrogated may also help explain this transaction cost disequilibrium. This paper marks the first time transaction cost economics have been applied to the commercial real estate investment process, and a further first for the inclusion of social capital network theory as a means to unravel the mystery of transaction cost disequilibrium in commercial real estate investment markets in the UK and the US.
Mitchell, Paul. "Market Structures and Transaction Costs in Commercial Real Estate Investment: A Multi-Method Approach." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "In the short time since their introduction, property derivative contracts have become an important tool for property fund managers. The use of the derivative contracts allows market participants to quickly modify their exposure to the commercial property sector and provides for an effective risk hedging choice that, until recently, was not available to investors. Generally the contracts are structured as a swap arrangement with one party to the swap receiving a return that follows the IPD index in exchange for another return. Normally, this other return has been specified as LIBOR plus a fixed margin but, at the beginning of 2008, the basis of pricing property SWAPS in the UK was changed to a simple fixed margin. A report by the IPF summarises the factors that influence pricing on swap contracts (IPF Pricing Property Derivatives: An Initial Review 2006). However, property derivatives traders have also asserted that direct property investment cannot be hedged and on this basis property SWAPS should be priced according to the performance expectations of the underlying asset class and its index. The goal of this research proposal is to extract information on the capital growth estimates implied by the prices on the swap contracts. Using historical capital growth outcomes and historical swap price data, the implied growth estimates can be calculated and their forecast accuracy evaluated. This could also be compared to the capital growth estimated implied by the IPF consensus forecasts.""
Lundström, Stellan, and Christina Gustafsson. "Market Valuation Based on Discounted Cash Flow Analysis - Consistency in Assumptions." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The technical discussion about consistency and the meaning of different parameters in income-based methods for market valuations is basically the same as 30 ñ 40 years ago. At that time focus was on models named Ellwood and Inwood and different kind of residual models. Discounted cash flow analysis (DCF) is a modern technique for market valuation, which is widely used in the Swedish market and the dominating valuation method for the Swedish property index. The resent discussion about the use of DCF is about how different parameters should be interpreted in relation to each other. That is the same kind of discussion as 40 years ago. The main content is a survey based on a unique data set with input data and results from some xx 000 DCF valuations conducted for the Swedish property index between 1997 and 2007. All critical DCF assumptions about rents, vacancies, operation and maintenance, investments are captured in a database. The finding is that all DCF parameters to some extent are biased in relation to each other and in relation to the actual outcome from the rental market and property management. The valuers have developed standardized levels and relations between parameters that by experience results inan accurate market value.
Crosby, Neil, Colin Lizieri, and Patrick McAllister. "Means, Motive and Opportunity? Disentangling Client Influence on Performance Measurement Appraisals." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. There is a longstanding body of literature that discusses the potential for clients to influence the outcome of the property appraisal process. In the market downturn of 2007-9, it is clear from a number of practitioner conferences and articles that some market participants such as investment agents or fund managers are sceptical about the ability of real estate appraisers to produce valuations that record ad reflect accurately the timing and extent of market price changes (see, for example, EG Capital, 2008; IPE Real Estate, 2009) It is also apparent from the same sources that different types of investors may have different motivations to attempt to influence appraisers. For example, due to their requirement to provide liquidity, open-ended real estate funds have major incentives to ensure that the appraisals of their property assets accurately reflected current market levels. Evidence of runs on the funds in Germany in 2006 and the UK in 2007/2008 can be partly attributed to perceptions of over valuation of the units. As a result, their major motivation is to ensure that appraisals reflected current market conditions. On the other hand, closed-ended funds, investment institutions and REITs/property companies, who did not have similar pressures to meet investor redemptions might to be much more resistant to downward adjustment in valuations without strong supporting evidence from transactions. In order to shed some light on the ability of clients to influence the outcome of their appraisals, in this paper, using data from IPD for the UK universe and with a particular focus on the latter half of 2007, we analyse the patterns in the changes in their appraisal-based returns for different investor types.
Crosby, Neil, Steven Devaney, and Claudia Murray. "Measuring Depreciation in European Office Markets - Just Another Valuation Problem?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In 2005, a research team from the University of Reading and Investment Property Databank funded by the IPF/IPF Education Trust produced a set of depreciation rates for the UK property investment market including rental depreciation rates and the extent of capital expenditure necessary to keep rental depreciation to the reported figures (IPF, 2005). The research was based on definitions and measurement processes developed by Law (2004). This paper extends this work to a number of European office markets (Amsterdam, Paris, Stockholm, Frankfurt, Dublin and London) where long-run data of rental values for both a sample of held property and non-depreciating benchmark data exists. The sample data is held within IPD and the benchmark data is from two firms of international property consultants, CBRE and AtisReal. The research analysed the individual records of over 500 properties held continuously within IPD for 10 years (8 years in Paris) where a full set of rental values and capital expenditure was available for each property. In addition to reporting 10 year rental depreciation and capital expenditure rates using a longitudinal method, the research also analyses different age cohorts and locations within each city to attempt to explain different patterns of depreciation. It also investigates year on year changes in rental values in both the samples and the benchmarks. This final analysis reveals a number of issues including questions concerning the approach to valuations across the different countries adding to the increasing literature in this area.
Maury, Tristan-Pierre. "Measuring Local Individual Housing Returns from a Large Quarterly Transaction Database." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. A new method for estimating total housing returns at a local level is introduced. A unique and comprehensive dataset on housing price transactions for the Paris administrative region over the 1996-2008 period is combined with sets of individual panel data collected by the NSI for a survey on rents and current expenditures used in the compilation of the French CPI (Consumer Price Index). A joint analysis of the determinants of rent level (with current and capital expenditures) and vacancy duration can be carried out with this rich set of data. Physical attributes as well as precise spatial localization are available for both prices and rents database. Hedonic regressions on rents and prices are run and an estimation procedure of the duration of vacancy spells is proposed. This information can be used to produce by imputation an estimate of the total (capital and cash flow) returns of each individual property. The huge size of the transaction price data base enables an accurate measurement of total returns for the Paris housing market. In particular, this approach does not suffer from the ìsmoothingî problem that occurs with valorisation based real estate returns indexes. Finally, the spatial and temporal profiles of returns are explored and an empirical analysis of idiosyncratic risk, with a breakdown of the specific contributions of price, rents and vacancy risks, is performed.
Bartke, Stephan, and Riemund Schwarze. "Mercantile Value Reduction: Accounting for Stigma on Contaminated Land in Germany." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The clean-up and re-use of contaminated land is a risky endeavour for many reasons. The clean-up may be incomplete so that some pollution goes undetected. Some substances in the ground may be unknown to be pollutants at the time of the clean-up process but turn out to be such later on. Areas may be completely clean but yet suffer a depressed market value because of ëstigmaí, i.e. the psychological fear that some negative impact or remaining cost may appear even though a proper site clean-up had been conducted. The phenomenon of stigma on contaminated land has been widely debated in the United States but received little scholarly attention in Europe ñ despite the fact that accounting for stigma is a legally approved best practice of appraisal in European countries. This paper surveys the German approach for the accounting of stigma on contaminated land and proposes a risk scoring method of accounting based on a survey among German appraisers and a study of sales practices of the Brandenburgische Boden GmbH ñ an East German property conversion company in charge of revitalising 22000 ha of lands formerly used by the Russian army in Germany.
rn, Jessica Ö., Galith Nadbornik, and Anna Liisa Lindholm. "Methods for Evaluating Office Occupiersí Needs and Preferences." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Corporate occupiers are among the most important interest group in the real estate business. Property sectorís whole value network: e.g. developers, investors and service providers are depended on the occupier organizations as well as their needs and preferences. In order to understand towards which direction the market is going, what new product to develop and which service should be maintained, ended or created, the key players in the business need to have a clearer view on the profile of their users and occupiers needs and preferences. This paper aims to investigate which methods are used by the property sector companies such as investors, developers, consultants and service providers in order to identify and evaluate their current and potential clientsí needs and preferences regarding workplace from the physical, virtual and social aspects. We also suggest other methods to be added to the list and offer ideas on methods, they could be using for different purposes / measures. Based on theme interviews with selected Finnish corporations and multidisciplinary literature review; the different kinds of methods for evaluating the space itself are investigated and presented. The paper presents an efficient and relevant classification of the methods, with a matrix form to summarize the findings and gives the final recommendation of the usability of different methods based on the findings. These recommendations emphasize and suggest which methods are to be used in order to capture various elements of workplace, on the physical but also virtual and social aspects.
Santovito, Rogerio Fonseca, and João da Rocha Lima, Jr.. "Mind-Sets Towards Real Estate Risk: A Comparison Between Brazilian and German Institutional Investors." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper is part of a wider research project, conducted by the Real Estate Research Group, whose main objective is to provide theoretical basis and a methodology for institutional investors to properly evaluate the role of real estate assets in their investment portfolios. It gives some evidence regarding the impact that the recent crisis on global financial markets and, more specifically, the reflexes on real estate markets, might have had on institutional investors and on their investment decision-support systems. The recent evolution of the Brazilian economical scene propitiated the occurrence of three events whose visibility crossed the limits of the Real estate markets, with repercussions in the whole national financial market: [i] the concession to Brazil, by major international agencies of risk classification, of a sovereign risk classification that put it into the Investment Grade category. Therefore, international investors would have larger statutory freedom to address their investments to Brazil. [ii] the existence of margins, within regulatory limits, to increase the percentile of the institutional investors' participation in real estate assets. In Brazil, the portions destined to the investments in real estate assets, for institutional investors, are proportionally small. For instance, although the limit specified by the current regulation is of 8% of the total investment portfolio, the participation of Brazilian pension funds in real estate assets is now in 2,7% of the portfolio. [iii] the recent movement of capital openings (IPO's), mergers and acquisitions of real estate companies. This brought a new reality, in the sense that never before such a big availability of resources for investment in real estate markets was verified. Because of the income of new resources, there was a need of develop new projects in a very superior scale to which was been observed, and there was a sudden increase in the offer of new investment projects. In this context, in the end of 2008, the global financial crisis reached the country and the investments in real estate suffered strong retraction, with projects being canceled and companies that opened the capital having to seriously review the guidance previously emitted. It is already glimpsed that the dynamic balance between offer and demand for real estate products is losing temper quickly, imposing a new pattern of competitiveness in real estate markets. However, the pension funds managers already indicate that there is a need to be more aggressive in the portfolio composition, including real estate assets with more intensity. As so, if on one side the pension funds can increase the percentile of resources invested in real estate, on the other hand, an increasing of the markets competition is expected, and also an increase in the dispute for good investment opportunities. This new level of competitiveness requires, on the side of the institutional investors, a significant evolution in their investment processes, inducing an improvement in the practices of analysis and management of real estate assets investments. This implicates in a necessary evolution in the instruments until today, being therefore reasonable to suppose that new methodologies for evaluation of investments will be needed, as well as innovative instruments to support portfolio management. For that reason, as an initial step in this process, took place the present research, whose purpose was to identify which were the factors that the investors recognize as current of their decision making support systems, and try to propose adjustments in order to prevent or to mitigate risks. Therefore, it was looked for to elaborate a questionnaire to treat structural subjects on the process of real estate investment decision-making, and not of theoretical subjects on concepts of the decision theory. In order to the results went comparable to those of other studies, it was used as reference the work of Pfnuer and Armonat (Immobilienkapitalanlage institutioneller Investoren: Risikomanagement und Portfolioplanung. Arbeitspapier n∫26. Universit‰t Hamburg. 2001). In this work, the authors accomplished a wide survey with institutional investors of Germany, and the results were made available and systematized, making possible excellent conditions for the accomplishment of comparative analyses. This way, after an analysis of the documentation of the original research accomplished in Germany, the formulation began from the questionnaire to be applied in Brazil, mainly the classification of the factors that can affect the performance of real estate investments. In general terms, these factors are classified in structural characteristics of specific project (Strukturmerkmale), and in the evolution of the general conditions of the environment (Rahmenbedingungen) which affects investment projects. The questionnaire was sent through major institutional investors' associations, and a good participation in the phase-pilot was obtained. Until the present moment, the results indicate a good acceptance of the questionnaire, not being necessary significant adaptations to the Brazilian market. That facilitates the future comparative analysis to be accomplished until May of 2009. It is expected that this research will benefit both the corporate and academic community, with respect to identification of influence factors that can be used to subsidize investment politics and the development of decision support systems that incorporate the specificities of the real estate assets.
Kashyap, Anil, James Berry, Jim Berry, and Stanley McGreal. "Mobility Energy Use for Different Residential Urban Patterns - A Case of Middle Tier City in India." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. A quantitative research was undertaken to calculate the energy use in mobility in two residential neighbourhoods having distinct urban form characteristics in a middle tier city in India. The research considered four key attributes of mobility: mode of travel, trip distances, trip frequency and socio-economic characteristics of households. The paper presents the methodological approach adopted in the research and discusses the results for energy use patterns for key activity nodes in planned (i.e. structured) and unplanned (i.e. organic or unstructured) neighbourhoods. Research outcome suggest that unplanned neighbourhood has lower energy use and shows greater potential to be more sustainable compared to planned neighbourhoods.
Van der Vlist, Arno. "Modeling Urban Housing Market Dynamics." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "This paper addresses the interplay between immigration and housing market dynamics in Israel. The case of Haifa offers a typical non-controlled experiment on how demographic shocks and associated changes in housing demand affect the housing market. The specific pattern offers the opportunity to measure the effect of a large, sudden, incidental and unanticipated shock not analyzed in earlier studies. The number of inhabitants rose in the 1990s to 250,000 with about 66,000 immigrants. The aim of this paper is to analyze how the housing market absorbed the demographic shock. We analyze whether demographics and house prices are co-integrated and address the following questions: Does housing demand by immigrants make house prices peak? How do real price dynamics evolve? Do price dynamics vary across submarkets? Do submarketsí prices converge or diverge? The data analyzed cover housing transactions in Haifa between January 1989 and June 1999 and come from a mortgage database. The data include information on over 7000 transactions with the date of transaction, transaction price, mortgage type, size of the apartment, and location. In the empirical analysis we construct a hedonic price index by tract and by year to investigate the impact of immigration on house price dynamics. We model the price index for 34 tracts over 11 years as a ADL model with its one-period lag, the logarithms of the current number of immigrants into Israel, current building volumes in Israel, size and the proportion of mortgages made available by the public sector.""
Postila, Mikael, Arhi Kivilahti, and Kauko Viitanen. "Modelling the Effect of a New Large Shopping Centre in Helsinki Metropolitan Area." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The final objective is to figure out the local effects of new large shopping centres on retail shopping habits, socio-economic structures and retail real estate rental values on neighbouring areas. Other area of interest is lead-lag relationship between population and retail sales. This study is conducted as a sub-project of Helsinki University of Technology, Tampere University of Technology and Turku School of Economics research project KOKKKA. In this paper we test the available data as well as our methodological approaches. For this purpose we have selected two recently built large shopping centres in Helsinki Metropolitan Area, namely Sello (GLA 85,000sqm) in Lepp‰vaara region and Kamppi (GLA 35,000sqm) in Helsinki city centre. Our dataset comprises of a time series of retail sales data of individual retail outlets, sosio-demographic and economic data from the Finnish Statistics office and KTI Finland rental benchmarking data. Data is geocoded into GIS system in which we will perform an econometric analysis on the relationship of our variables of interest before and after a case shopping centre is established. Also we are will calculate spatial correlations over time between retail shopping and population.
Vermiglio, Carlo. "Municipal Real Estate Management - A Conceptual Framework for Italian Municipalities." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "In recent years, local Governments were affected by several lacks of functioning, mainly related to the absence of strategic approaches, unclearness in the distribution of public resources, external pressures that influenced decision making processes (i.e. decreasing national contributions, financial constraints, increasing expectations from citizens). In this context, the real estate management has become a key resource for municipalities which are pressured in the attempt to develop effective and sustainable policies, match the expectation of duly accountability, face a limitation in resources. The Italian Public Sector, and municipalities in particular, constantly highlighted a low interest and a limited understanding of the level, features and value of the portfolio of the assets owned. Notwithstanding the experiences and the principles applied in other countries (Sweden, UK, France), the first evidences from Italian municipalities asset management, did not seem to rigorously link to any theoretical framework, nor to the management tools successfully applied elsewhere. This research starts from the Italian experience of municipal real estate management and aims to focus and outline those principles and theoretical frameworks which steered local Governments in the attempt of effectively managing municipal assets. The paper then compares the Italian experience with the conceptual frameworks adopted in the European countries mentioned above, in order to find out similarities, differences, strength and weakness of the diverse real estate management strategies and tools. In order to answer these questions, this work will use an empirical analysis based on a multiple case study of six Italian cities, (i.e. those with more than 500.000 inhabitants) which are currently involved in those strategic processes. The findings of this analysis will help to enhance the understanding of public managers of those key factors that lead to an effective real estate decision making process.""
Nordlund, Bo. "Need for Disclosure Regarding Property Valuations in Financial Reports According to IFRS." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Applying a historical cost accounting (HCA) concept in property companies led on many occasions to a situation where everyone knew that the figures in balance sheets and income statements were wrong from a market perspective, but the analysts knew how the figures had arisen. Applying a fair value accounting (FVA) concept has led to a situation, on many occasions, where almost everyone believes that the figures in balance sheets and income statements accurately and fairly reflect reality, whereas few have sufficient knowledge how these figures have arisen. Appraisal of property is a complex issue. An important conclusion from the research reported in this paper is that disclosure regarding applied methods, significant assumptions in property valuations and statements about the connections between appraised values and market evidence needs refinement in financial reports, according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). As the uncertainty in property valuations cannot be removed, it has to be managed. Providing explicit disclosure about valuations is one important way to manage this issue by reducing the gap of information asymmetry between those who perform valuations and those who are users of financial statements. Providing high quality disclosure on these issues would make analysis and the application of individual judgement by users of financial reports far easier. Findings reported in this paper implies that many companies have not so far found the right balance between cost and benefits regarding what amount of disclosure would be appropriate on this issue in financial reports.
van de Wetering, Jorn. "Occupier Perceptions of Sustainability." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. There is a hesitance in the property industry to actively pursue the interests of sustainability. Property industry stakeholders blame each other for the lack of development, construction and investment in more sustainable buildings. Occupiers are the consumers or end users of real estate and may therefore be regarded as the market drivers of demand. They are central to the sustainability agenda. This paper investigates the importance of property and sustainability issues for office occupiers from various organisations in a typical UK city. The research focuses on buildings of 10,000 square feet or more that have been constructed in Bristol over the past 50 years. These buildings are located in the city centre and on out-of-town business parks. In late 2008 a questionnaire was sent out to organisations that were occupying these buildings to ask them about their attitude towards several sustainability issues This paper explores the results of this questionnaire by analysing the views of Bristol office occupiers on sustainability, the importance to them of various sustainability issues and the perceived impact of different sustainability drivers. The willingness of office occupiers to pay more for offices that possess green building features is also investigated. The results are set against existing literature and findings and placed into context. Gaps between the perceived and the actual requirements of office occupiers are addressed. The paper discusses a series of common misconceptions about occupiers that currently pose significant barriers in moving the sustainability agenda forward.
de la Camp, Dorothee. "Opportunities of Sustainable Real Estate Redevelopment." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Sustainability and Green Buildings are the key words in the discussion of future orientated properties. Even the EXPO REAL, which is a ground-breaking and important International Commercial Property Exposition, attracts with the headline ìSustainability and real estateî last year. Therefore it is shown, that this subject becomes more important and of course split views which are heating up discussions about the future of properties. In case of old commercial buildings it is either the question to demolish or to refurbish them. In Frankfurt, Germany, Europeís greatest refurbishment of a commercial building is taking place at the moment and will create one of the most eco-friendly high-rise buildings in the world. Overall this refurbishment will become a leading property in the sustainability sector. In this session an example will be given on how an office building can be redeveloped and which steps have to be taken to reduce the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the building by at least 50 per cent. Implemented during the refurbishment is a multiple measure to save energy and not only costs, but to reduce the required heating energy by 67 per cent. Suffering from the delusion only users can influence the CO2 emission of a property, also the building itself is responsible for its emission. Therefore the use of renewable energies, technical building intelligence, fire prevention and protection, energy saving and of course the efficient use of all kind of resources are just a few items to guarantee ideal working conditions and to make a significant contribution to protect the environment in the long term.""
Pauli, Karin Staffansso. "Organizational Change and Human Resource Management in the Real Estate Sector." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Erol, Isil, and Özgenay Cetinkaya. "Originating Long-Term Fixed-Rate Mortgages In Developing Economies New Evidence from Turkey." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Lind, Hans. "Ownership Changes and Efficiency on the Commercial Real Estate Market: A Qualitative Analysis of the Development in Sweden." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009.

"During the last ten years there has been dramatic changes in the ownership of commercial real estate in Sweden. This development has lead to a number of different discussions. One question is why Sweden has been so interesting and typical answer is that the market is comparatively transparent and that the liquidity is good. The focus in this article is however if these changes can be explained from an efficiency perspective. If we look at the world from a neo-institutionalist transaction cost perspective we should expect that more rational structures replaces a less rational structure. The buyers are obviously willing to pay more than the sellers demand: the properties are worth more to the buyers than they were for the sellers and on the most general level this should imply that the buyers in some way can get """"more"""" out of the properties. The question is then if it possible to find such rational factors behind the ownership or whether they seem to be driven by other factors. The current financial crises can be expected to lead to new patterns of ownership changes and can therefore be especially interesting to try to sum-up the development in the decade before this crisis."

