Keywords Abstract
Beyerle, Thomas. "10 years of real estate research in Germany, From market and location analysts to global information strategists?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. "When introducing oneself with the professional designation ""real estate researcher"" two quite different reactions are encountered. One is a gratifying nod from those active in the property sector, allowing the thought to be read, ""Oh yes, researchers compile market reports"". The second, often a somewhat blank look signifying chiefly ""Oh? I've never heard of that job"". Regardless of which reaction is to be expected, a further series of questions or attempts at clarification is prompted. To some extent, the research landscape in Germany is anything but uniformly structured: Concepts, demarcations and functional or professional structures are so differentiated that, so far, no structural or scientific analysis of the subject has taken place. And that is surprising in a field of research whose existence, in the final analysis, is justified by its approach to research. And from this, at least, the present author has to derive his justifiable and fundamental concern to address the subject. Building on a statistical survey carried out for the first-time on the subject of real estate market research, the aim is to bring more transparency into this important but often unknown field of market research in Germany."
Couchman, Naomi, and Tsolacos Sotiris. "A Cross Sectional Study of Retail Yields Across the UK." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In 2001, equivalent yields in the UK retail market varied between 6.5% and 10.5%. These yield differentials reflect diverse income growth potential and risk factors that are priced differently in different retail markets. Pricing factors that determine yields across markets is an exercise most useful for property investors. Not only they can make decisions based on the most influential factors but also they can identify markets which are under-or over-priced after taking into account a wealth of data. The analysis can extend further to identify whether all cities are explained by the same group of socio-economic, demographic and location specific factors. This study constructs a cross-sectional model of UK retail yields. Yield differentials across centres are examined with respect to rent variation and an extensive database that contains economic, social and location specific information. A number of commonly used statistical tests are applied to select the factors that are systematically priced across markets. At the second stage of this research, further analysis is performed using principal components and factor analysis techniques. This is to reinforce the findings in the first stage and identify factors that are more relevant to specific groups of cities. Therefore, risk variables are grouped where possible into a number of factors common to all retail locations. Unique factors are also identified that are market specific. Statistical analysis of clustering is applied and locations are grouped according to shared characteristics.
Marcato, Gianluca. "A Framework to Extrapolate Direct Property Performance from Vehicle-based Indices." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Several papers address the issue of price discovery in real estate markets and propose different models to analyse the information content included in vehicle-based indices. Moreover, the finance literature has recently developed the understanding of the impact of illiquidity costs on the general market and securities equilibrium. This paper applies a CAPM framework and demonstrates the existing relationship between values of geared and ungeared companies when net returns are used. We also prove that the tax shield decreases when the spread between illiquidity costs of equity and debt markets increases. In a real estate context, we finally propose a model to transform indirect into direct performances, by adjusting for leverage and illiquidity factors. This model can be easily applied to market with thin information to obtain a proxy for historical direct market performances.
Peltola, Risto. "A GIS Tool for Transparent Real Estate Market Analysis." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. A GIS Tool for Transparent Real Estate Market Analysis A GIS tool to analyse real estate market has been built on MapInfo. Such a tool is of considerable potential value for real estate agents, valuators, consultants, facility management, construction industry, banking or even an accidental person having to make a transaction. The tool has these characteristics, some standard, some subtler: Search tools. There are standard search tools to find out the essential transactions (e.g. those needed in a comparative sales method) and characteristics of those transactions. A set of transactions can be found in several ways: by pointing on a map, by characteristics of transactions or simply by a list of numbers identifying the transactions. Thematic maps. The tool becomes more powerful as a set of thematic features is introduced. Most suitable attributes to be emphasized in a visual way are those measuring the volume and value of a transaction: floor space, unexpoited building right and unit prices of the two. Specifics for residential real estate market. The tool offers detailed information on market conditions on all phases of housing production chain: market for undeveloped land, market for housing lots and market for houses. The spatial interdependences are made visible. As there are more than a thousand annual transactions of residential real estate, a hedonic approach is also included: Statistical analysis. Standard statistical analysis is exploited measuring the impact of time and macrolocation on the unit price of housing lots, and the impact of those two plus age and size of building on the unit price of floor space of houses. A comprehensive model between market price and technical value of real estate is included. Spatial interpretation of hedonic models: The residual between actual and estimated prices are visualized, and thematic map reveals relevant phenomena on the impact of micro-location on the value of real estate. By simultaneous use of thematic mapping and hedonic analysis the tool offers a picture on real estate markets which captures the trends as well as the details, the picture being both illustrative and transparent. A case study of Helsinki Metropolitan area real estate market is presented, where the following submarkets are analysized: land for housing, single-family houses, industrial units and office/commercial units. Questions on access to data, price of data and other obstacles to transparency are also addressed.
Barthélémy, Fabrice, Michelangeli Alessandra, and Trannoy Alain. "A Hybrid Housing Price Index for Paris." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Oxley, Michael, Golland Andrew, and Weston Richard. "A methodology for assessing the economic viability of urban housing development." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper reports on an ESRC funded research project Assessing the Viability of Urban Housing Development. ESRC Award Reference Number: R000223799. The Urban Task Force report Towards an Urban Renaissance (DETR, 1999) made many detailed proposals for improving the quality of urban living and the sustainability of urban development. In order, specifically, to achieve a target of 60% of house building on previously developed land it urged the government to ÏOblige all local planning authorities to carry out regular urban capacity studies on a consistent basisó. In Tapping the Potential: assessing urban housing capacity: towards better practice (DETR, 2000) a review of published housing capacity studies concluded that studies of physical availability produce an ÎunconstrainedÌ capacity figure and that to predict how much of the unconstrained capacity will be developed some ÎdiscountingÌ is required. This discounting includes a consideration of the market viability of the housing. It is evident from the studies reviewed that current economic evaluations are sometimes completely absent or are afterthoughts to a physical capacity study driven by design considerations. The economic evaluation is then somewhat cursory in nature. For example by ranking sites according to developer preferences or simply formulating ÎoptimisticÌ and ÎpessimisticÌ scenarios about market conditions. The ESRC funded research aimed to develop a methodology for assessing the economic viability of urban housing opportunities identified as part of urban capacity studies. This paper reviews both the ÎtheoryÌ and the ÎpracticeÌ of assessing economic viability. The methodology adopted and applied in the research proposes that viability can be judged from indicative residual values for identified sites. The values are generated from secondary data informed by professional opinion.
Fisher, Peter. "A Multi-disciplinary Approach to Property Development." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The built form of a city is a legacy of past property development, yet the processes that lead to particular developments in time and space are complex and the stakeholders numerous. The paper briefly reviews major themes in the literature and argues that a multi-disciplinary approach can add to knowledge of how development systems work. Model builders have often used diagrams to illustrate their concepts though as detail inevitably increases these lose focus. A previous paper called for new software, designed to help untangle the relationships and heterogeneity of the development process. As a step along that road, a model has been built on a web platform using hyperlinks to trace the interactions. The paper describes how the website tracks the complex and overlapping sets of relationships that typically exist between elements of the process such as markets, institutions and events. The model consists of 7 defined major elements and 51 defined subsidiary elements. The latter are functionally inter-linked by a dense web of described input-output relationships. The operation of the web-model is examined in using three recent case studies located in the Grainger Town area of Newcastle upon Tyne, UK. It is argued that the web-model presented has potential to integrate disparate forces leading to property development and that further refinement is justified.
Nordvik, Viggo, and Liso Kim Robert. "A Primer on the Building Economics of Climate Change." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Norway is exposed to a harsh climate and many facets of Norwegian society are, and will continue to be, affected by both climatic events and future climatic changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that anthropogenic climate change is likely to persist for many centuries. Natural disasters caused by extreme weather events, avalanches, storm surges or landslides are among the key challenges confronting Norway. Functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered due to possible impacts of climate change. Many parts of buildingsÌ external enclosures are likely to be subject to faster degradation. We pose the question of how the optimal operating of buildings will be affected by climate change risk factors. A microeconomic toolbox for analyses of the behaviour of building owners is developed. A building is a very Ïlong lastingó durable asset that over time is changed due to exogenously imposed strains and by actions. We analyse how buildings will be affected by climate change within a dynamic analytical framework that explicitly allows for changes in the information sets over time. The building stock some time into the future consists of the building stock of today and of the new construction of the future. Parts of the present building stock will in the future be adapted to changes in the environment, while parts are kept as is. Analysis of how the building stock is affected by climate change should handle this diversity. An analysis of the building economics of climate change should not confine it self to addressing the questions of how new construction is and ought to be affected. At the other hand the analysis should not be confined to investigations of how the existing building stock, without any adaptations taking place, are affected by changed occurrence of climate related strains. The paper shows how this can be handled through the use of a putty-clay model. Uncertainty of which climate regimes that will prevail in the future enhances the profitability of actions that increases the scope for future decisions. Hence the paper can also be said to belong to the real options approach to building economics.
di Massino, Uberto Visconti. "A Real Estate Market Observatory For Public Urban Planning." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The transformation of the urbanised territory is growingly produced by the activities of Real Estate developers, who have to follow the legislative frame given by the existing Urban Planning schemes referred to the development area. This process seems to have the public planning at the top of this decisional framework. The Real Estate developers, though, have also another reference point along with the planning permits, that is the economic result of the operations, depending as it is, from the encounter among the proposed product (real property of some kind) and the market's demand. This dual reference, especially in years of Îdifficult marketsÌ (i. e. strongly negative towards those products not required by demand), imposes on the above companies and entrepreneurs the dilemma of following two equally strong indications, the Planning schemes and the existing market demand, not necessarily coinciding and sometimes divergent with each other. In Italy when this contrast exists, often due to the rigid and long lasting General Communal Urban Plans, it is common use to ask for special permits that differ from the more general existing Communal Plan, permits that are long to obtain and that produce a type of urban development without a general comprehensive scheme, and allow the transformation for only the most convenient parts of the urban territory. A similar process applies when a Land Use Plan (Bestemmingsplan) has to be changed in The Netherlands, through the rules depicted in ÏArticle 19ó. An Urban Plan that considers the economics of the territory is not contrasting the public interest, on the contrary it might be more efficient and actually more effectively implemented (if at all) by the developers. A planning system aware of how the market is behaving can be an active player in that market, not only an observer or a referee. The scope of this research is to acquire the more effective and useful techniques to study and forecast the Real Estate Market, as developed by, or for, the Private sector (Real Estate companies, Developers and institutional investors), and see if this / these techniques can be used to enhance what can be eventually called a Î Market Aware (urban) PlanningÌ1 for the use of the Public Sector. The goal is to produce a tool (a Real Estate Markets Observatory) that can allow the evaluation and implementing of Territorial Plans or Programs, so that they may be aligned (or eventually contrast it, but at least as an 'aware' decision) with what the Real Estate market is and will be in the selected area.
Wolters, Arjen. "A risk analysis model for a social housing sector." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Social landlords own more than one third of the housing stock in the Netherlands. Especially in the decades after World War II, social landlords were both strongly controlled and strongly subsidised by the government. In the 1990Ìs, the government relaxed her hold on the social landlords but also ended all subsidisation. It was assumed that the social housing sector as a whole could make enough money by exploiting and partly selling the social housing stock to achieve all housing policy objectives. Those social landlords that are not able to make ends meet should be assisted by other social landlords. This paper describes a risk analysis model that we developed to determine the financial risks for the Dutch social housing sector as a whole. The development of the financial position of the social housing sector depends on a large number of uncertain factors. These factors can mainly be grouped in political uncertainties, macro economic uncertainties and housing market uncertainties. Our model uses Monte Carlo simulation to assess the risk caused by macro economic and housing market uncertainties. It can also be used to determine the consequences of different government policies. The results of the model show that with the current government policy, the social housing sector as a whole is not at risk. However, there are large differences between different regions. The most important uncertainty is in the house price development.
Wilhelmson, Mats. "A Simple Method to Derive Housing Sub-Markets and Reduce Spatial Dependency." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Housing markets are typically segmented into a number of different sub-markets. If the sub-markets are not included in the hedonic estimation process, parameters will be biased. Furthermore, if neighborhood characteristics are omitted there is a risk that spatial dependency will be present, and this will cause estimates to be biased, inefficient and inconsistent. The objective of this paper is to derive functional sub-markets using cluster analysis to improve upon the hedonic model and reduce spatial dependency. The empirical analysis shows that cluster analysis of the residuals can remedy the problem of spatial autocorrelation. However, if the housing market under investigation is geographically large, the number of clusters will increase rapidly if the objective is to reduce spatial dependency. The predictive performance is highly increased both in the full sample and the testing sample, but the predictive performance will be reduced if the sub-markets created are too small and too numerous. Hence, there is a trade-off between reducing spatial dependency and increasing the predictive power.
Mokrane, Mahdi, Champigny Emmanuelle, and Ternisien Laurent. "A Simplified Forecasting Approach for the Paris Office Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Liu, Nan, and Bauer Erich. "A Structural Analysis of B2B Digital Market in Real Estate." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Rowsby, P A., E.O. Bowman, and C.A. Jones. "Access to Social Housing in Scotland and The Netherlands." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The history of Scottish and Dutch social housing policy shows many similarities. However, despite similar general policy aims and a comparable environment of international economic change, housing systems in the UK and Netherlands have diverged since the 1980s (Murie and Priemus, 1994). Dutch social housing is almost entirely owned and managed by non-profit housing associations and co-operatives, in Scotland local authorities have traditionally dominated the sector. This paper considers how the different structures of social housing provision result in different housing outcomes for a city in each country. In particular, it assesses the disparities found between the quality of social housing provision over the period 1981- 2001.
Nordlund, Bo, and Persson Erik. "Accounting for Investment Property at fair value according to IAS 40 Fair value model." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. IAS 40, Investment Property, is an international accounting standard. This standard differs substantially from current Swedish accounting rules. According to the fair value model in IAS 40, investment properties should be continually reported at their fair value, and changes in value represent a component of profit for the year. Certain problems arise in conjunction with this type of accounting, including the feasible accuracy of valuations and cyclical movements in values over time. Given the fact that listed companies in the EU are to apply IAS no later than 2005, the application of the fair value model in IAS 40 accounting rules may arise for Swedish companies. The purpose of the paper is primarily a descriptive one. It is designed to highlight relevant theory in respect of accounting and valuation for property as well as conceivable accounting effects for property arising from uncertainty in valuations and the impact of cyclical movements in values. The conclusions of the paper are that fair value accounting for investment property will result in a reduction in the significance of previous key accounting principles Ò realization and prudence concepts Ò in favor of a nominally correct wealth measurement in financial statements. Cyclical movements in values over time may have considerable implications for reported earnings and reported equity. Furthermore, the uncertainty of property valuations is probably of such a magnitude that the consistency of both the income statement and balance sheet may be questioned to a certain extent as a result of the application of the fair value model.
Sotelo, Ramon. "Actual discussion in Germany on valuation methods." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Kovac, Subic. "Adequate Availability of Land for Construction - A Desire or Reality?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Erol, Isil, and Patel Kanak. "Alternative mortgage instruments for inflationary economies: adjustable payment mortgages in Turkey." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In the highly volatile inflationary environment in Turkey, there is not an efficient residential mortgage finance system. Due to the limited access to mortgage financing, low- and middleincome households do not have much chance of becoming homeowners in the market for authorised housing. Thus, Turkish government in collaboration with a state bank (Emlak Bank) focused on using alternative mortgage instruments to solve the problems which inflation causes in the case of constant payment mortgages. The use of Index-Linked Payment Mortgages (IL-PMs) have became more popular mortgage instruments since the late 1990s as an alternative to fixed rate mortgages (FRMs).
Doppegieter, Jan, and Islam Mazhar. "An Analysis of the German Commercial Real Estate Sector: Relative Performances of and Linkages between the Direct and Indirect Real Estate Sectors." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. By all comparisons, the German commercial real estate sector is large. Despite this, however, the indirect (listed) real estate market is less mature than that in, for instance, the USA, Australia and the UK. The indirect market is not very liquid, as relatively few large investors dominate this market segment, and it has not witnessed so far a wide-scale conversion of direct real estate into indirect, securitized instruments as has been the case in some other countries. This paper explores how the German direct real estate market relates to the listed real estate market from a number of different perspectives. It examines the securitization process in the German real estate market in comparison to that in some other countries. It explores the types of performance indicator(s) that are used in the direct real estate market and how these measures compare to the performance indicator(s) used in the indirect real estate market. It also analyzes the financial performance of the two market segments over the past decade. This should provide some insights into the possible drivers of and constraints to securitization activities in future.
James, Shilling. "An Evaluation of Property Company Discounts in Europe." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Discounts in the market price of a company (or fund) holding an asset to the book value of the underlying asset have been extensively studied in equity markets. Explanations such as accumulated capitalgain liabilities, management costs and institutional characteristics have been suggested as reasons for the observed discounts. However there has been little research on this phenomenon in real estate markets, despite a belief that such discounts are pervasive. Using data collected by Merrill Lynch and EPRA it is possible to investigate how discounts to net asset values vary cross-sectionally by using the approach of Shin and Stulz (2000). To do this we measure growth opportunities by identifying the total volatility and the systematic (beta) risk of a firm. We then use cross section regression techniques to study the relationship between the firmÌs discount to NAV and the risk measures across European markets.
Kramer, Bert, and Vlak Arnoud. "An Index for Social Housing Property Returns." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In this paper we present the worldÌs first social housing property index. The index is designed to be consistent with the IPD indices, but includes extra analysis tailor-made to the needs of social housing corporations. The index not only reports the receivable direct property return, but also provides an estimate of the effect on that return which may be traced to the social aims of housing corporations. The Îsocial dividendÌ or Îpolicy effectÌ reflects both the impact of lower rents and extra required expenditures on general living conditions. The index measures returns on direct investment in residential property. All participants in the index have agreed to adopt a common approach to valuation, and using specially developed software for the valuation of residential properties. In this paper we describe the methodology used to construct the index. In addition, we will show how this index can be used by social housing corporations to improve their performance, taking into account both social and financial return and risk.
Rebelo, Emilia. "An interactive econometric model to evaluate offices." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Yih, Yeh Kuang, and Lee Yung-Lung. "Analysis of the Change of Real Estate Market Structure in the Damaged Area after 921 Great Earthquake in Nan-tou City." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. 921 Great Earthquake of September 21 in 1999, magnitude 7.3, was centered in Taiwn middle region. The natural hazards of great earthquake represent an exogenous factor of price effect in real estate market. These impacts are expected to be more significant in heavily damaged area. This study aims to analyze the change of real estate market structure during reconstruction process in Nan-tou City damaged by the 921 Great Earthquake and to show the factors influencing those change. The possible factors, such as damages by the earthquake, property attribute and their location points, which are encouraged to rebuild or obstructed local stores to open, are revealed. The air photos taken immediately after the earthquake were used to analyze the damaged area and the second hand data from the local government were also used to verify the field survey results. The topographic map and urban plan map in ArcView GIS format supported by the city government contribute to this on site surveying. The annual floor areas of construction data are used to find out the real estate market change in quantity. The reconstruction process recorded the path of the residential and commercial real estate built up. The discrimant model used to demonstrate the reasons of the reconstruction of the real estate structure in terms of the property attributes. The success of the real estate market depends on the mechanism of the land ownership reorganization, financing terms of the banking system and the comprehensive conditions of the infrastructure in the damaged area. This study can contribute to the current situation of the real estate market and find out some direction of the future market growth.
Tirtiroglu, Douan. "Assumption Financing and Property Values: A New Perspective and Valuation Implications." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper benefits from the Adjusted Present Value (APV) in advancing a theoretical framework for valuing properties financed especially under assumption financing. We use APV to show that the valuation process should first establish a subject propertyÌs all-equity value. Once this is accomplished, APV suggests that an analyst consider various incremental values from using debt financing and that those deemed belonging to the seller be added to the all-equity value to establish a final property value.
Karakozova, Olga. "Asymmetric capital growth effects for the Helsinki office market ." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The present study examines whether office capital growth in the Helsinki property market adjusts asymmetrically to the business cycle over the period 1971Ò2002 using the framework of the autoregressive-moving average model with exogenous explanatory variables (ARIMAX). In order to introduce asymmetry into the base ARIMAX model and to examine different responses of office capital growth to its key driver, GDP, the latter was decomposed into two components, that is a growth rate above and below a pre-specified threshold. These two GDP growth rates represent Ïbad timesó or Ïgood timesó or recessions and recoveries in the Finnish economy. The threshold values were taken as the mean and the first quartile of annual GDP growth during the period 1971- 2002. The results indicate that capital growth in Helsinki adjusts asymmetrically to upturns and downturns of the Finnish economy with the adjustments to downturns being sharper. In the second stage, the study evaluates the forecasting performance of the symmetric and asymmetric models. The out-of-sample forecast performance of the models reveals that allowing for asymmetric responses clearly improves the forecasting adequacy of the models.
