Keywords Abstract
Lorenzo, José Maria Mont, and Matias Gámez Martínez. ""A Methodological Proposal for the removal of the "small district effect" in the elaboration of the free housing price"." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The aim of this research is the proposal of a change for the methodology used by the SubdirecciÛn General de InformaciÛn y EstadÌstica del Ministerio de Fomento to elaborate the price of the free housing square meter published in the monographs ìÕndice de precios de las viviendas. EstadÌstica de precio medio del m.2 (datos obtenidos de las tasaciones hipotecariasî. The aforementioned methodological consideration would avoid the named ìsmall district effectî and supply housing prices which are more realistic and more consistent with the reality existing in the real estate market, especially, in provincial capitals. The consequences of the proposed methodological change are very important since the growth rates evolution of the free housing prices changes significantly in many spanish provinces, which has a direct effect on the housing policy, the fiscal policy on real estate assets, ...
Ruddock, Les. ""The Portfolio strategy of UK Property Companies. "Style" Analysis and Portfolio Performance"." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The paper is concerned with a study of the property portfolio strategies of a selection of the major property companies in the U.K. An asset class factor model, namely return-based style analysis (RBSA) is used to measure the exposures of each component of a portfolio in relation to its returns. Total returns from ten listed property companies, based on their share movements were used to estimate the style exposures of three commercially based property types ñ retail, office and industrial. Data on quarterly share price movements for a twelve-year period were taken and this study examined the relationship of the return for the three commercial property types to each portfolio. The effective portfolio allocations that are derived by RBSA are then compared to the actual average portfolio allocation of the property companies. RBSA is seen as a particularly effective tool in the explanation of the returns of property companies pursuing growth or income strategies.
Leishman, Chris, and Glen Bramley. "A local housing market model with spatial interaction and land-use planning controls." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. There have been few documented attempts to construct and estimate econometric models of local housing market dynamics and linkages. Previous housing market analyses have been undertaken primarily at the national and regional levels of aggregation. This paper reports the results of the estimation of a system of equations using a panel dataset. The work extends previous housing market analyses in a number of respects. First, the analysis is undertaken at the local level. Local authority (former district council) boundaries are used as a proxy for local housing market areas. Second, the modelling approach takes explicit account of spatial interaction between local land and housing markets. The system constructed and estimated includes equations for private household migration between local housing markets, house price growth and house building output. The supply equation (house building output) is driven partly by measures of land made available through the planning system for house building. This includes measures of the relative importance of urban infill and brownfield sites in the supply of land. Our estimations have shown that these variables are statistically significant. The equations are estimated using two stage least squares on panel data. The spatial coverage of the data is the central belt of Scotland. The data span the period 1986-1997.
Yazawa, Norihiko. "A Macroeconomic Analysis of Land Use for Agricultural Liberalization." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The purpose of this paper is to construct a general land-macroeconomic model by introducing aspects of three intertemporal frameworks: 1) The Blanchard model; 2) The CIGE (Computable Intertemporal Generalized Equilibrium) model; and 3) The OLG (Overlapping Generarion) model. By using these models as instruments, we are able to evaluate the effects of the following contemporary agricultural problems: 1) Agricultural liberalization: 2) Agricultural rationalization and 3) Aging.
Ben-Shahar, Danny, and David Feldman. "A Signaling-Screening Equilibrium in the Mortgage Market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Screening equilibria, mainly those a la Rothchild-Stiglitz(1976), have been widely used to explain various aspects of mortgage contracting. In the real world, however, most mortghage contracting processes involve both signalling and screening. In this paper, we combine signalling and screening mechanisms to examine a mortgage selection process. Borrowers ìbuyî different credit histories, signalling their default risk type to lenders. Credit histories, however, are imperfect signals and only partially separate borrowersí risk types, clustering them into subsets. Then, lenders screen each subset by offering a different menu. In equilibrium, safer (riskier) borrowers maintain a better (worse) credit record and choose shorter (longer) matutity and lower (higher) risk premium mortgage loan contracts. We further show that the separating signalling-screening equilibrium is Pareto superior to a corresponding screening equilibrium.
Costello, Gregory J.. "A Spatial Approach to Price Segmentation in Housing Markets." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper uses a large transaction data set from the city of Perth Western Australia to test empirically whether differentials exist in the patterns of information diffusion that operate for different price segments in housing markets. Whereas some previous studies have tested the influence of price segmentation within aggregate city-wide housing markets, these studies are limited in that they do not acknowledge the influence of important spatial sub-markets. More specifically if the aggregate city-wide housing market is segmented according to price then it is not clear whether observed differentials in price changes between price segments are due to specific price segment influences or specific spatial influences. This study employs Tukeyís honestly significance difference test to identify homogenous spatial price segments. The spatial groups are identified according to postal code district and individual real house price indices are constructed for individual spatial regions and larger homogenous groups. The indices are used in serial correlation tests. Initially price changes in homogenous price segments are regressed on lagged price changes for similar price segments in neighbouring spatial regions. These tests are also performed for a control group of homogenous price segments in non-neighbouring spatial regions. It is hoped that this methodology might establish whether price segment specific or location specific factors influence information diffusion processes within the housing market more heavily. Preliminary results indicate that information from past price changes appear to be more persistent in the cheaper price segments.
Atkin, Brian. "Accelerated knowledge Acquisition Programme for Real Estate and Facilities Management." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Increased recognition of the importance of workplace strategies and other facility-related business decisions are preoccupying owners and academics alike. In Finland, the real estate sector has a pressing need to develop a new generation of industry-aware researchers to deal with and resolve matters of strategic value to real estate owners and occupiers. The approach being advocated is a programme of accelerated knowledge acquisition in which information and communications technology will play a key role in delivering learning to a dispersed group of doctoral researchers. Use will be made of an international body of experts backed by recognised centres of excellence. Specific challenges in implementing the programme include agreement on a curriculum that will build on existing academic strength, as well as support the diverse interests of the industry. A multidisciplinary perspective is being adopted to ensure that the necessary research expertise and rigour is accessible to participants in the programme in ways that will encourage greater interaction between the experts and researchers. Formalisation of a new set of core competencies is likely to arise and this is expected to become a major part of the programmeís appeal. The paper will present the arguments for this new approach and discuss the thinking behind the core competencies that will help in developing the next generation of industry-aware researchers. These agents of change will be expected to add impetus to the real estate sectorís need for answers on key issues connected with, amongst other things, risk, value and sustainability
Kaleva, Hanna, R. Lahtinen, and Olli Olkkonen. "Aiming at tenant satisfaction: Wasted money or profitable business management?" In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The emergence of increased customer orientation has been one of main trends in the Finnish property sector in recent years. This trend has been seen in the increased interest in satisfying customersí needs among property investors in order to reach and maintain market positions in tightening competitive environment. Regular measurement of tenant satisfaction has become a commonly used tool in Finnish property business management. In the end, the core question in aiming at improving customer satisfaction is its effects on businessesí profitability. This question has been prevailing in business management literature in recent years. Are satisfied tenants more - or less - profitable than less satisfied? What are the true components behind customer satisfaction among different types of space users? Are tenants really willing to pay for better space and service? What kind of preferences and expectations do the tenants have concerning the relationship and interaction with the landlord? This paper aim at setting a basis for looking for the potential answers for these crucial questions. In this paper, suggestions are made for measuring the impact of different quantitative property business indicators on tenant satisfaction. Paper looks at the relationships between tenant satisfaction and other measures of property businessesí profitability in the Finnish commercial property market. The paper begins with a review on relevant business management literature. Emphasis is put on the description of KTIís relevant databases. Preliminary empirical study is made on the correlation between different measures on cross-sectional data. Preliminary conclusions and suggestions for further research are made on the basis of the results of this study. This paper is a starting point for examining the connections between different indicators of property business' success. A more thorough approach would require analysis of time series of different variables. Therefore, this paper is work in progress with follow-ups to come.