Borg, Lena. "Performance Contracts and Construction Quality." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Mahamud, Nurbaity Aqmar, and Maziah Ismail. "Performance Measurement System of Housing Developers Based on House Buyers' Satisfaction in Johor Bahru." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Since the last decade, both public and private developers are the major contributor to the housing development in Johor Bahru. However, the quality of houses delivered is still far from the buyersí expectation. This research therefore, seeks to achieve two objectives. One, to measure the house buyers satisfaction on the quality of completed housing unit delivered by developers; and two, to measure the performance of housing developers using the star rating system. Hence, the focus of this research mainly focuses on the house buyersí satisfaction on quality of houses as well as services provided by the developers. In this research, questionnaires are distributed to house buyers in Johor Bahru in order to gather information of developersí background as well as respondentsí profile. In addition, the questionnaire is also used as an instrument to determine the satisfaction of house buyer on the performance respectively the housing developers. SPSS is used to analyze the primary data collected in which the finding will be used as the basis to measure the developerís performance. Finally, a performance measurement system for housing developers constructed based on the star rating system.
Tomperi, Ilkka. "Performance of Private Equity Real Estate Funds." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The study will investigate the performance of private equity real estate funds. Using a large global sample of value_added and opportunistic private real estate funds, we study the fund and sponsor related factorsí correlation with fund performance. These factors include the size of the fund, the size and maturity of the fund manager and the number of predecessor funds raised by the fund manager. We will also try to identify trends in fund performance and the growth of the fund sizes as well as the timing of the fundraising. While private equity real estate investing should be countercyclical, the fundraising is typically positively correlated with the performance of the underlying investment marketsí returns i.e. more and larger funds have been raised during times when property prices have already increased while the level of fundraising has dropped after falls in capital values. The best performing vintages have thus been those raised during times of distress and limited competition. Evidence from private equity buy_out funds has also shown that better performing fund managers are likely to raise follow_on funds and often larger funds than poorly performing fund managers. There is also evidence that top performing funds do not grow proportionally as much as the average funds according to Kaplan and Schoar (2003). As many institutional investors have special programs to invest with first time managers or so called emerging fund managers, we also seek further evidence on how the performance of real estate funds has emerged from the first time fund to successor funds and are the same findings true in real estate funds that are previously reported in buy_out funds.""
Song, Han-Suck. "Pooling of Resources in Housing Development Through Strategic Alliances: Theoretical Framework and Options for the Swedish Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Since the early 1980s there has been a large growth in strategic alliances between organizations in many different branches and industries. One major motivation for organizations to establish strategic alliances is to reach sustainable competitive advantages in rapidly changing environments in combination with heightened level of uncertainty. Based on the general literate on strategic alliances, we discuss how housing developers and other actors involved in the development process may realize the large number of potential benefits of alliance activity. From the perspective of housing development in Sweden, we identify specific advantages of forming alliances such as cost leadership, differentiation and risk management. Developers can establish a different type of strategic alliances with large number of partnering organizations in order to pool both financial and non-financial resources. Basically developers can form two types of alliances: (1) non-equity or contractually based alliances, and (2) equity-based alliances. Contractually based alliances may involve learning, knowledge and marketing alliances between a developer and local public authorities, land owners, contractors, professional service firms like architects, planning consultants and estate agents, as well as other developers. In order to pool financial resources or reduce financial risks, developers can establish equity joint ventures with capital providers, landowners, and institutional buyers of the completed building. Furthermore capital providers can syndicate investments. We also recognize that in many cases a combination of formal contracts and a broader informal alliance create advantages for both parties. It is well-known that a large number of strategic alliances fail: upside performance risks comes at a cost of higher relationships risks. Therefore we also discuss the potential pitfalls of collaborative arrangements that the partnering firms may face, and how such relationship risks may be mitigaged.
Zaleczna, Magdalena, and Rafal Wolski. "Potentiality of Real Estate in Polish Pension Funds Portfolios." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Pension funds are interested first of all in long-term low-risk investments and their portfolios are required to be diversified. Having at their disposal regular long-term contributions the funds are trying to invest the capital in the best possible way from the point of view of their future beneficiaries. The ways of capital allocation are also critical in terms of the entire economy, as a constant flow of financial resources provided by pension funds stimulates its recipients. There is an important question about the construction of pension funds efficient portfolios. Despite the OECD Guidelines and results of research studies Polish pension fundsí legal investment limits exclude the direct investment in real estate. This solution decreases the diversification potentiality. The investment regulation has produced investment portfolios consisting mainly of Polish stocks and bonds. Authors analyze the Polish pension funds portfolios focusing on risk and return level. The aim of the study is an attempt to find the answer to an important question about the results of hypothetical adding of real estate to the pension funds portfolios.""
Janssen, Ingrid. "Power Positions in Out-of-Town Retail Development Decisions." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Location decisions are determined by a variety of underlying social and political processes. Also decisions related to the location of new retail developments depend on individual social and political behavior of the decision makers. Changes in Dutch retail planning policies contributed to the fact that these decisions depend more often on these individual policies. In the past, the Dutch government had a strong hand in the determination of the program and location of new retail locations. In the present, however, the national policy document on spatial planning imposes no restrictions for retail organizations to settle on ìout of townî locations. As a result, there is more room for negotiation between developers, retailers and local governments. At the level of local decision making these agents meet each other and decide on the location and programs of new retail developments, taking into account each others viewpoints and those from other interest groups. In this paper behavioral aspects related to retail development decisions are explored. The paper starts with an introduction on the changed policy in retail planning that is the origin of the growing importance of negotiation processes between public and private parties. Then the behavioral aspects are analyzed by reconstructing decision making processes of two (Dutch) development initiatives. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on how power positions affect the decision whether to built new out-of town shopping centers or extent existing facilities.
Donner, Sascha. "Practice of Risk Management in International Real Estate Investment Vehicles." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. A total number of 50 international investors (e.g. public listed real estate companies, investment funds, private equity investors, pension funds) took part in this survey. Participants come from 16 different nations, with Germany accounting for 62 % of all participants. The average company has more than 250 employees. The few recent empirical studies ñ Hyss, S. (2006), Dr. Peter & Company (2007) and Schwenzer, J. (2008) - show that risk management in the real estate sector is lacking behind other industries. The present study is the first carried out on an international basis. Based on the empirical study, the risk management of the different investment vehicles is assessed in detail in seven chapters. First of all, the structure of investment vehicles and the integration of risk management in the corporate structure are analysed. As a second step, the risk management process composed of risk identification, risk evaluation and analysis, risk steering, risk reporting and risk controlling is discussed. In the next section, risk management methods are analysed according to their relevance and importance for individual investors. Of particular interest are the methods used for risk identification, risk reporting and risk evaluation. In this connection, the possibilities and restrictions of the Modern Portfolio Theory and of property derivatives for risk reduction purposes are critically examined. Investors were asked to rank seven of the most important risks affecting real estate investments according to their relevance for the specific investor. A separate chapter discusses the use of ratings in the real estate business and the investorís estimation of the quality of existing rating agencies and specific real estate agencies. In the last section investors lay out their view on the necessity of adjusting risk management as a consequence of the current real estate crisis.
Hoesli, Martin, Steven Bourassa, and Eva Cantoni. "Predicting House Prices with Spatial Dependence: A Comparison of Alternative Methods." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper compares alternative methods for taking spatial dependence into account in house price prediction. We select hedonic methods that have been reported in the literature to perform relatively well in terms of ex-sample prediction accuracy. Because differences in performance may be due to differences in data, we compare the methods using a single data set. The estimation methods include simple OLS, a two-stage process incorporating nearest neighborsí residuals in the second stage, geostatistical, and trend surface models. These models take into account submarkets by adding dummy variables or by estimating separate equations for each submarket. Submarkets are defined at different levels of aggregation. We conclude that a geostatistical model with disaggregated submarket variables performs best.
Serrano, Camilo, and Martin Hoesli. "Predicting Securitized Real Estate Returns: Financial and Real Estate Factors vs. Economic Variables." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Securitized real estate returns have traditionally been forecasted using economic variables. However, no consensus exists regarding the variables to use. Financial and real estate factors have recently emerged as alternative forecasting variables that proxy for the set of economic variables that should be useful in forecasting securitized real estate returns. Therefore, a question that arises is whether the predictive ability of the two sets of variables differ. This paper employs fractional cointegration analysis to identify whether long-run nonlinear relations exist between securitized real estate and the two sets of forecasting variables. Fractionally Integrated Error Correction Model (FIECM) forecasts are used in a trading strategy to compare the forecasting ability of the two sets of variables. Empirical analyses are conducted using data for the U.S., the U.K., and Australia. The results show that financial and real estate factors generally outperform economic variables in forecasting securitized real estate returns. The latter is supported by the fractional cointegration analysis in which long memory (long-range dependence) is generally found between securitized real estate and stocks, bonds, and direct real estate.
de Wit, Erik, Peter Englund, and Marc Francke. "Price and Transaction Volume in the Dutch Housing Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Mandell, Svante. "Prices and Quantities in a Climate Policy Setting." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. EU aspires on being a forerunner in adopting a stringent climate policy. The present paper takes its departure in two observations from the current EU policy. First, the EU has adopted a dual approach in that there is a trading scheme, the EU ETS, covering CO2 emissions from the energy intensive industry, while the remaining emitters, e.g., housing and transportation, are subject to emission taxes. Second, the targets are quantitatively phrased, i.e., there is an upper limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions. Both this observations are of interest under the realistic assumption of abatement costs being uncertain. Then the dual approach is likely not to be ex post cost effective. Furthermore, from earlier literature it is known that an emissions tax outperforms a tradable permit scheme due to the nature of the green house effect. Thus, quantitative targets, which are easier fulfilled by means of a trading scheme, stand in contrast to taxes being the preferable policy instrument. The present paper addresses, by the means of a stylized model, the two observations and shows when and why a dual approach is optimal from an efficiency point of view given an upper limit on total emissions. What determines the characteristics of the optimal solution, e.g., size of the trading vs. taxed sector, tax levels and allocation to the trading sector, is studied in some detail.
Lim, Lay Cheng Jasm, Terry Grissom, and James R. DeLisle. "Property Arbitrage Potential Between the UK and USA." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Practitioners and forecasters are suggesting that the economic turnaround in the UK will lag the market rebound in the USA. This suggests arbitrage opportunities between the two markets. This arbitrage potential is further highlighted based on the literature by Hendershott and MacGregor (2005a, 2005b), which suggest that the behavioural of UK investor is rational in comparison to the US investor which is irrational. The arbitrage implications are further amplified by contradictory findings of Chen, Hudson-Wilson and Nordby (2004) of rational US investment behaviour. This study investigates the pricing of property asset in the US and UK with the potential of arbitrage effect between the markets. The findings are then used to specify the differences in lags as a signal of sequential market changes.
Dunse, Neil, Colin Jones, and Michael White. "Property Booms and Busts: Cycles or Bubbles." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The classic property market cycle is conceptualised as a short term adjustment process generated by the interaction of occupation demand, the business cycle, the national credit cycle and supply lags consequent on the development cycle. Within the model yields are a function of the required rate of return for property and expected rental growth. However this model is under_specified as it fails the reality test in the sense that yields are very much also influenced by exogenous factors such as current returns from property and relative returns in other sectors. Dunse et al (2007) demonstrate the importance of the variation in investment funds over time in influencing commercial property yields/capital values. The ëcredit crunchí has highlighted the role of this exogenous factor and emphasises the importance of availability of investment funds to underpin a property boom. A key influence on investment funds, and hence capital values, is the changing perspective on risk. In the aftermath of a bust the euphoria that has driven risk taking is replaced by a more conservative approach to risk assessment engulfed by fear and this in turn slows the recovery. In as much as the cavalier attitude to risk in a boom cannot be justified by rental trends, a major component of the upturn in capital values is actually a ëbubbleí. This paper seeks to identify the components of property boom/busts distinguishing between what can be described as the endogenous component attributed to the time lags of a property cycle and the exogenous influences that can loosely be described as speculative bubble effects. It simulates property yield movements based on rental growth distinguishing between these endogenous and exogenous components in UK cities over the period 1981_2006. As part of the analysis it presents the implied rental growth associated with yields at different points in boom/busts.
Steininger, Bertram. "Property Derivatives in the Strategic Asset Allocation." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Real estate investments have attracted attention as an asset class with high stability of their values, opportunity to hedge against inflation, specific risk-return characteristics, and low co-movements with traditional stock and bond markets. The integration of property investment vehicles to a stock and bond portfolio should ameliorate the performance of an until-then domestic oriented portfolio on the long run. Various studies ascertain that low comovements could also be observed among international stock, bond, and real estate markets. Consequently, international property investments would additionally improve the international diversification potential. Most studies arrive at the conclusion that 15 to 30 percent of a mixed-asset portfolio should be allocated to real estate due to the weak positive or negative significant correlation with stocks and bonds. Some studies analyze ñ using the co-integration method ñ the relationship among stocks, real estate, bonds, and T-bills and conclude that stocks have an inverse long-run relationship with real estate. Though, this procedure is also afflicted with some drawbacks. Direct investments in property assets are burdened with high transaction costs, large lot size, low liquidity, tying-up of management resources, and the need of a local market expertise. In addition, fluctuating exchange rates offer an additional exposure for private, commercial or institutional investors who want to diversify among different currency regions. Indirect property investments can solve some of the above-mentioned disadvantages of direct property investments. REITs, non-listed Real Estate Vehicles unlisted funds, either open-end or closed-end, and property derivatives are under consideration for indirect investment vehicles. At a first glance, derivatives would be the best choice from the indirect investment pool to avoid high transaction costs, large lot size, low liquidity, tying-up of management resources, and the need of property and local market expertises. Admittedly, it requires further empirical studies to confirm that by means of derivatives international diversified portfolios provide supplemental diversification benefits. Many studies present new results for diversifying internationally with real estate vehicles, but to a lower extent with derivatives or with limited focus on geographical or contractual application. This paper concentrates on property derivatives and their benefits for an international mixed-asset portfolio. This study approaches the investment vehicles of property derivatives through index certificates. Such financial instruments are basket products based on an index. Certificates give investors exposure to physical property market, real liquidity if continuously traded on a stock exchange, and the possibility of low initial investments. All factors are essential for an efficient market especially for the retail sector. In principle, there are three different index types available, appraisal-based, transaction-based, or indices of quoted property companies or REITs. By the end of 2008, certificates based on property companies or REIT are quite widespread through the easy access to such indices, but as these indices are highly correlated with the stock markets, it is highly questionable whether these underlyings can serve as real estate proxies. The underlying indices are fundamental for the derivative construction and performance. Unfortunately, real estate indices are complicated to calculate compared to other asset classes by virtue of the relative illiquidity and heterogeneity of the underlying assets. However, for an active worldwide real estate derivative market it is necessary to meet the needs of the investors with reliable indices and a bunch of sub-indices of sectors, region, capital, and income indices. There are mainly three dissimilar approaches for real estate index construction to fulfil the requirements of investors as aforementioned. When appraisal-based real estate indices are applied, the return-risk characteristics indicate a higher return and risk than bonds, and a lower return and risks than stocks. When transaction-based indices are applied, the return-risk characteristics generally indicate similar properties in comparison to the appraisal-based index. However, the positive effects decline. The results based on the third approach underestimate the role of direct property in a mixed-asset portfolio and behave in the short run more as stocks than as an alternative investment in order to diversify an investorís portfolio. In order to overcome some of the problems of the traditional Mean-Variance Analysis, a Mean-Shortfall Analysis is adopted in this study. A few studies have applied this concept to real estate. While the theoretical aspects of the downside-risk are well documented in the literature, empirical evidence to which approach superior portfolios are produced has not been convincing. Few studies take similar approaches to compare the mean-shortfall with the mean-variance analysis. However their comparison methods are logically flawed because the two approaches use different risk measures and are not directly comparable. Consequently, we only focus on the downside-risk approach. The optimization approach helps to identify the ex post and ex ante diversification potential of real estate investments in a mixed-asset portfolio and to order various strategies by dint of the stochastic dominance analysis. Currency risk represents a drawback for international diversified investments. Hedging the currency exposure could minimize this problem; indeed this approach is not free of charge and influences the diversification potential. Some authors investigate this issue for international bond and stock markets and conclude significant performance differences for hedged and unhedged portfolios. Furthermore, the diversification potential depends on the reference currency of the investor. Several empirical studies concern with the issue to what extent diversification arises from international investments for investors in different currency regions. Thus, the paper also surveys the diversification potential of a currency hedging strategy using forward contracts with optimal hedge ratios from a euro area investor's point of view. Besides, the typical short selling constraint is abandoned. A long-only portfolio limits investors in their ability to generate performance because they are constrained in their investment decisions to one side. By contrast, active-extension strategies, i.e.~1X0/X0 longshort portfolio, try to increase alpha opportunities by dint of an active portfolio management, while having the same beta net exposure to the market, as the traditional long-only strategy. The leveraged structure of an active-extension portfolio follows the properties of any leveraged portfolio. Admittedly, the gross and net exposure differ. Both exposures of a 1X0 percent leveraged long-only portfolio is 1X0 percent, whereas for a 1X0/X0 portfolio, the gross exposure is 1X0 percent and the net exposure is only 100. Several authors suggest that traditional long-only portfolios could ameliorate their performance with limited short selling strategies and show that the portfolio's efficiency, measured by the information ratio, increases when the long-only constraint is removed. They reasoned that a fully leveraged 200/100 portfolio achieves the highest information ratio and efficiency benefit compared to a long-only portfolio. In this context, more leverage is better. Contrariwise, an increase of X reduces the marginal utility, so that taking transaction costs into account the utility and costs must be traded-off against each other. As a result, the short-percentage typically ranges from 20 to 50 percent, whereas 30 percent seems to be the most widely used in practice. The historical time series for the stock, bond, and real estate derivative markets are collected for the USA, the UK, France, and Germany over the time period of Q1 1998 to Q2 2008. These countries are selected as representatives of the international financial world by virtue of their market capitalization and turnovers. Japan and China are not included in the market due to the lack of reliable historical data. We use the national MSCI for stocks and the Datastream Government Bond indices as proxies for a stock and bond market investment. As we take the perspective of a euro-based investor, the risk-free rate is represented by the 3- months Euro Interbank Offered Rate. For the period prior to the introduction of the Euribor, a weighted average of interbank rates in the member states of the European Monetary Union has been used. The property derivatives are modelled with the aid of IPD indices due to their market coverage. It seems congruously to use the IPD UK Annual Total Return All Property Index for the UK market. IPD also publishes a monthly index that acts as an anchor function for the market price, so that the quarterly adjustments are easy calculable. In the USA, the NCREIF Property Index Comparable serves as the basis of various derivatives. In France and Germany, the IPD French Property Index and the IPD German Property Index, also referred to as Deutscher Immobilien Index, are common underlyings for OTC derivatives. However, the French and German indices are only annually computed. Subsequently, a method of interpolation proves necessary. At a first test optimization, the ex post perspective shows significant diversification benefits through the consideration of real estate certificates in all three portfolio strategies ñ Equally-Weighted Portfolio, the Minimum-Risk Portfolio, and the Tangency Portfolio. The source of these diversification gains is mainly seen in a risk reduction. The additional application of the 130/30 structure and of the optimal currency hedging also brings improvements on an average, based in risk reduction. In the ex ante perspective, the integration of property certificates leads in almost all portfolio strategies to a risk reduction relative to the corresponding stock and bond strategies.
da Rocha Lima, Jr., João, and Cláudio Tavares de Alencar. "Property Development Firm IPOs in Brazil: Was There Overpricing or Not?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Between September/2005 and October/2007, representative companies of Brazilian residential real estate market had adopted the strategy to increase their investment capacity by initial public offer (IPO). The context was favorable for residential real estate production to middle class because of two main factors: first, regarding to better conditions of financing to purchase residential properties promoted by the Brazilian finance system restructure from 2005, and, second, regarding to certainty demand in this market (middle class), considering that the majority of companies had focused on upper class market in order to guarantee the sales resources in the production phase. In this way, to attend the middle-class demand, it was necessary to enhance the investment capacity of the real estate companies. These factors, associated to the good expectations on Brazilian economy scenario as well as the global economy, encouraged the representative companies of Brazilian residential real estate market to increase their investment capacity by IPO, in a short time. The focus of this article is to analyze the quality of the investment in stocks of these Real Estate companies (21 offers were taking into account in the analysis). In order to identify in which expectations these companies supported their decisions to enter in Bovespa with the occurred prices and amounts, were also analyzed the offers correlations against BOVESPA Index (market index). Based on the results, it is possible to conclude that these offers were not supported by validated procedures of pricing, representing just speculative offers.
Bond, Sandy. "Public Attitudes Towards Wind Farms: A Multi-Region Comparison." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The Australian government is supporting the development of renewable energy technology, such as wind power, in its efforts to reduce greenhouse gases in line with the Kyoto agreement. While wind technology offer many advantages property owners have voiced opposition to the siting of wind farms due to concerns over changes in neighborhood aesthetics, noise, loss of bird life, and loss in property values. Such opposition can result in planning permission being declined and a restriction in the ability to meet Kyoto targets. This paper outlines the results of research carried out in Western Australia (WA) 2008 to investigate the attitudes of communities towards the development of wind farms and to seek ways to mitigate the magnitude of opposition and increase the success rate of planning applications. The cities investigated include Albany, Esperance and Denmark on the south coast of WA. The results of this research will be of interest to power companies in helping plan the siting of these. Similarly, property valuers need to understand the valuation implications of wind farms when valuing property in close proximity to these.""
Kippes, Stephan, and Chris Eves. "Public Awareness of ëGreení Residential Property - An empirical survey based on data from New Zealand and Germany." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Over the last few years more stringent environmental laws (e.g. the German ìEnergieeinsparverordnung ENEVî - Energy Performance of Buildings Directive) and soaring energy prices increased the need for the real estate industry to react. Therefore the Property Group at Lincoln University in New Zealand and Nuertingen-Geislingen University in Germany are carrying out research in relation to sustainable housing construction and public awareness of ìgreenî residential property. Part of this research is to gain an understanding of the level of knowledge and importance of these issues to the house buyer and to determine the importance of sustainable housing to the general public. The paper compares data from two different empirical studies; one of studies analyzes the situation in New Zealand, the other is focused on Germany.""