Gibb, Kenneth. "At the Margins of Devolution? Fiscal Autonomy and Housing Benefit." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Recent policy debate in Scotland has focused on the vexed question of fiscal autonomy (Heald and McLeod, 2002). One important, though under-researched, dimension of the debate concerns the expenditure and policy design relationships between devolved policy responsibilities in areas such as housing and non-devolved but related policy areas such as social security and Housing Benefit (HB). This paper adds to the debate on fiscal autonomy by looking at the place of housing policy and raises a series of specific questions relating to proposals to increase fiscal autonomy in terms of both the financing and design of low-income housing subsidies operating within Scotland. This is timely as the Department of Work and Pensions proposes to introduce a pilot cashbased allowance for the private rented sector. One of the ÎpathfindersÌ will be in Scotland. After the introduction, Section 2 sets out the social housing policy framework in terms of Scottish and UK competencies. Section 3 describes the present Housing Benefit system. Section 4 outlines the proposed reforms of using Benefit, restructure rents and widen choice-based allocation of social housing. The specifics of the imminent reforms to Housing Benefits in the private sector, the ÎPathfinderÌ proposals, are also discussed. This leads on, in Section 5, to an examination of the scope for developing a Scottish alternative to either Housing Benefit as it is currently configured or in terms of the proposed cash allowance that is at the heart of current reforms. Section 6 concludes the discussion.
Holmes, John, and Griffiths David. "Attitudes towards sustainability and the energy performance of building directive in the UK." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The purpose of this paper is to examine attitudes towards sustainability in the UK office market. Although offices are relatively low consumers of energy in the national context, a well designed and specified ÎgreenÌ office can contribute to lower national CO2 outputs, reduce whole life costs and provide a more pleasant, productive working environment. Despite these benefits, environmentally friendly offices are comparatively rare. Anecdotal evidence suggests that only 200 offices a year are currently being assessed under the Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method (BREEAM). It is hoped that the research will be of interest to surveyors, property developers and office occupiers as well as academics. The paper attempts to quantify knowledge of BREEAM amongst surveyors working in the office market. To explore further, interviews with surveyors attempt to provide an insight into the main drivers towards sustainable office development, in particular market demand and the extent to which occupiers are prepared to pay a premium for sustainable design. The research also provides initial reactions to the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive.
Wong, Grace K. M.. "Before and after September 11: Quality of Life of Expatriates in Singapore." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Singapore, a cosmopolitan city in the heart of South-East Asia, attracts expatriates from all over the world. This paper discusses the findings of two large-scale surveys, which are conducted before and after the September 11 incident, to assess the quality of life of expatriates who are working and living in Singapore. The expatriatesÌ quality of life is examined in terms of their overall life satisfaction as well as their perception of the importance and satisfaction towards the 20 aspects of life identified for the study. Although the September 11 event has increased expatriatesÌ concerns regarding public safety, especially for the non-Asians, both types of expatriates indicate that they are generally more satisfied with their quality of life in Singapore due in part to a higher provision of public safety, an efficient system of sea and air transportation, a wide range of public utilities, as well as good quality local and foreign education. When compared with their own countries, both types of expatriates are least satisfied with the relatively less vibrant art and culture scene in Singapore. The expatriates also exhibit different needs, lifestyles and concerns which arise as a result of the September 11 incident as well as from their different household attributes. For instance, in the aftermath of the September 11 event, non-Asian expatriates appear to be less satisfied with the information availability and media coverage in Singapore compared to before. On the other hand, the tax incentives to alleviate the effects of the Asian Financial Crisis seem to have increased Asian expatriatesÌ satisfaction with the cost of living in Singapore.
Halme, Minna, and Anttonen Markku. "Benchmarking sustainable services for the housing sector in the city of tomorrow." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The HOMESERVICE project studies services that: Ô Are offered to residents at their home either directly by the housing provider or via an intermediary organisation and Ô Effect sustainable development positively. The key idea behind the Homeservice project is that environmental burden can be reduced by replacing products with services. Previous studies indicate that consumers must be able to use such services as conveniently as the products they own themselves. Therefore the services should be offered to consumers at their homes. Competition in the housing market is increasing. This challenge can be met in various ways. One possibility is to supply homeservices to the residents. Therefore the project focuses on the residents, the intermediaries (e.g. housings organisations) and the service providers. However, not every product can be replaced by a homeservice. The project searches market niches for homeservices in seven service areas: consulting and information, care and supervision, leisure time services/activities, repairs, mobility and delivery, safety and security, supply and disposal. Why offer other than mandatory services in the first place? The business benefits relate to reduction of costs (e.g. via energy and water savings) and improved image. Improved image on its turn is likely to make the housing provider more attractive in the eyes of the existing and potential residents. Consequently it makes possible longer tenancies and thus reduces changeover of residents. Furthermore, a good image appeals to better segments of the tenant market. Thinking beyond direct business benefits, the service orientation is one practical way of taking responsibility of society (by providing more jobs), residents, and the environment. Sustainable homeservices may offer competitive advantage for real estate services. To achieve these goals project tries to answer following questions: Ô What are the best-practice services in six European countries? Ô Which services and what way they are provided to the residents? Ô What are the obstacles for sustainable services? Ô What incentives there are for housing sector organisations to provide services?
Royston, Paul. "Beyond Finance Theory: How Farming Influences the Behaviour of Real Estate Investors." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. How do real estate investors make buy and sell decisions? Finance theory offers portfolio and capital market theories to answer the question of how investors should optimise their selection decisions. But finance theory consigns the behaviour of investors to that of Îrational wealth maximisersÌ. Are investors rational decision makers? The world of finance is taking a lot of interest in this issue as witnessed by a surge of research in the field of behavioural finance. Behavioural finance borrows from the disciplines of psychology and judgement and decision making to answer the question Îhow do investors behave?Ì Behavioural finance has uncovered evidence of non-rational behaviour and is working on the development of theories that are able to accommodate the true diversity and complexity of human decision makers. This paper considers the nature of economic rationality as adopted in traditional finance and explores the potential for aspects of behavioural finance to be applied to the study of real estate investment markets. The application of behavioural research offers the potential to increase our knowledge and understanding of how real estate investment markets operate and to help investors improve their real estate investment decisions.
Andrew, Mark. "Borrowing Constraints and its Impact on The First-Time Buyer Market in Britain." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Klijnen, J.L.M.J., and M.P. Copier. "Can the quality of the inflatory hedge of Real Estate be Used for the Creation of a Series of New Innovative Investment Products?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Institutional investors have to optimise their asset-mix in such a way that at any time all future liabilities will be met. Many investors, especially pension funds, need on top of a certain minimum return some compensation for actual inflation. Amongst other reasons as for instance its low correlation with other asset classes, real estate is often added to investment portfolios to contribute to this inflation hedge. Over the last couple of years, due to matters as high operating costs and the desire for international diversification combined with lack of local knowledge, increasingly investors shifted their real estate portfolios from directly owned to indirect holdings via participations in listed and non listed real estate investment vehicles. Also, investors are actively looking for alternative investment products, which match the desired risk return profile and secure their inflation-based obligations. This trend has led to innovative financially structured products, which guarantee annual inflation. One of these products, which has been jointly developed by IEF N.V.1 and Bouwfonds Asset Management BV2, is the Inflation Exchange Contract (IEC). Via this contract, the actual future inflation will be sold to investors. Hedged by real estate portfolios, investors receive an annual compounded inflation (calculated over a fixed coupon amount) for a set time period (the Ïcontract periodó). In order to analyse the risk profile of the IEC, extensive data analysis and modelling has been done. A model using Monte Carlo simulation has been created to estimate the probability that the income stream from real estate portfolio is not able to meet all financing obligations, including those from the IEC. Based on the calculated Îdefault risksÌ ratings can be assigned to the various financial instruments that have been used to finance the real estate portfolios. These ratings can then be used to price the IEC in a transparent way. This paper will discuss the motivation, assumptions, risks and returns of this innovative financially structured product.
Levy, Deborah S., and Lee Christina. "Client switching behaviour in property services." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The effect of customers switching away from a property service provider can prove damaging to a companyÌs market share and profitability. A considerable amount has explored the customerÌs decision to switch from one service provider to another and the impact of this decision. Little research however has been undertaken in the context of property service providers. This paper investigates customersÌ reasons for switching property service providers within a business-to-business context by means of in depth interviews and discusses the implications of these findings.
Chin, Lawrence, and Fang Gangzhi. "Cointegration Analysis of Singaporeís Residential Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Several important events such as the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and 11th Sep Attack in New York, has further heightened our concern for the conditions in the real estate markets, in particular for the housing market. This paper utilizes cointegration and errorcorrection models and Granger causality tests to investigate the dynamics of the Singapore private housing market. Consequently, private housing prices are found to be cointegrated with GDP, prime lending rates and private housing commencements and private housing rents, indicating that they share a common stochastic trend. In the short run, it is shown that the error correction mechanism plays an important adjustment role in the fluctuation of prices in order to bring the deviations in prices to return to the long-run equilibrium path. However, the adjustment is very slow due to the inefficiency of the real estate market. Furthermore, our results also show that, in the short run, the conditions in the financial market and macroeconomic economy can produce more significant influence on the number of housing commencements, while the price and supply factors of the real estate market can explain more about the short-run dynamics of rents.
Lukhinichna, Melentjeva Kristina. "Comparative Study of Schemes for Financing Homebuyers in Russia: Main Risks and Advantages for the Buyer." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
de Kroon, Ir. H. M., and Aart C. A. Hordijk. "Construction of a Historic Netherlands Residential Index using Repeated Measures Regression techniques." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Korteweg, Piet. "Coping with Obsolence of Office Buildings." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Kolb, Christian. "Corporate Governance in the German Real Estate Industry." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Corporate governance is becoming an important issue in the German real estate industry. Some of the major issues facing German real estate companies today as they try to gain and maintain investorÌs confidence are for example: standardized property valuation, transparency, executive compensation, board member qualification and board appraisal, investorÌs relations and corporate rating. The purpose of the paper is to describe the status quo of corporate governance in German real estate companies as well as trends and recent developments and changes. Despite the differences in corporate control structure, Germany has made substantial progress over the past years in increasing transparency, independence and professionalism in most German boards. The German Corporate Governance Code has put many different laws in one framework and made GermanyÌs corporate governance rules transparent for both national and international investors. Being member of a supervisory board is no more regarded as a purely honorary function, with little time involvement, low pay and virtually no liability, but as a professional task. Board members have increased the time they commit to their role and are now very concerned about liability. Germany is following the international trend for convergence in practice and content. It is trying to adopt best practice from other countries, as long as it does not clash with the German legal structure. While many of the worldÌs largest publicly listed companies have understood that transparency and investorÌs relations are important, this lesson has not yet been learned by the majority of German real estate companies. Focusing on standardized appraisal methods, good investorÌs relations, qualified managers and transparency will be on the agenda for the next years. The foundation of the Initiative Corporate Governance of the German Real Estate industry will speed up the development of good governance throughout the industry and set quality standards.
Tay, Linda, Liow Kim-Hiang, and Ooi Joseph. "Corporate real estate performance: A data-driven analysis." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This study utilizes data collected from MNCs and listed firms in Singapore to identify critical factors influencing corporate real estate performance. A data-driven analytical technique is adopted to study the direct and indirect effects of performance factors on corporate real estate. A further benefit of using this technique is that it allows a representation of additional interrelationships between the factors. From the current literature, there are four main categories of factors that affect corporate real estate performance. These are corporate, environment, portfolio and management related factors. The results indicate that only corporate real estate planning and the existence of a real estate unit have a direct impact on corporate real estate performance. This finding is both theoretically expected and important. The results reinforces current literature postulations on the importance of strategic planning as on of the key skills that corporate real estate managers need to be equipped with to meet the challenges ahead.
Ilsjan, Veronika. "Current issues in real property appraisal in Estonia ." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. History of appraisal practice in Estonia is shorter than a decade. However, a remarkable effort has been made in promoting property appraisal by the Estonian Association of Appraisers. During eight years internationally accepted valuation principles have been adopted, an independent but legitimate certification system has been applied and the quality control system is developing continuously. Because of the globalization and the euro-integration the set of problems concerning appraisal is g, tightening international competition is a big challenge for the competence of local professionals and to the education system. In addition to globalization-related problems, Estonia is facing troubles similar to other transitional countries: unfinished reforms, changing legal environment, outdated education and language barriers of working professionals, lack of experience and know-how etc. And, certainly, the shortage of financial and intellectual resources, caused by the smallness of Estonia because of which the problems are particularly sharp. To identify the problems of working professionals, an inquiry of certified appraisers was carried out, where questions about educational background and practical work experience, about training programs attended and about additional needs for training, use of standards and handbooks, about attitudes towards application of quality control system, contentment with the EAA work etc. were asked. The most essential problems in the near future are the availability of renewed international standards (IVS and EVS) in national language, making more effective the quality control system and public relations, and, last but not least Ò to solve educational problems.
Thompson, Bob, and Hills Michael. "Customer services - the search for value added." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. All fashions are to an extent ephemeral. The perception of an exponential growth in internet use and the growth of new, virtual business models fuelled a great deal of interest in connectivity. As the dot.com boom turned to bust, interest in the subject evaporated. Despite becoming deeply unfashionable in property circles, the internet has continued to change occupier businesses and, as a consequence, place increasing demands upon the telecommunications infrastructure in buildings. The lack of importance attributed to the subject is born of the mistaken belief that this is a technological issue. In fact it is just one example of the provision of additional services to customers. This paper reviews new research into customer demand for services in buildings that they occupy and looks at trends in the supply of those services.
Key, Tony, Gustafsson Christina, Aronsson Ylva, and Franson Joakim. "Cycles in Office Returns: Stockholm As Case Study and International Comparisons." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Long-run series on realised investor returns suggest that offices tend to show poor risk-adjusted returns relative to other property market sectors. The paper is an empirical test of the performance of the dominant office markets in four countries Ò UK, Ireland, Sweden and France Ò against alternative property investments in each country. The choice of countries for analysis is determined by the availability of portfolio-based returns series running back over a sufficient period to identify long-run returns characteristics. The comparisons show that in all four countries the cores of the office markets in the dominant financial centres have produced risk-adjusted returns inferior to those in other office markets, and other market sectors. On this evidence, the offices in major centres present the largest anomaly Ò running against the standard theories on risk-return trade off Ò in property investment performance. It would appear that returns have been systematically poor in the most liquid and best informed segments of the market, and that investors have maintained high Ò in some countries rising Ò exposure to markets with historically weak performance.
Lunde, Jens. "Danish Mortgage - in its 4th Century." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Danish mortgage is in its 4th century. Bonds have been used for the funding always. Debt services just pass through the mortgage bank to the investors, at one of the biggest bond markets compared to GDP. The Danish capital market and the interest level are close connected to Euro land. Yet, national investors and especially pension funds dominate the market, where all types of owners raise mortgages for all properties. Economies of scale mean only few mortgage banks operate. Danish mortgage loans have low adjusted spreads. Traditionally, Danish mortgages have fixed interest with a prepayment option and debtors pay for the call option through a higher fixed interest rate. Over the decades, the market has experienced large amounts of gainful prepayments, latest and most significant in 1993-94. Prepayment activities occur after interest drops, while interest increases lead to re-buying of the bonds and refinancing at higher coupons. Since 1996, the fixed interest regime has been broken with a sudden violence by introduction of interest-adjusted mortgage loans, typical with fixed interest rates for 1, 2÷5 years and similar to US ARM- loans. Many debtors have refinanced fixed interest with adjusted interest rate loans. However, Danish debtors seem to ride the yield curve by raising loans in the short end, even at a very low interest level. This is opposite normal economic thinking. This development has changed interest risks and its consequence for credit risk. Especially newer owner-occupiers have a tense capital structure, also when mortgage debt is compared to property value. Therefore systemic risk and security for mortgage banks are important.
Kirejczyk, Kazimierz. "Decade of Changes - Residential Market in Poland." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Raitio, Ville. "Decision Support for Office Space Selection." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This thesis discusses office space selection as a decision problem and delivers one suitable approach for decision support in the selection situation. Office space selection is a familiar situation to virtually every company. In addition, the problem has several interesting features; office space selection includes a variety of different criteria, is capital intensive and, finally, usually has long-term effects. Due to these features office space selection is, in our opinion, an interesting field of application for multi-criteria decision support methods. Furthermore, the need for decision support in office space selection is accentuated by the fact that, currently, there are virtually no analytical tools readily available for solving the selection problem.
Alkay, Elif. "Demand Structure of Segmented Social Environments on Physical Environment and Housing Prices on it in Istanbul Metropolitan Area." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Pagourtzi, Elli, and Assimakopoulus Vassilis. "Development of real estate evaluation system with the use of G.I.S. technology." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The objective of the paper is to present the development of a real estate evaluation system with the use of GIS (Geographic Information Systems) technology. System (REGIS Real estate Evaluation Geographic Information System) was developed with MS Visual Basic 6.0. and Map Xtreme 4.5. (Graphical User Interface), also User Interface was developed on GIS platform (MapInfo Professional 6.5.) and the database in Microsoft Access 2000 (DBMS) during the PhD thesis of one of the authors. The system focuses on the evaluation of the real estate property values. Valuation methods that are used by the system can be grouped as traditional and advanced. The traditional methods are regression models and comparable method. The advanced methods are ANNs (Artificial Neural Networks), spatial analysis methods and fuzzy logic. The real estate model is built on a regional data bank of some owner-occupied or non - owner-occupied residential properties sold in specific time. These properties are located using geodetic co-ordinates. They are integrated into software of GIS. Many attributes are available to describe this real estate model. Also all methods that are used by the system depend on property variables. They can be grouped as follows: Environmental variables (neighbourhood, distance or proximity, and social - economic variables), Financial variables, and Property variables (quantitative and qualitative variables of the property). Some of the variables can be measured while others cannot. Variables quantification may become easier through GIS tools (buffering, overlay and modelling). The applicability of the system was tested with a case study in estimation of house sales prices. It was used in order to evaluate property values in one municipality of Attica in Greece. The estimation, market analysis, forecasting and management of property values are of great importance and prerequisite for real estate development.
Hedvall, Kaj, Kaleva Hanna, Leiwo Kaisa, and Olkkonen Olli. "Development of real estate research in Finland." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Trifonov, Nikolai. "Development of Real Estate Valuation communities in Europe and in the World." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In the paper an attempt to review processes of forming professional organizations of valuers throughout the world is set forth. National organizations such as Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors from United Kingdom and Appraisal Institute from United States, international ones such as Federation internationale des geometres, the International Valuation Standards Committee and World Association of Valuation Organisations, and regional ones as The European Group of ValuersÌ Associations and the Council of ValuersÌ Associations of Commonwealth of Independent States, their goals, history and activities have reviwed.
Thompson, Bob. "Distribution property in Europe." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The accession of ten new EU members in 2004 with an orderly queue forming for 2007 and thereafter has been changing the pattern of trade and therefore distribution in Europe for a decade or more. New and growing markets place a great strain upon supply chains that have not been optimized for the purpose. This paper looks at the new geography of Europe from the perspective of the creation of distribution hubs. Using low-level output and population data it draws out a spatial model that identifies sub-regions most suitable for distribution uses and compares the findings with available market data to identify opportunities.
Bond, Sandy, McMahon Nick, and Beamish Karen. "Do Cellular Phone Base Station Towers affect Residential Property Values?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Studies show that devices that emit electromagnetic fields (EMFs) are no longer seen as a welcome sign of progress due to the potential health hazards from these. The introduction of cellular phone systems and a rapid increase in the number of users of cellular phones in the last decade has increased the exposure of the population to EMFs quite considerably. Health consequences of longterm use of cellular phones are not known in detail, but available data indicate that development of non-specific health symptoms is possible (Szmigielski & Sobiczewska, 2000). Conversely, it appears health effects from cellular phone equipment (antennas and base stations) pose few (if any) known health hazards (Barnes, 1999). A concern associated with cellular phone usage is the siting of cellular phone transmitting antennas (CPTAs) and base stations (CPBSs). The extent of opposition from property owners affected by the siting of these is increasing due to fears of health risks from exposure to EMFs (despite research reports to the contrary), changes in neighbourhood aesthetics and loss in property values. However, the extent to which such attitudes are reflected in lower property values affected by cellular base stations is not known in New Zealand. This paper outlines both the results of a pilot study carried out in Auckland, NZ in 2002 and the initial results of a study carried out in Christchurch, NZ in 2003 to show the effect of CPBSs on residential property values. The research examines residentsÌ perceptions toward living near CPBSs and how they evaluate the impacts of these structures. A case study approach was used. The results were mixed with responses from residents ranging from having no concerns to being very concerned about proximity to a CPBS. Consequently, how these perceptions impact on property values was also mixed with responses from residents ranging from being prepared to pay the same to being prepared to pay more than twenty percent less for a property located near a CPBS. Interestingly, in general, those people living near the CPBSs were much less concerned about issues such as future health risks or the aesthetic problems caused by the sites than people who lived in areas further away from them. The more in-depth study currently in progress in Christchurch to confirm the survey results includes an econometric analysis of sales transaction data. Christchurch was selected as the case study area for this research due to the large amount of media attention this area has received in recent years relating to the siting of CPBSs.