García, Francisco Cantalejo, and Javier Molina Ruiz. "Algoritmo Em. Una AplicaciÛn a la ConcesiÛn de PrÈstamos Hipotecarios." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. "The problem we are analysing arise when we utilise tests ""screening"" to evaluate the conditions (to diagnose the aptitude) of a number of candidates to receive a mortgage from a financial entity, with the problems of lack of information, more specifically, supposing we have two tests with two possible results respectively called (R+) and (R-);the results of both tests are conditionally independent and the possibility of obtaining a false positive results for each test is zero. As the objective of this study we propose to utilise a methodological algorithm based on the statistic technique known as E.M., to determine the probability of concession of the credit and to know which test is more reliable. We present the algorithm E.M. and its relationship to the method of Maximum Likelihood and the parametric estimation, and the use of this algorithm to solve the problems which arise when the data is incomplete or censored. consisting of two phases such as complete data relating to data observed or incomplete, following which we define the function of Likelihood to which we calculate its Expected value phase E and then we maximize the above mention value, phase M. Finally we present a practical case in which we realize all the process of the algorithm E.M., the different expressions obtained being programmed and where apart from some initial values we obtain the different values which give us the probability of concession and so, which is the best test to decide the concession of the mortgages."
Sanderson, Ben, Corin Thoday, and Sotiris Tsolacos. "An analysis of the long-term trends in European office rents and capital values." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper seeks to determine the long-term trends of office rents and capital values for Europeís major centres. Using previously un-exploited long run datasets the paper adopts modern econometric techniques to determine whether there is a long run relationship between rents capital values and a series of economic variables. The econometric modelling is compared to simpler trend analysis and cyclical effects are also tested for in an attempt to improve the ability to forecast the future. The paper concludes with an analysis of what the results imply for the future evolution of rents and capital values and the implications for current inter city rental differentials.
Maurer, Raimond, and Frank Reiner. "An Analysis of the Potential Performance Improvement by Integrating Real Estate Investment Companies into International. Portfolios: the Perspective of German and US Investors." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Real Estate has always been an investment class of its own, firstly, due to different risk/return characteristics than stocks and interest bearing assets and secondly, due to specific interdependencies to other assets in terms of return. These interdependencies are likely to be small, be it on a national level, i.e. between stocks or bonds and real estate investments, or on an international level, i.e. between real estate investments in different countries. Although low interdependencies between asset returns are the basis for gains by international diversification, real estate investments are still not a major factor in internationally diversified portfolios. This is largely due to the fact that real estate investments have some special characteristics, mainly high transaction- and information costs. These characteristics imply problems when integrating real estate into international diversified portfolios. A way of alleviating these problems is to use Real Estate Investment Companies as a substitute for and indirect form of real estate investments. In this paper we investigate the potential performance improvement by integrating Real Estate Investment Companies into internationally diversified portfolios consisting of conventional assets (stocks and bonds). We use an ex-post and an ex-ante approach. We utilize monthly return-series data on Real Estate Companies, as well as on common stocks and bonds, from France, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and the USA from 1980-1998. Our analysis uses the traditional Markowitz approach and, alternatively, a shortfall approach, due to the rather critical normality assumptions of the former. The analysis incorporates the effects of either hedged or unhedged exchange rate risk. The German and the US viewpoint leads to an examination of the dependency of the potentials for diversification on the investors home country. From a German investors point of view the integration of real estate investments has non-negligible effects on the performance of an internationally diversified portfolio, both in the ex-post and in the ex-ante case. These effects are mainly, independent of the utilized measures of risk, a large potential reduction of risk. The qualitative results for the US investor are similar to those in the German case. The quantitative effects however are less pronounced and are of less regular occurrence.
Barot, Bharat, and Alfred Kanis. "An Econometric Demand-Supply Model for Swedish Private Housing." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. A housing market model for Sweden has been estimated on semiannual data for 1970-97 by separately modelling the demand and the supply sides, specified in error correction form. On the demand side in the short run house prices adjust to the changes in the real after tax long interest rate, financial wealth, the employment rate, rents and, finally, population. There is an underlying long run relationship between real house prices and the following ratios: debt to income, debt to financial wealth, private housing stock to income, the stock of rental housing (flats) to the private housing stock, the real after tax real long interest rate. The supply side, based on a Tobin=s q-index, the short interest rate and stock market returns, generates the investment flow which determines the evolution in stock. The results indicate that even in a turbulent period, Swedish house prices and housing investment are tracked quite well with this specification. The importance of the simulations and their usefulness to Swedish policy makers is discussed. According to our model, many factors were instrumental in producing the house price boom of the late-1980s. Initial debt levels were low as were real house prices, giving scope for rises in both, and these became more important as a result of financial liberalization, though partly offset by higher real interest rates. We also discuss the controversy over the causes of the 1991-1993 recession in the context of the 1991 Tax Reform. Tests of model adequacy indicate that the housing price and Tobin q housing investment models are stable and robust and satisfy intuitive theoretical prerequisites.
García, Dolores, and Pere Riera. "An Strategic Analysis of Urban Growth Controls." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The welfare economics of urban growth controls and other land use regulations have received an increasing deal of attention in recent years, especially at the theoretical level. This paper analyzes two types of growth controls in the context of a closed system of interdependent cities where utility is determined endogenously. Thus, the paper concentrates on how the use of population growth controls and, alternatively, the use of taxes on housing consumption, affect utility levels, taxes revenues and city size. We use a simple context in which households' utility is not affected by environmental amenities. Several scenarios are analyzed, with particular attention to the emerging equilibriums when strategic interaction between cities takes place, both considering static and dynamic horizons. It is shown that cooperation between jurisdictions and the subsequent choice of stringer population controls and higher taxes constitute the equilibrium solution when interaction occurs along infinite periods.
Ghyoot, V.. "Analysing Public Sector Policy in the Real Property Industry." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The role of public sector agencies in the property industry, as in other industries, is often misunderstood and even questioned. This paper is an attempt to explore the full spectrum of state involvement in the property industry and to clarify the underlying policies and strategic issues. After considering the reasons for state involvement in the property industry, the various roles and available strategies are described, along with examples of their use. The paper concludes with suggestions on improving the effectiveness of public sector involvement. The objective is to provide a framework for analysis and not to explain or critically evaluate policy. Hopefully such a framework will make public sector actions easier to understand and analyse and allow fresh strategies to become evident
Mokrane, Mahdi, Fabrice Barthélémy, and Michel Baroni. "Analysing the real estate investment risk : The case of Paris." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In this paper we investigate the risk factors associated with real estate investment. We explore a rich database of over 100 000 transactions mainly for residential assets in the Paris area over the 1973 ñ 1998 period. The main risk factors are identified using a Principal Component Analysis as well as a Stepwise Regression Method. The first method shows that linear or log-linear combinations of factors such as interest rates, interest rate spreads, financial market return, rents, unemployment, or even market traded real estate cannot capture physical real estate return risk in a satisfactory manner. The second method indicates that if one were to nevertheless opt for a factor model, the consistent factors should be rents, unemployment, traded real estate and a population index. Comparisons of this factor model index with both a Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) index computed for the Paris area, the IPD index and the square-foot price index, yield interesting implications concerning real estate risk, market participant behaviour, and the so-called 1990s ëspeculative bubbleí.