Pfrang, Dominique. "Real Estate Branding Effects: A Neo-Behavioristic Analysis Focusing on Sustainability Certificates." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Bravi, Marina, and Isabella Lami. "Real Estate Development and Economic Change: Integration and/or Specialization? A Survey of Italian Companies." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In line with the economic and financial context in which it operates, real estate development has recently undergone radical changes. It is certainly significant, hence, that the range of firms operating in the building sector in Italy is now extremely varied. Two extremes remain: on the one hand, small companies which often operate exclusively in the construction sector and, on the other, companies which manage large real estate ventures and tend to turn activities into major financial operations. The latter prove that the real estate development does in fact not exist ìoutsideî of the national and international economic and financial system, and that its operators ñ real estate developers and builders ñ are capable of ìevolvingî in order to adapt to change. On the other hand, recent repercussions of the financial crisis on real estate markets, and the related fall in investments and employment in the sector, would seem to support those who maintain that real estate investment is nonetheless still rooted in its own specific risks, the irrational behaviour of its operators, lengthy time frames and its division into sub-markets, defined by product type and location. This work will illustrate the results of a survey carried out among Italian companies adopting new operating strategies. As well as a different use of financial capital ñ e.g. in the use of project financing ñ these procedures propose a integrated real estate development (area identification/negotiation, design, construction, sale and/or asset management). In other words, it is a case of clarifying whether new operating procedures are, in fact, representative of the entire sector, qualitatively and quantitatively speaking, or whether traditional forms of intervention, characterised by low corporate risk and an atomised business structure, actually still coexist with more advanced strategies. Such conditions would be consistent with the sectorís cyclical trend and would not necessarily point to the existence of a backward structure.
K. Singh, Surjit. "Real Estate Development and Management - The Key Concerns of Spatial Planning." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Bilos, Anita. "Real Estate Economy in the Area of Conflict Between Ecology and Economics - The Inauguration of the German Rating System for Sustainable Buildings." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
D’Arcy, Eamonn, and Paloma Taltavull de La Paz. "Real Estate Education in Europe: Some Perspectives on a Decade of Rapid Change." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Over the last decade Europe has witnessed significant changes in the structure and provision of real estate education. A number of obvious developments have taken place: real education in many institutions has migrated from a base in the built environment professions to a business school setting; the number of providers has increased and within this the balance of provision has shifted towards postgraduate modes incorporating both full-time and flexible delivery; the market for graduates has become increasingly dominated by the leading international real estate and financial service firms. This paper seeks to identify the key drivers of change in the characteristics of real estate education in Europe by directly relating these developments to the significant changes which have taken place in the structure of individual European real estate markets. Many of these relate directly to the internationalisation of real estate activities set against a wider process of European integration. In particular, structural changes in European Real estate investment markets and in the characteristics of real estate service providers are examined as key drivers of change in real estate education. Within this analysis issues relating to accreditation at both national and local levels are also considered. As an extension of the analysis the paper explicitly considers the potential impacts of two additional change agents specifically the ëBologna Processí and the ëEuropean Real Estate Society Education Seminar Initiativeí. The paper concludes by assessing the sustainability of the trends identified and examines the extent to which lessons from the European experience are relevant in the context of other regions.
Kakulu, Iyenemi Ibimina, and Frances Plimmer. "Real Estate Education Vs Real Estate Practice in Emerging Economies - A Challenge for Globalization." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The historical, social and cultural norms and systems prevalent in a society tend to shape the need for and therefore the practice of various professional disciplines and real estate education sometimes fails to capture these salient real world issues that affect its practice. In emerging economies, particularly those with a history of colonialism, real estate education is often derived from the tenets of practice obtainable in the countries to which they were once colonies, without careful consideration of the socio-economic, cultural, historical and socio-political differences. Such inappropriate practices gradually metamorphose over time in response to academic and societal pressures, often resulting in a widening gap between academic instruction and professional needs. Education that is based on principles and methods derived from a different business environment and which teaches practices which bear little or no relationship to the needs of local market makes it difficult for graduates to apply their skills in employment without re-training, causing frustration to both employer and employee. In such circumstances, vocational academic education is perceived as irrelevant to the employability of its graduates which undermines both the university sector and the profession itself, and as well as limiting the quality and availability of professional services to the society. In a comparative review of real estate education versus real estate practice in Nigeria and England, our findings show that although real estate education in Nigeria has its roots in the UK-based RICS programme of studies, there has been a gradual transformation and an integration of societal and cultural norms as well as practice methods from other countries. The current practice therefore resembles a hybrid of some sort that is largely subjective depending on the level of professional exposure which the practitioners possess. This paper suggests that efforts to globalize real estate education should retain the over-riding need to supply a local employment market and thus pay serious attention to the different Ñenvironment_ in which practice is most likely to occur. It promotes the importance of Ñemployability_ of graduates and thus the Ñpractice environments_ in real estate education as a basis for curriculum development and calls for the recognition that real estate practice is spatially and competency bound as well as historically and culturally specific. A clearer understanding of these differences within both the education and the professional sectors is necessary to produce more relevant and useful real estate practitioners and thereby enhance the sustainability and globalization processes.
Schätz, Alexander, and Steffen Sebastian. "Real Estate Equities - Real Estate or Equities?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This study examines whether real estate stock indices in the United States and the United Kingdom are predominantly driven by the underlying property markets or by progress on general stock markets. In the process, we abandon the conventional approach of focussing only on the three assets, namely real estate equities, direct real estate and stock indices. Instead, we conduct an analysis which explicitly takes into account the macroeconomic environment in each country. Based on vector error correction models (VECM) and variance decompositions, we detect a significantly stronger linkage among the real estate assets compared to the equity assets in the long run. However, despite these long-term similarities, we also identify differences concerning the linkage to the respective economic environment. Accordingly, we find a close nexus of the US real estate market with the real economy, while the financial market indices in the UK are predominantly focused on each other.
Rehring, Christian. "Real Estate in a Mixed-Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In this article, three often mentioned special characteristics of the real estate asset market ñ high transactions costs, lack of liquidity, and return predictability ñ are addressed in analyzing the role of UK commercial real estate investments in a mixed asset portfolio. Due to return predictability the annualized twenty-year standard deviation of both stock returns and real estate returns amounts to about 60% of the one-year risk. An illiquidity risk premium accentuates this result with regard to real estate. There are also considerable horizon effects in correlations. Over investment horizons between five and twenty years, and over a wide range of return targets, the weight allocated to real estate is between 13% and 87%. The allocation increases with the investment horizon, because the aspects of transactions costs, illiquidity and return predictability all make real estate more favorable for long-term investors. In the long run, real estate appears to be a very good inflation hedge. Traditional meanñvariance analysis, i.e. ignoring return predictability, transaction costs and illiquidity, can be very misleading.
Kask, Kaia, and Ene Kolbre. "Real Estate Investment Market Perspectives in Estonia: A Survey Analysis." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Since 2008 the world has witnessed a remarcable recession in global financial and capital markets, being the concequence of the subprime crisis emerging in August 2006. As Estonia is exposed to global market trends through the open economy, the problems at first started with the real estate market downturn since 2007, caused largely by the growth in interest rates and the tightened lending policy of commercial banks. Being quite a small country, the problems emerged quite quickly and severely and by now has moved on to other economic sectors. The current paper summarizes the Estonian real estate market development trends so far, discusses about the reasons of market downturn and gives as objective assessment as possible for the nearest future trends. The main attention is given to the potential of the real estate investments in the region, bringing out the various opinions of practitioners in the market. The aim of the paper is to discuss the main issues concerning real estate investment market perspec-tives in Estonia within the current economic situation. The following research tasks have been set up to achieve the aim: 1) to give a brief overview of macroeconomic state in Estonia; 2) to analyze the current state of real estate sectors in Estonia: rents, yields, impact of capital market, other relevant data; 3) to present the findings of in-depth questionnaire conducted among various real estate practi-tioners in the region; 4) to draw conclusions and make suggestions.
Maier, Gunther, and Shanaka Herath. "Real Estate Market Efficiency: A Survey of Literature." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In this paper we discuss the question whether or not the real estate market is efficient. We define market efficiency and the efficient market hypothesis as it had been developed in the literature on financial markets. Then, we discuss the empirical evidence that exists concerning the efficiency or inefficiency of financial markets, usually seen as the reference markets as far as market efficiency is concerned. In a separate section we turn to the real estate market. There we define the real estate market and discuss various aspects that are decisive for the efficiency of that market. The theoretical issues that have received the most attention are information efficiency, and (in-) efficiencies related with the market fundamentals. Accordingly, we survey the studies that have investigated the relation between information and the real estate market efficiency, and provide a review of the studies that test the weak and the semi-strong forms of market efficiency. Additionally, the real estate market efficiency is looked at from a market fundamentals point of view as well. These tests of efficiency include the studies that examine the cyclical behaviour, volatility and dispersion of real estate prices, and real estate price bubbles. Several papers that test the positive-feedback hypothesis related to price dispersion are also included. As it turns out, the result found in the literature is inconclusive. Despite strong evidence of mechanisms distorting the real estate market at the micro level, the market at the aggregate level seems to be surprisingly close to efficient.
Lausberg, Carsten, and Andreas Wiegner. "Real Estate Portfolio Ratings and Market Data." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In recent years the quality of instruments for real estate risk management has greatly improved. External and internal ratings are in the center of this development, but compared to borrower ratings the stage of development is still rather low. In this paper we use a large sample of properties from German open-ended funds to demonstrate which methods are suitable for an external real estate rating. In the first part we place special emphasis on the market data, analyzing which data are available globally, checking their suitability for real estate ratings, and delineating the difficulties of the collection procedure. In the second part the article describes in detail how the market data is used in various kinds of ratingsó quantitative models based on cash flow simulation, qualitative models based on scorings, and mixed-form ratings. We show that a rating of real estate portfolios can greatly benefit from the advances that banks made in their internal ratings-based approaches following the New Basel Capital Accord. But due to several constraints, mainly in the market data, we come to the conclusion that quantitative methods alone are not sufficient (yet) for a holistic view on the risks of a real estate portfolio.
Prinsloo, Hendrik. "Real Estate Securitisation: Viable Method of Finance in South Africa?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Securitisation has long since been an important factor in international finance markets. This finance method that became popular in the United States of America during the early 1980ís is still very much in its infant stages of development in South Africa. The initial objective of this paper is not only to provide an explanation of the mechanics of securitisation but also to evaluate the present development of securitisation in South Africa to determine the level of progress of securitisation as a method of finance. The crux of this paper is however to determine if securitisation can act as a viable alternative to traditional methods of funding property. To obtain an answer to this question the author investigated the current South African legislative environment to establish if it supports securitisation as a property finance tool. The next step involved the evaluation of the different elements of the securitisation framework to establish if real estate securitisation is a viable method of financing real estate in South Africa. Ultimately the author found that except for some limiting conditions, the South African regulatory environment does indeed support real estate securitisation. There is however room for improvement in the existing legislation.
Rad, Alexander, Olof Wahlberg, Peter Ö. hman, and Einar Häckner. "Reconsideration of the Bank Credit Assessment Decision: Theoretical and Practical Issues." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The purpose of this paper is to discuss conceptual issues related to the bank credit assessment decision in the context of current events in the financial markets. To add to the theoretical discussion, a case study of a large Swedish bank will be conducted and data will be captured and then analyzed with the repertory grid technique. Additionally, information will be collected through interviews with about 60 bank managers or bank loan officers to allow statistical analyses. Similarities and differences between groups of bank loan officers (e.g. senior experts and novices) are important to identify in the context of current events. To add validity to this study, a ìco-researchî approach will be used by involving the bank managers and bank loan officers in analyzing and interpreting the results. Attempts will be made to identify any differences in the decision approaches of bank managers and bank loan officers pre- and post- the current financial crisis. The credit assessment decision processes will be examined by focusing on the initial encounter between the applicant and the bank loan officer who generates the first screening of the application. Information will be gathered regarding the identity of information used by the suppliers of credit in order to evaluate loan applications for approval or rejection and how this information can be categorized to enhance comparability between application cases, borrowers and personal attributes for bank loan officers. Theoretically the research rests upon financial theory, institutional theory, structuration, sense-making, accountability and cognitive theory. The conference paper outlines the methods to be used, discusses advantages and limitations with respect to validity and reliability of the methods, and tests the repertory grid technique on one respondent in a pre-study. It is concluded that the planned approach is feasible.""
Parker, David. "REIT Investment Decision Making: A Literature Review." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are now well established as a property investment vehicle in numerous countries around the world. While REITs invest billions of dollars in property, relatively little research has been undertaken into the decision making processes that drive such investment. The paper seeks to review the property literature concerning the investment decision making process in property to identify the range of stages that may be proposed, in theory, to comprise the investment decision making process.""
Tyvimaa, Tanja, and Karen Gible. "Rental Apartment Building for Senior Citizens as An Investment Object in Finland." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The purpose of this paper is to describe business opportunities for real estate investment companies in Finland. This paper focuses on rental apartment buildings for seniors. The research is the case study of the largest national provider of housing services in Finland; VVO. VVO owns approximately 38.000 rental apartments in some 60 municipalities. Almost 90% of VVO¥s rental apartments are located in growth towns and municipalities. In the 21st century, many residential buildings for seniors have been developed and marketed as a ísenior houseí. In this context, a senior house means an accessible residential building which is meant for citizens over 55 years old. Senior houses are not supervised by authorities; thus, types of apartments and service levels vary widely. Senior houses generally have meeting spaces and fitness centers for residents and some of them even have restaurants and nursing staff. On the other hand, there are those that have neither meeting spaces nor services. The study estimates business possibilities of rental apartments for seniors compared to ordinary rental apartments. The study takes into account investments costs, rental revenues and offering of housing services. An attractive living environment of senior tenants is examined, too. The data of the study has been collected by interviews. As a conclusion, the senior houses are profitable investment objects. The market situation of senior houses is sustainable because population in Finland is ageing rapidly. The demand of the senior apartments is steady and tenant relationships are longer than in ordinary rental apartments. The threat is that the good demand and supply involves housing developers which develop senior houses but do not offer any services. It increases the lack of confidence of tenants to the senior house concept.
Ondos, Slavomir, and Gunther Maier. "Residential Housing Market Spatial Dynamics in Central Europe." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The Central European countries have experienced a decade of economic expansion succeeding the transition from previous state-commanded regime. Development of the markets together with subsequent economic integration provoked a fundamental reconstruction within their economies. This paper focuses on the real-estate sector and its response to the economic growth. Specifically, we explore the spatial dynamics of the residential housing market, and develop an empirical model at the regional scale. The research question is whether different regions respond differently to economic growth and how this difference could be explained. The spatiotemporal variation in real housing investment representing the supply side of the market is tested against varying indices that theoretically determine the demand side of the market. The explorative part documents spatiotemporal relationships in the observed levels and dynamic patterns between the real housing investment intensity, two economic variables (unemployment and income), and two demographic variables (natural and migration change) on an annual basis. Techniques employed belong to the framework of global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis. The spatial dynamics model in the second part adds macroeconomic variables that are expected to have a significant impact on the housing market. The spatial regression is estimated by means of ordinary least squares, spatial lag and spatial error models. All procedures are applied for the housing markets in the Czech Republic and in Slovakia for the period 2001-2007.
Yang, Zan. "Residential Investment and Interest Rate: A Nonlinear Analysis in Sweden." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In the traditional model, an increase of interest rate will lead to a decreasing investment level because of decreasing net present values of investment projects. However, when the impact of uncertainty in the presence of irreversibility is considered, the value of waiting is introduced to the model. The investor has ìoptionî to delay an investment decision in order to wait the arrival of new information about market condition. The effect of interest rate on investment could be nonlinear depending on the value of the real options. In this study, I empirically examine the nonlinear effect of interest rate on investment in the Swedish housing market. Markov ñ Switching regression is used to characterize time ñ varying parameters of an error ñ correction model for housing investment. It models a nonlinear regime ñ switching phenomenon to characterize housing investment dynamics within regimes and during the transition between regimes in response to the interest rate volatility.
Hartmann, Steffen, and Andreas Pfnür. "Responsibility for and Performance of Corporate Real Estate Functions - A Comparison of European and North American Companies." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Due to the enormous values and costs, real estate is more and more recognized as an important competitive factor. To tap hidden values, identifying a suitable form of institutionalization and coordination of CREM has been one of the major challenges in many companies over the last years. Besides many other coordination instruments (e.g. standardization of decision making, corporate planning, intra-organizational market mechanisms, etc.) used to organize CREM, the responsibility for real estate decision making and the performance of real estate tasks are further more one of the most important organization variables in this context. Two different types can be found in practice. The first comprises all companies where decision making authority for nearly all real estate issues is bundled in a separate CREM department. The second consists of companies where business units themselves are responsible for specific real estate decisions and performance of real estate tasks. Little research has been carried out so far that analyzes the causes for the occurrence of these different models. The purpose of this paper is to identify characteristics concerning the responsibility for real estate functions and their performance in European and North American companies as well as to determine the factors that influence the occurrence of different models. An empirical survey among 74 major European and 38 North American companies was executed. The results show that the degree of bundling real estate functions is generally higher in North American companies compared to their European counterparts. More sophisticated functions were in the majority of cases under responsibility of the CREM department, whereas in a large number operational functions were also under responsibility of someone other than CREM group. Moreover, five typical models concerning the responsibility for real estate functions could be identified.
Brounen, Dirk, Bryan D. Macgregor, and Maarten Jennen. "Retail Rent Dynamics." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Real estate research has a long and extensive history of analyzing rent dynamics. Due to data availability constraints the retail market has been the least researched segment of main real estate sectors, despite its import role within the real estate universe (in the US for example the overall REIT market allocates 25.56% of its capital to retail whereas residential and office take up 17.08% and 16.31% respectively, EY Global REIT Report 2007). Existing research of retail markets has mostly focused on the building level thereby examining return determinants at the micro level. In this paper we examine retail rents at a broader level which provides insight into the general trends that have an impact on retail rents. More specifically we analyze retail rents at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level by applying an error correction model in line with Hendershott, MacGregor and White (2002) in a study covering almost three decades of retail rent data for the 14 largest MSAís of the United States. The purpose of the study is to gain additional insight into the determinants and dynamics of retail rents by application of state of the art methodological techniques.
Xu, Yishuang. "Return of REITs and Expected Growth of Yield on Direct Real Estate Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "This study examines the hypothesis about the relationship between the returns of REITs and that of direct real estate. As an indirect investment vehicle, REIT (real estate investment trust) shall perform under the influence of the underlying real estate investment. And there were plenty of research exploring the relationship between the two markets. However, evidence for the relationship between the return of REIT and that of underlying real estate investment is barely found (for example, Giliberto(1990), Liu and Mei(1992), Myer and Webb(1994), Ghosh et al.(1998), Glascock et al.(2000), Clayton and Mackinnon(2003), Pagliari et al.(2005) and so on). That may because that previous studies on this research question focused on ex-post capital or rental growths. The study contents that the return of REITs shall be related to the expected growth of yield in the corresponding direct real estate markets. Under the Gordon Growth Model and CIR Model of Term Structure, the expected growth of yield on direct real estate market is derived and proxied by several variables from financial market in the empirical test. In this way, the test by the regression models on the returns of four local REITs in Hong Kong provides evidence to the hypothesis. This new perspective will guide the research into a new phase and contribute a more concrete understanding of the relationship between REITs and direct real estate investment market. The result will be of interest to the investors of REITs such as investment banks, shareholders, and fund managers, etc. The implication of this study will contribute to a more concrete understanding of the relationship between direct and indirect real estate market by the case of REITs. It will be of interest to the investors of REITs such as investment banks, shareholders, and fund managers, etc. In addition, findings in this study shed lights on the further exploration of the expectations of direct real estate market.""
Ismail, Rahah. "Revisting the Aftermath of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis: An Examination of the Role of the National Asset Management Company, Danaharta, in Managing the Non Performing Loans in the Property Sector in Malaysia." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. During the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, the non ñperforming loan in the property sector accounted for more than 30 percent. It was an alarmingly high exposure for one sector and it was said to have a crippling effect on the banking sector. Scores of property were auctioned and gravely affected the property industry. This paper discusses the problem of non-performing loans in the property sector in Malaysia during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis . It evaluates the role of the national asset management company, Danaharta, solely set up to stabilize the banking and the property industry. Evidences from the central bank will be used to assess the effectiveness of Danaharta in handling the non ñperforming loans. It also discusses how the non-performing loans were negotiated with the banks, how the loan were restructured and the economics of such transactions. Finally, it evaluates the impact of Danaharta in managing the Non- Performing Loans in the Property Sector in Malaysia
Otegbulu, Austin C.. "Revitalizing Decaying Cities Through Infrastructure Provision." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Nartea, Gilbert, and Chris Eves. "Role of Farm Real Estate in a Globally Diversified Asset Portfolio." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The paper examines the benefits of further diversifying a global portfolio of financial assets with New Zealand farm real estate (FRE) using modern portfolio theory. We compare efficient sets generated with and without farm real estate. The results show that given the predominantly negative correlation between FRE and financial assets, the risk-return tradeoffs of portfolios of financial assets can be improved significantly. The diversification benefits measured in terms of risk reduction, return enhancement, and improvement in the Sharpe performance ratios are robust under a number of FRE risk-return scenarios as well as under high and low inflationary periods. Using 5- and 10-year rolling periods we also find that FRE is a consistent part of risk efficient portfolios. The results also show that risk reduction benefits of diversifying with FRE are larger than the risk enhancement benefits. This suggests a role for FRE in mixed asset portfolios that typify more of a risk-reducer rather than a return-enhancer. The practical implication of our findings is that investors can significantly enhance their portfolio risk-return tradeoffs, particularly by reducing risk, through diversification into FRE. FRE therefore appears to deserve more serious consideration by investment practitioners that it has been accorded in the past. We conjecture that such is the result of limited avenues by which they can invest in FRE. Therefore, it is also important to explore ways of making it easier for investment practitioners to invest in FRE probably through the wider introduction and development of unit trusts investing in direct FRE.
