Keywords Abstract
de Quinsonas, Beatrice, and Stéphanie Galiègue. "2006 PROPERTY INVESTMENT MARKET TRENDS. FOCUS ON PARIS REGION. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The topic is to present the property investment market trends for 2006 and why Paris Region seems to be so attractive. First of all, we would like to present the major key issues for 2006: initial yields, market rental values, capital values, construction, ... Then, we would like to focus on the historical Paris Region performance and what types of sectors have been very performant and / or the less risky: in 2005 and on a longer period. And in Europe ? What level of performance ? Which place for Paris Region in Europe ? In order to understand why Paris Region is so attractive, we have conducted a survey in january and february 2006, in order to determine the overall prospects for the real estate market for 2006 & 2007, and to permit a better appreciation of investors' plans to buy and to sell. Some 100 french and foreign investors, and their advisors, gave us their point of vue. They accepted to let us know how much they have planed to invest and to disinvest. We will also introduce some of those results. How much do those investors plan to invest ? Which type of products are they interested in ? But, the aim of this presentation is also to show that even if Paris is considered overpriced, more and more investors are trying to buy in Paris. Is it risky, and why ? To conclude, we would like to present the key factors of the Region, and what type of criterias could influence real estate investment decisions? Which criterias are considered by the investors as very important in investment decisions ? What are the advantages of Paris Region and its handicaps ?
Belniak, Stanislaw. "A PARTNERSHIP OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS AS A MODEL FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF URBAN REVITALIZATION PROJECTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Revitalization comprises activities aimed at solving the problems of degraded urban areas. Those activities are intended to improve the quality of life of urban residents, to stimulate the economy, and to restore spatial order. An efficient and competent restoration of urban material assets is a prerequisite to a successful revitalization, yet it does not suffice alone. This is because a city is not merely a product of town planners and architects; it is primarily a cultural area focusing various existential, emotional and symbolic values. A local community identifies with those values and it has the right to treat urban areas subjectively in the process of decision making aimed at introducing changes in their development. In other words, social partnership and social participation should be regarded as indispensable factors of urban revitalization. The paper shows the dimension of social participation, describing its partners and scope. The author discusses various forms of participation based on the EU guidelines, and puts forward various models of social participation in the process of urban revitalization.
Dorofeenko, Victor, Gabriel Lee, and Kevin D. Salyer. "A ROLE OF CREDIT CHANNEL AND UNCETAINTY ON HOUSING AND BUSINESS CYCLE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. We consider the role uncertainty in incomplete markets environment that includes housing sector. Frictions such as poorly functioning rental and mortgage markets are likely important in accounting for cross-sectional issues such as life-cycle consumption and savings patterns. To incorporate some of the aforementioned frictions, we extend the Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) agency cost model of business cycles by including time varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affect housing and home capital production (in the setting of Davis and Heathcote (2005)). We first demonstrate that standard linearization methods can be used to solve the model yet second moment effects still influence equilibrium characteristics. The effects of the persistence of uncertainty are then analyzed. Our primary findings fall into four categories. First, it is demonstrated that uncertainty affects the level of the steady-state of the economy so that welfare analyses of uncertainty that focus entirely on the variability of output (or consumption) will understate the true costs of uncertainty. A second key result is that time varying uncertainty results in countercyclical bankruptcy rates - a finding which is consistent with the data and opposite the result in Carlstrom and Fuerst. Third, we show that persistence of uncertainty affects both quantitatively and qualitatively the behavior of the U.S. housing stylized facts: In particular, we show that the percentage standard deviation of residential investment is more than twice that of non-residential investment. Our model can also account for important features of industry-level data. In particular, hours and output in all industries are positively correlated, and are most volatile in construction. Finally, we find evidence for time-varying uncertainty in industry level productivity growth; however, the shocks to uncertainty imply a quantitatively small role for uncertainty over the housing and business cycle.
Maury, Tristan, and Ingrid Nappi-Choulet. "A SPATIOTEMPORAL AUTOREGRESSIVE PRICE INDEX FOR THE PARIS OFFICE PROPERTY MARKET ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. "This original study examines the potential of a spatiotemporal autoregressive (STAR) approach both in modelling transaction prices on the Paris office property market and in building a transaction-based office price index. To our knowledge, this study is the first one to apply such a method on French or European office market. The first part deals with the presentation of our data set on the Parisian office property market. The data set is from the Paris Region notary office (ìChambre des Notaires díŒle-de-Franceî) and consists of 2,551 office transaction units between the first quarter of 1990 and the third quarter of 2005. We use the exact X -- Y coordinates to sort each transaction by geographical area. In particular, we focus on the spatial specifities of the Paris Region market, with two business districts: the Central Business District (including the famous ""Golden Triangle"" where a large number of the most expensive transactions are concentrated) and the La DÈfense Business District. In the second part, we begin by using a standard hedonic method to identify the main variables explaining the movement of transaction-based office prices. We take care of the above mentioned spatial specifities of the Paris Region market. Additionally, we take into account the potential selection bias that may occur when the sample of transaction properties used for the estimation does not accurately represent the population of properties. To deal with this problem, we use probability weights estimated by the Paris Region notary office in our estimation procedure (Weighted Least Squares) to correct for unequal probabilities of selection. We then use the spatiotemporal autoregressive (STAR) approach first employed by Pace, Barry, Clapp and Rodriguez (1998), that incorporates a spatiotemporal filtering process into the conventional hedonic function. When comparing the obtained estimates from the STAR method to those of the traditional hedonic price method, we find a strong evidence of the presence of spatial and temporal interdependences among office transaction prices. Hence, the use of STAR method leads to a significant improvement of the modelling of the Paris region office market. Our results also confirm that the main additional determinants of the log of transaction prices on the Paris Region office market seem to be: the period of construction and the nature of the transaction (entire vs part of building, new vs second hand). In the third part, we build the office transaction price indexes derived from the two estimation methods (standard hedonic and STAR). We find significant differences between the two price indexes. In particular, it appears that the spatiotemporal autocorrelations lead to a substantial reconsideration of the boom in transaction prices since 1997, that seems much more pronounced than in a standard hedonic estimation."
von Malottki, Christian, and Michael Nadler. "ADDED VALUES OF GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN THE REAL ESTATE LIFE CYCLE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. "In geographic information systems (GIS) the collection, combination, analysis and visualization of spatial data is carried out in digital maps. Due to the significance of the location for this spatial data basis a commercial use of GIS seems to be suitable for the real estate economy. In German practice however, this is only true for isolated, heterogeneous and little transparent individual applications. The practical problems today result less from technology, but rather arise from the data obtaining and availability. For this reason the possible use of GIS applications is evaluated on the basis of existing empirical analyses of the value relevance of spatial data parameters for real estate decisions. Applications, target groups and requirements of property-related GIS are developed thereupon systematically following the value-added chain in the life cycle of real estate. Decision makers only will use and pay for property-related GIS, if the specific application solutions generate an ""added value"" for them. Based on this central assumption, the range of application extends from value inquiries in the context of financing and portfolio decisions in the letting phases of real estate to the use in location and market analysis in the developmental stages of real estate. The latter is shown exemplarily with the modeling of an GIS to forecast the supply and demand of office property areas."
Han, Sun Sheng, and Wenpei You. "AFFORDABLE HOUSING POLICY AND THE CHANGING SOCIO-SPATIAL STRUCTURE IN TRANSITIONAL BEIJING ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Since the nationwide housing reform was initiated in 1988, Chinese cities have been transforming themselves from relatively homogeneous societies organized around work-unit compounds towards ones with significant stratification and segregation. Wealthy ìgated communitiesî and dilapidated ìmigrant enclavesî have emerged side by side in many Chinese cities. The provision of affordable housing has become an urgent priority for the central government to find shelters for the middle- and low-income urban households. This paper studies the community created by the affordable housing policy using Beijing as a case study. The primary research question is how has the affordable housing policy transformed the socio-spatial structure of Beijing and why. Data are collected from field surveys and interviews. Non-parametric statistics and GIS mapping are used in data analyses. The main finding is that this housing policy has changed the whole socio-spatial structure a lot. The overall socio-spatial pattern is different with the western cities. During the changing process, government organization and other work-units are still playing important roles in shaping the changing socio-spatial structure. This paper also finds that due to loose control in the supply and distribution of the affordable housing, majority of the households do not meet the qualifying criteria for consuming such a unit. This study adds to the existing literature by linking the affordable housing policy and the changing socio-spatial structure in Beijing; it also shows that the changing socio-spatial structure is a far more complex process in economic transition.
Mouzakis, Fotis, and Simon Stevenson. "AN ASSET PRICING MODEL OF THE LONDON RESIDENTIAL MARKET ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The housing market in the UK has seen a sustained increase in prices in recent years, in common with many international markets. The UK market has however witnessed distinct regional trends in price dynamics. This has been a common factor in the UK market as noted in the many papers that have examined the ripple effect and convergence across regional markets (e.g. Meen, 1999, 2005 and Cook, 2003). The differing dynamics of the London market has been a key element in many of these studies and it is this market that the current paper explicitly examines. In contrast to many international markets few studies have examined the rental market in the UK and its relationship to trends in residential prices. This paper builds upon the existing literature to have examined the residential market within an asset pricing framework (e.g. Ayuso, 2005, Carreras-i-Solanas et al., 2004, Chan et al., 2001, Clayton, 1996, Mankiw & Weil, 1989, Poterba, 1984, 1991, Topel & Rosen, 1988). The paper explicitly examines the London market for two reasons. Firstly, the market has quite distinct characteristics in comparison to the rest of the UK. Secondly, the capital has the largest rental market in a country with a relatively high level of owner occupation and is therefore best placed for an analysis of the price-rent relationship.
Keeris, Willem G., and Ralph van Polane Petel. "AN IMPULSE FOR A MORE ìMODERNî WAY OF PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS:BENCHMARKING REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS ON RETURN AND RISK ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Generally real estate is considered a long term investment, but performance monitoring is done on the short-term by comparing with a yearly benchmarking; the ROZ/IPD index in the case of the Dutch market. An essential deficiency in this approach is that the corresponding risk profile of the investment is not taken into consideration. Investment theory is based on the pairing of return to risk. This paper describes a new method for the performance analyses of a real estate investment portfolio with the scope on both components; risk and return. The downside deviation is used with the corresponding ratioís and MAR target return, which are considered important for the investor. Furthermore, a new ratio is introduced namely the Performance Potential ratio, which is important for the involved management.
Katyoka, Mutale, and Peter Wyatt. "AN INVESTIGATION OF THE NATURE OF VACANT COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Commercial and industrial floorspace statistics covering England at the local authority district level have been published for the past four years. These statistics provide annual snapshots of the quantity, location and type of non-domestic building stock across the country. Longitudinal analysis, although restricted to a short time-frame, can tell us about changes in land use activity and illustrate how, in general, the stock of commercial and industrial floorspace is slowly increasing. What these statistics do not reveal is whether the stock is in use or vacant. Growing interest in the redevelopment and re-use of ëbrownfieldí land (which, it is assumed, includes ëbrowní buildings), means that the ability to identify stock that is vacant, particularly for long periods of time, is of great importance to land use policy makers and developers. This paper reports the results of a pilot study to collect data on vacant commercial and industrial floorspace in Leeds over a four-year period. Using data collected and maintained by central and local government for property taxation purposes, sub-building information on vacancy was compiled and statistics produced that were designed to nest within the Commercial and Industrial Floorspace Statistics that are currently available. This paper reports the results of the pilot study, investigates the nature of the vacant stock in terms of building type, land use and age and reports significant differences in the periods for which premises were vacant when the stock is classified in these ways.
Kippes, Stephan. "ANALYSIS OF SPECIAL ASPECTS OF THE GERMAN MARKET OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES - AN EMPIRICAL PROJECT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the paper central elements of the German housing market are analyzed in an exemplary manner for the agglomeration of Munich, and other German state capitals. The idea is to extract data in some sort of data mining from two different sources. The paper e.g. focuses on the topics of housing prices, regional patterns, changing customer demands, demographic trends, net migration. This study analyzes residential property, because the IMV program only tracks houses, flats etc.; commercial properties arenít analyzed by this program. While IMMONET contains residential as well as commercial properties the system is more or less dominated by residential properties, and the data base to analyze offices or re-tail outlets would be quite thin.
Lutzkendorf, Thomas, and Oliver Urschel. "ANTICIPATORY MANAGEMENT OF STRATEGIC RISKS AS A PART OF SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF HOUSING COMPANIES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. A constantly rising importance of active risk management can be observed with regard to housing companies. Even small and medium-sized enterprises acting locally will not be able to withstand this trend. Due to the long life cycle of property assets it is particularly important that the risk management process is carried out in an anticipatory manner. A closer look on the process of risk management reveals that only the phase of risk control is open for input from entrepreneurial decisions. In this regard a strong interdependency exists between the applied corporate policy and the corporate risk management. Roughly spoken, there are two different ways to cope with an identified risk: the first one is to eliminate its cause, and the second one is to neutralise its effects. Preferably, measures eliminating the cause are taken into account first. Afterwards, for example, an insurance is procured or the risk is taken over by the company itself. The paper illustrates the interrelation between risk management on the one hand and the issues of sustainability in real estate on the other hand. The first part of the paper identifies and briefly discusses the risks associated with property assets during their entire life cycle. In the second part the energetic modernisation of the building stock and the customisation according to the special needs of several social groups are taken as examples to show that sustainable management ñ in terms of balancing economic, environmental and social issues - results in considerably lower overall risk for the operation of housing companies. This, in return, contributes to the long-term existence of the housing company; particularly within adverse market conditions. The target-oriented implementation of principles of sustainable management causes a demand for applicable tools and management methods. Therefore, the paper presents both possibilities that enable estimating and evaluating the future development of the building stock as well as a system to assess the matching between dwellingsí characteristics and attributes and the specific needs and requirements of different target groups.
Piazolo, Daniel. "ARE THE BENEFITS FROM GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION DECLINING WITHIN EUROPE? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The increase in cross border investments tends to synchronise the national markets. Based on the extensive database of DID and IPD it can be derived that the property markets within Europe reveal signs of convergence. This convergence is especially pronounced in the office market, where the rental growth cycles show significant correlations. Geographical diversification can only work if the property markets have not yet completely converged. Diversification allows a reduction in the variance of the total return without a reduction in the magnitude of the total return or, alternatively, an increase in the total return without an increase in the variance. The DID / IPD data suggest, that these benefits of geographical diversification are less likely with engagements in the office markets. However, these benefits are still offered through the retail and residential markets. There are some national exceptions to the overall convergence of the property markets within Europe, notably the one of Germany. The German property market has been characterized through low rental development for a decade. The other European property markets had significant rental increases for offices at the end of the 1990ís and a slow-down since then. The apparent consonance of the German and the other European office market at a low rental growth level in 2004 can not be taken as the beginning of a joint co-movement. Correlation is not static. After turning points in the market cycles, some markets pick up more quickly than others. Consequently, the observed convergence within Europe does not necessary exclude renewed divergence when the markets recover. Due to the extensive and unique database of DID Deutsche Immobilien Datenbank and IPD Investment Property Databank deep insights into the development of the European real estate markets are possible. The novel question of declining diversification benefits due to the increase in correlations offers a new focus for this research field. Analytical Methodology: To examine convergence / divergence extensive use is made of correlation analyses and other statistical tools. Proposed Application: The focus is the European real estate market.
Anderson, Nicholas, and Juhani Kiiras. "ARE THERE OPTIONS TO PPP OR PFI PROCUREMENT MODELS? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Life-Cycle Contracts (LCC) commonly called PPP or PFI are typically relied upon for the financing and the execution of large infrastructure or building investments. A scope of LCC includes financing, design and engineering, construction, and operations and maintenance over the extended contract period, i.e. 20 or 30 years. The income of a LCC consists of payments based on the use of the constructed object in question. Under a LCC, the preparation of the tender documents, the engineering and the estimating of the bids, and the final selection of the contractor take long time and the process involves several problems. An investor remains tied to the contract terms, i.e. there is little flexibility to respond changes in the use of object or technology during a long contract period. The financing in LCC models are expensive and the model is like hire purchase. Thus, investors should have a possibility to choose from among several alternative procurement strategies. In this paper, the Life-Cycle Management model (LCM) is introduced as an alternative for LC contracts. Via this LCM, a public owner (investor) will get long-term financing with lower interest rate and all the savings to be gained through the competitive subcontracting of all project service or work packages and maintenance task packages. All subcontracts are procured from competitive markets. In addition, an investment process can be started earlier than in the case of LCC. However, the downside of the LCMS model involves a fact that an owner will carry all the project risks over its life cycle. In this paper are presented net present value calculations about some case projects procured by LCC or LCM models.
Williams, Brendan. "AREA BASED URBAN REGENRATION AND ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING: THE ROLE OF TAX BASED INCENTIVES IN THE DEVELOPING THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CENTRE IN DUBLIN. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Interventions in urban land regeneration markets to stimulate economic development are a policy option in assisting economic restructuring. Such interventions can be solely based on stimulating property investment and development within areas designated as needing support. Alternatively such interventions can include the promotion of specific market or enterprise sectors as part of a wider development policy agenda. The urban regeneration project in central Dublin based upon the International Financial Services Centre represents an ambitious urban regeneration project with clustered specialisation as part of the regions economic restructuring on a formerly derelict docklands site. This paper explores the changing perspectives of developers occupiers and policy makers involved in the project and are based upon ongoing research on urban regeneration policy at UCD. In particular the paper examines the role and cost of incentives and supporting measures for the project and critical issues for the areas future development.
Dulguerov, Matthieu. "ASSESSING REAL ESTATE INFLUENCE ON PORTFOLIO RISK: A COPULA-BASED APPROACH ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This study investigates the effect of non-normality on the risk of a portfolio including real estate. It was shown that the real estate as well as the financial time series under study are not Gaussian. In this framework of heavy-tailed distributions, copula functions are more suitable for modelling tail dependence than correlation coefficients. In a first step, we focus on modelling the relationship between financial assets and real estate returns for the US and Swiss market using copula functions. We find that the dependence structure between a mixed-asset portfolio (bonds and equities) and securitized real estate index is modelled by the Gumbel copula for the Swiss case and by the Clayton for the US one. The inclusion of securitized real estate into a mixed-asset portfolio does not reduce the risk contrary to the direct real estate case. The Gaussian assumption made on the marginal distributions and on the dependence structures by most financial models leads to misleading inferences in terms of risk and biases the optimal level of diversification. In a second step we quantify the over- or underestimation of the risk calculated with copulas compared to a multivariate normal distribution separating the effects of the marginal distributions and of the dependence structure. These findings have important practical consequences for asset allocation decisions.
Pelzeter, Andrea. "ASSET MANAGEMENT WITH LIFE CYCLE COSTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The concept of Life Cycle Costs (LCC) is an instrument to detect a possible Trade-Off between costs for investment and costs for operation and maintenance. Even though the effectiveness of Life Cycle Costing is highest on the very beginning if the life cycle of real estate, it is also profitable to implement LCC in the phase of use. In that phase possible alternatives in the management of an asset have to be compared integrating all future costs caused by that alternative in relation to the status quo. This paper will show how LCC contribute to Asset Management. In Asset Management LCC can be used for strategic and operational decisions as well as for controlling. * strategic decisions: LCC are implemented for the selection of objects, where an investment in maintenance, modernisation or refurbishment will improve the long-term Cash-Flow. * operational decisions: The planning of these measurements may be optimised with the help of LCC. * controlling: LCC serve as a benchmark or as a limiting value. / Because the calculation of LCC is not (yet) regulated by a national or international norm different methods are in use. The influence of different calculation methods on LCC-supported decisions will be demonstrated by examples, calculated in a model developed by the author in her doctoral thesis. In conclusion a recommendation for the calculation of LCC is given - in accordance with the draft of GEFMA 220, a German guide on Life Cycle Costing in Facility Management, which was chaired by the auhor. The main objective of this paper is to point out which aspects have to be reflected before implementing LCC in asset management.
Maurer, Raimond, Marcel Marekwica, and Steffen Sebastian. "ASSET MELTDOWN - FACT OR FICTION? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper analyzes the relation between demographic structure and real asset returns on treasury bills, bonds, stocks and real estate for the G7-countries (United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, France, the United Kingdom and Germany). Based on a macroeconomic multifactor model, a variety of different demographic factors is examined in the time period 1951 to 2002. In these models, no robust relationship between shocks in demographic variables and asset returns can be found, which suggests, that Asset Meltdown is more fiction than fact. Full paper available at www.real-estate-finance.de.
Garcia, Laura Galguera, Christos I. Giannikos, Hany Guirguis, and Stephen Roulac. "ASSET PRICING AND THE SPANISH HOUSING MARKET ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The continuous growth of house prices in Spain in recent years has been an issue with economists and market participants. It is still an issue of debate whether the increases are based in fundamentals or whether they essentially constitute a bubble. In this work we study and document the price growth in housing of recent years and attempt to contribute to the above debate. Our work so far (within the framework of a specific asset pricing model described below) indicates that there are no obvious factors that can provide a strong explanation for the price hikes or the recent past. In this aspect our work can be seeing as supporting the bubble theory. But the later is something that also needs to be explored formally on the basis of existing work in the literature as well as in the direction of alternative pricing models.
Adair, Alastair, James Berry, Norman E. Hutchison, and Stanley McGreal. "ATTRACTING INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT INTO REGENERATION: NECESSARY CONDITIONS FOR EFFECTIVE FUNDING." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006.

At an international level governments are increasingly seeking to ensure greater involvement of the private sector in the financing and delivery of regeneration and sustainable communities. Regeneration is currently at the forefront of the UK Governmentís priorities (Urban White Paper, 2003: Miliband, 2005). In order to attract more private finance the public sector is being encouraged to take on a more strategic role, which creates confidence for the private sector to invest. However the success of such an approach will depend on meaningful engagement between the public and private sectors and in particular with the financial institutions. Currently there is a substantial weight of institutional money that could be attracted into regeneration. The financial institutions are major players in the UK capital markets, controlling assets in excess of £1,500 billion. Research into the size and the structure of the UK commercial property market has estimated that at the end of 2003 the value of commercial property was of the order of £254 billion (Key, 2005). Just over half of this stock is of investment grade, the majority of which is owned by institutional investors. The aim of the paper is to understand the needs of investing institutions and to identify the likely constituents of a working model suitable for encouraging institutional investment and bank finance into regeneration schemes. A cross-asset perspective (property, bonds/fixed income, equities, private equity, hedge funds and alternatives) is adopted, enabling an understanding of both the asset allocation decision-making process and the criteria used in the investment selection procedure of respective asset classes. A survey of investment fund managers across each of the principal asset classes was conducted, taking the form of structured discussions, the interviews considered the investment decision-making process, risk/return criteria and potential sources of regeneration funding. By considering the views of decision makers, a profile is constructed of the factors and inputs necessary in designing a regeneration investment vehicle that would prove attractive to the financial institutions.

Zillioux, Victoria Cassens. "AUTOMATED VALUATION MODELS: AUTOMATION VS. HYBRID BLENDING TECHNOLOGY AND HUMAN INTERVENTION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Automated valuation models (AVMs) are being used more frequently in all phases of lending in the United States. However, there is still a question of acceptance in the secondary market and with the GSEís. While all agree that these products can supply an accurate valuation of a residential property, there is not agreement as to what creates problems for this technology in the market. Rating agencies fear that a lack of current data causes the model to miss the market turns (either up or down). All agree that the lack of accurate or timely data will create problems with AVMís. If these problems are apparent in the US market where much of the information that feeds the models is readily available, how are these issues solved in countries where the data is less reliable or unavailable for model use? The appraiserís involvement in the automated process is seen by many to address these concerns and add the subjectivity that can not be recognized by todayís modeling technology. The appraiser has specific knowledge of the area and related issues that may not be readily apparent in even the most accurate data. The lending market in the US has for years been comfortable with the appraisal process and is reluctant to rely on AVM technology. This hybrid solution may work well not just in the US but also in places where the appraiser has learned to work with the data available and rely on his expertise. Each country has its own version of data that appraisers use for valuation purposes. Model builders have been very creative in some countries such as the UK and Ireland to work with the data they have available to come up with interesting and accurate model results. Many other countries are at the experimental stages of valuation modeling with what information they have available. Can the appraisers who are most familiar with the data help in the modeling process as well? Would this proactive stance create a new product that would be available to appraisers rather than the reverse that has happened in the US where most appraisers consider the AVM a threat to their business? This combined effort may allow lenders in many countries the opportunity to use 21st century technology in the best possible way. Quite possibly, despite the availability of data in the US, we havenít gone about this in the best way for all involved. This paper will explore the options of the combined advantages of technology and human talent and how it can best be designed and implemented in a variety of situations and used to the advantage of all involved.
Arens, Jenny, Nikolaus Jackob, and Thomas Zerback. "BENCHMARKING IN REAL ESTATE JOURNALISM - A MULTI-NATIONAL ONLINE SURVEY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the past, academic relationships in real estate were confined within national boundaries. However, the globalization of the real estate markets is increasingly apparent. The number of international real estate transactions is growing and international academic meetings have been established. This ìinternationalî trend didnít affect solely the real estate industry, it may have affected the journalists reporting on real estate subjects as well. Journalists are nowadays confronted with an increasing public demand for high quality real estate information ñ both about national and international issues. However, there is no research on real estate journalism until today: We know virtually nothing about the journalists working in this domain, about their demographic data, their employment situation, about their working principles or market interactions. There is no information about real estate coverage in newspapers, magazines and special interest literature. To close the gap in scientific knowledge about real estate journalism the Department of Real Estate at the European Business School in Oestrich-Winkel and the Department of Journalism and Mass Communication at the Johannes Gutenberg-University in Mainz ñ both in Germany ñ are currently conducting a multi-national online survey. The survey, directed by Prof. Dr. Karl-Werner Schulte (Oestrich-Winkel) and Prof. Dr. Hans Mathias Kepplinger (Mainz), started in September 2004 in Germany, Great Britain, France, Spain, Austria and Switzerland. The paper presented will deal with the following topics: (a) the sampling procedure and questionnaire design used in the study; (b) the survey implementation; (c) selected results of the study. // The results will give insight into the differences and similarities of working procedures and market interactions of real estate journalists in Europe. This knowledge helps both real estate markets players and real estate journalists to improve their daily working structures and communication procedures.
Rehberg, Siegfried, and Reinhard Zehl. "BENCHMARKING OF OPERATING COSTS - EXPERIENCES IN THE HOUSING SECTOR IN GERMANY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper will give the experiences of the major housing federations in Germany (GdW Bundesverband deutscher Wohnungs- und Immobilienunternehmen e.V. and Verband Berlin-Brandenburgischer Wohnungsunternehmen e.V.(BBU). The members in Germany ñ housing companies and cooperatives host more than 7.000.000 housing units. The paper is a follow up paper to Prof. Dr. Bach and demonstrates the results of Facility Management in the housing sector in Germany. It will also give a report of the success of working groups of specialists in education and research, experts in Facility Management and advisors in the major housing federations. In the housing stock in Berlin and Brandenburg (1,2 Million housing units; thatís 40% of all the housing stock in these states), which is hosted by the members of BBU, in the last 10 years Facility Management was very successful in lowering the operating costs. In the year 2004 tenants in Berlin in Brandenburg had to pay less operating costs than in the middle of the 90th; without changing the high standard in services. Benchmarking with the ìGeislinger Konventionî demonstrates, that in 2004/2005 the operating costs could be lowered, though the prices for energy and housing services increased in the same time. Such experiences exist also in some other regions of Germany and will be explained. The paper will show that the new tool of benchmarking systems is not only successful for describing the operating costs, their influences and measures of facility management because it can also be used for identification of energy efficiency and CO2-emissions of buildings. So it will be demonstrated how to use an electronic tool for facility management in the housing sector for new management challenges in climate protection and improving the energy efficiency in housing.
Toenges, Dirk. "BENCHMARKING OF SERVICE CHARGES - THE ANALYSIS TOOL IMMOBENCH.DE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper should present, how service charges for commercial and residential properties can be compared and analysed with aid of the online-database immobench.de. This paper follows the paper presented by Prof. Dr. Hansjˆrg Bach and Siegfried Rehberg contains the presentation of the database immobench.de on the basis of the Geislinger Convention. Taking the example of TREUREAL GmbH, a real estate service company whose activities range throughout Germany and have developed this platform, various examples will be presented on how service charges have been analysed and costs optimised for commercial properties. With the aid of the database immobench.de service charge costs can be compared on the basis of regional specifics, technical equipment and building type aspects. * Creation of rankings and quick-analysis to find distressed properties; * Variance of service costs from a freely defined comparative portfolio; * Representation of the bandwidth of service charge costs; * Representation of the development of service charge costs within a defined period
Baldry, David, Les Ruddock, and Noralfishah Sulaiman. "BEST PRACTICE TRANSFER IN CARE HOMES FOR THE ELDERLY: CASE STUDY METHODOLOGY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. A Case Study can be defined as empirical inquiry that investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its life context and copes with the technically distinctive situation in which there will be many more variables of interest than data points and relies on multiple sources of evidence. This paper presents a discussion on the philosophical stance of the case study as a methodology leading to the PhD research project which is titled Opportunities for the Transfer of United Kingdom (UK) Best Practices for the Provision of Care Homes for the Elderly in Malaysia. The case study technique consists of document analysis, observation and focus group interviews and their use will be justified
Chambers, Lisa, Jennifer Holm, and Elaine Worzala. "BRINGING THE OUTSIDE IN: THE COALESCENCE OF INDUSTRY AND ACADEMICS IN REAL ESTATE EDUCATION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In 2005, the researchers conducted a pilot study of graduate real estate programs that examined the coalescence of industry and the classroom in 14 well-recognized programs from around the world (Chambers and Worzala, 2005). This study will expand the survey pool of respondents to include graduate programs listed in the tenth edition of ULI's Directory of Real Estate Development and Related Education Programs (2005) as well as graduate real estate programs certified by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS). Like the original study, we will survey academics within the various programs to determine how the graduate programs are enhanced by directly incorporating real estate industry professionals into the curriculum as well as how the programs provide external opportunities for graduate students to interact with business professionals. The results of this study will confirm which strategies are the most common and establish a ìbest practicesî that are in other graduate real estate programs around the world. Strategies to be examined include the use of project-based courses, mentoring and shadowing programs, speaker series, internships, networking events, executive-in-residence programs, career fairs, guest lecturers, alumni associations and field trips. In addition, several questions will focus on the respondentsí perceptions as to the most effective strategies in accomplishing student/industry interaction. We will also query the academics about alternative performance measurements and assessment tools that could be used to rank real estate graduate educational programs. In summary, this study will compare and contrast the integration of the real estate industry into graduate academic programs around the world.
Hahr, Henric. "BUILDING ANALYSIS IN REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT - A MARKET-BASED ASSESSMENT TOOL ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. "In the context of profitability analyses of office real estate the income return and capital growth are taking the center stage. The provision of information concerning office buildings is often concentrated only on the respective market conditions, locations and the rent level resulting from this. Qualitative requirements of the office market in terms of occupants expectations on building attributes most play an underpart, although office buildings can absolutely be the cause of lower rates of return. For the assessment of the marketability of office buildings and their impact on the rent level, assessment tools are needed. The use of these tools may make the difference between success or failure in an ever-increasing competitive environment such as the actual German office market. With the present paper a multi-level analysis to evaluate portfolio properties is presented. This analysis is based on Quality Function Deployment (QFD), a strategic methodological approach for the preventive quality management of a systematic product and process planning. The root of the QFD approach is to transform ""the voice of the occupant"" into product attributes. To assess occupant satisfaction, the attributes are assigned with specific target values that are checked against the occupants needs. In addition the presented analysis includes an assessment of the adaptability of the identified weaknesses of portfolio properties to the occupants` requirements. The purpose of this paper is to present an adaptable, transparent technique that enables an assured assessment of the marketability and sustainability of portfolio properties. The result of the analysis is used to support decisions in the further handling of portfolio properties."
Fourt, Robert, Alan Gardner, and George A. Matysiak. "CAPTURING UK REAL ESTATE VOLATILITY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Volatility, or the variability of the underlying asset, is one of the fundamental key components of property derivative pricing and in the application of real option models in development analysis. There has been relatively little work on the application of volatility to real estate property derivatives and the real options literature, examples being Lee & Ward (1999) and Patel & Sing (2000). Most research on volatility stems from investment performance (Nathakumaran & Newell (1995), Brown & Matysiak 2000, Booth & Matysiak 2001). Historic standard deviation is often used as a proxy for volatility and there is often a reliance on indices, which are subject to valuation smoothing effects. Transaction prices are considered more volatile than the traditional standard deviations of appraisal based indices. This could lead, arguably, to inefficiencies and mis-pricing, particularly if it is also accepted that changes evolve randomly over time and where future volatility and not an ex-post measure is the key (Sing 1998). If history does not repeat, or provides an unreliable measure, then estimating model based (implied) volatility is an alternative approach (Patel & Sing 2000). This paper examines the different approaches to calculating and capturing volatility in UK real estate and considers the importance in applying the measure to derivative pricing and real option models. It draws on a uniquely constructed IPD/Gerald Eve transactions database, containing over 20,000 properties over the period 1983-2005. We look at the magnitude of historic amplification associated with asset price movements by sector and geographic spread.
Dierkes, Lars, and Christian Hantelmann. "CHANGES IN TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF GERMAN OFFICE LEASES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. So far only little is known of lease terms for commercial property in Germany. This paper aims to decrease this deficit and will provide detailed insights of the German office lettings market for the time period of 2001 to 2005. The focus will be on changes in terms and conditions of new office leases during the time period of 2001 to 2005 to see if the market downturn has resulted in any major changes. Due to the data sample which is based on real lease contracts, the analysis presented in this paper is far more detailed than common market reports on adjustments of top rental levels as incentives are taken account of. For the analysis the German office sector will be separated into the main office markets of Berlin, D¸sseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg and Munich, as well as an overview of Germany. For each of these cities the development of gross rents, rent free periods, ìeffective rentsî, terms to expiry, break clauses, indexation and re-letting of units will be analysed.
van der Post, Wim. "CLASSIFYING LAND MARKET SYSTEMS: LAND OF GLORY? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This research focuses on the land market. International land markets havenít been immune to the trend of creating more room for private initiatives. Land policy is moving; legislation has enabled more free market operations. In spite of strong political attention in the past, nowadays there seems to be an impasse in the land market policy. The first steps to a wider market influence seem to have various results. Future steps are dubious. For example, at this moment the Dutch government is searching for new instruments to intervene, while at the same time private actors are asking for more development options. Not all countries definitely choose for market mechanisms. Central issue is which international mechanisms are implemented. The research is based on a theoretical analysis of market mechanisms, which will lead to an international classification of social systems. Classifying policy lines is the basic assumption for an objective comparison. Anglo-Saxon and Nordic systems achieve better results of economic expanding than Continental systems. Those systems reveal a clear choice between market or governmental arrangement and ancillary responsibilities. In line with this framework the analysis of land markets pays special attention to the wider context of policy. Land policy is a result of these social choices and is so embedded in this context. This view arranges a new perspective. From this wider perspective the first international classification and assessment of land market policy has been designed. The international reference will introduce new opinions. From this perspective some specific instruments will shortly be analyzed. This study will function as input for later research to explore new modifications for land policy. Specific attention will be given to the question whether other mechanisms would result in a more efficient land market. The observations will be normative for further research of the land policy. It is evident that implementations and results are partially dependent on country specific institutional context. But the findings of the comparison can serve as a guide for new instruments. The ultimate objective is to create a new land market model.
Brounen, Dirk, and Maarten Jennen. "CLUSTERING EFFECTS ON OFFICE RENTS: HERDING IN THE AMSTERDAM MARKET? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In this paper we examine the influence of location and clustering on office rents. We test for this influence in a longitudinal study for the city of Amsterdam over a distinctive property market cycle by means of a unique dataset which comprises the substantial majority of actual transactions. We extend the existing literature in this field by examining different phases over the office market cycle and for the first time applying geographic information system methodology to the premier office markets of the Netherlands. In line with Archer and Smith (2003) we study agglomeration effects by controlling for basic building features and focussing on location features and the effect of clustering. Differences in agglomeration effects are caused by larger demand economies of scale, such as services and amenities, and more potential for vis-‡-vis contact for offices in clusters. Because of the proposed importance of clustering and an expectation that the effect of clustering is stronger in weak office markets we hypothesise that these benefits make clusters relatively more valuable during times when vacancy rates are high. After a description of the Amsterdam office market and the methodologies used, we apply basic hedonic regression analysis to control for structural building characteristics and focus on the influence of location attributes. In this part we determine the influence of location features such as the proximity of public transport opportunities or highway junctions. Besides these usual suspects we also calculate the impact of clustering over the office market cycle. The combination of established statistical models and geographic information systems (GIS) enables us to extract relevant pricing information from a unique database which comprises virtually all transactions over the research period. Location patterns have been studied before, but, to our knowledge, we are the first to study agglomeration effects at different points of a very distinctive office market cycle. The results give more insight into the influence of location and clustering for commercial real estate developers and investors in office space under different market circumstances.
Marshall, Stephen Paul, and Hasan H. Valiullin. "COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE RENTS AND VALUES IN MOSCOW VS. PHILADELPHIA - A TEN-YEAR PERSPECTIVE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. "This paper has two purposes. First to describe qualitatively and quantitatively the current state of residential real estate marketing in Moscow and Kiev and to compare that to current practices in Philadelphia. Second, to surveys comparative rents and values to compare current conditions in Moscow to Philadelphia and to further compare current conditions in those cities to similar data from each city ten years ago. This paper updates work originally published by the lead author in England in 1996 (see ""Factors Influencing Residential Real Estate Rents and Values in Kiev, Ukraine when Compared to Philadelphia,"" with L.S. Kyj, and M.J. Kyj, Journal of Property Finance, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 53-70, November 1996.); and also updates work published in Russia in 1999 (see Marshall, P., T. Belkina and M. Kyj (1999). ""Is It Profitable to Invest in Rentable Residential Real Estate in Moscow?"" Journal of Problems of Theory and Practice in Reforms of Regional Economies (a journal of the Institute of Real Estate Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences), (in Russian), pp. 178-186.) We are unaware of any comparable work and believe that a comparison of condition in 2005 versus those a decade earlier, and not long after the fall of the U.S.S.R., would be useful to document in the literature. Data collected for 2005 primarily results from sorting and summarizing real estate data available on the websites of important real estate companies in each city. Normal statistical analysis is performed on this data to reach meaningful conclusions about current market conditions in each city. Data quality is compared and contrasted to that available in the earlier referenced works. Some tentative key conclusions appear to be: * Philadelphia has seen dramatic increases in the prices of real estate, but that is not surprising considering how well documented the American (coastal) real estate boom has been; * Moscow real estate price have also exploded, but perhaps as much from the development of much grander properties as from pure price appreciation, particularly in suburban areas; * Central Moscow properties are and have continued to be substantially more expensive (as measured by both value and rent) than similar properties in Philadelphia. Undoubtedly this is related to the fact that Moscow is the national capital. As such it is a magnet unlike anything we have in America. Many Russian live very well in Moscow. Few live very elsewhere. Such demand pressure means higher real estate prices and rents; * Real estate marketing has dramatically improved in both Kiev and Moscow compared to both a decade ago and relatively versus U.S. real estate marketing. Other than the lack of an MLS, this process has probably reached its limit."
Kramer, Bert, D. Kronbichler, J. Putman, and T. van Welie. "COMPARING (SOCIAL) OBJECTIVES FOR DECISION-MAKING IN HOUSING CORPORATIONS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Housing corporations are not after a financial gain but allocate (consciously if not unconsciously) a part of their available capital in order to achieve a range of social objectives. The real problem is that it is often very difficult to compare these objectives. Do we choose for an extra affordable house or do we spend more on liveability? Answering these types of questions stays difficult as long as there is no objective way to compare the objectives. This article explains a method by which we can compare objectives using pairwise comparisons following Saatyís AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). With the help of the AHP objectives are ordered by importance and a weight-vector is determined. To use the AHP, we have to choose an interval per objective with the minimum prerequisite level and the desired level. By using these intervals, it becomes possible to compare objectives measured in different units. This method can be used to support the decision making process at a corporation level but also to work out the sub-objectives at a district or regional level. Hereby, an optimal balance of allocated capital and the score of the objectives can be achieved at every decision making level.