Rottmann, Eduardo. "Analyzing middle class apartment market behaviour through hedonic models: a case study on Morumbi district, in Sao Paulo, Brazil." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Morumbi district, in South-western S„o Paulo city, has been, in the last decade, a booming housing market aimed towards middle and upper-middle income families. This paper presents how, through the use of an extensive data basis established on historical records of asked values and general characteristics of new apartment buildings offered into market (such as location, architectural and facilities attributes), a price hedonic model was developed, and provided, using market segmentation, an analysis of the dominant variables in price forming, making possible conclusions on market behaviour and product conception.
Herranz, Carolina, and Alberto Sanchis. "An·lisis y evoluciÛn de la Oferta de Vivienda en la Comunidad Valenciana: una perspectiva desde la AdministraciÛn de la Generalitat Valenciana." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Analizar la evoluciÛn de la oferta de vivienda en la Comunidad Valenciana con especial referencia a la evoluciÛn de precios y al segmento de vivienda protegida. PresentaciÛn de los resultados del estudio anual de mercado :ìInforme sobre la Oferta de Vivienda Nueva en la Comunidad Valencianaî en el periodo 1992-2000. Especial referencia a las peculiaridades del mercado de vivienda en la Comunidad Valenciana y en EspaÒa.
Ezquiaga, Ignacio, and Lara de Mesa. "An·lisis y valoraciÛn de la polÌtica de vivienda en EspaÒa." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. An·lisis y valoraciÛn de la polÌtica de vivienda en EspaÒa, en especial de la polÌtica de ayudas directas: los elementos a travÈs de los cuales se define, agentes integrados en su definiciÛn y ejecuciÛn, objetivos perseguidos y su grado de efectividad. Para ello se valora el papel asumido por las Administraciones P˙blicas en EspaÒa en el mercado de vivienda, los objetivos perseguidos y su desarrollo y ejecuciÛn: quÈ agentes definen y ejecutan la polÌtica de vivienda, las competencias asumidas por los distintos niveles de la AdministraciÛn P˙blica, en quÈ instrumentos se apoyan y cÛmo se definen e implementan estos. El an·lisis del marco de actuaciÛn de la polÌtica de vivienda, permite entrar a valorar los objetivos que se plantean, su adecuaciÛn a los problemas presentados en el mercado de la vivienda espaÒol, tanto por el lado de la oferta como por el lado de la demanda, y el nivel de efectividad de los objetivos planteados por la polÌtica de vivienda en EspaÒa en la actualidad.
Moorehead, Josef D.. "As Part of an Information Competency Program, Can We Teach Real Estate Students About International Real Estate?" In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Information competence has become a core component of the education requirements for student. Specifically, this is the ability of students to identified issues and problems, and conduct research to help resolve them. While the focus has been on domestic issues, there is a need to broaden it for real estate students by including international questions. Consistent with the current narrow focus, most of the learning activities have been on local or regional issues. Yet there are opportunities in international real estate ventures, of which students may not be aware. In order to make students understand and appreciate the international aspects of real estate, they must be able to use research mythologies to identify and utilize appropriate information and data. First, the process of international real estate research must be clearly articulated. This formalization of the process needs to use established procedures developed for information competence. The most difficult step in these procedures is finding the resources from which to gather relevant information and data. In addition to libraries there is the World Wide Web. The Internet is fast becoming a useful tool in assisting the collection of information and data. As a resource there are the legitimate sites and the not so legitimate sites. This paper also discussions the attributes of legitimacy. Still there is a question about the integration of these international research activities into the curriculum. How do we ensure that the program learning objectives are achieved through student assignments? The key is to provide students with assignments, activities, and learning processes, which take information competence into account by using international real estate paradigms. With careful planning and construction of curriculum activities, it is possible to incorporate international components that lead to improving information literacy. Experience also tells us that research is not a stand alone endeavor, but part of the broader learning efforts of the real estate student. The paper draws conclusions about the integration of information competency into the real estate curriculum as an attempt to conduct international investigations. The conclusions also relate the use of technology into the paradigm.
Rodríguez, Susana Martínez, and Andrés Fernández Méndez. "Aspects of the New Economy. Electronic Commerce Taxability." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The present communication is based on two big sections. First of all we make a summary study about the process of economic globalization and fiscal systems. Next, we will face the present and new problem of electronic commerce taxability. The current process of economic globalization - although it is not an exclusive process at present time - is characterized by its support in information and knowledge, which enables the technological revolution we are living in. In fact, the new economy goes around information. Among the positive aspects, we must emphasize a better localization of resources or the access of individuals and companies to a greater supply of goods and services. The ease of agents mobility and the increase of information available at a low cost, are other beneficial aspects we cannot revile. There is also a group of negative aspects to which we will devote our attention: the objective of our study is public sector procedure, particularly in the field of fiscal systems. Among the negative elements which affect government tax collection, we have reflected on the increment of the mobility of individuals and the activities executed, the growing importance of law taxation countries, the creation of new finantial instruments and new methods of canalization of inversions, the increase of multinational trade, the replacement of real money by electronic money or the impotence of the countries to levy a high tax rate on financial capital yield and high remuneration labor yield. The aspects studied, make tax collection teeter as well as alter the principles that rule all fiscal systems to which we will focus our attention. What do we understand by electronic commerce or e-commerce? A first approach to the phenomenon could benefit from the following definition: business transactions, both between companies and between companies and final consumers, based on digitalized data transmission processes, including text, sound and images, made through open and closed networks with possible connections to open networks. The plurality of the sources consulted about the growth rates expected to reach in future years, gives a non-revealing result of rising trend. Considering the present and future potential of this reality we must analyze its effects on certain public sector actuation, especially on those actuations related to government revenues. The analysis of the impact on electronic commerce fiscal systems has to reexamine necessarily some basic principles of international tax laws as fiscal sovereignty, or the ultraterritorial character of the associated fiscal laws. We will mention the different actions of the OECD, the European Union and in particular, the position of the USA. Furthermore, the European Union has achieved a breakthrough in the field of the implications that the new reality of electronic commerce may generate on the value added tax (in fact, electronic commerce is a business transaction). The two aspects that give more problems regarding the viability of the current model of VAT are taxable event localization and the qualification of operations (distinction between goods and services). Once the problems are delimited and before analyzing possible solutions, we will take into account an example of the taxation of these operations according to current regulations.
Matysiak, George A., and Tsolacos Sotiris. "Assessing Indicators of Real Estate Activity." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The present study reports the results of assessing a number of indicator series that are considered to provide timely and pertinent information about real estate activity. It examines whether these indicators can trace changes in the path of real estate activity individually, or through alternative combinations or through an overall index. The individual series considered are real macro-economic and monetary components together with real estate data. Real estate activity is measured by reference to rental growth, which reflects the underlying balance between demand and supply of space. Non-parametric analysis and econometric techniques are deployed to investigate the potential advance in forecasting by using the selected indicator series. Formal statistical criteria are applied to evaluate the out of sample forecast performance. The analysis is completed with an outline of the implications of this work for investment decision making.