Hordijk, Aart, and Bert Teuben. "Sale and Leaseback Transactions: Market or Non Market? The Case of the Netherlands." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Sale and leaseback transactions have a ìpuzzlingî image. The effect normally is that corporate real estate is transferred to real estate investments and in most cases will stay there. The main reasons are of financial and/or strategic origin. Especially now as an effect of the credit crisis, large companies are forced to realise their profit on corporate real estate to improve their balance sheet against the severe losses on the sub prime loans. In other words there will be times that sale and leaseback occur frequently against times that those transactions will be very rare. This paper tries to find out if there will be structural drivers, such as the economy, real estate cycles, specific circumstances like the credit crises, which might explain the increase and decrease of sale and leaseback transactions. Data series from the oldest real estate magazine in the Netherlands Vastgoedmarkt are being used. The transactions will be compared to other investment transactions to find out if the conditions in the case of sale and leaseback will differ from those as far as market rent and market yield are concerned. Where possible the results will be compared to similar situations within Europe.
J Cao, Albert. "Saving the Banks at the Expense of the Property Industry? Lessons from China." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The Chinese property market, in particular the housing market, has experienced a downturn since 2008 even though the banking sector remained well capitalised. This paper analyses the government intervention to prevent an overheating property market from endangering the banking sector and the impact of tight credit on the property market. It first examines the damage of the property downturn to the countryís financial sector in mid 1990s. The paper then explains why the widespread adoption by local governments of the property-led urban economic growth model is very likely to cause a massive property market and banking crisis. It argues that the Chinese government intervention is to avoid a repeat of the financial crisis, which is deemed to be more damaging than a property crisis. The measures to cool down property market activities include tightening bank credit to both developers and mortgage borrowers, raising interest rates, imposing transaction and income taxes, and restricting foreign investment in housing. The fight by local governments against those measures has delayed the adjustment process by the property industry to avoid being trapped in the market downturn. The paper concludes that intervention by the Chinese government does enable China to avoid a financial crisis but the damage to the property industry is not the necessary price for saving the banks if Chinese cities could reduce their reliance on property-led economic growth.
van Dinteren, Jacques. "Science Parks: Eventually a Real Estate Concept?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Given the increased importance of knowledge as a production factor in many companies it is not surprising that there is a growing interest in the development of science and technology parks. In many cases these parks are developed by the private sector or by the private sector in collaboration with an university. These parks often have a high quality. The question comes up whether a science park is a real estate concept or an ëengineí that stimulates the exchange of information and innovation. Research results (mainly in the United Kingdom) suggest that for entrepreneurs the importance of proximity to other firms and universities is limited when it comes to strategic knowledge. Being established on a science or technology park can nevertheless be interesting for firms: a stimulating informal circuit can occur and, moreover, the proximity of a university offers possibilities to attract young talent. With regard to attracting people in a labor market that will become more and more stressed in the coming decade, the high quality of the buildings and environment of a science park can be of importance. In that light a science park could be a real estate concept rather than an engine for innovation. If such a high quality development will have success attention has to be paid to, among others, location, market and target group identification, management and customer orientation. In this paper I will elaborate these ideas and I will present the results of research on some science parks in the Netherlands. Are these parks of importance for the regional economy (linkages, innovation) or are science parks mainly a real estate concept?
Diaz, Roberto Martinez. "Scoring Risk Factors as a Measure of Overall Risk Exposure in Real Estate Portfolios." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In recent years, a revolution has been arising in risk as it is both measured and managed. Contradicting the relatively dull and routine history of risk analysis, new technologies and ideas have emerged among a new generation of financial professionals who are applying their model building skills and analysis to this area. Real estate portfolios are constantly exposed to different sources of risk and measuring this exposure is becoming essential for fund managers and other professionals in the industry. Traditional approaches on real estate portfolioís overall risk measurements are valid but have some limitations such as data availability. The purpose of this study is to develop and establish a scorecard methodology for funds in which factual historic data is used to determine the current and historic risk exposure of real estate funds. Seven different risk factors has been identified and its different value ranges tabulated: fund leverage, exposure to risky market segments, diversification of the fund across market segments, diversification of the fund at property level, exposure to developments, income style (unexpired lease lengths) and asset style (equivalent yield quartiles). The sum of the score associated to each of the above risk factors will provide an overall risk exposure measurement of the real estate fund under analysis.
Ambrose, Brent W., and Joseph Ooi. "Secured Debt and Corporate Performance: Evidence from REITs." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Agency theory in modern corporate finance suggests the presence of a conflict of interest between managers and shareholders. Prior theoretical and empirical research has identified leverage as an important mechanism that is likely to mitigate agency costs. Although debt plays a central role in mitigating corporate agency conflicts, relatively few studies have examined the implications that arise from the use of secured versus unsecured debt. Given the differences that exist in the incentives to engage in costly monitoring activities between secured and unsecured debt holders, we explore the role of secured and unsecured debt as monitoring devices. Specifically, we answer the following question: Does the use of unsecured debt result in a performance difference between firms that employ a higher proportion of unsecured debt versus firms that utilize secured debt? We find robust evidence that an increase in the use of secured debt by REITs is associated with positive excess returns in the following quarter.""
Belniak, Stanislaw, and Michal Gluszak. "Segmentation and Behavior of Regional Housing Markets in Poland." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Baroni, Michel, Fabrice Barthélémy, and Francois Des Rosiers. "Segmenting the Paris Residential Market According to Temporal Evolution and Housing Attributes." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "In this paper, the similarities and differences in housing charateristics among the different ìarrondissementsî of Paris, France, are brought out using a twofold, spatio-temporal approach: while standard hedonic price modelling is applied to a series of building and neighbourhood attributes in order to define spatial submarkets, differentials in price appreciation over time are also measured using both hedonic and repeat sales indices.Spatial segmentation is performed on the 20 Paris ìarrondissementsî as well as on the 80 neighbourhoods, or ìquartiersî (each ìarrondissementî is composed of four ìquartiersî), with cluster analysis being resorted to for that purpose. The database, which is provided by the Chambre des Notaires de France, includes cases spread over a 17 year period, that is from 1990 to 2006. Housing descriptors include, among other things, the building age, the apartment size and the number of rooms, the presence of a garage, the type of street and access to building (boulevard, square, alley, etc. as well as a series of location dummy variables standing for the ìarrondissementsî and ìquartiersî.""
Kohlert, Daniel, Florian Heydenreich, and Andreas Oehler. "Sense and Nonsense of Diversification Based on Economic Factors: Do Regional Economic Factors Influence Regional Real Estate Investment Returns?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Understanding the determinants of real estate investment performance is a necessary precondition for successful portfolio management. In particular the relationships between real estate returns and key economic factors such as GDP, total investment as well as unemployment, bank and inflation rates have been a key concern for researchers and practitioners. For the first time, this study investigates these relationships on a regional level, employing NUTS2 real estate return data for office buildings in the UK for 27 regions over the time period from 1981-2004. Real estate return data has been provided by IPD, regional economic data by Cambridge Econometrics. Conducting regression analyses for each region we identify the respective return determinants and, in a second step, use quadratic programming to construct diversified investment portfolios based on the identified relevant economic factors. Our findings clearly suggest that the relationships between economic factors and real estate returns found on a national level cannot simple be assumed to hold on regional levels. Constructing portfolios based on the analysis of national data can therefore be severely misleading due to extreme interregional differences with regard to the respective relevant factors. While strategies based on single economic factors such as GDP lead to only a minor loss in risk adjusted performance, any combination of economic factors severely reduces it. This holds true regardless of whether total return, income return or capital return data is used. Consequently, depending on the employed investment strategy (e.g. value added, opportunistic), portfolios have to be composed very differently.""
Post, Sari. "Services for the Elderly in the Residential Areas." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Ageing has been a current topic for many years because of the demographic change that is happening through Western countries. The drastic change of the age structure has caused the need to develop housing and neighborhood services better suitable for elderly. Lack of neighborhood services is one of the most significant deficiencies in living environment of senior citizens. Therefore information on needs, expectations and plans of senior citizens is needed to make residential environment functional for elderly. The main purpose of this study is to emphasize the key issues of constructing competent service environment for elderly and making it a viable business concept. The other purpose is to clarify how services should be placed relative to the apartments. The study is focused on senior housing in Finland. The study reviews different kind of service environment elderly have in their residential area. The focus is on exploring service use and experiences of residents in different types of surroundings. In this paper different viewpoints are examined to design suitable residential areas for the elderly. The study was conducted as a case study and it used empirical qualitative data from the questionnaire study likewise interviews with 15 senior citizens who are residents of examined surroundings in Finland. The results have been analyzed relating to differences between expectations and needs of residents as also prevailing practice. The results indicate that service environment has a very important role in making residential area suitable for elderly. In conclusion most of the basic neighborhood services should be in a walking distance from senior citizensí apartment. Lack of some basic services does not cause dissatisfaction towards supply of service among elderly.
Iman, Abdul Hamid Mar, and Nurul Hana Adi Maimun. "Shared-Parking Turn-Time (SPaTT) Model for Analyzing Parking Stress in Urban Commercial Area." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Lack of parking space in such zones may affect an urban area negatively such as the occurrence of illegal parking. Increasing number of illegal on-street parking reflects parking insufficiency in a particular commercial zone. This creates urban parking stress. Parking supply and demand model can be developed to examine the existence of this phenomenon. This study aims at examining the existence of parking stress using Geographic Information System (GIS) by taking a small town in Malaysia as a case study. We developed a quantitative technique based on Shared-Parking Turn-Time (SPaTT) model and used GIS to estimate and map supply and demand gap of parking space within the urban commercial area. Spatial data were acquired from various sources and digitally constructed to form a spatial database of parking supply and demand of that area. The study adopted interview and observation method to obtain attribute data to run the SPaTT model. Supply and demand calculations of parking space were made according to six time blocks in order to estimate parking equilibrium for each time block during weekdays and weekends. The results were then analysed using ArcView GIS 3.3 software to display areas exhibiting parking stress or otherwise abundance. This study disclosed that there was no evidence of acute parking stress in the study area. In other words, there was sufficient parking space in most sections of the urban commercial area. However, the study recommended some parking policies and standards, additional shared-parking space, increasing public transportation services, and real-time parking information in order to reduce parking stress in a particular area at a particular time.
Iman, Abdul, Suriatini Ismail, and Remy Martin. "Site Potentiality Mapping for Petrol Filling Station Based on Traffic Counts within Residential Neighbourhoods." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Site selection is one of the most important factors in determining business competitiveness and performance. This is particularly true for a petrol filling station business, which relies on customer visits. In absence of the exact information on the number of customer visits, traffic volume can be treated as a proxy to it. This paper uses a 2Ω_D surface rendered using an multiple regression model and geographic information system (GIS) to identify site potentiality for petrol filling station business within residential neighbourhoods. In so doing, the paper has three objectives. Firstly, to briefly review situs characteristics that influence the level of traffic volume passing through a particular site; secondly, to specify a regression model that produces parametric estimates of these characteristics for predictive purpose; and finally to incorporate the model into a geographic information system (GIS) to render a 2Ω_D contour map of predicted traffic volume counts in a study area to assess site potentialiy for petrol stations. The study area is locted within the Central Johor Bahru Municipality (MPJBT) that covers the Mukim of Pulai and a part of Mukim of Senai_Kulai. Based on the model developed, it is found that type of artery road has greatest influence on traffic volume followed by accessibility, direction, site location and population density. A GIS map of predicted site potentiality for petrol station based on traffic volume has also been enerated. This study has illustrated how MRA and GIS can be used in examining site potentiality based n traffic volume counts for petrol filling station business.
Naserbakht, Mohammed. "Strategic Solutions for Enhancing the Capabilities of Iranian Real Estate Corporations." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Iran is one of the leading countries in the Real Estate market in the Middle East. In recent years the role of private sector in this field has been increased (about % 95). But in spite of high investment on the Real Estate industry, they are facing with a lot of troubles and obstacles in order to come into the competitive and global markets. So, in this research we attempt on analyzing the Real Estate situation in Iran and clarifying their requirement for being effective actors in the global markets. Indeed, we have focus on both of their weaknessesí aspects, Technological and Managerial.
Remøy, Hilde, Philip W. Koppels, and Hans de Jonge. "Structural Vacancy of Office Buildings: The Influence of Building- and Location- Characteristics in the Case of Amsterdam." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Ever since the Second World War, office markets world-wide could be characterised as growth markets. Since 2000 though, financial and real estate crises and ìthe new way of workingî are reducing the need for office space, and office markets become replacement markets without a quantitative need for new office buildings: New buildings drive out bad buildings. In December 2008, the Amsterdam office market comprised 6.7 million m2, and an available supply of 1.2 million m2. 60% is classified as structurally vacant, meaning vacancy of the same square meters for three or more years, without perspective of future tenancy. Due to the current financial crisis and the construction of new buildings, the vacancy is expected to increase over the next few years. When relocating, organisations consider buildings and locations within geographically defined markets. Though location characteristics are important, eventually their choice depends on building characteristics. Organisations prefer office buildings that facilitate their main processes, and support their image and financial yield. In this study, we consider the revealed preferences of office organisations by relating structural vacancy to building and location characteristics. This paper will answer the following questions based on the Amsterdam case: which office buildings and locations are preferred by office users and which have the highest structural vacancy? Is structural vacancy related to specific building and location characteristics? Based on former studies we defined building- and location- characteristics that we expect to influence office user preferences. We studied the physical characteristics of 220 office buildings and applied regression analyses to explain the influence of specific characteristics on the office user preferences. Understanding office user preferences is important for understanding movements in replacement markets like the Amsterdam office market. In our study we reveal that building characteristics have a strong influence on office user preferences and should definitely be taken into account when developing new office buildings.
Klingborg, Kerstin, and Inga Britt Werner. "Studying Social Capital in Housing Neighborhoods: Does Tenure Matter?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. As in Sweden in general, the municipality owns a large share of the rental multi-family housing stock through itsí housing companies. At present tenants are offered the possibility to buy the houses or the real estate units, from the municipal housing companies, in the form of tenant-owners associations. This extensive process of conversion of tenure will have major influence on the Stockholm housing market, also in respects such as the relationships between residents and between residents and the societyís institutions. The aim of our study is to analyze whether social capital, here in forms of trust and reciprocal norms as well as the resulting collective action and conflicts, changes with conversing tenure. Our hypothesis is that changes will occur and that the tenure form ëtenant-ownerís associationí will imply residentsí stronger participation in decision processes than in rental tenure, which in turn should increase the social capital among residents. On the other hand, factors like increased mobility, due to the opportunity to sell the apartment, or conflicts that may occur between residents who choose to continue renting their apartment and the tenant-ownerís association- can lead to a negative influence on social capital. The data are collected through telephone interviews with residents at two occasions: spring 2008 and spring 2010. Ten buildings in five suburban neighborhoods are chosen for the study, five of which will be, as is indicated right now, owned by tenant-owners associations and five that will continue to be owned by the municipal housing companies. This paper analyzes the results of 350 interviews during spring 2008. Methods used are cross tabulations with Chi-square and Mann-Whitney tests, factor and regression analyses. Results indicate that residents forming tenant-owners associations in order to buy their dwellings have more trust in neighbors in the neighborhood and politicians at local and municipality levels but less trust in the housing company and the neighborhood police than residents that will continue renting their dwellings. Also indicated are local versions of social capital that do not seem to be related to the conversion process.
Schleich, Helmut, Anna-Liisa Lindholm, and Heidi Falkenbach. "Sustainability and Property Portfolio Assessment." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. With an increasing body of scientific evidence showing the sustainability issues have been catapulted to the very top of the global political agenda. Governments and societies around the world are becoming increasingly united on the need to reduce the negative environmental effects. As a result there is an ever increasing range of regulatory and taxation measures, as well as voluntary initiatives, designed to help reduce environmental damage. In terms of real estate there is a lot of research into sustainability on property level. There is research on the needs of the property occupiers as well as different kinds of assessment criteria, certificates and standards on the property level. Nevertheless overall accepted standards have not been reached. In contrast to property level, portfolio management as well as investment decision making process have not been regarded in depth by academic research. There is a need to develop criteria for property companies to assess the sustainability of the whole property portfolio level. The aim of the paper is to study the current situation of the sustainability assessment practices in property companies. The research is based on theme interviews with selected German and Finnish property companies and multidisciplinary literature review. The paper presents the current situation of property sustainability assessment; practices, requirements and needs for property portfolio assessment criteria. In addition, the business benefits of the sustainability assessment for the property companies are discussed
Aini, Ainoriza Mohd. "Sustainable And Responsible Property Investment In Malaysia: Setting the Research Agenda." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The call to establish a business case for the development of ëgreení or/and sustainable commercial properties has been prompted by knowledge and increasing concern of the environmental and social impact of buildings. Initially proponents sought to root the business case to added benefit and reduced revenue costs to the occupier (see for example, Edwards, 2003; Kats, 2003). It was only in 2000 (Sustainable Construction Task Group, 2000) that the agenda began to shift towards notions of reward. Since then, realization has grown that any business case must be founded on added value (Ellison et al, 2007). Therefore the debate has moved from supply to demand and with this have come claims that sustainable buildings may be ëworth moreí either theoretically (Lutzkendorf and Lorenz, 2005; Ellison and Sayce, 2006) or on the basis of investor or tenant intention (McMahon, 2008; Merrill Lynch, 2005). Other claim premium values in practice (RICS, 2005; Green Building Council of Australia, 2006; Miller et al; 2008). This paper is a working paper only. It presents the unconfirmed findings from an RICS commissioned research project reviewing the international literature in order to establish the validity of claims of premium value. In analyzing the literature, the evidence has been framed to attempt to isolate sub-sectors or locations in which robust data, free from the noise of other market drivers. In so doing the authors reviewed perception studies, theoretical work and empirical surveys and case studies. The analysis was undertaken using both qualitative interpretation and statistical techniques. By so doing, the authors have been able to isolate trends which enable tentative conclusions to be reached as to the ëdirection of travelí in the market place. The paper concludes that the evidence is still extremely limited, though a direction of travel is starting to emerge. However, many interpretation issues still remain. However the findings enable researchers to begin to set out an agenda for both further research and recommendations for actions by property investors and professional bodies.
Kusiluka, Moses, and Sophia Kongela. "Sustainable Property Development in Tanzania." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Scaring revelations about global climate change and its effects have necessitated adoption of sustainable approaches in most of the human activities. Property development is one of the activities which are increasingly embracing sustainable technologies. Sustainability in property development, sometimes referred to as green building, is rapidly gaining attention worldwide. It is however true that some parts of the world have not accomplished much on the ground. Tanzania is one of the countries in which evidence of concerted efforts towards green building can hardly be seen. Although green building entails extra initial costs, its long term benefits far outweigh the costs. Besides, some countries like Tanzania are endowed with most of the natural resources needed for green building. For instance, Tanzania has abundant sources of wind energy, solar energy, bio energy and hydro energy. Availability of a variety of local construction materials and cheap labour is another clear opportunity. This study first identifies opportunities for green building in Tanzania before assessing green building awareness amongst key professionals and property owners. The study further examines sustainability aspects in some selected buildings completed during the past decade in Dar es Salaam city. The data for this study was collected using a questionnaire which was administered to 50 key informants comprising architects, engineers, property managers and property owners. Results show that most of the architects, engineers and property managers are aware of the advantages of green building and the opportunities available in Tanzania. It is also revealed that most of the property owners are inadequately informed about the advantages of green building and the opportunities available in Tanzania. Results also show that that most of the buildings completed within the past decade are not built with green building requirements in mind.
Warren-Myers, Georgia, and Richard Reed. "Sustainable Property the Measurement and Valuation Challenge." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. There is a recognised misalignment by industry stakeholders that the financial benefits of sustainable property investment are inherently difficult to quantify (RICS, 2008). The lack of key financial correlations between sustainability and economic returns with regards to property investment has created major challenges for valuers who seek to accurately reflect the impact of sustainability in property valuation. Clearly if the implementation of sustainability in buildings is to develop further in the property market then it is essential that the links between market value and sustainability are identified. The lack of financial drivers are preventing significant investment in sustainability because stakeholders have limited ability to measure the level of sustainability in a building or understand the impact upon the value. The absence of detailed recent market evidence, sales data and lease transactions of sustainable buildings means there is no reliable evidence as to whether sustainable buildings are feasible (Lutzkendorf and Lorenz 2005). In addition, there is confusion in the industry surrounding the measurement of the level of sustainability in commercial property. Although a range of environmental rating tools exist for buildings in Australia and New Zealand commercial property, the synergy between these tools and identification of the relationship between the measurement and market value is somewhat blurred. This is due to the unique approach behind the compilation of points attributed in the rating tools for sustainability in commercial property. This paper presents findings from the lead authorís doctorate investigating the relationship between the elements of sustainability and the impact upon the market value of commercial property. The paper provides a useful insight into the rapidly evolving area of the valuation of sustainability in commercial property, with the emphasis placed on the knowledge and understanding of Valuers about the impact of sustainability upon property value.