Dietel, Gerry F., Daniel Piazolo, and Matthias Thomas. "COMPARING THE DISCREET AFFLUENT ONES: A NEW DATABASE FOR REAL ESTATE FUNDS IN GERMANY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Special real estate funds in Germany represent more than EUR 16 billion assets in real estate. Investors, investment companies and the public domain did not yet have any access to performance data of the special real estate funds. The paper intends to close this gap and provides a thorough comparative analysis of all special real estate fund performance in Germany. Thereby the transparency of this important real estate segment is increased. All special real estate funds were included that existed for the 2001-2003 period analysed. The paper examines the typical construction of special real estate funds, sets out the relevant performance measures and reviews the special real estate funds industry. The core of the paper is the unique analysis of an extensive database. All the relevant information about the special real estate funds was collected from the Federal Bulletin (Bundesanzeiger) and transferred into a database. Based on standardized methods an adjusted performance measurement was carried out.
Fu, Yuming, and Maarten Jennen. "CONSTRUCTION CYCLES AND STOCK MARKETS: AN INTERNATIONAL EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In this paper we analyse the influence of expectations on the timing of office development in Amsterdam, Hong Kong and Singapore over a 25 year period. The forces that influence office development have been subject of a long history of empirical studies. Statistical work by Rosen (1984), Wheaton (1987), Kling and McCue (1987) and others identified factors such as gross national product, employment, vacancy rates and nominal interest rates to drive office development. These models are capable of explaining office development to a large extend, but despite the insights gained, overbuilding is still not a condition from the past. There are still undiscovered factors at work and as such overbuilding still remains somewhat of a mystery. The previously stated empirical work in the field of office construction to date has been confined to current or backward looking economic variables which influence the office development cycle. We test for the influence of forward looking expectations by decomposing stock returns by means of the Campbell-Shiller log-linear present value framework and hypothesise that expectations about future real demand (cash flow news) and future discount rates (financial news) influence the timing decision of developers. We use stock returns as a proxy for market expectations based on the theory that stock prices reflect the discounted value of all cash flows and the large number of investors and analysts congregating on the stock market making expectations expressed on stock markets a proxy for overall expectations. With the Campbell-Shiller vector autoregression (VAR) framework methodology we add forward looking variables to the existing models of office construction. The rationale for incorporating a forward looking variable into office construction models is formed by the fact that real estate is a long-lived asset and as such, expectations about the future should play a role in the construction decision. We propose that the rationale for constructing an asset, which lasts decades, is not solely based upon last yearís economic growth or this yearís demand and we use forward looking measures to test this hypothesis. After a discussion of existing office construction cycle models and the different office and stock markets incorporated in our international study we empirically test the link between cash flow and discount rate news on one hand and office construction timing on the other. Stock return and office market data over the period 1981-2004 allow us to incorporate several economic cycles and periods of vast stock market volatility in the analysis. With this analysis we introduce a new viewpoint to explain the flow of new office construction and as such expect to contribute to understanding office construction mechanics and add a piece to the overbuilding puzzle.
Jedelhauser, Julia, and Philipp Kaufmann. "CONTROLLING IN REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT: A NEW COMPREHENSIVE CONCEPT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Controlling is an upcoming idea in Real Estate Management. Up to now a comprehensive concept of Real Estate controlling is missing. This paper shows an revolutionary idea based on controlling determinants and the management ratio pyramid. (See power point presentation) Two aspects define the situation: On the one hand a lot of data is generated, especially via new technology (eg hi-tech house, fieldbus). All this information has to be analysed and worked with. On the other hand stakeholders (mainly owner, investor, occupant, facility services) need accurate data and management information for decision making as well as operating doing. On the ERES-conference in Weimar the authors want to present their concept and illustrate the idea. We are looking forward to an interesting discussion.
Qin, Bo, and Sun Sheng Han. "CORPORATE LOCATION AND OFFICE MARKET IN SHANGHAI ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper examines the location patterns of and the reciprocal relationships between corporate location and office market in Metropolitan Shanghai. Corporate location is viewed a reflection of the globalization process in which metropolitan economies are restructured and firms relocate. Office market is a product of municipal development planning and market interactions. By applying GIS mapping and statistical analysis tools on data about Shanghai Company Directory, census publications, and primary materials gathered from field reconnaissance surveys, it is found that multiple fragmented corporate clusters emerged in Shanghai. The office market was developed in close connection to the evolving corporate clusters. Further case studies of selected office clusters show that municipal development planning, domestic and global market influences interplayed in shaping the magnitude, function, and yield of office development.
Appel-Meulenbroek, Rianne. "CORPORATE REAL ESTATE KEEPFACTORS AND CUSTOMER INTIMACY STRATEGIES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the current demand-driven European office markets, attracting new tenants is difficult. To limit vacancy rates, real estate managers are shifting focus. Besides finding new tenants they also try to retain current tenants through relationship marketing and customer intimacy strategies. The service profit chain endorses this shift, pointing out that a satisfied tenant is a loyal tenant who is less inclined to move. So growing research attention is paid to factors that keep a tenant satisfied. Originating from the behavioural location decision theory from the 1960s, tenants have been proven to base location decisions (like moving) both on objective and subjective aspects; in later studies these aspects are called (objective and subjective) push- and pull factors. Recently also keep factors have been mentioned as a third category of factors, but little research has been devoted to them so far. This first exploratory research gives more insight in keep factors of office tenants and their relation to push and pull factors, satisfaction and loyalty. Data have been gathered by holding structured interviews with 38 companies in 2 multi tenant office buildings. Statistical analyses of these data showed that while more than half of the push and pull factors positively correlate (especially the ones mentioned often), keep factors are mostly a significantly different category. Both keep factors as push/pull factors correlate with satisfaction. A tenant can be pushed/pulled away foremost if a building is not up to date (maintenance, quality of fittings). Flexibility and being close to the (facilities of the) inner city are the main keep factors that bring about a satisfied tenant. Representativeness of both the building and its surroundings are mentioned fairly often as keep factor and as push/pull factor for both buildings, implying that for some factors satisfaction is based on subjective judgements of this factor and thus might be susceptible to customer intimacy management activities. The results imply that (facility) management activities keeping the building up to date are most important to make sure a tenant is not pushed/pulled away to another location. To actually stimulate him to stay is harder. Flexibility and the distance to the inner city are mainly fixed during the design of a building, and not easily changed after completion. These factors should thus receive ample attention when adding an office to ones real estate portfolio, because it will make vacancy management easier during the entire utilisation period.
Hollis, Malcolm. "DAMAGE LIMITATION - COULD JUDICIAL DECISIONS IN VALUATION METHODOLOGY HAVE A WIDER IMPACT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. There are occasions where the value of a property is required when the building is not in a state comparable with market expectation. The key indicators that may lead to that value are expected to be selected by a process of comparative analysis of recent transactions in property of a similar size in the same locality. But the influence of condition upon value has received little consideration in valuation theory. The assessment of damages in litigation within the United Kingdom or the resolution of liability for lease end liability in England and Wales seeks to rely upon a valuation of a property in its disrepaired state. There is no accepted methodology for achieving such a valuation. It is rare to have access to sufficient comparable evidence of transactions in property in a comparable condition that is also comparable in all other respects. As a result, and in part due to the poor quality of valuation evidence supplied in litigation to date (Crosby & Murdoch 2002; Hutchison, et.al.1996), the British Courts now lean toward accepting that the costs of the outstanding work (incorporated within a calculation) should be the preferred route of achieving the value in the diminished state. This paper reviews the rejection of valuation evidence as a trend by reference to the treatment of valuation evidence in Court decisions and summarises the acceptance of a cost methodology to calculate loss in decisions over the past five years. The paper questions whether the acceptance of this method of Valuation in the narrow field of litigation may have a wider implication upon for the valuation profession.
Han, Sun Sheng. "DANWEI AND THE CONSUMPTION OF HOUSING IN POST-REFORM CHINA ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Spatial polarization of population groups as reflected by the formation of affluent residences and immigrant villages is a new development in Chinese cities. In the existing literature, these new formations are attributable to market forces associated with the increasing income disparities between the elites and the poor. By using a county town in Shandong Province as a case study, this paper examines the role of danwei ñ a multifaceted institution which has itself been reformed drastically ñ in shaping the spatial organization of Chinaís urban settlements. Data were collected from field reconnaissance interviews and satellite images. Analyses reveal four distinctive housing forms/clusters in the study area, each of which offers very different quality of living. These housing clusters are integrated by a filtering process in the housing market; they also serve as seed-sites for developing certain neighbourhood characteristics (such as security concerns). In most cases, those tenants who are associated with good danwei are found in ìgoodî housing; those who are associated with bad danwei are found in ìbadî housing; and those who are not associated with any danwei are found in ìuglyî housing. The possession and capitalization of administrative power and financial resources by the various danwei institutions are critical factors in shaping the new urban space in post-reform China.
Mahler, Kilian, and Bob Thompson. "DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY IN THE EUROPEAN MARKET OVER THE NEXT DECADE - COMPARING THE UK and GERMANY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the early 1980s there was a sea change in the attitude of the UK government towards manufacturing industry. Subsidies were withdrawn, interest rates were allowed to rise to rates consistent with the inflationary environment and rigid labour laws were dismantled to allow greater flexibility in the hiring and firing of staff. From a property perspective the result was a rapid reduction in the volume of industrial floorspace in occupation and a substantial decline in real industrial returns. Traditional manufacturing regions were the worse hit and, in some cases, have yet to recover. This economic shock also accelerated some long-term changes: tenure of industrial property changed rapidly from predominantly owner-occupied to leasehold; specialist warehousing became the growth segment of the industrial property market and much functionally obsolete industrial property saw a change of use. In Germany, despite some reform, labour laws remain relatively inflexible, some manufacturing industry continues to attract subsidy and industry in Germany is becoming progressively less competitive. As far as industrial real estate in Germany is concerned, owner occupation remains the dominant form of occupation and logistics property provides the engine that drives the market. In the 1980ís it was competition from the ìtigerî economies of Korea and Taiwan that defined the industrial trading environment. This decade will see even more vigorous competition from China, India and, closer to home, the central European economies. This paper looks at the next decade comparing industrial property markets in the UK and Germany using different scenarios to assess the potential impact of these factors on future markets in these countries for occupiers and investors in industrial property.
Crosby, Neil, and Steven Devaney. "DEPRECIATION AND ITS IMPACT ON THE TOTAL RETURN OF UK COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE, 1994-2003. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Depreciation is a key element of understanding the returns from and price of commercial real estate. Understanding its impact is important for asset allocation models and asset management decisions. It is a key input into well-constructed pricing models and its impact on indices of commercial real estate prices needs to be recognised. There have been a number of previous studies of the impact of depreciation on real estate, particularly in the UK. Law (2004) analysed all of these studies and found that the seemingly consistent results were an illusion as they all used a variety of measurement methods and data. In addition, none of these studies examined impact on total returns; they examined either rental value depreciation alone or rental and capital value depreciation. This study seeks to rectify this omission, adopting the best practice measurement framework set out by Law (2004). Using individual property data from the UK Investment Property Databank for the 10-year period between 1994 and 2003, rental and capital depreciation, capital expenditure rates, and total return series for the data sample and for a benchmark are calculated for 10 market segments. The results are complicated by the period of analysis which started in the aftermath of the major UK real estate recession of the early 1990s, but they give important insights into the impact of depreciation in different segments of the UK real estate investment market.
Royo, Roberto Cervelló, Baldomero Segura Gar del Rio, F.J. Ribal Sanchis, and Blasco A. Riuz. "DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN RENOVATION AND REHABILITATION PROGRAMMES IN THE HISTORIC CENTERS. EFFECTS ON THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE MARKET ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. We analyze what effect the development of an urban rehabilitation program, mainly financed with public funds, has on the evolution of Real Estate values in the rehabilitated area and vicinity. We isolate the impact of the interventions over the value increase as a measure of the efficiency of the public rehabilitation performed in historical centers; the hedonic price function is seen as the most suitable methodology. For this, we study the average sale prices and the space-wise distribution, checking the evolution over the state intervention period. Moreover, we create a calculation index that allows us to measure any existing relation between the economical level of the intervention that has taken place by the public administration and the market values that have been observed.
Des Rosiers, Francois, Jean Dubé, Marius Thériault, and Marion Voisin. "DOES THE OVERALL QUALITY IN THE SUPPLY OF AN URBAN BUS SERVICE AFFECT HOUSE PRICES? - A NORTH-AMERICAN CASE STUDY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This study aims at testing whether, and to what extent, the overall quality in the supply of an urban bus service translates into higher house values for properties located along the lines. Located 150 miles east of Montreal, Quebec City, with a population of roughly 560 000 (750 000 for the Quebec Metropolitan Area - QMA), is used as a case study. Operated under the RÈseau de Transport de la Capitale (RTC)1, Quebec Cityís bus network is composed of three types of routes:* In operation eighteen hours a day, seven days a week, the regular service offers 54 routes with frequent stops serving the whole territory; * Introduced in 1992, the MÈtrobus system was designed at improving the supply of public transport where most needed and operates on two additional routes. Essentially, this improvement consisted in an increased vehicle frequency coupled with fewer bus stops along main street and road sections of the agglomeration already served by a regular service, thereby linking more efficiently downtown areas with eastern (Beauport), northern (Charlesbourg) and western (Ste-Foy) suburbs during rush hours. In 1993, the public transit improvement program was further strengthened by the introduction of the MÈtrobus Plus, which provides an even more intensive service level between suburban locations and Laval University, located in Ste-Foy; * Finally, the Express service insures a direct link, with few stops, between residential areas and major employment and activity centers in the city. In operation on weekdays only and during rush hours, the Express serves Laval University and Ste-Foy shopping centres (17 routes) as well as downtown areas (21 routes). // While roughly 87% of all motorized trips in the QMA are car-based, supporting a high quality public transit service depends on how it improves accessibility to jobs and urban services, which, in turn, should be capitalized into higher property values. Hence the relevance of the issue addressed by this paper, particularly for planning authorities and local decision makers in search of sound financing devices for public transport infrastructures. From an analytic point of view, land and property prices are a combination of externality effects and location rents (Krantz et al. 1982, Hickman et al. 1984, Shefer 1986, Yinger et al. 1987,Strange 1992, Can 1993, Dubin 1998). Hoch and Waddell (1993) point out that the overlapping of access and neighbourhood characteristics leads to highly complex influences on rent levels and values. As shown by Des Rosiers et al. (2000), accessibility factors impact differently on locationrents depending on whether they operate at a regional or local level; moreover, measuringaccessibility to urban services is no simple task, since it involves both objective and subjective dimensions linked to household structure and individual mobility behaviour (ThÈriault et al. 2005a). Finally, the combination of access and proximity influences is mirrored in the nonmonotonicity of some of the distance functions which requires that specific transformations be applied before they can be adequately captured (Des Rosiers et al. 1996 & 2001). Most of the academic research reporting on the effect of mass transportation on property values or rents deals with either heavy or light rail systems. Such research includes Dewees (1976), Bajic (1983), Voith (1993), Gatzlaff and Smith (1993), Benjamin and Sirmans (1996), McDonald and Osuji (1995), Baum-Snow and Kahn (2000), Pagliaro and Preston (2003) and, more recently, McMillen and McDonald (2004). The literature review by Smith and Gihring (2004) on value capture financing provides a quite extensive picture of international related experiences: although the extent of the impacts varies from place to place, the implementation of a new rail transit system generally results in significant rises in both residential and commercial property values, mainly around railway or metro stations. There are reports, though, of price drops for dwellings adjacent to such stations. Very few studies have been found that address the impact issue in relation to the implementation or improvement of a bus service. So et al. (1997) examined the importance of transport on house prices in Hong Kong. As do the vast majority of authors, they use hedonic modelling to control for various internal attributes and environmental characteristics, measuring transport accessibility as the distance to nearest stop on the mass transit railway (MTR), bus or minibus route. Dummy variables are also used to account for dwellings located within a 10 minutes walk from a transport node. While results reveal an insignificant explanatory power for bus routes, accessibility to minibuses emerges as the most influential effect on house prices. In Brisbane, Australia, a study by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (2001) shows that the median house price of properties located in suburbs both directly alongside and near the South East Busway rose, on average, by a percentage of 10.1% between June and September Quarters 2000, as opposed to 3.0% elsewhere, thereby suggesting that commuters tend to place more emphasis of an easy access to the CBD. Finally, preliminary findings from a recent research by Des Rosiers et al. (2005) on Quebec Cityís MÈtrobus service suggests that improving mass transit in central, high-density corridors may raise house prices by as much as 7,4% above and over average value appreciation while properties in more remote locations may suffer a 1,9% price drop due to nuisance effects. This study first relies on a data base of some 12 000 house sales that took place in Quebec City over the 1993-1997 period and which provides reliable information on sale prices and conditions, unit location and property characteristics. It also benefits from a regional GIS which includes detailed information on the local bus network, with buffers along the routes and near stops being used in order to isolate accessibility from proximity effects. Using the hedonic approach, it is possible to isolate and measure the externalities, either positive or negative, deriving from various quality levels in the supply of mass transit facilities, depending on the type of route (regular, MÈtrobus and Express), the service frequency (number of vehicles and hours of operations) and the period considered (weekdays, Saturday and Sunday). As shown by Des Rosiers et al. (2005), the higher the mass transit modal share in a given neighbourhood, the higher the progression of property values. As the bus service modal share is the combined result of supply of, and demand for, public transit facilities, it can be assumed that house prices will be affected differently depending on the intensity and regularity of the local bus service. Also, the changes in the professional status of women over the past decades and the ensuing growth in female car ownership result in long distance mass transit services having less influence on the house location choice process (ThÈriault et al. 2005b). Finally, the evolving competition among shopping and leisure alternatives in urban areas also acts upon modal choices by individual and households (Biba et al. 2004; ThÈriault et al. 2005c). On such grounds, it could be expected that the strongest and lowest impacts on prices will be obtained for the MÈtrobus and Express services, respectively, with regular routes exerting an intermediate effect. This research will allow for further investigating the role of public transit accessibility in the shaping of property values in a mid-size, North American city. More specifically, it will provide more insight into how the supply quality of an urban bus service may affect residential values.
D'Arcy, Éamonn, and Uberto Visconti di Massino. "ëCOMPANY CITYí TO ëSPORTS CITYí : TORINO 2006 AS A CATALYST OF URBAN RESTRUCTURING AND PROPERTY MARKET CHANGE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Many cities have viewed the hosting of international sporting events as a unique panacea for leveraging funding from a variety of sources both public and private to tackle long-standing problems of adjustment in the urban economy, in particular, deficits in physical infrastructure. The significant commitment of public resource to such events, clearly reflects this belief. Their hosting necessitates a significant transformation of the urban built environment with new requirements made on urban land and property markets. However, it is far from clear how a time limited exposure on the global media stage can act as a long-term trigger for sustainable urban transformation and property market change. This paper attempts to provide new evidence on these issues through a systematic examination of the recent experience of the Italian city of Turin in hosting the 2006 Winter Olympic Games. Turin provides a particularly interesting example as the bid to host the Winter Olympics was a key component of a process of plan-led urban transformation designed to reposition the city in response to very acute problems of economic restructuring associated with the cities previous status as the ëcompany cityí of FIAT. The paper examines the Torino 2006 projects within the context of the wider recent and current strategic policy actions to reposition the city and in particular, attempts to assess their property market and urban structure impacts. The analysis will also focus on how the ëimplementation structureí - the network of organisations and resources associated with the Torino 2006 projects - and the cities property market fundamentals, play important roles in shaping the magnitude and timing of impacts. The paper concludes with an assessment of the implications of the results obtained for cities contemplating a similar path to urban restructuring.
Geurts, Tom G., and Guido Spars. "ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF RESIDENTIAL RENTAL REAL ESTATE: A COMPARISON OF GERMANY, THE NETHERLANDS, AND THE USA ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The residential rental real estate market is subject to several types of regulation. Their economic impact is generally thought to be substantial; however their perceived benefits are controversial. This study tries to shed new light on the perceived impact by comparing the regulation of the residential real estate market in Germany, the Netherlands, and the United States, something that has not been done before in the literature. Employing a neo-classical analysis the authors evaluate the experience and outcomes of two particular types of regulation, namely Rent Control and Housing Quality Standards, in these three countries. Based on this analysis, it becomes possible to make recommendations with regards to the usefulness of these types of regulation, given the differences in each country.
Pfeffer, Tobias. "EFFICIENT REAL ESTATE ASSET ALLOCATION - DO SECTOR-SPECIFC REITS OUTPERFORM DIVERSIFIED REITS? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Corporate focus, variously described as specialization, diversification or core competency ñ and the associated costs and benefits ñ is one of the fundamental and most discussed issues in business administration. Although the subject has been investigated by various researchers for real estate investment trusts (REITs) on an aggregate level, the findings regarding specialization or diversification strategies and performance within the REIT arena as well as the role of REIT sectors in single- and mixed-asset portfolios remains inconclusive. Therefore, the study investigates theoretically and empirically the performance and strategic relevance of specialized and diversified vehicles in the asset allocation framework for the case of listed U.S. REITs. In this way, the paper analyzes the (out)performance of REIT sectors, their role in single- and mixed asset portfolios, and the link between the degree of sectoral focus and outperformance. The findings provide evidence for a trend toward property sector specialization that started in the early nineties and appears to continue today. Moreover, the performance analysis illustrates that REIT sectors have diverse risk-return profiles and that specialized REITs significantly outperformed diversified REITs on a risk-adjusted basis in most cases. Furthermore, the optimization of single- and mixed-asset portfolios with REITs brings several insights: Firstly, REIT sectors play dissimilar roles in the asset allocation framework. Secondly, the higher the desired return, the higher the portfolios must weight specialized REITs. Thirdly, the respective REIT sectors differ in their importance for investors. Fourthly, the application of Modern Portfolio Theory requires a constant rebalancing of the portfolio. Finally, the regression analysis proves that there is a positive link between specialization and outperformance. The theoretical examination provides evidence that specialization leads to superior information and market insight and lower administrative and coordination expenses which creates value for investors. Moreover, it is shown that the management of specialized REITs outmatches diversified REITs, for example through enhanced selection and timing abilities. The possibility of buying specialized REITs implies that investors can easily change and choose ìindustry championsî or (sub-)sectors in line with their particular portfolio strategy. Consequently, they can diversify on the investorsí level. Contrarily, diversification strategies on the REIT level across sectors put the value at risk and increase informational asymmetries and agency costs. In conclusion, investors seeking diversified exposure to U.S. real estate should certainly consider REITs, but they should apply a differentiated sector- and manager-specific approach.
Murphy, Lawrence. "EMERGING RISKS: THE DYNAMICS OF THE HOME OWNERSHIP MARKET IN NEW ZEALAND, 1990-2004. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The New Zealand housing system has experienced significant structural changes since 1990. The state's role in financing marginal home ownership declined dramatically and the liberalisation of the financial system has had profound impacts on the operation of the mortgage market. Significantly, while house prices have increased substantially and housing assets have assumed a greater significance in household wealth, home ownership has declined and there is increasing debate concerning the problem of housing affordability. This paper examines the nature of change in the housing market and provides a detailed analysis of house prices for four major metropolitan regions (Nominal and real year-on-year growth and rates of return). Notwithstanding the continued popular belief that home ownership constitutes a safe investment, it is argued that home ownership in New Zealand has entered a hitherto uncharted phase of development characterised by a new regime of risks.
Stoy, Christian. "ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF SWISS OFFICE BUILDINGS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Buildings are among the largest energy consumers of our environment. For this reason, they must be designed and used in an energy-optimised manner, from both an ecological and economic point of view. The understanding of benchmarks and their drivers is an indispensable tool for any such optimisation and a prerequisite for ìpower benchmarkingî and thus the energy optimisation of buildings. A study of the specialist literature revealed, from a theoretical perspective, the relevant drivers of electricity consumption. Using regression analyses, these factors are examined on the basis of a set of primary data collected within Switzerland (109 owner-operated office buildings). In addition, this data set also provided indicators for electricity consumption. For the properties surveyed, an electricity consumption median of 125 kWh/m≤ usable floor area and year was ascertained (with a lower and upper quartile of 94 and 171 kWh/m≤ usable floor area and year, respectively). Furthermore, it should be noted that in principle it is the building characteristics (extent and standard of technical installations) that determine the electricity consumption, while aspects of usage (e.g. share of special uses) are of secondary importance. The author considers energy contracting and technical power consumption controlling (e.g. short-term energy monitoring) to be interesting aspects which should be included in future research regarding the drivers of electricity consumption.
Reed, Richard G., and Sara J. Wilkinson. "ENERGY EFFICIENT REFURBISHMENT IN AUSTRALIAN SHOPPING CENTRES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Retail shopping centres are a dynamic business in Australia, annually generating $51 billion in sales, employing nearly half a million employees and having an asset value of AUD$69 billion. There are 1,338 retail shopping centres in Australia ranging from large regional centres of more than 100,000 square metres of retail space down to smaller, supermarket based centres of around 5,000 square metres. Importantly they account for 28% of the retail space and generate 41% of retail sales (PCA, 2005). Retailing is an extremely competitive environment where consumers have a wide range of options with regards to purchasing goods. They can shop locally at outlets or the strip mall, in bulky goods warehouses, on-line, via the television, via catalogues or home shopping, and notably all compete directly with retail shopping centres. In effect, if shopping centres are not attractive to consumers, they will not be attractive to retailers. The 1990s saw the first major wave of renovations, extensions and redevelopments of shopping centres following the initial construction phases of the 1960, 70s and 80s (Schwanke, 1994) and the majority of development is the redevelopment of existing centres. Refurbishment can occur when there are changes in the tenancy patterns or anchor tenants or when the existing buildings need repair through wear and tear (Morgan & Walker 1988). In addition refurbishment provides owners with an opportunity to expand, improve the investment and link up with adjoining properties. Most shopping centres are potential candidates for refurbishment in some form around seven years after completion (Schwanke, 1994). Relatively little research has been undertaken on the subject of energy efficient refurbishment of retail property, despite the constant requirement to refurbish existing stock and the link between buildings and greenhouse gas emissions. The trend is Australia is that CO2 emissions are increasing and the sector offers the potential to make significant reductions and contribute to climate change. This paper examines the profile of the retail shopping centre sector and argues the case for and against energy efficient refurbishment. It investigates the increasing importance of climate change and sustainability, as well as how this relates to the construction, operation and refurbishment of retail shopping centres. Whilst the focus is placed on Australian shopping centers there is relevance for the global scenario.
Thalmann, Phillipe. "EQUILIBRIUM HOUSING VACANCY RATE FROM PERCEIVED SHORTAGE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Housing markets need vacant dwellings at any time for proper functioning, but how many? At what low vacancy rate do households feel they have too little choice of residence? With rent regulation, movements in rents are poor indicators of market tensions. This paper infers market tensions from a household survey. It is tricky to simply ask households how tight they perceive the market to be because their answers might be tainted by their personal housing condition. This paper tests whether indicators of personal housing situation such as size of dwelling and rental burden contribute to explain perceived housing shortage. A multinomial logistic model allows identifying the determinants of perceived housing shortage. It also allows computing the vacancy rates at which a certain proportion of respondents would see just moderate housing shortage or no shortage at all. To our knowledge this is the first time equilibrium vacancy rates have been derived so carefully from household survey. The results are compared to those of the standard approach. The paper adds texture to the concept of equilibrium vacancy rate, which is generally seen quite eronously as a cut-off point: below that level there is housing shortage, above that level everything is OK. The paper examines the Swiss housing data, which is interesting with its record high proportion of rental housing, its second generation rent control and its long-time low vacancy rates. It first compares those vacancy rates over time with the rate of change in rents of dwellings put on the market. This suggests an equilibrium vacancy rate between 0.8 and 1.4%. Next it analyses the responses obtained in a household survey held in 2005. Respondents were asked to report their perception of housing shortage in their area. A multinomial logistic model is used to related those discrete responses to the local vacancy rate but also to a variety of descriptors personal housing conditions. This allows to test to what extent perceived housing shortage is tainted by personal housing conditions. The results show that only one indicator of personal housing condition affects perceived housing shortage - the difference between needed and actual dwelling size. They also show that for a vacancy rate of 1.45% 25% of Swiss residents would perceive severe housing shortage. The methods developed in this papers allows defining vacancy rates for which different proportions of households perceive severe housing shortage.
Boll, Philip. "EQUITY INVESTMENTS IN GERMAN PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In Germany, public spending for buildings has decreased dramatically over more than a decade and has resulted in an enormous backlog of investments in public buildings, such as schools, prisons and hospitals. Due to a tight budget, the investment opportunities of public authorities are strictly limited and an improvement of this situation can not be expected in the near future. In order to be able to satisfy the needs for essential investments in public buildings, Public Private Partnerships (PPP) are becoming more and more popular in Germany. PPP aims to involve private sector parties in the provision of public services, which allows for comprising private knowledge and capital. It is expected that the amount of PPP projects will increase significantly over the next years, which consequently requires a large amount of capital from the private sector. For this reason, sponsors as well as institutional investors will play an important role in providing equity to the projects. However, both the public and the private sector lack experience in embedding investors into PPP projects. While substantial experience and research has led to standardisation on other PPP markets (e.g. United Kingdom), proficiency in Germany is still missing and makes further investigation in this field indispensable. After a short introduction to the development of public investments in Germany, the paper will outline the potential for PPP in the building sector and it will be derived, why the involvement of private investors is crucial for the future of PPP in Germany. From literature research and face-to-face interviews carried out with various participants in the PPP market, different kinds of investors on the German market will be identified and categorised. Interviews with PPP investors will give an insight into their evaluation of the German PPP market and illustrate their objectives and decision criteria. This will lead to conclusions on how the financial structure of PPPs can be improved and how different kinds of investors can best participate in German PPP projects.
Wyatt, Peter. "ESTIMATING A HOUSING STOCK VACANCY RATE." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006.

Vacant dwellings are perceived to be a waste of valuable housing resources, a magnet for crime and antisocial behaviour and a visual blight in a neighbourhood. Financially, they represent a loss of council tax revenue and can depress the general level of property values in a locality. A slow rate of house construction over the past two decades, rising disposable incomes and a shift in the demographic profile of home-owners in England has led to a very high rate of house price inflation over the past ten years and this has caused vacant dwellings to become a focus of political attention. This attention has culminated in provisions enacted in the Housing Act, 2004 which allows local authorities to force vacant dwellings into use as a way of addressing housing need. But how many vacant dwellings are there, where are they and how long have they been empty for? There is a lack of property-specific information about the vacant housing stock in England and this makes it difficult to make policy decisions and use legislative powers in relation to specific dwellings or neighbourhoods. This paper contends that the published estimate of the number of vacant dwellings in England is inadequately defined. A method of obtaining detailed information about vacant dwellings that makes use of existing data is presented, vacancy statistics for Leeds are calculated and it is demonstrated that these statistics are capable of being aggregated and mapped at postcode, ward and local authority levels.

Gebert, Ilga. "EUROPEAN OFFICE MARKET CYCLES: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF LEAD-LAG RELATIONSHIPS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The trend toward the implementation of international portfolio strategies, which is already standard practice for capital market investments, has also become increasingly common for property investments over the last years. Due to the cyclical nature of real estate markets, the success of property investments depends highly on the investorsí ability to get the timing of investment and disinvestment in the individual property markets right. Therefore it is of vital importance for the investors to know about the correlation of cyclical movements of the individual real estate markets. As the cycles do not necessarily have to occur simultaneously in all markets, it is essential to account for lead-lag relationships between the markets. Due to the importance of the issues mentioned above for the development of a successful international real estate portfolio strategy, there seems to be the need for a comparative study that provides a better understanding of the interdependencies between the cycles of the different European office markets. The aim of this empirical study is not only to analyse the strength and direction of the relationships between the individual European property markets, but also to check for lags or leads in their cycles. The analysis is based on annual prime rental data (PMA) for the major European office markets for the years 1980 to 2005. At first, the prime rental series have to be decomposed into their trend and cyclical components. The decomposition is based on the time series models that NELSON AND PLOSSER (1982) developed originally for macroeconomic time series and that WANG (2001) adapted for the analysis of real estate market variables. Given the length of the time series, the Hodrick Prescott filter (HP-filter) that was developed by HODRICK AND PRESCOTT (1997) provides an appropriate technique to calculate the trend components of the logarithmized prime rental series. Afterwards the cyclical components can be derived as a residual. The cyclical components are analyzed for two overlapping periods from 1980 to 1995 and from 1990 to 2005 in order to answer the question whether the interdependence between the cyclical components of the individual markets has strengthened or weakened over time. The relationship between the different cyclical components is measured with the help of cross correlation analysis. As one major aim of the study is to detect lead-lag relationships between the European markets, the cross correlations are also calculated for lags and leads. The empirical study allows to answer a broad range of questions for the theoretical as well as for the applied analysis of European office market cycles: * As the analysis is undertaken for two periods of time, conclusions can be drawn concerning the question whether the cyclical movements of European office markets have converged over time, i. e. whether the integration of European real estate markets has grown stronger or not; * The consideration of lags and leads in calculating the correlations allows to identify markets which lead or lag the cycle or other markets which undergo the cyclical movements simultaneously. Again, the analysis for the two different periods shows whether the lead-lag structures are stable over time; * Furthermore, the correlation coefficients inform about the strength and direction of the relationship between the cyclical movements of the different markets. This is of interest with regard to risk diversification in the context of international portfolio investment. // As six German markets are part of the study, cross country and within country correlation results can be compared.
Eichholtz, Piet, and Harm Meijer. "EUROPEAN PROPERTY STOCKS TRADE IN REVERSAL PATTERNS; COUNTRY INDICES FOLLOW MOMENTUM. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Often investors try to increase their portfolio performance by playing specific stock patterns, which has triggered us to do some in depth research in this area. We have constructed a (short-term) trading model that explores trading patterns in European property stocks and real estate country benchmarks. We find that, historically, the worst performing companies of the last month tend to be the best performing companies of the coming months. And indeed, the opposite is also often true: the best performers of the last month are often the worst performers of the coming months. We believe the results shown by our model are highly significant, as they strongly pass the z-test (for outperformance) and t-test (for consistent outperformance over time). Our model indicates that, depending on transaction costs, the optimal risk-return portfolio consists of one to five stocks, which will be held for one to four months. Without transaction costs the strategy to buy each month the worst performing stock would have resulted in the highest outperformance of 2456% over the ten year period 1995-2005 (CAGR 38%). The optimal strategy with 1% transaction costs is to hold one stock for three months (834% outperformance or CAGR 25.0%). In all cases the stocks should not be held longer than six months, as the outperformance diminishes. These findings clearly point to reversal patterns in European property stocks and indicate, we believe, that one should adopt a contrarian strategy to take advantage. We find opposite results if we exchange the companies in our model for the FTSE/EPRA country indices, ie real estate country benchmarks. Now we find that the contrarian strategy does not work, but that one should opt for a momentum strategy. Our model indicates that the worst performing country of last month also significantly underperforms in the following months. On the other hand, the best performing country of last month is still significantly outperforming one month later. After that, the country outperformance diminishes during the following month, but tends to return one month later. The model indicates that the optimal strategy for country allocation is to buy the three best performing countries and hold those for seven months. We believe these findings could be of use to European fund managers. Taking into account these stock price reverting and country momentum patterns an investor in European real estate stocks could benefit in several ways by: 1. buying the underperformers and selling the outperformers of last month; 2. delaying a purchase in an outperformer and sale in an underperformer; 3. constructing a portfolio at zero cost by shorting the outperformers and buying the underperformers; 4. (on a country level) ignoring the worst performing countries, while holding on to the three best performing countries for seven months. // Our research contributes to the existing literature. Current research on momentum strategies is focused on the US REIT market, and to our knowledge there has been no research published on the listed European property market. While some US articles also find the existence of reversal patterns in the US REIT market, we believe our findings to be more compelling, as US-REIT share price patterns are found by applying filters: for example, buy the stocks with negative return or large share price drops (>5%), or that are not profitable if transaction costs and risk are taken into account. The model we studied always selects a pre-determined number of companies. We have also found one paper that concludes that momentum, not contrarian, strategies work in the US-REIT market. Furthermore, a recently published article on the UK direct property market finds that momentum strategies should be applied to achieve outperformance. We come to a different conclusion for listed companies, but more or less the same conclusion for country benchmarks based on listed securities. We constructed a model that, each month, ranks 28 European property companies in terms of performance over the ten year period 1996 to 2005. We believe that these 28 stocks are a fair reflection of the listed European property market. As all of our stocks currently still exist, we have not included takeovers in our sample. The user of the model can select the number of stocks in the portfolio, the holding period, the expected transaction costs and whether he/she wants to buy the best or the worst performers of last month. The performance of the portfolio is measured against a market capitalisation weighted. We have used total return data from Datastream. The portfolio returns are tested against the benchmark return for outperformance with the z-test and for consistent outperformance by regressing the monthly benchmark returns on the portfolio returns. We tested with the t-test whether the constant of the OLS regressing was significant or not. In order to get a feeling for the portfolio turnover we calculated the average of the monthly number of portfolio changes divided by the total number of possible changes. Next we calculated the standard deviation (risk) of the portfolio and benchmark return and divided the compounded annual return by the risk to determine the risk-return profile of the strategy. We believe that a portfolio is ëbeatingí the benchmark if it not only outperforms, but also passes both statistical tests and has a better risk-return profile. We included transaction costs (0.5% and 1%) for both buying and selling the security in order to assess whether one benefits from these trading strategies. We used the same approach for the country strategies as for companies. We included 13 countries over ten years in our sample.
Beyerle, Thomas, and Nico B. Rottke. "EXIT OPTIONS FOR OPPORTUNISTIC REAL ESTATE INVESTORS AND THEIR POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON REAL ESTATE MARKETS: GERMAN EVIDENCE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In several worldwide real estate markets, the phenomenon can be observed that in times of imbalanced market situations, together with a weak economic environment, international real estate investors with a high yield ìopportunisticî strategy, foremost US or U.K. funds, enter national markets and buy large real estate portfolios, real estate companies or non performing loan packages. Often, the imbalanced situation gets solved after some years as these opportunistic investors bring together supply and demand when equity resources are low. As this type of investor has a short term horizon, the portfolios are likely to be sold within a time frame of five to seven years. As the entry period typically happens to be within a short time slot as well - due to the economic environment - the exit period of most opportunistic investors will also be within a short time frame. This paper provides empirical evidence for the German real estate markets by analyzing the effect of portfolio purchases and potential sales of large residential real estate transactions from 1997 to 2005. Hypotheses are generated what will happen within the German residential real estate sector up until 2012. Comparisons are drawn to real estate markets in the US and the U.K.
Ordway, Olgierd Nicholas. "EXPANDING VALUATION THEORY BY INCORPORATING SYNERGY PRINCIPLES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The objective of this paper is to propose a systems theory model of real estate valuation of developments illustrating network connectivity between a specific site-based project and the external environment. In recent years the appraisal literature has added consideration of valuation of ìgoing concernî value incorporating tangible and intangible elements that contribute to the land and improvements. For example, there was a discernable expansion of coverage and detail on this topic between the 11th Edition (1996) of the Appraisal Instituteís primary textbook and its 12th Edition (2001). This paper proposes to take another step by incorporating synergy principles to valuation theory. Buckminster Fuller defined synergy as ìbehavior of whole systems unpredicted by the behavior of their parts taken separately.î (Synergetics, 1975). A recent Google search using the word set ìreal estate synergyî resulted in 1,780,000 hits. Downloading a sample of these sites indicates that ìsynergyî is used primarily as a marketing phrase and is only vaguely related to Fullerís system-based definition. An examination of standard real estate valuation textbooks demonstrates a lack of coverage on the concept and its applications. Synergy, however, is commonly used by such industry groups as property developers (Urban Land Institute) and shopping center operators (International Conference of Shopping Centers). Even with these groups, synergy is used only in prosaic applications. The original contribution of this paper is to describe a systematic taxonomy of positive and negative synergy principles. The taxonomy is the authorís original work. The paper illustrates application of these principles to evaluation and counseling assignments. A taxonomy of synergy principles was developed from cases studies and interviews of real estate professionals. These principles are placed in the context of a qualitative model showing an application to revenues, costs, financing, risks and options in a life-cycle analysis of real estate development. A conventional capitalization model is modified to include option pricing to evaluate the potential value of synergy applications. Evaluation of real estate developments in the context of synergy principles provides a better approach to uncertainty/risk assessment than more conventional quantitative techniques. The proposed taxonomy and model are appropriate for a certain category of counseling or evaluation assignments. Because of USPAP rules, the proposed model has limited application to more traditional appraisals.