McGreal, Stanley, Jim Berry, James Berry, Greg Lloyd, and John McCarthy. "Assessment of tax-based mechanisms in urban regeneration." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The increasing interest in the potential use of fiscal incentives as a mechanism for stimulating urban renewal has been highlighted by a number of influential sources such as the UK governmentís 1999 Urban Task Force Report. However there is a lack of empirical research in the property literature on the use of such incentives. In this respect, the paper assesses the application and outcomes of tax-based incentives in urban regeneration by drawing upon case study analysis in Ireland and the USA. The evaluation focuses on the varying models used in Dublin (capital allowances, corporation tax) and in Chicago/Los Angeles (TIFs, BIDs). Issues considered include the utilisation of tax incentives, the drawing-down of benefits, the role of key actor groups, the ability to lever private sector finance, impact on property market sector performance and wider economic influences. Conclusions examine the relative merits of tax-based regimes rather than gap funding for urban renewal. Tangential to this debate is the future structure of urban regeneration mechanisms in EU member states given the Commission's ruling on competitive policy.
Oluwoye, Jacob, and R.S Small. "Asset Management: Forecasting office cbd capital values." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. An important function of asset management is forecasting risks and returns. However, investment decisions are made on the basis of relative performance within an expected set of financial and economic conditions. The aim of this paper is to examine if a model could be developed to explain the relationship between capital values and financial variables of Sydney CBD office market performance. The time-series data between Dec-1984 - June 1998 was used to establishing the relationship. The results of the data analysis reveals that property capital values are positively correlated with 90-day bank bills (interest rates) and the one-year lagged risk-free return, represented by the real 10-yr. Government bond rates. The conditions in the stock market, proxies association. Annual Sydney inflation rate (CPI) is negatively correlated with property capital values, that is higher CPI prospect should result in falling property capital values. The paper concludes that the model may throw some light on a theoretical hypotheses, and also the results of the final model are consistent with the author expectation and are statistically acceptable.
Fernandez, Antonio, Vitor Dos Santos Reis, and Maria da Luz Cergueira. "Bank loans and residential property market - EURO Reflexes in Portuguese property markets." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. There are no relevant academic studies on Portuguese property markets that can provide accurate information to understand this particular market. Therefore, we cannot find any reliable indicators about the evolution of Portuguese property market nor understand the effects that he has in the general economy. It is significant that in a report from the European Central Bank (Asset Prices and Banking Stability, April 2000) we can find information of residential and commercial prices evolution, as well as outstanding mortgage credit, from all the countries of EU being Portugal and Greece the only exceptions. The absence of this information is particularly important if we consider the evolution of Portuguese economy in this last decade. Since the decision of become a member of the EURO zone Portuguese economy as considerably changed. Portugal has departed from inflation and interest rates above the 20% in the eighties to an inflation of 2,9% and an interest rate of 4% in the end of 2000. These changes, associated with a rapid economic growth, have provoked an abnormal rise in the volume of the outstanding residential mortgage credit, especially after 1995. The current paper will analyse the changes occurred in the outstanding residential mortgage credit in this last decade and its implications to the structure loan capital from financial institutions. This paper is the first outcome from a larger project that aims to evaluate the changes in property market due to the Portuguese entrance in the EURO zone and the implications to Portuguese economy.
Ortalo-Magne, Francois. "Bargaining over Residential Real Estate: Evidence form England." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper presents and investigates a new data set of individual residential property transactions in England. The main novelty of the data is the record of all listing price changes and all offers ever made on a property since it appears on the market, as well as all the visits by potential buyers for a subset of the sample. We analyse individual seller and potential buyers behaviour within property transaction histories. This leads us to establish a number of stylised facts pertaining specifically to the timing and terms of agreement in housing transactions, and more generally, to the sequence of events that occur form initial listing to sale agreement.
O'Roarty, Brenna. "Beyond the threat of B2B and B2C : Back 2 Basics - Back 2 Consumers?" In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. European retailing is undergoing an immense process of change. Much attention has been directed to the impact of retailing. Whilst this is an important factor its high profile has led to an oversimplification, indeed masking, of the complexities involved in the current wave of retail change. This project gets back to basics. Ultimately the fundamentals of retailer profitability remain ostensibly a simple function of turnover less costs and a desired profit margin. Consumer appeal therefore continues to be critical to success; however the mass market has turned. Loyalty is waning thin in an increasingly competitive retail market where pricing pressure is compounded by market maturity; retailers must create a sense of want rather than need. We explore the role of globalisation, logistics, polarisation and differentiation as a means of increasing market share while reducing costs, thereby securing growth and consider the implications for retail property. The research will be supported by structured interviews with retail operators. It is intended to use the results of the research to propose a methodology for evaluating the relative risk associated with retail centres.
Morano, Pierluigi, and Vincenzo Del Giudice. "Bootstrap and Regression analysis in Real Estate Appraisal." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001.

In real estate valuation, the Multiple Regression Analysis (ARM) finds concretely many applications. This method is coherent with the forecasted, descriptive and explanatory aims of the valuation inquiry, it reduces greatly the existing subjectivity in assessment problems or, at least, it yields to isolate and point it out. However, into practice, even in that cases where theoretical suppositions based on ARM are finally verified, the use of regression is subjected to few obstacles of working nature. Between those, the most obvious are: a) the need to concentrate on statistical measurements having properties which can be analysed with mathematical justifications; b) a limited amount of real data sets referred to prices and to real estates peculiarities. Under those circumstances it becomes lower the chance to verify to what extent is the statistical inference accurate; although the level of likeness in evaluation is an essential requirement of appraisal. Actually, operating in a probabilistic context, the measurement of variability of any statistics pertinent to the case under study gives useful information to verify the accuracy of results, so to apply correctly and efficiently the model to the valuation needs. The improvement of accuracy of statistical inference can be obtained, as it is obvious, having several data sets to use for evaluating. But under real circumstances it is possible to collect data from only one sample which has usually small size. But even having many samples; for most of statistical estimators does not exist a concise formula that allows the variability computation. The same standard error –which is used to find the simplest measure of accuracy of an appraisal– respond to a close mathematical form only if is calculated on the base of arithmetic mean. The bootstrap procedure exposed in the paper allows to overcome the limits shown by the ARM. Conceive about thirty years ago, bootstrap is a procedure that makes possible to find, with the use of a personal computer; the statistical accuracy of an appraisal, just starting from a single real sample data. In other words, the bootstrap is able to simulate the process of random draw of many samples starting from the data of the only sample available. The distribution of estimated statistics for the single samples of bootstrap can so be handled as a distribution obtained using real samples and it is possible to calculate its variability. If we want to work out a statistical likewise of cloning, for example, it is as in the only sample at available for the analysis it is encoded the entire “genetic code” of the population under study, the bootstrap worked “cloning” several times this sample (even endlessly) until it is able to restore the whole population. Even though it looks paradoxical to a first glance; theoretical studies show that for a large amount of statistical properties the measure of accuracy obtained with the bootstrap is reliable in probabilistic terms. The interval of accuracy in an assessment found with the bootstrap using only one sample has an amplitude about the same of the one found with the statistical distribution of many real samples, obviously when those samples are concretely available. The use of personal computers enable to look on a numerical base into variability of appraisals; also in cases where it is not possible to analytically find it in an easy way by using a concise mathematical formula. This paper is divided into two section. In the first, the ARM is applied in a “traditional” form to a sample of residential real properties located in an Italian city so to build a function for price evaluation. The computation of correlation coefficient and the testing of statistical accuracy of regression coefficients yields to verify to what extent the model is fitted to respond to the forecasted aims. In the second part of the paper, it is taken into notice and analysed the variability of statistical estimators which is representative of the goodness of a regression model obtained trough the use of bootstrap. We analyse the theoretical hypotheses & the methodological criteria; as well as how the bootstrap can be used in general problems. On the bootstrap samples –which were found using the real sample– we have computed the variability measurements of correlation coefficient & regression coefficients; so to improve the performance of the model both in an explanatory & forecasting terms.