Kooymans, Rob. "Do Corporate Real Estate Executives Trust Their Service Providers? Some Evidence from Australia." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. "One of the responses to the search for corporate real estate (CRE) management competence by organisations under pressure to perform, has been to outsource many or all of the services CRE provides to the organisation. In many cases, the outsourcing has been driven by the political need to get assets and bodies off the annual report, rather than by a measured determination to manage the real estate to achieve the best strategic results for the organisation. In the middle of this activity is the CRE manager, who is at one extreme looked upon as a resource who can help overhaul the real estate operations in line with corporate objectives, and at the other, is seen as expendable. Not surprisingly, CRE managers have tended to adopt a variety of attitudes to outsourcing, ranging from being the chief instigators to being leaders of staunch guerilla resistance. The CRE managers' attitudes to outsourcing have subsequently been formed by their experiences in dealing with service providers, who are themselves, a very mixed bag of attitude and competence. Of course, ""outsourcing"" is rather a catch-all term. It is argued that the problem is really about organising CRE work in the most effective and efficient manner, on a continuum ranging from the pure market transaction of the spot purchase, through traditional contracting, preferred provider arrangements, exclusive provider arrangements and strategic alliances, to the non-market arrangements of the firm. As we progress along that continuum, the discipline of the market is increasingly replaced by a reliance on trust and cooperation. The question is, does the attitude of the CRE manager to service providers and outsourcing generally, militate against the organisation's adoption of the optimum method of obtaining CRE services? The paper, which draws on surveys and case studies from the author's doctoral thesis research in the private and public sectors, provides some answers to that question. It examines the relationship between the attitudes of CRE managers to outsourcing/service providers, and the arrangements that organisations make to obtain their corporate real estate services."
Crosby, Neil. "Do current processes and techniques facilitate or encumber a market response to social change? The UK pricing experience." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
O’Roarty, Brenna. "Driving Retail Returns Through Consumer Analysis." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Yegorov, Yuri. "Dynamics of Interest Rate and Spanish Housing Markets." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The goal of this paper is to explain recent dynamics of housing prices in Spain. Two phenomena have been observed simultaneously: a signi cant decline in interest and mortgage rates and explosion of Spanish housing prices. Between 1998 and 2002 Spanish housing prices were growing well above in ation level, practically doubling during this period. The decline in interest rate should normally lead to a decline in housing prices, but in Spanish case it has correlated with growth of housing prices. The paper tries to explain the observed phenomenon with the decline of mortgage rate in the environment of local monopolies in housing construction. Contrary to US mortgage markets, which follow long-term rather than short-term interest rate path, Spanish banks o er mortgages at EURIBOR rate plus a small margin. This leads to a signi cant growth in mortgage accessibility for less wealthy agents, but in monopolistic environment is translated into rise of housing price for new construction. The prices of used housing also follow this path. Additional growth e ect comes from an increased demand for housing as nancial asset. There exists an evidence about signi cant purchases of second houses, partly for investment or speculative reasons. The paper constructs a theoretical model of housing prices taking into account all described phenomena.
Wang, Zheng. "Dynamics of Urban Residential Property Prices - A Case Study of the Manhattan Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Dixon, Tim, and Marston Andrew. "eCommerce and Retail Property in the UK - Impacts, Trends and Comparisons: 2000 - 2003." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Despite the apparent reported cooling of sentiment towards eCommerce, recent statistics show that online shopping remains a very important element in the UK retail scene. The College of Estate Management has developed an annual benchmark survey to track and monitor eCommerce progress in relation to property impact. The research is based on two separate cohorts of retailers and investors/developers who have responded to continuing surveys and interviews during 2000, 2001 and 2003 in projects funded by BCSC, European Shopping Centre and RICS Education Trusts. The paper shows key trends in eCommerce from the perspective of both groups, focusing on their strategic response and the barriers and drivers to eCommerce in the retail sector. The position of the UK in the international eCommerce marketplace is also be examined. Finally the policy implications for Government in relation to urban shape and form will be analysed, in the light of the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister's Planning Advisory Group's recommendations.
Siniak, Nikolai. "Econometric analysis and forecast of the real estate cost in the capital of Belarus - Minsk." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The real estate market of Belarus historically is still very young. The beginning of its development can be dated by middle of 1992, when together with process of privatization in Minsk the legal bargains on sale of flats, later - other real estate have appeared. Thus, Belarusian real estate market, as well as the conference of ERES celebrates the 10 anniversaries. In other towns of Belarus the start of the real estate market has taken place together with the beginning of economics liberalization - in 1992, 1993 and later. For the last 10 years it has done unprecedented way of a becoming and development. From first steps of the real estate market the most far-seeing practices - realtors and the specialists of scientific organizations have began to analyze the legitimacies and tendencies of its development. However till now it is not deeply researched in reality and there is no developed and accepted methodology of its analysis and forecasting. It is known the main regularity of the developed markets: cycle variations of activity and prices together with economical, investment and other cycles; connection between the real estate market and other markets (currency, share); formation of the prices on the basis of equilibrium of a supply and demand and ctr. The researches have shown that all these of regularity are upset and flow by another way for the developing real estate markets in conditions of transition economies. The analysis of the real estate market of Minsk for 10 years of its existence is maid. The features and regularity of its development are detected. With usage of econometric methods the forecast of the real estate market for 2003 is maid. The concept of creation of the real estate market monitoring is offered. In Europe it is offered to create Center of Real Estate Markets Monitoring that will be useful for financial organizations and for experts to analyze development of real estate markets in transition and market economy. The Center could be organized with a help of ERES.
Stevenson, Simon. "Economic, Demographic and Fiscal Influences on Housing Market Dynamics." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper examines the behaviour of the Irish housing market during the boom of the late nineties. The market experienced substantial price increases in the late nineties. This paper aims to examine the fundamental factors at play in the Irish market and to see if a speculative element was present in house price dynamics in this period. Fundamental models of both housing supply and demand are modelled and generally provide an accurate depiction of the market. Tests for evidence of speculative behaviour in the market show that substantial premiums over fundamental value were observable in the late nineties. However, in most cases the markets had returned to equilibrium by 2001. Regional differences are also observed, however, this may in some part be due to data bias and these findings should be viewed with some level of caution.
Morón, Pedro. "Effects of the Housing Policy in the Tenureship: The Spain Case." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In this paper we will analyse the relationship between the expenditures of owning and renting housing. We will also analyse this relationship when the housing user is eligible for government assistance with special reference to Spain. What we will try to demonstrate is that in certain conditions of high rates of inflation and high mortgage rates, rental housing may be more expensive than home ownership in constant monetary terms. The user of housing must pay housing expenditures on occasion with government assistance through the governmentÌs social housing policy, where higher expenditure for the same degree of accessibility means higher government expenditure. Therefore, for the same economic effort on the part of the user, if the trend is towards higher expenditures, the greater government assistance will be required. Apart from a lack of financial resources, there are several situations where renting is preferable, and may even be more desirable, compared to purchasing for the users and society.
Bao, Helen, and Wan Alan. "Estimating hedonic housing price models with spline functions." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Watkins, Craig, Colwell Peter, and Leishman Chris. "Estimating the impact of environmental contamination on house prices: a hybrid index approach." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. We extend the literature on the impact of externalities by utilizing an approach based on a hybrid of hedonic and repeat-sales methods. The repeat-sales method is superior to the hedonic method when some of the key property attributes are unavailable and when the analyst can be confident that the attributes and parameters will not have changed over time. On the other hand, the hedonic method is superior when property attributes and/or the parameters change between sales. A hybrid method can combine the best features of both methods. The externality in question is TCE contamination of groundwater in Scottsdale, Arizona. The use of condominium sales allows us to assume that the major physical characteristics remain unchanged. However, we must accommodate location parameters that may be altered by urban growth and development as well as contamination.
Woodruff, Henry. "European industrial rents, land values and yields - convergence or divergence?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Ball, Asli. "European Logistics Markets: Business Demand and Implications for Real Estate Markets." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Kennedy, Paul, and McGough Tony. "European Yield modelling and forecasting: A comparison of econometric and systematic techniques." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Grissom, Terry, and Lizieri Colin. "Exchange Rate Regime Impacts on Real Estate Securities Returns: the Euro Conversion." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The euro conversion as an exogenous event in foreign exchange markets offers an opportunity not only for investigation of the impact of the euro on international real estate performance, but allows a general inquiry and test of the introduction of an alternative currency regime within the construct of historical economic principles. These general economic ÏLawsó may enable an alternative approach and conceptual construct to the specific empirical investigation of the extent to which the change in exchange rates influences the change in real estate returns. This inquiry is necessary to address the dichotomy in the international real estate literature as to the extent to which exchange rate volatility offsets the arbitrage and diversification potential offered by international real estate in mixed asset portfolio. Strong arguments and positions have been taken on both sides of this issue as expressed in the research of Ziobrowski, and Curio (1991), Gordon and Canter (1998), Liu and Mei (1998), etc.
Boon, Ann. "Executive Farming - the real estate answer to the UK's crisis in agriculture." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper reports on the initial findings of a major new piece of research that highlights the importance of non-agricultural sources of income to the UK rural economy. Prompted by the recent significant falls in agricultural income, farmers have been looking to convert redundant farm buildings to commercial use in order to redress the deficit. Meanwhile the forces of counter urbanisation have identified accessible areas as pleasant places to work but not necessarily in the activities normally associated with the rural economy (Breheny 1999). However, prompted by the need to achieve sustainable development, the UK government is seeking through policy to guide economic development back into urban areas where the infrastructure is already in place.
Kauko, Tom. "Exploring sub national housing markets with the Kohonen map - evidence from three European country contexts." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. To explore and monitor the housing market fundamentals (prices, dwelling features, area density, residents etc.) on a macro-locational level is motivated because of various policy or business related goals. Housing market segmentation, a concept with increasing relevance, means differentiation of housing due to income and preferences of the residents and administrative circumstances (i.e. the emergence of housing submarkets). In order to capture the segmentation empirically, the study applies a fairly new and emerging technique known as the Îself-organizingÌ map (SOM, ÎKohonen mapÌ). The SOM is a type of (artificial) neural network, a non-linear and flexible (i.e. non- or semi-parametric) regression and Îmachine learningÌ technique. By utilising the ability of the SOM to visualise patterns, it is possible to analyse various dimensions within the variation of the data set. Segmentation may then be detected depending on the resulting patterns across the map layers, each of which represents the data variation for one input variable. Following an inductive modelling strategy, cross-sectional and nationwide data of the owner-occupied housing markets of Finland, the Netherlands and Hungary, respectively, are run with the SOM. On the basis of the resulting configurations certain regularities (similarities and differences) across the three contexts may be identified. In Finland, housing market segmentation depends on two factors: relative location within the region, and house type. In the Netherlands, the picture is more heterogeneous within urban areas of all sizes, but more homogeneous across municipalities. In Hungary the structure shares features from both previous contexts: features of relative macro-location can be identified, as can a sharp market segmentation within counties and regions. In all three cases the segments are determined by physical and institutional differences between the housing bundles and localities. The exercise demonstrates how the inductive SOM-based approach is well suited for illustrating the contextual factors that determine housing market structure. Additionally, some empirical results are generated that may have some further significance in respective contexts.
White, Michael, and Jackson Catherine. "Exploring the determinants of rental change in industrial real estate." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The industrial property market has traditionally been under-researched because of the dominance of owner-occupation and its consequent low weighting in institutional investment portfolios. However, in recent years, studies have ranged from examining rental change at the national level to examining supply factors at the local level. These studies are valuable to the real estate community, but there still remain significant gaps. This paper focuses on two of these inter-related gaps. The interaction between inflation and rental change has been largely over-looked at all levels of data aggregation. Further, the relative importance of national factors, such as inflation, and regional and local factors in rental determination have also been ignored. This paper finds that, at a national level, inflation reduces real industrial rents. This result is reinforced at the regional level. National, regional and local factors are all found to be important in governing rental change in local markets. This implies that factors operating at all spatial scales must be considered in rental studies.
Vaisanen, Esko, Promain Oy, Mottonen Veli, and Kauppinen Timo. "Facility Management costs of spa and wellness hotels and rehabilitation centres." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The facility management costs and energy consumption of spa and wellness hotels and rehabilitation centers has been determined and compared during the year 2002 in a benchmarking study by Promain Oy and VTT Building and Transport. We plan to continue interactive Internet-based monitoring of costs and consumption in the following years. The gathered current data represents the year 2001. Thirteen spa hotels and rehabilitation centers participated in this study. The data logging and booking practices varied somewhat, and in some cases a lack of data and problems in obtaining exact information hindered the comparison a little. We attempted to correct the faults at feedback meetings at the latest.
Lee, Young-Lung, Chang Jung, and Yih Yeh Kuang. "Fair Evaluation of real Estate Value in Urban Area via Fuzzy Theory." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The real estate valuation in urban area is very difficult to make a good adjustment from many effecting qualitative factors. Market data approach relies on the market information and the reasonable adjustment with less subjectivity of the appraiser. This study tries to apply Fuzzy theory to deal with the subjectivity from the appraiser in determining the comparative of the qualitative variables. The qualitative factors considered in the real estate valuation model are first determined in the model using Quantification Theory I. The 22 effecting factors are considered in the model. And we make an evaluation formula in terms of the factors that show the maximum adjustment percentage to the real estate value from the market. The preliminary results are designed by a linguistic questionnaire and are surveyed by the officers in the fields of valuation. The fuzzy linguistic method is applied for solving the subjectivity of locational adjustment caused by the appraising officers. Integrated with the results and implemented with empirical evidence is established for the fair valuation of real estate for the final valuation model using Fuzzy Quantification Theory I. In order to verify the model we take 100 samples to review each case by the established model. The estimated results are demonstrated to show the differences. The final model is applied using the verified model. The qualitative variables are considered in the real estate valuation model and fuzzy linguistic model is applied to adjust the subjectivity of the appraisal. The modeling results are also verified by the samples that show the consistence of the appraising officers when using the fuzzy valuation model. The Tainan City case study shows some applicability of this model. The further study can be applied to a metropolitan area and the modeling parameters can be more realistic.
Parlasca, Peter. "Fehmarn Belt - Enquiry of Commercial Interest - a Model for Optimising Risk Allocation in PPP Infrastructure?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Ooi, Joseph, and Liow Kim-Hiang. "Financial Structure of Real Estate Corporations: Some International Evidence." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper provides a more comprehensive understanding on the corporate financial policies of real estate organizations by examining the capital structure practices of real estate corporations across different markets and over time. The empirical evidence, based on fourteen markets in Europe and Asia Pacific, indicates that firm size, asset structure and corporate performance are significant in explaining cross-sectional differences in capital structure. Taxation, however, is not significant. From a dynamic perspective, firm characteristics have limited ability to explain year-on-year changes in leverage. In this respect, macroeconomic factors are more relevant in explaining capital structure variations across time. Although they are not significant in explaining the total change in debt ratios, firm characteristics have significant impact on the net equity and retained earnings decisions of real estate organizations. The empirical evidence suggests that large and profitable real estate organizations issue more external equity capital. Firms holding more tangible assets issue equity less frequently to avoid any dilution in their stakes.
Kania, Katarzyna. "Financing Housing Investments in Poland." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The structure for financing housing investments in Poland has been developing since 1995. The birth of an open market economy followed the enormous social and economic breakthroughs of 1989, opened new possibilities, perspectives and most of all the freedom to make decisions. However, with this freedom came new responsibilities, including the need to raise finances to purchase a flat or house. At present, approximately 2 million families have no dwelling of their own and an additional 600,000-800,000 apartments should be demolished. On average, there are 3.188 persons per apartment in Poland, as against 2.2 in Germany, where apartmenta are much bigger and better equipped. These are only a few of the housing problems that Poland faces. It is necessary to remark that these housing needs do not necessarily correspond to demand. As many of those who lack housing also lack the necessary finances, one way to encourage demand would be to provide access to various financial instruments which would help people who currently rent or live with relatives become homeowners. The basic problem in Poland is that few people use mortgage loans to buy flats. In spite of an increase in the share of housing investments financed by banks from 9% in 1998 to 21.4% in 2001. So far, most bank loans are used for repairing or remodeling apartments. Nearly 66 % of housing loans are used for these purposes, while less than 22% of funds from bank loans are used to purchas or build homes. The majority of homes in Poland are still purchased with personal savings.
Niinimäki, Esa, and Kaleva Hanna. "Finn REITs - Success Factors for Property Securitisation in Finland." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The Finnish property market shares most of the same problems with the other countries still without special legislation enabling the public tax-transparent real estate vehicles. The role of securitized real estate ownership is minimal, the institutional investors owns their real estate investments directly, the small listed sector is subject to substantial net asset value discount, and trading volumes of commercial property and thus its liquidity are low. Furthermore, in absence of tax-effective choice the pension funds are creating private property funds and due to the undervaluation of the listed real estate the public property companies are under pressure of hostile takeovers and liquidation of their assets.
Sneck, Timo. "Forecasting and guidance system combining innovation-based economic growth in the economy and demand for business premises." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The forecasting and guidance system is discussed first. Secondly the most feasible labour structure for Finland in year 2012 is presented. Third task is to point out the combination of ability of a local economy to increase the number of successful product oriented enterprises in the local economy and the new types of competent ownership of business premises. The structure of the method has been tested also in St. Petersburg. At the end some tools needed in forecasting and guidance are presented.
Camacho-Cabiscol, Josep. "Forecasting retail rents when data is scarce: the case of Portugal." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Using individual shopping centre data from Portugal, the paper compares the performance of traditional econometric techniques (i.e non-pooled estimators) and panel data techniques (pooled estimators) as forecasting frameworks. The data provided by the main Portuguese retail operator was not long enough, in some cases, to be used with traditional econometric techniques. For this reason, pooled estimators are suggested as an alternative. The paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of this approach, compared with traditional econometric techniques (TET). It shows that pooled estimators can be a good alternative to traditional econometric techniques when data is scarce. Moreover, pooled estimators provided, in almost all the cases, more accurate forecasts than TET.
Zhang, Xing, Sim Loo, and Zhu Jieming. "Globalisation and the Growth of Hong Kong real estate firms." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper is on the growth of Hong Kong real estate firms and internationalisation process. It is based on a study by the authors on the impact of globalisation on real estate industry in Singapore and Major Cities in China. The paper uses the OLI framework to explain the factors which affect Hong Kong firmsÌ FDI patterns and strategies/behavior. It reveals that internationalisation process of firms in the Hong Kong case is almost irrelevant to the firm size and capital. While market potential, firmsÌ knowledge-based advantages, and culture play a very important role in firmsÌ location choice of their investment. Internalisation is not important for the case of Hong Kong real estate firms. The growth of foreign real estate firms in Hong Kong depends on the timely repositioning of investment into areas where they can sustain their ownership and locational advantages. Timing and bargaining position with host country/regions are also key factors for Hong Kong firms to outperform other competitors.
Lutzkendorf, Thomas, and Wilhelm Martin. "Green aspects and dynamics in real estate portfolio analysis." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. An important tool in strategic decision-making for the existing building stock of housing corporations are Real Estate Portfolio Management Systems (REPM). REPMs are used to systematically plan, direct and control building stock. Their primary aim is to improve the corporationÌs effectiveness and efficiency. Models have been developed to implement the portfolio selection method (originally developed by Markovitz). These are based on a description and assessment of economic factors. Housing corporations must contribute to sustainable management and develop respective policy guidelines. In support of this process the authors recommend possible approaches for suitable tools. Approaches derive from the portfolio analysis and include, apart from redirecting the economic specifics of the housing sector, non-monetary criteria oriented along the economic dimension of sustainability (e.g. energy standard, CO_ emissions). Apart from Ïgreeningó, another important aspect is the dynamic character of this appraisal method. The originally static portfolio approach is extended by including possible future developments of portfolio indicators. The implication of developments on the corporationÌs cash flow and consequentially on the corporate value are integrated. As a result future trends in building stock and corporate development can be simulated Ò thus supporting the decision-making process for an economic, environmental and socially compatible strategy for building stocks (the principles of the ÏTriple Bottom Lineó).
Sims, Sally. "High Voltage Overhead Power Lines and Property Values: A Residential Study in the UK." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The effect of electricity distribution equipment, in particular high voltage overhead transmission lines (HVOTLs), on the value of residential property in England remains relatively unexplored due, in part, to the lack of available transaction data for analysis. In addition, property tax bands are too wide to allow small changes in value to be apparent, therefore qualitative analysis is the only statistical tool available to examine the impact of HVOTLs on residential property values. This paper compares the results of two UK studies. The first; a national survey of property valuers perceptions (Chartered Surveyors and members of the National Association of Estate Agents) towards the presence of distribution equipment in close proximity to residential property. The results suggested that the presence of HVOTLs, increased marketing time, reduced the numbers of willing buyers and reduced property value by an average of 7.5%. These results were then compared with an analysis of transaction data from a case study in Scotland which found that the presence of a HVOTL could reduce value by as much as 12% for a 3 bed semi-detached house and 13.3% for a 4 bed detached house. A parallel study of public opinion was carried out to determine attitudes towards the presence of HVOTLs near residential property and the willingness of homeowners to pay to have them removed. This paper presents the initial findings from this study.