Sayce, Sarah, Anna Sundberg, and Edward Cowling. "Sustainable Property: A Premium Product?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The call to establish a business case for the development of ëgreení or/and sustainable commercial properties has been prompted by knowledge and increasing concern of the environmental and social impact of buildings. Initially proponents sought to root the business case to added benefit and reduced revenue costs to the occupier (see for example, Edwards, 1999; Kats, 2003). It was only in 2000 (Sustainable Construction Task Group, 2000) that the agenda began to shift towards notions of reward. Since then, realization has grown that any business case must be founded on added value (Ellison et al, 2007). Therefore the debate has moved from supply to demand and with this have come claims that sustainable buildings may be ëworth moreí either theoretically (Lutzkendorf and Lorenz,2005; Ellison and Sayce, 2006) or on the basis of investor or tenant intention (McMahon, 2008; Merrill Lynch, 2005). Other claim premium values in practice (RICS, 2005; Green Building Council of Australia, 2006; Miller et al; 2008). This paper will present findings from an RICS commissioned research project reviewing the international literature in order to establish the validity of claims of premium value. In analyzing the literature, the evidence has been framed such that it is possible to isolate any sub_sectors or locations in which robust data, free from the noise of other market drivers. In so doing the authors reviewed perception studies, theoretical work and empirical surveys and case studies. The analysis was undertaken using both qualitative interpretation and statistical techniques. By so doing, the authors have been able to isolate trends which enable tentative conclusions to be reached as to the ëdirection of travelí in the market place. The paper concludes by setting out an agenda for both further research and recommendations for actions by property investors and professional bodies.
Eskinasi, Martijn. "System Dynamics as a Complementary Methodology for Real Estate Research." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. System dynamics is a quantitative simulation methodology, which is claimed to bring counterintuitive but truthful insights into the dynamic behaviour of complex feedback systems. It is used as a learning platform for both professionals and policy makers and is used to explore robust strategies in order to tackle highly complex prolicy problems. The paper addresses the question whether system dynamics is useful as a complementary methodology for real estate research. First of all, we will present the main concepts and principles of system dynamics and address its usefulness for real estate research. Secondly, a review is provided of the track record of system dynamics in the field of urban development, housing and real estate, including the provocative Urban Dynamics (Forrester, 1969) and its follow up. As a third contribution, an effort will be made to model the ubiquitous real estate markets model of Wheaton and DiPasquale (1996) into the system dynamics paradigm and to test whether this brings plausible results. Finally, we venture into the intricate dynamics of the Dutch housing market and present work in progress how to use both system dynamics and the real estate markets models in order to assess trajectories for the reforms to come.
Patel, Kanak, and Kridsda Nimmanunta. "Tail Dependence in REIT Returns." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This study investigates the dependence structure of returns of different types of equity REIT. Copulas, which provide a tractable way of modelling non-linear dependency among random variables, are employed under financial time series framework. The model consists of two parts: the marginal part, which represents the dynamic behaviour of each individual margin, and the copula part, which represents the joint dependence among those individual components. Specifically, the REIT sub-sector indices are fitted using ARMA-EGARCH models and then analysed using time-varying conditional copulas to ascertain if tail dependence exists and to examine the dynamics of the tail dependency. The study tests a number of well-known copulas, for example, Gaussian, Studentís t, Gumbel, Clayton, and Symmetrised Joe-Clayton, to identify the most suitable one for equity REIT indices. For each copula, the time path of the degree of tail dependence is implied to see how the dependence structure changed over time. The sample data covers the US REITs from January 1993 to February 2009. However, the focus is placed on the recent period in which many extreme events occurred.
Str_czkowski, _ukasz, and Henryk Gawron. "Tendencies and Changes in the Development of Local Residential Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The aim of the article is to present tendencies and changes of the situation on the local residential market in Poznan, including division into primary market (market of new dwellings) and secondary market (market of flats called ìusedî). The source of data relating following analysis, are the results of research, based on sale offers of flats on secondary and primary market from 2000 till 2007, as well as the results of questionnaire survey done on turning-point 2006 and 2007 among 466 persons, declaring intention of purchase of flat in Poznan. In addition to the above mentioned, there were also used data form the secondary sources, like Central Statistical Office in Poland and earlier surveys of Department of Investment and Real Estate of The Poznan University of Economics. Using the results of research of sale offers of flats and home buyers aimed to present gradually progressive phenomenon of differentiation of housing market, defined as tendency of separation of different segments of flats, as well as presentation of motives of flats purchase, preferences of home buyers and the factors, that have, from the buyersí point of view, the decisive meaning in process of purchase of flat and the choice of definite housing premises. On the basis of conducted research one can be stated: ï together with the development of real estate market in Poland, the local housing market is submitted to the phenomenon of more and more larger diversification and it is possible to observe the phenomenon of separation the more and more different segments of flats, ï preferences of home buyers and motives of purchase are diversified and they depend on the features, that describe households, ï to the most important factors, taken under consideration in the process of searching flats, rank in turn: the price, location, surface, costs of maintenance as well as the safety of neighbourhood, ï in all analyzed areas (the price, location, storey, surface) the differences between expectations of the buyers and accessible in offer flats were observed.
Hulse, Kath, Colin Jones, and Hal Pawson. "Tenurial ëCompetitioní, Maturation of Housing Systems and the Private Rented Sector: An International Reappraisal." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The debate in the academic literature about the respective roles of different tenures stimulated in part by Kemenyís pioneering work on home ownership in Sweden, the UK and Australia has focused on distinctions between dual and unitary markets, and latterly the concept of an ëintegrated rental marketí. These analyses tend to see the private rented sector as having a minor part of the private housing provision, an adjoint to owner occupation. This paper seeks to reappraise this view by incorporating subsequent theoretical developments and recent policy initiatives in different countries. This paper is in two parts, first it charts the re_emergence and changing face of the private rented sector across key OECD countries over the last twenty years. This analysis provides the basis for a more detailed examination of the role of the private rental market relative to other tenures focussing on a small number of countries including Australia, the Netherlands, the UK, Ireland, and Scandinavian countries. The paper considers in particular the role of ëcompetitioní between the PRS, social housing and owner occupation, including the effectiveness of the key process of maturation in Kemenyís model.
Fuerst, Franz, and Gianluca Marcato. "Testing and Improving Commercial Real Estate Market Segmentations With Cluster Analysis and Neural Network Techniques." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Market segmentation is a standard concept in both strategic marketing and investment analysis. The standard approach in the real estate market context is to segment markets by regions and property types. While this approach provides investment analysts with a powerful basic classification grid, its capability of predicting the performance and risk characteristics of direct investments is rather limited. The corollary of this is that a classification based on the two criteria yields segments that are too heterogeneous in their investment performance. As this is an issue of potential importance to investment analysts, this paper tests the predictive power of existing segmentations. In a further step, we apply a two-step cluster algorithm to generate new clusters based on additional investment characteristics and information relating to the tenant base and lease structure of a property. To this aim, we analyze the very large IPD commercial real estate database for the UK over the period 1980-2006. Finally, we apply both discriminant analysis and a non-parametric neural network estimation to test the ability of various segmentations to predict total returns. Both methods confirm that the segments determined by cluster analysis yield superior explanatory power. We conclude that the new segments are a potentially useful tool for commercial real estate investment analysis.
Costello, Greg, Yen Min Goh, and Greg Schwann. "The Accuracy and Robustness of Real Estate Price Index Methods." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper re-examines the statistical properties of five different price index methods with the objective of identifying one that is most accurate and robust when estimated at frequent time intervals and/or for highly localized markets. This paper adopts the split sample technique to allow for a consistent basis upon which the price index methods are compared. The results show that: 1) when estimating price indexes, the arbitrary pooling of data across time and geography is not warranted, 2) the hedonic imputation model outperforms the alternative models on all measures of accuracy and robustness, 3) the differences in the levels of accuracy among the models are statistically significant and 4) there are significant economic disadvantages associated with using a sub-optimal price index method in decision-making.
Newell, Graeme, and Patrick McAllister. "The Accuracy of Property Forecasting in the U.K." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Koppels, Philip W., Hilde Remøy, Hans de Jonge, and Anet Weterings. "The Added Value of Image: A Hedonic Ofice Rent Analysis." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The location choice of office firms is assumed to be primarily driven by the opportunities for face-to-face contacts; a concept strongly linked with agglomeration economies. However, it is recognised that other factors, such as prestige and image might also explain why firms prefer certain locations and buildings more than others, and are willing to pay a higher rent for office properties with specific characteristics. This article examines, in a hedonic framework, the importance of neighbourhood and building image for office firms. Drawing upon a substantial database of office lease transactions in Amsterdam, for the period 1996-2007, the relationship between rent and the characteristics of the location and building is investigated. Location characteristics and building attributes that are assumed to capture image effects were collected through various data sources and extensive fieldwork. Furthermore, varies variables relating mainly to accessibility and office employment density were included in the analysis to control for urban economies of scale effects. The results indicate that the image of location and building has a strong influence on the site and building choice of office organisations; image effects explain approximately 25 percent of the observed rent variations. However, variables relating to accessibility and density of office employment are also found of high significance and it remains difficult to separate specific effects of urban economies of scale and presentation or image effects.
Andrew, Mark, and Alan W. Evans. "The Anatomy of Speculation: A National Analysis of the UK Housing Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "This paper examines the trends of the prices of different dwelling types in the UK. We attempt to explain three features of the data: (i) the long-run relationship between the prices; (ii) the reasons why flat prices tend to lead the prices of other dwelling types; and (iii) the relatively larger downswings in flat prices. We argue that the housing market is not a homogenous mass but a series of submarkets in which property type is one aspect of it. Distinctive patterns in the prices of dwelling types are observed over time because of the different characteristics of participants in the housing submarkets. First-time buyers play a key role in the adjustment process as they can time their entry into the market. In contrast, existing homeowners are relatively unresponsive to economic shocks due to high transactions costs, imperfect capital markets and consumption concerns. They do not divest from housing when economic conditions deteriorate and take time to trade upwards when conditions are favourable. The behaviour of these different groups leads to the distinctive patterns in the data, which are confirmed by our empirical model.""
Noor, Mohd Nazali Moh. "The Application of Supply Chain Management and Cooperative Innovation in the Delivery of Facilities Management Services." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper provides literature updates on the needs of SCM to ensure an organisationís sustainability and in creating effective business collaborations to obtain profits through a common objective in FM. The present study reviews related literature on supply chain management (SCM) in generic business and FM contexts and the roles of SCM in ensuring sustainability of a business in market value. Comprehensive literature obtained from various published resources obtained through electronic databases, journals, books and printed materials are used to highlight relevant investigations on SCM. Findings from the critical review identified that SCM helps organisations to execute strategic purchasing for sustainable market position in a rapidly changing and competitive environment. Facilities will be effectively managed by adopting strategic alliances in SCM with FM suppliers through faster service delivery, increase in service efficiency and cost savings, reflecting that key elements of SCM are crucial when considering a supply chain management system.
Rebitzer, Dieter, Christian Malottki, Joachim Kirchner, and Holger Cischinsky. "The Behaviour of Large Housing Portfolio Owners in Growing and Declining Regions and its Political Implications." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The rental housing market plays an important role for the German housing supply. More than 40 % of the rental housing is provided by professional housing companies. Most of them are owned by the public sector. These companies face different development patterns of the housing market ñ and consequently different patterns of the development of cities and neighbourhoods. The paper draws on the situation in the German state of Hesse, which includes all types of regions between the boom region around Frankfurt and the Northern part with a strong decline in population. In a first chapter a forecast of housing demand of the Institute for Housing and Environment differentiated for counties, building types and number of rooms is presented. A central challenge for the owners is the fact that demand is shifting between the market segments even in equilibrated housing markets with low requirement for new space. It is important to remark that more small households do not cause a higher demand for small flats. The second chapter analyses different strategies of the market players ranging from disinvestment to the upgrade of old dwellings from lower to higher market segments. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for housing policy and urban planning. The parallel patterns of growth and decline lead to the remarkable situation that the administration has to provide subsidies for construction and demolition at the same time.""
Parhizgari, Ali, and I Pavlova. "The Boom and the Lean Times in Global REITs: The 2000-2008 Period." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper investigates the surge and the eventual slowdown in global REITs in the 2000s. Further, it offers some investment strategies that this sector could offer to the investors. The paper contributes to the literature on the predictability of real estate securities returns over short to medium horizons. An evolutionary (genetic) algorithm is applied to optimize the investment strategies. Our findings suggest that momentum effects have been present during the 2000-2008 period. However, in contrast with prior studies, momentum portfolio returns are insignificant during the boom years, but are highly significant during the downturn periods.
Saxinger, Andreas. "The Building Expert in the German Law." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "There is a wide range of activity field for building experts. Nevertheless the German law contains only a few regulations concerning building experts. The three most important activity fields will be presented. Often, the building owner and the building expert enter into a private contract to check, if all obligations by the construction company are really fulfilled. The most important point for the building experts is to look for building defects. Only if there are no or only negligible defects, the owner will accept the building work und pay the total price. Sometimes the building expert is required to write an arbitration report. Many private construction contracts contain arbitration clauses. The goal of these clauses is to avoid, that the parties have to go immediately to an official court in case of a dispute. By accepting the result of the building expertís arbitration report the parties quickly resolve their dispute. An important activity field for building experts is to compile an expertís report for a court. In this case the building expert is not assigned by the parties, but by the court. Usually the members of a court themselves will not be able to judge if a building defect really exists or not. To fill this lack of knowledge, they depend on the building expertís report. Often the result of this report represents the basis for the courtís final decision.""
Striewe, Nicolai, and Nico Rottke. "The Capital Structure of North American REITs and REOCs." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The paper investigates the capital structures of North-American REITs in different market phases. First, the paper aims at finding out how different REITs alter their capital structures in different environments. Second, it will be investigated which capital structures outperform others in different environments, such as market phases and economic circumstances. The panel data offers a spatial dimension considering cross-sectional REITs that exist in North America. The variables of the cross-sectional REITS are observed from 2003 to 2008, thus adding a temporal dimension to the analysis of six years. Through panel data it is possible to enhance the quantity and quality of the data. As focus variables the leverage, the short-term to long-term and the variable- to fixed-rate debt portions are implemented into the panel regression model. As control variables a large data set of governance variables, balance sheet and profit and loss data, as well as macroeconomic data are added to the data pool. Interaction variables will be necessary in order to show influences of variables on other variables. The effect of the capital structures on the performance of the company is to be measured. As performance measures, inter alia return on assets, return on equity, price to net asset value and stock-market performance are used.
D’Arcy, Eamonn, and Sotiris Tsolacos. "The Changing Location Dynamics of Real Estate Investing." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Traditionally headline institutional grade real estate investment activity in Europe has focused on established financial centers. This was not surprising given the needs of investors for competitive returns, secure income streams and liquidity. However, over the last decade the fundamental characteristics of non-residential real estate investment markets in Europe have undergone significant changes. On the back of unparallel growth in investment volumes, the composition of investment activities has shifted from domestic towards cross-border, encompassing a greatly expanded range of actors and menu of product choices. Given the magnitude of structural changes which have taken place in investment markets this paper examines the extent to which these have been translated into changes in the location dynamics of real estate investing in Europe through an investigation of the extent to which secondary European locations have benefited from increased real estate investment flows in this period At the outset there are strong a priori reasons to suggest that recent real estate capital flows in Europe have been spread over a wider range of investment locations. These include the greater diversity of players, especially on the indirect side, a more focused approach to the construction of cross-border investment strategies based on the pursuit of return opportunities and diversification potential, and in general significantly better product and performance information for a wider range of locations. The fact that very few established centers have experienced significant levels of oversupply despite record investment volumes as compared to the mid-nineties suggest that capital has been spread over a wider range of locations. The task of this paper is to explore this hypothesis and within it to identify the magnitude of any flows involved and to explore the characteristics of both the recipient locations and the investment market actors involved. The paper concludes by assessing the implications for the competitiveness of the locations involved and at a more general level for the structure of European real estate investment markets.""
Liu, Xiaolong. "The Composition of Market Proxy in REITs Risk Premium Estimation." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ates its undiversi able market risk exposure. Past research has consis- tently shown that REITs have low betas with respect to market proxies that are often equity indices, such as S&P 500 and CRSP indices. As a result, investors perceive REITs as a less risky investment vehicle that ra- tionalizes the low or moderate compensation in terms of expected returns. However, using equity indices as market proxy leaves part of the market risk to remain diversi able as the market portfolio becomes more com- plete that incorporates various assets besides equity. A natural question that follows is will using a more diversi ed market proxy matter for the estimation of required rate of return that compensates the systematic risk exposure of REITs . In this paper, we construct a market portfolio in the spirit of Roll (1977) that consists of equity, xed-income securities, and real estate, and test if the REITs' risk premium estimated using equity index alone is robust to the misspeci cation of the market portfolio. Our results show that REITs betas are signi cantly increased as more com- plete market proxy is used. However, the market risk premium estimation of REITs does not vary signi cantly as the market proxy becomes more complete over the whole sample period from 1990 to 2008. There is con- sistent evidence that, on average, using equity market proxy understates the riskiness of REITs by less than 3 basis points on a monthly basis over the 2001-2008 sub period. Our results stand after using a survivor-bias free sample of REITs
Lin, Tzu-Chin, and Kwo-Hwa Chen. "The Contrasts Between Government-Assessed and Market-Revealed Land Values." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Taiwan is one of the few countries where a split-rate or differential-rate property tax is applied. Under the split-rate taxation, land is taxed at a higher rate than the structure. The scarce transactions of vacant land in the cities have led the government assessors to separating land and structure values of a built property. The present valuation practices in separating these two value elements heavily rely on the cost approach. However, the accuracy of the assessed land values has been largely eschewed examination. This article employs a Cobb-Douglas type regression model to estimate the respective values of land and structure against a data set of 17469 transactions of residential properties in Taipei City between 1994 to 2003. A variable that accounts for the spatial effects on property value is constructed through the trend-surface method instead of employment of the often-used district dummy variables. We contrast the government-assessed and market-revealed land values primarily from the equity perspective. A government-assessed land value used for taxation purpose is generally acceptable to differ from its true market value. However, dissatisfaction, even legal disputes, often arises when the differences between government-assessed and market-revealed values vary significantly among properties. The differences will violate the equity principle of taxation. We also attempt to provide explanations for the detected value differences in the hope to improve the present valuation system.
Bodenhagen, Andreas. "The Contribution of Solar Energy to Green Buildings - Meeting Environmental and Economic Objectives." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Focusing on green buildings does not only help to reduce climate change it also increases the quality of life by improving peopleís health and wellbeing. Solar energy is an important contributor to improving air quality as it is an emission free form of power generation. Solar energy contributes to new green buildings or renovations by producing energy for either direct use at the respective site or by feeding it into the energy grid, where feed-in tariffs have been established by the countryís government. The economic advantages of a solar system lie in its energy and revenue generating effects, in its capability to increase the value of a property and in the competitive advantages it provides to the owners business. Today most roofs are unused space. As traditional PV systems ñ framed in glass and tilted ñ are often too heavy for low load bearing industrial roofs the application of PV systems is restricted to a few heavy weight carrying industrial and residential roofs. To reduce climate change effects and the dependency on fossil fuels Solar Integrated has developed various lightweight PV products to make low-slope industrial roofs accessible for solar energy. As an example our Solar Membrane Roofing, which consists of a traditional roofing membrane with integrated PV elements. These modules are welded to existing or new membrane roofs. Such PV system adds only 4,9kg/m≤ to the weight. As the PV system becomes an integrated part of the roof, it is aesthetically pleasing and allows taking advantage of higher feed in tariffs for building integrated PV in some countries. Products for metal roofs and for combination with green roofs make a wide range of roofing types available for solar power generation. In a case study the energy generation and emission saving benefits of an installed PV system will be explored in detail.
Ismail, Maziah, and Edie Ezwan Mohd Safian. "The Development of a Classification Model for Purpose Built Offices in the Golden Triangle Area of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper discusses the development of a reliable and realistic instrument to classify purpose built offices in the Golden Triangle Area of Kuala Lumpur. The classification of purpose built offices represents the fundamental to the development of office market performance indicators in the country, specifically the current office price or rental index. Research on classification of office buildings in Malaysia has been largely focused on the effects of location and environmental factors. However, the role of property specific attributes that form intrinsic features to the Malaysian office building, has been a neglected area of research. The research undertaken, therefore, focused on a set of case studies consisting of fourty-one purpose built offices located within the Golden Triangle Area of Kuala Lumpur. In this research, office building attributes and sub factors that were used as the basis to rank and classify purpose built offices were grouped under six criteria. In addition, strengths and weaknesses of office classification models currently available in the market, were also addressed and evaluated. This paper also discusses the application of Analytical Hierarchy Process as a rigorous methodology to develop an objective measure of the classification model for the fourty-one purpose built offices undertaken as case studies. The findings of the research illustrated that Analytical Hierarchy Process should be used in order to address the needs of different property market participants. This is because; as observed in the research, Analytical Hierarchy Process is a more practical method than the prevailing current procedures. The importance of influence of specific Malaysian office building attributes on the perception of office tenants on building quality is also discussed. This paper also highlights the findings of comparison carried out between other models and the developed model. The objective is to explain as well as to provide recommendations for the necessary course of actions and to identify the consequential and sub sequential repercussions in applying the new classification scheme and other resources implications. This paper concludes that the newly developed purpose built office classification model provides an improved tool for evaluating office building quality, resulting in a more effective office classification model for application in Malaysia.