Giambona, Erasmo, John Harding, and CF Sirmans. "EXPLAINING THE VARIATION IN REIT CAPITAL STRUCTURE: THE ROLE OF ASSET LIQUIDATION VALUE. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) with different property type focuses exhibit significant variation in capital structure. Average leverage ranges from a low of forty percent for industrial REITs to a high of sixty-one percent for hotel REITs. Debt maturity ranges from seventy-four months for office REITs to 105 months for hotel REITs. The extent of this variation is surprising because all REITS share common tax and governance attributes. In this paper, we explore the systematic variation in capital structure by REIT type. We first examine how well the traditional corporate finance explanations for variations in capital structure explain the observed variations within the REIT sector. Myers (1977) and Hart (1993) show that changes in leverage and the mix of long- and short-term debt can alter the incentives of managers and help resolve the over- and under-investment problems identified in the agency and corporate governance literature. Other theoretical papers have focused on the problems associated with asymmetric information between managers and investors (Diamond, 1991 and Titman, 1992) and the use of debt to signal the quality of the firm and its investment prospects. Several recent empirical studies have modeled a firmís capital structure choices (Datta, Iskandar-Datta and Raman, 2005, Johnson, 2003 and Barclay, Marx and Smith, 2003) that support these theories. We estimate a simultaneous equation model similar to Johnsonís (2003) for a panel data set of REITs and find that the ratio of market-to-book value (traditionally viewed as a proxy for firm growth opportunities) and firm size are significant in explaining both the leverage and debt maturity equations and have signs consistent with their hypothesized effects. We then extend the Johnson (2003) model to include measures of the liquidation value of the underlying collateral. Shleifer and Vishny (1992) argue that variations in the liquidation value of the assets across different industries can help explain the observed variations in capital structure by industry and time. Briefly, Shleifer and Vishny argue that firms in industries where assets have high liquidation values will use higher leverage and longer maturity debt. This liquidation value theory has been hard to test empirically because of difficulty in measuring liquidation values and consequently liquidation value has not been included in previous studies of firm capital structure. However, the REIT sector provides a unique opportunity to test this theory because REITs typically concentrate in a particular type of real estate asset and different types of real estate assets exhibit significant differences in liquidity and redeployability. We use two different quantitative measures of liquidity as well as a more subjective rank ordering of property types by liquidation value to extend the model of capital structure. First, because short-term leases provide the landlord an option to reorient the current property, we add the average lease maturity to the system of equations for leverage and debt maturity. Consistent with Shleifer and Vishnyís (1992) hypothesis, we find that REITs with shorter maturity lease structures use lower leverage and shorter maturity debt. Second, we measure liquidity by the average recovery on defaulted Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) loans collateralized by different property types. Highly liquid, easily redeployed assets should retain their value better than less liquid assets and thus result in lower average losses for lenders when a default occurs. When Johnsonís model is extended using this categorical variable, it provides further evidence that liquidation value influences capital structure. Finally, we extend the concept of liquidation value to include more qualitative measures of liquidity such as zoning flexibility and physical redeployability. We rank order the five major REIT property types using all four dimensions of liquidity and identify industrial and residential REITs as having the most liquid assets and office and retail REITs as having the least liquid assets. We re-estimate the model using property type indicators as proxies for liquidation value and find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that firms with highly liquid assets use more leverage and longer debt maturity. We conclude that the liquidity of the underlying assets significantly influences managementís choice of capital structure within the REIT sector.
Triantafyllopoulos, Nicolaos. "EXPLORING THE ATHENS OFFICE REAL ESTATE MARKET CRISIS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Since the year 2001, the Athens office real estate market has been in a continually deepening state of crisis. While office rental values are on a non-stop downward swing, which can be estimated today at as much as 50% as against in 2000, neither entrepreneurs nor the banks seem to be particularly troubled by the situation, while new offices are constantly being constructed. The crisis in the office real estate market in Athens is not a normal development, a slump, which can be considered part of the expected cyclical movement of the real estate market. It is the result of a bubble that appeared during 1995-2000, which is due to structural and statutory changes in the market. Due to the complexity of the phenomenon and various other circumstances, it is not possible to explore this, using neo-classical econometric models. After all, the Greek real estate market stands out for its extreme opacity and lack of reliable statistical data. This paper aims to explore the Athens Office crises through a New Institutional Economics approach. Particular attention is paid to the specific institutional changes that took place during the 1990s in the Greek real estate market. These changes led to the liberalization of the Greek financial system while importance was given to developing the stock market and competition among banks. Bank competition resulted in the expansion of the credit system and more lenient terms for issuing loans for real estate investments. This high financial liquidity drove share prices up in the stock market and the real estate market. In addition, financial liquidity is also largely result to the large prevalence of the underground economy and money laundering which is carried out via real estate ñ something that is helped by Greek legislation and banking practices. The office real estate market had already been twisted by a deregulated system of land use and a deficient system of managing buildings stock, while the tax system for real estate allowed speculative investments. Finally, particular attention is paid to the Athens urban context, the new infrastructure projects that were created during the period of study, as well as to the collective psychology expressed during the boom and bust of the office market.
Kurzrock, Bjorn-Martin. "EXTENDING THE INDEX TIME SERIES: THE PERFORMANCE OF THE GERMAN PROPERTY MARKET FROM 1989 THROUGH 2005 ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Property performance indices are a key analytical tool for the understanding and quantitative analysis of property markets. Through the expansion of the Investment Property Databank they now exist for a wide range of countries, enabling practitioners and researchers to perform comparative analyses as well as in depth studies of single markets based on real property performance data. The German Property Index was established in 1996. Now reaching a ten year time series the original index is still in a beginning stage relative to indices for other major property markets, such as the UK. This paper introduces a new time series from 1989 through 1995 for different use types, extending the German Property Index to a full property cycle from 1989 through 2005. The additional time series, like the original index, comprises of appraisal-based annual performance data from institutional property investors. The index now also provides useful insight into the performance of property investments during the initial upturn of the German economy following reunification.
Levy, Deborah S., and Claire Roberts. "EXTERNAL INFLUENCES ON PROPERTY INVESTMENT DECISIONS: THE UK CASE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This study aims to explore the influence of external actors on investment decision-making and the potential to subsequently prejudice investment outcomes in the UK office market. Research to date on decision-making processes in real estate has focused on the field of valuation. Work by Diaz (1990a; 1990b), Diaz and Hansz (1997) and Diaz and Wolverton (1998) have shown that valuers fail to follow the procedures in which they have been trained, take short cuts in their decision-making and are influenced various forms of market sentiment. Further to this, valuers have been found to be influenced by external actors such as the client. Levy and Schuck (2005) considered the potential for a client to influences the outcome of a valuation. Their findings indicate that opportunities to exert influence are afforded by the control the client has over the valuation process and that clients with expertise and a high level of knowledge of the property market are able to influence valuers by way of expert and information power. These studies reflect a gradual accumulation of evidence to suggest that valuers may be prone, in certain ways and in certain circumstances, to behave in a manner that is inconsistent with typical prescriptions (Gallimore, 1996). To date, these significant findings about actors in property, their behaviour and the influences on their behaviour have not been applied in any consistent manner to any other fields in property research. There is a limited literature available to describe the process of property investment decision-making. That which does exist portrays the process fundamentally as an exercise in rational analysis, evaluation and choice. Several studies have highlighted the distinct and continuing preference of UK investors for office properties located in the core market, irrespective of their relative performance (Ball, 1998; Key et al., 1998; Rowley and Henneberry, 1999). Despite this evidence and a clear need for further study, to date there has been little research done on the process of decision-making, influences on the process and the potential for bias or outside influences to prejudice this process. In order to gain a deeper understanding the structure and nature of the property market, it is essential to appreciate the nature and characteristics of the underlying processes and influences that drive the market. This paper reports on a series of interviews with property investment managers in the UK property market undertaken in mid-2004. The study has identified three distinct groups who play a significant role in the investment decision-making of property investment managers in the UK. These groups have all been found to exert varying degrees of influence at different stages of the decision-making process and to cause significant deviations from normative models of decision making. Influences of this scope and magnitude have the potential to bias the investment process and subsequently affect investment outcomes.
Özdilek, Ünsal. "EXTRACTING THE LAND VALUE OUT OF THE VALUES OF IMPROVED PROPERTIES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. "This study investigates the value of improved urban land in a North American context, more specifically in Montreal (Canada). It follows two main goals in response to the difficulties of: * Explaining the improved urban land value determinants; * Estimating its market value. // These interrelated difficulties, particularly regarding ìReal Estate Evaluationî and ìUrban Economicsî fields, are specifically engendered in a shortage of vacant land market. In fact, in the current context of cities, the majority of the observed prices in the marketplace include the price of the land and that of the buildings. In such a situation the prevalent question is to know how much the price of each represents in the total selling price of the properties. In the first goal of the research, different theoretical conceptions explaining the formation of land prices are examined. Their analysis makes clear that the land price is usually confounded within the total property price. In the second gaol research, this one empirical in nature, available methods of property evaluation are explored. Their synthesis demonstrates that they remain inoperative in the case of improved non-income generating urban lands, allotted especially to the single family residential properties. Income-producing lands, however, find satisfactory answers within the residual rent method, supported by the classical ricardian rent theory. Contrary to the vacant land market, the single family properties market contains a sufficient number of comparable sales, but encounters the difficulty of total price apportionment between the land-building components. This study perceives that it can nevertheless be treatable under the neoclassical view of utility, by using the hedonic method it supports. It is accepted that a hedonic method allows for the ""decomposition"" of the total property price between its multiple attributes and the reconstitution of its total value by the sum of their marginal contributions. Although frequently applied in this matter by academicians and practitioners, its capacities have not been explored with the objectives of explaining and estimating ìseparateî values for land and buildings. In its present form, it does not discriminate, neither in theory nor in practise, the particular attributes of these components. This research therefore suggests the incorporation of a new specification to the current hedonic models allowing them to deal with the two underlined difficulties. This new specification propose that the price of a property is not a sole ìbundleî of residential services as suppose hedonic models, but rather a function of two independent ìbundleî of services: * a first bundle containing the differential site advantages (DSA) ; and * a second bundle containing the differential housing advantages (DHA). // The proposed model explains the separate market value of improved lands through their DSA attributes, as is the market value of the buildings through their DHA attributes. It reaches also to an estimate of the ìseparate hedonic valuesî of land and building components; the sum of the two entities forming the total market value of a single family property."
Merkle, Sebastian, and Tobias Streckel. "FACE THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIOS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Doing business is always associated with various risks. Especially the real estate sector faces the problem of long term developments where it is hard to respond to a changing market once a construction project is finished. The global real estate market has changed dramatically over the last few years. Economic fluctuations, innovative financial structures, evolving market demand and a changing investor base. This all leads to new forms and levels of risk that have to be solved. Current studies have identified well over one thousand specific risks in the real estate market. Some of these risks fluctuate on a regular basis; others are fairly stable. Some risks are a direct result of the day-to-day decisions made by management, while others are tied to the market. In our paper we will look into the risks associated with real estate portfolios thoroughly. Our goal is to pinpoint the main areas where risks occur and major mistakes were done in the past. We will conclude our short lesson with some ideas how to prevent the risk and show up strategies to deal with real estate portfolios safely. We will present our outcomes in a concise power point presentation which will be available for all ERES participants to download from our homepage.
Kyrein, Rolf, and Rudolf Schäfer. "FEASIBILITY STUDIES - A DIDACTIC INSTRUMENT FOR INTERDISCIPLINARITY IN REAL ESTATE EDUCATION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. There is a broad consensus that successful real estate management requires the ability to think interdisciplinarily and across the borders of the stakeholder systems involved in the process of this management. Such thinking is also the fundament to take into consideration that real estate management has to be oriented to the demand of sustainability with its three dimensions of economy, ecology and the socio-cultural context. The implementation of these principles in the field of practical real estate education is complicated. This paper presents and discusses the concept of and the experiences with feasibility studies as strategic element of real estate education in the Real Estate Management (REM) Masters` Course at Technische University Berlin (TUB). This master course addresses to professionals with a diploma (Dipl., Ms., BA) mainly in the field of architecture and planning and with several years of practical experience. Today REM TUB can look back on experiences of 7 semesters with 10 projects in 4 courses. In the curriculum of TUB¥s REM Course case studies in form of feasibility studies play a strategic role. They are defined as ìback boneî of the interdisciplinary course and should prove as ìlitmus testî for a successful learning process. To do this they must face a number of demands and conditions examplified and discussed in the paper and described in short as follows. During the whole two-years-course there are three projects according to the following system: 1. semester: ìex postî analysis of a project which has been already realised or at least decided (e.g. ìEastgateî mall in Berlin-Marzahn, partner ECE); 2. semester: Feasibility study (ìex anteî) with focus on site and project development (e.g. former power plant area Berlin Charlottenburg Nord, partner Vattenfall); 3. semester: Feasibility study (ìex anteî) with focus on project realisation (e.g. former Post Station Berlin, partner Deutsche Post Immobilien). The integration of the project work into the context of the semester curriculum seems easy but has proved itself a very complicated procedure. Particularly in the first semester students have to understand, that not all the stuff that is necessary for project work can be presented by systematic lectures in advance or at least parallel. These problems can only be reduced by a tough coordination and communication of teachers. In reality this means at least three meetings of teachers per semester, which means a hard challenge for German university faculty. The projects are coached by a project coordinator assisted by a project tutor. Thus it is possible to accompany the work of the students with high intensity, to organise meetings with the site owners or developers/investors and to organise also special lectures to issues that are relevant for the project work. In general the teachers ofthe main disciplines have to act as an expert panel for the project teams. As methodology is concerned students are trained to systematical work with benchmarks. Particularly in the field of urban design, architectural and infrastructural planning this method leads to fast and realistic solution finding and decision making. Students are obliged to work in teams of 4-6 members, each of them responsible for certain thematic dimensions of the project. Although the teams should be mixed with regard to the professions of their members these have to choose issues that are not identical with their home profession. To enhance their soft skills students are trained in presentation techniques and have to present the results of their work in a session open for representatives of the site owners, developers, investors and invited real estate companies. The experiences within the framework of REM TUB have encouraged TUB to start an initiative for similar project work in ìnormalî courses of architecture and planning schools in those universities that are members of ìagenda4î. Since 2005 an annual students¥ competition is organised for these 11 universities in cooperation with and sponsored by prominent real estate companies (2005 aurelis; 2006 IVG and RWE). Of course the project work in this competition cannot have the same professional standard as described for REM TUB. But the substantial conditions of the working process are similar and the results of the first run in 2005 are encouraging: 44 teams with about 300 students participated. One can expect that this initiative is an outstanding contribution for the widening of real estate related contents in the education of architects and planners in Germany and thus for the improvement of this education towards more sustainability in real estate management.
Robertsen, Karl, and Theis Theisen. "FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENTS, HOUSING PRICES AND HOME OWNERSHIP ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Housing policies in many countries emphasise that households should have the possibility to own their own homes. In order to achieve this goal, it is important that the financial threshold for purchasing a dwelling is kept at a low level. The Scandinavian housing cooperatives provide an interesting devise in this respect. Those living in housing cooperatives can be regarded as the legal owners of the housing unit they occupy, similar to what is the case for those living in non-cooperative dwellings. Moreover, prices of both types of dwellings are market determined. The two types of homeownership are, however, different in two important respects. First, they differ in how the housing units are financed. Second, they differ in how decisions affecting all units in a housing cooperative are taken. In the present paper we provide an analysis of how financial structure and organizational form affect the prices of housing units. We are not aware of previous analysis of how organizational forms like the Scandinavian housing cooperatives affect prices. Our analysis of the impact of financial structure is related to the literature on creative financing, but we contribute by using a very different type of data. For dwellings in housing cooperatives, the price paid by the buyer consists of two elements: First, there is an equity price, determined through a normal competitive bidding process. Second, each dwelling in a housing cooperative carries a share of the mutual debt held by the cooperative. This share of the cooperativeís debt is paid down by the owner through monthly instalments. The amount of money an entrant to a housing cooperative has to raise himself, either by drawing on his saving account, or by obtaining a bank loan, corresponds to the equity price. If the mutual debt is small, the equity price will be high. A large share of the households may then be constrained in their access to credit, and may thus be barred from entering the housing cooperative. If the mutual debt is large, however, the entrance barrier for first-time home-buyers will be low. This is inter alia due to the fact that the responsibility for the mutual debt is shared between all the members of a housing cooperative. Let us define the equity ratio as the equity price divided by the sum of the equity price and the share of the mutual debt resting on the dwelling. In the data used in the present paper, the equity ratio for cooperative housing units may vary between 0.15 and 1.00. In addition, the sample includes non-cooperative (freeholder) dwellings, where the equity ratio is 1.0. Hence, the data provide good opportunities for identifying how financial structure affects the market price of dwellings. Moreover, we are able to identify the impact of organizational form. We identify these effects through the estimation of hedonic price equations. Housing cooperatives usually obtain loans on more favourable conditions than single households. This reflects that the risk premium included in the interest rate on the debt of housing cooperatives is smaller than for a freeholder. Presumably, this advantage is capitalized in the market price, resulting in a higher total price (equity price plus share of mutual debt carried by the housing unit) for dwellings in housing cooperatives than for a corresponding freeholderís dwelling. Moreover, this effect is expected to be stronger the smaller is the equity ratio. The results indicated above have important policy implications. First, they suggest that financial arrangements can be used to increase the rate of homeownership, even in the absence of government subsidies. In particular, the results show how entry barriers for first-time home-buyers can be lowered. Equally important, these benefits come at the cost of a higher market price. We estimate the extent of this price increase. To our knowledge, this type of analysis has not previously been carried out. The price effect discussed above rests on the estimated hedonic price equations. In addition, a model explaining the rationale for the price effects will be developed, partly building on the existing theories on borrowing constraints, credit rationing and homeownership financing. To explain the effects of the financing system of the Norwegian housing cooperatives, we will however have to develop new theory elements of how the housing market is affected by this financing system. To conclude, our main hypothesis is that the financing systems of the Norwegian housing cooperatives affect market prices, resulting in higher prices for cooperative dwellings with low equity ratio. Nevertheless, through reducing the extent of credit rationing, this may lead to a higher ratio of homeownership.
Daube, Dirk, and Susann Vollrath. "FINANCING OF PPPS IN GERMANY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Public Private Partnership (PPP) means the long term co-operation between public and private sector. The central objective of PPP is to improve efficiency in realising public infrastructure. PPP-projects are characterised by an holistic life cycle approach, which includes one-stop planning, construction, financing, operating and utilisation by a private company. Financing is one of the services that private companies deliver to the public sector within PPP-projects. There are two basic forms of financing used for PPP-projects in Germany. These are: project finance and non-recourse forfaiting of instalments. The typical financing model for PPP-projects in the international PPP-market is nearly exclusively project finance. This comprises the financing of a particular project mainly based on the cash flow of the project. The non-recourse forfaiting of instalments is a special arrangement in Germany. Thereby, the private contractor sells his receivables resulting from the service contract with the public sector to the bank, while the public principal waives an objection to the sold receivables against the bank. In-between these two models a multiplicity of variations of legal arrangements are possible that are adapted to the specific requirements of the project. Which of these forms is chosen to finance PPP-project and how it will be structured depends on the size of the project, the allocation of risks predetermined by the public sector and the legal framework of the specific project. A dynamic PPP market is developing in Germany. Since 2002, about 25 PPP real estate projects with an investment volume of about 600 million Euro have been implemented, while over 100 projects are scheduled at present. The non-recourse forfaiting of instalments was the preferred financing model for most of the implemented projects. In contrast to the international practice, project finance is only used in a few projects. Presently, the question of the appropriate financing form for PPP-projects ñ project finance or non-recourse forfaiting ñ is discussed controversially. In this context, many contributions to the discussion are misleading and increases the uncertainty of public principals and private companies. This paper intends to objectify the discussion by providing arguments from the perspective of both the private and the public sector. It shows that a general recommendation for one of both forms cannot be given. In fact, the economic efficiency of the financial model depends on the specific requirements of the project and the public principal. Therefore, an evaluation of each concrete situation is necessary to determine the appropriate model and its structure, in order to reach the main objective of PPP ñ economic efficiency.
Brounen, Dirk, and Peter Neuteboom. "FIRST-TIME BUYERS GOING DUTCH ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The flow of new buyers into homeownership is vital for the overall health of the housing market. First-time buyers propel the blood circulation in the housing market by creating the necessary liquidity at the lower end of the market. In this paper we examine the economics of first-time buyers in the Dutch market over the period 1985 to 2003, using a unique panel data set of 70.000 households. Our analysis composes of three parts. After describing the characteristics of Dutch first-time buyers over time we start our analysis with an examination of affordability of home-ownership for first-time buyers for the years 1985, 1995 and 2003. By incorporating the time variant development of effective financing costs and disposable income we are able to compare affordability of home-ownership along time. Next we focus our research on accessibility. By screening the demand and supply numbers in the market, we compare the accessibility of the different regions in the market. In this section we also focus on the turnover rates of different price- and quality segments in the market in order properly assess the available accessibility. In the final portion of our study we utilize unique household panel data in order to quantify the probability of first-time buyers actually entering the market of homeowners. Regression analysis will help us to identify the key variables that determine the likelihood of homeownership and test trends over time.
McIntosh, Ian, and Graeme Newell. "FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT PRACTICES BY LPTS IN AUSTRALIA ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Listed property trusts (LPTs) have been a successful indirect property investment vehicle in Australia, accounting for over 1,500 institutional-grade properties valued at over $100 billion in both diversified and sector-specific portfolios. With LPTs accounting for 49% of all institutional-grade property in Australia, the lack of local investment opportunities has seen LPTs seeking international property investments in recent years, particularly in the US and more recently in Europe and Asia. This has seen the establishment of LPTs to invest solely in international property, as well as LPTs which have merged their international and domestic property portfolios, with international property now accounting for 35% of LPT total assets. Given these increasingly significant levels in international property in these LPT portfolios, it is important for LPTs to use a variety of financial mechanisms to mitigate foreign exchange risk arising from their foreign currency exposures. This paper will assess the significance of the foreign exchange risk management procedures utilised by LPTs for both capital and income risk management; this will be based on a survey of all LPTs in Australia, as well as in-depth interviews with LPT fund managers.
Byrne, Peter, and Stephen Lee. "GEOGRAPHICAL CONCENTRATION IN THE INSTITUTIONAL MARKET FOR OFFICE PROPERTY IN ENGLAND AND WALES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper examines the geographical investment practices of institutional investors in the commercial real estate office market in 1998 and 2003 in England and Wales, using some previously unused datasets. The findings show that investors concentrate their holdings in a few (urban) areas and that this concentration is becoming more pronounced as investors rationalise their office holdings. The pre-eminence of the City of London and West End office markets as the key focus of institutional investment is confirmed. The findings also indicate that office investment does not fully correlate with the UK urban hierarchy as measured by population, but is focused on areas with high service sector employment. The question is raised as to the ërulesí that fund managers use to decide on where their holdings should be.
Zieba, Malgorzata. "GERMAN EXPERIENCE IN URBAN REGENERATION - CONCLUSIONS FOR POLAND? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Based on the findings from research on German Soziale Stadt Program, the paper considers the conditions of application of similar solutions in urban regeneration for Polish conditions. Modern concept of urban regeneration applied in Germany and some other Western European countries is derived from the concept of social inclusion of neglected neighbourhoods and their inhabitants. To stop the process of physical degradation of space, to stop the downward spiral of social exclusion of the communities, the program pools recourses and applies innovative organizational structures to tackle problems in various fields: local economy, culture, health, housing, employment, social conflicts. Crucial in this new approach towards urban problems is the employment of urban development measures and projects to remedy bad social conditions. Urban development measures have become just one of the tools applied to solve complex problems of urban areas. Repair of the building stock neglect is no more the aim in itself. The main question of the paper is whether the aims and methods of such programs are relevant for Polish conditions. The author assumes that the superior aim of this programme approach - the sustainable improvement of the living conditions of the people in the disadvantaged districts by the measures of the active and integrated urban development policy ñ has universal value and its application in Poland should be recommended. Polish legal, administrative, political and financial conditions are considered and evaluated to find out whether the concept of socio-spatial policy, combing spatial policiesí measures with tools to deal with social problems of selected areas might be useful in our country. Typical problems if Polish cities are taken into account and current as well past approach towards urban regeneration and urban development has been analysed to emphasize the typical points of Polish approach to urban regeneration. An attempt is made to point barriers in application socially integrative urban regeneration approach in Poland.
Casado, Jose Manuel, Angeles M. Casado, Karen M. Gibler, Vicente Rodriguez, and Paloma Taltavull de La Paz. "GERMAN RETIREES LIVING IN ALICANTE: THE REVICVAL SURVEY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The province of Alicante (Spain) is one of the most attractive areas to German retirees owning a house to live. Revicval survey is a project where we ask to a sample of Germans retirees different aspects of their housing decision, both sociological and economic. The aim is to analyse the impact on housing markets resulting from the concentration of this type of migration and also the existing differences with other nationalities like British. We also check for their welfare living in this region and their perception of the cost of living differences.
Abednego, Martinus, and Stephen O. Ogunlana. "GOOD PROJECT GOVERNANCE FOR BETTER PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Since the financial crisis in 1997, countries in the Asian region had struggled to revive their economic growth and infrastructure development is considered as one of the stimulant. However, the required high amount of capital investment and the limited available resources to finance such development forced the government to search and implement an alternative approach. Public-Private Partnership (PPP) is considered by many and has so far been the appropriate alternative approach which not only allows better allocation for governmentís limited resources but also has the capability to ensure quality improvement as a result of private participation. Although a number of projects have been developed through PPP, however, quite a few problems still occur in this procurement system. Practitioners such as government agencies and private enterprises, as well as academicians have attempted to discover the most suitable and practical approach for this procurement system. Nevertheless, the search is still on-going. Moreover, projects that are under PPP procurement system are generally challenged with both p project management problems which require day-to-day supervision (short term) as well as partnership problems which require more of a strategic approach (long term), and that many have confusingly intertwined these two characteristics. Since PPP projects can be considered to have governance concerns because it deals with monitoring and overseeing strategic direction as well as strategic decision-making, this paper will discuss about the development of good project governance theory and how this concept can be utilized as a foundation to develop a guideline to help enhance the performance of projects under PPP procurement system. A systematic research through literature studies and interviews are performed for this purpose and a comparative analysis between 2 case studies in Thailand and Indonesia will also be discussed in this paper.
Alexandropoulou, Ioanna. "GREEK LAW ON PPP: PROTECTING EU ECONOMIC OPERATORSí PARTICIPATION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. A law outlining the institutional framework for Public-Private Partnerships has been recently passed in Greece. One of the focal points during the negotiations for passing the PPP law in Greek Parliament was the attempt to align the Greek law with recent EU directives on the coordination of procedures for the award of public contracts. These directives aim at offering the basic framework for protecting the interests of businesses based in EU Member States wishing to cooperate with contracting authorities based in another member state. The main objective of these directives is to avert the risks for EU investors being preferred in PPP contracts, as well as ruling out the possibility of consignment authorities selecting private partners based on non-financial criteria. However, the EU directive disposals cannot be enforced in all PPP contracts. In addition, the disposals primarily concern the stage before the award of the contract, and the arrangement of the remaining issues that arise after the selection of the private partner are left to the public authority option. It is generally accepted that although the procedures of this stage are not arranged by EU law, they are protected by the principles of non-discrimination, transparency and equal treatment that arise out of the Treaty. It is widely acknowledged that despite the weaknesses inherent in the EU legal framework concerning public contracts, it is a context for a modicum of protection and a means for safeguarding the interests of PPP partners based in EU Member States. This is why it is extremely important to examine the degree to which the new law is aligned with the directive provisions on the coordination of procedures for the award of public contracts. The aim of this paper is: * To examine the degree to which the Greek law on PPPs is aligned with EU directives on the coordination of procedures for the award of public contracts; * To underline the protection mechanisms of investment candidates from other EU Member States, as defined by the PPP law. // The paper expects: * To ascertain whether the Greek PPP law responds to the expectations for bringing Greek legislation in line with the EU legal framework for public contracts; * To draw conclusions regarding the safeguarding of the interests of EU partner entreprises which wish to invest in Greece via the PPP procedure.
Brounen, Dirk, Joop Huij, and Wessel Marquering. "HOT HANDS IN REITS: A SECOND LOOK ON RETURN PERSISTENCE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In this paper we analyze the persistence of US REITs over the period 1990-2005. By employing a novel methodological approach we shed new light on whether investors can pick winners by simply looking at past performance. The private real estate industry is notorious for its lack of informational transparency. Hence, professional portfolio managers with superior skills and access to scarce information might be capable of persistently outperforming their competitors in this market. We conduct a two-stage approach to investigate this matter. First we analyze whether outperformance, quantified by a conventional Jensen alpha in a single index model specification, is persistent over time. Our first results indicate that future outperformance is indeed a function of success from previous eras. Next we calibrate a principal component model in which we identify the structural variation in performance across different real estate subsectors like the office, residential and retail market. We construct subsector indices that capture the performance of these individual submarkets and run multivariate regressions in order to correct for these sectors characteristics. When repeating our persistence analysis we find that persistence in outperformance increased when including the sector specific return effects. Apparently, some REIT-managers are more successful in selecting and managing real estate objects that continue to outperform the portfolios of competitors in their own line of industry.
Baldry, David, Les Ruddock, and Noralfishah Sulaiman. "HOUSING AND SOCIAL POLICY IN MALAYSIA: PROVISION FOR THE ELDERLY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The aged population is increasing in Malaysia. Malaysia will be categorized as an ageing nation when the order population reaches to 7.2% (1.8 million) by 2005. In a society where aging is progressing, and where even among elderly people there is an increasingly larger class of older senior citizens, the increasing number of elderly people requiring appropriate housing and personal care (board or personal care) will be an even greater issue of importance. To cope with the increase in elderly, Malaysia needs to have a careful housing and social policy plan to fulfill the housing needs, especially for the aging citizens. However, it seems like there is an ambiguous relationship between housing and social policy in Malaysia towards the elderly society. Hence, this paper seeks to discuss the provision of housing and social policy structure for the elderly to be housed in Malaysia. Past and current propositions on housing for the elderly will also be reviewed.
Hempe, Sascha, and Markus Mändle. "HOUSING CO-OPERATIVES - A STUDY CONCERNING STUDENTS AS HOUSING DEMANDERS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The paper presents results of a primary study regarding the requirements of younger people who possibly could be members of housing co-operatives in the future. It concerns about the knowledge, the attitudes and the needs younger housing demanders have regarding housing co-operatives. As an element of the target group of young housing demanders students were interviewed. The analysis of the students' opinion gives a first assistance for strategic reflections and decisions. With regard to serious social and economic changes housing co-operatives face new challenges. In 2004 the ìExpertenkommission Wohnungsgenossenschaftenî ñ a commission of experts appointed by the Bundesministerium f¸r Verkehr, Bau und Wohnungswesen ñ made clear that it is important to develop the promising potentials of housing co-operatives especially by a purposeful marketing orientation. In this context it was recommended to focus on younger people as co-operative members in the future (in fact the average age of the members of housing co-operatives nowadays is quite high). Thatís what we do in our study as we focus on students (notably graduates) as a part of young housing demanders in the future. As an element of the group of younger people n = 400 incoming graduates from all faculties of N¸rtingen University were questioned. The data acquisition took place via a written group questioning with the help of a questionnaire. The questionnaire was distributed among the students in the context of a lecture, filled out by them and afterwards collected in. The results and especially the managerial conclusions aroused interest and were also discussed with managers of housing co-operatives in practice. With respect to the theoretical aspect primary studies concerning this topic are quite rare. The study examined the knowledge, the attitudes and the needs students have regarding housing co-operatives. In terms of knowledge a certain lack of information concerning housing co-operatives could be detected. Theyíve not rarely been seen nearby public utility institutions. Quite surprising were the results concerning the attitudes the students have towards the housing co-operatives. Their image was not ìold-fashionedî (as expected). The students were rather open-minded and attributed the housing co-operative a very attractive combination of steadiness, authenticity and well-pricing. As a consequence marketing activities in this group seem astonishing profitable. With regard to their needs the students prefer a good standard of accommodation. In this academic target group (probably not in the whole group of young housing demanders) a good quality of living is clearly seen more important than well-pricing, influence capability or further services offered. One problem for housing co-operatives is that students do not primarily relate them to the favoured good standard of accommodation. That seems to be a starting-point for purposeful marketing activities.
Kauko, Tom. "HOUSING CONSUMPTION AND PREFERENCES AT THE MICRO LEVEL - COMPARISON OF AHP EXERCISES FROM SIX DIFFERENT EUROPEAN MARKET SEGMENTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The role of locational quality in housing consumption is an increasingly important research objective given the demand-side considerations stemming from socio-cultural changes in the population of urban and metropolitan housing market areas. In circumstances involving diversified demand, the consumption pattern comprises a set of different preference profiles. From an operational point of view, such outcome can be generated through ranking locational attributes with respect to their relative importance for the house buyer or renter. This procedure may, for example, be based on pair-wise comparison of attributes based on expert judgements and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). While not sufficiently robust in itself, this information is suitable to enhance the housing market analysis by confirming and animating the findings obtained by larger scale models based on market data. This multiple case study on housing consumption and locational feasibility is based on expert elicited residential location quality profiles. The study forms an integral part of a broader project on housing market, property prices and locational preferences in various European metropolitan areas. The following six supply side segments from three different country-contexts (Finland, The Netherlands, Hungary) were investigated: (1) multi-storey, and (2) single-family housing, respectively, in suburban metropolitan Helsinki; (3) Amsterdam urban areas; (4) the urban areas in other main cities in Randstad Holland; (5) suburban areas in Randstad Holland; (6) the outer part of Pest inner city in Budapest. Each case is investigated using the AHP and open in-depth interviews of experts. (As the first five cases have been documented elsewhere, here particular attention is paid to the sixth case.) Subsequently, various naturalizing generalisations about locational profiles are obtained. The cross-country evidence indicates fundamental differences in housing consumer tastes and intentions between the housing market segments.
Anikeeff, Michael, Peter Chinloy, and Isaac Megbolugbe. "HOUSING FINANCE AND EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The bulk of the literature on analysis of the potential of the US housing finance markets to serve underserved population and areas has been based almost exclusively on mortgage lending business models. Some authors even examined how far the industry could go in expanding homeownership opportunities if income or credit constraints were totally relaxed in mortgage loan underwriting. There is no doubt that the 1990s saw record homeownership rates and major strides in closing the gap between majority and minority homeownership rates. Despite the various demographic challenges that the industry confronted, lenders made important inroads in increasing low-income homeownership. New marketing techniques, aggressive outreach and availability of loans with increasingly higher loan to value ratios contributed to these gains. Armed with more sophisticated underwriting standards, new product types, and a mandate for experimentation, the housing finance industry attacked down payment and credit standards that constrained borrowing for many families on the margin of homeownership. One concern that has arisen is that the excessive focus on the mortgage side of homeownership financing leaves new homeowners overleveraged. Increased mortgage debt imposes a risk of default and of affordability. It causes homeowners to reallocate cash budgets to debt service, thereby reducing cash available for other expenditures. Another problem is that mortgage debt receives favorable tax treatment, including deductibility in computing taxable income. Low- and moderate-income buyers have by definition low- and moderate income. Therefore they benefit relatively less from the tax advantages of debt. The cost of capital for any household is a weighted average of the cost of equity and the cost of debt. For a given cost of equity capital, a household with a low or zero marginal tax rate has a higher after-tax cost of debt capital. Therefore the cost of capital is higher for low- and moderate-income households, and that is accentuated by emphasizing leverage, or debt finance. A third problem is the impact of leveraged finance on the physical stock of housing capital. If leveraged homeowners tend to default, and that leads to foreclosures, there is a contagion of low-quality housing in a given neighborhood. Leveraged housing finance creates a negative externality. The long-time homeowner with relatively low leverage sees a decline in housing values caused by the entry of risky and leveraged neighbors. Some of these problems can be resolved with shift of focus to the equity side of the cost of capital for homeownership. Consequently, this paper discusses methods for financing housing for low-income households to emphasize equity instead of debt. First, the paper examines the various problems that low-income households have with the current debt-orientated homeownership financing system. With a zero marginal tax rate these households do not benefit from the deductions for mortgage interest or tax-free imputed rent. With substandard collateral and characteristics, these borrowers typically do not qualify for conventional financing. The result is that conventional financing accounts for less than one-third of the housing finance taken up by low-income households. The other two-thirds consists of loans with explicit government backing and sub-prime private lenders charging higher rates and under constrained conditions. Given their lack of wealth, low-income borrowers fund equity informally through mutual pooling arrangements or unrecorded debt. Of course, many more simply do not become owners. Second, the paper models a three-tiered instrument involving equity, mezzanine finance and debt. // Equity: Pooling. Equity markets are enhanced by formalizing pooling contracts, such as rotating savings and credit accounts widely used by low-income borrowers, targeting at least 5% down payments. // Mezzanine: Credit enhancement. Mezzanine finance comes through pools providing 15% to 20% of the house price placed as debt or equity. The credit enhancement allows debt finance and limits the loan-to-value ratio to 80%. // Debt: Conventional plus. The debt is a hybrid between the conventional market and subprime, targeting borrowers who cannot qualify conventionally. Potential homeowners save for equity through savings accounts that allow rotating lump-sum draws. Contingent on the size of their down payment, a mezzanine fund provides additional funding at closing. The return on the fund is from a premium over the conventional prime mortgage rate and either an equity position or a look-back second mortgage with no payment. The homeowner receives an interest in the mezzanine fund. The paper examines the implications of securitizing the mezzanine fund, leading to a tradable security backed by home equity shares, the last large illiquid asset in wealth. // The paper concludes with a discussion of key market impacts of a housing financing regime that shifts its orientation more to increasing participation of the equity capital markets. Low-income borrowers move from loans with high non-deductible interest rates in the subprime market and from government loans with moral hazard and default risk to loans with lower rates, higher equity and a diversified portfolio. The program combines the community ties of informal savings accounts with formal safeguards from a tradable mezzanine equity fund. This monitoring and lower leverage reduces the default risk while retaining the low prepayment risk of these borrowers. he arrangement helps conventional conduits meet regulatory mandates to lend to low-income borrowers and have new product lines in the mezzanine and equity funds.
Kallakmaa-Kapsta, Angelika, Ene Kolbre, and Taavi Ojala. "HOUSING MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN ESTONIA: IS THERE REAL ESTATE BOOM EXPECTED? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The Estonian economy and along with it the real estate market, especially housing market, has been in rapid development since its very existence in the 1990s. In resent years there have been repeated hints of an approaching real estate crash and of a possibility of extremely pessimistic development scenarios. The aim of this paper is to examine the possibilities of future development of housing market in Estonia. The development of the housing market has been investigated from three main aspects. Firstly, we evaluate the development and changes of Estonian economic environments and provide links to the general development of the whole real estate market and especially of housing market. Secondly, in greater detail we analyse demand and factors influencing it in housing market. Thirdly, we investigate supply of the housing market, the factors that facilitate and inhibit this development. The housing market development in Estonia, their differences and similarities with Latvia and Lithuania are also presented in the article. Statistical and econometric techniques are employed to find the drivers that influence the major housing market and its development in future.
de La Paz, Paloma Taltavull. "HOUSING SUPPLY AND PRICES EQUILIBRIUM. A CASE STUDY ON THE SPANISH HOUSING MARKET ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. House building in Spain has been very intensive from last 15 years, showing a strong expansion on housing stock only comparable with the one happened during seventies. The growth has been explained as the results of some demand forces acting together at the same time, having higher impact on Spanish supply comparatively than others countriesí supply at a similar increase on prices. Housing supply determinants are less known. This article evaluates the sensibility of house-building during the period 1987-2004 seeking for its role on the housing prices behaviour. So, this is a focus based on supply side. We use two different econometric techniques to estimate supply elasticities, panel and VEC, for all Spain and the different regions named ëComunidades AutÛnomasí. The average elasticity of supply for Spain is close to one (0.85) during the analyzed period. Our results support other research showing how housing supply elasticity is very variable across time and space, with regions showing higher elasticities instead other areas where the elasticity is not significant. Most cases show how the market signals can explain what has happened in the Spanish housing market during last 15 years, but others show how some regions exist where the housing market is very intervened.