White, Michael, and Gwilym Pryce. "Britainís Possessions Paradox: Explaining The Determination of Mortgage Possessions." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. An enigma has emerged in the UK mortgage possessions data. As expected, possessions in England and Wales have been decreasing in line with falling unemployment and interest rates, but in Scotland, possessions are actually on the increase. This puzzling pattern in the data forms the rationale for a model of the determination of house possessions in Scotland. The paper examines a range of data north and south of the border and puts forward a number of hypotheses to explain the apparent conflicting trends in the level of possessions. An econometric model is then developed with the aim of testing these hypotheses in order to throw light on Britainís possessions paradox.
Doppegieter, Jan, and Erwin G. Jan Rode. "Capitalisation rates and property yields in the South African property sector." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. To analyse and interpret the movement in commercial property values a number of different performance measures can be used, including capitalisation rates and property yields. In South Africa, the former measure is traditionally an important benchmark for local institutional investors who still dominate the direct property market, whereas the latter is a popular measure used in the indirect property market, such as for listed property unit trusts (comparable to REITS in the USA). Examining capitalisation rate and property yield patterns of commercial properties during the past decade, notable differences come to the fore. Capitalisation rates are considerably lower and less volatile than property yields. These differences have important implications, since lower rates/yields imply higher property values. Globally, there has been a reduced exposure by institutional investors to (illiquid) direct properties and a concomitant increase in indirect property ownership in the form of (liquid) listed securities. This change has enhanced the interest in and stature of commercial properties as an alternative investment class. In the process, listed property securities inevitably start demonstrating attributes more akin to equity stocks and lose the ëperformance-smoothingí attributes typically associated with direct property investment portfolios. To follow the trend towards ownership of listed property securities successfully in South Africa, it is imperative that the differential between capitalisation rates and property yields is diminished in order to entice institutional investors to off-load their direct property holdings. In the paper the relationship between capitalisation rates and property yields in the capital market is explored. As performance measures, capitalisation rates and property yields are defined, and their essential nature is discussed. This is followed by an analysis of their historical patterns. An attempt is made to explain and to reconcile quantitative differences between the two measures. Based on this, prospects for and implications of a better linkage between the two measures in the South African commercial property market are considered.
Gibb, Kenneth, Geoff Meen, and Daniel Mackay. "Choice and Demand in a Social Housing System: Policy Simulations for Glasgow." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper the development of a model simulating an urban housing system dominated by non-market social housing, primarily to forecast demand for social housing under different scenarios. The urban system concerned is the city of Glasgow and its suburbs, a post-industrial city in West Central Scotland. There is an established literature concerned with the development of metropolitan housing market models in both the USA and the UK. The present model draws from both traditions but is heavily influenced by the work of Meen (1999). The Glasgow model is largely demand-determined with only a limited supply-side and market-adjustment through supply adjustment. Data for the model comes from the Scottish House Condition Survey 1996 and from extraneous housing, multiple deprivation, population and household estimates. The focus of the core part of the paper is on the demand-side. Demand in the model is composed of three elements: new household formation, net migration and the tenure and locational choices of existing households. It is this third element that poses the most difficulties and is modelled separately using a nested multinomial logit (NMNL) formulation. The results from the NMNL model attempts to explain the locational, tenure and mobility decisions of existing households. The results are then adopted as conditional probabilities in the simulation model. The paper then sets out the structure of the basic model and reports on the modelís performance across a range of possible scenarios. The paper concludes by examining the academic and policy implications of the model and suggests future avenues for refinement and further work.
Arruñada, Benito. "Comparative Analysis of Institutions Reducing Transaction Costs in Real Estate." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This work analyzes the evolution and structure of the main institutional arrangements devised for reducing transaction costs related to the risk of eviction when selling land or using it as collateral. By comparing private contracting, recording of documents and registration of title systems applied in the US and the main European countries the work aims to identify the common organizational requirements of these institutions. This should help to fill the gap now existing between the needs of practitioners, interested in the organization of effective titling systems, and different strands of the academic literature that at most inform on their end results.
Thion, Bernard, and Tatiana Bouzdine Chameeva. "Comparative Analysis of Several Models of Price Indices in Real Estate Transactions." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Annual sector indices are susceptible to price differences provoked by major environmental changes. Therefore, it is really important to take into consideration different situations and apply an appropriate method for constructing WLS estimator. The objective of our research is to compare several well-known methods (in the framework of the repeat sales model) used for constructing house price indices based on unbiased estimators. We intend to show that a weighted least squares estimator (WLS) for the log price index can be improved due to the introduction of time dependency. We tend even to downweight housing units that have been held for a long time more than theory suggests. We suggest that there exist a pragmatic reason for doing this ñ long hold prices are differentially risky because of unknown structure changes.
Tsolacos, Sotiris, Olli Olkkonen, and Tony McGough. "Comparative evidence on the performance of Nordic office property markets." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the office market performance, measured by rents, in two dynamic Nordic office centres Helsinki and Stocholm. A set of factors are considered to study the cyclical activity in rents in these markets. These factors capture the national and regional economic dynamism in the respective office centres and the effect of particular industries, such as the technology sectors, on these two office markets. The study also provides evidence on the degree to which the office rental cycles in Helsinki and Stocholm are synchronous and explanations are put forward. Finally, rent forecasts in these two markets are performed. These forecasts are based on alternative economic and industry performance scenarios.