Sahk, Kaarel, and Kalev Sepp. "The Development of Compulsory Purchase - A Legislative View Point and Market Expectations." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "During the ownership reforms in Estonia as in all the Baltic States the growing importance of real estate appraisals is followed. The process of appraisal procedure is frequently connected with the current need to use of land i.e. property owned by private owner in the other purposes than it ìis acceptedî or ìas it isî In many situations this approach lead the market participants to the compulsory transaction of the property so as the former owner cannot use the land conveying its highest and the best use. In the similar situations the impossibility do not convey the highest and the best use first of all rises from the legally and/or designed and mapped and this way authorized public need to use of the property other way, commonly in the way that is not the highest and the best use of it. It is evidential that the owner needs a satisfaction for the changes in use and in the ownership of the property. Also is evidential the fact that the measurement in money of the compulsory transaction is the best way to solve it, if we are able to estimate the right amount of the compensation for it turned into money. Current paper tries to answer to above named positions in the contest of the current legal and real estate market situation in Estonia and to give most likely connections with international approaches as well.""
Nowacki, Pawel, and Pawel Wa_niewski. "The Economic Crisis in Relation to the Baltic Sea Coast Recreational Apartment Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Polandís Baltic Sea coast is one of the most attractive sections of the Baltic Seaís coastline. It has plenty of resorts renowned throughout Europe, with their beginnings as centres of health and recreation in the 18th century. The coastís mild climate makes it a particularly attractive investment zone, especially in light of global warming and the urban over-development of southern Europeís resort areas. Since the 1990s there has been an increase in traffic of patients and holiday-makers from Western Europe. Residents of other Baltic countries and the Netherlands are particularly numerous. These are mainly middle-aged and older people. With regard to medical, health and recreational services, they have the most buying power, which means that they make up a large portion of the effective demand. The studies conducted on the seaside holiday apartment market by the Investment and Real Estate Faculty of the Pozna_ Economic University show that in light of the global economic crisis there has been a deep correction of prices on this market, which will obviously create many investment opportunities on this market. The beginnings of the correction were observed in the fourth quarter of 2008. They relate to a decrease of apartment prices by about 10 per cent ñ 15 per cent, as well as of construction services by about 20 per cent. Based on preliminary study results the authors estimate that in the second half of this year the correction in the prices of newly built apartments and those now being built will amount to 20 per cent ñ 30 per cent, construction services up to 40 per cent, and the prices of land for building holiday apartments from 50 per cent to 70 per cent (counting the price decreases from those of the boom period on the seaside apartment market in 2007 and the first half of 2008). At present there are 15 apartment investments underway on the entire Polish sea coast (within 1 km of the coast line), with a total of 2,291 apartments, including nine investments with a total of about 1,445 apartments in Western Pomerania. Existing, projected and currently constructed lines of communication by land (connected to the German Autobahn system), air (airport in GoleniÛw) and water (ferries to such Baltic ports as Ystad, Copenhagen from _winouj_cie; a water trail from Berlin to the Bay of Szczecin) make Western Pomerania comparable to such Baltic Sea coastal regions as Rostock and Malmˆ.
De Smedt, Bart, and Roel Gevaers. "The Economic Feasibility of Sustainable Logistic Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Climate change, globalization and the increasing energy prices have become important subjects that determine the socio-economic condition. To cope with those changes we need to invest in a more sustainable economy. Priority should be given to the transport and real estate sector, as unlike some other sectors, they have an increasing share in the emission of greenhouse gasses. In this paper we will focus on the impact of sustainable measures in logistic real estate. Nowadays investors hesitate to invest in sustainable measures for real estate because they still have the idea that green investments equal higher costs. Next to the investors, all the other stakeholders ñ users, builders and developers - are also driven by demand, supply and cost uncertainty of green measures. This is referred to as the vicious circle of blame versus responsibility. The aim of this paper is to give a clear financial valuation for a traditional as well as a sustainable logistic warehouse. The paper will take different scenarios of a sustainable warehouse into consideration, depending on their level of sustainability. Based on specific literature it is possible to describe all the typical characteristics of a traditional warehouse on the one hand and a sustainable logistic warehouse on the other hand. The analysis is based on fictive examples because in reality it is very difficult to find traditional and sustainable warehouses with very similar attributes needed to be able to compare them. The financial valuation will be based on the principles and methods used by Lusht concerning Real Estate Valuation (2001). As a conclusion we hope to revise the negative attitude towards sustainable measures in logistic real estate. The positive financial valuation of the sustainable warehouse could be an important factor to convince investors and to increase the supply of sustainable warehouses and lower the impact of buildings on the environment. It also provides a basis for the introduction of green certificates for logistic real estate.
Grissom, Terry, James Berry, and Jim Berry. "The Economics of Development: Integrating Land Economics and Portfolio Analysis." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This study integrates situs theory as defined by Andrews (1971) into comparative investment analysis, approaching a single use development from the perspective of modern investment theory and a potential mixed use development on the same site as a portfolio of uses generating portfolio risk and return trade-offs. The theoretical integration of situs theory, rent theory and portfolio/investment economics is tested against a statistically significant number of development proposal case studies, conducted during distinct economic phases (over time). The research objective extends the perspectives observed in the literature of development choices as the exercise of a real option by quantifying the risk-return patterns associated with the array of development options possible on a given site as supported by the situs process. The empirical documentation is achieved using multiple observations over distinct economic regimes. The inquiry as structured enables specification of the economic nature of a proposed developmentís returns (as either an economic rent, transfer earning or combination of both) and the risk-return combinations that can be used to characterize any given development strategy.
Netzell, Olof. "The Effect of Accessibility on Retail Rents - Testing Integration Value as a Measure of Geographic Location." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "This paper tests whether integration value, a measure of geographic location, can help explain retail rents. The concept integration value, developed within the research field Space Syntax, can be understood as a measure of the accessibility of a certain location in a street network. The measure is constructed using graph theory and uses the shape of the street network as its only input. The hypothesis is tested using data on rental contracts from Downtown Stockholm. Rent per square meter is regressed on integration value, distance to the city centre and a number of other control variables that capture different characteristics of the shop and rental contract. Integration value is correlated with the distance to the city centre which makes this a crucial control variable. A statistically significant effect of integration value on retail rent is found. In the first regression the city centre is defined as the location generally agreed to be the centre of Stockholm (Sergels Torg). Another procedure was also used in which the rental data was used to find the city centre: The inner city was divided into a rectangular grid with limits defined by the outermost shop locations found in the database. The grid had a spacing of 100 meters in both dimensions. A set of regressions were run where the assumed city centre was placed at each point in the grid. The point in the grid where the regression showed the highest fit (R2) was interpreted as the location where the retail market places the city centre.""
Sebastian, Steffen. "The Effect of Focus on the Performance of German Mutual Real Estate Funds." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. We analyze the effect of diversification across property types and regions on the performance of German mutual real estate funds, the predominant vehicle for indirect real estate investment in Germany. We find weak but robust evidence that diversification across property types destroys shareholder value, while regional diversification enhances value. We further find that increased expenses are not rewarded with increased performance.
Muyingo, Henry. "The Effect of Profit Requirements on the Maintenance Costs of Housing Companies in Sweden." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. There has been a growing debate about the increasing level of under-maintenance in the Swedish housing stock especially in properties constructed under the ìmillion dwellings programî in the late 1960s. A review of the literature reveals various factors that affect the level of housing maintenance and its cost. Among the factors mentioned is the focus on either cost minimizing or profit maximizing depending on the whether the property owner is a private company or a municipal company. Swedish private housing companies tend to have lower costs in the maintenance of their properties as compared to their municipal owned counterparts. Do the above results confirm the idea that maintenance costs are an effect of profit requirements by the company management? The regulations governing financial reporting in Sweden stipulate what can be included in maintenance costs and thus can be used when making comparisons on the levels of maintenance in different companies. To test the hypothesis on profit requirements the cost levels reported in a number of private and municipal housing companies together are analysed. The same is done for another group of municipal housing companies only. A multiple regression of a model from balanced panel data on maintenance costs in the companies under study appears to reveal that profits have no effect on the level of costs of the maintenance carried out.
Borg, Lena, Abukar Warsame, and Mats Wilhelmsson. "The Effect of Subsidy on Housing Construction Stocks in Various Regions of Sweden." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Governments around the world utilize various types of subsidies in order to counter problems of housing shortages and affordability concerns. Reduced interest rate or alternative investments of construction loans are examples of subsidy policies on the supply side that are intended to offset high construction costs and thus boost the housing stocks. Vouchers and direct financial aid for low-income households belong to the demand side of the subsidy policies. These subsidy policies may be expected to have different effects on both the housing stocks of different regions and the distribution of tenure types of housing stocks within a region. Until recently, Sweden has had both general and targeted subsidy policies. An interesting question is whether these types of subsidies produced the intended objectives of increasing the housing stocks. First, the efficiency of general subsidy and its effect on housing stocks of all the regions before it was abolished will be examined. Secondly, the replaced targeted subsidy and how it fared with its objectives as well as how it impacted the tenure neutrality of different types of housing will be analyzed. A multiple regression of two models from un-balanced panel data of construction costs variables in seven regions will be analyzed. Our result seem to indicate that a general subsidy is expected to be ineffective since it may increase the existing stocks of low demand region but not the housing stocks of big regions where the demand is high. A targeted subsidy may change the balance between different types of housings since lower construction costs due to the subsidy could favor the development of certain profitable housing type.
Martens, Bob. "The ERES Digital Library: Online Access to Proceedings." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "This contribution presents the initial steps in the creation of a Digital Library of previous ERES proceedings. The series of ERES conferences started in 1993, but their visibility has predominantly been limited to the ERES website. Sixteen conferences related to Real Estate resulted in an interesting output of thousands of papers and it makes sense to have this wider and easier available to the audience. The average annual ""production"" counts to approx. 300 entries and the growing amount of information requires guiding, thus allowing to search entries of a certain author (within a certain time span), as well a possibility to retrieve records on a specific topic related to Real Estate. The used interface of the ERES Digital Library ( was created in the framework of an EU-IST project, called SciX (Open Scientific Exchange of Information). First results on the gathering of initial content will be presented. At the time of writing over 1,200 entries are recorded. With the support of previous conference organizers, a retrospective recording of all entries is aimed at. In the framework of this contribution, also ideas on future developments of the ERES Digital Library will be presented."
Kann, Johann Sebastian, Philipp Kaufmann, and Gunther Maier. "The EU-Energy Directive and Real Estate Appraisal: The Case of Austria." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "In 2002 the European Union passed the directive 2002/91/EC, ìdirective on the energy performance of buildingsî, as a key element of its strategy to comply with the Kyoto protocol. The aim of the directive is to improve the energy efficiency of buildings in the area of the European Union. A key instrument of this regulation is the ìenergy performance certificateî which aims at improving the information about the energy efficiency of buildings with the intention to let the market establish a shadow price for the level of energy efficiency. Accordingly, real estate appraisers will have to take into account the aspect of energy efficiency when appraising a building or at least the availability of an energy performance certificate for this building. This paper looks at the way how the EU directive is reflected in real estate appraisals in Austria. Since the directive had to be implemented in their respective national legal frameworks by the member states, we will discuss the implementation in Austria after briefly reviewing the regulation at the EU-level. The main part of the paper will report the results of an empirical analysis where we analyze over 300 recent appraisals for how they incorporate or fail to incorporate energy efficiency considerations. This analysis is augmented by a survey of appraisers that investigates their views and practices in this respect.""
Sahk, Kaarel, and Kalev Sepp. "The Fundamentals of Recreational and Leisure Property Valuation: Beyond and Unbiased." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In the context of describing recreational and leisure property, it is very important to refresh the understandings of the terms ëlocalí and ëglobal fundamentalsí as terms loading the separated viewpoint with the market situation. The abovementioned approach brings us to the importance of market data and its analysis and also to its mutual and bilateral connection with the cultural situation. The latter is strongly connected with the description of the quality of life and concerns the modus vivendi, i.e. the lifestyles of the consumers who are affecting the curve of demand of both types of properties. The risk in this area has been discussed by Sjˆberg and Engelberg and in further developments of their work. The other aspect concerns concentrating on the relationship with the target group of users, as showed by Felipe and Betty Ann Korzenny, and on the orientation of it, first of all, to the lifestyle, culture and identity through real estate, using an analysis of the abovementioned global and local terms. This last aspect means that, commonly, the valuation of recreational and leisure property is impossible without accounting for these influences.
Triantafyllopoulos, Nikolaos. "The Housing Bubble in Greece." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. As is the case in most European countries, during the last ten years, housing prices in urban areas of Greece have increased by about 10% annually. This phenomenon was particularly exaggerated during the period 2005-2006, while the number of property transactions and the rate of new constructions recorded were higher than ever. This pattern is generally attributed to the financial liberalisation, the mortgage market development, and the fall in credit interest rates. State policies have undoubtedly played a major role. Furthermore, financial liquidity has largely resulted to the high prevalence of underground economy and money laundering, which is carried out via real estate ñ something that has been helped by Greek legislation and banking practices. Moreover, in addition to the large tax advantages for housing applied in Greece for a long time, state agencies anticipated the announcement of the date of imposition of VAT on new constructions and the increase in taxes in property transactions in 2006. These proposals were exaggerated and highlighted by the media and also by professionals, such as real estate agents, construction companies and banks. This government policy has led to serious economic inefficiencies, by drawing excessive resources into residential and second home constructions. In this paper, some theoretical issues about market inefficiency are discussed, based on the case study of the Greek housing bubble.
Priess, Udo. "The ìDegree of Property Equipmentî as ìState of Development Indexî of a Property." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
De Smedt, Bart. "The Impact of Accessibility on the Location Value of Commercial Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Gohs, Andreas. "The Impact of Biases in Appraisal-Based Real Estate Indices on the Assessed Risk of Direct Investments in Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Liu, Nan. "The Impact of Counterurbanisationon on House Prices: Filtering Model Perspective." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "ìCounter-urbanisationî is a phenomenon referring population flows from a more concentrated state (usually urban cores) to less concentrated areas (rural areas). The causes for this phenomenon are said to be due to decentralisation of industrial activities in the urban areas, migration to rural areas because of change in lifestyle and tastes, and increasing long-distance commuting as a result of the expansion of the transportation networks and development in ICT. Counter-urbanisation has become widespread in most developed countries. While local residents in the rural communities may benefit from it in some aspects (e.g. developments in service industries); there are also concerns. From the housing market perspective, local residents are often argued to be outbid by incomers (Stockdale et al, 2000, Lewis et al, 1991, Gilligan, 1987, and Shucksmith, 1981), because the urban incomers tend to have higher income. These claims however, lack empirical support. Furthermore, the segmentation of housing markets and changes in market dynamics have been overlooked in the literatures, which is particularly important given that the term ìsubmarketî has both quality and geographical dimensions. Under this motivation, this research aims to provide both a theoretical model and econometrical evidence on the influences on the counter-urbanisation on rural housing markets. The study is based on the concept of filtering. The filtering process has been discussed in various papers (Hoyt 1939, Lowry 1960, Grigbsy, 1963, Olsen, 1969, Sweeny 1974, Ohls, 1975, Braid, 1984, and Rothenberg et al, 1991). Although varying in their arguments, there is a common similarity among these papers: filtering begins with new constructions of highquality housing caused by some exogenous factors, families move into new houses leaving their former housing vacant, this shifts the demand for the housing that they occupied formerly, reducing house prices in this submarkets and thereby allowing families in the lower quality submarket to ìfilter upî (Weicher & Thibodeau, 1988). One could argue if the rural housing market is considered as a single market place, a net inflow of population would have the following straightforward impacts on house prices: in short term, when new constructions are constrained, increase in housing demand will lead a rise in house prices; in longer term, when constructions are injected into the market, supply function will be shifted to provide more dwellings. New market equilibrium will form, at which price level is determined by the quantity of new dwellings supplied and demanded (the new equilibrium price can be lower, equal to or higher than the price at the original equilibrium). The conclusion on whether in-migration to the rural areas cause increase in rural house prices therefore is not definitive in the longer term. One the other hand, if the rural housing market is treated as consisting of a set of differing quality submarkets, inmigrationís impact on house prices can be more complicated and interested to analyse. In this study, a relatively simple filtering framework is presented where, there are two housing submarkets within a rural community ñ a large number of lower quality dwellings (occupied by the majority of rural population) and a small number of higher quality dwellings (occupied by minority high income local residents). The model is used to explore the impact on prices in both rural and urban housing markets associated with an inflow of urban residents based on a variety of different assumptions about construction activity, and the degree of substitution between submarkets. For example, one could argue that new constructions in the higher quality submarkets may trigger filtering, and some of the lower quality submarket households will be able to move up to better houses at relatively low prices. If large flows of urban-to-rural in-migration occupy the dwellings otherwise would have been occupied by local households originally in the lower quality submarkets, newcomers would have negative impact on housing for the locals. Based on this theoretical analysis, the conditions under which adverse affects on rural households would occur are identified. Further, an econometric model is proposed that could explore the extent to which theoretical predictions are supported by empirical evidence. This analysis provides a clearer picture on the consequences of counter-urbanisation in the rural community; therefore will be beneficial in terms of policy decision making concerning the rural areas.""
Kramer, Bert, Tessa Kuijl, and Marc Francke. "The Impact of House Price Index Specification Levels on the Risk Profile of Housing Corporations." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Asset Liability Management (ALM) models for housing corporations work on the basis of stochastic scenario models for important risk and return drivers such as interest and inflation rates, construction costs and sales prices of houses. Given the situation of the housing corporation (current real estate portfolio, asset management strategy, loan portfolio, etc.), these variables directly influence the risk and return profile of these organizations at both short and long horizons. The scenario characteristics are usually based on long term historical time series of relevant indices. For sales prices of houses, different indices exist with different specification levels. House price indices are available at both a national and a local level. And different house price indices can be used for different house types (from apartments to detached). In this paper we analyze the impact of the choice of the specification level of house price indices on the risk - return profile of housing corporations. And we draw some conclusions on the optimal specification level.
Westerheide, Peter. "The Impact of Low-Income Home Owners on the Volatility of Housing Markets." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Our paper analyses the relationship between homeownership rates as a proxy for the ratio of low income homeowners and the volatility of housing prices. There might be a destabi-lizing impact because income risks of low income households might be higher, financial resources tend to be scarcer and their houses are probably financed with a higher leverage. Lower mobility and sticky wages of low income homeowners might on the other hand have a stabilizing impact on housing prices. Our results point to a positive impact of home ownership rates on house price volatility. Besides that house price volatility is influenced by the growth rate of house prices, GDP volatility and the level of interest rates. A VAR analysis suggests that the higher volatility in countries with high home ownership rates is caused by a greater sensitivity of house prices to changes in GDP growth rates.
Thanh, Nguyen Bao. "The Impact of Property Rights on Urban Land Use Transformation - District 1st, Ho Chi Minh Case Study." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Land belongs to the entire people with the State as the representative owner. This study explores the relationship between urban land use transformation and property rights over 15 years by studying in detail the spatial and property history of a particular area, and tracing transformations in urban spatial to the major factors influencing property owners who caused or permitted these changes to occur. This case study will be conducted in the Central Business Area of the district 1 in Ho Chi Minh City, where zoning systems controlled, and continue to control, the kinds of land uses and therefore, the private construction appearance to answer the question whether the property rights in Hochiminh City have characteristics that are similar to property rights in general. Methods used to study the pattern of land cover change and property boundary changes over time are aerial photo interpretation and geographic system analysis (GIS). Processes driving urban spatial transform through the agency of property owners and tenants were studies using project development process and urban censuses for the area, content analysis of 26 questionnaires and local newspapers, interviews, and property title searches. The detailed study drew on the legal and regulatory context for development of property rights in land and spatial, and on the history of construction and of planning in the central area. Outcomes are obtainable in a series of maps of land and property change in 15 years. Housing changed from first storey house to fourth storey house up to complex commercial-residential, and property holdings shifted from small to very large parcels. The pitch is trying to explore the real estate properties as a pattern on the landscape and a set of dynamic human relationships, repeated negotiation, dispute resolution, and uncertainties. Freehold other than simple ownership is shown to be important in urban spatial change. Multiple factors, which include property rights, gentrification, are shown to work together and to cause urban spatial transformation. The recent study concludes that the regular negotiations about property rights in real estate property, both formal and informal, make a major contribution to how people assume about property and what kinds of property uses to make of it. The study suggests that examining planning as a property process and recognizing it as part of a larger negotiation process with respected to property rights, will improve the success of planning implementation.
Siniak, Nikolai, Arturas Kaklauskas, Uladzimir Valetka, and Paulius Kazokaitis. "The Impact of the Economic Crisis in the Developed Countries on the Real Estate Market and Public Sector in the Transition Economies - A Belarusian Case Study." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper attempts to identify some aspects of the relationship between the crisis, real estate market and public services. It is known that the difficulties of construction and real estate in the early 1990s were largely responsible for a decade of low growth. And yet, few in academia seem to care much about the construction sector and real estate. Paper distinguishes three aspects of the economic crisis ñ the banking crisis, the credit squeeze, and the recession ñ and their different effects on high income countries and developing countries, and on the real estate, some public and private sectors. It is examined the behavior of American and European real estate markets after the mortgage crisis in comparison with transition countries real estate markets, with an emphasis on Belarus and Russia. A number of hypotheses about the relative performance of the CEE countries relative to their western counterparts are investigated. The questions addressed are the ways construction firms cope with the volatility of construction, the speculative or market fundamentals driven nature of those fluctuations. We also try to make clear if state and local regulation is responsible for speculative behavior and find better ways to predict construction demand and development of real estate markets. Predicting the development of real estate markets has always been a major concern for market participants, especially for investors. The amount and depth of data about a subject market as well as the stability of the market's institutional environment largely impact the quality of market forecasts. Therefore, the prediction of emerging real estate markets is especially difficult. Using the case of Belarus, this paper explores to which extent economic-mathematical techniques can be helpful in the context of predicting the development of an emerging real estate market. Statistical and econometric techniques are employed to find the drivers that influence the major housing market and its development in future. A variety of different factors is examined in the time period 1992 to 2008 based on the macroeconomic multifactor model. We analyze the relation between incomes, gross domestic product, investment, R&D expenditure and real estate prices. Econometric input-output analysis as a primary technique for understanding the aggregated relationship between the construction sector and the various sectors that are linked with it either upstream or downstream in the productive chain is applied to evaluate the potential of Housing Construction doubling to 2011 in Belarus to overcome economic recession. It then also examines: - the pattern of government responses, and the impact on real estate market, public sector and public spending; - the implications for some selected public services; - the effects on the private companies involved in public sector contracts, and - some discussion of the role of the state in the Times of Financial crises.