Kucharska-Stasiak, Ewa. "IMPLEMENTATION OF INTERNATIONAL VALUATION STANDARDS IN AN EMERGING MARKET - THREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES:THE CASE OF POLAND ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Globalization and its accompanying international movements of capital significantly affect the real estate markets. For instance, they strengthen the trend towards creating consistent standards for asset valuation, including real estate. An expression of the trend is the International Valuation Standards (IVS). According to the IVS, property valuers operating in the emerging markets cannot disobey fundamental terms and rules within the commonly applied valuation principles. Their implementation becomes therefore an objective necessity. Regarding general definitions and rules, the National Valuation Standards (NVS) should evolve towards the IVS. Compared with the National Valuation Standards operative in Poland, the 7th edition of the International Valuation Standards is expected to bring in the following important changes: * to introduce a single definition of the market value. The fundamental and integral part of an appraisal process is the notion of the highest and best use of a property; * to indicate the replacement value as a method for arriving at the market value. // Both the changes are revolutionary for todayís community of property valuers in Poland. The paper aims to: * identify areas, where the effects of implementing the IVS will appear;* assess IVS implementation impacts on the evolution of market values of real estate, capital allocation and the use of real estate by investors, creditors, as well as property valuers, etc.; * indicate the directions of NVS modifications, as well as the pace of implementation of the changes. // The paper is built on four research methods: * an analysis and evaluation of the literature of the subject; * SWOT analysis; * a case study; * a questionnaire survey targeted to property valuers. // The first method allows to identify the scope of the changes, the second method indicates the weak and strong points of the implemented changes, as well as threats and opportunities. The third method, seeking the value of a postindustrial property using first property valuation methods used in Poland today and then the IVS rules, allows to estimate the effects of the changes, whereas the fourth method presenting opinions shared by the community of property valuers provides a ground for formulating a thesis about the pace of changes to be implemented.
Alfen, Hans Wilhelm, Renate Fruchter, and Andrea Jungbecker. "IMPLEMENTING THE PPP APPROACH INTO EDUCATION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Facing a worldwide growing market for Public Private Partnership projects on national and international level it is understood that there is an increasing need for interdisciplinary and intercultural competences in the teams developing the projects. As project teams are more and more globally distributed also cutting-edge technical solutions for their collaboration is required. This paper describes the efforts of the pbl-Laboratory at Stanford University, USA and the Knowledge [email protected] at Bauhaus-University, Germany to implement these professional needs of the PPP market into the education of students as a project based learning experience. The development of this joint effort is presented, the steps taken to implement the Lifecycle approach explained and the experience of the project assessed. For many years the Stanford University has been carrying out the reputable AEC Global Teamwork Project where students of Architecture, Structural Engineering and Construction Management work on an interdisciplinary and intercultural base on complex construction projects. The AEC Project like no other student project contributes to the objective to provide students with the professional skills needed. Five years ago Bauhaus students also joint the program. Since this year the Knowledge [email protected] also contributes to the assignment of the project: A fourth discipline, the Financial Advisor, has been implemented into the team in close collaboration between the two institutions. The objective of adding this discipline is to raise the understanding for the change of paradigm to integrated and life cycle cost focused design and planning. Questions to be answered: - How do project teams considering a building's life cycle work differently with respect to concept development, issues discussed in comparison to teams considering the construction phase only? - Do they interact differently among the disciplines? - Do they use the collaboration technologies differently? - What is each disciplines understanding of a buildings life cycle, of risk management? - How does the team integrate the financial advisor? // The paper identifies the steps taken to develop the project assignment considering the real life situation in PPP projects. Thereby, the typical attributes of PPP projects such as life cycle considerations, risk allocation, performance oriented payments and partly output specifications have been implemented. While the team is developing the project their working process and products are observed. A comparison is done showing the differences between a project team considering the construction phase only. On the one hand the AEC Project prepares students for the highly specified requirements and the complexity of PPP projects. On the other hand they also learn project based how to collaborate on international, intercultural and interdisciplinary bases. With the ideas of PPP considering the entire life cycle of a project implemented into education there is a good chance that future projects can be conducted more successfully with a project team understanding how to work globally and to use collaboration technologies to work efficiently.
Hsia, Hao-Ching, Kan-Chung Huang, and Kuang-Yih Yeh. "INCOME ALLOCATION-BASED HOUSING DEMAND MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF TAINAN CITY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Housing demand is a part of household income allocation. Household income allocation can be separated into three parts including general consumption (composite goods, services and leisure), housing consumption and saving. Therefore, income allocation has a strong effect on housing demand. The official ìhome-based trip data in the Tainan metropolisî and ìhousehold income and expenditure data in Tainan cityî will be used to establish a model of householdsí income allocation. The model will be a log-linear model and be constructed under the hypothesis of utility maximization. Furthermore, household total income will be replaced by housing consumption which was calculated from a previous model to analyze household housing demand. It will be more precise than existing models.
Maussen, Stephan. "INDIVIDUAL COMMISSIONING OF DWELLINGS: THE PRIVATE HABITANT AS CONTRACTOR ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Property developers in the Netherlands are responsible for 83% of the housing production in the profit- and non-profit sector. At this moment the housing shortage is neutralized but there is still a quality mismatch between demand and supply on the Dutch housing market. In the traditional development process, the end user has little to no input while this need does exist among end users. A possibility to give people more say is individual or co-operative commissioning of dwellings. The Dutch cabinetís target is to allow 30% of housing production to be realized through self-build projects in the period 2005 to 2010. Individual or co-operative commissioning of dwellings can be defined more closely by ëCommissioning through which consumers or a of group consumers, organized as an entity without a profit motive, have the whole legal control, and bear the responsibility for the use of the ground, the design and construction building of the houseí. This research discusses individual commissioning of dwellings. A survey is held among 148 people to gain more insight into the specific factors and the degree of say the individual commissioner wants in the development and building of its own house. There are two groups of respondents. The first group is registered for available land (response rate 64%). The second group consists of individuals who have already built their own house (response rate 12%). The results of the survey confirm the factors that are mentioned in literature to give people more say. The respondents want say in all the factors (from a little bit to much), but the importance fluctuates. If developers want to solve the mismatch between demand and supply, they have to introduce say for the end users in their development process. This is called consumer-oriented construction. Besides this, the phenomenon of collective commissioning of dwellings is coming up in the Netherlands in which the commercial developer has no role at all anymore.
Traudes, Jeroen Pieter. "INTEGRATING INTERESTS IN REDEVELOPMENT PROCESSES: THE CASE OF DEN HAAG ZUIDWEST ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper focuses on the organization of urban redevelopment processes. Central issue in the paper is the way institutions influence the possibilities stakeholders have to defend their own interests in a way that they also take care of the interests of other stakeholders. The model will be used to describe the case of Den Haag Zuidwest; a neighborhood that was build in the 1950s in the southwest of the city of The Hague. This neighborhood is undergoing a large restructuring process at the moment. Urban redevelopment processes are a hot issue in the Netherlands. Society and the role of the government are changing. The government can not control the entire process anymore, the process has become too complicated, the financial efforts have become to large and besides, the government does not want to control the entire process anymore. This change has created a new situation for all parties involved and has raised many questions about interests, efforts and the way the process should be organized. This paper is part of a research project that wants to make a contribution to this discussion by focusing on the organization of an optimal arrangement for urban redevelopment processes, in which the interests of all parties involved are satisfied as optimal as possible. The theoretical background is found in the literature on transaction economics, governance and institutional theory. These theoretical elements are the building stones for the model that is used for describing the arrangement for urban redevelopment. In the arrangement, several goals must be satisfied. First of all, the (local) government has to focus on the public interest. This interest is looked after by the restruction of the urban environment. The goal is to improve the quality of the urban environment, but also the social environment. Improving quality is the central issue of each urban redevelopment process. For a high quality redevelopment cooperation of the private sector and the civil society is necessary. Each party will only cooperate if their particular interest is satisfied. The particular interest of the private sector, such as development companies and institutional investors is financial and the particular interest of the civil society is socially orientated. Nevertheless, the urban redevelopment process can only succeed if all the parties are willing not only to satisfy their own interests, but also to look after the common interest: the realization of quality. To realize this ambition, the local government has to steer the redevelopment process. The model gives a way to do so. The case will show us how this subject is dealt with in practice and will give us some indications to improve the model.
Rees, David. "INTEGRATING THREE RELATED MARKETS - SPACE, CAPITAL AND PHYSICAL ASSETS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Three distinct but related markets ñ the market for space, the capital market and the market for physical assets ñ contribute jointly to commercial property performance. Typically supply and demand in each of these markets is analyzed in isolation. A simple graphical analysis, similar in construction to the DiPasquale-Wheaton (DW) model that links real estate and real assets, is proposed that illustrates how the three markets inter-relate. Apparently contradictory trends, such as tightening yields at a time when vacancy rates are rising, or a boom in construction activity at a time when rents are falling, can be reconciled if the three markets are analyzed as an integrated whole. The analysis appeals to a production function for production, rather than short run supply constraints as in the DW model, to achieve equilibrium. The benefit of this approach is the new insights that are offered into the economic drivers of expansion and refurbishment for existing assets, which are a prominent feature of many property markets at present, as well as the key role of site-value ratios in determining equilibrium conditions and investment returns. With the increasing popularity of the Four Quadrant model for investment in real estate markets, a framework for describing how these markets are related has obvious expository applications to investment advisors and their customers. An integrated analysis is helpful at a time when commercial property in many countries is characterized by high levels of construction activity and refurbishment, falling yields and where the fundamental cost of capital, as measured by the long-term inflation-indexed bond yield, in several markets, such as the UK and Australia, has recently hit all-time lows. Firstly, the market for commercial space has been widely analyzed. The demand for commercial space is typically determined as a lagged response to economic variables such as employment, consumer spending or population growth. The supply of space can be regarded as fixed in the short run, though the lagged supply response to rental growth can display high elasticity. Secondly, and quite independently, the capital market determines the discount rate that the market will apply to the future rental stream of each asset. Typically the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is employed to determine the cost of capital which sets the required rate of return on investment. Thirdly, the market for physical assets (hereafter, ìassetsî) is determined by construction costs and land values. Land value reflects the quasi-monopoly element in location. Land value is the adjusting factor that brings the construction cost of the asset (including developerís ìprofitî) into line with the discounted cash flow from the expected future rental stream. An exogenous shift in demand for space, or, quite independently, fluctuations in the cost of capital can each lead to disequilibrium in the market for assets, stimulating or deterring construction activity. For example, a reduction in the required rate of return, as defined by CAPM, can lead to a rise in property values and stimulate construction even though the demand for space is simultaneously declining. Property values can rise, and construction may be stimulated, even though rents are falling. The accuracy of prediction of future trends in each of the three markets, as well as overall investment returns for commercial property, is likely to be enhanced from analysis, or at least explicit acknowledgement, of the inter-relationships between the markets for space, capital and physical assets.
Kaufmann, Philipp, and Alexander Redlein. "INTEGRATION OF STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT INTO FACILITY MANAGEMENT (FM) ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The question treated in this paper is how different interests and claims of individual groups can be integrated into facility management (FM). Enterprises increasingly find themselves confronted with demands and claims of todayís society, which requires a new understanding for the role of the enterprise. These requirements no more include primarily traditional market relations, but also fields of environmental, health and consumer protection, which continually gain importance for the enterpriseís future. Todayís environment is a highly complex system, in which the individual enterprise, as a subsystem of the entire economic system, is in constant mutual relationships with other subsystems. In order to cope with this network of relationships a broad view of the relevant surroundings of the enterprise and an understanding for social developments are necessary. These services are not sufficiently reflected in current FM-concepts. However, especially in real estate management, inconsistent situations of interest meet, which have to be balanced out: such a typical situation of conflict is not only carried out between constructor (i.e. designer and / or project manager) and user (i.e. tenant as well as owner of the finished real estate), but in many domains it exists beyond a lifetime. In this sense remarkable is the integration of neighbors or a positive contact with authorities ñ these challenges can be decisive for success or failure. The ìstakeholder managementî would provide a solution for that question: This concept was adapted for management science in the United States by Freeman in 1984 (German in 1991) and was further developed by Frederick / Davis / Post in 1988 ñ in the meantime the approach disposes of a considerable and consistent tradition. Stakeholders are all directly articulated and organized interests and environmental influences respectively taken to the enterprise as well as all those interests and groups who are affected (or can be affected) by the managementís activities. Stakeholders are not only those groups identified as such by the management of the enterprise, but, moreover, all those considering themselves to have a claim. The characteristics of the approach can thus be summarized as follows: 1. In a descriptive perspective it describes the nature of the activity as ìpublicly exposedî and as virtually-public (social) organization. Stakeholder management is geared to the relation of a recursive structure (duality and recursivity) of organization and society. The stakeholder approach is also suitable as a theory for the communication of the organization. Stakeholder management thus enables the ìreturn of societyî into the organization via integration of interests (claims ñ ìstakesî), which are affected by decisions of the management and which affect those. 2. In an instrumental perspective the approach concentrates on the management of interaction with the claiming-groups and on related organizational and institutional processes. In this connection it essentially focuses on the results of the enterprise. According to Freeman the approach is meant to extend and supplement traditional business managementconcepts, especially ìshareholderî and ìstockholderî concepts respectively. 3. In a normative perspective it emphasizes the necessity of including all (legitimate) claims (stakes) into management decisions. Thus, not only the interests of stockholders should be represented but all other rights (of legal and ethic nature) and interests as well as claims to management decisions should be considered. This is relevant both, from a meta-economical (individually formulated not user-oriented) ethical objective, and from a (management strategic) induced anticipation of social and cultural changes, which allows to actively anticipate such changes. Therefore, this proactive strategy offers a simultaneous improvement for all stakeholders. // In order to provide an answer for how to integrate the stakeholder-approach into FM, it is necessary to define relevant stakeholders for real estate enterprises and to determine an integrated communication model suitable to be put into practice. The conversion is explained and illustrated by means of concrete examples from practice.
Anghel, Ion. "INTERNATIONAL VALUATION STANDARDS - CHALLENGES FOR REAL ESTATE VALUATION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. At the beginning of the globalization process, in 1981 was found The International Asset Valuation Standard Committee (TIAVSC) with initial 20 countries membership and in 1984 first set of standards was launched. After 10 years, in 1994 first formal set of valuation standards was published under a new name International Valuation Standard Committee (IVSC). In 1998 International Accounting Standard Committee (IASC) make major revisions to International Accounting Standards (IAS) and in response IVSC undertakes International Valuation Standard (IVS) Project in January 2000. This three years project produced ìIVS 2003 Editionî and the last one is 2005 - Edition. The purpose is to create a robust and comprehensive set of valuation standards and: * To facilitate cross ñ border transaction; * To contribute to viability of the global market; * To promote transparency in financial reporting. // In accordance with IVSC all valuations have one of two foundations: Market Value (IVS 1) or Non ñ Market Value (IVS 2), like as value in use, salvage value, marriage value etc. and all valuations have to be communicated (IVS 3). For real estate valuations there are a couple of important IVS: * Valuation of real property - GN 1; * Valuation of Lease Interest - GN 2 ;* Depreciation Replacement Cost (DRC) ñ GN 8; * Discounted Cash Flow Analysis - GN 9. // Considering the purpose of Real Estate Valuation and the global market evolution is important also to note: * Valuation Application for Financial Reporting ñ IVA 1, very important for connection with IFRS/ IAS; * Valuation Application for Lending Purposes ñ IVA 2, important for connection with Basel Capital Accord (named Basel 2). // IVS is an amalgamation of various national standards where accepted or best practice in the valuation profession is identified and adopted. There is a challenge to implement this standards and Romanian experience in valuation education and practice is quite interesting. For an emerging market like Romanian market, valuation standards are important because education system and also valuation activity will consider this gravity center. In Romania 15 years ago the education and research in real estate valuation doesnít exist, especially because over 95% of real estate ownership belongs to the state. In present a major part of the real estate ownership is private (after a huge privatization process) and real estate market represent a challenge for researchers, valuers, professors etc.
ven, Vasif Attila Ö., and Dilek Pekdemir. "INVESTIGATING THE INTERACTION EFFECTS OF OFFICE RENT DETERMINANTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The application of factorial design on product quality management is becoming increasingly more popular [1, 2, 3]. The essence of the numerical technique lies with its efficiency on determining both the influence of the main effects and their combined effects on optimising the desired qualities of an end product. Considering office rent is a function of a large number of parameters (office rent determinants) it may be prudent to apply the factorial design technique treating office rent as an end product whose quality is measured by the highest yield of rent Using the method, it is then possible to define the most influential parameters (main effects) as well as the parameter interactions (combined effects) dictating the highest office rent [4, 5]. In a previous work by the same authors [6], it was attempted to improve hedonic office rent prediction models that represent the large number of office rent determinants. The main criticism directed to the hedonic approach is its inability to assess the interrelation between the price attributes. However, the interrelated influence of certain attributes on rental value can be of a great value [4, 7]. ì2n Factorial Designî approach is a useful statistical technique to investigate the influence of all possible combinations of the levels of the independent variables on the dependent variable. The aim of this paper is to determine the interrelated influence of certain attributes on rental value. Expanding the contract data used in the previous study [6], 2n two-level factorial design was conducted in order to examine the influence of interaction effects of the variables of the previous work on office rent in Istanbul.
Kempf, Simon. "INVESTIGATION OF INFLUENCING FACTORS DETERMINING OFFICE RENTS IN GERMAN MEPTROPOLITAN AREAS - AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Most office property valuations are based measuring the incoming cash flows of the property at hand. In other words, real estate valuers focus on the variable rent as the rental income accounts for the most part of all incoming cash flows. The level of rent, which the tenant is willing to pay, is determined by the physical/quality characteristics of the office building, its location and environment combined with the lease characteristics. Since the just mentioned characteristics are individual to each property as well as the intricacies of the contract between owner and occupier, valuation has always been difficult. Now, the task has become even more challenging as the recessionary real estate market conditions have changed the leasing practices for institutional grade office property. On the one hand, this market environment empowers tenants, seeking greater flexibility and reduced risk, to secure shorter leases or break options; on the other hand, tenants have the greater bargaining power leading to a multitude of different incentives such as long rent free periods or meeting the relocations costs by the owner. This paper aims at identifying the factors which determine office rents in German metropolitan areas. Furthermore, the paper attempts to identify whether office rent determinants are similar across all metropolitan areas and whether the different players in the real estate market perceive the determinants to be of equal importance in regard to their influence on office units. In comparison to the US and UK only limited research has been conducted in this field in Germany. In order to meet the above set objectives, data is collected via a mailed questionnaire survey. The content and design of the questionnaire was pre-tested. The survey will be sent to all alumni which completed the postgraduate programme of the ebs REAL ESTATE ACADEMY and will be completed in April/May 2006. As the papers analyses the market process and the way in which prices are set, the findings therefore do not only have an impact on valuers but also on property owners, developers, lawyers and financiers.
Armonat, Stefan, and Andreas Pfnuer. "INVESTMENT BASED REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIOMANAGEMENT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Although the application of capital market theory is questionable in real estate investment, institutional investors are advised continuously to perform asset allocation and real estate portfolio management with CAPM-based models. Due to a lack of data in many real estate markets and other reasons these models will not be applicable. Searching decision theory application for close buy applications of multiple choice portfolio decisions the authors found an analogy in project management. Multi project management problems are very similar to real estate portfolio decisions. The authors will adopt a project portfolio management approach to solve real estate portfolio management problems. Therefore they develop a financial model where every single real estate is treated like a project. Instead of historic price information from the real estate markets this model uses the specific investment based know how of the individual investor. Risk and return information of every single real estate and the whole portfolio will be methodically generated by a simulative risk analysis. The generated output characterizes the risk and return structure of the real estate portfolio. It is compatible to the commonly used asset allocation processes in the dominating security markets. The authors demonstrate how there model can be used as a back bone in the financial performance-controlling system of an institutional real estate investment company. Different applications in real estate investment decisions, risk management and investment controlling will be shown.
Businaro, Michele, Manuela Rainini, and Elena Zanlorenzi. "INVESTMENT PROSPECTIVE IN EU ACCESSION COUNTRIES: AN EXAMPLE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This Paper aims at illustrating the methodology applied for the individuation of key factors able to determine the urban development of a Metrolitan Area in an accession country. After the indentification of the metropolitan area, the first step is to point out the current situation depending on one side on macro economical situation that comprises demographic, revenue, expenditure, inflation, employment, and business, and on the other one on infrastructures and properties development. Based on this significant data the analysis will be implemented with information related to financial funds already approved by Local authorities and financially supported by EU institutions. The role of some local operators in the metropolitan market will be studied with the aim of pointing out the future development guidelines. The analysis will also concern the real estate and economic evolution of some metropolitan areas belonging to other countries which joined the EU in May 2004. Finally, the most reasonable developing scenario of the metropolitan area under analysis will be illustrated together with the most active zones in terms of new investments and the predictable macro economic effects.
Oertel, Holger, and Ludwig Schätzl. "INVESTMENTS INTO THE EXISTING HOUSING STOCK OF WEST AND EAST GERMANY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The objective of the research, we would like to present, is to increase the transparency of investments into the existing housing stock in Germany for housing policy and other market participants. Regarding the existing stock the information about investment processes, market relevance, investors, housing conditions, renovations and modernizations from official data are inadequate. Therefore the aim of our project (financed by Ministry of Transport and Building) is to investigate investments into the German housing stock by: * Analyzing secondary data from different institutions (official and private) and * Collecting primary data by interviews. // Both approaches insure innovative results for the transparency of investments into the existing housing stock. The project consists of two parts: an analysis of secondary data and the collection and interpretation of primary data from interviews. a) The secondary data analysis is based on several statistical recourses. It deals for example with the amount and development of investments into the existing housing stock. Changes of the condition of residential buildings are identified form the point of view of inhabitants in order to estimate investment needs. Further more state initiatives for energy saving like interest reduced loans are discussed. Finally their macroeconomic importance for real estate investments within the existing stock is quantified. Financial supports of investments from government (such as interest reduced loans) and demographic developments are basic parameters for the profitability of investments in existing real estate premises. The profitability of these investments will be described taking into account empirical yield developments. b) Due to the fact, that market information especially about investments in the private rental market is missing, the collection of primary data focuses on this segment. More than 600 interviews in six German cities are conducted. The cities were selected in a manner that different market situations (different size; prospering, stagnating and shrinking; east and west) are reflected. Investment items, strategies, investment spending plans and the importance of public supports for private investors are basic topics of the primary data analysis. // Fundamental market information to support housing policies and to increase the transparency for market participants such as real estate lenders and investors. Indicators for a periodical investment monitoring are discussed. Approaches for segmentations of investments into the housing stock. In Germany investments into the housing stock exceed the investments for new construction since 2000. This is the case for West and East Germany with slight temporary differences. Nevertheless the number of flats constructed within existing housing stock remains quite low. Investments into the housing stock contribute to qualitative changes of the housing stock such as modernizations and energy savings. Especially in East Germany significant increases of the quality of housing stock took place as the improvement of the condition of buildings in the rental market indicate. At the same time investment needs in several housing segments (West Germany: construction period 1950/60; East-Germany: self user segment) become obvious. Looking at KfW-programmes for housing stock investments (interest reduced loans) the importance of purposes like heating/energy/insulation and modernizations will be discussed. The profitability of investments in existing real estate premises has a direct impact on investment decisions. As it will be shown the average total return from stock investments in the residential market of Germany is moderate but less volatile than of other capital investment items. However negative capital growth rates are an investment hindrance.
M. Brown, Gordon. "IS THE CATEGORY IMPERATIVE? CATEGORIES AS INVISIBLE OBSTACLES TO EFFECTIVE REAL ESTATE RESEARCH. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Many real estate investment practices ñ and much real estate analysis and research ñ have their starting point in categories: residential, commercial, office, industrial; retail and the non-category category, mixed use. Categories are social conventions with scarce ontological status. Thus, despite the development of increasingly sophisticated analytic tools, the epistemological foundations of large parts of real estate thought remain in a pre-scientific state. The result is a host of problems involving what appears to be rapid obsolescence in persistent office vacancies, failed retail centers and other problems usually attributed to market conditions and typically seen from the bottom up as part of business as usual in real estate. This paper proposes that the appropriate starting point for real estate thought be the configurational model rather than the category. It begins with examples of how categories are casually used in real estate research, reviews the problem of asset mispricing as an example of over-reliance on categories and examines the category issue from two points of view ñ folk thinking (everyday as opposed to scientific discourse) and evolutionary processes (things change and get to the edge of and fall out of the category while the names of them donít). It follows with a discussion of models-of and models-for as a basis for the modeling process and concludes with an application.
Simon, Arnaud. "IS THERE A FUNCTIONAL RELATION BETWEEN THE REPEAT-SALES INDEX AND THE MEDIAN INDEX? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Based on the repeat-sales theory, this article tries to give an answer to the following question: Is it possible to find a functional relation between a flow index, whose values at time t are calculated only with the transactions observed at this moment (like the median or the hedonic index) and the Case-Shiller index? The main result of this paper establishes that the monoperiodic growth rates of the repeat-sales index can be calculated directly from the mean rates realised by the investors, applying them an informational matrix. And as these mean rates can be expressed, in a simplified context, as a function of the flow index values, the relation between these two indexes exists. Simultaneously this theoretical issue generates, as a by-product, a data analysis methodology more thorough than the single value of the index. Indeed, the computation of the repeat-sales index can be realised decomposing it in elementary blocks which can be easily interpreted and handled. It allows a better exploitation of the information embedded in a dataset, gathering in a unified framework several concepts (instantaneous and mean rates, levels of liquidity for the buy-side and for the sell-side, length of the holding periods, quantity of information provided by a trade Ö) whose evolutions can be observed jointly. In order to develop the practical consequences of theses formulas a benchmark sample is presented and its properties are analysed in a detailed manner. The survival rates are modelized using an exponential distribution. It provides an interesting and simple reference which can be used when analysing a real and more complex dataset. Its use is illustrated with a synthetic sample associated to a simple economic scenario.
Lorenz, David, and Thomas Lützkendorf. "IS THERE A MARKET OF SUSTAINABLE PROPERTY INVESTMENT PRODUCTS? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Efforts in contributing to sustainable development have resulted in various activities and initial successes within both the construction and property sector as well as within the finance, banking and insurance industries. The paper provides a brief analysis and classification of these activities (amongst others, e.g. UNEP FI, UNEP SBC, SRI, GRI) and shows that sustainable planning, construction and management of property assets is not yet sufficiently linked to the issues of property financing, insurance, valuation and to the development of new indirect property investment products. Starting from a brief description of Socially Responsible Investment approaches the authors discuss and estimate the potential market for sustainable property investment products and describe in how far the current niche activity of sustainable property investing could move into the mainstream. As a precondition for moving sustainable property investment into the mainstream the authors describe characteristics, attributes and requirements of sustainable buildings. In addition, the current state of discussion within international and European standardisation circles (at ISO and CEN) regarding the issue of ëSustainability of Construction Worksí is portrayed. The paper concludes with an identification and classification of possible sustainable property investment strategies and of new indirect property investment products.
Li, Xin, and Li Ling-Hin. "LAND READJUSTMENT - THE PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP EXPERIMENT IN URBAN RENEWAL IN CHINA." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006.

Urban problems are becoming too serious to leave solely in the hand of government authorities but have necessitated drawing the wisdom and resources of all parties involved in contemporary urban predicaments. Under the state-ownership system of urban land in China, there are no forces to change the conventional model of urban renewal initiated only by the public sector, in which the individual property owners are almost out of the picture of decision making and renewal process. However, in some rare occasions, the developer may adopt a public-private partnership structure in the process by incorporating the individual property owners into their entity. This, in the context of rural land renewal in the urban fringe area where the property ownership structure is mixed up, has been known as the Land Readjustment model. The paper is to review the historical evolution of the Land Readjustment concept, explore the rationale behind which public authority chooses to adopt this model in the process of urban renewal and to highlight the generic promise and drawbacks of this publicñprivate partnership. The two cases in Shenzhen, the special economy zone in south China, are introduced to shed some lights on how this public-private partnership works in reality.

Adam, Alexander. "LENDING VALUE PROJECTION FOR HOUSING PROPERTIES USING LOAN APPLICATION DATA ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. German mortgage banks face an increasingly regulatory framework for real estate valuations. The introduction of this framework had two effects. It has made the approval for low value properties such as apartments more time consuming and hence costly, but at the same time it allows to build a more consistent and improved data base for analysis. Lending institutions will be looking to find solutions to decrease the additional costs these regulations have caused. A possibility could be the development of a model that is projecting lending values based on a set of valuation parameters, which are supplied for a loan application. In this paper a sample set of valuation parameters of apartments for a regional sub-market is used to build the model. The dataset will be employed in a range of statistical tests, which will include tests of publicly available data in order to identify outliers. The timeframe of the dataset was chosen to exclude any behavioural shifts in the market. Such an approach to valuation obviously only lends itself to a relatively homogenous real estate class such as apartments. However, if a relationship between the valuation parameters and the lending value can be established this result will enable lending institutions to be more cost efficient in their approval process for this asset class.
Bostwick, Jesse, and Nick Tyrrell. "LEVERAGE IN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS - AN OPTIMISATION APPROACH ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Real estate investments are frequently leveraged. Leverage is an important tool for any real estate investor whose target return exceeds the expected return on core, unleveraged assets since it increases potential returns -- although at the cost of increased risk. It therefore competes with other means of raising risk and returns -- in particular, buying riskier real estate assets -- as a method of improving the performance of a portfolio. This paper looks at the risk/return trade-off to leverage from a theoretical perspective, and the risk/return trade-off from in real estate asset space from an empirical perspective. A theoretical model of equilibrium leverage is developed. In this model leverage is preferred so long as the marginal increase in expected return per unit of extra risk from leverage exceeds that obtained from buying riskier assets. Since there are diminishing returns to leverage -- primarily because financing costs rise as borrowing levels rise relative to value -- this trade-off will become less attractive as leverage rises leading to an optimal level of leverage. If all investors face the same opportunity set, then one implication of the model is that all investors should leverage core investments up to either the optimal point or their target return, whichever is lower. This is clearly out of line with observed practice. However, it is difficult to calibrate the model accurately since, while it is relatively straightforward to calculate the trade-off between risk and return to leverage, little is known about the trade-off between risks and returns in real estate space.
Brounen, Dirk, and Piet Eichholtz. "LIQUIDITY OF PROPERTY SHARES: A SECOND LOOK ACROSS COUNTRIES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper investigates liquidity differences between property shares and common stocks in Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States over the period 1990-2004. This paper is first to analyze liquidity by the use of trading velocity, a ratio which measures the actual traded portion of the shares outstanding. Controlling for share price, market capitalization, analyst coverage, return volatility, free float and ownership level, we document significant and periodic differences in liquidity between the two asset types across all markets, as measured by trading velocity. Although listed real estate shares have evolved from small-cap funds into large mid-cap funds over the last fifteen years, when measured by market capitalization, their trading volumes still look more alike small-cap firms. Furthermore, across markets and time, a stockís share price is found to be significantly inversely related to liquidity, whereas its market capitalization and analyst coverage exhibit positive relationships with liquidity.
Keeris, Willem G.. "LIVE WITH PROPERTY SPECIFIC AND MANAGERIAL RISKS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. For real estate investments it is most common to adhere to the general theory of risk categories and risk reduction as used in the financial market. A distinction is made between the systematic or market risk and non-systematic risk; namely the property specific risk. Through diversification, by increasing the number of properties in the portfolio the specific risk can be decreased. Theoretically, this should ultimately decrease the specific risk to nil. For real state investments this is not a realistic story. The sketched picture of reducing the total risk to solely market risk is simply not possible. It is improper to set a false image in the investment market about such an important question. In this paper an alternative approach is provided whereby three risk components are distinguished, both the previous mentioned risks, and that of the involved management. The case is made that real estate investment are so specific that it needs an alternative approach and not one that is based on unrealistic theoretical rules from other asset classes.
Janssen, Ingrid I., Jos J. A. M. Smeets, and Rob Soeterboek. "LOCAL CENTRES AS A CHALLENGE: AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SMALL-SCALE SHOPPING CENTRES. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The deterioration of small-scale shopping centres is an increasing problem in Dutch neighbourhoods. Because of the consumersí increased mobility and the decreased potential amount of spending within the catchments area, these small-scale shopping facilities are hardly exploitable. A clear vision on the future development is currently missing. Traditional methods are based on the analysis of site qualities, like accessibility, and of financial-economic aspects like trade, floor-productivity and costs. These methods focus on the possibility to continue the current retail function. Therefore they turn out to be practical when looking for interventions within the (physical) functioning of a shopping centre, to strengthen its performance. Especially when checking the financial economic aspects, most of the small centres would fail the test. Subsequently none of the methods offer a solution for the vacant or deteriorated real estate. Because of the value of the real estate and the function for the neighbourhood, this is a frustrating outcome while it would be too extreme to dismantle each centre that functions badly. In this paper we introduce a methodology by which alternative directions of development can be worked out, by making a site- as well as a situation-analysis. This alternative approach takes the absolute and the relative location into account and gives insight in the potential of the location and the real estate. The outcome is a set of solutions for redevelopment and brings along a whole package of facilities and services, both profit as non-profit, site- or situation oriented. This approach increases the range of solutions and decreases the chances for disinvestments.
Zaleczna, Magdalena, and Konrad Zelazowski. "LOCAL HOUSING MARKETS IN POLAND AND THEIR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MARKET RULES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. During socialist period components of housing economy, i.e. the production of housing, its distribution and maintenance, depended on a number of political factors and were funded by the national budget. Concerning the production aspect, special solutions facilitating financing of residential building made it possible for co-operative housing to grow, which was accompanied by a regression in other forms of building. Also the distribution of the produced flats and the maintenance of the existing stock was largely controlled by the government. In the beginning of 90s the level of new housing supply was the reminiscence of the socialist period. Than it changed due to the very deep economic reforms creating new conditions for housing supply and demand. On the base of housing monitoring conducted in selected Polish cities authors try to investigate the regional differences between local housings markets in Poland. The research is focused on changes in supply and demand sides, aimed at presenting some adjustments of the local housing markets to the market rules considering the economic and social conditions.
Sebastian, Steffen. "MACROECONOMIC RISK EXPOSURE OF HOUSING ACCOUNTING FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL CORRELATIONS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Using data on apartment sales in Paris area, we investigate the extent of temporal and spatial correlation in housing prices. We employ a novel estimation procedure that allows us to disentangle these effects. We show that ignoring the heteroscedasticity along either of the two dimensions can lead to incorrect parameter estimates. We furthermore examine the effect of changes in the macroeconomic environment on the real estate market. Therefore we include four macroeconomic parameters in our hedonic model, and find that both the expected and the unexpected components of GDP, inflation, long term yield and a yield spread have significant impacts on real estate prices. Full paper available at www.real-estate-finance.de.
Demou, Asimina, and Panagiotis Zentelis. "MANAGEMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND EXPLOITATION OF THE PUBLIC REAL ESTATE PROPERTY OF GREECE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The paper begins by making a reference to the Hellinic Public Real Estate Corporation (HPREC) established in 1979 and its main targets, which are: * the listing, mapping and cadastral survey of all the public real estate assets. * the management and exploitation of the properties through private sector incentives. * the development of housing projects catered to the public sector needs. // The HPREC possesses a significant portfolio of properties that renders it potentially a major player in the field of real estate. To this end, this paper suggests various measures that will enable HPREC to meet its full potential. In continuing, a short descriptive reference is made to the LIS which includes all the properties, a system which has already been developed and is already functioning. The paper makes specific propositions regarding the upgrading of the LIS for the purpose of simplifying and making more efficient the management of the properties included in the system. In addition, a geographical representation of the properties is presented that includes information regarding their permitted use, their dimensions and their value. Furthermore, the paper discusses the regulation and the possibilities regarding the exploitation of the public properties in Greece. More specifically, a reference is made to: * the regulation that must be applied; * the alternative ways of exploitation of the properties; * the institutions through which this exploitation and development may occur. // Finally, the paper suggests priorities with respect to which properties should be slated fist for exploitation.
Baum, Andrew E., and Peter Struempell. "MANAGING SPECIFIC RISK IN PROPERTY PORTFOLIOS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Specific risk in property, whether measured as standard deviation or as a tracking error against a benchmark, is a key problem for international investors. It arises through large average property capital values (lot sizes), through an uneven distribution of these values and through the inability of investors to match competitorsí portfolios, as each property is unique. Property funds offer a way to limit this problem, as all three issues are minimised by investing indirectly by using diversified funds. But this paper shows that specific risk varies significantly between sectors and countries, and unlisted funds may be more useful in some sectors and countries than others. This is not simply a function of lot size but also of ëdiversification powerí within sectors, defined as the efficiency of specific risk reduction through adding properties. Data from the UK is used to illustrate this issue and to show where the use of funds would be most useful. It also examines whether the funds currently available are large enough to offer the necessary risk reduction. In the paper we use market data to examine the extent of the problem of specific risk for property investors, and we couple this issue with the proposition that the growth in the unlisted fund market is explainable by reference to this problem. The propositions being tested are as follows: * an allocation to direct property will carry high levels of specific risk; this risk varies significantly between the segments, and it is harder to achieve efficient diversification in some segments; * this problem coupled with the use of benchmark-driven portfolio structures makes it exceedingly hard to control diversification by sector and well as within sectors without huge sums to invest; * there is a strong case for using indirect property vehicles to combat specific risk at the sector level. // To test these propositions, we examined how much cash would have been be needed over a specific period to limit the tracking error of a group of properties within one segment to a given risk target. We then compared the results across segments; and we draw some conclusions about those segments where diversification is relatively easy and those where it is relatively hard. We use a unique dataset describing UK property vehicles in combination with new IPD data measuring risk at the individual property level and together this data creates an original contribution in an under-researched area.
Holzapfel, Anton, Julia Jedelhauser, and Philipp Kaufmann. "MARKET REPORT FOR OFFICES IN THE WESTERN AUSTRIAN FEDERAL STATES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The data situation concerning the office market in the big cities of Austria (except Vienna) is non-satisfying for owners, estate agents and investors. There is no transparency in the office sector refering the cities Linz, Salzburg and Innsbruck. No data or official information exists on office space or new construction volume, supply, demand, yield or other key figures. The FHS Kufstein - the Real Estate and Facility Management Department and the OVI (÷sterreichischer Verband der Immobilientreuh‰nder, www.ovi.at) - developed a revolving market report concerning the office market. The report contains the existing space, the new construction volume, the volume of new tenancy but also vacancy rates and rent levels. As a second aim trends and opportunities on the western office market are analyzed. Key question is the total office space for the analysed cities. Different methods (eg space per clerks and expert interviews) are used to gain this relevant information. Similar methods creates all other figures. On the ERES-conference in Weimar the authors present the result of the study and we are looking forward to an interessting discussion.
D'Arcy, Éamonn. "MARKETS AND MARKET STRUCTURES IN REAL ESTATE: EXPANDING THE RESEARCH PARADIGM ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. While much research effort has been spent on pricing issues in real estate comparatively little consideration has been given to the analysis of how real estate markets function and market structures evolve. This is surprising considering that the market and its structure inevitably underpins and impacts on pricing. Market structures condition behaviour, determine incentives and ultimately influence performance. This paper attempts to address some of these issues through a critical analysis of the respective merits and applicability of traditional and institutional approaches to the analysis of markets and market structures in real estate. The objectives are also to clarify the deficiencies in existing approaches and to assess their potential to contribute to core real estate knowledge. The insights gained from this analysis are used to interpret contemporary possess of change in the real estate market as a means of assessing the practical relevance of a ëmarketí focused approach to research and analysis. The paper concludes with an assessment of the issues identified for the future direction of real estate research in this area.
Macfarlane, John. "MASS APPRIASAL: POLITICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Mass Valuation/Appraisal is used in many jurisdictions as the statutory basis for assessing land or capital values for the determination of local authority rates and other land and property taxes which may apply. The valuation methods vary substantially between jurisdictions although the underlying aim ñ to estimate values as at a specified date as consistently (but not necessarily as accurately) as possible ñ is reasonably universal. Given the wider interest is questions of valuation accuracy, what levels of consistency and accuracy should be expected from these mass valuation processes? Are existing international guidelines adequate? This paper will examine some quality assurance aspects of the mass valuation process and their political implications. It will particularly focus on mass appraisal in New South Wales, Australia where there has recently been an investigation by the NSW State Ombudsman into the Mass Valuation Process (October, 2005). Land taxes are not liked and their financial impact is not necessarily fair and equitable. The political reality is that issues and concerns over land taxes are, in part, transformed into criticism of the valuations on which they are based. Many of the issues associated with mass appraisal in a statutory context are universal - they apply in virtually all jusisdiictions. Recent experience from Australia will be of interest and may be of assistance in addressing these problems elsewhere.