Sneck, Timo. "Competent ownership in real estate business." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The real estate businessñproject Competent Ownership (Oskito)î focuses on the role of ownership within the real estate industry. Ownership acts as the core upon which , the competitive advantages of real estate industry are for the most based. The project studies specific real estate business issues, especially îentities of possessionî that are large enough to allow the development of specialised businesses. The project is of current interest as the next phase of growth of the Finnish information technology community is likely to primarily take place in areas remote of the very largest population centres. In the start up scenario Finland is a pilot community which is in the process developing second generation information society professions. During the next 10 years, a maximum of 250.000 of such jobs can be created. In Europe the figure will be several millions. In global exchange, someone is always ahead of the others, and Finland is likely to have advantge in this particular field. However, to achieve and maintain a globally leading information technology position is by no means an easy taska and there are several risks involved. The new know-how and expertise gained during the developing of the information technology society will be highly sought-after export material for some years. Soon, however, the same skills will be mastered elsewhere, too. The process of transmitting this knowhow will lead to the creation of considerable foreign part-ownership in Finland. After this period, around 2010, Finland will have to create new tasks and professions of value to the global community, as well as achieve competence in them. In real estate business, understanding the impact of growth centres on the industry is essential. The commercial and real estate strategies of the growth centres provide a course for the entire nation. It is no longer appropriate to speak of areas of growth, in the future Finland will be considered a singke global exchange entity. Many great challenges have to be faced during the transition period. Succesfully meeting these challenges requires areal commercial strategies supporting each other. The first task of the Oskito-project is to find out, how to create a sufficiently reliable vision of the future challenges. The second task is to develop real estate business so that the risks can be kept as manageable as possible. This requires active discussion concerning proper regional real estate strategies. For this purpose, an estimate of the development in the participating towns, up to the year 2010, will be made. An annual conclusion of the number of new jobs created and the consequent building will also be made. The building sites are to be classified according to their special features. As a result a project map, which each participating town updates annually, can be drawn. Companies, city real estate professionals and owners as well as the financers will be aware of the actual situation and able to maintain an accurate, long term regional real estate strategy. In the long run Finland can keep employment high only by investing in knowledge oriented growth clusters, eg. ITC and biotechnology. At the same time new patterns of uncentralized subcontract strategies must be adapted in the industry. As the result the change is huge. On the national level, 5-10 million floor square meters of new business premises has to be built. 10-20 % of people employed year 2010 need new buildings. The amount of this demand based scenario is so high that the real estate industry is unable to carry out concurrent planning, financing, training of new professional qualifications to the employees and create a sound basis for ìcompetent ownershipî in this rapid process. The resources invested in adult education are the balancing factor in this development. Regions build action plans to carry out ìlabour force transformation strategiesî to maintain high employment. These transformation strategies must be included in th regional real estate strategies. The new kind of planning is approached in the OSKITO study by combining single, but important pieces needed to create new practices for the business. This is the best that can be done at this stage of the study. In Vaasa, for example, (population app. 60000, number of jobs app. 30000) the required yearly adult education is calculated to be 750 people, the existing capacity is only sufficient for 250 people per year. An increase in the capacity would, in 10 years, create the need to tehcnically improve 5000 work points in Vaasa. If the adult training is not carried out, the structural unemployment will easily be over 20 %. Wellcome to the new, brave second level on information society. Being one of the first nations on the way, small and transparent Finland can be used as the test laboratory for the other countries. An issue of great importance in regional real estate strategy is understanding the next generation products that are important to the region and to the business that evolves them. Anticipating actions in this context binds the region to the development of global exchange. In the Oskito project models are built to forecast the innovations behind the next generation products and to include these innovations as a part to future oriented adult education. This example shows how knowledge about profound issues should be produced to the persons functioning in real estate business. We are facing a research model that creates genuine new concepts and ways running a business. Concurrently with the research the participating towns test the proposals of the study. The research is financed by varied/diversified participants; a number of cities, real estate owners, financers and building firms. Therefore, it is easy to test the hypothesis in real busines during the research. It seems to be possible to develop the îmost intelligent way of owningî option for different real estate types. The function of the real estate strategy is to ensure, that the ownership of the real estates in the region is in the hands of the most competent operators. Only in this way it is possible to maintain the potential (or the high and sustainable employment) growth of large centres as a constant in an uncertain future. This project , with seven participating towns and a bugdet of 2,5 MFIM, is a part of REMBRAND-technology program.
Papi, Luca, and Massimo Sabbatini. "Competition and risk in the Italian mortgage market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper will investigate recent developments in the Italian real estate lending market. The paper will be organized as follows. Section one will examine the causes of the recent surge of mortgage lending in Italy with special attention on regional disparities. Some empirical comparisons among European markets will be also presented. Section two will deal with the issue of bank competition in the mortgage market. The paper will analyze whether the high growth rate of real estate lending has affected the level of bank competition. Finally, section three will link the tightening of competition that we expect, to the issue of bank risk; the paper will examine lending practices and their effect on the risk profile of Italian banks identifying the main channels through which the real estate sector can affect bank stability.
Gonzalez-Savignat, Mar. "Competition in Air Transport: The Case of the High Speed Train." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This article analyses the potential of the high-speed train to compete on the airline market. The context proposed is hypothetical, given that the high-speed train alternative is not yet available on the route subject to this research. In order to model passenger preferences relative to the characteristics of the alternatives, experimental design techniques are applied, which allow for the design of the market that will be evaluated by current airline passengers. Based upon the information collected, modal choices are analysed, estimating a logit model with both alternatives. Demand modelling allows for the obtaining of the utility that travelers derive from the travel alternatives according to their characteristics, based on which it is possible to predict the substitutability level of the high-speed train in comparison with the plane for different types of journey and travelers. Individual willingness to pay to save travel time under different contexts is also derived. The results obtained confirm that the high-speed train will have an important impact on the airline market, producing a considerable deviation of passengers towards the new railway service. The simulation of different policies related to service variables stresses the fact that this impact will mainly depend on travel time, given that as this time increases, the high-speed train will notably lose market share. This result is verified in the values of time obtained, as individuals derive greater welfare gains from a saving in travelling time that in other associated times. These results provide additional evidence to that which is not very widespread in contexts such as the one analysed in this article.
Sebastian, Steffen, R. Maurer, and Martin Pitzer. "Construction of a transaction based price index for the Paris housing market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In this paper, we calculate a transaction based price index for apartments in Paris (France). The heterogeneous character of real estate is taken into account by using a multiple regression model. The functional form is specified using a general Box/Cox-function. The data base covers about 65% of all transactions of the Paris housing market in 1990-1999. Correction for incomplete data leads to a sample of 84†686 transactions. This sample is by far the largest ever used in comparable studies, and is therefore internationally a unique data coverage for a housing market.
Daly, Jacqui. "Consumer Behaviour in the Valuation of Residential Property: A Comparative Study in the UK, Ireland and Australia." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Research conducted to PhD level investigates consumer behaviour in the valuation of residential property. The research, which utilises a qualitative methodology, is conducted on a cross-national comparative basis in the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia. Initially the behaviour of residential homebuyers' is explored with personal interviews conducted with residential homebuyers in the three countries. Consumers' reaction to demand-related factors is investigated with further work considering valuers' and whether they display any obvious differences in practice to reflect differences in buyer perception. Specifically, economic and financial sustainability is considered in terms of the residential valuation process used by valuers, who are employed by the main mortgage lenders in the countries studied. Economic sustainability features highly in the home buying decision-making process used by residential homebuyers in Australia. Whether buyers behave similarly across the three countries is investigated as is the behaviour displayed by valuers in terms of buyer perceptions. The research adopts a qualitative approach utilising personal interviews as its main research instrument. Generally, in the past comparative research has been qualitatively oriented, as it is not normally involved in testing theory. Rather it is designed to generate and/or apply theory that is then interpreted. The use of videoconferencing in the data collection process is also reported. The practical and educational implications arising from the research are discussed with the opportunity for further research arising from the study outlined.
Ivanička, Koloman, and Pierre Robin. "Contractual savings and their impact on the real-estate in Slovakia." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Creation of contract savings scheme in nineties and its evolution. Actors in the market, legislation, market share, banking products. Impact of the contractual savings on the new housing construction, reconstructions, affordability of housing units, and on the economy as the whole. Partnerships with contractual savings banks. Competitive forms of funding the new housing construction. Problems of the contractual savings, and possible solution for the future. Some copmparisons of contractual savings in Slovakia and in France.
Burns, Malcolm, and Josep Roca Cladera. "Contrasting indications of Polycentrism within Spainís Metropolitan Urban Regions." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. One of the three key spatial development objectives contained within the European Spatial Development Perspective (CEE, 1999) seeks the ëdevelopment of a polycentric and balanced urban system and strengthening of the partnership between urban and rural areasí (p.19) in order to achieve regionally balanced development. Recent evidence arising from on-going work addressing the territorial and functional characteristics of Spainís seven principal metropolitan areas (Barcelona, Madrid, Malaga, Seville, Valencia, Bilbao and Saragossa) within the context of the south-west European urban system, indicates significant differences in the extent to which patterns of polycentric regional development can be identified. For example with regard to labour markets and origin-destination travel flows, it is possible to detect a certain degree of polycentrism in the case of Barcelonaís metropolitan area, and a similar tendency, albeit to a lesser extent, in the case of Bilbao. By contrast, in the cases of Madrid, Malaga, Seville and Valencia, what can be observed is clearly defined centralism concentrated upon the capital city of each of these areas. This paper addresses the role of the capital cities within these seven Spanish metropolitan regions. Furthermore, it questions the extent to which there is a need for change and questions how spatial planning measures might contribute to a more balanced urban metropolitan system in Spain, taking into consideration local ëstrategic planningí objectives and European spatial development policy.