Geurts, Tom G., and Constantine Kontokosta. "The Impact of the Olympic Games on Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The Olympic Games are increasingly viewed as a potential catalyst for urban transformation, increased investment, and social, economic, and political change. They are expected to bring tourists, foreign investment, and attention to the host city and nation. However, are these expectations justified? Although there have been numerous attempts to assess the impacts and effects of the Olympic Games on the host city and nation (for example, Preuss 2004 and Kasimati 2003), few have focused on the institutional reforms in the host country that are needed for political, social, and economic integration into global markets. This study tests the hypothesis that the Olympics Games accelerate this integration and induce the political, regulatory, legal, and economic reforms to support increased foreign investment in real estate. If the Olympics bring about institutional change and global market integration, it can be expected that aggregate levels of foreign investment in real estate in the host country will increase, as perceived opportunities and reduced levels of (institutional) risk attract new investors (Geurts and Jaffe 1996). Indeed, the positive effect of hosting an Olympic Game may lead to a reduction of the often observed ìhome-assetî bias. On the other hand, if foreign investment remains below pre-Olympic levels or those of comparable countries, the Games may provide only short-term and/or superficial impacts on institutions and markets. Using a study group of five Olympic Games spanning the past 20 years, this paper applies a modified difference-in-difference model to evaluate the impact of the Olympic Games on the level and growth rate of foreign real estate investment in the host country (Slaughter 2001). For each host, comparable countries are selected using a composite of regulatory indices from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation, and the Fraser Institute, as well as macroeconomic, demographic, and geographic variables to create a control group for the analysis. This matching technique allows for a more precise estimation of Olympic-related impacts by reducing the potential error of the coefficients due to selection bias and unobserved differences between groups.
Bramley, Glen, Neil Dunse, Sotiris Thanos, and David Watkins. "The Implications of Residential Mix upon Value and Affordability of New Housing." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The question of what sort of residential mix is most ësustainableí is much debated by UK policy makers. It would seem obvious that an appropriate mix of new housing provision would cater for the diverse needs and incomes of households. However, there is strong evidence within the UK that housing developers have been reluctant to provide for this and rather have had a tendency to focus upon the construction of either high density apartments or large detached houses (Bramley & Brown 2008). The question arises as to whether the UK planning system should more actively promote a broader mix of housing developments? If so, it will need a stronger evidence base and diagnostic tools. Hence, the aims of this research are to analyse the implication of residential mix (type and density) upon house prices and use this output to simulate viability of alternative residential development schemes. The research will be undertaken in two stages. First, to develop hedonic house price models suitable for analysing values associated with different mix and density across England. This analysis will provide the capability to predict the likely sale prices for different hypothetical mixes of development in different locations. Second, utilise these hedonic prices, to provide a modelling capability to estimate development costs and residual land values across England, for defined new product mixes. By combining the hedonic price predictions and development costs it is then possible to provide an analysis of development viabilities (residual values) for a range of possible scheme mixes and densities. This would be a valuable addition to the information base for local planning authorities by indicating which residential mixes are most likely to be preferred by developers and which would be unlikely to proceed.
Buegl, Robert. "The Importance of Social Criteria for Responsible Property Investment: A Swiss View on the Market Success of Sustainable Real Estate Funds." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Recently, effort was undertaken to define criteria for sustainable property investment (L¸tzkendorf and Lorenz, 2007; Moffat and Kohler, 2008; Pivo, 2008). One form of sustainable property investment are sustainable real estate funds, which are now at the stage of market introduction. The problem is that many sustainability rating systems for real estate funds still do not adequately integrate social sustainability. Also the market acceptance of sustainable real estate funds is largely unknown. The building stock is not only a prerequisite for the immediate satisfaction of basichuman needs. It is also a framework condition for higher-order needs, including developing the capabilities of residents or realizing social justice and sustainable lifestyles (cf. Barr and Gilg, 2006; Georg, 1998; Rawls, 1999; Sen, 2001). We performed a two-step study with institutional real estate investors and real estate fund suppliers in the German-speaking parts of Switzerland. Focus groups (N = 15), along with an e-mail-based questionnaire study (N = 68), were used to define and assess sustainability criteria for real estate funds in respect to their importance for market success. We also investigated the key financial stakeholdersë market acceptance of sustainable real estate funds. About three quarter of the responding institutional investors are willing to invest in sustainable real estate funds. Criteria for sustainable social infrastructure must inform ecological and economic assessments of real estate funds in order to avoid risks for ecology, socialmilieu, and return.There is a need for sustainable urban development that meets the demands of sustainable real estate funds (cf. Scholz et al., 1996, 1997). Besides ecological impacts, sustainable real estate investments have to consider the cultural sphere of human-environment systems (cf. Scholz, in prep.; Scholz and Binder, 2004). As a consequence, there is a need for sustainability learning of key stakeholder groups (cf. Hansmann et al., 2003). These results may inform the design, assessment and marketing of sustainable real estate funds.
Voigtländer, Michael. "The Inflation-Hedging Properties of Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Using panel data augmented Fama-Schwert regressions this study analyses the inflation hedging properties of different types of real estate assets. The results reveal that real estate equities like other equities, too, do not provide any hedge against inflation. Moreover, the correlation is negative, indicating that increasing prices have a negative impact on real estate returns. One explanation for this finding is, that investors adjust their expectations when overall business activity weakens in response to increasing inflation. Direct investments in real estate show a more differentiated picture. While retail real estate does not provide a hedge against inflation, office as well as residential real estate returns rise with inflation. In particular, residential real estate is characterized by quite robust inflation hedging properties probably due to the low substitutability of dwellings.""
Rui, Chen. "The Initial Return Performance of Asia REITs IPOs." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have been an available investment in the U.S. since the 1960s. REITs are publicly traded unit funds which invest primarily in income-producing real estate assets. Only 5 years after the first introduction in Japan, the REITs market in Asia doubles each year. Within 5 years REITs controlled 27 billion US dollar In 2005 observers expected that until 2010 the REITs could control about 160 billion US dollar in real estates. Shares of companies going public for the first time are typically at a price below that achieved on their first day of trading, giving subscribing investors large positive returns (Ibbotson and Ritter, 1995; Loughran, Ritter and Rydqvist, 1994). Therefore, either the offering price is set too low or the investors systematically overvalue IPOs on the first trading day. Since the results of studies indicate few if any departures from efficiency in the aftermarket (Ibbotson, 1975) positive initial returns can be attributed to a downward bias in the offering price, that is, IPOs are underpriced. No complete explanation of the underpricing phenomenon exists, though various theories based on different rationales shed light on the factors that may be influential. First information asymmetry (Baron,1982; Rock, 1986), second signalling (Allen and Faulhaber, 1989; Grinblatt and Hwang, 1989; Welch, 1989; Benveniste and Spindt, 1989), third legal liability and litigation risk (Tinic, 1988; Hughes and Thakor, 1992) and finally information cascade effects (Welch, 1992). The evidence for Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) IPOs is less consistent. Early studies found evidence of overpricing; a 1990s study found underpricing. So far there is few works pointing out the existence of REITs underpricing of IPO in Asia. The author's preliminary study try to examine the IPOs of the REITs in Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and investigate the evidence for either underpricing or overpricing of IPO units over the first 10 and 20 days of trading.""
Chaney, Alain. "The Interest Rate Sensitivity of Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Surprisingly little research has been performed on the impact of interest rate changes on the value of properties, especially when considering the facts that (1) real estate plays an important role for many financial investors, (2) interest rate risk is difficult to diversify and (3) traditional estimates of the interest rate sensitivity, i.e. Macaulay and Modified Duration, are not applicable to real estate. The present study gives a better understanding of the real estate interest rate sensitivity. This is achieved by modelling the whole life of a typical but simplified (office) investment property, based on a representative and exclusive data set for the Swiss investment real estate market. The interdependencies between interest rates, inflation, office market rents, current rent paid and expenses are defined and modelled empirically. As opposed to the simplistic analytical formulae of past studies, making use of the Monte Carlo Simulation allows to incorporate explicitly the uncertainty of the underlying stochastic processes, of their interdependencies and of the modelling uncertainties in general. The proposed approach allows not only to find a reliable and empirically defined estimate of the real estate interest rate sensitivity, but also to indicate the detailed uncertainty of the finale estimate as well as the precise impact of changes in major model parameters. Results show that the interest rate sensitivity of a typical office property is 13.1 %, whereas this estimate is associated with a standard deviation of 5.96 %. The risk premium and the degree of rotation of the interest curve are found to be the two prime determinants of the interest rate sensitivity, while the vacancy rate, the term of lease and the years between rent reviews influence the sensitivity, too, but to a much lesser extent.
Plimmer, Frances, and William McCluskey. "The Introduction of a Value-Based Property Tax - Barriers and Drivers: A Case Study of Central and Eastern European Countries." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. As part of their applications to join the European Union, ten central European countries are required to meet certain criteria, including stability of institutions, rule of law, democracy, a functioning market economy and the ability to adhere to the aims of political, economic and monetary union. Over the past 18 years, since the change from a central economy, there is evidence that these countries have sought (by varying degrees) to develop a range of local government functions supported by local finance, in many cases, including a range of real estate-based taxes. In the absence of a fully functioning property market, it has not been possible to base the taxing of real estate open market values. Instead, either an area or formulaic basis, or more recently on a modified area basis, which seeks to reflect relative ìvaluesî within different geographical zones has been developed. Thus, there is evidence of a growing shift towards value-based locational factors within the tax bases developed in some of the countries, but there is also evidence of resistance to such a move. There are political as well as practical reasons for at least being cautious about introducing a totally market-based local tax. Until the emergence of a fully-functioning property market for all taxable property types within the jurisdiction, there will be a paucity of suitable evidence for achieving an ad valorem property tax base in every case. There may be an opportunity to run two systems (value-based in cities and area-based in rural areas) in some cases, but there are also arguments for not having an ad valorem tax base at all, with other countries demonstrating how non-market value bases systems can achieve both tax payer and tax spender approval. This paper will explore the drivers and barriers to a market value-based real estate tax system in central and eastern European countries, based on their development of democratic institutions (particularly local government and their functions), their strategies for developing a local property tax, the level of funding involved, the approach within their existing tax systems for dealing with social and environmental issues and how the wider arguments for and against a value-based tax are being reflected.
Palm, Peter. "The Issue of Customer Satisfaction in Real Estate Companies." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The purpose of the thesis is to: - Analyse what instrument the real estate sector use to measure customer satisfaction. Today a range of such methods are used and these will be compared both concerning aim, data collection and data analysis. / - Analyse how the real estate companies measure the effectiveness in their organisation. The methods used will be compared both concerning methods for benchmarking and for business ratio. / - On the bases of these analyses of the methods of today discuss how the methods can be developed and improved. // The firs part will concern what mehods the companies uses, measuring customer satisfaction, and map the market for existing instruments and methods. The second part will concern real estate companies goals and ambitions concerning customer satisfaction. This will be examined through different dokuments from the companies and through intervies with keypersons.""
Wilkinson, Sara J., Kimberley James, and Richard Reed. "The Potential for Retrofitting Green Roofs in the CBD." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Although it has a relatively low profile, one method of increasing sustainability in buildings currently being considered is the provision of green roofs. Most importantly, green roofs have thermal benefits in reducing heat loss and reducing heat gain and also enhancing bio-diversity. Furthermore, green roofs can absorb some of the carbon emissions in the CBD. With the increasing emphasis placed on climate change and much of the emphasis placed on new buildings only, it is accepted that Australia needs to increase the adaptation of the existing commercial building stock (CSIRO, 2002 AECOM 2008). At the same time the city of Melbourne has launched the 1,200 building program which aims to refurbish 1,200 CBD properties before 2020 as part of their policy to become a carbon neutral city by 2020. This paper address the research question: what is the potential of existing buildings in the CBD to accommodate a retrofitted green roof? Furthermore how many buildings are suitable for green roofs? In the process of conducting the analysis this research examined 528 building surveyed in the Melbourne CBD in 2008 and 2009. The paper outlines the types of green roof which can be retrofitted to existing buildings. The outcomes of this research is applicable on a global basis and relevant to all urban centres where existing commercial buildings can become part of the solution to mitigate the impact climate change and enhance the city.
Hutchison, Norman E., Alastair Adair, and Nicky Findlay. "The Pricing of Covenant Strength: The Lenderís Perspective." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009.

"The paper considers how UK lending institutions price covenant strength risk. At the outset of the research in March 2008, few could have forecast the level of turbulence that was to hit the financial markets in the autumn of 2008 and that by the end of the year the UK would officially be in recession. However, many had predicted that the UK commercial property market was overheating. The double digit returns of 2003 to 2006 told a story of capital value appreciation on the back of ìyield chasingî investors aided by cheap and available debt finance. Rental growth did not substantiate the yield compression that occurred over this period. The key question from a lending perspective is whether covenant strength risk was appropriately priced during this period. The paper reports on a series of face to face interviews with eight commercial and retail banks carried out during the summer of 2008. The lenders admitted that at the height of the market covenant strength risk was a relevant criterion in lending decisions, but that it was not the dominant factor. In pricing balance sheet loans, cash flow, lease length and re-letting prospects were more important considerations. Crucially, the emphasis appeared to be on short term trading volumes without fully appreciating the risk posed to the loan book during a down turn in the market. Stress testing loans is laudable provided the inputs reflect the reality of the market, during, and at the end of the loan period. In the securitised market the performance of the rating agencies, key in the pricing of fixed income securities, came in for criticism, and as positions unravel this is worthy of further research. The repricing of debt did occur from mid 2007, but the availability of cheap debt finance was undoubtedly a major reason for the overheating of the commercial market.""

Maier, Gunther, and Shanaka Herath. "The Problem of Similar Properties' Bias and Inefficiency in the Sales Comparison Approach of Real Estate Appraisal." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "The sales comparison approach of real estate appraisal derives the estimated value of a subject property from transaction prices of recently sold similar properties in the local market. In this way only a very limited number of available transaction information is utilized in the appraisal. The paper discusses the industry standard from a statistical point of view and derives hypotheses about its implications for the derived appraisals. An alternative approach based on hedonic price concepts is proposed. In the main part of the paper we use simulation techniques to test for the severity of some of the hypothesized implications and to compare the standard method to our alternative method. Based on some assumptions about the real estate market we randomly generate hypothetical transaction data, apply the two alternative approaches to these data and compare the results. As it turns out, the standard approach is generally inferior to the alternative method. The advantage typically is in the lower standard error of the estimates produced by the alternative approach. In certain constellation""
Fisher, Peter. "The Property Development Process: A Scottish Case." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "An existing model of the commercial property development process was applied to a mixed-use site. The case studied was the redevelopment of 7.7 hectares of previously developed land in central Edinburgh, containing nine listed buildings. 158,000 square metres of accommodation are planned, 65% of which will be residential and 25% offices. The site was marketed in 2000-01, construction began in 2005 with approximately 40% complete by spring 2009. Documents and plans were inspected and site visits conducted. Semi-structured in depth interviews were held with senior executives from all the organisations that were influential in decision making. The commercial model was found to represent the reality of the project environment well, with amendments to cope with mixed-use redevelopment. The overall fate of the site was determined by the interplay of market forces and state policy, yet the detailed evolution of the project was dependent upon the organisations and individuals that became involved. Particular site characteristics and design issues played important roles. ëPlace makingí was fundamental in both planning and financial terms. A genuine mixed-use environment, that is well conceived and managed, was confirmed to be very attractive to the public, residents, businesses and investors. While some listed buildings were sacrificed, involving controversy and delay, conversions of others made a significant contribution both environmentally and financially. These results contribute to the literature of detailed property development cases and refine the model used.""
Battaglia, Francesca, Claudio Porzio, and Gabriele Sampagnaro. "The Quality of Data of Real Estate Direct Market: Does the Lack of Standardization Affect the Predictability of Returns?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The aim of the paper is an investigation on the reliability of historical returns for the Italian property market, where the quality of information seems not standardized. In Italy, such as for many other countries, the returnsí indices for direct markets are provided by several sources that differ among them in terms of methodology adopted (appraisal-based vs transaction-based approaches) and in term of indexís composition. These differences produce a lack of informative standardization that could negatively affects the predictability of market and that can be explained by a strong real estate marketís fragmentation, as well as informative and marketís organizational inefficiency. The implications arising from the existence of not homogeneous indices involve the main market operators such as: real estate funds (referring to their IRR forecasting ability); banks (referring to the estimation of LGD for mortgage loans); investors (referring to their investmentís choices). By using the historical returns provided by four index provider (the period is 2002-2008, returns are quarterly), we submit data to some quantitative tests, designed to investigate the following topics: 1) the smoothing degree of returns caused by appraisal based methodologies 2) the lack of a sufficient degree of homogeneity among the returns of all the property indices. The smoothing effect is investigated through the implementation of an ARIMA process, while the reliability of the dataset is analyzed by comparing the distributions of returns following a stationarity approach. Our results seem to underline a significant level of smoothing of the returns for the main sectors of market (residential, commercial, office) and a divergence of the quality among the sources of data that appear not consistent with an efficient market. Finally, we give an example of how the lack of standardization of real estate database affects the LGDís banks forecast process and the expected IRR of real estate funds.
Razali, Muhammad Najib, David Martin Juanil, and Graeme Newell. "The Quality of Valuation Reports in Malaysia." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The commercial valuation report is a key element in property investment decision making for institutional investors; particularly as the current global financial crisis. Client perceptions of the quality of valuation reports have been assessed previously for the UK, Australia and the US. However, this issue has not been assessed in Asia. The purpose of this paper is to the results of the major survey of user of valuations concerning the quality of valuations reports in Malaysia. This survey as conducted in September 2008 and addressed specific issues regarding the quality of valuation reports including current procedures, satisfaction wit current valuations reports, strengths/ weaknesses of the reports and suggested improvements. This survey has significant implication regarding the quality of valuation reports in Malaysia particularly as an international context.
Ilsjan, Veronika, and Ene Kolbre. "The Quality Rating System in Real Estate Valuation in Estonia." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "Real estate appraisers and market analysts in Estonia use various indicators to characterise the quality of real estate, and even those were mainly for offices and commercial real estate. So far, Estonia had no uniform real estate rating system that would have covered all types of real estate. The need to harmonise and ensure unambiguousness of the quality rating led to working out a new quality rating system for real estate valuation. The article seeks to provide an overview of the Estonian real estate quality rating system used for real estate valuation and the theoretical bases of its development. The new uniform quality rating system covers improved real estate used for residential, office, commercial, warehouse and production purposes. The quality grade in this system characterises the competitiveness of the object to be attractive for a similar type of tenants or buyers. The quality grade of a real estate object is determined on the basis of the potential income of this object considering the sustainability of this object, i.e. the principles of sustainable development and usage have to be taken into consideration in the assessment of every factor. As the market demand is the main factor influencing the income potential and sustainable development of real estate, then quality grade is determined based on the principle of market demand. Income potential is calculated on the basis of three characteristics: location and use of the parcel of land; quality of construction and management of the real estate. Each characteristic (location and use of parcel, construction quality and real estate management) is evaluated taking into account the factors that influence the respective characteristic and the situation where factual information on the object is insufficient. The rating is awarded to each characteristic separately, in a three-point system. The aggregate quality grade rating of a real estate object is formed on the basis of the assessments of the three characteristics.""
Chen, Jie, and Aiyong Zhu. "The Relationship between Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Household Consumption in China." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The paper investigates the relationship between changes in housing wealth, financial wealth and the trend movements of household consumption in urban China. By employing the VECM cointegration model, we demonstrate that there is a unique long-run cointegrating relationship between the household consumption, disposable income, financial wealth and housing wealth in urban China. Meanwhile, we find that the housing wealth is the mere factor to restore the long run equilibrium relationship when the cointegrated system is disturbed by external shock. In addition, our permanent-transitory variance decomposition analysis indicates that nearly all variance in the movement of consumption is permanent, supporting the classical random walk hypothesis of consumption behavior. However, a large proportion of variance in the short-run movements of housing wealth is found to be transitory.
Jay, Graeme, and François Viruly. "The Relevance and Importance of the Needs of the Property Industry in South Africa in Informing the Curriculum Development of Post Graduate Property Studies." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "University studies undertaken by any student will not only be informed and influenced by the current body of knowledge that exists in the particular area of study that the student intends embarking upon, but in many instances, also by the requirements that potential employers and the industry may have that the graduate will eventually be working in. In other words, the relevance of the education that is provided by Universities is not only to be tested by the quality of the research output of its academic staff but also by the view taken by industry of the ability of the said Universitiesí graduates to become valuable employees and indeed, in future, potential employers of the future, as well as being competent and well respected practitioners in their respective fields. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the results of a study undertaken of senior management of large companies operating in the property industry in South Africa. The focus of the study was to investigate what knowledge and competence is required by the property industry in South Africa of students who have completed their post graduate studies. The hypothesis of such a study would then be to determine whether or not the curriculum of the post graduate programmes like that offered in Property Development and Management by the School of Construction Economics and Management at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, was considered to be relevant by those surveyed and therefore how the results of such a study should inform curriculum development on such post graduate programmes in future. Apart from providing an indication of the body of knowledge that property companies require of South African graduates, the research will also suggest the academic requirements of property programmes in emerging countries.""