Feldmann, Philipp, Holger Mrosek, and Elmar Schütz. "MIXED-USED QUARTER DEVELOPMENTS: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO STRATEGIC URBAN PLANNING ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Due to the globalisation of markets and the continuing structural change from an industrial to a service and knowledge economy, not only in Germany large industrial enterprises are forced to move into more competitive regions with lower production costs in order to obtain competitive ability. A consequence of this development is the fact that formerly industrially used areas and associated infrastructures are no longer needed. The similar consequence results from the long-term reduction of the locations of the German Federal Armed Forces. These abandoned areas increasingly move into the focus of private project developers that see a high potential for value added. However, in contrast to the development of single properties the developer has the chance and the challenge to develop a whole new area. This often incorporates a variety of questions and risks, which often go beyond the questions of economics or urban planning. The challenge is twofold: On the one hand from an urban planning perspective to create an in itself functioning and appealing location that fulfils the needs and requirements of the people living, working and staying there. On the other hand from an economic perspective the development must be sustainably competitive and feasible. In order to handle the challenges, an interdisciplinary understanding is absolutely necessary. The underlying question of this paper is therefore how such combined requirements can be fulfilled in the long run. The goal is therefore to generate an approach that captures the outlined risks and reduces the high scale of complexity by a combination of urban planning and concepts of strategic management. The paper is part of a research cooperation between the Endowed Chair of Real Estate Development of Prof. Dr. Stephan Bone-Winkel at the European Business School (ebs), International University in Oestrich-Winkel, Germany and Vivico Real Estate GmbH, one of the largest project developers on the German real estate market.
Matysiak, George, and Fotis Mouzakis. "MODELLING CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS:A PANEL DATA APPROACH ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The purpose of this study is to examine the relative performance of European commercial real estate markets, with an emphasis on the three largest evolving markets for the recent new entrants to the EU in May 2005 namely, Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Employing a panel data oriented approach, we examine the profiles of yield and rental movements with reference to the more mature markets in western Europe. The real estate data is based on constructed composite measure of yields and rental growth, which extract information from country data obtained from several sources. Country specific financial and macroeconomic time-series data likely to influence yields and rental growth are employed in the analysis. A number of hypotheses about the relative performance of the CEE countries relative to their western counterparts are investigated, including tests for heterogeneity in market structures across countries and over time.
Halleux, Jean-Marie. "MODELLING THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKETS: APPLICATION TO BELGIUM AND ITS NEW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The proposed paper is about the relationship between new urban developments and the residential land markets in Belgium. In this country, residential land market processes are strongly influenced by the predominance of self-provided constructions, with the fact that a building site is often exchanged twice before being constructed: a first transaction is happening between an initial owner and a land developer (lotisseur-amÈnageur) wishing to service the site; a second transaction is afterwards happening between the land developer and a household wishing to acquire a plot of land in order to built its own residence. The analysis is about the ìsecondaryî markets, where households represent the demand component. The key objective has been to analyse how those markets are spatially structured. Our empirical analysis is based on the theoretical idea that two key factors explain the spatial structure of residential land market: * data availability on prices (relationship with price comparison made by market participants when they prepare negotiations); * substitutability (relationship with the territory prospected by the demand wishing to acquire a plot of land). // The research is based on spatial econometrics, with the use of auto-regressive multiple regressions (estimator of the maximum likelihood). Models that distinguish and compare Flanders and Wallonia have been produced in order to statistically explain the communal mean land prices (n= 242 in Flanders; n = 259 in Wallonia). Three explanation components have been considered. The first is related to demand; the mean income of the population is here a key variable. Concerning the supply side ñ the second explanation component ñ a key data is the quantity of land available for new houses in planning documents. Demand and supply data have been tested at two spatial levels ñ municipality and job catchment area ñ in order to apprehend the substitutability factor. The information is the third explanation component. It is related with the factor of data availability and has been treated through a spatial autoregressive variable. For each commune, the value of this variable is equal to the mean of the dependent variable observed in the neighbouring municipalities. Property researches are unfortunately weakly developed in Belgium and our work represent a first attempt to model land prices in this country. Although some academic publications are dealing with the issue, the spatial structure of market is not yet a well developed property research theme. Moreover, our analysis has been elaborated for the whole of Belgium while the literature on this subject is based on hedonic models elaborated for smaller areas. Our statistical treatments ñ with the fact that the autoregressive variable has a very high explanation power ñ reveal that the comparison mechanism is a key explanation of land prices (relation with the spatial structure factor of data availability on prices). In other words, the market value of a plot of land is, ceteris paribus, very strongly dependent of the market value recorded in the neighbouring plots. From a methodological point of view, this result demonstrates that, in the analysed context, an autoregressive equation form is necessary to achieve robust statistical results. Concerning the substitutability (second spatial structure factor taken into account), the analysis has put into the light that the territory prospected by the demand is highly dependent on the quantity of land available for new constructions. Where the planning authorities have ìgenerouslyî dedicated important superficies for new constructions, the scale of the municipality is appropriate to describe the spatial behaviour of the households wishing to acquire a plot of land. On the contrary, where land available for new construction is scarce, the households are obliged to prospect larger territories. In this case, the scale of the job catchment area is then more appropriate that the municipal scale to consider market mechanisms.
Kochetkov, Yuri. "MOSCOW AND ST.PETERSBURG RESIDENTIAL MARKETS IN LAST YEARS: THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Residential construction boom, based mainly on escalation in prices and high demand, touches most Russia cities on. In absolute values (constructed sq.m.) there are two leaders: Moscow and St. Petersburg. These capitals saved their soviet-time industrialized house-building that allowed to produce millions square meters of new houses per year. It is very interesting that the market processes (both for primary market and secondary one) were enough similar for these cities. But there exist some another differences (especially in the municipal building construction strategy), and this circumstance leads to interesting consequences for property markets. 2004 year became the year of trials for residential development companies, at that year Moscow and St. Petersburg (and many other Russian cities ) have been shake by first (after 2000 year) decrease in demand. But as compare to Moscow, St. Petersburg demonstrated significant fall in offer prices. What as the source of divergence? The answer is not simple. The paper represents results of comparative analysis of the residential property market situation in 2000-2005 years. The focus of the research is how residential construction and demographic situation influences on the market. We employ the extensive databases of the offer prices (primary and secondary markets) plus some other information about markets, housing supply etc. and found that building construction has now significant role for current housing markets (as compare to situation in 90th years). It seems that the divergence in 2004-2005 between Moscow and St. Petersburg became the result of the difference in municipal strategies in new house construction.
Becker, Sascha, and Nora Oettgen. "NAMING RIGHTS AND MARKETING OF SPORT ARENAS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The marketing of naming rights on sport arenas has been a long established business in the United States, but was widely unknown in Europe in general and in Germany in particular. Within the last years though, especially against the background of the Soccer World Championship 2006 in Germany, naming rights of sport arenas, especially soccer arenas, are sold. By doing that, the clubs are able to finance those arenas. Since re-naming the ëVolkspark-Stadioní in Hamburg into ëAOL-Arenaí in 2001 and the fact that the newly build Munich arena will hold the name of Germanyís number one insurance company ëAllianceí for the next 15 years, a boom which has by now reached almost all German top-arenas, was created. Against this background, this paper will discuss the underlying conditions for this ongoing trend. Further on, it will be shown, if and to what extend this kind of sponsoring engagement can be seen as a useful extension to the classical communication mix for companies.
Koch, Christian, and Jesper Ole Jensen. "NATIONAL ESTABLISHING PROCESSES OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS- TOWARDS AN UNDERSTANDING OF EMERGENT DYNAMICS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the later years an increasing number of European countries have engaged in PPP as a means to develop the built environment element of the public services. These include countries like Germany, Portugal, Ireland, Holland, France, and Denmark to mention some (DLA 2005, RICS 2005). There a few countries, Italy and UK have more than ten years experience, most countries have relatively recently established law, central support units and other elements of meta-governance (Van Heffen et al 2000). Not all countries automatically experience a rapid growth in PPP- projects. It is for example characteristic that Holland and Denmark experience a current ìhesitativeî period. Most PPP research focus on establishing single projects and/or study the public sector reform as a singular event (Rosenau 2000, Akintoye et al 2003 and others). In contrast, and adopting a comparative perspective, the paper sets out to investigate processes of establishing PPP on a national arena. It is suggested to view this as a three phase process of establishing, stabilising and differentiation. Also the process can be conceptualises as the development of a characteristic network of players, changing over time. From the longer experiences of Italy and UK it can be shown that reform of the meta-governance is a continual process rather that a ìonce and for allî establishing of new stable regulatory conditions for private enterprises. Moreover it appear that multinational companies downplay the importance of the national arena. Some countries does appear to have special local conditions which is discussed in the paper.
Keeris, Willem G., and Philip W. Koppels. "OCCUPIERSí INCENTIVES AND THE REAL ESTATE CYCLE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The rent levels reported by real estate agents remain relative stable, despite the fact that the vacancy rate increases. Landlords seem unwilling to adjust the long-term rental rate. Instead of decreasing the asking-rent they attempt to attract tenants by providing additional financial benefits which do not influence the long-term rental rate. Incentives such as rent-free periods, free hard fit-outs, re-location cost compensation, and furnishing contributions offer this prospect. It seems logical that the extent of offered incentives is related to the phase of the real estate cycle. Throughout the declining phase, when the vacancy rate is high, incentives are common and their extent can be substantial. In a recent study an average incentives level of twenty percent is reported for the Amsterdam region. In addition, the extent of offered incentives also depends on the attractiveness of the specific office property or unit in question. The rent level reported by real estate agents is not corrected for offered incentives. Therefore, the figure provides a distorted view of the current market dynamics. Consequently, it complicates the comparison of the quality to price ratio of different properties. This paper aims at determining an empirical relation between the vacancy rate and the extent of offered incentives. For an accurate analysis spatial and qualitative segmentation is deemed necessary. Data from ROZ-IPD Netherlands Property Index is employed to establish if the extent of incentives correlated with the reported vacancy rate. The ultimate goal is to construct an incentive correction factor, which depends on the vacancy rate, for reported rent levels. This facilitates an enhanced comparison of the office property quality to price ratio.
Becker, Sascha, Philipp Feldman, and Friederike Sperl. "OFFICE BRANDING - TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED BRAND BUILDING STRATEGY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The situation on several German real estate markets today is characterised by high vacancy rates, more intensive competition and increasingly exchangeable offers. Especially on office space markets the situation is still tense and market participants anticipate the high vacancy rates to remain a long-term problem due to the stagnating job market. Against this background it is today more important than ever for project developers to excite public attention, to identify target group oriented positioning characteristics of the object and to create an individual customerís benefit. In this context real estate branding gains in importance as can attach a unique and customer oriented image and brand to the object. Whether a customer buys a consumer good or buys/leases office space, it is always a bundle of attributes that come along with a certain product. As consumer goods industry generally focuses on emotional attributes when marketing their products, real estate industry solely concentrates on hard facts. This hidden potential has not yet been tapped successfully but bares several opportunities for real estate developers and investors. The aim of this paper is to make a contribution to the field of real estate marketing by providing a guideline for the strategic creation of real estate brands. Therefore, the functions of a brand from a userís perspective, postulated by the classical marketing theory, are being defined and the transferability of these functions to real estate is being analysed. Taking the previously elaborated findings into account, we determine the circumstances under which a corporate or real estate brand should be created from a developerís perspective. Finally, we present a strategic approach towards building a real estate brand and its retention in the corporation.
Becker, Sascha, and Bettina Staniek. "OFFICE ENVIRONMENTS FOR THE FUTURE - THE IMPORTANCE OF INTERDISCIPLINARY CONCEPTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. "In order to develop sustainable office environments that meet future requirements, the ongoing changes in the work environment have to be understood. But these changes are multifaceted, affect different disciplines and manifest themselves on different levels. Therefore, they should be analysed in interdisciplinary teams. Modern organizations are characterized by flexible, decentralized network structures. These structures have to be supported by adequate architectural concepts that improve the organizations productivity. However, it is not only the productivity-aspect that companies are facing, but the quality of the working environment in general which only is likely to increase, if architectural, economical and sociological aspects are taken into account. The paper outlines the research focus and research questions of a new founded interdisciplinary research team named ""Zentrum Arbeitswelten"" consisting of architects, sociologists and developers. It is the aim of the ìZentrum Arbeitsweltenî to contribute to the development of humane and productive office environments."
Deutsch, Edwin. "ON GROWING OR DECLINING POLARISATION IN HOUSING TENURES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. "In recent years there appeared numerous articles about best suited methods to estimate income distributions and polarisation tendencies. The Austrian census data 1989-1999 corroborate findings that summary statistics like dispersion or Gini remain rather stable over time when evaluated for the economy as a whole. However across space and time there is considerable movement of incomes and skills in locational differentiation of housing tenures. To make the argument precise, this contribution compares Kullback-Leibler distances with parametric distribution estimates. The ""middle class"" generates a rather flat income pattern around median and mean; a newly developed type 3 extremal value distribution (a log-Weibull type) indeed outperfoms the classic lognormal distribution in subpopulations where that middle class is relatively dominant. This is reflected in the shape of the distributions which hence permit better insights than summary statistics. It is also shown that these movements create a tendency towards polarisation in certain parts of the population but also that pattern is not uniform. The paper argues therefore that chasing one single and ""best"" type of income distribution is misleading because the shape depends on the social composition. A thorough analysis of the movements appears necessary when drawing conclusions about housing policies and about future public support for housing needs."
Sebastian, Steffen, and Marcel Tyrell. "OPEN END REAL ESTATE FUNDS - DIAMONDS OR DANGER? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Open end funds for private investors offer in general daily redemption of outstanding shares. A high liquidity of shares is in sharp contrast to the illiquidity of real estate. Therefore, the typical construction for real estate funds which are designed for a broader public is closed ended. Attempts to establish open end funds have regularly let to crises comparable to bank runs, e.g. the RODAMCO case in the Netherlands, or the actual crisis of German open end funds. Liquidity transformation as a typical function of banks also bears inevitably to the danger of bank runs. Therefore we offer a framework based on the recent works in bank theory of Diamond/Dybvig 1983, Allen/Gale1998, and Diamond/Rajan 2001 which examine whether open end funds can represent a stable investment design for real estate. Furthermore we show that the open end construction delivers a monitoring function with respect to the fund managers. Full paper available at www.real-estate-finance.de.
Bone-Winkel, Stephan, and Tobias Pfeffer. "OPPORTUNISTIC REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT - WHAT CAN PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT DO? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. As interest in real estate continues to increase worldwide, trends bode well for real estate investments. While investors recognize the importance of real estate as an asset class, they underestimate the diversity of investment opportunities available. Having started with direct property investment and mortgages, investors then expanded into mutual funds and public securities. Recently, institutional investors are attracted by value-added and opportunistic investments in real estate. The large amount of investment capital hold by real estate private equity and opportunity funds spurs this trend towards opportunistic real estate investment. Nonetheless, there are different ways to realize the higher potential. Value-added investment can arise from the interaction between capital markets cycles and real estate property and long-term forces like demographics, changes in the regulatory framework as well as in the needs and preferences of tenants. Most likely, opportunistic investments are linked to improvements of the financial, physical or operational characteristics of real estate or a combination of the three. Due to the fact that the real estate development market is highly entrepreneurial and fragmented, investors` access to this kind of opportunities and their ability to manage risk is still limited. Although various developers have recognized the value of relationships with capital sources, institutional investors are often unaware of the barriers and promoters of opportunistic investments in property developments and redevelopments. Therefore, the paper analyzes the prospects and limitations of value-added investments during the development and redevelopment stage of a real estate asset¥s life cycle. In this way, the paper aims to contribute to a better understanding of wealth-creating opportunities in real estate investment through physical value added.
Baroni, Michel, Fabrice Barthélémy, and Mahdi Mokrane. "OPTIMAL HOLDING PERIOD IN REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In this paper, simulated cash flows are used to value real estate assets. We generate the cash flows by Monte Carlo simulations both for the current and the terminal cash flows. Important simulation inputs, such as the physical real estate price volatility estimator, are provided by results on real estate indices for Paris derived in an article by Baroni, BarthÈlÈmy and Mokrane (2005). Based on a residential real estate portfolio example, valuation by simulated cash flows lets appear an optimal holding period. The paper discusses under which circumstances this optimum exists and shows empirically its sensitivity to various parameters that are present in the simulations.
Becker, Martin, and Karl Werner Schulte. "OUTSOURCING GERMAN CORPORATE REAL ESTATE VIA REITS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The introduction of REITs is expected to have a large impact on the market for indirect real estate investment in Germany. Whereas non-listed investment vehicles traditionally have been very successful in attracting capital from German private and institutional investors, the listed sector has not developed so far. In fact, the market capitalisation of German listed property companies amounts to only 0.49% of total commercial real estate, representing a market capitalisation of app. 8 billion Euros. An established listed real estate segment, triggered by the introduction of REITs, offers an alternative exit channel for German corporates that traditionally hold a large proportion of their real estate on balance sheet. Recently, the awareness of German corporates for efficient management of their real estate assets has increased. The tax incentives aligned with the introduction of REITs may lead to a large proportion of new IPOs to be drawn from corporate real estate spin-offs. However, alternative exit channels, e.g. the sale of property portfolios to financial investors or Credit Tenant Lease securitisation, have to be considered when estimating the REIT IPO volume. Based on a survey, this paper therefore analyses the German market for corporate real estate and identifies the market volume available for REIT spin-offs. It furthermore discusses the fundamental requirements for corporate real estate monetisation, from the investorís, non-property companyís and legislatorís perspectives. Particularly the introduction of Private REITs would enable property portfolios to be structured and reach tenant diversification pre IPO in order to meet capital market and investor's requirements. However, this paper identifies more attractive sources of funding and exit channels for corporate real estate.
Hordijk, Aart, Jos E. Janssen, and Bert J. J. Teuben. "PART-SALES AS AN INVESTMENT STRATEGY: ANALYSIS OF PART-SELLING OF RESIDENTIAL UNITS IN THE NETHERLANDS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The ROZ/IPD Property index was established in 1994 to publicize an independent index on directly held real estate in the Netherlands. The real estate universe is split into the sectors: retail, offices, industrial, residential and mixed use/other. The residential sector consists of almost 50 % of the total investment universe. The residential investments became popular due to the subsidiaries given by the Dutch government. Since 1990 investors have wanted to reduce their investments and also to improve their portfolioís quality. The quality improvement has been achieved due to the sale of old properties and the purchase or development of new properties. There are two common methods of sales: full-sales and part-sales. Full-sales are determined as sales of complete apartment blocks. Part-sales are determined as sales of individual units to the current tenant or sale to an individual buyer when a tenant leaves. An important motivation for part-selling is the high return of those activities. In the past, several studies have been carried out on full-sales, but no quantitative study has been carried out on the characteristics of part-sales. In the past, until approximately 1995, part-selling was considered to be inappropriate for decent property investors. Currently, however, many institutional investors are selling individual units. Since 2000, approximately Ä 250 million of the total amount of Ä 18 billion residential investments has been disinvested every year by those institutional investors*. In the UK and the USA this isnít a usual property investment activity, but in other European countries like France, it is. In this paper the returns on part-sales will also be analysed using data from the ROZ/IPD property index. The returns will be compared against the returns of all residential investments in the Netherlands. Besides this comparison also the drivers of the return on the part-sales will be examined. * ROZ/IPD property index
Lizieri, Colin, and Shun-Te Tony You. "PATTERNS OF TENANT MIX VARIETY IN REGIONAL SHOPPING CENTRES: AN EXAMINATION ON THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN UK AND US CASES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. "In the retail hierarchy, the usual role of the regional shopping centre is to fulfill the highest ranked consumer demands. Therefore, the combination of the variety of the mix and the quality of tenants within that mix in a regional shopping centre will be a key element in maximizing shopping centre synergies and optimizing operational performance. Previous research on UK regional shopping centres, (Yuo, et al. 2003; 2004; Yuo, 2004), found patterns based on a ""core and periphery"" relationship between retail brands and variety that fed into differences in shopping centre rents. This work complements and extends prior studies of shopping centre attraction (for example, Mejia & Benjamin, 2002; Des Rosiers, Theriault & Menetrier, 2005). However, the consistency of the results and the principles of retail agglomeration they imply should be examined in other retail markets. Information from 148 UK regional shopping centres used in the UK research is augmented by use of full tenant lists data collected from 170 US regional shopping centres owned by the Simon Property Group (the largest US shopping centre REIT). These data are analysed using exploratory statistical techniques. The results from factor analyses show that the ore and periphery retail categories are rather different between the UK and the US market. This suggests that the functioning of consumer demand in regional shopping centres in these two markets is distinct. This implies that there may be difficulties in forming ""standardised"" tenant mix strategies for different countries. Given the growth in activity of global shopping centre owners operating in different countries and continents, this has interesting implications for management strategies of such firms."
Cheong, Chee, Richard Gerlach, Simon Stevenson, Patrick Wilson, and Ralf Zurbrugg. "PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY DRIVERS OF SECURITISED REAL ESTATE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper re-examines the sensitivity and importance of interest rates and stock market price behaviour on securitised property by decomposing their long-run impact between transient and permanent effects. This is achieved within a framework that accounts for endogenously determined structural breaks within the data. The paper uses a unique combination of the procedures used by Gonzalo and Granger (1995) and those of Inoue (1999). The results provide a different perspective on the relationship that securitised property has with these markets and sheds new light on their long-run interaction. Once structural breaks are accounted for the results show that securitised property is sensitive to both interest rate and stock market changes, regardless of the type of securitised property being examined. Evidence also points to companies with increased debt-to-asset ratios and companies that are REITs tax-exempt are still all influenced by both the equity and fixed income markets.
Seilheimer, Stephan. "PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT BASED ON BENCHMARKS IN THE PUBLIC REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The Public Real Estate Management (PREM) is the 4th largest Real Estate owner in Germany with 805 bill. Ä assets in properties. Even so the German PREM sector suffers from public depts, the lack of transparency in its properties (lifecycle costs, area and documentation of the build-ings), and of not having establishes relevant management instruments. Caused by finan-cial pressure, the PREM sector in Germany has started selling out a high number of valuable buildings for the last 5 years. This happened without havening installed a strategic real estate portfolio management to identify necessary and unnecessary public properties, to monitor the properties and to develop them. Portfolio management systems exist in the Corporate Real Estate (CREM) sector. They are based on the return on investment within the dimension the competitive advantage (x-coordinate) and the soft facts for market attractiveness (y-coordinate). Existing portfolio management systems use value benefit analysis, which causes subjective evaluations of the properties. During the last three years a system to evaluate and to develop public property portfolios using internal and external benchmarks has been developed at the Institute for Construction Management (IQ-Bau) at the Bergische Universit‰t Wuppertal. Its applicability has been proven by intro-ducing and using it at the police department of Berlin, Germanyís third largest public security company. Its successful implementation shows that selling public properties should only be the last opportunity to optimize the situation of Germanyís Public Real Estate Management.
Sims, Sally. "POWER LINES AND HOUSE PRICES: REAL VERSUS PERCEIVED IMPACTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Until recently, residential property transaction data was largely unavailable within the UK. Therefore, determining the impact of a detrimental condition, such as high voltage overhead power lines (HVOTLs), on the value of residential homes relied on the opinions of appraisers. However, when asking price is compared with transaction data for the same location the trend is reversed and appraisers were often found to underestimate the real impact on value. This paper suggests that when dealing with a detrimental condition where transaction data is scarce, the use of a multi-method approach may improve the reliability of findings; however, such results should be treated with caution.
Yetgin, Feyzullah. "PPP PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP APPLICATION TO REAL ESTATE IN TURKEY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The so-called public and private sector cooperation model (PPP) increasingly attracts interest and applications in recent years. A number of successful applications were realized by marrying the resources and dynamism of private sector and the vast experience of public sector. In such partnerships, public sector is dominant in defining the respective rights and obligations of the parties. European Commission is working on preparation of a guide for definition and application of PPP model. Certain member states of the European Union build infrastructures by employing PPP model. In Turkey, it is required to meet the housing demand of low-income classes as a principle of social state under the Constitution. However, the government lacks sufficient funds, so that it cooperates with private sector to allow building of projects on valuable plots of land, raises funds by employing a model of income sharing through sale of such plots, and uses said funds to built housing projects for low-income classes. This study reviews the applications and outcomes of the income sharing through sale of plots of land in Turkey as an example of PPP model. It is thought that said applications will be an example how to turn idle plots of land owned by especially the states of developing countries into economically viable assets by cooperating with private sector.
Monteiro, Rui. "PPPS, THE BUSINESS CYCLE, AND THE POLITICAL CYCLE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Bundling or public-private partnership (PPP) contracts, by contracting simultaneously the construction of an infrastructure and its operation for a long period, allow a single private contractor to internalise maintenance and operating costs in the decision regarding initial investments, increasing efficiency in the use of public resources, when compared to traditional procurement, in which infrastructure and operation are unbundled. Traditional procurement for infrastructure imply an erratic maintenance schedule, influenced by economic cycles (procyclicaly or contracyclicaly) and by political cycles. But PPPs, having predetermined minimum service levels, require an optimised (whole-life costing) maintenance programme, quite different from the traditional one. The benefits are obvious for the users or operators of the infrastructure, but the macroeconomic and political-cycle consequences of an extended use of PPPs present mixed results. With a switch from investment expenditures (under traditional procurement) to long-term service payments (under PPPs), governments have less scope for changing expenditure in response to the business cycle. The macroeconomic consequences of this switch depend on the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy, as well as on its usefulness. But an almost predetermined maintenance schedule, combined with steady long-term service payments in lieu of lumpy, politically influenced investment expenditures could help smooth the business cycle and reduce the links between political cycles and economic cycles. Even if there are costs in terms of foregone fiscal flexibility, they would have to be compared to the potential benefits of PPPs, especially better long-term budgetary planning and a more efficient use of scarce public resources. The paper draws on the European PPP experience in order to present the impact of PPP contracts on the patterns of public investment and on the business cycle. The long-term consequences of the increased use of PPPs are still not measurable, but some political-economic effects are already noticed.
Dobner, H.-J., Franz Fuerst, and Ullrich Werling. "PREDICTIBLE OR NOT? FORECASTING GERMAN AND US OFFICE RENTAL MARKETS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper presents the results of two variations of an econometric forecasting model for both German and US office rental markets. The main objective of this approach is to elucidate the capability of time-series regression models of basic market indicators to capture and forecast movements in occupancy patterns and rental rates in both countries with their inherently different institutional and economic structures. The first model is a three-stage simultaneous equation model. The first stage incorporates the office space market in terms of occupied space and absorption of new space. The second stage captures the adjustment of office rents to changing market conditions and the third stage specifies the supply response to market signals in terms of construction of new office space. The standard simultaneous model is subsequently modified to account for the specific characteristics using the New York market as a case study The results demonstrate that the market reacts efficiently and predictably to changes in market conditions. The significance of the estimated parameters underscores the general validity and robustness of the simultaneous equation approach in modeling real estate markets. The modifications of the standard model, notably the inclusion of sublet space in the rent equation, contributed considerably to improving the explanatory power of the model. Eventually, the market implications of three exogenously defined employment forecasts are tested with the model. The second model is based on the assumption that the vacancy rate is the sole determining variable of future supply growth. Thus, expected future demand is a function of changes in weighted past vacancy rates using an arctan function. This non-linear function takes into account threshold values at which expected supply decreases drastically. In contrast to univariate time-series approaches, this model is capable of explaining even some of the more idiosyncratic office market developments in Germany with a sufficient statistical goodness of fit such as the crisis of the IT sector in Munich or the development of Eastern German office markets. A further advantage of this model is that it may be incorporated in other, more comprehensive modeling systems. An empirical application to US markets demonstrates the adaptability of the model to various economic and institutional contexts.
Junnonen, Juha-Matti, and Antti Tieva. "PREVENTIVE LAW AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN FINNISH PPP PROJECTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Public-private-partnerships projects (later on PPP¥s) are long term, complexed and very challenging contractual arrangements and relationships. They bring new roles for public sector and also for private sector in terms of construction and services. In Finland PPP¥s are used for example in building large motorway projects, schools and sport and swimming halls. This paper will go through the major features of the Finnish PPP¥s. Preventive law focuses in practical views what comes to contract law and contractual issues. It emphasis contract preparation and negotiations as tools to recognize and allocate future¥s risks and different kind of other special contract issues and questions. Main target is to prevent problems instead of confronting them. Preventive law means also company-specific working methods in contract/project preparation phase. For example engineers, economists and lawyers have to find a common language so they can find out critical questions and issues during the preparation of a contract. Only this way future¥s contractual risks and problems can be avoided. This means also that companies have to invest to contract processes. This paper will clarify what preventive law is about in terms of contract law and contracting especially in PPPís. For example 20-40 years partnership relation with PPP¥s brings up also dozens of different risks into the picture. These risks are handled mainly during contract negotiations. During the negotiations parties allocate risks and also determine the tools for risk management. Risks can be seen in a preventive way and also as a tool for contractual planning. While risks are in a major role what comes to PPP¥s, also risk management is important. Every PPP project form an unique starting point what comes to risk management and planning it. This paper will discuss risks and risk management first in general level and after that focusing on PPP¥s in Finland.
Muczynski, Andrzej, Zbigniew Sujkowski, and Ryszard Zrobek. "PRINCIPLES OF MANAGEMENT IN POLAND OF PUBLIC REAL ESTATES FROM 1990 ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. To 1990 real estates owned by the State were dominated in polish cities. Conversions legally ñ structural and socially-economic after 1990 in Poland have caused singling out such owners as commune, administrative district and province. From 1990 there is flow from public sector to private sector. In the polish cities public sector is still strong (about 40% of area of the cities). In this paper authors have presented some principles of the public real estates management. Optimalization is base of works realize inside public real estate sector. There are range examples of this works for olsztyn municipality concerning public real estates.
Pfeffer, Tobias, and Patrick Schlump. "PRIVATE REITS IN GERMANY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The early elections in Germany last fall have postponed the decision process regarding the introduction of G-REITs. The leading lobbyist (IFD) has presented a bill, outlining a detailed framework of a possible G-REIT structure. This bill requires a mandatory listing in order to obtain the full scale of benefits attached to a REIT, i.e. tax-transparency. The big coalition, however, is still in dispute about the actual design. Other successful REIT regimes have provided for unlisted REITs, so-called private REITs. Especially insurance companies, that match their investments to long term liabilities and are not eager to participate in short term stock price volatility may be in favor of a private REIT. In addition, many possible REIT candidates have to consolidate and restructure their portfolios in order to transform into a successful REIT. This paper analyses existing private REIT structures from successful regimes, such as USA, Netherlands, Australia and considers the suitability of such a product for Germany. Furthermore, the capital market requirements for IPOs are examined to display the short comings of existing portfolios in Germany and argue against the sole introduction of public REITs. Besides a comparison of volatility of public and private REITs in selected regimes, an analysis of capital market requirements applying to real estate is conducted. As a result, the necessity of a parallel introduction of public and private REITs is shown to satisfy the demands of certain institutional investors and of the capital markets, which seems necessary to create a product that fosters the German property investment market and provides a competitive structure in an international context.
Najbar, Katarzyna. "PROPERTY MANAGEMENT AND FACILITY MANAGEMENT IN POLAND ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Polish property management market is not yet as well developed as in Western European countries. Until recently many developers would establish their own companies to service their buildings. However, recently, a growing number of property owners have been hiring outside companies with experience in property management. Estimates show that about half of all modern office buildings and commercial centers are serviced by professional firms. This are often foreign companies, who will enable the Polish company to take advantage of modern European know-how concerning facility management. They provide comprehensive, pro-active and effective management. This management includes: technical and telecommunications services, security, cleaning, internal settlements and planning, space rental, renovation and housing rental. Polish companies offer mainly a management and administration service for residential properties. The professional firms pursue to reduce maintenance and operation costs, identifying new sources of revenue and growing property value. The author makes an attempt to show how will the Polish real estate management market develope within next years.
Li, Ze, and Zhang Tianjie. "PROPERTY MARKET UNDER TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY IN CHINESE CITIES: CASE STUDY OF INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISM OF PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT IN SHANGHAI ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The paper is to understand the institutional mechanism of property market in China. The institutional changes initiated after Chinaís economic reform since 1978 have brought about a new mechanism for property development. The built environment evolves logically through the property development process which is defined by institutional mechanism. Urban growth begins to be led by market forces formulated within social relations shaped by the gradual institutional change. Using Shanghai as a case study, this paper explores the impact of institutional change on Chinaís urban development by examining the formation of property market in the transitional economy. Objective: The core idea of this paper is to understand the institutional change and its influence on the formation of property market in Shanghai. It includes, first, to understand the institutional mechanism of property market and how the mechanism evolve according to the institutional change; second, to analyze the evolution of the actors involved in property market. Methodology: this paper is a theoretical instructed and empirical based study; a framework of institutional analysis was used in interpreting the data collected through field reconnaissance and interviews. Adopting the main concepts of neo-institutional economy theory about institution, institutional change and property market, a theoretical framework of institutional analysis was developed. Then, at the empirical level, a street community in Shanghai coving an area of 1 km≤ was chosen to investigate the property right evolution. The detailed analysis of property right evolution will fill the gap of institutional analysis of property development mechanism under transitional economy. Conclusion: the path dependent evolution of institutional change from planning economy to market economy defined the path of property development in China. Property market was shaped by self-reinforcing mechanisms cultivated by interest groups. Contribution: This paper contributes to the institutional economic analysis of the built environment in general and to the understanding of Chinaís urban development in particular. First, a theoretical framework has been developed to analyze the institutional organization of the property market. Second, the path dependent evolution of institutional change from a central planning system to a market system provided a chance to analyze the character of property market under transitional economy.
Gardner, Alan, George A. Matysiak, and Alexander Vaughan-Jones. "PROPERTY SIZE EFFECT: SOUTH EAST UK OFIICES 1983-2005 ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The ësize effectí is a concept studied across various financial asset classes. It describes the relationship between investment performance and a measure size. In the equity market, this involves the shares of smaller capitalised companies delivering higher total returns than shares of mid- and high capitalisation. The underlying theory is that investors demand a 'liquidity premium' as they take the additional risk of not being able to trade at the stated quoted price. With individual property assets, it can be argued that the situation would be reversed. Investors are more able to trade small assets, drawing on a wider range of potential investors, than chunkier, infrequently traded properties. This ëliquidity premiumí should be priced into property yields as investors demand a higher premium to compensate for the liquidity risk. This is of particular relevance in the current ëhotí and liquid investment markets, where yield differentials have decreased as investors have accepted lower risk premia across the board. This paper analyses the performance of all offices traded in the South-East UK market over the period 1983-2005. It separates the various value bands into subgroups of yield bands, and traces the movement in yields across different lot sizes through time. This research draws on the uniquely constructed IPD/Gerald Eve transactions database, containing the performance of some 20,000 properties over the period 1983-2005.
Dent, Peter, Dan Rapson, and Sally Sims. "PROPERTY STIGMA: JUST THE LATEST FASHION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Since the Kyoto Protocol, established in 1997, the UK government has been committed to reducing greenhouse gases, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2) known to be a major contributor to climate change (global warming). To facilitate this, the DTI published the Energy White Paper in February 2003 and set a ëvery ambition goalí of reducing CO2 emissions by 20% based on 1990 levels by the year 2010. Part of its strategy is to reduce CO2 emissions from energy production by developing renewable energy production. Whilst there are a number of alternative renewable energy sources, the government has focussed on wind power due to the abundance of suitably windy sites within the UK (both on and off shore). The growth in this technology, whilst appearing to offer many advantages, has raised public concern about the impact that the visual and aural presence of these turbines may have on property values, particularly since the number of wind turbines sited around the UK continues to rise. This issue was recently highlighted in the media after a compensation claim was successfully won by a buyer who had not been made aware of the existence of planning permission for a wind turbine next to the home he had just purchased Whilst there have been a number of opinion studies undertaken within the UK which appear to show significant variations between locations (in particular between Scotland and southern England) and at different stages during the development process. To date, no research has established the actual impact on proximate house values. This study, therefore, seeks to establish the likely impact of onshore wind farms on residential property values in the UK.
Ismail, Maziah. "PROPERTY TAXATION REVENUE VS. BEST VALUE SERVICE PROVISION IN LOCAL AUTHORITIES: THE MALAYSIAN EXPERIENCE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Local government service delivery is the litmus test of a governmentís responsiveness to itís people in which a local authority is a ëcradle-to-graveí agency, supplying a broad range of services to local communities and disbursing formidable sums of money in the process. Similar to many parts of the world, the property tax is an important source of local government revenues in Malaysia. On the other hand, the impact of taxation influences the availability of financial capital that can be used for day-to-day expenses for the administration and purchase of utilities for property. In other words, it is evident that taxation system and its policy directly or indirectly affect the type, volume and quality of facilities provided within a local authority. This paper therefore, seeks to uncover a number of emerging political, social and economic issues pertaining to the rationality of property taxation as a basis for local authority revenue in an attempt to provide quality services for taxpayers. It aims to provide an insight on prevailing related issues which are increasingly becoming critical and requiring serious as well as immediate attention and solutions to ensure the delivery of best value services and achievement of taxpayerís satisfaction within local authorities in Malaysia.
Ilsjan, Veronika. "PROPERTY VALUE PROBLEMS AT AN ENTERPRISE: A CASE STUDY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Real property represents about one quarter of corporate worth. For many companies property is either their most significant cost or most significant asset, but still many companies underestimate the property value issues. Why? How are decisions concerning real property (value) made in organisations? The objective of the research is to determine how different business entities at an enterprise consider the property value: a) value estimation (valuation), and b) value management (property management). Three parties of one certain enterprise will be captured in the research: 1) Facility management, 2) Asset managemet, and 3) General management. The topic is tightly related with two internationally relevant research fields: corporate real estate management and valuation of properties for financial reporting. Both fields are new in Estonia and are almost not being examined. The case study of one certain organisation is made as a pilot case study for future broader research.
Alexandropoulou, Ioanna, and Nicolaos Triantafyllopoulos. "PUBLIC CHOICE THEORY APPROACH IN MANAGING STATE-OWNED TOURIST PROPERTIES IN GREECE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. State-owned properties in Greece fall into two categories: a) non-transferable state-owned properties (public property) and b) state-owned properties that belong to the Stateís ëprivateí properties which can be managed and sold as real private properties. Private state-owned properties belong to or are managed by several public authorities or public corporations. During last years, these state-owned ëprivateí properties are the subject of privatization programs. The Public Choice Theory approach provides an interesting context for exploring economic, social, political and ethical aspects of the governmental program of privatizations. The Greek National Tourism Organization portfolio of ëprivateí properties, situated in strategic locations, includes 300 plots of land totalling approximately 7,300 hectares, as well as hotels, marinas, health spa installations, casinos, etc. This huge public estate was acquired mainly by expropriations, during the 1960s and 1970s. Although all properties comprise a valuable resource of multi-faceted significance for the national, regional and local economic development of tourism activities, most land plots are undeveloped, while buildings and installations are obsolete. Tourism Development Co. is a public company that was created in the late 1990s, aiming at managing and developing the portfolio of properties belonging to the Greek National Tourism Organization. This paper initially makes a historical overview of how the ëprivateí state-owned land, managed by the Tourism Development Co, was acquired. Then, an examination of the statutory and ideological problems in developing and managing state-owned land follows. Do the aims and objectives of the Company align with the purpose for which the land was acquired? How are public and private interests organized around this public good that is State properties?
Bult-Spiering, W.D., G.P.M.R. Dewulf, and Marnix Smit. "PUBLIC INTEREST PERFORMANCE OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN URBAN DEVELOPMENT." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. PPPs are considered an important vessel in urban development. Given the nature of the problems, the need for an integrated approach, and the interdependences between public and private actors, non-traditional operating procedures are required. However, performance of PPPs, especially in terms of impact on public interest, is disappointing. Although the goal of PPP is to create added value, also in terms of public interest, the precise relationship and effects are often not clear. Adversaries of PPP fear that public interest is endangered by PPP. The private sectorís profit seeking goals are supposed to be in conflict with public or community values. Blurring boundaries between public and private sector could also dissolve accountability, transparency, and democratic choice. Project-based partnerships, like urban development projects, might in particular be questioned in solving certain public sector problems. In our paper we try to provide some clarity on public interest as a concept. We distinguish different perspectives on public interest and point down the public interest performance issues in PPP, based on literature research. Evidence derived from the urban development sector provides us with the sectorís characteristics. Based on these characteristics we attempt to derive the most suitable perspective on the assessment of public interest in urban development and specify public interest performance indicators for urban development, with a focus on the public-private interaction process. These issues will be made clear by presenting the case of The Hague Central Station area, one of the so-called ënew key projectsí, linked with the development of the Dutch connection to the European network of high speed rail lines. Based on literature review and the case analyses we show that in complex urban development projects there is no unambiguous public interest, but a complex of diverging, potentially conflicting public interests that are often not fully clear, formulated at an abstract level and might even change due to changed circumstances (technological, economical, political). These complex projects take place in a multi-actor and multi-level arena. We argue that the characteristics of these projects imply that planning means searching for common goals and solution directions and settlements with regard to costs, risks and control mechanisms and conclude that for assessing public interest performance both process as product criteria should be used. A shift from more hierarchical steering towards so-called network steering is required although there will still be tasks where the initiating and directing role of the government canít be missed or where private parties can only be induced to the democratically desired action by means of powerful government incentives. Most research regarding the safeguarding of the public interest focuses on the structural allocation or rearrangement of tasks and responsibilities between public and private parties in so-called network-sectors, like energy distribution, public transport, etc. Our research is aimed at analyzing the way public interest can best be safeguarded at project level. There is a strong need for research on project level since in today's network society (spatial) decisions are increasingly being taken place on project level in a public-private setting. Although a lot of attention is paid towards performance in urban development projects, little empirical studies are available and the research is mainly limited to the description of developments in specific cases and partial aspects. Most PPP research focuses primarily on enhancing the financial efficacy and/or on juridical matters in stead paying attention to the best way to safeguard the public interest. The underlying research aims at increasing this insight. This will make a more profound choice for the design of the process and especially the co-operation between public and private parties in this process possible.