McAllister, Patrick. "Convergence in European Real Estate Markets: Theoretical Perspectives and Empirical Evidence." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper examines the concept and investigates the evidence of convergence in European real estate investment markets. The fact that the term ëconvergenceí has been described as suffering from ìmeaning-overloadî has meant that outside the real estate literature its characteristics and causes have generated a substantial debate (Quah, 1996, p.1). Since conceptual foundations shape empirical investigation, clarity in definition and denotation is important. Hence the paper examines a number of facets of convergence. Particular attention is paid the concepts of b-convergence and s-convergence, their implications for patterns of growth and co-movement and the well-developed methodological critique of convergence empirics. Given the manifest relevance of national and regional economic growth to real estate performance, empirical research on regional economic convergence within the EU is critically reviewed. Given the linkages of real estate investment markets to wider capital markets, empirical research on capital market integration within the EU is also considered. Whilst acknowledging the limitations of real estate data for many EU markets, a number convergence tests are applied to the available data.
Addae-Dapaah, Kwame, and Yeo Hui Siang. "Currency Risk and International Diversification of Property Investment." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The paper focuses on the impact of exchange rate volatility on international diversification of direct investment in property for the period 1986-1997 inclusive. After computing the currency unadjusted and adjusted returns and risk for, and correlation of returns between the sampled countries, Matlab Optimization Toolbox is used to determine the optimal portfolio composition. It is found, through statistical tests, that although the upside/downside currency risk of a single foreign countryís property investment can be substantial, the risk is not statistically significant. Similarly, the difference between the unadjusted and adjusted optimal portfolio returns is found to be statistically insignificant to imply that hedging may not be necessary for a well-diversified portfolio of international real estate investment.
Pryce, Gwilym. "Debt Usage and the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper examines the impact of mortgage interest tax deductions on the demand for mortgage debt in the UK. The tax advantage (since withdrawn in the UK) was introduced as a means of making home ownership more attractive to less wealthy borrowers who could only finance a small proportion of their house purchase†with equity. As well as affecting tenure choice decisions, the structure of the mortgage interest relief system also affected mortgage debt decisions. This is because those in different tax brackets benefit differently from mortgage interest deductions, subject to two constraints. First, since 1974/75 interest deductions have been limited to that on a £25,000 mortgage (raised to $30,000 in 1983/84) and second, various ceilings†have been introduced on the maximum tax rate at which interest on a loan can be deducted. The goal of this paper is to explain individual household loan to value ratios in a†modelling framework that accounts for the incentives of the tax structure and the impact of borrowing constraints.
Reyers, John. "Design liability and Design insurance: An International Perspective." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Design liability relates generally to risks and negligent actions in design. Design liability in the UK arises either contractually between the parties or under the tort of negligence. Further contractual relations may be created with those who are not party to a principal contract by entering into collateral warranties. The belief that there are only two distinct levels of liability i.e. reasonable skill and care and fitness for purpose has been challenged. It is claimed that a ëspectrum of liabilityí exists (Gaafar and Perry 1999). Designersí liability may be to exercise reasonable skill and care in traditional construction contractual arrangements, however, this may be extended to include a guarantee that the design will be fit for its purpose, particularly where the contractor undertakes design (Donohoe 1999). Design professionals in the UK principally adopt Professional Indemnity Insurance (PII) as their primary method of risk transfer. PII ëÖprovides cover in respect to any loss from a claim made against a designer in respect of any negligent act, or omission.í Cornes 1994 p215. This is done by the payment of premiums, which are calculated to reflect an individual or organisationís past performance and exposure to risk. The premiums create a fund, which will indemnify the insured for claims made related to the insured risks. The cover may be subject to a ëdeductibleí amount, which is met by the designer in the event of a claim and financial limitations to the level of indemnity provided by the insurance company. It is a requirement of some professional institutions that their members are insured against breach of professional duty. Professionals approach design within statutory and advisory limits, procedures and guides that may reduce exposure to risk (Building Act 1984, Building Regulations 1985, Construction (Design and Management) Regulations) but at the same time set a standard or statutory duty. A number of risk avoidance or transfer techniques can be used and each will be suited to particular kinds of risk or exposure. For example, collateral warranties can create stronger links to share risk between parties; avoidance of risk-laden activities such as supervision of the construction process or specialisation in particular design services reduces designer risk exposure. Further examples include ëdeductibleí payments made on any insurance claim and financial limitations to the level of indemnity provided by the insurance company. In the UK the construction industry is seeking a more collaborative approach to design and production. The sharing of risk is an essential precept and concept for such initiatives as design and build, prime contracting, Private Public Partnership and Public Finance Initiative. Hence opportunities exist for consolidating the risk across design production teams. Inherent Defects Insurance or Building Usersí Insurance against Latent Defects (BUILD) have been in limited use in the UK (Insurance Institute of London 1992). The research will discuss the problems encountered for designers regarding these policies, which do not relieve them of the necessity to maintain professional indemnity cover. New insurance products are available for joint ventures and design and build teams (Port-Hull 1997). The culture in other countries in terms of design liability is rather different. This affects not only the product of the design process but the process itself including relationships and attitudes of the design team involved. The acceptance of insurance against a project or product rather than the designer in France, known as decennial insurance, has led to different approaches to the design process and a different attitude towards design liability from both designers and their clients (Atkins Planning 1985). In the French system latent defects insurance and material damage first party risk cover, which permits immediate remediation for serious defects without awaiting the determination of liability, indemnify building owners. The continued existence, even for a set amount of time, of an insurance policy regardless of the continued existence or solvency of the designers brings with it a greater certainty for clients or customers. This may also simplify the legal and claims processes. A control bureaux report on structural, health and safety and fire considerations and inherent defects insurance will only commence after their certification of a building, thus integrating many building control functions (Insurance Institute of London 1992). It is more common in the USA for designersí activities to be informed by advice from insurance companies or brokers (Redeker 1995). In the USA theories of public choice and economic regulation affect the law of tort therefore legal results and legal changes are ultimately determined by group behaviour. Interested parties allocate resources and so the power balance between the groups, within a free-market, affects liability law (Gedde and Brahmasrene 1999). This holds interesting implications for international practice, as this is not fully reflected in the less litigious cultures of Europe. Design teams, though based within one legal framework and insurance system, will operate internationally both in terms of customers and the production and realisation of their designs. This offers both complexities and opportunities for managing liability. This could be illustrated by Miller (James) and Partners v Whitworth Street Estates (1970) where it was held that the law of one country applied to the interpretation of the contract and the law of another country applied to the procedure to be adopted in arbitration. Of prime importance to designers is the understanding of the reality of risk in terms of probability and severity for each operation they are involved with. When operating internationally designers must be aware of the context in which they operate in terms of legal framework and insurance culture. This paper examines the area of design liability within the UK, U.S. and France. Perceptions of risk and liability regarding design have been collected from PII insurers and professionals engaged in design functions within the UK, the US and France. Design professionals that operate internationally as well as design professionals within the study countries have been interviewed to ascertain their perceptions of the risk and liability associated with their practice. The benefits of each system are evaluated and compared and extensive commentary given on the progression of systems in the context of claims made and application within each culture and legal framework. Analysis is given on the future of design liability and appropriate insurance or other means of risk management in the context of increasing globalisation and possible harmonisation.