Nappi-Choulet, Ingrid. "Higher education and initial training: An international comparative study of real estate education in business schools and MBA programs." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Real estate management post-crisis, the arrival of the Anglo-Saxons on the European property markets and the appearance of new professions linked to asset and real estate management has noticeably modified the traditional approach to real estate and the classical methods of real estate expertise and management. Funding of the real estate sector and the internationalization of real estate investments have required the appearance of new management training in real estate finance and management. For the last five years, new training programs more centered on real estate management and finance have seen their development around European countries, at graduate, postgraduate or executive levels, with the creation of new diplomas and the launching of new training programs. This is notably the case in countries like United Kingdom, Germany, France and the Netherlands. However, such initiatives of real estate courses in finance and in management inside MBA programs or Business Schools education are not yet developed in European countries. The aim of this paper is to make a comparative study of the current education in real estate finance and management in the US and non-US MBA programs and to analyse the main reasons of this delay.
Asposalo, Henri, and Oikarinen Elias. "Housing Property Portfolio Risk Reduction Through Intracity Diversification - The Case of Helsinki Metropolitan Area." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Lin, Tzu-Chin, and Lin Sen-Tyan. "How Do Property Owners Respond to Land Takings?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Vilander, Maarit, and Tuomela Antti. "Identifying Customers in Partnership Network - Case Senate Properties." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Centralised workplace and decentralised facilities management organisations combine several interacting functions. Different roles in •network service organisation` are presented. The interacting functions are divided into three organisational levels: strategic clients, network integrators, and functional service units. Strategic and operational forms of business support activities need both ways interaction. Strategic programming in partnership network is presented and the contents of each stage analysed by studying a case network environment. The presented case study function as a laboratory for the authorsÌ further case studies by demonstrating proposals, data collection plans, and relevant lines of questioning for network analysis.
McGreal, Stanley, McParland Clare, and Jones Long La Salle. "Impact of Stamp Duty Changes on the Irish Commercial Property Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In the December 2002 Irish Budget, stamp duty on all commercial transactions over ƒ150,000 was increased by 50% from 6% to 9%. This effectively means that an investor seeking entry into the Irish commercial property market is required to pay acquisition costs of 11.42%. This comprises 9% stamp duty, legal costs of 1% plus VAT, and agent/acquisition costs of a further 1% plus VAT.
Too, Eric, and Tay Linda. "Implementing construction and real estate IT education: Needs and Strategy." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Information Technology (IT) has a profound effect on modern society. In the construction and real estate industry, the advent of IT has changed the way we design, build and manage buildings. To this end, the skill base of existing professionals will have to change. This paper aims to review the current IT needs of the construction and real estate industry through a survey of 70 construction and real estate firms in Singapore. It is proposed that in the short term, existing construction and real estate educators should incorporate more relevant IT modules in their syllabi. Continuing professional development in the area of IT applications is also needed for the professionals. In the longer term, a new Construction and Real Estate IT course is needed to meet the future IT needs of the construction and real estate industry.
Azasu, Samuel. "Implementing Reward Schemes within the Real Estate Sector in Sweden - A survey." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper examines the use of incentive schemes among real estate firms in Sweden. The investigation was done using a postal questionnaire survey. The study confirms private sector firms are more likely to use incentive contracts than firms in the public sector. The study also suggests that firms employing a large number of employees are no more likely to use incentives than small firms. Annual bonuses are more important incentive items across all levels within the organisation for firms that use incentive contracts. There are as yet no industry-wide standards for measuring performance.
Nelson, Theron, and Smith Steven. "Individual Tax Rates and Risk-adjusted Discounting." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The typical procedure for estimating investment value (value to a given investor) of any incomegenerating risky asset (e.g., income-producing real estate) involves basically three steps: First, the investor estimates the stream of cash flows expected to be generated by the asset in the future. Second, the required return to the asset based is derived based on the investorÌs assessment of the relative non-diversifiable (or systematic) risk associated with the stream of cash flows. This relative risk is due to the co-variability over time between returns realized to the asset and aggregate returns to all risky assets in the entire economy (or market). Finally, the investor computes the present value of the steam of expected cash flows, using the required rate of return as the risk-adjusted discount rate. This present value is the estimate of investment value.
Kauttu, Marja. "Innovation and Place: Physical Settings of Knowledge Creation." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Current empirical evidence of the effect of physical settings on the innovation process or R&D work is scarce. Academic literature and articles on innovation and knowledge management, as well as studies on corporate real estate and facilities management, refer to the need of supporting knowledge work in companies by providing innovation-enhancing environments for the employees. A research project contributing to the issue is being conducted at the Helsinki University of Technology. The study attempts to improve general understanding and to deliver new knowledge on the interrelationship between innovation processes and place. Furthermore, the study aims to contribute to development of business practices especially in the participating companies, but also indirectly to the creation of new services in the real estate sector.
Ward, Dominic. "Institutional Investment in the UK Private Sector." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Research into residential property investment has historically been limited, yet the UK residential market has an estimated value in excess of £2 trillion and is of key importance to the domestic economy. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential of investment in the unsecuritised private rented sector to improve the efficiency of mixed asset or real estate portfolios, through the use of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). However, given the limitations and uncertainty of real estate data, including such issues as data collection methodology, asset illiquidity and indivisibility, sample selection, and appraisal smoothing, the data is 'bootstrapped' to produce a distribution of efficient frontiers to test the reliability of the results. The results suggest that the inclusion of unsecuritised residential property in the private rented sector within real estate and mixed asset portfolios is positive, but limited. The issues that are examined in this paper are of significant importance to real estate portfolio investment and allocation, and highlight the significance and potential for further research.
Song, Han-Suck. "Insurance Against Rent Increases." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how an insurance policy against major increases in rents on the housing market could be designed1. The insurance policy presented below can be an interesting alternative to tenancy rent control policies. The proposed insurance policy makes it possible for tenants to protect themselves against the risks of strong rent increases. The insurance policy can be viewed as a call option - the insurance gives the tenant the right to stay in his or her apartment, paying a rent that is the lower of the current market rent and the rent according to the terms of the insurance contract . The main points regarding the proposed insurance policy are: When leasing to a new tenant, rents are based on prevailing level of market rents. The landlord is the insurer and the landlord is obliged to offer his tenants insurance against major rent increases. Tenants who have not purchased any insurance contract, are supposed to pay rents equal to market rents whenever rents are being changed. The insurance gives the tenant the right to stay in his or her apartment, paying a rent that is the lower of the market rent and the rent according to the terms of the insurance contract (the strike rent), when the rent is reviewed. The insurance contract shall be indexed to the inflation rate or another official cost index. The maximum premium a tenant has to pay when buying an insurance policy shall not exceed a pre-specified and regulated level. The landlord is obliged to offer tenants a minimum amount of different alternatives of insurance periods, e.g. 5, 10 and 15 years.
Witkiewicz, Witold, Hoesli Martin, and Lekander Jon. "International Evidence on Real Estate as a Portfolio Diversifier." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper provides an international comparison of the benefits of including real estate assets Ò both domestic and international Ò in mixed-asset portfolios. Data from seven countries on three continents are considered for a common time period (1987-2001) to facilitate comparisons. Real estate returns are desmoothed using a variant of the Geltner (1993) approach, and Bayes-Stein estimators are used to increase the stability of portfolio weight estimations. Both unhedged and hedged analyses are conducted. Real estate is found to be an effective portfolio diversifier, and even more so when both domestic and international real estate assets are considered. The optimal allocation to real estate is in the 15 to 25% range, and remains remarkably constant in the various analyses. The breakdown of the real estate allocation between domestic and non-domestic assets, however, is found to vary substantially across countries and depending on whether returns are hedged or not.
Sanders, Anthony, Bond Shaun, and Karolyi Andrew. "International Real Estate Returns: A Multifactor, Multicountry Approach." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. We examine the risk and return characteristics of publicly-traded real estate companies from 14 countries over the period 1990 to 2001. Our data are monthly country-level commercial real estate indexes constructed by the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA). We find substantial variation in mean real estate returns and standard deviations across countries. Using various global and country-level factor models, we find that there is evidence of a strong global market risk component, measured relative to the Morgan Stanley Capital International world index, in most countries. However, even after controlling for the effects of global market risk, an orthogonalized country-specific market risk factor is highly significant, especially for real estate indexes in Asia-Pacific markets. We find that a country-specific value risk factor has some explanatory power in addition to the country-specific market factor, but U.S.- based market, value and size risk factors do not provide any additional explanatory power. These findings imply that the international diversification opportunities with real estate companies are more complex than previously thought.
Kochetkov, Yuri. "Internet as a Powerful Tool of Realtors, Developers and Investors in the 21 st Century." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In Russia intensive development of Internet technologies began in 1998 Ò 2000. Almost at the same time a new tide of mass scale housing construction evolved in Moscow region. According to some estimates, an annual assets turnover in the housing sector amounts to $8 billion. All this led to a boom in development of a new IT area - Real Estate Internet, which main aspects and results are considered in this paper. The Real Estate Internet focus lies in two areas: development and realtor business. Presently the most advanced websites generate up to 15% of apartment sales from realtors. Entering the market by a large development project with no supporting website is considered an absolute nonsense. The paper in its first part reviews approaches and developments of most recent years that have been successfully applied in advertisement and promotion of apartments and houses, and also marketing of brands of corporations and housing units in the market. The second part deals with quantitative analysis of efficiency of a realtor-investment companyÌs corporate site as a sales means in trading apartments. Statistical data are given of the site impact on the number of a) calls to the office by potential clients; b) visits (demonstrations) of apartments by clients, and c) transactions. The analysis of time rows and regression analysis of the resulted data has shown a qualitative difference of the Real Estate Internet as a marketing tool from other advertising and commodity promotion methods that are currently used in the market. In the summary the main findings are considered from the prospects of development of a most effective strategy for Internet support of realtors and development companies; a multifaceted effect of the Real Estate Internet on clients is demonstrated; quantitative projections are given for a short-term develop.
Adair, Alastair, Berry Jim, James Berry, Stanley McGreal, Poon Joanna, Norman E. Hutchison, Watkins Craig, and Gibb Kenneth. "Investment Performance within Urban Regeneration Locations." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003.

Property performance indices have invariably focused upon prime markets with a variety of approaches used to measure investment returns. With urban policy driven by the sustainability agenda, increasing attention is being placed on the re-use of existing sites and brownfield land. However, there is relatively little knowledge regarding the investment performance of property in regeneration areas. Indeed there is a perception that such locations carry increased risk and that the returns achieved may not be sufficient to offset the added risk. As a consequence major institutional funds have tended to by-pass urban renewal areas in favour of prime markets for which there is much greater information transparency. This paper presents the findings of recent research within the UK on property market performance in regeneration areas and draws comparisons to prime market locations. The paper discusses methodological issues and problems regarding the development of an urban regeneration index focusing on a beacon approach.

Watkins, David, and Hartzell Dave. "Investment Transactions in the Central Europe: Evidence of Growing Acceptance?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Starting with a complete lack of modern specified office property in 1990, the skylines of Warsaw, Prague and Budapest have undergone rapid transformations since the countries emerged from centrally-planned, command economic systems. In roughly 13 years time, real estate developers and builders have constructed approximately 3.5 million square meters of modern office space for multi-tenant use. Previous research has outlined the relationships between rents, values, construction and the stock of supply in real estate markets. DiPasquale and Wheaton (1996) lay out a framework for real estate markets as they move through the cycle. Mueller (1995) also provides a framework for analyzing cycles in real estate markets that is related to the DiPasquale and Wheaton models. Both analyses provide relevant background for development of a model of emerging real estate markets in Central Europe. This paper identifies a pattern that has played out in the development and construction of the three markets: inactivity, cautious beginnings, hypersupply and equilibrium-seeking. A survey of investment transactions in Warsaw, Prague and Budapest suggests a similar pattern with investor capital, though with a lag to the building cycle. At the same time, the decline of capitalization rates and the concurrent narrowing of the spread between high and low cap rates implies another trend at work Ò a gradual reduction in investorsÌ perception of the risk of investing in Central European countries.
Almond, Nigel, Elliot Lee, and Foxley Sue. "Irrational exuberance: the impact occupier space on the UK market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. During the late 1990s and early 2000 the Central London and South East office markets witnessed increasing levels of occupier activity. Most of this activity came on the back of continued strong economic growth, rising stock markets and a belief that growth would continue. Occupiers in sectors including Investment banking, technology and telecommunications, expanded to meet growing demand, and accommodating for future growth, leading to numerous pre-lettings of space in excess of 46,450 sq m. Following the collapse of the equity markets and economic slowdown, in what can now be considered as irrational exuberance, occupiers have been left as accidental landlords holding significant amounts of space, now surplus to requirements. In previous markets Investors and developers have controlled much of the space on the market. The current situation is somewhat different, with occupiers within City and Docklands controlling in excess of 70% of prime space on the market. As a consequence, this paper will review the market trends over the past two decades and consider the differences between the previous market cycles. This paper will then consider the reasons behind the release of space by occupiers, before investigating in more detail how this cycle differs from those in the past and the specific reasons for this. Finally, the paper will review the current and likely changes in business practice and the consequences of this for the market, both now and in the future.
Ball, Michael. "Is There an Office Replacement Cycle?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper examines whether office replacement cycles are likely to arise in the future, given the bunch nature of office building in the past into a series of building booms. Time series data on holdings of UK office buildings by investors are examined to see whether there is any evidence of a cyclical decline in building ages. It was found that, although declines are marked over time, they showed little evidence of a systematic cyclical pattern in relation to age. Estimates are then made of the outstanding stock of commercial buildings over time, which shows that the scale of new building is far more than any apparent need for replacement buildings. A series of arguments are then put forward to suggest that redevelopment of a particular age cohort of buildings is likely to be spread over a long period of time, so it is unlikely that a marked office replacement cycle will arise in the UK, or in any other country, in the future.
Lind, Hans. "Is there any useful value concept beside current market value and individual investment value." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003.

"Through history there has on a number of occasions arisen a demand for something more stable than the market value of a property. The most recent attempt is the concept Mortgage Lending Value, proposed by the European Mortgage Federation. This concept has been criticized in an article by Crosby, French and Oughton, and they argue that the concept is useless as it cannot be measured in any objective way. The reason is that the concept includes problematic terms like ""sustainable"", ""prudent"" and ""non-speculative aspects"". They propose that the concept of Market Worth should be used instead. In this paper it is argued that the concept market worth also is very problematic, as the valuer must judge what the price would be if the market were efficient. Instead it is argued that the current market value should be put in perspective by a more systematic presentation of information of the past development of the specific market. How has the value developed? How does the level of rents, yields and values compare to historical values? Presentation of this kind of information can reduce the risk of ""irrational exuberance"", and presenting this type of information is something that the valuer can do without having to know more about the future than ""the market""."

Kolbre, Ene, and Venesaar Urve. "IT Policy in Estonia and Its Influence on Real Estate Market Development." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The extended use of infocommunication technologies has turned into a great asset to enterprises, citizens and the government. A result is thorough changes both in the structure of enterprises and the government and in the skills requirements and organisation of work, as well as in relationships between enterprises, citizens and the government. Organisation of activity in enterprises and institutions with the help of infocommunication technology has been estimated to be important from the aspect of increasing productivity and competitiveness and due to its considerable impact on the whole economy (Gourova, 2002; Extend.., 2002). The European Commission initiated in the meeting in Lisbon in March 2000 acceleration of the introduction of information technology and finding joint solutions to the related problems (European Commission, 2000). The document discussing the results of the meeting mentions besides many other activities related to the introduction of information technology, acceleration of e-trade and support to small and medium-seized enterprises in high technology. Of great significance as a precondition of achieving these results and from the aspect of designing the entrepreneurship environment is the emphasis on the development of e-Government in the same document. As an answer, the Candidate Countries have prepared an action plan to support implementation of the European information society (European Commission, 2001).
Owen, Connellan, McCluskey William, and Plimmer Frances. "Land Value Taxation - An International Prospect?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper reports the progress on continuing research projects commissioned by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy (USA) in which the authors are engaged. Earlier stages of this research, recording past efforts in Britain to establish land value taxation (LVT) as a vehicle for raising local government revenues and as an instrument of land policy, were followed by recommendations for specific proposals for introducing legislation and practice as compatible as possible with the existing planning system and the British GovernmentÌs fiscal and taxation policies. This paper reviews the findings to date and widens the scope of the current examination beyond Britain into the European Union and further. Accordingly this paper addresses the potential for extending land value taxation within the expanding European Union, possibly as part of the mooted harmonisation ofPan-European taxes, which would bear comparison with extant methods in other parts of the world. Thus the hypothesis of this paper is that it is now timely and appropriate to contemplate an introduction of LVT into Britain, Europe and beyond. In support, various current pressures can be identified as accumulating for a change in taxation, particularly towards a more equitable distribution of the property tax burden and thus a fairer collection of Government revenues. Furthermore, as has been pointed out by Robertson (1998, 1999) and others, there is a present and growing movement towards Ïtaxation shiftó, that is to say, a movement to reduce taxes away from enterprise, production and income sources towards the Ïcost of using the environmentó. This, in turn, is connected to the whole theme of Ïsustainability of the environmentó and Ïsustainable developmentó arguments. But it is also relevant that Robertson has already recommended a whole raft of policies to include eco-tax reform and land value taxation, among the connected parts of a larger fiscal package. This paper sets these issues into context with the aspirations of property professions towards a commonality of standards in seeking fairness and equity in taxation matters and presents conclusions as to future prospects for land value taxation in Britain.
sterberg, Niclas Ö.. "Life Cycle Economics and Performance Based Buildings." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The main purpose of the model is that it is supposed to be used in future evaluation of buildings and to be an easy to use tool for aiding decisions. Life cycle economics is about mixing capital costs with future costs. Life cycle economics is usable when calculating over short time periods or someone building for its own management. The models used in life cycle economics are suitable for calculation in Microsoft Excel. The future is uncertain, thatÌs why uncertainties should be added into life cycle economics. By adding Monte Carlo simulation its possible to use uncertainties in calculations and get results with probabilistic outcome.
Paul, de Vries. "Local House Price Developments and Housing Supply." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. On the basis of classical economic theory, if the housing market is functioning as it should, then supply will soon respond to a shock in demand and restore reliability in house prices. However, the housing market is not functioning as it should: new supplies depend on the complex decisions of the builders, thus making it difficult to statistically express the causality between house price developments and new supplies. Housing market theory does, of course, offer some explanations for house price developments in relation to the level of new supply. Most studies suggest that macro data is unable to measure the true dependency between house prices and new building and claim at the same time that micro data sets are incomplete. In this paper we shall attempt to identify the relationship between (local) housing supply and (local) house price developments in the Netherlands. To do so we used micro data from real estate agents. Since the last decade, Dutch housing policy has been more geared towards the market and has framed its objectives accordingly. Despite the liberalization of the housing market, house prices rocketed in the 1990s and Ò although there are local differences Ò the supply turned out to be incapable of an adequate response.
Faggiani, Antonella. "Managing Development Decision Process Through Scenarios." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The purpose of the paper is to analyse the role of valuation in the property investment decision making process and to propose a new methodology to manage decision making process for development processes in urban renewal and redevelopment. The starting point is the failure of traditional tools to manage information and uncertainty in the decision making process. A new methodology provides a more environmentally valid representation of decision making behaviour and suggests the use of scenario as a tool to manage the uncertainty. The methodology suggests a model to manage the decision making process: the problem framing, the stage of scenario building, and the phase of problem solving. The problem framing is concerning with the development of the problem space. The stage of scenario building is concerned with the phase of scenario plots and the final scenarios description. The valuation and the definition of scenario strategies is the last step of the methodology. A case study tests the methodology. The case study concerns a case of urban regeneration in Venice. The importance of this case study is the actual interest of owners, developers and Public administration to start a redevelopment process. The methodology is applied to a real decision making process with the support of parties involved in the process.
Young, James. "Market Oriented Planning: A Behavioral Analysis." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
González, Marco, and Formoso Carlos. "Mass Appraisal With Genetic Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The use of mass appraisal techniques is a common practice in real estate taxation. The models of real estate market have several sources of imprecision, such as errors in the transitions between submarkets, generating difficulties to construct mass appraisal models. Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems (FRBS) are able to generate flexible systems and may be useful in considering vagueness or imprecision presents in real estate market. This paper verifies the extraction of fuzzy rules from real estate data through genetic algorithms, performing Genetic Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems (GFRBS). These GFRBS used TSK rules, which are formed by linear equations and may be seen as hedonic models. Two approaches were tested. The first one is a GFRBS based on the gross building area of the properties, tested in systems with 3 to 7 rules. In another view, a system of rules based on location of the properties was constructed, in which each rule is specialized in determined region, and contributes to a general estimate. The systems were implemented with data of the city of Porto Alegre (Brazil), comparing the fuzzy models with a traditional hedonic regression model. The results have indicated the potential of fuzzy rules in mass appraisal.