Gartung, Thomas. "PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS FOR HEALTH CARE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The Public Private Partnership (PPP) model offers a solution to the current health care financing crisis in the public sector. By implementing the project as a PPP project the public administration intends to reduce the costs of running the hospital as a result of both increased efficiency in building and facilities management and transfer of construction and design risk to the private sector. Health Departments can focus on their core function without concentrating on functions of the facilities. The facilities are operated by a private company which has also been in charge of the new building or renovating process. One main objective for selecting the PPP model is transferring the risk to the private sector. In a PPP project the structural and procedural risks are no longer on the public side. The Health Department only provides medication and pharmaceuticals. The result of a PPP model offers a totally integrated health facility that incorporates the latest in information and management systems such as electronic patient records as well as leading edge medical equipment, including imaging modalities, laboratory equipment and patient monitoring. And to ensure that the consortium keeps the contract, a heavy penalty regulation may be applied in the event of insufficient performance or delivery failure. With PPP hospital projects lasting as long as the hospitalsí runtime and the macroeconomic situation of German hospitals, a general need of a change in planning behaviour of the public hospital provider comes up. As shown in prior projects in the education and administration sector PPP projects demonstrate the existence of synergies which should be also used within the health care sector. The required changes in interior hospital structures cause the need for new concepts like operating concepts. The operating concepts with the associated room program and the room equipment catalogues is the basis for the tender document issue and the performance description of a private PPP consortium by means of output specifications. The output specifications differ very much from conventional performance specifications for planning and building achievements or services and require a changed tender behaviour of the public hospital provider. IPM is involved as a project manager for the Asklepios Clinic AK Barmbek/ Hamburg, Germany. The new construction of the hospital is an important component of the future hospital care in Hamburg and is financed by Freie und Hansestadt Hamburg. The investment volume amounts to Ä 162 millions. After completion of the building project at the end of 2005 one of the recent hospitals of Germany is available with 676 beds in 2-storey to 5-storey buildings. The total construction period of the new building starting with laying the foundation stone in December 2002 was just three years of intensive construction time. The new clinic building is a compact nucleus, concentrating the latest technology available in medicine and communications. On 34,000 sqm floor space, eight operation theatres, seven smaller rooms for surgeries and other operations, as well as numerous single and double rooms for patients, equipped with media- and Internet plugs, TV sets, and ensuites. The building owner in this project is Molita which is represented by the CommerzLeasing. The user of the facility is the SBG (Servicebetrieb Geb‰udemanagement). The consortium ìmedical center Barmbekî, consisting of STRABAG AG and Imtech, is responsible for the building construction. The design was elaborated by the architects APB.
Abednego, Martinus, Amber Y. C. Jan, and Boeing Singh. "PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN ASIA: ENABLING FRAMEWORK AND RISK PROFILE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The economic growth experienced by the Asian countries has triggered the need for creation and rehabilitation of infrastructure in order to sustain the economic growth and remain competitive. The competition for the government budgetary resources between the socially-justified projects and the physical infrastructure expenditures have prompted governments to invite private investors to partially fulfill the widening demand-supply gap for infrastructure while the governments are endeavoring to meet the social commitments with the fiscal constraints. Governments are realigning their traditional budgetary-based procurement strategy to private investment through Public Private Partnership (PPP) approach. Structural & legal reforms and policy initiatives have been introduced by the Asian countries to enable private sector participation in various sectors, including infrastructure and real estate. The private investorsí responses to development of projects through PPP route are greatly influenced by the risk profiles of the projects and the in-built risk management framework besides other country and project specific characteristics. This paper will discuss the comparative analysis of the four Asian countriesí, viz. Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, and India experiences with Public Private Partnerships in the delivery of infrastructure. The private sector participation enabling environment and the threats deterring private investment in the traditional publicly procured infrastructure are analyzed using a research framework that reviews each countryís legal framework, government initiatives, economic and structural reforms, and risk profile. The implications of the private investment enhancing measures in overcoming the bottlenecks to private sector participation in the development of infrastructure projects are critically studied with the help of case studies from specific sectors in all the four Asian countries. The paper concludes with the effectiveness of the reforms undertaken in attracting private investment through PPP in the four countries.
Alexandropoulou, Ioanna, and Nicolaos Triantafyllopoulos. "PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN GREECE: PAST EXPERIENCE AND PERSPECTIVES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Public-Private Partnerships are not particularly new to Greece, as is the case for most European countries. In fact, in the previous decade three large-scale public works, as well as some smaller-scale ones, were constructed based on public-private partnerships. Contracts between the State and private individuals have been sanctioned by law in the Greek Parliament. The institutional framework that specifically defines PPP content, field of implementation, tendering and approval procedures, the means by which authorities fund works, as well as other related issues, has been covered by Greek law as recently as the end of 2005. The potentials and prospects for applying the new institutional framework are numerous and particularly far-reaching. The new law is expected, among other things, to help restrict the investment of state resources in public works, raise the quality of constructions, improve maintenance and operation procedures of public works, provide better services to citizens, mobilize privately-owned capital and boost regional development. Nonetheless, the expectations for the specific law may undermine its effectiveness, and its implementation may have negative repercussions in the very sectors in which the State seeks to increase the most improvement. The aim of this paper is to: * critically examine the new Greek institutional framework for Private-Public Partnerships; * evaluate PPPs projects carried out before the new law came into effect. // This paper includes a case study of the development of a 15-hectare, State-owned land plot, a project which included the construction of a golf course, tourist residences and hotel complexes. This study expects to: * draw conclusions concerning the functioning of public administration in Greece and the operation of construction and tourism sectors; * pinpoint the strong and weak points of the law in relation to the potential for achieving expected results.
Leopoldsberger, Gerrit. "QUALITY OF VALUATION - A COMPARISON BETWEEN VALUATION AND SALES PRICES IN GERMANY AND GREAT BRITAIN." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006.

For Great Britain are empirical data since the late 1980s available, that show the differences between valuation results and sales prices. For Germany no statistics of these kinds exists. The paperës objective is to show, if and to what level there are deviations between the results in valuation reports and the following sales prices. Futher more it should be investigated, if there is are difference between the deviations in Great Britain and Germany. The discussion about the German Valuation methods and about the valuation result of German Open Ended funds is mainly based on the assumption, that the valuation results differ from market prices. The idea of the paper is to show, if this assumption is based on market data or just on market rumour. For the valuation report and sales prices in Germany the paper will be based on data available from German Open Ended funds and some databases. For Great Britain the research will base on data published nowadays by the RICS and formerly by Drivers Jonas. Compared to the results from Great Britain it is assumed, that the German deviation between the valuation results and the sales prices of German property is more or less on the same level. If this is true, the different method of valuation seems to have little influence in the quality of the valuation reports result and that the assumptions on differences between valuation results and market prices are more market rumour than market data driven. If this is not the case, and German deviation differ form the British, the reasons for that will be elaborated.

Gogoneata, Basarab. "RATIONALITY AND IRRATIONALITY IN ROMANIAN HOUSE PRICES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the last three years Romanian housing market has boomed, average prices climbing over 300%. A traditional explanation relies on the growing popularity of mortgage finance. Cheaper and less bureaucratic loans have made a house affordable for more households and caused a sharp increase in demand. The inelastic supply and other market imperfections have generated a price bubble. This paper examines three market imperfections that could have facilitated extreme price movements. Firstly there may be a Giffen anomaly in Romanian urban housing market. Secondly, adaptive expectations and a risk-seeker behavior on ownerís side could also have fuelled a price bubble. Last but not least, the prices swiftly climbed due to a poor regulated real-estate brokerage sector prone to moral hazard. Giffen goods have long been a controversial topic to microeconomic theory. Since the publication of Principles of Economics by Alfred Marshall in 1895, the literature has strived (mostly unsuccessfully) for strong empirical evidence. This paper does not attempt either to support or to reject the Giffen hypothesis but rather to appraise the possibility of a fulfillment of standard Giffen preconditions. To the best of our knowledge this is the first application of Giffen theory in real estate markets. Another original contribution is the consideration of an emerging risk-seeker behavior in the housing market of a country whose population largely lacks appropriate investment education. The asymmetric information and the exposure of real estate intermediaries to moral hazard are well known and intensively researched topics. Therefore the original contribution of this paper in this field is some new evidence from a less investigated real estate market, focusing on the linkage between poor regulation and price bubbles. For drawing its conclusions this paper uses formal observations and some statistical evidence. The examination is focused on a sound discussion of relevant facts, data and generally accepted theoretical results. The main application of conclusions is a better understanding of real estate developments in a former-communist emerging market. Thus, these results should enhance the knowledge in this field and help potential investors. A major part of Romanian urban housing market consists of flats in multi-family panel apartment blocks built in the 1970s and 1980s. A legacy of the communist era, these low-quality flats provide poor housing conditions and almost all inhabitants would be happy to leave them. Unfortunately, for most people this is not an option in a country where the housing and heating costs in the winter can reach 80 percent of average income. The few families able to ìescapeî typically have incomes close to the purchasing power of an average Western-European household. Due to poverty and very few affordable new houses, the old flats have almost no substitutes and seem to fulfill standard Giffen preconditions, i.e., they are inferior goods, lacking close substitutes and comprising a substantial percentage of the buyerís income and wealth. Therefore, we conclude that as the prices went up, demand became even stronger causing a further price increase. Another conclusion of the paper is that due to speculative myopia general risk acceptance increased, bringing sellers close to a risk-seeking behavior. Finally we bring strong legal evidence that the real estate brokerage is very poorly regulated in Romania. The consequence is an overcrowded market for these services, the survival fight increasing the moral hazard exposure of intermediaries. In order to boost the fees, real estate brokers have usually persuaded owners and buyers to increase reservation prices.
Eder, Matthias. "REAL ESTATE CONTROLLING OF INSTITUTIONAL REAL ESTATE INVESTORS IN GERMANY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The increasing complexity und dynamics of the environment of companies have led to a higher demand on the managerial ability of senior management. To support senior management, a function and also institution called ìControllingî has been introduced in German companies. ìControllingî, a German term borrowed from the English language, functionally refers to several issues beginning from cost accounting to operational and strategic planning as well as management control and also issues of general management. Its characteristics often differ between companies and different states of development have been observed. From an institutional perspective ìControllingî refers to the ìControllingî department responsible for the coordination of the ìControllingî function. In the English language no translation for ìControllingî exists and thus a merely blurred translation of ìControllingî can be given by management accounting and control. During the last years ìControllingî became an important issue in the German real estate sector and often real estate controlling as function and institution has been or is being introduced now. However, so far no empirical scientific research has been conducted upon this field of interest. This paper describes the multi-method research model of a research project which aims to investigate real estate controlling of institutional real estate investors in Germany based on the contingency theory or situational approach of the organization theory. The propositions of the contingency theory say that the context of a company, differentiated in internal context (e.g. size of an organization) and external context (e.g. the complexity of an organizationís environment), influence the structure of an organization. Furthermore, the structure of an organization affects the conduct of its members and the efficiency of the organization. The paper also shows the result of the qualitative analysis performed via expert interviews concerning contextual factors influencing real estate controlling such as size of the company or real estate assets under management. Additionally, the characteristics of the design of real estate controlling will be illustrated by describing the function and the instruments of real estate controlling as well as the organization of the real estate controlling department.
Walther, Ursula. "REAL ESTATE FINANCING BY PPP - THE ROLE OF CAPITAL MARKETS AND INTERMEDIARIES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the context of real estate projects initiated by the public authorities Public Private Partnerships (PPP) have become increasingly important during recent years. Two main goals usually are strived for with such a scheme: to enhance operational efficiency and to make private financing available for public projects. As efficiency gains result from appropriate risk sharing and, on the other hand side, any financing essentially forms a risk transfer both goals are closely intertwined. A contract on risk sharing requires a risk assessment and a risk pricing both parties can agree upon. Risk pricing and risk allocation forms the core of what happens on capital markets where investment possibilities compete for investors and terms of financing. An efficiently working market reduces transaction costs by providing information and easing negotiations. But capital markets donít work as a matter of course. As serious information and incentive problems are to overcome they rest upon the services of specialised intermediaries that facilitate and accelerate transactions. The hoped for private financing of PPP projects therefore will only be achievable efficiently and well-priced if the necessary intermediation service is available. The paper analyses what kind of intermediation seems appropriate for real estate PPP-projects and whether offering such services is attractive for banks and other intermediaries in the current market situation. The large-scale changes in intermediation such as the trend towards disintermediation and a stronger specialisation on parts of the value creation chain are considered in their retroaction to the projects financing conditions. A sound understanding of these influences is important for public authorities in order to reasonably structure the projects and address the financing partners. The analysis shows that the concrete structure of a PPP-project is relevant for the appropriate kind of intermediation. But as those projects are highly specific and complicated a bank-based intermediation presently seems predominant. For some but not many banks PPP financing could be an attractive field of product specialisation within a strategy towards reaching a competitive advantage in specific know how. The business field well fits into a modern understanding of banks as being facilitators of risk transfer and providers of risk management services. A sufficient number of available projects is a prerequisite to make the field attractive. Whether banks are the often hoped for ënatural long term partnersí of the public authorities who offer evaluation and monitoring services is questioned by the increasing loan-trading activities by banks and the break up of the value chain in intermediation.
Aher, Neelkanth, and Srishty Aher. "REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT IN INDIA AND LAW ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Investments in Real Estate and Real Estate Investment Trusts in India have good future, given a strong legal backing for better functioning. India being a preferred destination to park funds, Foreign Direct Investment and other related issues are a major concern to facilitate the entry of foreign investors in the Indian Real Estate market. The exercise looks into legal frameworks and existing legal regulatory structure in India coming out with findings and suggesting reforms in the Indian legislations governing Real Estate Transactions, Mutual Funds and The Collective Investment Schemes. The present study also looks into the legal risk management highlighting issues and thereby, projecting Real Estate and REITs as a safe investment option for individual and institutional investors.
Jedelhauser, Julia, Philipp Kaufmann, and Hans Jörg Ö. tzbrugger. "REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT, FACILITY MANAGENT AND FENG SHUI ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Feng Shui is a very popular trend in the real estate market especially in habitation and nowadays in the work place management. The question of this paper is: which are the aspects to integrate Feng Shui into existing Real Estate Management theories as well as in Facility Management concepts. ìEverything is connectedî. This statement is the starting point for the possibilities of optimizing the workplace situation described in this paper. In order to achieve this it is necessary to place man as the center point of observation and to include inter-disciplinary approaches. The goal of the paper is to achieve more quality for man and enterprise by pointing out synergies of real estate management, facility management and Feng Shui and to combine the already existing knowledge. In the introduction, the basic principles and definitions will be outlined, for example Yin und Yang, Qi, five elements of Feng Shui or compass school. Existing studies as the ìOffice 21î survey of the Fraunhofer Institute on ìSoft Success Factorsî shows the importance of a harmonic man / environment relationship. The importance of psychological approaches for explaining Feng Shui are discussed, as well as the importance of psychological-emotional areas. The common goal of Real Estate-, Facility Management and Feng Shui is to optimize the work environment. Examples for implementing Feng Shui in an Real Estate- and Facility Management surrounding are presented. The result is that the success of the afford is not exclusively based on business results (eg costs), but rather on factors that are subjectively perceived and employee-related.
Beyerle, Thomas. "REAL ESTATE MARKET RESEARCH IN GERMANY. STRUCTURES, METHODS AND CHALLENGES. A COMPARISON OF 2003 AND 2005 ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. "When introducing oneself with the professional designation ""real estate researcher"" two quite different reactions are encountered. One is a gratifying nod from those active in the property sector, allowing the thought to be read, ""Oh yes, researchers compile market reports"". The second, often a somewhat blank look signifying chiefly ""Oh? I've never heard of that job"". Regardless of which reaction is to be expected, a further series of questions or attempts at clarification is prompted. To some extent, the research landscape in Germany is anything but uniformly structured: Concepts, demarcations and functional or professional structures are so differentiated that, so far, no structural or scientific analysis of the subject has taken place. And that is surprising in a field of research whose existence, in the final analysis, is justified by its approach to research. And from this, at least, the present author has to derive his justifiable and fundamental concern to address the subject. Building on a statistical survey, comparing the results of 2003 and 2005, the aim is to bring more transparency into this important but often unknown field of market research in Germany. Central to this, in terms of content, are two focal points: * Documentation of the development within a decade; * Comparison of two surveys in 2003 and 2005."
Focke, Christian. "REAL ESTATE MARKET SIMULATIONS - AN ADEQUATE INSTRUMENT FOR ASSESSING EMERGING REAL ESTATE MARKETS? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Predicting the development of real estate markets has always been a major concern for market participants, especially for investors. The amount and depth of data about a subject market as well as the stability of the market's institutional environment largely impact the quality and difficulty of market forecasts. Therefore, the prediction of emerging real estate markets is especially difficult. Using the case of Poland, this paper explores to which extent simulation techniques can be helpful in the context of predicting the development of an emerging real estate market. It concludes that simulation techniques are reasonably suitable to study the impact of changes in the institutional setting. However they cannot solve the data problem, therefore quantitative statements are not precise. The paper first introduces a broad understanding of the term market development and explains some basics of simulation techniques. Then a common market model is translated into a simulation environment. This model is then adapted and used for studying the case of Poland as an example for an emerging real estate market. The simulation results are confronted with empirical data in order to assess their explanatory power. The originality of this paper is in the application of standard methods of real estate market ananysis to the specific circumstances of emerging markets using the simulation technique.
Haberzettl, Christine, Julia Jedelhauser, and Philipp Kaufmann. "REAL ESTATE MARKETING FOR LEISURE AND ENTERTAINMENT PARKS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In this paper a real estate marketing concept for a leisure- and entertainment park is outlined. In this area following terms are important: communication strategy, customer relationship management, name identification and brand mark, Corporate Identity and the Unique Selling Proposition. Leisure and entertainment parks represent a special challenge to marketing, therefore the characteristics of the application are emphasized. This paper creates a manual for the entire management process of a leisure and entertainment park: from development to utilization. The concept is applied to a real case and the results are shown in the paper.
Stock, Alexandra. "REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO RISK MANAGEMENT PRACTICES OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS IN GERMANY: A SURVEY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Perception of risk of real estate professionals has been sharpened by failure of banks in real estate sector and bankruptcy of reputed real estate companies in Germany. However, despite a risen awareness for real estate risk management only little is known about the current state of risk management in portfolio management of direct real estate investments. Even less is known about real estate portfolio risk management practices of the professional real estate community. The purpose of this paper is therefore to examine the current state of risk management as part of real estate portfolio management and to identify risk management methods and instruments used by the institutional investors to manage portfolios of direct real estate investments. The first part of the paper will focus on different types of institutional investors and address the current state and objectives of implementation of risk management tools. In the second part, risk management practices of institutional investors will be identified. Since the process of risk management as part of real estate portfolio management differs from investor to investor, this part will be based on a model of a structured risk management process for real estate portfolios. For each part of the suggested risk management process, the applied instruments and methods will be identified and their relative importance analyzed. The final part of the study will examine factors that might enhance further development of real estate portfolio risk management and conclude with a general outlook on the future development of real estate risk management. The results of this paper are based on a written survey among the largest institutional investors in Germany, more specifically open-ended funds, closed-ended funds, pension funds, insurance companies and property companies.
Breidenbach, Manuel, and Marc Breidenbach. "REAL ESTATE SECURITISATION - A COMPARISON OF EUROPEAN DEBT SECURITISATION STRUCTURES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Real Estate Securitisation has become a broadly discussed topic during the last 2 years. There are many initiatives and discussions around the topic of Real Estate Investment Trusts, Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and Real Estate Asset-Backed Securities. While the term ìReal Estate Securitisationî is used in many ways, it lacks, however, a common definition and differentiation. The first step of this paper is, hence, to clarify the subject of Real Estate Securitisation, thereby defining and differentiating Debt from Equity Securitisation. The main focus of this research piece, however, shall lie on Debt Securitisation. In order to thoroughly analyze the industry, it is important to understand the different transaction schemes that are used in the European Debt Securitisation industry. This paper compares different transaction structures in European capital market real estate financings. The functioning of such structures will be derived as well as the implications of these structures for the real estate financing market. The results will be underlined by a case study based analysis of large residential real estate portfolio Securitisation transactions. The proposed conclusion is that there are many different transactions structures that all lead to the nearly same result of price-efficient funding for acquisitions of large real estate holdings. The main proposition is that due to long standing and stable cash flows, residential real estate transactions are the initiating drivers of Real Estate Debt Securitisation markets in Europe. As a conclusion this paper hints at a rising German Debt Securitisation market, fuelled by the Securitisation of large private equity portfolios.
Bruns-Berentelg, Jürgen. "REAL ESTATE STRATEGIES IN A LARGE-SCALE URBAN DEVELOPMENT PROJECT: GENERATING A HIGH-QUALITY PUBLIC GOOD BY DEVELOPING COMPETITIVE AND TRANSPARENT MARKET-DRIVEN APPROACHES AND PROCESSES. THE HAFENCITY HAMBURG PROJECT. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Academic literature tends to view large-scale urban development projects as a manifestation of a neoliberal model of urban development, an expression of an increasing integration of regions into global developments, and associates them with a trend towards privatisation of cities that is coupled with a loss of public control. This view overlooks the fact that large-scale development projects in particular open up a vast number of additional structuring opportunities for inner city areas. By effectively combining regional and global as well as public and private interests they can create new forms of urban quality. However, this requires an active commitment on the part of public decision makers to market-driven development processes by shaping the market-related context of large-scale projects. Good urban development provides the operational interface between market-driven real estate development and the public good, the city. Using the HafenCity Hamburg project as a case study, this presentation aims to demonstrate how public and private interests can be reconciled in major, largely private-sector funded real estate developments by adopting a rational choice model of urban development. Situated on 155 hectares of land directly adjoining the Elbe River and as the future home to around 12,000 residents and 40,000 service-sector employees and location of outstanding cultural facilities and public spaces, HafenCity Hamburg is one of Europeís most significant central city real estate developments. About 5 billion euros of private-sector investment matched by 1.2 billion euros in public financing create the basis for a sophisticated multiple-use concept, featuring also high-quality public spaces, social, academic and cultural facilities. With a public ownership share in the land of over 90 percent, a management-oriented institutionalised realisation structure and a measurable realisation progress, HafenCity Hamburg is a benchmark project for similar developments in other metropolitan centers. Using the project goals as a basis, this presentation will focus on how the HafenCityís real estate project development reflects Hamburgís approach towards generating market contexts that improve the quality of urban development. It will highlight the shift from pricing policy based market decision making (e.g. maximising land sales prices) towards one based on product and process quality (e. g. synchronised and expedited realisation, adherence to standards, etc.). These factors are not primarily regulated by intelligently applying planning laws but in the first place via competitive and subsequently cooperative processes. In relation to the level of competition generated for development areas within the HafenCity, one of three investor acquisition mechanisms applies: Variant 1 is based on competitive segmentation, Variant 2 is based on competitive negotiation and Variant 3 on non-competitive allocation. Although different in each case, the market entry conditions upon which these mechanisms rely can be designed as decision making contexts by the cityís urban development company HafenCity Hamburg GmbH. All mechanisms harbour different risks for the public sphere and all have different urban development outcomes. The development results show that, in a global context, specific market-driven approaches do not necessarily entail a loss in the quality of urban environments or urban development. By making urban development planning transparent, opening it up to an organised market competition and by employing cooperation strategies in later phases, large-scale projects such as the HafenCity development are an excellent means of harmonising commercial real estate and public development objectives. Global metropolitan development approaches such as those used for the HafenCity project represent new strategies for cities to take on a decisive role in the creation of ësound urban planning outcomesí without, however, relinquishing control of the process or the quality of the outcome.
Trevillion, Edward, Lulu Wang, and Toby Withall. "RECENT TRENDS IN THE EDINBURGH AND GLASGOW OFFICE MARKETS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The paper examines recent trends in the dynamics of the office markets in Edinburgh and Glasgow and reviews their importance in the context of the office market in the UK as a whole. It compares and contrasts the economic drivers of demand in these two Scottish cities and places recent office development in this economic context as well as historic market conditions. In particular, it examines the total new floor space developed in the two cities since the mid-1990 as well as trends in office rents. The paper includes a comparison of cyclical trends in demand and supply in the two cities and examines the likely impact of future employment trends on office market dynamics. As a result of the continuing demand for office space, it is becoming clear that both City centres are finding it increasingly difficult to fulfil long term demands for business space and both are witnessing a shift away from the traditional central business districts to new business locations. In this context, the paper reviews recent trends in out-of-town development and the impact of city centre constraints on new office development.
Brown, Roger J., and Beate Klingenberg. "RENT CONTROL REVISITED: EFFECTS ON THE PRINCIPAL AGENT PROBLEM IN PROPERTY MANAGEMENT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Rent control laws in the U.S. and many European countries purport to offer two benefits: a) provide housing similar to other commodities in a plentiful and cheap way; b) reduce effects of inflation on housing prices. Both objectives have in common the goal of providing affordable housing for the less fortunate in society. Economic as well as social effects of the introduction of rent control have since then been a source of heated discussions, in the public as well as in academia. However, there is a gap in the literature regarding the effect of rent control on property management. Any property owner faces the choice of self-managing property ñ hence incurring costs in form of time spent on management that could be spent otherwise (opportunity cost) ñ or retaining a third party manager. The latter case creates the well-known principal-agent problem, where the owner (the principal) hands responsibilities for her property to the manager (the agent). Although both are interested in utility maximization, the route to accomplishing these goal can differ considerably, often resulting in sub-optimal management and returns for the principal. There is some belief that the principal agent problem can be managed through the introduction of appropriate incentive structures. Building upon previously published work by the authors that developed models for the optimization of property management and the management of the agency problem, this paper investigates the additional effects of rent control. It is shown that optimization of income for the owner, or principal, can only be achieved if management is reduced and eventually eliminated entirely. An unanticipated consequence of rent control therefore is the deterioration of the housing stock, notwithstanding minimum habitability standards imposed by regulators. This dilemma argues against dropping management entirely and interferes with the ownerís quest to find the right incentive structure for his agent.
Arslanli, Kerem Yavuz, Vedia Dokmeci, and Ferhan Gezici. "RESIDENTIAL LOCATION AND HOUSING VALUES: AN ASSESSMENT OF REAL ESTATE VALUE DISTRUBITION IN ISTANBUL ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The aim of this paper is to examine residential location and housing value relations in Istanbul. In order to assess the degree of relation the MoraníI test of statistical distribution method is used. The dataset gathered from real estate agencies and weekly press releases covering 4 municipalities and 1.2 million households in 63 sub-districts. From 2000 to 2005 the change in the sales prices of the house values after the 1999 earthquake and before the 2001 economic crisis to the real estate boom of 2004. The type of the houses that were located among highly dense population lost more value than others in less dense areas of Istanbul. Fact that Istanbul separated into two continents, location and the distribution of the housing supply were unbalanced between Europe and Asia. European side is highly concentrated on office and industrial locations besides Asian side is more on housing. This factor stimulates the land values on each side of Istanbul to follow the trend in all cases. Distribution of the house values highly correlated to transportation, land use, population and density. Findings of the analysis indicates that residential location and housing values are correlated in acceptable significance value in MoraníI test (R=0.6954), but even this shows the positive interaction between residential location and housing value relation.
Eves, Chris. "RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SALES BY AUCTION: AN ANALYSIS OF THE SYDNEY RESIDENTIAL SALES MARKET. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The sale of residential property by auction is a preferred sale method by real estate agents, but not always preferred by some vendors and most residential property buyers. In many residential property markets, the performance and measure or residential property is based on the number of properties offered for sale by auction, auction clearance rates and the number of properties sold prior to auction. However, in many specific residential property markets, sale by auction may not be the preferred or supported method of sale. This paper will review the type of residential property sale within the Sydney residential property market and track the auction sales and clearance rates for a set section of Sydney real estate agents over the past 11 months and compare these results to the number of private treaty sales by the same group of real estate agents. This will provide a breakdown of real estate agency sale practice over a large metropolitan region to determine the impact of geographic location and socio-economic factors on the method of residential property sales.
Lorenz, David, and Stefan Trück. "RISK AND RETURN IN EUROPEAN PROPERTY MARKETS - AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the absence of appropriate comparable sales data property valuation literature suggests building up the capitalisation and/or discount rate starting from a risk free rate. In response to this need the basic purpose of this paper is to explore and explain actual returns in different property markets across Europe. We present an analysis of risk-return relationships in real estate markets and the interactions between the local capital and property markets. Based on observed excess returns over long term riskless yields, we examine spreads and risk premia for individual property markets. Our findings are significant correlations between observed yield spreads in the markets. However, there exist large differences between European markets regarding the magnitude of spreads and the risk-return relationship. Furthermore, we observe longer periods of negative risk premia for many segments of the property market. The findings of the paper can partially be used to back up property valuersí assumptions when determining capitalisation and/or discount rates without having access to sufficient comparable transaction evidence.
Leinonen, Jaakko. "RISKS AND POSSIBILITIES FOR FINNISH INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS IN NON-LISTED PROPERTY FUNDS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper defines the different risks related to non-listed property funds from the point of view of the Finnish institutional investor. The institutional investors (i.e. private pension insurance companies, pension foundations and funds, public sector pension institutions, life insurance companies) will invest more to real estate as an asset class because of the increasing pension funds and target allocations according to authorís previous research. The instrument will be more often indirect instrument. Estimates shows that pension funds will increase until 2020 and target allocation will be kept on the same level. It means that real estate investments must be doubled. Finnish institutional investors will meet challenges in diversifying their real estate portfolios to direct and indirect real estate investment instruments. Traditional real estate risk is changing to more and more complex risks i.e. management, finance and real estate portfolio risks in non-listed property funds. International diversifying through different instruments demand different skills and knowledge, but also new investment process. International instruments offer many possibilities and competitive returns compared to home market. Research methods have been and will be interviews and literature review. Interviews are semi-structured and they are tape recorded. This study will clarify the challenge of investing to non-listed property funds (also real estate equity funds) and the investment potential of pension funds and other institutional investors in Finland. Paper will describe the changes of the Finnish institutional investorís investment strategies and more global real estate investment market.
Kortmann, Konstantin. "SERVICE LIFE OF 20TH-CENTURY DWELLING HOUSES IN GERMANY: PRESENT FINDINGS AND PROJECTIONS." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006.

The objective of the paper is an analysis of the service life of dwellings in Germany. The service life of dwellings is important for different reasons: It is necessary for an estimation of the future development of the building stock and quality as well as for projections on new constructions. In addition, asset durability is one of the most important features of the housing market. An analysis of this feature may provide further insight into the market. Furthermore, the service life of the investment good is an important characteristic of the decision to invest in dwellings. Hence the service life is also important in the context of housing valuation: Since the initial rent in the housing market is usually less than in other real estate markets (e.g. office or retail), the payback period of the investment is quite long. The aim of the paper is the comparison of actual service life times with projections of how the service life of buildings will develop assuming economically rational investors. Since many, formerly publicly owned, housing companies in Germany are subject to increased economic pressure as a result of their sale to private investors, future predictions on the development and composition of the housing stock may be improved under this assumption for owner behaviour. The service life times of buildings have internationally been analysed (among others) by Johnstone (2001), Meikle&Connaughton (1994) Gleeson (1985) and Needleman (1965). In Germany, the service life of the building stock has been analysed by Bradley et al. (2005), Bradley (2004) and estimated by Voss (2001) and Eekhoff (2002). Among these, two different approaches can be identified: The analytic approach is based on macro data and estimates building loss rates over the whole stock and the micro/life table analysis identifies loss rates in certain subsets of the total stock within regional, age or other boundaries. The estimation of service life and loss rates of buildings by using the Kaplan-Meier-Estimator conducted is one standard method among the authors of the second (life table) approach: It was already conducted by Johnstone and Bradley, both using data on a different stock. However, the idea of the calculus of the investor as the most important determinant of service life has not been articulated among these assessments. The work is based on observations of houses of a big dwelling company in the Ruhr region of Germany with approx. 15,000 buildings. The buildings date from all over the 20th century. They are of lower quality. Data on loss and cash-flows is available from 1991-2004, over 14 years. The normal service of a building is defined as the time that elapses before 50% of the objects under observation are knocked down. Using the Kaplan-Meier-estimator for estimating the survival function and extrapolating these estimations with the Weibull-function yields an estimated service life. This is remarkably longer than expected using conventional data on service life. This result for service life will be compared to the service life that is obtained under the assumption of an economically acting investor. To obtain this, more information about the development of rent and running costs of the buildings is necessary. This is done by analysing the patterns of the cash-flows of the dwellings using data from 1991 to 2004 (14 years). The results are obtained by towns as boxplot diagrams (cash-flow over time) and mean values over time. Using the results from this analysis a replacement time may be identified. Down to the present day the analysis has not been finished yet. However, preliminary results are available: Even when extrapolating the extraordinarily high demolition rates (in relation to the one for the whole stock of Germany) from the last decade the estimation for the service life of the dwellings included in the analysis is approx. 140 years. This means that the German society will live in these low-quality buildings for a longer time than perceived at present. Another preliminary result is concerning rent: It is decreasing as the building is ageing. There does not seem to be a strong correlation of rent and age, though. These findings are only partly in line with considerations of Sotelo (2001) for the German dwelling market, the results of Baum (1991) for the London office market and the Filtering Theory. No dwelling included in the analysis is older than 107 years though, hence validity over the total German stock is limited. On the other hand, there seems to be a similar correlation of running, especially maintenance costs, with age. In opposition to other investment goods, the maintenance costs of dwellings seem not to follow the bathtub curve. This curve with initially falling, in the second phase constant and then rising maintenance costs is presumed to be typically for investment goods. However, this seems not to be the case for housing. After a short period of low maintenance costs the costs are rising quite rapidly. After 10 years approximately the annual increase is starting to slow down. The pattern can be described with a initially slowly growing logarithmic function. Further analysis needs to be conducted. These two observations of slowly decreasing rents and increasing running costs need to be further assessed for their stability. If the findings should hold it may be possible to calculate an optimal time for replacement of dwellings. Comparing this calculated economic replacement age with the observed replacement age will yield results that allow for the estimation of future development of the necessary construction rate, demolition rate and of the size, state and age of the building stock.

Gersberg, Nils, and Heidi Rasila Suv Nenonen. "SERVICE ORIENTED REAL ESTATE BUSINESS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. One way to develop existing office building is to improve it as a service platform instead of just renovating it. When seeing the real estate from a service-oriented point of view it becomes evident that in addition to the physical elements there are many service elements also. This has been noticed for quite a long time now and the existing service elements are quite constant, at least in Finland. Quite similar service elements may not be used to differentiate real estate owners from other possible landlords. Because of this standardisation Finnish real estate owners are considering new ways of competing and differentiating with service elements in ever more fierce competition. The aim of this article is to present business premises as a service oriented product and to envision some new potential service elements to high-end business premises. To reach this aim, representatives from real estate sector organizations were invited to 2 workshops held during the year 2005. The results from these workshops were complemented by two separate thematic interviews in two different real estate owner organizations. These empirical findings were then backed up by a literature review. As key conclusion 4 potential new service-oriented elements of real estate product were found. These are improved customer relationship management, services meant to improve well-being of end-users (the employees), increased building owner-service provider-tenant interaction and increasing the amount of service offerings in the early stage of the customer relationship. The literature on real estate from product point of view is scarce. Still understanding the real estate business from this point of helps both real estate owners and real estate related service providers in understanding the tenants. New elements that are introduced could be used to add value to the tenants and through that increase business performance of the real estate owners. It also helps them in finding new business potential and in differentiation. To knowledge the Finnish situation may also help real estate actors in other countries to see their business from a new angle. Theoretically this work contributes by bringing some new ideas from business literature to facilities management field.
Rottke, Nico B., and Dirk Schiereck. "SHARE PRICE REACTION OF BANKS IN THE CONTEXT OF DISPOSAL OF NON PERFORMING REAL ESTATE LOAN PORTFOLIOS: EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The real estate banking industry in Germany has undergone severe changes due to changes in the legal framework, consolidation processes and economic crisis. As one of the results, German banks begin to sell their portfolios of non performing real estate loans. The six relevant transactions in Germany from 12/2003 to 12/2005 are: - Lonestar/Hypo Real Estate EUR 0.5 bn. ; - Lonestar/Dresdner Bank EUR 1.2 bn. ; - Lonestar/Hypo Real Estate EUR 3.6 bn. ; - Citigroup/Eurohypo EUR 2.4 bn. ; - Lonestar/Aareal Bank EUR 0.7 bn. ; - JP Morgan/DZ Bank EUR 0.6 bn. // The authors likes to track the reactions of the NPL-sale for the seller bank and the investor analyzing the afore mentioned transactions by surveying the short and the long term capital market reaction CAR [+1/-1] and CAR [+20/-20]. Conclusions are drawn which explain the results by focusing on the changes of the German banking industry.
Keisers, Maximilian, and Dirk Schiereck. "SHAREHOLDER WEALTH EFFECTS OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE MERGERS - AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The real estate finance industry has experienced significant consolidation since the early 1990s and continues to change rapidly through mergers and acquisitions. But are these transactions creating value for the respective shareholders as they should? Interestingly, despite ongoing consolidation activity and despite the sheer size as well as the importance of the industry hardly any empirical research analyses the value implications of acquisitions in the real estate finance sector up to now. Additionally, the few existing studies suffer from small sample sizes. As a consequence the question still remains whether acquisitions in the real estate finance sector do create value for the target as well as for the bidding firms' shareholders. This study aims to fill this gap in the literature by assessing the value implications of a large sample of 194 domestic and cross boarder M&A deals of exchange listed real estate finance institutions between the years 1991 and 2005. To assess the value implications we use event study methodology and apply the market model to compute expected returns. We find that shareholders of the target on average experience a significant positive revaluation of their shares whereas the positive wealth effects for bidding firmsí shareholders are smaller and insignificant. This implies that M&A in the real estate finance sector are wealth creating for the combined entity. These findings also provide an interesting argument for the present discussion on a 10% cap on shareholdings in REITs.
Chin, Lawrence. "SHOPPING CENTRE AND ITS ROLE AS A LIFESTYLE CENTRE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Every shopping centre must have a basic identity and it serves as a basis for setting up a desirable tenant mix (Alexander et al, 1983). A good tenant mix will maximise interaction among shops and as a result, this cumulative attraction among stores will increase retail sales. Increasingly, shopping malls are not just a building for buying things, but also a place where shoppers engage in social and leisure activities. The choice of anchor tenants for a shopping centre is crucial to the success of the mall in todayís highly competitive retail market. Moreover, the type of anchor tenant selected for the centre will influence the image of the shopping centre. Having an established anchor tenant provides financial security because this tenant leases a large space for a relatively long period of time. Therefore, the owner/landlord is assured of a reasonably stable real income stream. This study aims to examine the role of shopping centres as lifestyle centres and the selection criteria for anchor tenants. It analyses a sample of shopping centres in Singapore which have been developed as lifestyle centres. Questionnaire survey is used to determine the opinions of management on the basis in selecting anchor tenants.
Akakandelwa, Nalumino. "SHORT-CUT APPROACHES TO CALCULATING DEPRECIATION IN THE COST METHOD OF VALUATION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In financial reporting an asset has cost or value if it can be measured reliably. The increasing demand for information disclosure in accounting reporting standards is drawing interest on how valuers and accountants can speak the same language when reporting asset values. Within the framework of financial reporting, International Valuation Standards focus towards compliance with the conventions adopted by the International Accounting Standards. This paper contributes to harmonising depreciation calculation by introducing short-cut formula approaches that may be incorporated into valuation practice and at the same time consistent with the language accountants understand. It presents formulas for calculating allowable annual depreciation (AAD), accumulated depreciation (ACD), and depreciated asset values (DAV) in the accelerated methods. The formulas overcome the use of cash flow tables, simplify both the teaching and practice of the cost method of valuation and can be applied to any depreciable assets.