Visser, Petra. "The Reliable Measurement of House Price Developments in Volatile Times." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. In times of crisis, such as now, the number of transactions has dropped dramatically and in what way can traditional House price indices cope with this situation and are the outcomes still reliable? What research method to construct a HPI is the best way to deal with the dramatic fall in the amount of transactions?. The conclusion is that in volatile times traditional methods, such as repeat sales and hedonic pricing are not sufficient and generate unreliable outcomes, certainly when we analyse smaller areas (e.g. neighbourhoods), whereas the WOX HPI, which makes use of a Hybrid Method still generates reliable outcomes.
Ting, Kien Hwa, Chu Yao Tan, Usilappan Mani, and Mohd Yunus Abdul. "The Role of Residential Properties in a Mixed Asset Portfolio." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This study examines the role of Malaysian residential properties in providing portfolio diversification benefits in Malaysian mixed asset portfolios. The mixed asset portfolio comprises shares (represented by Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, Kuala Lumpur Second Board Index, Kuala Lumpur Property Sector Index), bond (represented by Malaysian Government Securities Index) and Malaysian residential properties (represented by the Malaysian House Price Indices for the various house types and geographical locations). The mean-variance framework is used to determine the optimal asset allocations in terms of preferred house types and geographical locations with other financial assets for the 1Q2000-3Q2006 study period. The findings of this study demonstrate that ex-post efficient portfolios typically devote a significant allocation to residential properties (up to 66.68%), which will improve the risk-adjusted performance up to 73.87%. Further improvement of risk-adjusted returns can be achieved (up to 89.79%) by adding one more different residential property class into the mixed asset portfolios that already consists of one residential property class. Investors are also able to construct well diversified mixed asset portfolios by incorporating residential properties from two different districts while achieving higher risk-adjusted performance. This study concludes that there are diversification benefits by incorporating residential properties in a mixed asset portfolio in the Malaysian investment context.
Faye, Benoit, and Eric Le Fur. "The Seasonality of the Transactions and the Real Estate Cycle." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The seasonality of the real-estate market is a recognized phenomenon although little studied, notably in its relation with the real-estate cycle. By using a database on the real-estate transactions of the city of Bordeaux, we investigate here the links between the movements of the cycle and the modifications of the seasonality of the prices, for the whole market and by type of possessions. This descriptive approach allows to put the bases of a more relevant modelling of the prices series. On all transactions of the Bordeaux market (more than 170000 sales from 1985 to 2005), we obtain two main results. First, the amplitude of seasonality is related to the market growth rate. In addition, each break in trend prices implies a period of arrhythmia whose duration is proportional to the magnitude of the break. Secondly, these statistical relationships are specific to each type of surface. In conclusion, the local nature of the study should be extended to check the robustness and possibly refine the methods used.
Najib, Muhammad Razali. "The Significance of House Price Market in Malaysian Property Market." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The residential property market in Malaysia has been experiencing rapid growth due to the growth of population and economic since 1990. This paper will analyse house prices in specific locations in Malaysia for the past 18 years to determine the significant of housing price market in Malaysia. Using full details regarding on property market report particularly in house price section, a more detailed analysis of the significance of house price market in Malaysia will be carried out. This includes details of residential property prices, variations in property listing, sales volumes, and structure and market behaviour especially during recession.
Newell, Graeme, and Baum Andrew. "The Significance of Property in Sovereign Wealth." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Yeh, Kuang-Yih, and Hao-Ching Hsia. "The Study of Value of Activity Time on Weekdays by Using Activity-Based Approach." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Value of time plays a significant role in the evaluation of investment effectiveness of transportation plans. Therefore, it is a prerequisite to accurately estimate value of time savings to meaningfully evaluate transportation policies. In this study, the focus is on weekday activities and associated travel behaviors. The evaluation of individualsí time allocation behavior on weekdays and an activity choice model has been investigated in this study for analyzing the preference of individualsí time allocation. The activity choice model specifically takes into account the state of the individual time allotment on weekdays and subjective evaluation of time use on weekdays. There results show that : 1) The socioeconomic conditions have strong effects on workersí time allocation. 2) The priority of activity time allocation would affect time allocation of workers significantly. 3) Furthermore, priority of different activities will produce different marginal utility. Therefore, the priority of activity should be considered before establishment of a model of activity time value in the future.
Traudes, Jeroen, and Wim van der Post. "The Use of Land Development Concessions in the Dutch Urban Regeneration." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This study considers the benefits that could arise from the introduction of land development concessions in Dutch urban regeneration. The process of urban regeneration is a complex assignment that is generally characterized by stagnation. The nature of the land development concession concerns that public and private parties cooperate together in an agreed development plan for a relatively long term (20-30 years). This paper first briefly looks at the primary factors that generate the current stagnation from an institutional point of view. Following a brief assessment of the origins, we explore if the length of the partnerships based on land development concessions can guarantee a more fluent process. The sharing of costs as well as (long term) benefits might stimulate the willingness of involved parties to cooperate. The paper compares different kinds of existing concession models in Dutch urban regeneration, as well as potentially powerful models that are rooted in foreign countries (Germany, UK and Denmark). The question is whether these instruments are successful as well as if these are able to fit in the Dutch institutional context. The authors give some suggestions to improve the process by institutional structuration. The paper concludes by a reflection on the power of partnerships in redevelopment.
de Garis, Simon. "The Valuation of Rural Leasehold Land in Victoria, Australia." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Rural leasehold land is found in all areas of Victoria.The most common form of ownership is freehold.Leasehold land would represent less than 10 percent of rural land use, and it is utilised,usually for cropping or the grazing of livestock. This paper examines the features of a typical rural lease and the specific requirements of a significant lessor with large areas of property available to lease. The land surrounds Lake Hume in North Eastern Victoria. 84 rentals have been reviewed in 2008. This forms a case study for the paper. A methodology is adopted to calculate the rental or annual leasehold value, which is only used for the grazing of livestock. Firstly,one must be conversant with economic returns in the grazing industries. This is done by comparing the gross margin per ha of the grazing industries. The methodology involves examination of the current demand for rural land by sales,agistment rates (short term grazing), and examination and analysis of leases in the district. The methodology arises from an estimation of the productive capacity of the land known as the Dry Sheep Equivalent (DSE). The estimate is DSE per hectare. This method applies to all livestock. Once the productive capacity is determined it can be multiplied by a rate per hectare derived from market data, to reveal a rental value per hectare. The methodology applies to all types of rural land with varying productive capacities.Specific conditions in the lease may modify the $ rate per ha as analysed from sales. The methodology is very reflective of current market conditions. The methodology could also be applied to cropping land. In this case the productive capacity standard would be tonnes per ha of crop. The leasehold value or rental value of rural land is a direct reflection of the productive capacity of the land
Stoop, E.C.. "To Sell or Not to Sell? That's the Question: A Model to Generate Scenarios for Selling Dutch Social Rented Housing." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. Although the Dutch housing associations are financially independent since the mid nineties, the conduct of these organisations is still regulated by the government. As a consequence, they have several social tasks which imply uneconomic investments in dwellings as well their environment, without hazarding the financial continuity of their organisation. Selling parts of their rented dwellings is a way to finance these uneconomic investments and to guarantee their financial continuity. However, housing associations cannot unrestrictedly sell dwellings out of their housing stock. One of their tasks is to provide accommodation for households who are not able to provide in their own housing, like households with a low income. So a minimum number of dwellings are required in order to guarantee housing for those households. This paper presents a model to calculate the minimum required number of dwellings, by combining household incomes, housing prices and the changing distribution of dwellings. The model can be applied at multiple geographical based levels, for instance at municipality level. The paper will go into the model and its outcomes. After some background information, it starts with two different theoretical calculations of the match of housing prices and household incomes. The housing prices are calculated by using values determined under the Dutch Real Estate Appraisal Act. Next it calculates three scenarios based on the theoretical combinations and the current distribution of housing among renters and owners as well as taking into account the way users move house. These scenarios generate different outcomes in regard to the number of social rented dwellings that could be sold. Which scenario is best used differs per region. After presenting the outcome of the model the paper ends with a discussion on limitations of the model and its implication for the key question: to sell or not to sell social rented housing.
Zanlorenzi, Elena. "Tourism ìSwedish Styleî - Why does the country attract so many tourists as well as investors and what does it mean for its economy?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The paper is about the tourism sector, its influence on the economy and the extraordinary choice of accommodation offered in Sweden: 1. Tourism in Sweden has increased dramatically in recent years and interest is still rising in line with the number of new facilities. The number of foreign nights spent in Sweden has grown since the 1990ies by almost 100%. As a destination, Sweden has followed international volume trends and has even outperformed Europe as a whole. The aim of the Swedish tourism policy is to be a highly attractive tourist destination and tourism has to be competitive in the long term, contributing to sustainable growth throughout the country. 2. Not only tourism influences the Swedish economy. The country is among Europeís best-performing economies and it is one of the worldís most attractive locations of foreign direct investment. High liquidity, an outstanding transparency, low transaction costs and investor-friendly business procedures are making the real estate sector an interesting opportunity for international investors. 3. The Swedish hotel sector offers a huge variety and there is an enormous amount of different accommodation styles which are unique in the world, and visitors are coming from all over to spend a night in one of these places. Its outstanding ideas of lodging like e.g. in an ice hotel can easily compete with the most interesting locations in the whole world.
Sahk, Kaarel, and Peeter Torop. "Traditional and Non-traditional Tools for the Description of Space and Place - The Contemporary Approach." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The purpose of this paper is to provide a classification of the insight into the new approach of the real estate analyze. This approach is based on the space based built up of the property and on the other hand on the workout of the time based analyze of it nature, firstly represented in the earlier works of Bakhtin, and changing the analytic analyze with the synthetic analyze throughout the workout scheme of the chronotope. Design/methodology/approach ñ The research in this paper is based on space and place founded literature introduction and on the adapting and further promotion of the Bakhtinís definitions and itís philosophically approach into the real estate nature. Findings ñ The findings in this paper confirmed that the term chronotope and its fundamental presentation will be arranged and used for the analyzing the real estate on the different levels of it acquisition; the three levels of the chronotope Research limitations/implications ñ The research in this paper is aimed specifically at broad nature of real estate professionals and should supply them with a contemporary and modern approach of the fundamentals analyzes. Practical implications ñ The paper shows that, if consideration is given to the characteristics that bring us from the use of the traditional tools of analyze to their contemporary and more sophisticated interpretation, then the psychologically aspects through the philosophy of identity, must be accounted. Originality/value ñ In the paper the emphasis was placed on identifying on the different theoretically fundamentals of the basic parameters of the space and place that are used for the workout of the real estate chronotope. The theory of chronotope allows summarizing the heterogenesis of space and place in the real estate researches. As a new and contemporary tool of the description of the real estate nature (space and place) and research, the paper is fundamental and moves the market participants to the more holistic approach treating the property, and also promoting them for the larger discussion.
Wyatt, Pete. "Transport CO2 and the Location of Offices." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. This paper investigates the extent to which office activity contributes to travel-related CO2 emission. Travel accounts for 32% of UK CO2 emission and commuting and business travel accounts for a fifth of transport-related CO2 emissions, equating to 6.4% of total UK emissions. Figures from the Department for Transport (2006) report that 70% of commuting trips were made by car, accounting for 73% of all commuting miles travelled. In assessing the environmental performance of an office building, the paper questions whether commuting and business travel-related CO2 emission is being properly assessed. For example, are office buildings in locations that are easily accessible by public transport being sufficiently rewarded? The de facto method for assessing the environmental performance of office buildings in the UK is the Building Research Establishmentís Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM). Using data for Bristol, this paper examines firstly whether BREEAM places sufficient weight on travel-related CO2 emission in comparison with building operation-related CO2 emission, and secondly whether the methodology for assigning credits for travel-related CO2 emission efficiency is capable of discerning intra-urban differences in location such as city centre and out-of-town. The results show that, despite CO2 emission per worker from building operation and travel being comparable, there is a substantial difference in the credit-weighting allocated to each. Under the current version of BREEAM for offices, only a maximum of 4% of the available credits can be awarded for ensuring the office location is environmentally sustainable. The results also show that all locations within the established city centre of Bristol will receive maximum BREEAM credits. Given the parameters of the test there is little to distinguish one city centre location from another and out of town only one office location receives any credits. It would appear from these results that the assessment method is not able to discern subtle differences in the sustainability of office locations.
Meulman, Mariette. "Trends in Investment Strategies for Non-Listed Real Estate of Nordic Countries in 2008." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Hunt, Malcom, Tony Key, and Stephen Lee. "UK Real Estate Fund Performance: An Overview." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The paper will assess the realised performance of UK real estate investment funds using the largest available set of data from IPDís records. The first objective is to document fund returns over periods of 10 and 20 years using all the standard indicators of return, risk and risk adjusted returns (Sharpe, Treynor, Jensenís alpha, information ratios, factor models etc). The analysis will explore the performance of fund managers on measures such as consistency, market timing, and momentum. The discussion will include the limitations of metrics drawn largely from the analysis of equity mutual funds for the analysis of real estate funds, and how the alternative performance measures impact upon the performance ranking of managers. The second part of the work will give an initial decomposition of ariance in fund performance and indicators of manager skill into underlying components, such as stock selection vs asset allocation. The paper is intended to open information on fund performance to a wider audience, and develop an agenda for further research.
Chang, Nell, and Tim Havard. "Understand How Developers Construct the Pricing of the Residential Property by Process Tracing Protocol." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The behavioural school of valuation thought believed that the practitioners and academics should reflect market behaviour in valuation. Previous research has identified various variables that affect/ determine property prices. However there is little research into how the major market players such as developer perceive those price determinants and how such perceptions affect the process of making real-life decisions. This research employs a practitioner experiment to investigate how developers make their pricing decision in a simulated situation. The process tracing protocol that tries to follow the human decision-making processes is widely employed in the behavioural research. The professionals, usually the appraisers, and the novices are requested to solve a problem that involves decision making, in which the researcher needs to observe the sequence of requested and utilized information; this traces the problem solving process. The findings come from 23 practitioner experiments of the Hong Kong and Beijing developers, who were requested to give opinion on the price ranges of four residential developments in an unfamiliar city. The research reveals that financial factors are considered at an earlier stage than other distance, environment and property factors. Hong Kong developers would consider affordability (average personal income), land and construction cost, number of apartments completed per annum and future market trends. Beijing developers would consider sale situation, rental rate and living standard. In terms of the first factor considered, there is a clear trend that developers from the two cities would first consider distance to transport, location, distance to central business district and environment. Generally the sequence of how developers consider the factors does reflect the importance of the factors in developersí perception; most of the first considered factors are major factors in the final pricing decisions but there are exceptions. This reflects the complexity of real-life decision when developers need to decide whether the desirable characteristics/features of individual apartments can compensate the undesirable ones. The final pricing result of all developers demonstrates certain level of consent to which development should be priced the highest and the 2nd highest etc. However Hong Kong developers show more deviation in their pricing opinion as compared to the Beijing developers. This implies even professional such as developers might not have an agreement on what factors are most significant in constituting the price.
Peiser, Richard. "Using Large-Scale Urban Models to Predict Neighborhood Scale Impacts: An Application of the Los Angeles-Shanghai Urban Modeling Project." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. A team of researchers led by Richard Arnott, Alex Anas, and Richard Peiser is building a next generation land use_transportation_ecology model for projecting urban growth in the Los Angeles and Shanghai regions. Other team members include Dan McMillen, Joan Walker, Sofia Dermisi, Siqi Zhang, Guoping Huang, and Haixiao Pan. With initial funding from the Real Estate Academic Initiative at Harvard University, the team is working closely with the two regional planning agencies ñ Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) in Southern California, and the Shanghai urban Planning and Design Research institute (SUPDRI) in Shanghai. The Los Angeles ñ Shanghai Urban modeling Project is creating a GISñbased data platform for investigating a series of questions about the impact of future urban growth and change in the two metropolitan regions. The primary objective is to develop better models for forecasting land use and density changes over time. These projections are fundamental for assessing a variety of impacts such as commuting time, economic output, environmental quality, and social indicators for quality_of_life. Our goals are threefold: 1) to develop models to understand urban growth and change _ to develop models to predict urban growth, densities, land use patterns, and who will live and work where; 2) to understand how the complex interactions of congestion, environmental quality, crime and other social indicators impact real estate values and in turn how real estate values impact housing affordability, residential location patterns, employment, and shopping patterns; 3) to compare the impacts of different policies affecting urban development in L.A. and Shanghai and to evaluate the impacts of future growth patterns from the perspective of transportation, urban infrastructure needs, environmental impact, crime, poverty, and education. The project is in its second year and the models are still being developed. In this paper, I will describe the theoretical approach to the model and discuss how the model will be used to project development at the urban design scale. This is new for large scale models, which typically treat land use, transportation, demographic, and other data at much larger zonal scales. Unlike other large_scale planning models such as those developed by Putnam, de la Barra, Waddell, and others, the LA_Shanghai model is based on micro economic foundations with households maximizing utility and firms maximizing profits. The model takes as given the growth process and the transport network, and forecasts wage, land rent, land value, floor space rent, and floor space value surfaces over time for the cities. In future phases of the model, some variables that are exogenous in the initial phase (e.g. population or utility, the severity of land use controls, crime levels) will be made endogenous, and the econometric estimation will be modified accordingly. The present paper focuses on developing a procedure for consistently disaggregating the real estate price and development predictions from the large_scale modelís zonal aggregation down to small neighborhoods and parcels. This will make the results compatible with the level of resolution at which real estate market data exists and is used. The paper explores a number of issues for integrating the large scale_model into small_area urban design_scale neighborhoods and parcels. These include determining where real estate values will rise and fall; how much local congestion and accessibility will change; where gentrification and redevelopment will happen; how this disaggregation will serve as a bridge between SCAG and SUPDRI, and the urban modeling team; and micro_level real estate analysis that real estate developers must do. The approach uses GIS parcel data (4 million parcels in Los Angeles County alone) to enable urban designers, local planners and developers to visualize land use change at the street level. The results are important because they help planners, developers, neighborhood groups, and other stakeholders envision the impacts of various public policies affecting the built environment in their municipality in a format that generates individual buildings and streetscapes. This tool will be valuable to the stakeholders in making more informed urban planning decisions.
Warren, Clive M. J., Sven Bienert, and Georgia Warren-Myers. "Valuation and Sustainability are Rating Tools Enough?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. The lack of financial drivers are preventing significant investment in sustainability because stakeholders have no ability to measure the sustainability of the building or understand the impact upon the value. Valuers are unable to indicate or clarify whether sustainability is affecting the market value as there is an absence of detailed market evidence, sales data and lease transactions of sustainable buildings. Leaving both Valuers and other stakeholders uncertain of the value implication as there is no reliable evidence as to whether sustainable buildings are feasible (Lutzkendorf and Lorenz 2005). One of the key barriers is the confusion evident in the industry particularly the measurement of sustainability in commercial property. Although a range of environmental rating tools exist for buildings globally in commercial property, the synergy between these tools and identification of the relationship between the measurement and market value is inherently blurred due to the unique nature of the compilation of points attributed in the rating tools for sustainability in commercial property. This paper examiners the challenges that face the Valuation profession in assessing the impact of sustainability on market value.
Fili, Andreas. "Valuation and the Concept of Future Market Value." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Trifonov, Nikolai. "Valuation in Modern Condition in Europe and in the World." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. ERES:conference
Hullgren, Maria. "What Are the Driving Forces Behind Swedish Housing Consumersí Interest Rate Decisions?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. "This paper discusses the birth and growth of mortgage industry in Turkey and evaluates the prevailing 10-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) contracts with embedded prepayment and default options. In September 2007, seven months after the passage of mortgage law, almost every bank in our sample offered mortgage coupon rates that are significantly below the computed equilibrium mortgage coupon rates, involving a clear arbitrage profit for the borrowers. While the currently observed FRM coupon rates in November 2008 are approximately equal to the computed equilibrium mortgage coupon rates, 20-25 per cent coupon rates per annum are extremely high for establishing a wellfunctioning primary mortgage market in any economy. As every sample bank has significantly increased its mortgage coupon rates, and most of the banks have drastically reduced their contract maturities over the past year, we argue that the global financial crisis has affected visibly mortgage lending in Turkey.""
Kok, Nils, Piet Eichholtz, and John M. Quigley. "Why Companies Rent Green: CSR and The Role of Real Estate." In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009. We conduct a quantitative study to explain why firms lease commercial office space in buildings with a green label ñ as this implies paying a rental premium. Based on a literature review, we construct a theoretical framework of drivers underlying corporate social responsibility. We formulate five propositions that explain why specific industries may be more willing to lease green. Then, we test these propositions using a sample of 11,000 unique tenants in approximately 5,000 office buildings, of which 1,100 buildings have a green label. We find that corporations in the oil and banking industry, as well as government-related organization, are among the most prominent green tenants. The empirical analysis shows that tenants in these industry groups are significantly more likely to rent green office space.
Brown, Louise, Stanley McGreal, and Alastair Adair. "Winning Bidders: Is There a Strategy?" In 16th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Stockholm, Sweden, 2009.

There is an extensive literature base on time on the market and the relationship to both asking price and agreed price but relatively little quantitative analysis has been conducted on the process that occurs between the time of listing and agreeing a residential property for sale. This paper concentrates on that period by analysing the bidding process that occurs between listing and agreement. This research focuses on one of the largest datasets of bidding histories for residential properties containing the individual transaction histories of 3000 residential properties in a UK city for the period 2002-2008. It is a period of dramatic change in the housing market combining unprecedented growth of house prices in 2005, 2006 and the early part of 2007 with the market turning in mid/late 2007 followed by a rapid decline in 2008. The paper explores whether there are statistically significant patterns emerging between the bidding behaviour displayed by a winning bidder in comparison to other bidders and how this changes over the cycle. The paper specifically focuses upon incremental time and incremental price differences between the winning bidder and other bidders.