Jarmo, Suominen. "Mass Customization of Working Environment and Mobile Work." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Thériault, Marius, DesRosiers Francois, and Villeneuve Paul. "Measuring Accessibility to Urban Services Using Fuzzy Logic Within Transportation GIS." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper is an attempt to bridge the gap between, on the one hand, the mobility behaviour of households and their perception of accessibility to urban amenities and, on the other hand, house price dynamics as captured through the hedonic modelling of the Quebec City residential market. Part One focuses on designing a methodology to analyze mobility behaviour of people and to relate their sensitivity to travel time with service places location within the city so as to assess their perceived accessibility. A series of Ïsubjectiveó measures of accessibility based on actual trips made by individuals and households is built for Quebec City on the grounds of the 2001 origin-destination (O-D) survey. Part Two proposes an empirical test of the impact of accessibility on house prices. Applying hedonic modelling to some 952 single-family houses sold in Quebec City (Pop. 489 820 in 2001) between 1993 and 1996, two accessibility measures are compared (Section 4), the former being based on simulated travel times aggregated through factor analysis while the latter rests on perceived accessibility indices obtained via fuzzy logic on actual travel times. Findings firstly indicate that, while overall accessibility to jobs and services is quite homogeneous throughout the City thanks to a highly efficient highway network, there are nevertheless statistically significant differences in the way accessibility is structured depending on trip purposes and household profiles, thereby supporting the hypothesis that various types of persons experience different constraints and are not equally willing to travel in order to reach various kinds of activities. Findings also suggest that an objective measure of accessibility combining travel time indicators for the nearest service with factor analysis yields optimal results from a merely statistical point of view. Yet, resorting to subjective, and more comprehensive, accessibility indices derived from fuzzy logic, and accounting for number of opportunities, allows to investigate commuting patterns and travel behaviour with greater insight and to design trip purpose and household status-specific indicators of accessibility to urban amenities. This research leads to the conclusion that different people have a heterogeneous perception of space and thus, will adjust their willingness to pay for additional centrality/accessibility when choosing their home location depending on their needs and preferences.
Thompson, Bob, Kaleva Hanna, and Olkkonen Olli. "Measuring the performance and efficiency of property portfolio management." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Property portfolio management strategies and practices are under constant evaluation. The need for evaluating the efficiency of the selected management strategy is increasing. The need is being emphasised by the increasing number of management options and investment alternatives available for property investors. Objective information on the costs and efficiency of different management functions is needed, for example, in making the decision whether to maintain certain management functions in-house or to outsource them to service providers. However, objective and comparable information on the actual costs of different management functions is relatively difficult to obtain because of differences in management and accounting practices between portfolios. In this paper, the processes and functions of property portfolio management are identified. These consist of three core processes Ò those of portfolio management, asset management and property management. Identification of the processes and functions forms a framework for measuring the costs of different management activities. Differences between management practices in UK and Finnish portfolios are discussed. Two different investor types are identified: property companies and institutional investors. The actual level of property portfolio management costs is examined by calculating some indicators of management costs in relation to certain measures of the portfolio. Empirical evidence is gathered from annual reports of listed property companies in the UK and in Finland. Management cost information is also gathered from nine Finnish institutional investors. Possibilities for and difficulties related to the measurement and comparison of management costs are discussed.
Veli-Pekka, Niitamo. "Mobile Technology and Built Environment - Possibilities for Cooperation." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Van Straelen, Robert. "Modelling Belgian Housing Prices: a cross-sectional and time series analysis." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper presents the results of two econometric analyses using existing models applied to and elaborated for Belgian housing data. First, a cross-sectional analysis is done based on mean housing transaction prices for 43 Belgian districts. The results show that introducing a dummy variable distinguishing the French and Dutch speaking region of Belgium significantly improves the model. This finding is consistent with the dual character of the Belgian economy. Due to many reasons, but mainly because of a more severe land planning regime in the Flanders region, mean level of housing prices are quite different in both parts of Belgium. Second, a time series analysis is done to explain the development of average housing transaction prices in Belgium. Although the cross-section analysis indicated substantial differences in the level of housing prices for both parts of the country, the development of housing prices appears to be rather equal. Hence, a model explaining housing prices in a spatially aggregated way for the whole country is developed. For this purpose a pseudo ECM model based on Malpezzi is used. A related model developed for the Netherlands was also tested. However, the Malpezzi model appears to be more adequate for the Belgian situation. Finally, some additional insights about affordability of housing are provided.
Des Rosiers, Francois, Theriault Marius, and Kestens Yan. "Modelling the Impact of Accessibility to Services on House Prices - A Comparative Analysis of Four Methodological Approaches." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Pryce, Gwilym, and Gibb Kenneth. "Modelling Time to Sale of Second Hand Owner Occupied Residential Properties in Glasgow." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. How quickly owner occupied dwellings can be sold has implications for a wide range of personal economic decisions, and is potentially useful in explaining local market dynamics. Thus far, the literature on time on the market has been almost exclusively North American. This paper seeks to present one of the first econometric analyses of time-to-sale of second hand owner-occupied residential properties in the UK. The research is made possible by the recent availability of transactions data on Glasgow house sales provided by GSPC (Glasgow Solicitors Property Centre). An additional distinguishing feature of the paper is that it operates within the context of the Scottish blind or sealed bidding system of house purchase. The paper sets out a theoretical model of time to sale, which is then applied to the GSPC data. This analysis is based on the results of a series of individual hypothesis tests about time on the market that in turn inform the development of a series of hazard models under different specifications (including proportional hazards estimation, sample selection issues and bootstrapped sampling). The paper concludes by pulling together the many empirical findings of the study, assessing their relative significance for analysis, and suggests where future research might next go.
Hendershott, Patric H., and McGregor Bryan. "Modelling UK Office and Retail Capitalisation Rates: Evidence of Investor Rationality." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Fischer, Dominique. "Multi-criteria analysis of ranking preferences on residential traits." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Pair-wise comparisons assume additivity, transitivity and equal weighting of propertiesÌ traits. This paper explores multi-criteria treatments of pair wise comparisons in order to reveal the implicit hierarchical decision making process used by analysts who perform residential valuations. This treatment is presented as an extension of traditional grid treatments used extensively by professsional valuers.
Björklund, Kicki, and Kerstin Klingborg. "Negotiatiated rents ñDo they reflect Neighbourhood Quality? Empirical Evidence from two cities in Sweden ." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper aims to analyse the existence of diffentiated rents reflecting differencies in housing and neighbourhood quality. The system for rent setting in Sweden is partly based on a negotiation process in which the change in rent is an outcome of annual municipality-wise negotiations between the tenant•s association and the municipality-owned housing companies. In this negotiation there is a possibility to let rents develop differently in different neighbourhoods possibly aiming towards better correspondence of rents and tenants conceptions of housing and neighbourhood quality. It is our understanding that the negotiations in several rental housing markets the last decade has consciously aimed towards such rental adjustments. In this paper we use the hedonic method on unique data from two cities in Sweden, Gothenburg and Lule¬. The paper concludes that differentiated rents are present, hence the existing rent setting system in Sweden can be used to improve the relation between rental structure and neighbourhood quality.
Bach, Hansjorg, and Muller Herbert. "Net-based training for the real estate business." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Micelli, Ezio. "New Tools to Manage Urban Renewal Projects in Italy: the Case of the Public/Private Companies." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Björklund, Kicki, Dadzie John, and Wilhelmsson Mats. "Offer Price, Transaction Price and Time-On-Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Jones, Colin, and Wang Lulu Leish Chris. "Office Property Cycles and Macro economy: an International Perspective." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. There has been a growing awareness of the importance and nature of property cycles. There is now a considerable and growing literature on the subject. However, much of this literature is focussed within individual countries and a review by Pyhrr et al (1999) makes a plea for further research into international dimensions. The analysis of office property cycles is increasingly seen in the context of the globalisation of capital markets and the integration of national economies. This paper represents a contribution to research in this direction by focusing on the national economic influence of urban rent cycles. In addition in a world that still suffers from the paucity of property market data the relationship between the macroeconomy and urban rental trends has intrinsic potential practical investment applications in its own right.
Cieleback, Marcus. "Office Yields Across Europe: What are the Driving Factors Behind their Progression?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Yields, as an important part in property valuations and investment decisions, are reflecting the attitudes and the investment behaviour of institutional investors. In the 90ies an increasing number of studies analysed the driving factors for yield movements in the US and UK. These studies have provided significant insight on the determinants influencing yields and the importance of real estate and capital market factors. Given the lack of reliable time series data for continental Europe so far only few studies try to compare yield movements and their influencing factors across European real estate markets. The following study aims to answer the question how office market yields in different European real estate markets have evolved over time, especially during the convergence process to the Euro and what factors influenced these movements.
Hannonen, Marko. "On Strategic Optimisation of Real Estate Portfolios." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Bachofner, Monika, Haussler Matthias, and Wilhelm Martin. "Optimal Rental policies for investors and tenants." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In the paper the authors provide a model to describe market imperfections on rental markets and their impact for an equilibrium rent. Real estate differs in many aspects regarding size, site, quality, etc. Therefore, there is no consistent rental market, but the market is divided into different sub-segments. But even when considering the sub-market for only one type of building with its special features, the rents often differ significantly from one building to another. A consistent rental fee can only be observed for newly rented buildings. It is called the market rent. The main reason for differing rents is that the investors try to obtain optimal incomes during the lifetime of the rental contracts. In order to establish an optimization model, we analyze the factors that influence their rental strategies. Amongst other things, we consider the depreciation of the property depending on the quality of the tenants and the preferences of the tenants regarding the rental object. The solution of the optimization problem supports the decision-making process of investors, but also influences the behaviour of tenants. There are information asymmetries that should be removed to increase the profit of both, but there is also unilateral information that should be hidden.
Bone-Winkel, Stephan. "Partnership in Property Developments." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Conijn, Johan. "Performance Measures for the Dutch Social Housing Sector." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The Dutch social housing sector is relatively large, with a share of 35% of the total housing stock. Dutch housing associations have been financially independent since the middle of the nineteen-nineties. They now have to balance their role as property investors on the one hand, which means making a return on their investments, with their role as housing associations on the other hand, with responsibilities for the affordability and quality of social housing for lower income groups. In the latter role they are spending the money that has been earned in their role as investors. It is essential to distinguish between the two roles in order to develop performance indicators for the Dutch social housing sector. In 2002 the Aedex / IPD Social Housing Index was introduced. This index is a first step in the development of performance indicators. The Aedex Index is consistent with the other IPD indices and also takes into account the social role of the housing associations. Recently the Social Housing Central Fund has published rates of return for the social housing sector. The results of the Aedex Index and those of the Social Housing Central Fund differ substantially. In this paper we compare these methods. We will combine the advantages of both methods and propose an alternative way to develop performance indicators for the Dutch social housing sector.
McGough, Tony, Henneberry John, and Mouzakis Fotis. "Planning regimes and their impacts on local rents and local and national output." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Despite the pervasiveness of planning intervention in the land and property market, the economic effects of the planning system have been little researched. While there is a growing body of work addressing this issue in the housing sector, similar work considering the business sector is marked only by its absence. The paper describes an initial attempt to explore this subject area and, particularly, to consider the impact of planning on business rents. A full structural model of a local property market was developed. It formed the basis for the creation of a simplified fiveequation system that could be operationalised within extant data constraints. Upon application, a local effect of planning was identified that was consistent with theory. As planning regimes become tighter, the local supply of space decreases. This has a negative effect on local economic activity and a positive effect on local rents. But is the aggregate, net effect of this local planning impact reduced by spatial adjustment? A time series examination of the relationship between planning and economic growth was undertaken to explore this issue. The difference in the size of the specific local and overall national effects of planning suggests that spatial adjustment only partially compensates for the impact of the former. This is an indication that there is not a zero (local) sum to planning and that the planning system may have an impact on the level of economic activity at national level. While the study was affected by various constraints and limitations, the results, taken in the round, suggest that we have developed a theoretically robust, cross-sectional model for analysing and estimating the effect of planning on the property sector of the local economy.
Bon, Ranko, Gibson Ginny, and Luck Rachael. "Portfolio flexibility and new methods of working: a comparison of theory and practice." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Reed, Richard, and Mills Anthony. "Preferences of First Home Owners in Australia - What do they want in a House?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The factors driving demand preferences for detached housing are constantly changing and difficult to measure, and often deemed to be a complex bundle of attributes. If consideration is given to the characteristics that first home owners are looking for, providers of new housing would be better equipped to meet this demand and maximise construction efficiency. Rather than analysing sales transactions after they have been completed, this research considers aspects of new houses that first home owners are actively searching for, prior to making their purchase. The research in this paper is based on interviews with first home purchasers at a series of locations across Melbourne, Australia, who were actively seeking to purchase a house. The emphasis was placed on identifying and analysing their decision criteria, which provided an invaluable insight into their concept of a suitable residence. The data was analysed using factor analysis, which identified the core decision criteria in a new house that were most sought after.
Kauko, Tom, Goetgeluk Roland, Straub Ad, and Priemus Hugo. "Presence of water in residential environments - value for money?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The role of water in the locational bundle of residential value and choice determinants is multiple. Relevant attributes pertain to water quality, proximity and length of water frontage, view, size of water body, coastal development costs, and costs caused by flooding. They also pertain to different types of water: the sea, lake, river and so on. This is a systematic literature review of the influence of water proximity and use factors on property prices and area attractiveness within a spatial cost-benefit setting. According to the studies that were reviewed the composite effect for water quality, proximity and view generate a price premium up to ca 60% for seaside property, 25% for lakeside property, and up to 40% for a variety of other inland water bodies. In addition, few studies estimate the on-site potential for a coastal area with development restrictions as a net effect of the positive amenity benefits and negative opportunity costs to vary in the range from +21.5 to Ò 14.5%. On balance these figures point to substantial benefits of water location. However, the price impact of flood risk was quantified separately as up to 22%, and may be deducted from these figures, given a localised tendency for such hazard. Thus, it may be concluded that for the attractiveness potential of a site the environmental externalities play a large role. Furthermore, when allocating housing claims spatially using an operational model where all land uses are covered extra costs to overcome conflict and scarcity situations may arise.
Baum, Andrew E.. "Pricing the options inherent in leased commercial property: A UK case study." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper sets out the findings of a group of research and development projects carried out at the Department of Real Estate and Planning at the University of Reading and at OPS (Oxford Property Systems, a software development company) over the period 1999Ò2003. The projects have several aims. These are: to identify the fundamental drivers of the pricing of different lease terms in the UK property sector; to identify the main variations in UK lease terms; to identify key issues in pricing leases with different lease lengths and other terms; and to develop a model for the pricing of rent under a variety of lease variations. Although it is possible to model quantitatively both landlordsÌ and tenantsÌ positions, the complexity of the legal and institutional issues that influence the rental impact of lease terms makes a solution to pricing challenging. The approach of valuers and funding criteria also add complexity to the issue and add an institutional dimension to the problem, impeding the adjustment towards rational pricing. The intricacy of these issues possibly explains the conservatism of many market participants towards flexi-leases. However, it also provides a potential opportunity to market participants with the ability to accurately price flexibility in lease terms. The research uses data derived from major databases maintained by IPD and the Valuation Office, interviews and workshops with over 50 market participants (owners, letting and investment agents, valuers and rent review surveyors). The OPS software development work was based on the outputs of this research. A key conclusion of this study is that the relative stability of lease terms in the retail and office sectors reflects a widespread mutuality of interests between landlord and tenant in the status quo. Long leases provide important benefits for most retailers in terms of security of trading position and adequate write-off periods, and the fit-out costs for an office user can also encourage longer leases than might otherwise be optimal. From the landlordÌs perspective, the main factors driving the required ÎcompensationÌ for a lease term amendment include expected rental volatility, expected probability of tenant vacation, and the expected costs of tenant vacation. These data are used in conjunction with simulation technology to reflect the options inherent in certain lease types to explore the required rent adjustment. The resulting cash flows have interesting qualities which illustrate the potential importance of option pricing in a non-complex and practical way. Finally, there are interesting valuation and pricing issues posed by the introduction of a new variable, rental growth volatility, into an appraisal system.
Kuchareska, Ewa. "Problems with market value assessment on low-turnover markets - the case of Poland." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Property valuation as an attempt for market objectivisation In a market economy environment most property valuations seek the market value. Reasons for valuation such as a transfer of rights, determination of the base amount for calculating charges and taxes, seeking the value of a collateral that secures lenderÌs rights require market objectivisation. Market value, defined as the most frequent and thus the most probable price, is an attempt of such objectivisation.
Gabrielli, Laura. "Property Portfolio Construction Under Uncertainty." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The need to evaluate ÏUrban IIó socio-economic programmes financed by the European Union's Structural Funds has stressed the role of evaluation during the decision making process. The implementation of those Programmes has been a major factor behind the rapid growth in evaluation practice. Programmes co-financed by Structural Funds are extremely complex in construction and involve a large number of participants as well as numerous qualitative and quantitative factors. In this context, purely quantitative evaluation techniques are not able to provide the necessary decision making frameworks and tools to inform about the impact of interventions and the processes involved in their implementation. In addition, the complexity of these interventions is such that an evaluation consists not only of observing and analysing events, but it also requires careful structuring so that the effects of a programme can be prudently judged. In order to deal with what is a complex evaluation scenario, evaluators have to focus on the relevant factors, primarily those of the degree of complexity, and the timing of the evaluation, employing mixing and matching tools and techniques in a single evaluation method. The aim of the paper is to describe the role of evaluation in the decision making process and in the construction and implementation of Programmes; the analysis of the most used methodologies; the comparison of the best practices in the Italian financed Programmes and to understand how the evaluation could help the effectiveness and the efficiency of the investments in property markets and urban areas involved in the projects.
Schulte, Karl-Werner, Newell Graeme, and Worzala Elaine. "Property research priorities in Germany." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The empirical study has been funded by gif, Gesellschaft f∏r Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung (German Society of Property Researchers. The aims of gif are to foster teaching and research in the field of real estate and related disciplines. The Society represents an interdisciplinary membership and aims to bring together theory and practice. Thus, a key element in gifÌs strategic plan is to reveal the property research priorities in Germany. Succeeding the surveys conducted by Worzala (2000) for the USA, by Newell (2001) for Australia and by Newell/ Mc Allister/ Worzala (2003) for the UK, this paper identifies the property research priorities in Germany by conducting a major survey among institutional property investors in March 2003, with over 40 property research areas assessed. The purpose of this paper is to present these German property research priorities to enable the more effective development of a German property research agenda. According to the above mentioned surveys, a comparison of equivalent property research priorities in the USA, Australia and the UK is also evaluated.
Bulwein, Hartmund, Sturm Verena, and Zimmerman Matthias. "Property research priorities in Germany and the UK." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The aims of the gif, Gesellschaft f∏r Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung (German Society of Property Researchers) are to foster teaching and research in the field of property and related disciplines. The Society represents an interdisciplinary membership and aims to bring together theory and practice. Thus, a key element in gifÌs strategic plan is to reveal the property research priorities in Germany. Succeeding the surveys conducted by Worzala (2000) for the USA, Newell (2001) for Australia, Newell/ Mc Allister/ Worzala (2003) for the UK and by Schulte/ Newell/ Worzala (2003) for Germany, this paper aims at comparing the identified industryÌs property research priorities in Germany, Australia, USA and UK with actual current real estate research by conducting a follow-up survey among an academic control group. The control group consists of well-known real estate professors and other academics. Over 40 property research areas are assessed. According to the above mentioned surveys, a link between the industryÌs and academiaÌs priorities is drawn. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate these property research priorities to establish an effective property research agenda, together with the priorities identified by the industry.
Newell, Graeme, Mc Allister Patrick, and Worzala Elaine. "Property research priorities in the UK." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The Investment Property Forum (IPF) is a leading property organisation in the UK and has a research programme aimed at enhancing the knowledge, understanding and efficiency of property as an investment. A key element in IPFÌs strategic plan is to identify the property research priorities in the UK. To identify these property research priorities, a major survey of IPF members was conducted by the authors in January 2003, with over 40 property research areas assessed. The purpose of this paper is to present these UK property research priorities to enable the more effective development of a UK property research agenda. A comparison of equivalent property research priorities in the USA (Worzala: 2000) and Australia (Newell and Worzala: 2001) is also evaluated.
Cao, Albert. "Property valuation in China: current status and prospect for international practitioners." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The re-emergence of the property market in China since late 1980s has resulted in the rapid growth of the market for valuation services and of professional property valuation bodies. However, the valuation profession has been trapped in technical, ethical and political issues and the market is segmented due to statutory and non-statutory monopolistic practices. This paper reports the findings of a survey of the standard methods of valuation used, the codes of practice adopted, and the conflicts among the professional bodies. It evaluates the methods and codes of practices using those adopted by the RICS as the benchmark. It then analyses the role of the government and its changes to provide an explanation of the development of property valuation in an institutional perspective. Finally the paper probes the opportunities for international property valuation practitioners to participate in the market when China opens up the market to honour its commitments for the entry of the World Trade Organisation.