Dust, Lisa, and Wolfgang Maennig. "SHRINKING AND GROWING CITIES - ASYMMETRIC REAL ESTATE PRICE REACTIONS? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The population of Germany will be one of the first in the western hemisphere to undergo considerable permanent shrinkage. The fact that these envisaged demographic developments will have a significant effect on the pensions, health and nursing care insurance systems, and will hence heavily influence the lives of people in Germany, has not only been extensively underpinned with quantitative data but has also generally been recognised by the population at large, even if the emphasis tends to be on the ageing phenomenon rather than population decline. By contrast, awareness of the effects of projected population decline and ageing on adjacent areas of greater or lesser importance such as regional real estates markets, remains in its infancy. DiPasquale/Wheaton (1996) demonstrate a significant positive influence of growth in the absolute number of households on real estate prices for 20 US-American Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Areas (CMSAs) over the period 1980 to 1990. Terrones and Otrok (2004) estimate the growth in house prices in a multivariate model and arrive at a significant influence of population growth on a highly aggregated national level. Fratantoni et. al. (2005) evaluate a positive correlation between population growth and increased house prices at the level of the US states. Neither studies examine separately the effects of population declines, since decreases in population numbers in the regions they analyse have hardly ever been previously recorded. Finally Cerny, Miles und Schmidt (2005) calibrate the impacts of ageing and social security reform upon the demand for housing, but fail to undertake an empirical assessment of the relevant parameters. As far as the authors are aware, no differentiated modelling of population growth and decline, or of their effects on real estate prices, currently exists, although such a task could be worth performing: Leaving aside any regional restrictions on land available for building, the chronic under-utilisation of European building production capacities means that an increase in demand could largely be satisfied without positive price impulses. By contrast, if demand were to be reduced there is a possibility of a relatively inelastic supply reaction: In view of the typical constructions methods prevalent in the European economies, the assumption of downward rigidity in supply quantities in the short and medium term seems to be confirmed by these results. The example of eastern Germany, one of the regions in the world most affected by population decline, shows that in spite of considerable levels of unoccupied buildings ñ up to 20% in some areas (Dascher, 2005) ñ capacity reductions by demolition are only being induced by cost-covering state demolition subsidies that in some cases even include debt repayments. Given that demand ñ both in the rental and the property sectors ñ also reacts with low price elasticity, significant price decreases in the real estate sector could result. The dominant position of real estates assets in private household portfolios in most western economies means that significant complications could arise e.g. for consumption and growth. This work supplements existing studies by examining real estate prices for single-family houses on the disaggregated level of German urban districts (kreisfreie St‰dte) and explicitly studying the differing effects of population growth and decline. At the same time, checks are made for other potentially relevant factors influencing real estate prices such as household income, building costs and regional urban residential structures.
Keeping, Miles, Daniel Rapson, Claire Roberts, and David Shiers. "SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE PROPERTY INVESTMENT (SRPI): A REVIEW OF UK INVESTMENT PRACTICES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The realisation that the methods employed and decisions made by property investors can have negative social and environmental consequences has led some to call for the principles of ëSocially Responsible Investmentí (SRI) developed in equities investment, to be applied to property. However, the extent to which property investment managers have responded to this call remains unclear, as are the methods which will need to be employed to make property investment more socially responsible. This paper addresses the current lack of theory in this area by reviewing progress towards socially responsible ëpropertyí investment (SRPI) in the commercial property investment practices of the ten largest UK property investment managers. The paper uses publicly available company literature (e.g. company financial reports, CSR reports, web pages) to understand the SRI policies, practices and products of each companyís equities investments, in order to understand current methods used and identify possible ëbest practiceí examples. It then uses the findings to carry out a similar appraisal of their property investments, while also looking for any property-specific activities which might reduce the negative impacts associated with the property investment process. The paper uses original methodology to group SRI/SRPI activities into ëmilestonesí against which inter and intra-company comparisons could be made and best practice models identified. Findings show differing levels of progress towards SRI and SRPI and a lack of intra-company association between progress in the two areas. Though specific SRPI products are found to be scarce in comparison to those available in equities SRI, other activities are identified which may help address the impacts associated with property investment, and it is argued, should be considered as progress towards SRPI.
Adair, Alastair, Stanley McGreal, and Bruce Weber. "SOLUTIONS TO THE FIVE KEY BROWNFIELD VALUATION PROBLEMS." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006.

A clear statement of the paperís objectives and subject matter: The objective is to solve the five problems that a German and US bilateral working group concluded need to be solved for successful brownfield redevelopment. An assessment of the originality of the paperís contribution to the specific field involved: The contribution of these solutions to the field of brownfield redevelopment are based on the authorís doctoral thesis, the first effort found to integrate the scientific process into the appraisal process to solve the problems of redeveloping contaminated land. An outline of the methods used and proposed application or theoretical contribution: The method used was to search literature from a variety of disciplines that were said to be essential (by those actively involved in brownfield redevelopment) in providing the analysis requisite for brownfield redevelopment to be successful. The theoretical contribution is the application of scientific methods from these disciplines in conjunction with methodologies use in the U.S. Triad process within a valuation model in order to quantify the previously unquantified uncertainty that has precluded brownfield redevelopment. Empirical data is also included that reveals the errors that result can from the use of conventional valuation methods. An overview of key conclusions or proposed conclusions: The current valuation methodology for brownfields is seriously flawed. A panel of 30 practitioners actively involved in brownfield remediation have agreed that it is absurd to use one contaminated site to infer remedial time and cost (for all but the simplest soil contamination) for another contaminated site-especially without understanding conceptual site models for all of the sites. This conclusion is a result of the heterogeneneity of subsurface soils. A combination of discrete choice modelling and Bayesian econometrics should be used in conjunction with Monte Carlo methods to quantify the uncertainty of the reversionary value and sustainability of the redeveloped property. GeoBayesian methods should be used when soil contamination is found in order to statistically quantify the amount and spatial extent of contamination and stochastic inverse methods should be used to probabilistically quantify remedial time and cost when an aquifer has been contaminated.

Castellanos, Luis, Montserrat Díaz, Miguel Fernandez, Laura Galguera, Christos Giannikos, and Paz Mendez. "SPAIN NATIONAL HOUSING POLICY: DEVELOPING A PROFILE OF BENEFICIARIES OF PUBLIC HOUSING ASSISTANCE? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Spainís national housing policy is primarily focused on assisting individuals with limited economic resources in gaining access to affordable housing. Through various programs, rule, and regulations the government has historically sought to increase the supply and affordability of housing. A householdís income has traditionally been the primary criteria used to determine who the beneficiaries of public assistance should be. Using Chi-squared Interaction Detection (CHAID) analysis this study examined how social, economic, geographic, and household preference factors influenced the price individuals were willing to pay for a new home. This study found that while a familyís housing expense and employment status play a role in determining a familyís ability to purchase a home, other non-economic factors also play a role. Particularly important are the familyís intensions of having more children, the municipality of the new residence, and the desire of the family to obtain public assistance.
Schneider, Bernhard, and Magdalena Zaleczna. "STANDING IN THE SHADOW - THE PROBLEM OF THE ÑCLASS Bì URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The paper does deals with the following questions in general: * re-defining and re-developing shrinking cities after their industrial era ñ the question of making growth happen in strategic urban development features of shrinking cities ñ ìex navicula navisî; * Standing in the shadow ñ the problem of the ÑClass Bì agglomeration ñ why in many cases it pays off to have a close second look at B-rated urban agglomerations, and why investors who went there tend to be content; * Linkage between zoning and investment policy ñ can locations attract FDI only by financial subsidies or is there a significant potential for improvement of zoning and planning procedures which can prove to be more effective? // The paper does not look at these questions only in theory, but in front of the background of the second largest Polish city. It provides a comparison between the attractiveness of the conditions of investment in Warsaw and in _Ûd_. Flexibility in zoning and planning, duration of procedures, governance and the persistence of bureaucratic obstacles, and also adequate possibilities of participation for investors, but also for other stakeholders are analyzed in this respect.
Cieleback, Marcus. "STOCK MARKET MOVEMENTS AND THE OFFICE MARKET: A EUROPEAN ANALYSIS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The stock market is often seen as a leading indicator for the real economic activity. As the office market movements are influenced by and lagging the development of real economic activity, this paper analyzes if the stock market can help to predict the movement of prime rents in European office markets. The analysis is conducted for several major European office markets using different stock market indices. The analysis shows, that the influence differs considerably between the indices used and between the office markets, depending on their user structure and international importance.
Soeter, Jo P.. "STOCK-FLOW-TREND ANALYSIS OF CAPITAL FORMATION IN BUILDINGS 1960-2020 ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Since the seventies the Dutch non-residential construction output is cycling with an upward trend to an all times peak in 2001. The upswing after 1983 with an interruption in the early nineties was for facilitation of the growing service sector and was in relation with growing ICT-activity and innovation of the economy. Based on the construction statistics the investment in new buildings and the investment activity within the existing stock are analysed and projected for the period 1960-2020. This will be presented for the whole Dutch economy and for separate economic sectors (agrarian, industry, services and non-market). Otherwise investment in buildings is split into investment for expansion and investment for renewal of stock. Within the macro trend scenario investment for expansion is linked to the increase of the GDP with correction for rising building productivity. The macro trend scenario for investment in renewal is based on GDP level and the revealed and expected turnover period of investment in buildings. Trends based on GDP links are compared with trends based on physical indicators (for instance stock in square meters) and with trends based on functional indicators (for instance office employment x square meters per fte). The stock of buildings is permanently in transition due to a thrive for economics of scale and rising productivity, in relation with embedded ICT investments and due to a shift of economic activity within the sectors agriculture, industry, services and non-market and shifts between these sectors. Further investment for renewal of the stock of buildings depends on general economic growth, on the turnover period of former investments and on technological development and innovation. The actual problem of choice of upgrading of the older parts of the stock against replacement according to nowadays requirements has to be answered by combining economic, technological, functional, financial, sustainable and environmental considerations.
Newell, Graeme, and Ross Seabrook. "STRATEGIC PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION FOR HOTEL INVESTMENTS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Given the stature of international tourism, hotel properties are an important property investment sector. While considerable research has been conducted for office, retail and industrial property, only limited research is available concerning the hotel sector; particularly concerning hotel investment decision-making. Using REVPAR data and 41 hotel variables, geographic and economic influences will be assessed for hotel investments in ten major hotel markets in Australia over 1988-2004. The resulting improved hotel portfolio construction and re-weighting procedure will be assessed via case-studies for two major institutional hotel portfolios to assist hotel investment decision-making.
Gardner, Alan, and George A. Matysiak. "SYSTEMATIC PROPERTY RISK: QUANTIFYING UK PROPERTY BETAS 1983-2005 ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The increased frequency in reporting UK property performance figures, coupled with the acceptance of the IPD database as the market standard, has enabled property to be analysed on a comparable level with other more frequently traded assets. The most widely utilised theory for pricing financial assets, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), gives market (systematic) risk, Beta, centre stage. This paper seeks to measure the level of systematic risk (Beta) across various property types, market conditions and investment holding periods. This paper extends the authorsí previous work on investment holding periods and how excess returns (Alpha) relate to those holding periods. We draw on the uniquely constructed IPD/Gerald Eve transactions database, containing over 20,000 properties over the period 1983-2005. This research is aimed at quantifying the risk premium inherent across property types and looks at the stability of those premia over the last 22 years. It allows us to confirm our initial findings that properties held over longer periods perform, to a large extent, in line with overall market performance. One implication of this is that over the long-term portfolio performance may be no different from an index tracking approach.
Feldmann, Philipp, and Tobias Pfeffer. "TARGET GROUP-SPECIFIC CLUSTERING OF OFFICE TENANTS IN GERMANY - AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. High vacancy rates, the ascent in non-marketable office buildings and increased flexibility and regional mobility of office tenants have fostered the relevance of a segmentation of office tenants as well as of the application of target group-specific management strategies with regard to office buildings in Germany. Although the ìmarket-oriented view of real estateî has increased in importance in the German office market, the application of target group-specific marketing strategies have been criticized for a lack of empirical base. To address this deficit, we evaluate statistically the results of a comprehensive survey of German office tenants. Hereby, we particularly utilize factor and cluster analysis to segment different target groups. The contribution of the study is its thorough theoretical and empirical investigation of German office tenants. In this way, the empirical survey investigates the strategic relevance of a target-group specific view on office tenants for various groups of stake holders. Hereby, the analysis aims to contribute to an optimal management and design of office buildings in a market-oriented way. Thus, the paper identifies different groups of office users with different preferences. By this means, the investigation shows the importance of a range of diverse attributes regarding the macro and micro location, fitting, appearance and services for diverse target groups. The authors contend that an essential part of a successful (re-)development, letting or positioning strategy requires the application of a target group-specific approach. In light of the current market circumstances, a clear and differentiated segmentation of office tenants is necessary to outrank the competition.
Namata, Farida. "TAX TREATMENT OF REIT MODELS: EVIDENCE OF INTERNATIONAL PRACTICE AND LESSONS FOR THE UK REIT MARKET ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. A highly discussed topic in real estate currently in many countries including Germany and the UK is the introduction of tax transparent investment vehicles commonly referred to as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The UK government published a consultation paper alongside the 2004 Budget to consider reforms in the UK property market and in particular to reform the tax treatment of property investment in the UK. Reform of the tax treatment of property investment is expected to improve liquidity, transparency and scrutiny, provide access to property for long-term savings, and expand the private rented market. Therefore, the UK Government has expressed its commitment to the introduction of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), such as those common in many developed property markets around the world. The key stated aim for UK REITs has been to ensure that the returns from different forms of direct or indirect UK property investment are taxed in broadly the same way. However, three key challenges in the tax treatment of the UK REIT model, relating to non-UK resident investors, borrowing and group structures have yet to be although policy options have been suggested. This paper looks at the ways other leading economies with REIT-type vehicles already in place, in particular the US, the Netherlands and France, have dealt with the aforementioned key issues in the tax treatment of their REIT models and examines the alternative models available to date. This paper argues that the UK should follow a modification of the ëexempt company modelí.
Andrew, Mark, and Alan Evans. "THE ANATOMY OF SPECULATION IN A HOUSE PRICE BOOM ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Analyses of a speculative housing boom (see Malpezzi and Wachter, 2005) tend to treat the housing market as an indivisible whole, and so treat housing as an investment asset not dissimilar to other, more liquid, investments such as stocks and shares. However it is dissimilar. In the first place whilst households can choose to completely disinvest from shares if they think a price fall is likely, they can do so and put the money in the bank. But households have to live somewhere. Thus it is virtually impossible to invest and then completely disinvest. Further, because of the high cost of moving, both financial and emotional, most households, particularly ëmatureí households choose to remain where they are. One group can take a speculative position, however, and that is the young. They can decide to continue renting and sharing or living with their parents, or they can decide that now is the time to move out, ësettle downí and buy. Those who have bought already and wish for larger accommodation can decide that now is the time to ëtrade upí. Statistical evidence for the UK housing market allows the price of different types of dwellings to be distinguished. The evidence shows that the prices of smaller dwellings, primarily apartments, tend to be much more volatile than the prices of larger properties, primarily detached houses. Indeed whilst at the end of the last two price booms, at the end of the seventies and eighties, the price of apartments fell in money and real terms whilst the price of detached houses fell only slightly in real terms and not at all in money terms. We conclude that as prices rise younger households perceive that if they do not buy now, they may miss the opportunity to ëget on the escalatorí, and so buy into these smaller properties. When prices hesitate and start to fall this feeling of urgency vanishes and they choose to remain in their current accommodation for a while longer. What also happens is that, as prices rise, younger households who already own but who wish to move into larger accommodation find the larger properties they would wish to buy have moved beyond their reach, and so they have to settle for something smaller. This ëtrading downí also helps to ensure that the prices of smaller and middle sized properties rise faster in the boom. But when prices start to hesitate whilst incomes continue to rise, trading up becomes more feasible once again, and the prices of larger properties fall less than those of the smaller.
Siniak, Nikolai. "THE CONDITIONS FOR INVESTMENTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN BELARUS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The paper analyses the opportunities and problems of investment in rapidly growing markets like Belarus. It was analyzed economy and investment legal background in Belarus, investment attractiveness of the real estate market, opportunities for foreign investment. In the past years the real estate market in Belarus has been booming. It is especially true for the capital and to a lesser extent ñ for Belarusian province. However, in relation to the province the term ìlesserî is not quite appropriate. Thus, while in Minsk price of the real estate during the past four years has grown almost three times higher, in the other developing Belarusian cities it has grown twice higher. The current rate of the prices is obviously not the limit. It is proved by the growing demand for the real estate objects, resulting in the rapid and continuous increase of the prices. This is happening despite of the annual increase of building volumes and constant stimulation of the construction programs (especially in rural areas) by the government. The paper identifies problems affecting the registration of the rights to real estate, property development and formation of the legal environment. It is also aimed at identifying the obstacles in property purchasing, particularly in its organizational framework that hinder development of the real property market. The paper also assesses transaction cost of this particular purchase for the parties involved (i.e. seller and buyer or investor) and compares it with the similar data for several European countries.
Salvi, Marco. "THE DEMAND FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ATTRIBUTES AND HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS: ESTIMATION OF A STRUCTURAL HEDONIC MODEL WITH HETEROGENOUS CONSUMERS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The goal of this paper is the identification and estimation of the demand for environmental amenities and housing attributes as it is revealed by the housing choice of households located in the greater Zurich area. The precise and reliable estimation of the demand for housing attributes and environmental amenities is of prime importance in many environmental and housing issues. Whereas some questions like e.g. the impact of noise on housing prices can be addressed by simply estimating a hedonic model, the valuation of the welfare costs of noise pollution can only be addressed in an economic framework by the estimation of the demand for environmental attributes. In the paper we estimate a structural hedonic model in order to recover the willingness-to-pay for housing characteristics (lot size, living area, quality characteristics), location attributes (topography, neighbourhood quality) and major environmental amenities like the absence of traffic and aircraft noise. The estimation strategy follows the lines of a new methodology first proposed in an industrial organisation context by Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995) that accounts for the heterogeneity of preferences. As in Bajari and Benkard (2002) we consider a setting with a continuum of choices. We are able to recover the distribution of preferences non-parametrically from a single cross-section by imposing restrictions on the utility function of consumers. The estimation is based on an set of 16'000 observations describing housing characteristics and the socio-economic traits of their residents located in the greater Zurich area. The database is provided by a mortgage originator and has been matched with a rich set of environmental attributes of the location through a GIS. The estimated preference parameters will be used in counterfactuals in order to explore important economic and policy questions. For example, we will be able to calculate a partial equilibrium decrease in house value that accompanies a rise in (aircraft) noise in some region holding the sociodemographic characteristics of this region constant. Furthermore, we will compute welfare changes for further housing attributes, like lot size, giving insights for land use policies aimed at protecting open spaces.
Ke, Qiulin, P. Dalton, and D. Isaac. "THE DETERMINANTS OF BUSINESS PERFORMANCE OF ESTATE AGENTS IN ENGLAND AND WALES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The paper uses the data of the moving cost survey from 2003 to 2005 to investigate the factors influencing the business performance of estate agents in England and Wales, based on the theory of market attractiveness and resource-based capabilities. The empirical analysis indicates that the business performance of the estate agents are subject to market environment volatility such as market uncertainly, housing market liquidity and housing prices. The market economic scale, firm size and agent fee have no significant impact on the business performance. The agent fee is positively associated with firm size, market environment and liquidity. The finding also shows that there is existence of geographic variations in business performance and fee level in estate agency industry across the regions. There is no such analysis in this field so far.
Sebastian, Steffen. "THE DISCOUNT PARADOX INVERTED: THE SWISS CASE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In this paper we examine empirically the closed-end fund puzzle for stock quoted Swiss real estate mutual funds in 1970-2003. For this period shares of those mutual funds are predominately quoted with a premium to the net asset value. Using a panel approach we examine whether both the rational and the sentiment approach can help explaining the premium paradoxon. Full paper available at www.real-estate-finance.de (in German).
Gruis, Vincent, and Joris E. Van Wezemael. "THE DUTCH AND THE SWISS: TWO UNITARY RENTAL MARKETS COMPARED ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Within comparative housing studies growing attention is given to the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of various welfare regimes and housing systems (e.g. Kemeny, 1995; Harloe, 1995; Boelhouwer and Van der Heijden, 1992; Kleinman, 1996). In this paper we will attempt to test various theoretical assumptions about characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of different housing systems on the cases of The Netherlands and Switzerland. From a welfare and housing perspective, the Netherlands and Switzerland have much in common. Both countries have been typified as corporatist countries, according to Esping-Andersenís (1990) typology of welfare regimes. And, according to Kemenyís typology, both countries can be characterised by having a unitary rental market. Nevertheless, there are differences as well. From a housing perspective, the most obvious difference is that the main providers on the Swiss rental market are commercial private landlords, while the largest share of the Dutch rental dwellings are owned by not-for-profit social landlords. Therefore, The Netherlands and Switzerland provide interesting cases for further exploration of the characteristics and (dis) advantages of two unitary rental systems in two different shapes. The (interrelated) questions we address in this paper are: * What are the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of various housing systems according to theory and are these reflected in the Netherlands and Switzerland? * What are the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the Dutch and Swiss housing market when we look at indicators of affordability, availability and quality compared with other (dualist) housing systems? What are possible explanations for the differences? Can these be related to the type of (rental) housing system? * What are the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the Dutch and Swiss housing market when we look at indicators of affordability, availability and quality compared with each other? What are possible explanations for the differences? Can these be related to the difference in the main providers (private of social landlords)? // Our paper starts out with a summary of characteristics, advantages and disadvantages for various housing systems according to theories on housing systems, drawing in particular on the work of Kemeny. Then, a general description of the Dutch and Swiss housing systems follows. Subsequently, key characteristics of the Dutch and Swiss housing market are discussed in comparison with other countries and with each other. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the advantages and disadvantages of the Dutch and Swiss housing systems.
Dorenbos, R.J., and E.F. Nozeman. "THE EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY: STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Developers are the engine of the real estate industry. Numerous companies are involved in the process of project and area development. Much has been published on the characteristics of that process. But specific information on the economic and financial aspects of this billion euro business is rare. The development industry seems a black-box both at macro- and at meso-level. This paper aims to shed some light on this ìblack boxî. The main objective of this paper is twofold. First we provide a quantitative understanding of the economic position of the development industry in the EU-15 countries. An international comparison will be made by analysing two large-scale databases on aspects as production value, employment and company size. Secondly, we zoom in on some specific meso-level features of that industry in five European countries, viz France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Characteristics as portfolio composition, market focus, location, type of affiliation will be analysed, based on the 50 largest companies in each country. Perspectives of this industry in the aforementioned countries will be presented based on expert interviews. Our analysis reveals interesting results. On macro level the modest employment figures of the development industry contrast heavily with the size of its spin-off and added value. Moreover the build-up of its workforce differs from the national picture. On meso-level the diversity of the development industry is striking. The location pattern differs considerably between France, Spain and the UK on the one hand and Germany and the Netherlands on the other hand. The difference in economic and political dominance of the capital city may explain this. The portfolio composition shows a wide variety already on national level; allrounders and specialists are both represented. As for the market focus of development companies, we do not only observe differences between companies, but also between countries. A more international orientation dominates in Netherlands and France, in the other countries the focus is more on the national market. In all countries a strong representation of both independants and companies affiliated with construction and financial mother companies has been found. Explanations for differences between countries are assumed. Perspectives reveal interesting trends as a reaction to changes in the business environment. Further research issues in this field will be presented.
Gilles, Patrick, Karsten Junius, and Gunnar Meyke und Subroweit. "THE FUNDAMENTAL DETERMINANTS OF HOUSE PRICE DEVELOPMENTS IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In order to assess whether the steep increase of house prices in several industrial countries in the last ten years constitutes a house price bubble as often mentioned in the press and public debate we analyse the key fundamental determinants of residential house prices. We argue that the often used historic comparisons of simple ratios like the house price/ rent ratio, the house price/ income ratio or the house price/ construction cost ratio are inadequate measures of over- or undervaluated markets. Instead models should be used that capture the interaction of several fundamental determinants and include the impact of interest rates on house prices. We present three such models: In the Dividend Cash Flow Model (DCF) house prices equal the discounted cash flow of all expected future cash flows. Hence, they result from the interplay between current rent levels, expected future growth of rents, risk free interest rates and risk premia for real estate investments. The Affordability Model shows that house prices developments result from the interaction of nominal income growth and changes of real or nominal interest rates. As a third model we use an econometric approach. Using panel regression technics we show that real house prices depend on real construction cost, real rents, real income, real interest rates and the output gap. We apply all three models for ten industrial countries. For each approach we calculate a range of plausibel estimates of under- respectively overvaluation using several plausible assumptions. Overall we come to the conclusion that in most countries house price developments can be explained to a large degree by fundamental factors. However, a significant overvaluation is shown for UK and slight overvaluations result for the US, the Netherlands and Australia. The German and the Japanes house markets appear undervaluated.
Kinzer, Claus-Michael. "THE GERMAN PROPERTY MARKET - HOW TO GET TO INFORMATION? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In Germany data protection is very dominant. The German property market is, as in other countries, not standardized. So the question how to get reliable information as a foreigner is even more important. Especially data protection has not prevented the availability of market data, but as a consequence of the analysis of each purchase contract, by the public experts committees, many qualified indirect comparative data have been published which can be used. In the lecture the published data, as the market reports of the experts committees the market data published by the estate agents associations and other private institutions are presented. It is shown how to use the indirect comparative data in a way corresponding to the market. Apart from this the separate institutions, who publish market data, are presented with contact partners. Indirect comparative data are derived from market data and demonstrated by practical examples. A critical answer is given to the question if the data protection prevents transparency of the market or if it even is able to support it.
Kutsch, Nina. "THE GROWTH OF PRIVATE PROPERTY VEHICLES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. One of the most significant recent shifts in the UK and European commercial real estate markets has been the growth of indirect real estate vehicles. The development of the UK market is a strong example of a European wide trend, which started in the late 90s. The gross asset value (GAV) of indirect vehicles in the UK grew from £13bn in 1991 to £22bn in 1998. Over the following seven years, the GAV more than tripled to £67bn in 2005 (OPC, 2006). Similar trends can be observed in Continental Europe with, for example, Germany growing from Ä9bn in 1991 to Ä85bn in 2005 (BVI, 2006). What is causing this rapid growth both in terms of demand and supply of indirect property products? Drawing upon interviews and a questionnaire survey conducted with major UK institutional investors and their advisors, we investigate the factors that have driven the growth in the indirect market. Approaching the topic from several directions, we analyse the motives of the fund creators as well as the attractions of the market for investors - both within the context of the general investment market. Looking forward, we then conclude with the views of market participants upon the future of the UK indirect market in terms of investment characteristics as well as vehicle structure.
Lee, Stephen. "THE IMPACT OF COUNTRY RISK ON INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE RETURNS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Commercial real estate investors usually have well-established methods to assess the risks of a property investment in their home country. However, when the investment decision is overseas another dimension of uncertainty overlays the analysis. This additional dimension, typically called country risk, encompasses the uncertainty of achieving expected financial results solely due to factors relating to the investmentís location in another country. However, very little has been done to examine the effects of country risk on international real estate returns, even though in international investment decisions considerations of country risk dominate other effects. This study extends the literature on international real estate diversification by empirically estimating the impact of country risk, as measured by Euromoney Country Risk (ECR) data, on the direct real estate returns of 15 countries over the period 1998-2005, using cross section and pooled data analyses. The results suggest that country risk data may help investorís in their international real estate decisions since the ECR index has a significant and consistent impact of return performance.
Chau, K.W., and Zengxiang Jin. "THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF TRANSACTIONS ON THE PROPERTY PRICES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Previous studies on the price-volume relationship focus only on the total volume of transactions without taking into account of the nature of these transactions. While this is a reasonable approach for financial markets, such approach may have ignore some important information in the property market. We examine price-volume relation in Hong Kong property market using transaction based repeat-sales index and volume of different types of transactions. Our study distinguishes itself from others in several ways. Firstly, we have analysed the impacts of three different types of transactions (normal transactions, pre-sale transactions and confirmor transactions) on the transaction prices. Secondly, both the first and second moment effects of volume on prices are examined. Thirdly, we have also tested for structural breaks in the price volume relationships. Our data show that total transaction volume leads price, which is consistent with the search model. We found that pre-sale transactions depress spot market returns while confirmor transactions do the opposite; and that confirmor transactions stabilise property prices while pre-sales transactions increases price volatility. We propose that developerís pricing strategies have played an important role in explaining the effects of presale transaction on the first and second moment of property prices. Developers under-price their unfinished units as a means of promoting sales of their unsold units. Thus, presale transactions have an negative impact on property price returns. However, the extent of under pricing varies across different developers and phases of pre-sale, therefore as the volume of presale transaction increases, the volatility of property prices also increases. Confirmor transactions are speculative forward contract transactions and are priced in the market like other completed units. The stabilising effects of confirmor transactions are consistent with results in finance literature that transactions in the futures market stabilise spot market prices. The positive impact of confirmor transactions on property price returns is due to the incomplete nature of the property market ñ impossibility of short selling. Speculators can only speculate up but not down. We have found structural breaks in the relationships between transaction volume and property prices during the period of Asian Financial Crisis (AFC). The AFC has introduced unexpected exchange rate risks and increased the volatility interest rates. However, the above results are not materially affected by replacing structural break dummy variable with interest rate. The nature of the structural breaks remains an area for further studies.
Campbell, Robert D., Riza Emekter, and Benjamas Jirasakuldech. "THE IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE REIT INDUSTRY ON REIT RETURNS AND VOLATILITY." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. We examine the dynamic behavior of EREIT returns and volatility during the pre- and post-1991 REIT major organizational and structural changes. We find evidence of non-random walk and asymmetric price change pattern, and increases in the EREIT volatility during the 1990s REITs structural shift. EREITs volatilities are time-varying, persistent, and predictable. There is a positive relationship between expected return and expected risk in EREIT stocks in the pre-1991 and the relationship disappears after 1991. We do not find evidence that negative shocks increase the volatility of EREITs in both periods. Finally, we find that changes in EREIT volatility through time can be explained by changes in conditional volatility of macroeconomic fundamental variables. The findings suggest that EREIT exhibit different return and volatility behavior as REIT market has gone through 1991 major changes. Applying the same tests on Russell 2000, a proxy for small stocks, we find that EREIT and small stocks behave differently during the most recent time period.
Erol, Isil. "THE INFLATION-HEDGING PROPERTIES OF REITS IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This study empirically tests the inflation-hedging abilities of Turkish REITs in comparison with Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) stocks over the period 1999:12 to 2004:12. The study is motivated by two factors. First, compared to REITs in developed capital markets, Turkish REITs have some important tax incentives as well as flexibility in managing their portfolios. Second, the Turkish market provides a good opportunity to test the hedging behaviour of real estate stocks under a high inflationary economy. To the best of my knowledge, the current study is the first attempt to evaluate and provide empirical evidence on the inflation hedging properties of Turkish REITs. The hypothesis that the real estate investment hedges against both expected and unexpected inflation is tested by using the methodology of Fama and Schwert (1977) and also the Fisherian Direct Causality model. Expected inflation is measured by two proxies. The lagged returns on 3-month T-bills are taken as the first measure of the expected inflation rate. The second proxy is the one offered by Fama and Gibbons (1982). The expected inflation rate is estimated using the yield on 3-month T-bills. The empirical findings are consistent with the existing studies in the literature, which indicate that REITs possess some hedging ability against inflation. The results show that Turkish REITs, in general, provide a better hedge against both actual and expected inflation than does ISE stock. In particular, the REITs, which mainly invest in residential and office property and projects, offer hedging abilities against inflationary expectations (both expected inflation level and changes in expected inflation). In contrast, ISE stocks act as a perverse hedge against the changes in expectations of inflation. The results also illustrate that neither REITs nor ISE stocks are able to hedge against the unanticipated inflation in a high inflationary environment in Turkey.
Cellmer, Radoslaw, and Andrzej Muczynski. "THE INFLUENCE OF INSTITUTIONAL REAL ESTATE OWNERS ON REAL ESTATE MARKET - CASE STUDY OF OLSZTYN, POLAND ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The development of Polish real estate market is connected with political changes from the end of 80-ties and the beginning of 90-ties last century. Such changes have enabled functioning market economy. Major part of real estate stock, which had previously been owned by Treasury, was transferred to state and local governmental legal persons or was privatised. According to this decision the significant group of units arrived, which nowadays owns huge real estate stock. Among the most important owners that have significant share in real estate stock in Poland can be pointed local government units, state agencies and state enterprises and universities. It should be underlined that despite of well developed organisational structures of such landowners and their real estate properties located all over the country, their activity on real estate market has mainly local scope. Among other landowners playing an important role on local markets in Poland, private enterprises (or with the share of private capital), and higher schools with supporting serving units can be mentioned. Their significance is underlined by the fact that often they are one of the basic factors of local development because of employment structure or new investments. The real estate owners, through the fact of possessing large real estate stock, have some tools and instruments to influence real estate market. Managing real estate supply usually has an impact on shaping certain values and prices on the market. The owners can also have influence on planned investment development, both by making their own investments and attracting other investors with interesting localisation and adequate real estate price. Properly conducted selling politics should be directed on the certain group of purchasers, what indirectly can lead to maintaining and shaping spatial order by developing certain spatial and ownership structure of the cities. The real estate owner, such as local government, also possesses financial instruments to manage the demand, such as taxes, duties, creating special economic zones, and technical-planning instruments ñ change of kind of land use, land consolidation and dividing real estate. It can be assumed, that the activities of large real estate owners can create the basis for positive changes on the area of real estate market influence. This paper is aimed on studying the direction and strength of influence of two large real estate owners on local real estate market in Olsztyn (the capital of Warmia and Mazury voivodship). The first main landowner to analyse is the commune Olsztyn and the second -University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, which is state owned university. These owners, possessing spatially significant real estate stock, have strong impact on the real estate market in Olsztyn. Commune Olsztyn owns over 7 000 flats with total area over 320 000 m2 and land over 4 000 ha, while total area of the city is about 8 000 ha. University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn owns over 6 700 ha of land. What is even more, University owns didactically-research buildings, students dormitories, hotel buildings and 150 flats. University, despite of owning minor real estate stock in comparison to commune, is an important factor of local development, taking into consideration its localisation, size and owning real estate placed in strategic areas of the city, especially in the areas, where the expansion of urbanisation can be noticed. Within this article, detailed analysis of legal and economic conditions, inside of which already mentioned landowners are functioning, and their influence on real estate market would be presented. Specific purposes of researches were mainly: * The analysis of legal rules and practical procedures, as the factor disturbing functioning of the free market; * The analysis of the structure of the real estate offered to sell, let or lease; * The description of the large real estate owners impact on prices and rents on the real estate market;+ The description of the large real estate owners role in creating investment areas with described socially-spatial status. // During researches and analysis both quantity and quality methods were used. The result of the researches is the paper concerning the role and significance of large real estate owners operating on local real estate market.
Sotelo, Ramon. "THE INTRODUCTION OF GERMAN REITS - BEST PRACTISE AND THE POLITICAL SITUATION ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the first part of the paper a Best Practise for German REITs is developed based on the German experience with open ended property funds and property companies as well as on the international experience with REITs on the one side and the new financial category, the room for manoeuvre on the other side. Following the situation in Germany with the different pressure groups, Initiative Finanzplatz Deutschland, BVI, BfW, GdW, Ministry of Finance, Investment Banks, insurance companies, public open ended property funds, and special open ended property funds is illustrated.
Ho, Eric C. K.. "THE LEASEHOLD SYSTEM AS A MEANS OF SUSTAINABLE URBAN PLANNING - A HONG KONG CASE STUDY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper investigates the features of the leasehold system of Hong Kong, which is predicated on the freedom of contract, as an institutional arrangement for urban planning that promotes sustainable development. It further develops the theory of ìplanning by contractî as an alternative to ìplanning by edictî in the sustainable development research arena. This is a conceptual paper that adopts an analytical approach. The concept of property rights as informed by neo-institutional economics is used in examining the institutional features of the leasehold system. Arguments are substantiated with empirical evidence from the 160-year history of leasehold system in Hong Kong and the subsequent statutory planning control since 1939. It is argued that the leasehold system, being a dynamic system that provides (1) certainty to induce long-term investment and planning, (2) a platform for exchanging ideas, (3) a mechanism for changes in land use and (4) an indicator for managing planning activities, exhibits the institutional features that are conducive to sustainable urban planning. The addition of statutory planning control could compromise the features of certainty and adaptability of the leasehold system. This paper analyses the institutional features of the leasehold system that renders it a means of sustainable urban planning and encourages a reinterpretation of statutory zoning in areas with a leasehold system. It also warns against legislative activism in planning controls as that can destroy or erode the certainty of property rights in the land market, which is a basis for sustainable development.
Hordijk, Aart, and Bert J. J. Teuben. "THE LIQUIDITY OF DIRECT REAL ESTATE IN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORSí PORTFOLIOS: THE NETHERLANDS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The liquidity of direct real estate has been surrounded by mystery. Research in the USA and in the UK has contributed much to clarify the liquidity issue of direct real estate. In the Netherlands, not much research exists on this issue; however, a major ALM advisory firm in the Netherlands suggests a liquidity factor of 1,5 times the standard deviation of the ROZ/IPD real estate index, leading to a 50% higher risk compared to the current ROZ/IPD real estate index risk. We will investigate whether this is a reasonable assumption by approaching the issue from several perspectives. First of all, we reviewed the transaction process and the effects of heterogeneity and the size of the property. We will also review the market risk between the date of the decision to sell the property and the date on which it was actually sold. The last element we will review is the reallocation risk, in other words missed opportunities that have arisen because it could take longer to sell property than to sell stocks or bonds. Extensive anonymous information from the main institutional investors in the Netherlands is used, as well as interviews with the main Dutch brokers. The survey is placed in an international context by comparing the results as well as the methods to previous surveys in the UK.
Eni, Sabariah, Zaharah Manaf, and Najib Razali. "THE MANAGEMENT OF PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT RISKS IN MALAYSIA - RISK MANAGEMENT AND THE PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT PROCESS: A REVIEW. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Property development has been a major contributor to the Malaysian economy and ultimately, it has a multiplier effect on other industry which supports property development. The industry is predominantly made up of private companies involved mostly in the residential and commercial development sectors in the Klang Valley. During the financial crisis which hit Malaysia in the late nineties, many property development projects were either abandoned, frozen or the scale was very much reduced. The number of properties categorized as ëover hangí, by the National Property Information Center (NAPIC) of the Ministry of Finance,Malaysia, also indicates that property development is a cyclical business with volatile returns and therefore, it is inherently risky. This lead to the question of: how do property developers manage the multitude of risks which confront them? This study has four objectives: * To identify the property development risks which confront property developers and risks management strategies they adopt; * To identify the more successful property development risk managers; * To apply their risk management strategies into an improvised academic framework; * To assess the implications for the property development industry. // A qualitative research will be carried out by way of a survey of listed property developers and an assessment of their annual reports over a ten-year period, 1994 to 2004. The survey will be designed to identify which are the listed developersí key property development risk and property development risk management strategies. A detailed quantitative analysis of the annual financial statement of these property development companies over the 1994-2004 periods will be prepared, and concentrated on measures of business risk and financial risk. The implication of the property development industry arising from this research is that whether property development risks are well managed and whether the scope of property development operations is a determinant of effective risk management. One opportunity that arises from this research is that there is scope for further research to better align academic theory with applied property risk management and to develop an improved academic framework for property development risk management. This paper reviews previous studies and research done in the management of risk among listed property developers in Malaysia. This paper reviews previous studies and research done in the management of risk among listed property developers in Malaysia.
Bienert, Sven, and Heinz Rehkugler. "THE MORTGAGE LENDING VALUE: PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN EUROPE." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006.