Fisher, Lynn, and Yavas Abdullah. "Real Estate Brokerage: The Impact of a ëraceí on incentive compatible commission contracts." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. "Standard principal-agent theory with one broker and one seller suggests that percentage commission structure fails to offer adequate incentives to evoke optimal effort on the part of the broker. This is due to the fact that a percentage contract only offers the broker a portion of any benefits accruing to the seller. The implication of such analysis being that the percentage commission contract is inefficient. This paper offers a theoretical model to investigate the efficiency of a percentage commission structure in a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) environment by using a model with multiple brokers. It proves that a percentage commission contract with multiple brokers can induce a total level of broker effort that is optimal for the seller. The results proceed from the insights of literature on Research & Development in which agents exert too much effort in an innovation race where only the successful party receives compensation. The negative externalities created by the ""race"" among brokers can be enough to offset the positive externalities created by the percentage commission structure, hence resulting in optimal broker effort level."
Sim, Loo-Lee, Zhu Jieming, and Zhang Xing Quan. "Real Estate Investment in Beijing and Shanghai: Perceptions and Realities." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper attempts to analyze the impact of institutional environment on foreign real estate investment in Beijing and Shanghai. It examines the institutional environment and real estate market as perceived by foreign property investors/developers and property consultants. It also seeks to analyze the main factors that motivate real estate companies to invest in the Beijing and Shanghai markets and the strategies which they adopt to respond to the local environment. An attempt is also made to compare these perceptions with market realities. Primary data for the analysis was obtained through interviews of public institutions, foreign investors/developers, and consultants related to the real estate industry. The key players were asked to give their views on whether the institutional environment facilitate real estate investment, which factors facilitate and constrain the functioning and efficiency of the market, and critical factors to note when entering the Beijing and Shanghai markets. The main findings show that although the authorities have been trying to improve the environment for investment, the process for property development is still very complicating and time-consuming. Although BeijingÌs pull as a political and cultural centre and ShanghaiÌs attraction as the main commercial hub are very strong, there are many constraints affecting the real estate market. The findings suggest that the institutional environment and regulatory framework present a lot of difficulties and uncertainties to foreign investors and developers.
Dupuy, Etienne, and Sallez Alain. "Real Estate Options: taking real Estate Risk Analysis Forward." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. "Real estate prices across Europe offer, for homogenous types, quite comparable yields. But are risk levels that close together? What about different lease structures and the related flexibility granted to occupiers? Bearing in mind the separation of real estate occupiers and investors markets, our analysis is conducted in the real option framework, and based on forecasted cash flow analysis. Lease lengths and flexibility have indeed been under scrutiny recently: British regulators have implemented ""the code"" to improve transparency and flexibility in lease negotiations, while in France, many institutional investors are beginning to lobby a 5-10-15 year lease structure instead of the existing 3-6-9. We analyse the different European lease structures and confront them to different market evolutions: 8000 12-year market scenarios have been modelled to reflect possible paths. We then have processed those scenarios through a system model reflecting tenants' possible decisions in different lease structures, using factors such as rental indexation, obsolescence, moving costs allowance. We have found quite different risk patterns for rental revenues, justifying (all other things being equal) the view that real estate risk differs significantly from that of the stock markets, and between countries. Lease structure can (but don't always do so) improve the expected average performance, narrow and modify the statistical distribution of outcomes of the rental revenue variable, thus decreasing the asset risk level, compared to the underlying market risk level. We provide a tool, that will be further enriched, to evaluate the lease negotiation between a tenant and a landlord."
Dixon, Tim. "Real estate, Technology and the New Economy: The Paradox of Location." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Over the last few years there has been a lot of hype about the fact that we now have a New Economy and that technological change has improved productivity, is changing work practices, and is altering locational patterns and the demand for commercial real estate as a result. My aim in this presentation is to take a more balanced, and perhaps even slightly sceptical view, and to challenge some preconceptions about ICT.
Havard, Tim. "Reflecting and reporting uncertainty in valuations: An alternative approach." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Krystaloyanni, Alexandra, and Tsolacos Sotiris. "Regime switching in yield structures and forecasting securitised real estate returns." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The predictability of real estate returns has been a subject of significant examination by real estate research. Several studies have found that real estate returns are predictable suggesting the existence of profitable trading opportunities. Empirical linear and non-linear methods have been employed, which use a number of series as predictors including interest rates and their differentials, dividend yields and inflation. The present study extends the existing work and focuses on the structure of yields between broad asset classes (real estate, equities and government bonds) and the implications for portfolio allocation decisions and real estate investment. It is based on the premise that investment asset markets are integrated and that differentials in the yields on assets trigger switching of funds among asset classes. Therefore we investigate the claim that the yield ratios of indirect to direct real estate and of real estate to equities or bonds contain useful information for determining the likely direction of future real estate returns. A Markov switching regime approach is deployed to allow for different states in yield differentials. The Markov model identifies distinct regimes for the yield ratios of indirect to direct real estate, indirect real estate to equities and direct real estate to gilts. Trading rules are developed based on the filtered Ò real time Ò probabilities of the regime switching models. It is observed that the regime switching trading rules generate a superior risk-return profile than simple buy-and-hold strategies.
Mats, Wilhelmsson. "Regional House Prices: An Application of the Swedish Housing Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. A variety of factors explains the differences in the prices of single-family houses. Changes in the gross domestic product over time are one important determinant together with changes in the interest rate. However, the scope of this paper is to explain why house prices differ from region to region. The paper follows the traditional economic theory (see e.g. DiPasquale and Wheaton, 1994) used to explain aggregated housing prices over time. That is, the developments of the house prices are a function of macroeconomic factors such as economic growth and changes in employment and interest rate. We estimate a two-equation model: first, the long-run price equation and, second, an error correction model. In this study we also estimate a spatial autoregressive model. We analyze a panel data set consisting of 2,810 observations. Our main contribution is that we have estimated the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium price for 21 regions instead of at a national level. We observed that the rate of adjustment to equilibrium price the first year varies considerably from region to region. Our conclusion is that the speed of adjustment ranges from 10Ò70 percent (around 28 percent on average) depending on the region. In regions with a low population density, we observe higher price adjustment rates. Furthermore, if the model includes a spatial autoregressive component, the parameters change only modestly compared to an OLS fix effect model. Finally, the out-of-sample prediction indicates that the regional housing price model with individual price adjustments outperforms na‘ve predictions.
Carreras-i-Solanas, Mercè, Mascarilla-i-Miró Oscar, and Yegorov Yuri. "Rental and Housing Markets in Barcelona." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The aim of the paper is to develop a theoretical and empirical framework that allows us to determine the way the housing prices evolve in Barcelona. Housing is a durable good, which involves both consumption and investment components. That is why the behaviour of market for housing differs from both financial and goods markets. We develop a model that explains long run equilibrium relation between prices to buy and to rent, as well as dynamics of deviations from this equilibrium. Recent empirical studies of housing market shows significant fluctuations over time, but they have much less short-term volatility than financial markets and the changes in house prices have a bigger impact on consumer spending than do equity prices. We test the model with the data for Barcelona for two periods: 1970-1985 and 1985-2000. The general evolution of housing price exhibits the pattern of long wave; there have been two periods of sharp increase of housing prices during the second period. The dynamics of rental price exhibits a similar pattern, but the ratio of these prices is not constant over time. We argue that the periods of relatively high housing price with respect to rental price correspond to additional demand for housing coming from investors. Conclusion of the paper includes a detection of complex non-random dynamics of the prices for housing in Barcelona and explanation of this effect with the proposed theoretical model.
Tovey, Rob. "Research and Higher Education course providers: their role in Real Estate Education." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Higher or university education must, among other things, stretch students, their minds and their imaginations. RICS with its mission to supply the profession with high-calibre professionals, who will acquire and develop a critical view of their work, feels that they must engage with research in their field. Research activity is a fundamental aspect of a universityÌs mission not only to impart information and understanding but also generate it. The very nature of the university makes it ideal for conducting research that will open new vistas, furnish alternatives and, in general, shed light on complex problems. It is for this reason that research, both in terms of the development of practical knowledge and the transfer of this knowledge to the community, cannot be considered as a university-specific activity: it is an activity essential to the proper functioning of our society. In Real Estate Education especially the involvement of professionals is essential if the research-society balance is to be maintained. Higher education institutions can create the kind of research community which will enable them to satisfy the RICS requirements but, at the same time, allow them to expand their horizons for the benefit of their students. The challenge is to try and find ways of doing this and it is here that the RICS is concentrating its efforts.
Zaleczna, Magdalena. "Restitution of Real Estate - the Polish Case." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. A lack of the conclusive settlement of property rights poses a serious problem for the Polish real estate market. The basic element of a developed real estate market is not complete. Fourteen years of transition have not produced any clear solution, successive bills have not found enough political and social support to be implemented. The suspended ultimate clarification of ownership problems in the real estate sector influences investorsÌ attitudes towards that market in Poland. It should also be remembered that an enactment of the restitution act is only a necessary precondition to begin the long process of restitution2. In all likelihood the cases will burden the market for some years to come and the current lack of any clear solution will additionally lengthen this period.
Liow, Kim-Hiang, and Ooi Joseph. "Return and Volatility Spill overs in Securitised Real Estate Markets." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper examines the dynamic relationships between four Asian property stock markets in Japan, Hongkong, Singapore and Malaysia, four European Property stock markets in UK, France, Germany and Italy; and between an equally weighted Asian and European regional property stock indices on both a long and short- term basis. Employing both Johansen multivariate cointegration analysis and extended EGARCH (1, 1) models, our results reveal that there is minimal long-term relationship between the four Asian and the four Europe property stock markets. Additionally, there is weak mean transmission and insignificant evidence of cross-volatility spillovers. The combination of these findings implies that investors would benefit from diversifying property stock portfolios internationally within Asia and Europe on both a long and short term basis. Hence the portfolio effects of international diversification through property stocks are expected to receive increasing investor interest in the international property stock markets.
Key, Tony. "Rule-Based Asset Allocation Strategies in Real Estate Portfolios." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. There is an extensive literature on persistence and mean reversion equity prices and returns, and whether or not these tendencies are strong enough to yield excess returns to portfolios based on technical trading rules. Despite the strong evidence of persistence in direct property returns at the segment level, the effectiveness of such strategies for property investors has not been thoroughly investigated. The paper presents results of simulated momentum and contrarian (buy winner or buy loser) investment strategies in UK property, using annual and monthly returns series. A variety of periods over which winner and loser segments are identified, and frequencies of portfolio reweighting, are tested. The results show strong potential gains from momentum strategies based on preceding returns over a three to twelve month period. Contrarian strategies, by contrast, perform relatively poorly. Whether these gains are attainable to real world investors depends on assumptions on transactions costs and profits. Transactions costs at the current full UK level of 7.5% for combined purchase and sale a high enough to outweigh the potential gains from any of the strategies.
Mokrane, Mahdi, Champigny Emmanuelle, and Ternisien Laurent. "Simulating Commercial Property Portfolios: an Application to French Portfolios." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The aim of this article is to present a critical approach to simulating lease structures for property portfolios invested in France. Our concern is in the feasibility and usefulness of applying simulation methods, common in finance and engineering, to real estate investment management. We begin by briefly describing the tenant-landlord relationship in France (lease length, renewal options, break option, relative negotiation power depending on the type of property: residential, office, retail÷). We then move on to modelling a probabilistic approach of the dynamics of lease events (lease breaks, vacancy duration, tenant arrival time, .). This includes analysing tenant behaviour (decision to stay or break leases, renegotiation behaviour at lease expiry, etc÷). The estimated parameters are then used as inputs to a micro-simulation of tenant structures. The original contribution at this stage lies in the combined use of historically estimated lease events parameters and forecasted rents obtained in a companion paper Champigny, Mokrane & Ternisien (2003).
Liu, Nanc, and Bauer Erich. "Some Differences of Real Estate Industry between China and Western Countries." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Meen, Geoffrey. "Some Simple Experiments in Local House Price Modelling." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper represents the second from a research programme investigating whether neighbourhood interactions are important in local housing markets. A focus of this programme is on how segregated communities arise and the role that government policy can play in promoting integration. There are a number of possible analytical approaches of varying degrees of complexity, ranging from individual choice models to more aggregative studies. In this paper, we try to draw some of the approaches together, looking at the aggregate local market effects of individual decisions. Some of the implications of the model are tested, notably tendencies towards segregation, cumulative processes of growth and decline and non-linear behaviour. Although these tests are, by no means, complete they can be seen as a preliminary to other, more resource intensive modelling work to be conducted later in the programme.
Maurer, Raimond, Reiner Frank, and Rogalla Ralph. "Statistical Properties of Securitised Real Estate Investments in Germany." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Due to the recent downturn of international equity markets the interest in real estate investments has soared. However, the well know problems of direct real estate investments complicate becoming well diversified with this investment class. Securitised forms of real estate investment can provide a solution to this problem. Shares of real estate investment companies are very popular in this context. The German market for securitised real estate investments additionally provides open ended real estate mutual funds (so called ÏDeutsche Offene Immobilienfondsó). An open ended real estate mutual funds is a pool of money form many investors, that is invested in real estate by a special investment company that acts as a trustee. Thus the individual investors are directly involved in the real estate market. This study is based on monthly, quarterly, and yearly return data from January 1975 until September 2002. It seeks to identify the financial characteristics of investments into open ended real estate mutual funds and compares them with those of other major asset classes, e.g. bonds and equities. We provide deep insight into the univariate and multivariate return characteristics of the assets. Among other things, analyses of nominal, real, and residual returns, cyclical behaviour, contemporaneous and cross correlations, lead-lag structure, and extreme comovements were applied. Empirical evidence suggests that the financial characteristics of open ended real estate mutual funds clearly distinguishes them from other (financial) asset classes. Furthermore, these characteristics are in many respects similar to those know from direct real estate investments.
Bauernfeind, Sandra. "Steerage Effects of Object Housing Subsidies." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The financing of the Austrian housing construction activities is characterised by a typical triangle between developer, public sector and capital market, lets say: equity capital, public housing subsidies and outside capital. This basic principle is applied for all dwellings Ò in single-family houses, which are more than 90% owned by private persons, and also for the dwellings in multi-storey houses which are professionally developed and rented or sold. The public subsidies still play an important role in this triangle. First I want to describe the Austrian housing stock but also the housing financing system. Than I will show some noticeable properties of the housing subsidy system. At the end I will point out several effects as well as in social, economic and ecological aspects.
Wernecke, Martin. "Structural time series analysis as a method for explorative real estate data analysis, simulation and forecasting." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The use of time series analysis in real estate related data analysis and forecasting is not yet prevalent in Germany. Potential reasons are insufficient data, high fragmentation of the markets, and a practitioner-driven preference of qualitative forecasts. Deviations from the mainstream are dominated by standard linear regression techniques, which suffer from strong assumptions such as linearity and parameter constancy. A powerful alternative is offered by the Structural Time Series Analysis approach (STSA), that describes the components of time series in a clear and unambiguous manner and pursues a straightforward approach to forecasting. Furthermore it allows to explicitly include cyclical components, which are known to be a common feature of real estate time series. And while the mathematics involved in the estimation process are complex, the use of a software tool called STAMP (Structural Time Series Modeler and Predictor) renders this method applicable also for statistically trained practitioners. In this article a closer look is taken at the advantages and disadvantages in comparison to other dynamic modeling approaches, making use of a practical example with rent data of the Frankfurt office market.
Mouzakis, Fotis, and David Richards. "Structural variation in commercial property occupier markets - A panel data study of European office centres ." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Although partial equilibrium neo-classical models have been established as a theoretical foundation for applied studies in a wide range of markets, but there is a continuing dispute about their effectiveness in the case of commercial real estate. The blame for this indecisiveness is commonly put on the complicated structure and limited quality and availability of data. This paper employs a standard neo-classical model in a joint analysis of the major European office markets, and develops a generalised modelling umbrella for this class of markets, using contemporary Panel Data methodology. Initially we examine the nature of structural variations and then attempt to explain the causality of structural variability on the basis of the same determinants, i.e. demand, supply and prices/rents. This approach allows each individual market structure to be compared to others and the establishment of a solid microeconomic foundation as a protection from misleading modelling conclusions cause by problems in the data. Based on the comparative performance of both Error Correction and Autoregressive Distributed Lag models inferences can be drawn about intra-market dependence and markets comparative speed of adjustment to equilibrium and efficiency.
Eamonn, D’Arcy, and Hanna Kaleva. "Ten Scenarios for the Future of Real Estate Services." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper presents the results of the Futures project, which examined the future of real estate services from a number of different perspectives drawing on empirical evidence collected in Finland, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States. The paper takes the many results generated by the project and cross cuts them into ten scenarios each focusing on different aspects of the future of real estate services and in the case of one, the future of professional bodies in the sector. The themes chosen span fundamental challenges facing the sector, such as integration, firm size, training, client relationships, service products and ethics. Each contains an important message for the future of the sector but many of the messages are also interdependent. The scenarios presented provide unique insights into the business strategy of the sector in 2002, itÌs potential future direction and the future role of professional bodies in the sector.
Patel, Kanak, and Shuie Pochin. "Tenants' Search and Vacancy in Retail Leasing Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Miller, Norman, Florance Andy, Stevens Brad, Markoysan Sergey, and Op t’Veldt Hans. "The 9/11/2001 impact on trophy and tall office property." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In this study we focus on the possible impact of 9/11 on tall and trophy office buildings for market behavior that could influence value. We find little evidence of any significant departure from general market trends for tall buildings or most Ïtrophyó property, yet there appear to be some effects on returns and values for a small subset of truly famous buildings in both New York and Chicago. Using an additional survey aimed at property managers we find little evidence of tenant flight away from tall buildings, or dense urban areas, yet property managers do expect significant design changes in the future as a result of 9/11 and most have tightened security procedures.
Newell, Graeme, Brown Stephen, and McAllister Patrick. "The Accuracy of Property Forecasting in the UK." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Property forecasting is an important component within a property investment strategy. While all forecasting is subject to some degree of uncertainty, a high degree of sophistication has been developed over recent years, with a range of quantitative and qualitative procedures now used in property forecasting. In the UK, the Investment Property Forum (IPF) has conducted a quarterly survey amongst independent property forecasters since 1998. These surveys collect information on future rental growth, capital growth and total returns from a range of UK property forecasters, including property advisors, fund managers and equity brokers. The purpose of this paper is to utilise these IPF surveys to compare these property forecasts with actual property performance to assess the accuracy of property forecasting in the UK over 1998-2002. In particular, the accuracy of this property forecasting will be benchmarked against a number of alternative property forecasting strategies to assess the Ïadded-valueó of property forecasting in the UK.
Suarez, Jose. "The Activity of Local and Foreign Real Estate Investment Funds in Spain." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Walzel, Barbara, Focke Christian, and Kunath Volker. "The Applicability of the Shopping Centre Concept to Middle and Eastern Europe - The Example of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. A decade has passed since the fall of the iron curtain. Retail markets in Middle and Eastern European Countries (MEE) undergo significant changes. Western real estate developers enter these markets and start to construct retail space according to their standards and concepts. Nevertheless the concept of the city-integrated shopping centre has only been built during the last few years. As the development of shopping centres in Eastern The Applicability of the Shopping Centre Concept to Middle and Eastern Europe page 2 Germany after the reunification has shown, especially the non-integrated shopping centres can pose serious problems to the cities and their real estate markets. This paper investigates whether western retail concepts such as shopping centres are likely to be successful in MEE and which adjustments to the concept may have to be made. To limit the scope of the investigation we focus on shopping centres in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. First a brief overview is given of the general economic environment with respect to retail trade in the subject countries. Then the history of shopping centre development in these countries is lined out. After that we report key findings on success factors for shopping centres. These findings originate from interviews and surveys among the target group of retail development companies in the Western European shopping centre development sector. The conclusion of this paper is that the concept of shopping centres is generally applicable to the countries in MEE. However, attention has to be paid to cultural preferences and economic possibilities and limitations of the population.
Sahk, Kaarel, and Jaan Miljan. "The Appraisal of Constructions Value on the Different Stages of Construction Life Cycle." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Sahk, Kaarel. "The Appraisal of Historical Properties." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Wu, Hao. "The Beijing Residental Property Market - The Potential Impact of the 2008 Olympics." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Dunse, Neil, Norman E. Hutchison, and Goodacre Alan. "The cat, the dog and the rabbit: Goodwill and trading-related valuations." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003.

Guidance Note 1 of the Red Book (RICS, 2003) states that the valuation of an operational entity includes four components: the land and buildings; the trade fixtures and fittings; the trading potential, excluding personal goodwill; and the benefit of any transferable licenses and consents. While four separate components of value are identified, the market value figure reported to the client is invariably a global sum, which is not disaggregated. However, values may need to be apportioned for a number of reasons, most notably for stamp duty and balance sheet purposes. Accounting changes in recent years have increasingly recognised the importance of intangible assets such as intellectual capital and goodwill. Similarly, recent tax changes demonstrate the governmentÌs acceptance of the importance of such items in achieving and maintaining business competitiveness. This paper has two key objectives: first, to analyse the application of the Red Book to traderelated valuations, paying particular attention to the treatment of goodwill and second, to critically evaluate the accounting treatment of goodwill and in particular the application of Financial Reporting Standard 10. In order to understand the workings of the market, the corporate hotel sector was used a case study. The key findings of the research are that valuers expressed considerable unease with the apportioning of market value between tangible assets and goodwill, There was no consensus on how (or if) goodwill could be measured reliably. Second, that the valuation methods adopted are, to a degree, na‘ve. While explicit changes are made to the cashflow projections, there is insufficient appreciation of the changing risk profile that might lead to an adjustment to the earnings multiplier. The accounting difficulties and inconsistencies concerning goodwill arise largely because of inadequate valuation methods. Recent tax changes also point to the need for a robust and defendable valuation methodology. Application of one such theoretically sound approach to valuing goodwill (the bridge model) is illustrated in this paper. While the research focused on the corporate hotel sector, the findings have wider implications for other sectors of the market where operational entities are valued with regard to their trading potential.

Rodriguez, Carlos. "The change of cycle for commercial property with its implications in the Spanish investment market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Reed, Richard, and Greenhalgh Emma. "The Changing Role of Caravan Parks as a Housing Alternative and Implications for the Real Estate Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Caravan parks in Australian capital cities have provided a source of housing at the lower end of the market for many years. This includes opportunities for both private rental and home ownership, and this form of housing type is considered to be an accepted and viable private sector alternative to low cost housing. However, emerging trends in the property market have threatened the viability of caravan parks, which are commonly valued on an income basis. For example, a recent phenomenon has been the closure of caravan parks for higher and better land uses, such as medium density accommodation. This is partly due to typical caravan park attributes, which are commonly large level parcels of land located on main roads with accompanying high exposure. In order to maintain or increase income levels, some caravan parks have focussed on more profitable short term tourist opportunities rather than traditional long term housing. Whilst the closure and conversion of caravan parks raises crucial questions for Australian social and housing policy, there are also implications for the broader property market. This paper examines the changing role of the operation of caravan parks, with the emphasis placed on their economic feasibility. The research is based on a survey of 30 caravan park operators in Queensland, Australia. The factors influencing caravan parks are identified, and suggestions to address the changing role of caravan parks are canvassed.
Siniak, Nikolai. "The conception of real estate higher education in Belarus." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The real estate market is rather new sphere of activity in Belarus, distinguished specificity and requiring serious professional training. Nowadays the market becomes more civilized and we notice increase of professions amount in the real estate market. The analysis of a condition of the Belarusian real estate education experience shows, that the main problems here are: absence of unity in understanding common and especial in training of different real estate specialists, different understanding of a necessary level of training, absence of unity in understanding of the contents of training programs on various directions of professional activity in the real estate market. The common problem for all specialties and specializations in sphere of the real estate is the absence of the common requirements to such education. To overcome difficulties it is necessary to use of the international experience and take into account specificity of Belarusian universities. It is required the creation of the coordination centers in sphere of education (including distance learning) and scientific researches in the real estate sphere in Europe. ERES could be the initiator and organizer of such centers. The problem of standardization and certification of education in the real estate sphere is also actual.
Holzmann, Christoph. "The Construction of a Real Estate Confidence Index for the German Real Estate Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Already in the first half of the past century, cycle researchers found that expectations played a major role in the formation of business cycles. Based on this understanding, institutions in all industrialized countries developed business cycle surveys in order to identify the expecta-tions of market participants and to derive business cycle indicators from these data. Since most of the resulting indicators relate to the economy as a whole and since there is only a loose rela-tionship between the business cycle of the economy as a whole and the business cycle at an industry or company level, they are of limited value to decision makers in individual industries such as real estate. Only recently, researchers especially from the United States have started to construct real estate confidence indices for the projection of the real estate business cycle. The paper analyses the potential of constructing a real estate confidence index for the German real estate market as a new tool to forecast the real estate business cycle. International real estate related confidence indices are analysed and compared to proven sentiment indicators from other industries. Based on the findings of this analysis, an individual real estate confidence index approach is derived for the German real estate market. Finally, the paper provides a first frame-work for the implementation of this new approach and highlights its strengths and weaknesses.
Conijn, Johan. "The Dutch Social Housing Sector: a Case of Over maturation." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Brunes, Fredrik. "The efficiency of the market for office blocks, an empirical study of Kista - pit‰isi siirt‰‰ TO / PEÖ." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Kista is one of the largest workingarea in Sweden. It has a history of approximately 30 years. During this period the area has expand very much and has today an officespace of approximately 1 000 000 square meters. The area has had four periods of expansion, a slow expansion in the late 70Ìs and early 80Ìs, a boom in the late 80Ìs, a slow expansion in the 90Ìs and again a boom in the late 90Ìs. The market for office space has declined a lot during 1999- 2002. From having an excess of demand in the 90Ìs there are indication of an excess of supply the next few years. The purpose of this paper, as the title suggest, is to find out how well the market for building respond to basic economic fundamentals. The focus is on the supply side of the market. For testing the market efficiency Tobins q have been used. Endogenous variable is the stock of office and exogenous are the construction cost, market price for office building, a time factor and interest rate. The data for the empirical study are from 1980-2000. The results, at this point, show that with our construction of Tobins q the decision to build seem to be in some case irrational. It is difficult to find clear correlation between fundamentals and construction of officespace. One reason why there is a low correlation between Tobins q and construction could be that the speed of adjustment is very low.
Erol, Isil, and Guzel Alper. "The Elasticity of Capital - Land Substitution in the Housing Construction Sector of a Rapidly Urbanized City: Case Study of Ankara." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the elasticity of capital - land substitution in the housing construction sector of Ankara, which is the capital city of Turkey and a rapidly urbanized city. The theoretical basis of our study is the housing production models, which use the basic concept of elasticity of substitution between land and non-land factors in order to explain the land-use pattern of cities. Using a variable elasticity of substitution (VES) production function and cross-section data, the paper provides new information to compare the long term housing supply elasticity of Ankara with that of the US and the UK cases. Elasticity of capital Ò land substitution for Ankara (from 0.49 to 0.95) is found to be similar to that of American empirical studies, which range from 0.5 to 1.13 and it is more elastic than the UK case studies of the Bristol (0.18) and Cambridge (0.23) housing markets. The paper also discusses the spatial differentiation of elasticity of substitution within the city in order to explain the spatial structure of the housing market in the long run.

Belniak, Stanislaw. "The Future of Polish Real Estate Market." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Polish real estate market is still displaying downturn characteristics, the consequence of a difficult financial situation of the whole country. Real estate requires considerable financial outlays. At the same time, there are no free assets for investment on the market and business entities have no liquidity. Consequently, these conditions exert negative impact both on the number, as well as, the volume of transactions. In 2001 the growth rate of Polish economy declined. The growth rate of GDP amounted to 1.2%, budgetary deficit equaled Ò4% of GDP, and the inflation rate stood at 4.5% In the course of the election campaign for the Polish Parliament an ominous Ïbudgetary holeó was discovered and the situation of the economy was made even worse by galloping unemployment and discouraging proposals of budgetary reforms and tax hikes. 2002 brought a further decline of GDP. The total value of real estate transactions dropped to one million PLN of GDP and unemployment index reached 18.75. Yet, inflation settled at 1.8% which was a positive indication.
Eves, Chris. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Residential Property Values." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Over the past ten years various residential property markets throughout Australia in general and NSW in particular have been subject to substantial natural disasters. These occurrences have included floods, bushfires and hailstorms. In extreme cases the actual rectification costs have been up to AUD$1.5 billion, which occurred with the severe hailstorm in Sydney in April 1999 and cyclone Tracey in Darwin in 1974. Natural disasters such as severe storms and hailstorms have tended to be very indiscriminate in relation to frequency and the actual location of damage, whereas the nature of bushfire and flooding tends to be more defined. Although these extreme natural disasters tend to be infrequent, occurrences of floods and bushfires in residential property areas are more frequent, particularly as urban sprawl encroaches closer to national Parks, State recreation Parks and State forests. Considerable work has been carried out on flood effects on property markets by Bell (1999), Donnelly (1988), McClusky and Rausser (2001), Skrantz and Strickland (1987) in the US, and Chou and Shih (2001) in Taiwan. Fibbens (1994), Lambley and Cordery (1991) and Eves (1999, 2001, 2002) have carried out studies in relation to the effect of flooding on residential property values in the Sydney region, including the tracking of flood prone property values over time. However, no similar rigorous research has been carried out in relation to the impact of bushfires on residential property markets in the Sydney region. Residential property in Sydney is confined to the Sydney basin, which is bounded by National Parks to the north, west and south and encompasses the Georges, Parramatta and Hawkesbury river systems. Over the past ten years there have been a number of severe bushfires in the Sydney region that have resulted in substantial loss of property and in extreme cases human life. In all these cases the bushfires have commenced and or travelled through National Parks and bushland reserves, with houses adjoining or in close proximity to these parks being at the most risk of fire destruction or damage. This research project will identify those streets in Sydney that have been subject to significant full as well as partial home loss from bushfires over the period 1988 to 2002. The transactions and value of property in these locations will be tracked both before and after the fire event to quantify if the bushfires have had any significant impact on buyer behaviour and if the values of these properties in these particular streets have been affected, compared to other properties in the same location.
Ghyoot, Valmond. "The Lease V Buy Decision in Real Estate: Case Study." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Qualitative aspects of the real estate lease versus buy decision and general considerations during the financial analysis are discussed. A recent case is used to illustrate how the decision was made by a state-subsidised university. Because of its subsidised operation, the usual financial analysis was inconclusive. The matter was resolved by also modelling the cash flow of the opposing party, to determine what the university was giving up. An appendix provides basic real estate lease principles and terminology.
Jayne, Michael, and Syms Paul. "The leasing and management of industrial buildings in the UK: potential environmental liabilities for landlord and tenants." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Implementation of Part IIA of the Environmental Protection Act 1990, on 1st April 2000, introduced a new Îcontaminated landÌ regime in England, which has since been extended to the rest of the UK. This imposes a regime of Îstrict liabilityÌ, in terms of contamination, and brought to the fore issues of fundamental importance for everyone involved in the processes of letting and managing industrial properties. These have implications for the owners, occupiers and managers of such properties; indeed they go to the very heart of land ownership, having potentially adverse effects on both income and value. The legislation means that landlords and their leasing and managing agents may have to make important changes to the ways in which they negotiate the leases of industrial premises and the mechanisms they employ in the future management of those buildings. Similarly, tenants and their advisers may have to give closer consideration to the environmental liabilities they may be about to incur, especially where tenants carrying out potentially contaminating activities have previously occupied buildings. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) provides its members with guidance as to the valuation of properties affected by the presence of contamination (RICS, 1995) as well as to the role and responsibilities of the surveyor when undertaking property inspections (RICS 2000). By its very nature, the advice given in the RICS guidance is broadly based and does not identify the many ÎpitfallsÌ that may confront a surveyor. The study reported in this paper has examined current practices in the UK and has identified areas where changes may be required, or be desirable, in order to arrive at recommendations as to Îbest practiceÌ. The work is being undertaken in three phases, a questionnaire survey involving leasing and managing agents, real estate owners, lawyers and bankers; interviews with a representative sample of persons from the survey and a consultation stage with representative organisations including the RICS, the Environment Agency, British Property Federation, British Bankers Association, British Insurance Association, the Law Society and the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). This paper reports on the findings arising from the questionnaire phase and subsequent interviews with respondents.
Temple, Marion, and Boon Ann. "The Local Economy - Property in the Knowledge Based Economy." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The links between location theory, local economic development, local clusters and property in the new economy are investigated. The authors draw upon both planning and economics literature to investigate the drivers of local economic development. People increasingly attribute value to a healthy environment and a healthy society as well as economic growth narrowly defined, and so sustainability is a key issue in local economic development. Both economics and planning literature emphasise the role of external economies of scale in the new economy, exhibited as clusters. The implications of the new economy for the property industry are briefly considered before the connections between location theory and planning theory are more fully investigated. The observed trend towards counterurbanisation and the critical factors underpinning cluster development are then discussed. The paper shows that several approaches in the planning and economics literature conclude that external economies are vital drivers of success in the new economy and are reflected in cluster development. To provide profitable locations the property industry must be cognisant of industryÌs desire to cluster in locations that contribute value added to the production function. But local economic development based upon successful clusters will not necessarily be sustainable. Left alone, the property industry can achieve higher profits by building upon industryÌs expressed preference for counterurbanisation. Policy implications indicate that government must be aware of the infrastructure needs underpinning cluster development and encourage such development in locations that contribute to sustainable local economic development.
Yuo, Tony. "The management of Positive inter-store externalities in shopping centres." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Positive inter-store externalities, sometimes termed as demand externalities (Eppli and Benjamin 1994), are the positive effects generated from one or more tenant(s) to other tenant(s) without consent and compensation between the generator and receiver. In previous research, demand externalities were usually seen as the synonym of customer-spillover effects generated from anchor tenants (Gatzlaff, et al. 1994; Pashigian and Gould 1998). These demand externalities have been recognized as significant agglomeration economies that generate increased returns in shopping centres. However, agglomeration economies in shopping centres could be more than just the spillover of customer drawing power of the anchor tenants. Under a wider definition of positive inter-store externalities, these inter-store effects should have a broader content including compatibility and complementarity among tenants, enhancement of the shopping atmosphere and resulting sales efforts, shopper circulation and the public services and facilities provided by the shopping centre. These positive interactive effects are the sources generating increasing returns.
Hoesli, Martin, and Hamelink Foort. "The Maximum drawdown as a Risk Measure: the Role of Real Estate in the Optimal Portfolio." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In this paper we investigate the role of real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio when the maximum drawdown (hereafter MaxDD), rather than standard deviation, is used as the measure of risk. The recent crash of equity markets around the world, and the consequences this has had on the balance between assets and liabilities for most pension funds, have lead to an increased interest in alternative measures of risk, both from a theoretical and a practical point of view. We argue that the MaxDD concept is one of the most natural measures of risk, much more so than measures such as Valueat- Risk (VAR) which have gained popularity in recent years. To assess the practical implications of the use of the MaxDD, we investigate optimal portfolios obtained under the MaxDD criterion for a Swiss institutional investor who is faced with legal constraints on the weights that can be allocated to the various asset categories. The asset classes considered are: Swiss and foreign equities, bonds, and indirect real estate, as well as Swiss direct real estate. We show that most portfolios optimized in Return/MaxDD space, rather than in Return/Standard Deviation space, yield a much lower MaxDD, while only a slightly higher standard deviation (for the same level of return). The reduction in MaxDD is highest for portfolios situated halfway on the efficient frontier, typically close to those held by pension funds.
Moriizumi, Yoko. "The Optimal Timing of Housing Tenure Transition." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Sahk, Kaarel. "The Ownership Reform and Housing Policy." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Higgins, David. "The Predictability of New Office Supply." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper examines how accurate property experts have been in forecasting one and two year office supply. The study covers 12 years of new supply and refurbishment forecasts for Australian state capitals. A range of statistical tests shows that the expert's forecasts for new supply and refurbished space provided a poor indicator of actual office supply. The margin of error suggests that property experts' assumptions on the timing of future supply were imprecise with the trend to overestimate new and refurbished supply, apart for year two refurbishment forecasts, which underestimated future refurbished space. During the office supply cycle, the forecast accuracy varied, with relatively good forecasts for new supply during the oversupply period, compared with high forecast error during the low supply period. A more robust analysis of future supply could be achieved using probability analysis on the timing of new supply, and employing econometric modelling techniques for refurbishment forecasts to link property and space market conditions to office lease expiry profiles.
Toda, Yasushi, and Nozdrina Nadezhda. "The prices of apartments in Moscow in 2002 and their spatial distribution." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Zumpano, Leonard, and Levainen Kari. "The Privatization of Real Estate Related Public Goods and Services in the United States and Finland; A Comparative Study." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. During the last three decades the privatization or outsourcing of what has traditionally been considered public goods and services has become commonplace. Many claim that privatization originated in the U.S.; some say that it started in Great Britain. Wherever it began, the forces and factors contributing to the devolution of public services to the private sector are common to all countries. Governmental budgetary constraints and the need for greater cost containment, along with calls for greater governmental accountability continue to fuel interest in outsourcing and facilities management.
Lux, Nicole. "The Relationship between size, diversification and risk in German Real Estate Investment Funds." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The transparency of the German property investment market has increased significantly over the last years, but there is still a lack of market analysis in the area of performance, risk, diversification and portfolio construction. This paper aims to test the empirical relationship between portfolio size, diversification and risk in institutional real estate portfolios in Germany during 1997-2002 to determine the optimal portfolio size and sector attribution. General financial risk analysis suggests that there is an inverse relationship between portfolio size and risk, in other words, the greater a portfolioÌs asset size, the lower its risk. Thus reflects the fact that portfolios with greater asset size have a greater potential of diversification to lower portfolio specific risk. Diversification takes many forms, it can be sectoral/regional or it can be associated with any other asset characteristics. The paper will explore the different strategies of diversification and its impact on portfolio risk. With this analysis the paper makes a valuable contribution to real estate investment analysis with a European-wide focus. It adopts approaches previously used in the UK property market and applies them to the German market and thus increases the comparability and transparency of European real estate markets.
Lee, Stephen. "The Return Due to Diversification of Real Estate to the US Mixed-Asset Portfolio." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Trello, Jesus, and Serret Alfredo. "The Risk-Free Period on Mortgage Business." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Let us define method as Ïthe process which is follow by science to discover the truth and to demonstrate itó2. We believe that in the mortgage business, methods should be used that permit the calculation of the true real risk which is borne in the financing of housing with mortgage guarantees. The objective of this paper is to search for and to measure the risk in mortgage activity in order to answer the key question: when is the point in time in the life of the mortgage after which the maximum receivable debt for a mortgage loan (ML) is always less than the current value (CV) of the mortgage guarantee if the loan is foreclosed? The aim of this paper is to introduce the concept of ÏRisk-Free Periodó into the methodology for analysing housing mortgage loans, which can be extended to any type of property guarantee. The objective is to demonstrate that after a specific moment in time in the life of all mortgage loans, the possibility of losses through default is zero, because the outstanding receivable debt (the outstanding capital plus the accrued interest receivable and foreclosure fees) is covered by the sum awarded after foreclosure though public auction of the property which was put up originally as a guarantee of the mortgage loan.
Taltavull de La Paz, Paloma. "The Role of Housing in the Business Cycle." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Sotiris, Tsolacos. "The role of sentiment indicators in real estate yield forecasting." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. 1. Introduction Real estate yields are important concepts in real estate investment. They indicate the rate of return from investing in real estate. Yield movements signal investorsÌ attitudes towards property and provide timely information on investment demand for property. Yields are also fundamental to the valuation of real estate and hence to the determination of capital values and total returns. Short- and long-term projections of capital values and returns require an estimate of the future value of yields. Given that a larger number of funds are now valued more frequently (monthly and quarterly) yield variation is inevitably under constant scrutiny. Understanding the movements of yields is a complex exercise. This is because changes in yields are driven by several factors. Yields adjust to changing conditions in the occupier market and the risks posed to investors in terms of rent voids, adverse rent growth and other. Yields are also linked to the wider capital markets and therefore the variation in government bond yields and equity yields is expected to influence real estate yields. The changing perceptions of investors of the relative risks from investing in property (changing risk premia) will also impact on real estate yields. Empirical work on yields is based on models, which factor in occupier market conditions and influences from the wider investment environment. Yields encompass an expectation element about the occupier market and risk premia. It is therefore conceivable to employ sentiment indicators to capture more directly such expectations and assess the impact on yields. Mainly these indicators are survey data that are considered to convey useful information complementing official data and contributing to a better assessment of the ÎtrueÌ state of the economy or the industry. They are well publicised and monitored by the wider investment market to gauge trends in sectors and the overall economy (for example the CBI and CIPS surveys in the UK, the Ifo surveys in Germany and INSEE surveys in France). One of the reasons for looking at the readings of these indicators is to discount future movements in the property market through the appropriate adjustment in yields and receive signals about the likely direction of the next movement in yields. The present investigation focuses on the responsiveness of retail yields to survey series, which capture sentiment in retail business. More specifically retail yield outcomes are related to four survey based series: consumer confidence, confidence in the retail sector, the expectations of retail sales and the expectations of distributive trades. These series are expected to reflect the influences from the risk free asset market and provide timely information on the state of retailing. This study produces empirical evidence on the success of the indicator variables to predict the direction in retail yield changes. A parallel to this is the explanation put forward for the low correlation of retail sales and retail equity prices. It is argued that when retail sales volumes fall share prices in the retail sector are not going to fall. This is because valuations in the retail sector are already marked down in anticipation of a slowdown so that when the official statistics are released the bad news has already been discounted into share prices. In a similar way yields may shift to discount information about the business of retailing and the retail property market on the basis of sentiment indicators. Studying the predictive power of sentiment indicators for retail yields should not been seen an exercise that supersedes any structural modelling of yields. But providing empirical evidence on the usefulness of these indicators supplements the forecasts produced by other modelling approaches. Empirical evidence on the relationship between yields and expectations or sentiment indicators will inform investors as to the weight they should attach to their signals for the direction in retail yields. This information becomes also valuable given the production lags associated with official real economy data and the updates of economic forecasts. Moreover, there is a stronger market need for more frequent assessments of yield trends especially in periods of uncertainty. The remainder of the paper is structured in four sections. Section two presents findings on the determination of yields from a range of studies. The literature review is followed by a discussion of the methodology that is deployed in this study in section three. Section four presents the empirical estimates and the output of the forecast exercise. Finally section five discusses the implications of this study.
de, La Paz Paloma. "The Spanish Housing Boom." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Barot, Bharat, and Yang Zan. "The stock-flow model for Sweden and the United Kindom. Econometric Analysis for the period 1970-1998." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. We estimate quarterly dynamic housing demand and investment supply models for Sweden and the UK for the sample period 1970-1998, using an Error Correction Method (ECM). In order to facilitate comparisons of results between Sweden and the UK we model both countries identically with approximately similar type of exogenous variables. The long run income elasticity for Sweden and the UK are constrained to be 1.0 respectively. The long runs semi-elasticity for interest rates is 2.1 and 0.9 for Sweden and the UK. The speed of adjustment on the demand side is 12% and 23% while on the supply side is 6% and 48% for Sweden respectively the UK. Granger causality tests indicate that income Granger causes house prices for Sweden, while for the UK there is also a feedback from house prices to income. House prices Granger causes financial wealth for Sweden, while for the UK it is vice versa. House prices cause household debt for Sweden, while for the UK there is a feedback from debt. Interest rates Granger cause house prices for Sweden and the UK. In both countries TobinÌs q Granger cause housing investment. Generally the diagnostic tests indicate that the model specifications were satisfactory to the unknown data generating process.