"The construct ""Mortgage Lending Value"" (MLV) is used almost exclusively within the German-speaking countries. In contrast, until today most other countries haven't paid much attention to this value.1 When funding real estate investments, it is in most cases sufficient to calculate the market value (MV) as the basis for lending decisions. Germany is one of the countries with the longest tradition in the mortgage lending business. With the new German law for mortgage lending, the Pfandbriefgesetz (PfandBG), as well as the draft for the additional ordinance for mortgage lending valuations, the Beleihungswertermittlungsverordnung (Bel- Wert),3 the legislation and framework for the preparation of valuations in accordance with the German MLV are presently being amended. In light of the advancing international harmonization4 one might ask which valuation method could be used as a ""best practise"",5 or in other words: Is the German MLV a potential ìexport hitî and, if so, in which way must the idea of a global standard for mortgage lending valuations be adapted to secure a broader acceptance of this practise? It must be stressed that the excellent rating of the German Pfandbrief ñ one of the biggest issuers of long term bonds within the European Union ñ is partly due to the lending proceduresin Germany, where one major aspect is the obligation to calculate an MLV instead of just using the MV for lending purposes. Because of the high security standards and the funding only on the basis of the MLV, some other European countries have already partially adopted the German systems, coming up with comparable laws for mortgage lending and issuing bonds.6 In addition, the approaches for Mortgage Lending Valuations have already been integrated into the European Valuation Standards (EVS) and are mentioned in the International Valuation Standards (IVS). Nevertheless the MLV is not used at all or fully understood in valuator circles, which are mainly under American or British influence. In this paper the authors first of all explain the MLV in consideration of the latest changes in the German legislation. From there the authors move on to compare the German MLV to the system and experiences made in the UK ñ a country which is known to have a long and very professional valuation history ñ and analyse the various sections in the EVS as well as the IVS in terms of valuations for lending purposes. Taking into account the findings, the authors point out that an MLV, which must be independent of an MV, is essential for banks that finance real estate investments by granting loans and thereby using the property for secured lending. On the other hand, findings indicate that instead of the current practise and methods used in Germany to do the calculations and report on the MLV, other approaches could be taken to come up with an information package which will be valuable for the different stakeholders in the mortgage lending business. In this paper the researchers indicate a number of aspects regarding the current German system for MLV which, from their point of view, should be looked at critically. Then the authors develop some first steps towards an MLV which could serve as the basis for an internationally accepted standard for valuations for lending purposes. Therefore they take into account helpful developments in the area of risk management tools, modern valuation techniques as well as the results of the consultation for Basel II.7 On this foundation the most innovative aspect of the paper is the development of a Valueat-Risk approach for the MLV application. Starting with a very theoretical method this approach is also transformed into a method which should be easier used in every-day business. The tremendous significance of this topic can be stressed by looking at the latest initiative of the European Commission (Commission) about the further integration of the European mortgage markets within the Union. In this regard the Commission has until now not been sure whether there should be one new pan-European standard for real estate valuations for mortgage lending.8 Looking at the current situation in the UK and Spain (both residential lending business of the banks),9 where lenders once again do fund just about 100% of the whole investment sum in anticipation of ""eternally rising prices"",10 the concerns of the Commission are certainly not completely unfounded. In addition, in their latest strategic plan for the next couple of years, the International Valuation Standards Committee (IVSC) has also diagnosed a need for action in the field of valuations for lending purposes.11"

Bach, Hansjorg. "THE ÑGEISLINGER KONVENTIONì: A NEW TOOL FOR OPTIMIZING OPERATING COSTS OF RENTAL APARTMENTS. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This paper presents the ìGeislinger Konventionî as a widely accepted tool to optimize the operation costs of rental apartments in the Federal Republic of Germany. For a long period these operating costs have not been in the focus of the housing industry. The estimated amount of Ä 40.000.000.000, - annual costs for the 23.000.000 rental apartments show that it is worthwhile to put strong efforts into this area of Real Estate Management. The ìGeislinger Konventionî was developed by a group of scientist as well as practitioners of the real estate industry and major housing associations. It allows the management of rental apartments to start a benchmarking process. For a better understanding of this problem the paper will introduce in the complicated legal structure of operating costs on which the new developed tool is based on. The paper will show the result of a successful cooperation between the Real Estate Industry, housing associations and the scientific world in developing a new agreement for standards and evaluation for operating costs for Real Estate Management.
Koch, Christian, and Jesper Ole Jensen. "THE PARADOXES OF SMALL PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS: ANOTHER ECONOMY, A LIFE IN A CRADLE OR VOLUNTARY INNOVATION? ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. It is commonly assumed that transaction costs linked to the establishment of Public Private Partnerships, make it prohibitive to make them too small. In a Danish context this has been safeguarded by the authorities, which recommend sizes over 13, 4 million euro (100 million euro). The research behind this paper sets out the challenge this size limit. The paper present quantitative and qualitative material on small PPP on the Italian and British real estate market. It is shown that small PPP (below 13,4 million euro) are widespread in the two investigated countries. It is thus not through databases containing data on realized PPP-s possible to find any lower limit for these established PPPs. This apparent paradox is then qualitatively investigated. Are these small PPP really full blown PPP? It is investigated whether the PPP are really Design, Build, Finance and Operate project and to what extent these small projects are sound businesses and represent operable units for the clients and citizens. Cases are developed within education and healthcare. The analysis suggests that another type of economy apparently is in play. It is thus characteristic within education projects in UK that the largest portion of small PPPs are of a size below 5,4 million roughly reflecting the lower limit of obligatory tendering according to EU-law. Among these there are indeed a good portion of ìrealî PPPs. It appears that local public units endeavour in PPPs because they are attracted by the innovation and the companies partnering with the public side seem for a large part to be willing to see the small projects as an element of a learning process, where special conditions can be defended in order to develop competences (the thesis of the cradle- the special protection PPP). Neither Italy nor UK have sufficiently profound and longitudinal examples to rule out this thesis of ìcradle- conditionsî. In the paper these results is discussed vis a vis the development of the European public sector. It is potentially very important for local small units in the public services if small PPP are feasible. It is thus promising for democracy and participation of citizens for the future.
Fischer, Katrin. "THE PERCEPTION OF THE LIFECYCLE CONCEPT IN PUBLIC REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The lifecycle concept in real estate management is of increasing relevance to owners and users. Especially through public procurement routes such as Public Private Partnerships lifecycle management gets into the focus during project development. But there is also an uncertainty about the efficiency gains through lifecycle management. The aim of this paper is to compare different lifecycle concepts in research literature and to analyse the perception of lifecycle concepts, strategies and instruments in public real estate management. For this investigation a written questionnaire was sent out via email to over 1000 interviews. The target group comprised real estate mangers from cities and districts as well as on federal level from universities and public real estate companies . The results of the study show that awareness of life cycle management is generally present amongst public real estate owners and managers. Although most of the lifecycle management instruments are well known, they are rarely applied in practice. Conclusions of this paper show where the lifecycle concept in real estate management is appropriate and how more value for the different stakeholders by applying lifecycle management can be retrieved.
Lee, Christina, and Deborah S. Levy. "THE POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF QUALITATIVE RESEARCH TO PROPERTY EDUCATION, THEORY AND PRACTICE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Much of the research published in the property discipline consists of work utilising quantitative methods. While research gained using quantitative methods, if appropriately designed and rigorous, leads to results which are typically generalisable and quantifiable, it is not particularly useful when the aim is to gain rich and in-depth understanding of a phenomenon. Such an aim would require using a qualitative research methodology, and a change from the current dominant theoretical perspective, that is, positivism to a more interpretive or subjective theoretical perspective. Many property researchers are reluctant to undertake qualitative research or recognise its potential contribution to the property discipline due to what they consider as a lack of rigour, reliability, validity and generalisability. The purpose of this paper is to discuss how we can achieve rigorous, reliable and valid property research by using an interpretive theoretical perspective and qualitative methodology. This is achieved by describing how a conceptual framework was developed using a case study relating to client influence on valuation. We discuss the reasons for using a constructionist theoretical perspective and case study methodology to overcome some of the problems of previous research using quantitative methodology relating to the reporting of valuation and the lack of understanding regarding the reasons for biases in valuation reports. Using examples from our case study, we discuss the issues relating to generalisibility and trustworthiness and suggest some solutions to these issues.
Lohmann, Tatjana. "THE PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP ACCELERATION LAW IN GERMANY AND ITS EFFECTS ON CURRENT PRACTICE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In 2005 Germanyís government decided a new law to improve the conditions for Public Private Partnerships. Half a year after coming into effect itís time to take stock of the effects on current practice. After a prefacing overview of the current PPP-market in Germany the paper gives a short review of the modifications of seven federal laws which are caused by the acceleration law. As public procurement law is modified the ordering party is now able to use a more liberal procedure to find the best bidder for a planned project. The so-called dialog competition is an achievement for both parties - public and private. As it is less restricted than previous methods it allows modifications and accommodations in required demands during the bidding process. But due to certain unclear phrasings and after the first experiences it seems that the law should be upgraded. Changes in the Bundeshaushaltsordnung - the law that restricts the rights of public authorities - caused that it is now possible to transfer public real estate even if they are further on needed for the fulfillment of public assignments. In combination with the reorganisation of the investment law this means new opportunities and chances for the public real estate market in Germany. The aim of the paper is to assess to what extend the private investor is now able to participate in this market. For that purpose the resumee includes an overview of drawbacks and opportunities connected with the acceleration law and points out suggestions for improvements.
Huang, Hao-Ching Kan- Chung, and Kuang-Yih Yeh. "THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WEEKLY TIME ALLOCATION AND SELF-GRATIFICATION: A CASE STUDY OF TAINAN CITY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The efficiency of time use and its allocation are essential elements in daily life. Meanwhile, rest and balance of spirit are also necessary to keep healthy and to work efficiently. The free time that a person has is normally limited by many essential activities on weekdays, such as work, diet and sleep. Therefore, people will make use of weekends to interact with other family members and to achieve other life aspirations. Consequently, the relationship of time allocation between weekdays and weekends is strong. The relationship between time allocation and self-gratification has a strong effect on planning. For transportation planning or urban planning, it is necessary to analyze time allocation and the activity contents of residents. Then appropriate infrastructure planning and management strategy can be proposed. In this paper, the relationship between time allocation and self-gratification will be observed and some hypotheses will be addressed. Furthermore, those hypotheses will be tested by one-way ANOVA. Then the analysis can be used as a base to develop a structure model of time allocation.
Renigier, Malgorzata Beata, and Ryszard Zrobek. "THE RESIDUALS ANALYSIS AS THE SOURCE DIAGNOSING OF STOCHASTIC FACTORS INFLUENT ON THE REAL ESTATE VALUE ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The value of the real estate underlies to it price formation. Many factors have influence on the value of real estate but there are not only statical (i.e. localization of real estates, technical condition of real estate). Dynamical factors have also influence on the value real estate which are connected with economic, politic and social situation on the market of the real estate. Diagnosing of these factors usually is based on the deterministic theory , with the omission significant meaning, which is delivered by the stochastic theory to the market analysis and valuation of real estate. Stochastic aspects of the real estates value defining are extremely difficult to the proof, especially that it belong to the multiple factors (often egzogenic), dynamical and random. Authors found that the residuals from the model are a simplified representative of stochastic factors influence on the value of real estate, in accordance with a statement that residuals determine the formal measure of differences between specific phenomena and generalizations, give by created models. In this article (that is continuation of the preceding article entitled ÑThe residual from statistical models in valuation and management of real estateî - ERES Dublin 2005r.) will become practical aspects submitted of the interpretation and the application of the analysis residuals in the real estate management, as significant source of information to the estimation of effects of changes on the real estate market and in its environment. Results of analyses will be significant to the delineation and predicting values for different aims (the analysis of the development of the social-economic space, the competitiveness and innovative of regions from expectancy of investors, predicting of results of economic spatial changes on the real estate market. etc.).
Eves, Chris, and Graeme Newell. "THE ROLE OF FARMLAND IN INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. As well as the traditional low-risk core property sectors, investors are now giving increased attention to the property investment opportunities available from higher-risk value-added and opportunistic property. In particular, farmland is seen as a long-term investment which receives investor attention in many countries and potentially provides added value in a portfolio. This paper will analyse the performance of UK farmland over the period 1981-2005. This analysis will assess the total return from rural properties in the UK and compare this performance to commercial property returns (total, office, retail, industrial), equities and gilts over this 25-year period. The analysis will be based on the IPD UK farmland index and the IPD property index. The portfolio diversification and risk-reduction benefits of UK farmland will be highlighted.
De Francesco, Anthony. "THE ROLE OF GEARING IN THE AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY INVESTMENT MARKET. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In an attempt to provide some guidance for ëoptimalí gearing levels, a stylized study was conducted to examine the trade-off between asset return, risk and gearing. The study made use of historical property returns sourced from the PCA/IPD investment index. The study highlights that risk rises with rising gearing levels. A variation in geared returns is caused by the leverage effect on ungeared returns and changes in the cost of debt (or interest rates). The study suggests that current gearing levels in LPTs and unlisted wholesale property funds are relatively conservative. This implies that current gearing could be increased, in particular for wholesale funds, without taking-on substantially more risk whilst enhancing returns. This is further supported when one overlays a benign medium-term outlook on interest rates..
French, Nick, and Laura Gabrielli. "THE ROLE OF VALUATION IN THE EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF PUBLIC PROPERTY - A UK CASE STUDY ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Local Authority Property Management is going through significant changes. Decreasing capital allocations from central government, changes in the population demographics, moves toward service delivery by non-traditional suppliers and local government reorganisation are just a few influences affecting all local authorities. Good management of all local authority owned property assets is of equal importance as the management of other resources within the council. For the effective, efficient and economic delivery of services, it is vital that all property holdings are utilised to the best advantage. This requires that the property provider and the property user are both fully conversant with the value of the property holding and that a rent/charge is made accordingly. The Audit Commission stated that 'good property management' is not an end in itself. It must clearly respond to the policies and objectives of the service areas. These, in turn, will relate to the policies of the council as a whole'. Good property management should also ensure that by identifying the value in use of an asset it will be possible to determine if that property is being used effectively. Properties that are too large for their required use are inefficient, both in terms of annual running costs and, more importantly, in terms of the opportunity cost of capital for the areas which are not used to their full capacity. In addition, there may be further repercussion in other resource areas apart from the property itself: for example; an under-occupied school may still require a fixed number of teachers to deliver an acceptable balance of subjects under the national curriculum, resulting in a staff/pupil ratio lower than the council's standard. Similarly, the physical characteristics of a building might adversely affect the effective delivery of a particular service. For example, a library in a traditional 1930s library building might not be suitable for the new demands placed on the library service due to advances in information technology and a lower quality service might result. This paper looks at the interrelationship between capital valuations and the asset management plan linking together pro-active management with the efficient use of space. Historically, local authorities have adopted a largely passive approach to property management which resulted in a concentration on service delivery whilst ignoring the resource implications. Utilising a cross sectional survey of Local Authorities in England and Wales, the paper identifies areas of concern and conjecture and offers a practical good practice guide to help local authority property professionals manage their property holdings effectively.
Sotelo, Ramon. "THE ROOM FOR MANOEUVRE: A NEW CATEGORY FOR THE UNDERSTANDING OF PROPERTY INVESTMENT VEHICLES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The MM-Theorem and the neoclassical finance theory is still the mainstream within theory of finance. Within this universe finance does not matter. Several approaches coming form agency theory have included incentives to overcome problems connected with information asymmetry and moral hazard. Williamson has built up a theory of finance putting asset specifity in the centre of his argumentation, explaining the use of equity and debt in corporate finance. Hence, with this instruments we are not able to discriminate different investment vehicles like private equity, open ended funds, closed ended funds, and REITs. Neither neoclassical finance theory nor Williamsons approach can explain, e.g. why open ended funds have been more successful in Germany than property companies, which were tax transparent like REITs till the tax reform for corporation of the years 1999/2000. This paper includes a new dimension called the room for manoeuvre, developing a theory of financed based on the idea, investment vehicles, which can be seen as financial institutions, give a certain room for manoeuvre from the investor (principal) to the management (agent). The optimal room for manoeuvre depends on the necessary room each business needs. As capital costs depend on the room for manoeuvre for agency reasons, a big room for manoeuvre leads to high capital costs, e.g. the case of property companies, while a small room for manoeuvre leads to low capital costs, e.g. the case of open ended funds or Japanese REITs. Therefore there is depending on the business an optimal room for manoeuvre in the way, the principal chooses an investment vehicles which has the exact room necessary for the business. If the room is to high, there is a discount between the market capitalization of the liabilities of the investment vehicle to the net asset value of the assets financed through the vehicles. If the room is to small, the assets can not be treated in a proper way with the same consequence. This new approach has a number of applications within real estate finance, and is apt also to elaborate best practise for the construction of German REITs.
Dixon, Timothy. "THE UK PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY AND SUSTAINABLE URBAN BROWNFIELD REGENERATION: AN ANALYSIS OF CASE STUDIES IN THAMES GATEWAY AND GREATER MANCHESTER ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The UK property development industry is a key player in regeneration projects, which conventionally have been focused around area-based initiatives. Emerging policy has attempted to interlink a ësustainable developmentí agenda with a ësustainable brownfieldí agenda. These twin policy agendas, based on further normative policy aspirations, have found an additional focus through the UK governmentís ëSustainable Communities Planí, predicated on the drive to provide additional housing (underpinned by the Barker Review), and engender market renewal in key areas in England. This paper examines the emergence of these agendas and related policies, and analyses the role of the property development industry in the regeneration of six key brownfield sites, based in Thames Gateway and Greater Manchester. The paper investigates the perceived ësustainabilityí of these projects, in terms of key aspects of the ëtriple bottom lineí approach and the development of a related conceptual model, and highlights key lessons emerging from the experience of developers, and their engagement and dialogue with other stakeholders in the brownfield regeneration process on these case study sites. The research adopts an inductive approach, based on more than 50 structured interviews with a variety of stakeholders, including developers, planners, consultants, and community representatives. A key message emerging from the research is that although the property development industry is coming to terms with brownfield risks, including contamination, major policy barriers are hampering effective regeneration. Furthermore, resolving other issues, relating to density and infrastructure, are key to successful brownfield regeneration. Finally, a developerís checklist is formulated as a result of the research, to highlight perceived emerging ëbest practiceí, and related policy implications, in sustainable brownfield regeneration. The research is based on the latest findings from an EPSRC-funded research project based at Oxford Brookes, and which is part of the SUBR:IM programme of research.
Koppels, Philip W., and Jo P. Soeter. "THE UNBALANCED OFFICE MARKET ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Since 2001 the Dutch office market is dominated by oversupply. The huge office construction output could not be absorbed by the space market. This led to a high vacancy of newly constructed offices and a dramatic decline of further office construction. At the demand side office employment and the amount of square meters per full time equivalent office user are declining. Since 2003 the demand for expansion of the office stock is less than zero. All market absorption of newly constructed offices is used for replacement. Vacancy is gradually shifting from the first hand to the second hand office stock. The vacancy of existing offices is about 12% of total stock and another 3% is vacancy of newly constructed offices. The asset market did not react on the worsened market with higher target yields. They seem to compensate vacancy and rental risks with low real cost of ownership due to low real interest. The relation chain from space market to asset market and to construction market ultimately leads to an unbalance of supply and demand of stock. The oversupply of offices is an advantage for users, but from social, environmental and owners/investors point of view the financial and social loss is a growing problem. From Dutch point of view modelling the office market has to be refined for price inelasticity of space demand, non-rational target yields, weak influence of construction market conditions and segmentation of the office stock.
Evgenij, Rossoha, Rusiyanov Leonid, and Nikolai Siniak. "THE VALUATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PROPERTY IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF BELARUS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The Belarusian real estate market is considered to date back to the years 1991/1992, when ownership reform enacted the private ownership of flats. Real estate services, including buying and selling, valuations and management, were started in Belarus in 1992. Over the last ten years, the amount of valuations has increased rapidly due to the fast development of the real estate market. Today the major clients for valuations are banks, owners and investors; and the most commonly assessed value is the market value. The paper analyses the opportunities and problems of using different valuation methods in transition economy. The widely used methods for estimating the market value are the sales comparison approach and the income approach. The comparison approach is used more to estimate the market value of dwellings and land. The use of this method is limited in the case of income-producing property, because the number of transactions is very small. Analysis of valuation reports shows that the yield rate and capitalisation rate have been misused to estimate the market value. The paper concentrates on how to find the capitalisation rate using different methods and the investigation of the effect of the results on the assessment of market value. The paper also analyses the opportunities and problems of property management in transition economy from the grows of investment value point of view.
Assimakopoulos, V., A. Litsa, and E. Pagourtzi. "THETA MODEL FORECASTS REAL ESTATE VALUES ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The paper compares time series techniques that were used to forecast housing prices in UK, both at each region separately and as a whole. The tool used to provide forecasts is Theta Forecaster, a forecasting information system designed and developed at the Forecasting Systems Unit of National Technical University of Athens. This tool includes the Theta Model and several others, well-established forecasting methods. Theta Forecaster allows the combination of two or more techniques, which in many cases produces better forecasts than using a stand-alone method. The main feature of the Theta Model is that it applies different techniques to deal with sort-term and long-term forecasts and allows giving different weights in the sort and long-term components. The results show that Theta is always among the best forecasting methods and in many cases the most accurate one. The time series data used for forecasting is provided from the Halifax House Price Index, the UK's longest running monthly house price series covering the whole country from January 1983. The UK Index is derived from the mortgage data of the country's largest mortgage lender, which provides a robust and representative sample of the entire UK market. There are a number of national indices covering different categories of buyers (all, first-time buyers and home-movers) and houses, concerning the age (all, new and existing) and the type (all, detached, flats etc) of property. Regional indices for the 12 standard planning regions of the UK are available on a quarterly basis, while nationwide indices are produced monthly as well.
Borchert, Axel. "TOWARDS MARKET TRANSPARENCY FOR INVESTMENTS: LOCATION ANALYSIS WITH NEW GIS-TOOLS AND DATA SETS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The past years have seen an impressive run on the German real estate market by foreign investors. These market players from many different countries are frequently not familiar with the local real estate situation. The demand for retail objects is increasing, from new discounters to large shopping centers, as well as DIY and furniture superstores, fast-food-outlets and many other branches of business. The investors, their banks, their real estate consultants and chartered surveyors, they all need an accurate market knowledge concerning the comparative situation and the customer potentials. Special companies collect systematically data from store. The data is integrated in the new GIS software and its connected database which permits a very professional competition analysis. Specific tools have been especially developed for the market analysis of retail objects and other chains. The presentation will show the easy way to integrate market data from different sources in a GIS, and how the user can obtain comparable results in the market by one click. Even the simulation of the turn-over for any location is possible due to the market data combined with these new software-tools. The example are based on the best practice experiences in cooperation with chartered surveyors and retail chains. The result of these location analysis and valuations provide new market insights and trends to international investors and their financing institutions.
Bauer, Rob, Piet M. A. Eichholtz, and Nils Kok. "TRANSPARENCY AND FIRM VALUATION: THE REIT-EFFECT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. This research exploits the experimental laboratory offered by REITs by investigating how REIT corporate governance affects performance. We follow Gompers, Ishii and Metrick (2003) and use a corporate governance index to measure the overall impact of corporate governance on various measures of firm performance, including long-term stock performance, Tobinís Q and return on equity. Using an index has the merit of including the effects of all individual governance mechanisms in one single number (Black, Jang and Kim 2005; Boehren and Oedegaard 2003). Moreover, we do not rely on self-constructed measures, but we use unique and rich indices provided by Governance Metrics International (GMI) and Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS). Finally, we not only compare whether well-governed REITs outperform poorly-governed REITs, but our dataset also allows us to determine whether the distinct governance characteristics of REITs increase or decrease agency costs and thereby performance, by making comparisons between US REITs, a matched sample of US non-real estate firms and a sample of UK real estate firms.
Keeris, Willem G., and Philip W. Koppels. "UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE VACANCY RATE IN THE DUTCH OFFICE MARKET, DUE TO THE DIFFERENT VACANCY TYPES AND STRATIFIED STRUCTURE. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The increasing vacancy in the Dutch office market is a socially undesirable development. One solution might be to take unlettable properties off the market by converting them into housing; but for this _ or any other solution _ to be effective, the general vision of the market needs to be improved. Despite the increased vacancy level, only a brief downturn has appeared in current cycle. Theoretically, it will take a long time to clear the current amount of supply. Rapid recovery depends on two market processes: tenants who move from older to newer office premises and investors who sell off the older properties in their portfolio and invest in newer ones. The life cycle of an investment property thus involves a succession of tenants and also of buyers and sellers. The perception of the market, however, is dominated by the role played by institutional investors at the head of the latter chain. Even though their ëareaí accounts for only a limited part of the market, people still refer to ëthe marketí when speaking of that specific part of the whole. This is a misperception, which distorts the composition of the total market. A more accurate view can be derived by drawing a clear distinction between different types of vacancy.
Brown, Louise, Kenneth Gibb, and Stanley McGreal. "UNDERSTANDING THE HOUSING MARKET IN NORTHERN IRELAND: AN EXPLORATORY APPROACH ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Policymakers and practitioners have specific research needs that can be at odds with the academic model. Housing market analysis is readily caught up in theoretical, econometric and other minutiae when what is often required is a clear explanation of market drivers, or the influence of new policies on markets, or the spatial and vertical distributional impacts of market processes and policies. Critically, housing policy, especially concerning resource-critical decisions, needs relevant and credible evidence positioned within a coherent but intuitive framework. In this paper, we explore the application of one such framework to the distinctive Northern Ireland housing market. The paper begins with a profile of the Northern Ireland housing market, drawing on existing evidence and received stylised facts about the market and its institutional setting. The second section introduces Local Housing Systems Analysis ñ a technique developed in Scotland to provide a consistent framework for organising data to inform housing investment decisions across local authorities. A key requirement to conduct meaningful research is data and the paper reports a housing data audit for Northern Ireland and reflects on its findings. The third section of the paper draws on relevant housing economics literature and secondary data from Northern Ireland to link together the LHSA framework with direct questions of practical relevance concerning affordability, housing supply and forms of market intervention. The final section concludes first by examining what we know and what we do not or cannot know about the Northern Ireland housing market at this point, raising an agenda for further research to strengthen the evidence base. Second, the conclusion reflects on different ways in which housing research can provide policy-relevant tools and mechanisms with which to analyse local and regional markets.
Waters, Mike, and Nikos Karadimitriou. "URBAN BLIGHTS TO NORTHERN LIGHTS? THE EFFECT OF AUTONOMOUS SPECULATIVE INVESTMENT IN UK HOUSING MARKET RENEWAL AREAS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. The UK has in excess of one million homes affected by low demand, a figure that represents approximately five percent of Englandís housing stock. High levels of multiple deprivation, increased vacancy and negative perception intrinsically plague many of these communities. At the forefront of initiatives addressing low demand is the Housing Market Renewal (HMR) Pathfinder scheme, a government policy designed primarily to improve market conditions in the north of England. The HMR is also addressing the issues of low value, dilapidation and diminishing population. The principal aim of this research is to offer preliminary findings to examine the extent to which autonomous speculative investment is contributing to the objectives within the HMR programme, with specific reference to Manchester. Manchester has undergone a massive amount of economic restructuring since the 1970ís that has given rise to both a population decline and an increased number of derelict land and buildings in some parts. In recent years, property values have fallen and the rate of abandonment has increased, with negative equity being a harsh reality for many homeowners. The lack of quality homes and uniformity in the housing stock, plus social problems of high crime and unemployment, are seen as threatening the drive towards delivering sustainable communities within these areas. Residential development in the city centre has been a strong impetus to improving the housing stock across its inner core. Investors have responded well to the opportunities available in residential regeneration of UK city centres, and Manchester has been no exception. Investment in Manchesterís housing has largely been driven by the growth in population of young professionals as a consequence of recent booms in finance and business services employment. This quantitative paper analyses a wide range of economic and development statistics, including an examination of planning data and property sales over time. These findings will be supported by a number of structured interviews with key investment companies, in order to gain a firm insight into the potential impact speculative investments are having upon Manchesterís HMR. The results of this paper will highlight the role speculative investors are playing in initiating new residential development across Manchester and the planning data analysis contained within this report shows that following the introduction of the HMR initiative in 2003, this has increased. Evidence also suggests that a major driver of house price increases, in many low demand areas across the North, is the buy-to-let market. Many investment companies have been established in Northern England to benefit from the anticipated booms within these areas as house prices become increasingly unattainable in London and the South East. As a result of these trends, many aspects of the UK sustainability agenda are under threat, none more so than affordability. Whilst, affordable housing is an essential requirement of the Sustainable Communities Plan, the predominance of speculative investors in the HMR areas is appearing to impede negatively upon its progress, with house prices continuing to rise beyond the reach of many low to middle income groups. These findings have important ramifications for UK regeneration policy related to the governmentís Housing Market Renewal programme.
Jones, Colin. "URBAN ECONOMIC CHANGE AND PROPERTY INVESTMENT ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Decentralisation of economic activities and population suburbanisation has transformed the spatial structure of cities in the UK over the last thirty years. As part of this process new property forms have evolved including retail parks, out of town shopping centres and office parks. The paper examines the consequences for the property market and institutional property investors that have traditionally viewed property as a long term investment medium. The analysis begins by considering the context of urban economic change. The heart of the research examines the development of investment markets for new property forms including changes in comparative rents and yields and the adaptation of institutional attitudes and property portfolios. The empirical analysis is primarily based on data from IPD. The research will develop previous theoretical work by the author on the process by which ënewí (sustainable) property markets are established. This earlier work focused on new housing for sale in city centres and public sector housing estates and was published in Urban Studies (1996) and European Journal of Housing Policy (2002). The process was also considered in a paper on industrial markets in a paper in the Journal of Property Research (2003). This paper extends the approach to commercial property markets. The analysis examines the interaction of time series of rents, yields, development and institutional portfolios.
Marston, Andrew, Kim Politzer, and Jo Warren. "USING OCCUPIER SURVEYS AS AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE OFFICE DEMAND: THREE SURVEYS IN LONDON AND SOUTH EAST ENGLAND ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. An appreciation of occupier demand in local office markets is of vital importance in understanding those markets for property investors. The use of employment statistics and forecasts has been used extensively in order to measure the demand for property, in particular office property. They have then been integrated into property forecasting models of local and national markets. Such models attempt to measure market demand by use of widely available macroeconomic statistics. However it is essential that such forecasts are placed into some context. Surveys of occupier intentions can be a useful tool in guiding and explaining the outputs of real estate market models. Regular surveys of businesses now form a key element of the armoury of the economist being used along side the army of official macroeconomic statistics. Prominent examples of such surveys include the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), produced by NTC Economics for the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Royal Bank of Scotland and the CBI and PricewaterhouseCooperís quarterly Financial Services Survey. Both attempt to measure market confidence across a number of indicators by opinion based surveys. However, the use of comparable survey techniques in the property sector is limited. The RICS undertakes a survey of its members in order to monitor market confidence in both the residential and commercial sectors, but crucially this involves interviews with intermediaries, not occupiers themselves. In addition there is the CBI / GVA Grimley Survey of Property Trends which is national in focus and is limited in its local market application. There are examples of other surveys but they are often ad-hoc and responsive in nature, oriented towards the impact of specific factors on the office market (e.g. new technology, new legislation, environmental regulations etc.). This paper aims to show the importance of occupier surveys in aiding the immediate understanding of local markets and the trends that could be expected over short and medium term outlooks. It uses, as examples, evidence from a series of such surveys conducted between September 2004 and September 2005 in three different office submarkets in order to provide a clearer picture of the potential demand for office space over a three year timeframe. The three studies were: * a survey of banks in the City of London; * a survey of occupiers across multiple sectors in the West End of London; and, * a survey of information and communications technology (ICT) occupiers in the South East of England. // All three surveys had a core aim of examining the potential for growth in demand for office space from companies. In addition each survey explored factors relating to the drivers of this growth and the attractiveness or otherwise of the local market under investigation. The central findings from the surveys will be outlined in the paper, providing the first opportunity to compare and contrast the studies. The paper will conclude with the lessons learnt from the surveys and the benefits attained from their undertaking.
Gabrielli, Laura, and Giuliano Marella. "VALUATION CRITERIA IN ITALIAN PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP (PPP) ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. In the last decade, Italian laws have introduced a number of important instruments to overcome the division between the commissioning and the delivery of public works in the urban planning process. The first step in this direction was made by the Law 179/1992 that introduced Urban Renewal Plans. These plans are an attempt to bring together public and private finances in order to boost the construction and the management of public works, so as to deliver a strategy for delivering high quality public services. Other initiatives such as STU (Society for Urban Transformation) and PFI (Project Finance Initiative) allow, with the use of private investment, a strong link between the conception and the construction of public works. This also encourages the involvement of private sector expertise by utilising the management skills and financial acumen of the business community. However, these initiatives do not solve some of the crucial problems facing the public sector, such as: * They do not provide investors with a full financial breakdown of the projects but give only some indicative estimates; * They do not indicate how to quantify the economic indicators such as costs, revenues, investment decision techniques that can help the private sectors to evaluate the profitability of investments. // The aim of this paper is to define a model for decision makers, both for the public and the private sector, in order to determine transparent and clear criteria to evaluate any collaboration between public bodies, such as local authorities or central government, and private companies.
Trifonov, Nikolai. "VALUATION IN EMERGING MARKETS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Methodology of valuation and practice of appraisersí communities in stable economies are well-known. An appearance in the end of last century the countries with developing, emerging market, forces the creation of appraisersí communities in these countries, elaboration and use of new valuation methodology and practice. The practices and methods, which were developed for and reflect the conditions of well-developed market economies, have had to be adapted to economies in transition. In the paper an attempt to aggregate such peculiarities on the base of countries of central and eastern Europe is set forth. The main of the same concerns about valuation in the transitioning economies of other part of Europe and the world. At last, rather recent scandals in the USA with Enron company etc. have shown, among other, that absence of the account of features of an appraisal in situation of emerging market attracts sometimes to a catastrophic consequence. So-called ´White documentª, the comment to International Valuation Standards, devoted to a valuation in the emerging markets, draws attention to necessity of use of the standard of market value and describes difficulties of appraisal activity in these conditions, not giving recommendations on their overcoming. The purpose of the present report are put, is an attempt of more practical approach. Attention is focused now on finalizing professional standards of valuation. These standards, in large part, are modeled on the International Valuation Standards of the International Valuation Standards Committee (IVSC). Other international valuation standards such as European Valuation Standards 2003 developed by the European Group of Valuersí Association (TEGoVA), those established by the Appraisal Institute, The Appraisal Foundation (Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice [USPAP]), and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors are less influential. In many countries professional societies practice in accordance with international and have not developed standards of their own. Valuers in these countries need to gain a wide range of appraisal experience and to refine their methodology based on their international experience. Supporting these efforts is membership in international societies such as IRES, TEGoVA, and IVSC, which gives appraisers an opportunity to participate in international professional activities and to receive training and information from the worldwide community of valuers. Nevertheless the existing international valuersí organizations are not enough. As a result, a new international association of valuers named ìCounsil of Valuersí Associations of the C.I.S.î has founded with the aim to elaborate a valuation standards for transition economies. Appraisal practices in transitioning economies are usually based on modified versions of three well-known approachesócost, income, and comparative. In urban areas the residual method is used to provide the best estimate of the market value of the land. Establishing the unit of currency to be used in an appraisal is of great importance. Typically in countries under investigation there are effectively different exchange rates for same currency. It is critical, therefore, for a valuer to choose a monetary unit that is adequate to the market of object of a valuation. Economies in transition present some unusual subjects for valuation such as unfinished construction, tenant contributions for improvements due to reconstruction, obligations such as debts, damages, and services. These subjects require special valuation methods. A valuation in conditions of transition economy is made by traditional methodological approaches (by cost, income and comparative ones). We shall discuss features of their realization in concrete methods below, and now we shall note, that by virtue of unreliability of market data the appraisal should be executed by means of a maximum of accessible approaches, generally by all three. The nature of unreliability of data in each of approaches is various, therefore application of all approaches for a valuation of the same objects compensates lacks of each of them. As consequence, arises a problem of the reconciliation of different approaches, practically not mentioned in traditional appraisal textbooks. For this purpose are applied methods which are not changing results of separate approaches (method of weighted average, multicriteria (ìmatrixî) method, expert method, and method on the base of common approach), as well as the method of self-reconciliation (ìbootstrapî), using results of separate approaches in dynamics. Notes on the three primary approaches to value in countries with economies in transition: Cost approach. Data on local construction costs lags behind that of western European and North American countries by 10ó15 years. In many cases, construction operations are paid for in cash. In countries of the former USSR, construction indices were not published in the first half of the century so the base costs of construction now used are from 1984 or 1991. In Germany base costs from 1913 are still used. Income approach has undergone two modifications (static and dynamic). The first modification is direct capitalization and the second is DCF techniques. Valuers usually use both techniques for the initial iteration and for verification of the results. In the direct capitalization of businesses, optimization methods can be used. Inflation and other significant risks make it necessary to use variable rates in the discounting procedure, especially over a long period. Generally, though, the return time for many investments is shortóabout three to four years. Comparative approach. The absence of a real market usually gives rise to the use of sophisticated probability procedures and numerous adjustments. High inflation makes it necessary to be extremely diligent in monitoring the market. Valuation activity in emerging markets has a number of essential features, on some of which we stopped above. Ignoring of it can lead to reception of obviously incorrect results. These features are so important, that it is correctly to reflect them in valuation standards. With this purpose a creation of regional valuation standards is expediently. That we named as features of valuation in emerging markets, can be shown in any country in the separate markets during separate time.
Cameron, Gavin, John Muellbauer, and Anthony Murphy. "WAS THERE A BRITISH HOUSE PRICE BUBBLE? EVIDENCE FROM A REGIONAL PANEL ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Many observers, including the OECD are alarmed by the seeming bubble type behaviour of British house prices. This paper investigates with a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment and interaction effects between an index of credit availability and real and nominal interest rates. The model explains periods of boom and bust in the British housing market, as well as the ripple effect from the London housing market to the rest of the country. The evidence suggests that so far there has been no significant bubble in the British housing market in the new millenium but cannot rule out some bubble behaviour in 1988-9.
Dascher, Kristof. "WHY DEMOLISH? : EAST GERMANYíS VACANT HOUSING. ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Close to 1,4 million flats are vacant in East Germany. Demolition is widely believed the adequate response. This paper argues that letting rents fall should be more attractive. Falling rents would permit households to reclaim, and hence benefit from, todayís vacant housing. Far from preventing, todayís abundant vacant housing could actually set off, urban redevelopment in East Germany.
Rottke, Nico B., and Julia Gentgen. "WORKOUT MANAGEMENT OF NON PERFORMING LOANS - A FORMAL MODEL BASED ON TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. As German banks are currently facing the new regulations of Basel II as well as strong global competition, non and sub performing loans have risen to a subject of high interest in German banks. The German press pays high attention to the topic and the constantly growing non performing loan market. Nevertheless, academic research in this field is limited. Therefore, this paper asks the question of the optimal management of distressed loans and reformulates it into the problem of the vertical boundaries of companies. The objective of the paper is to give a recommendation to German bank to solve their non-performing loan problem in terms of the organisational structure of the workout management. From a bankís perspective, organisational integration or disintegration of workout management of non-performing real estate loans is transferred into a make- or buy decision of the transaction cost economies. Transaction cost economics are used in order to analyse under which circumstances * ìmakeî (own work out department of a bank) or * ìbuy/sellî (external servicer, investor) options are dominant strategies for German banks in order to solve the non performing loan problem. // A formal transaction cost based model analyses which parameter decide on the optimal organisational structure of the workout management. The degree of specificity of required investments and knowledge can be identified as a key decision variable in a formal model based on the transaction cost economics.
Voß, Oliver. "YIELD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN OFFICE MARKETS ALONG TIME: ECONOMETRIC PANEL ANALYSIS ." In Book of Abstracts: 13th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Weimar, Germany, 2006. Many European investment markets for properties have seen an enormous imbalance between demand and supply in the last years, causing a dramatic decrease in prime office yields until recently. Theoretically, the acceptance of generally lower yields can be explained by structural changes in investorsí behaviour, e.g. a shift in their preferences towards income-generating assets, and by the expectation of a cyclical upswing in the letting sector (lower vacancy risk, rental growth). Abstracting from the general trend, nevertheless the question remains unanswered in how far current yield levels are justified in each single property market. The application of econometric methodology is very effective in this context: It serves not only to test the theoretical hypothesis discussed in the literature, but as well is able to indicate on the base of forecasts (ex ante or ex post) if certain markets are overpriced or not. In the context of European markets, the use of panel methods proves especially suitable: Both the yield evolution in specific markets along time as well as the differences in national and regional yield levels can be investigated and explained within one single model at the same time. In the concrete case, such a panel model is derived on the base of time series data for over 30 European office markets. The estimation is based on a GLS specification using estimated cross-section residual variances to take into account cross-section heteroscedasticity. Prime office yields are explained by the achievable income returns of other assets, by the situation and perspective of the letting sector, by characteristics of the regional property market and by the institutional framework of the countries involved. Markets with a supposed mispricing of yields can be identified on the basis of econometric ex-post- or ex-ante-forecasts.