French, Nick, and Gabrielli Laura. "The Uncertainty of Valuation." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Valuation is often said to be Ïan art not a scienceó but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.
Liao, Pen-Chuan. "The Urban Development and its housing pattern during the process of modernization - the case study of a Chinese place in Taiwan." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In the fifty years of Japanese colonial governing, the colonial, assimilation and capitalization policies of Taiwan GovernorÌs Office laid a solid foundation for the modernization of Taiwan. The formation of Hsi-Lo place under imperial colonialism can be divided into three phases: phase of the construction of colonial system 1895 1902 , phase of the capitalization of agriculture society 1902 1936 , and phase of urban development 1936 1945 . This article applies the historical interpretation method of Humanistic Geography approach to interpret the formation of the Hsi-Lo place during the Japanese occupation by fieldworks and historical texts. And we can find that the spatial pattern and the colonial spatiality in Hsi-Lo. The interpretation of the Hsi-LoÌs placeness in this article just shows the formation of the rural town in Taiwan during the Japanese colonial era.
Weber, Bruce R.. "The Use of GIS for Situs Analysis ." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The focus of this research paper is the use of geographic information systems (GIS) for situs analysis as part of the valuation of a major retail redevelopment. This analysis was done as part of the research for the proposed redevelopment of a retail site with known groundwater contamination issues resulting from its prior use as a regional mall. The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors recognized the importance of the concept of the spatial analysis of locational attributes in their RICS Practice Qualifications (2002). It refers to the process as Geomatics, which is listed as a core competency in their educational requirements. Appraisal organizations elsewhere have not done so. The research paper uses GIS for in analyzing the rates of absorption of new shopping centers in the Los Angeles Basin vs. access, competition, trade area demographics, and resultant values. If the technique had been part of conventional appraisal practice, it could have warned the developers of major retail centers of the major financial problems that subsequently occurred. The research paper recommends including GIS, fundamental market analysis, and situs analysis as international Best Practice techniques for real estate appraisal. It is an opportune time to identify the Best Practices for valuation that are most likely to lead to the most accurate appraisals for the newly emerging international valuation standards.
Weston, Richard. "Towards a Realist Theory of Market Sector Housing Production: questionnaire evidence of house-builder behaviour." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Yamamura, Yoshiro, and Hidano Noboru. "Transaction-Based Price Indices for Commercial and Office Land in Japan: Intertemporal Difference in Implicit Prices during Bubble Period." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This study discusses the actual time-series pattern in commercial and office land prices during a bubble period, from the late 80Ìs to early 90Ìs, in Tokyo Central Business District. A varying parameter approach, which allows the implicit prices in relation to the attributes to vary intertemporally, is employed for constructing a transaction-based price index. Forward extensions of a conventional hedonic index require that parameters of a hedonic model are newly estimated at every extension, using a new data set where the latest available transaction information is added into an existing data set. These extensions imply that the existing values of the index might vary because hedonic estimators, especially those of time dummy variables, can change. Moreover, a price index that holds the implicit prices fixed may be biased since implicit prices can be unstable when land values fluctuate sharply as in a bubble period. This study thus examines the reliability of indices based on respective approaches, and investigates the movement of implicit prices over the time period. Transaction-based price indices at Tokyo Central Business District are developed for the period from 1981 to 1992. It is shown that the bubble started at the beginning of 1984, and that the initial symptom of collapse of the bubble was in 1989. Both of these dates are much earlier than the times observed in the appraisal land price index. Furthermore, our results indicate that implicit prices are different intertemporally, and provide evidence of the usefulness and reliability of the varying parameter approach when a market is in a bubble.
Lundström, Stellan. "Uncertainty in valuations - results from a valuation experiment." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The discussion about valuation accuracy and variations in valuation has been given new fuel when new worldwide accounting standards with a strong emphasis on market value are implemented. The most far- reaching suggestion is that changes over the year in market value should affect both the income statement and balance sheet. If this interpretation of the new accounting standard is implemented, then will a strong focus be on valuation variation and valuation accuracy as well as the magnitude of the property cycle. A general discussion about uncertainty in valuations is illustrated with results from a valuation experiment that give an indication about the magnitude of variation in estimated market values as well as variation in individual discounted cash flow parameters. The variation in market value estimates is found to be much dependent on the special market situation with fast escalating rents in Stockholm CBD during the late 1990s. The result from the experiment is discussed in relation to results from other studies and the findings are related to accounting. Conclusions are drawn about what other changes in the market could be expected when revaluation of real estate have a direct impact on both the income statement and balance sheet.
O'Roarty, Brenna. "Understanding People to drive Property Performance." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Myers, Danny, Wrigley Mike, and Wyatt Peter. "Understanding Urban Development Land: Accelerating Regeneration." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Prolific urbanisation in Europe has lead to phenomenal growth in the geographical size and land use density of towns and cities. Inevitably, over time, the fabric (buildings and infrastructure) of the built environment becomes obsolete and needs replacing. This gives rise to debates relating to regeneration. It has become a political imperative in the UK, and Europe as a whole, to focus development activity on the previously developed sites within existing urban areas. In the UK this is known as ÎbrownfieldÌ development. The argument developed in this paper is that emphasis should shift from identification and appraisal of vacant land to vacant buildings Ò and possibly partially vacant buildings. Commercial buildings, which remain vacant for long periods, are a potential resource for regeneration. Accurate, up-to-date and consistent information on building vacancy is needed to assess the feasibility of reusing vacant buildings. The paper specifically draws on the authorsÌ contributions to the national initiatives to improve the quality and quantity of land and property use data in England and Wales, and makes the case for better access to comprehensive information about vacant buildings to achieve economically efficient and sustainable development. In particular, the paper presents a methodology for using information collected for property taxation purposes to help identify the type, location and size of long-term vacant property and considers the possibility of implementation across Europe.
Gandle, David. "University-Affiliated Technology Parks in Central Europe: An Effective Development Concept?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Chin, Lawrence, Loo Lee Sim, and Choo Malone- Lee Lai. "Urban Decentralisation in Singapore: An Institutional Approach." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The Revised Concept Plan is the strategic land use plan to guide SingaporeÌs long term development. One of the key strategies in the 1991 Plan is the decentralisation of commercial activities to regional and sub-regional centres to relieve congestion in the CBD, reduce work travel and attain a better balance of resident-employment distribution. Three regional centres have been proposed under the Plan, namely, Tampines in the East, Woodlands in the North and Jurong East in the West. In Singapore, all activities including urban development are carried out by government departments or statutory boards, largely characterized by functions. Similarly, the institutional approach is adopted for urban decentralisation because of its complexity and the need to avoid missing out on key links in understanding how and why new firms are attracted to the regional centres. The paper examines the viability of regional centres as a place for shopping and employment, for residents both within and outside the region. The findings indicates while institutionalizing the process can kick start the urban decentralization, as in the case of Tampines Regional Centre, market forces and timing are also found to be critical to further enhance this role and to fully realize the viability of regional centres in Singapore.
Karadimitriou, Nikos. "Urban land re-use and the challenges for the UK private housebuilding sector." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper presents the main arguments and some first preliminary results of a PhD thesis examining the process of urban brownfield land re-use in London. It summarises some basic housebuilding trends and tries to place them within the wider context of housing provision in the UK with the help of a brief review of the theoretical background of the thesis. It hypothesises that recent changes in British urban policy, related to the types of land and types of development desired, will have significant effects to the structure of housing provision and production in the UK. Some indications of those changes are already visible, particularly in London. Finally, the paper concludes with the future topics that the research will cover.
D’Amato, Maurizio. "Using Valued Tolerance decisions rules for property valuation with rough set theory." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The work is focused on the problem of the application of Rough Set Theory to property valuation. This methodology was introduced by Pawlak and has been recently applied to property valuation by the author (dÌAmato,2002). The model allow the appraiser to estimate a property without defining a mathematical model, although do not give any quantitative estimation of marginal prices. In the first version before the valuation process the data are organised in classes . Starting from them, if-then rules allows to appraise the real property. If a property belongs to a specific group then it will belong to a class of value. The relationship between the property and the class of value is dichotomic. In the paper will be used a Ïvalue tolerance relationó in order to make more flexible the rule. In this case the results will come out from an explicit and specific relationship. The methodology has been tested on 52 transactions in the residential property market of Bari, in the southern east of Italy.
Crosby, Neil, Devaney Steven, Matysiak George, and McAllister Patrick. "Valuation Accuracy: reconciling the timing of the valuation and sale." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Foo, Sing Tien, and Goh Wee Keng. "Valuation of Default Risks in Percentage Leases in Option Pricing Framework." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Percentage lease agreements (PLAs) contain lease clauses with payments of a flat base rent plus a variable rent, which is pegged to the sale turnovers. PLAs have been widely regarded as an important mechanism to achieve risk sharing, tenant mix and also rent discriminating objectives in shopping center management. There are no studies that examine the issue of default risks in the PLAs . In the earlier literature on leasing risks, Grenadier (1996) models the default timing as an exogenous stochastic variable in his leasing risk model, and he showed how the default risk should be reflected in the equilibrium lease rate to compensate the landlord for the leasing risks. Sing and Tang (2002) then extended the model to examining the default options from the perspective of a tenant. This paper develops a multi-period binomial tree option-pricing model to explicitly evaluate the default options in the PLA framework. In the absence of leaseÌs pretermination penalties, the tenants are deemed to possess an implicit call option, upon which if exercised gives them a right to Ïbreakó a lease and move to alternative premises at a lower fixed prevailing market rent. Based on a hypothetical retail PLA lease with various base case parameter assumptions, the value of the tenantÌs default option was estimated at 1.08% for a 3-year term. When uncertainties in both sale turnovers and relocation costs are simulated using selected random probability processes, the expected option premium increases by 0.18% to 1.26%. A positive relationship between the option premium and rental volatility was observed, which is consistent with the standard real options theory. The percentage used to set the base rent and the overage rate are lease-specific factors that were found to have positive effects on option premium, whereas the option premiums decline when the relocation costs and the sale breakpoint increase.
Sayce, Sarah, and Owen Conellan. "Valuation standards in a post-Enron world." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The collapse of confidence in standards of financial reporting, consequent on the Enron and WorldCom corporations has affected corporate bodies and their advisers, and there are now widespread Governmental pressures for more stringent controls over practice to prevent deception and even fraudulent activities. This in turn puts a renewed pressure on the role of standards and guidance in respect of asset valuation practice, particularly for property appraisals prepared for financial statements where there is an essential need for re-assurance. With the increasing forces of globalisation, the need for supra-national convergence in standards is increased. This lends weight to the ambition for consistent bases of valuation, as a first step towards convergence practice, which still remains a challenge to national and supra-national bodies. Recent notable changes are occurring within the compulsory and best practice guidance given to valuers. The International Valuation Standards Committee (IVSC) and European Group of ValuersÌ Association (TEGoVA) are re-issuing revised standards and The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) in the 5th edition of its ÎRed BookÌ has now thoroughly re-written its Mandatory Statements. Some of these revisions are undoubtedly part of the ongoing overhaul of all standards. However, this paper explores to what extent, if any, the changes that are now being manifest are just part of the normal process and how far they are in response to the wider implications of Enron. Through a survey of leading professionals drawn international consultancy firms, professional body representatives and corporate bodies, the paper explores perceptions to the issue. The findings reported indicate that, indeed, the fall-out from Enron is having a pervasive and persuasive effect on the adviser base and, through governmental intervention, on the client base through the pressures being exerted on matters of corporate governance.
Marcato, Gianluca. "Valuation techniques and portfolio returns: do simple valuation models do their job?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. ERES:conference
Goldbeck, Jan-Hendrik, and Lausberg Carsten. "Value migration in the real estate industry." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Value chains are in constant motion: new links supplement or replace old links, margins shrink or grow, the number of market participants changes. One can say that the value migratesÛfrom one industry to the other, from one sub-segment to the other, in the real estate economy as well as in any other industry. That makes it difficult to answer the question on which stages of the chain how much value is created and where the stages with the highest relative creation of value will lie in the future. But answering this question is important for the strategic planning of enterprises because they depend on the timely identification of growth fields in order to secure their long-term position in the marketplace. So far the real estate economic literature has largely neglected the topic value creation. Therefore this paper tries to design a method to identify value migrations particularly for the real estate industry. For this, the concept of Slywotzky (1996) which was developed for other industries serves as the intellectual basis. The work is divided into a theoretical and an empirical part. In the first part the terms value, value creation, and value chain are defined for the real estate economy. Characteristic difficulties show up with distinguishing between the different links of the value chain. Then a method is presented for the measurement of the creation of value and the size of the market. Finally it is demonstrated, how assumptions on future value migrations can be derived. The second part contains the results of an empirical study of the value chain of commercial real estate in Germany. For this purpose, the authors interviewed industry experts and evaluated available statistic data. Furthermore tendencies for the future value migration are derived.
Smit, William, and Vos Gerjan. "Variations in Valuations: Will identical data input lead to identical output of valuation results?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper investigates whether reliable valuation results may be expected when valuers, in carrying out a valuation task, use an identical data set as well as an identical valuation method. The hypothesis is that under such circumstances an identical output of property values of different valuers is to be expected. Earlier work has suggested that valuations are not always as accurate as they should be. Earlier work also suggests that valuations may incorporate elements of cognitive bias, which contribute to this inaccuracy. This paper reports an empirical investigation which was undertaken with professional valuers of a well-known reputation and comprises a mock valuation task. Several professionals drawn from well-known agencies were asked to carry out two different property valuations with two different methods according to the guidelines of the Dutch ROZ-IPD Index. The valuers received identical input in the form of a complete data set of quantitative and qualitative variables. It appears from this research that despite the fact that identical input information was provided, the valuation results of these valuers show large differences. In contrast to what was to be expected the hypothesis was rejected. The paper examines the causes for the differences in value opinion, which depend on the way in which valuers process information. Implications of these findings are discussed in the paper. It is concluded that the results of this experiment may support the presence of anchoring, search limitation and data adjustments, which lead to cognitive bias.
Choi, Hak. "What do you get from living out of Town? - A Study on Housing Rent Gradient and Household Utility Change." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper investigates the effect of a move by a household to live away from city center. What do you get from living out of town? It is shown that while you get a lower rent, you also get a larger housing space. However, a surprising result is that your utility level is lowered. This refutes an assumption of traditional spatial theory that households are indifferent about location choice. This paper also offers a new view on the linearity of the housing rent gradient function. The gradient curve can be convex or has a mirrored-S shape.
Bourassa, Steven, Hoesli Martin, and Sun Jian. "Whatís in a View?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The impact of views on property values has not been the specific focus of as much research as has the impact of other externalities on property values. When the impact of views is assessed, this is often done by simply adding a dummy variable for views in hedonic regression equations. This paper provides a detailed literature review as well as an empirical analysis of the impact of a view on residential property values using a very rich database of nearly 5,000 sales in Auckland, New Zealand. Several dimensions of a view are analyzed (type of view, scope of view, distance to coast, and quality of surrounding improvements). It is found that wide views of water add an average of 59% to the value of a waterfront property, but that this effect diminishes quite rapidly as the distance from the coast increases. Attractive landscaping and buildings in a property's neighborhood on average add 5% and 37% to value, respectively. Particularly attractive improvements in the immediate surroundings of a property add another 27% to value on average. Our results lead to the conclusion that aesthetic externalities are multi-dimensional and can have a substantial impact on residential property values.
Campbell, Robert. "When Do REIT Managers Create Value in Real Estate Property Sell-Offs?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This paper examines major sales of real property by public U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 1998-2002, and uses event study methodology to measure shareholder returns related to these events. In contrast to results reported for REIT sell-offs prior to 1990, but consistent with findings for conventional firms that sell off real estate, abnormal shareholder returns are found to be significantly positive overall. This result suggests that the finding of zero abnormal returns in previous REIT studies may result from the low degree of visibility of these firms prior to 1994. Further analysis shows that shareholder returns are significantly higher when the transaction is motivated by an expressed intention to increase property type corporate focus, a finding that adds to the literature supporting the view that diversification is negative for shareholder value. Abnormal returns are negatively associated with the seller's intention to use net proceeds to retire debt, but positively associated with the intention to repurchase common stock.
Baroni, Michel, Barthelemy Fabrice, and Mokrane Mahdi. "Which Capital Growth for the Paris Residential Market?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. In this paper we address the issue of measuring price performance for the Paris residential market. Our main focus is on choosing the appropriate index or indices capable of efficiently capturing capital growth, capital risk, and identifying the main risk factors inherent in this specific market. We identify three existing indices but show that they may not be completely appropriate to address our main goals. We therefore construct two complementary repeat sales indices: a Case & Shiller (1987) Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) index and a Factorial index using the Baroni, Barth»l»my & Mokrane (2001) approach. We use the CD-BIEN database that contains more than 220 000 repeat sales transactions for residential properties in the Paris area covering the period 1983- 2001 period. We estimate these two indices for the Paris and close surrounding area and compare them to different existing indices: (i) the square metre index provided by the Chambre des Notaires de Paris and INSEE, (ii) the IPD indices, (iii) the listed real estate index. Our conclusions yield interesting implications concerning real estate risk and suggest the construction of jointly using the repeat sales and the factorial approaches.
Ladewig, Holger. "Why Is Finnish Commercial Real Estate still a closed Shop?" In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. The Finnsh real estate market is dominated by Finnish insurance companies and pension funds. Little evidence can be found on international real estate transactions in Finland. The paper deals with the market fundamentals, from the economic as well as the property investment perspective.
Montezuma, Joaquim, and Gibb Kenneth. "Why Residential Property in Institutional Investor's Portfolios: The Dutch, Swedish and Swiss Cases." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. This study evaluates residential property as an institutional asset group in three European countries (The Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland). These are countries where the involvement of institutional investors in private rented housing is significant compared to other countries in Western Europe, even though the respective relative importance of private rental provision varies substantially. Three criteria, familiar from the literature, are used to evaluate residential property as an institutional asset group. First, the rental market available for institutional investors must be sufficiently large in order to provide significant diversification benefits. Second, housing must offer good meanvariance performance. Third, residential property must provide a good hedge against inflation. Direct residential property is compared with other asset groups: shares (domestic and European indices), government bonds and indirect non-residential property. A bootstrap analysis (Efron (1979), Liang et al (1996) and Ziobrowski el al. (1997)) is employed to estimate confidence intervals for the optimum level of residential property in mixed-asset portfolios. The Fama and Gibbons (1982) approach is used to test the inflationary hedging capabilities of residential property over shares, bonds and nonresidential indirect property. The paper concludes, on balance, that there is a case for a residential property component within portfolios in the case study countries.
Luoma, Marianna, Isotalus Niina, and Saarela Leena. "Work-related violence at real estate sector: a questionnaire and a training program." In 10th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Helsinki, Finland, 2003. Workers in real estate sector encounter more frequently violence at work than the workforce in general. The purpose of this study was (1) to find out the extent and nature of violence and the threat of violence as work-related health and safety risk in real estate work places; and (2) to develop a training program for employees in real estate companies. In this study, violence could be either physical, like hitting or grabbing or mental, like threatening. The number of experiences of violence or threat of violence was investigated through a questionnaire and statistical analysis. Questionnaire was delivered to employees in various companies at real estate sector, and 170 answers were received. The results indicated that almost 60% of the respondents had encountered violence during their work carrier and 14% of the accidents had happened during the last year. Based on these findings, a training program was developed and a pilot course was held. A method called KAURIS (developed recently in Finland for the retail industry) was utilized in the development of the training program for the real estate sector. The purpose of the course was on prevention and handling of difficult situations with customers. Both the results of the questionnaire and the experiences from the pilot course will be presented.