Buzu, Olga. "Development of professions related to real estate activities in the Republic of Moldova." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The article deals with the problem of the development of professions related to real estate market in transition economies. In the Republic of Moldova the real estate market started to develop rapidly in late 90ís, after the first stage of the privatization of the state property. The spontaneous development of the market had determined the emergence of numerous realtor and appraisal companies, and real estate exchanges. The higher education system was not adapted to the new requirements of the market economy, thus, a significant part of the specialists involved in real estate market activities, do not have the appropriate theoretical and professional background. Today, on the real estate market of Moldova there are 1000 realtors, more than 200 valuers, who work in private and state owned companies. The problems of professional development, of elaboration of new professional requirements to the real market participants, as well as the perspectives of professional associations creation are discussed in the article. The article deals also with the licensing and certification of real estate market participants. The two possibilities of certification ñ to introduce the mechanism of state certification or to develop the certification within professional associations are analyzed.
Choi, Hak. "Differences in the Demand for Housing by Owners and Investors." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper will distinguish between owner demand for housing, and that of investors. Such differentiation in demand should be viewed as an integral part of the decision to buy. A durable goods approach to homeowner demand for housing is developed, and then the traditional investment consideration is modified. An estimation using the durable goods approach reveals that demand for housing by owners is positively affected by rent, real income, and general price level; and negatively affected by the housing price and interest rate. The modified investment equation produces better estimation with correct parameters. Property price is positively related to owner demand for housing units, and negatively related to tenant demand.
Rodríguez, Susana Martínez, and Andrés Fernández Méndez. "Direct Tax Harmonization in the European Monetary Union and Economic Globalization." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. since the signing of the Treaty of Rome in 1957, we have seen the proliferation of a number of informs and initiatives on fiscal harmonization in the context of the European Union, but the results of fiscal harmonization have been quite uneven. The advances in the harmonization of indirect taxation are undeniable, being concentrated on VAT land special assessments. In the field of direct taxation the creation of a European Common Market based on the establishment of an unified capital market and on the existence of companies with authentic European dimension, requires the design of harmonized taxes for companies as well as the homogenization of capital rent taxation. In the field of direct fiscal harmonization, attention has been focused on enterprising taxation, treating individual taxation less exhaustively. We must point out that in the field of direct fiscal harmonization, the priority of the EU is the harmonization of business tax. This priority can be explained by the fact that traditionally, the European Commission has considered that the current fiscal differences in personal taxation do not represent a big problem as they do not have a negative incidence in the conditions of free competition between the members countries of the Community. The Commission considers that harmonizing measures should be included for certain particular aspects of the structure of direct taxes[1], but a complete harmonization is not expected since the Commission supports that these taxes are national instruments of economic and social policy. In this study we have intended to take into account different aspects of direct fiscal harmonization in the EU. First of all, we include a study of the different harmonizing proposals suggested throughout the process of integration after the signing of the Treaty of Rome, completing this study with an analysis of the harmonizing regulations which were approved. Likewise, we paid attention to different doctrinal opinions related to direct fiscal harmonization, making an evaluation of the harmonizing process. Direct fiscal harmonization in the european union will have to face several difficulties, which will be analyzed in the present study. Among these difficulties we have to emphasize the following: 1. The current fiscal differences in the EU are important in many cases, both in business tax matters and in income tax or VAT. It will take a long time to reduce these differences in spite of the desires of the member countries. In the case of business tax we found high tax rates for 1999, as the 45% of Germany and 40.17% of Belgium and substantially lower tax rates as in the case of the current 28% for 1999 in Finland, Ireland and Sweden. Additionally, there are important differences in tax bases as we will analyze in the chapter of this study. In the field of indirect taxation greater progress has been attained, although it is true that the differences are still important. At present, VAT tax brackets vary considerably: normal rates are between 15% and 25% and reduced rates between 5% and 17%. This heterogeneity could entail the misrepresentation of competition or trade diversion which as a last resort, would alter the securing of common market. In fact, the existence of fifteen different systems of tax compliance and control does not agree either with the principle of common market or with the necessity for Europe to occupy a competitive place in relation with the rest of the world. / 2. The existing fiscal oasis in the EU, which gives high benefits to their countries. As an example we will cite Luxembourg, a country whose financial sector contributes approximately 30% to its GPD. / 3. It is very difficult to carry on with reforms, as decisions on fiscal matters must be taken unanimously. Recently, Germany and France have proposed the idea that only a qualified majority be necessary to carry on with the necessary reforms. However, the United Kingdom and Luxembourg categorically refused this idea. / 4. Heterogeneity in tax collection matters and lack of exchange of information between the different national fiscal authorities. The advances in indirect fiscal harmonization (VAT) are greater than in the field of direct taxation, the cooperation in direct taxes matters (business tax and personal income tax) being practically nonexistent. Each country, in the field of direct taxation, is totally free to set tax bases, charge scale, deductions and even an exchange of information among the different member countries. On the other hand we must deal with the process of direct fiscal harmonization in the EU in the context of Globalization (dynamic process of growing freedom and world integration of labor markets, goods, services technology and capitals), analyzing the implications of globalization of economics and capital markets for fiscal systems. Once classified the direct fiscal harmonization in the context of globalization, we will study the different current tax distortions, as well as the problems they imply, treating to propose several solutions from the theoretical point of view. Following, we will analyze the evolution of direct and indirect taxation in the area of ODCE in the last decades, especially focusing on the current situation of business tax in international context, explaining the main features of this tax in the countries of the ODCE. We will finish this presentation with a series of conclusions about direct fiscal harmonization in the EU, treating to state the future tendencies of this harmonizing process.
Yavas, Abdullah. "Do Riskier Borrowers Borrow More?" In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This note studies how mortgage borrowers with different levels of default risk would self-select between different loan-to-value ratios. It shows that for large default costs there exists a separating equilibrium in which low-risk borrowers choose bigger loan amounts than high-risk borrowers. This equilibrium offers a theoretical explanation for the seemingly counter-intuitive empirical result of Campbell and Dietrich (1983) that loans with lower initial loan-to-value ratios have higher default rates. If default costs are small, then the separating equilibrium involves high-risk borrowers choosing a bigger loan amount than low risks. For an intermediate value of default costs, the unique equilibrium is a pooling equilibrium.
Holmes, Andrew, and Barrett A. Slade. "Do Tax-Deferred Exchanges Impact Purchase Price? Evidence form the Phoenix Apartment Market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Many authors have commented on the compliance risk associated with tax-deferred exchanges. However, no published studies explicitly address whether the risks associated with the exchange process impacts the price at which exchanged assets trade. Using a unique data set that separates buy and sell side transactions for non-direct exchanges, this study examines the price impact of tax-deferred exchanges on apartment transactions in the Phoenix, Arizona market. Consistent with the price pressure hypothesis originally developed by Scholes (1972) and Kraus and Stoll (1972), the data show that exchange participants pay an economically significant premium to acquire replacement assets. A conventional hedonic price index is generated to investigate the rational bounds of the exchange premium. While the impact of an exchange is large, the premium is within the rational bounds.
Prizzon, Franco, and Luisa Ingaramo. "Dynamics in the Italian Real Estate Market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The present paper deals with the progressive approaching which has been taking place in Italy in the last few years between the interests of real estate investments and the interests of financial investments. The creation of a portfolio made up of a multiplicity of investments represents a complex procedure implying the adoption of some portfolio management techniques, as already happens with the investments in the stock market and in the bond market. In the case of real estates, there is a further obstacle, that is a lack in transparency due to the limitation of the available data. The characteristics typical of real estate markets have encouraged the spread of some portfolio management methods based on the choice of single estates rather than on procedures linked to mathematical optimisation or to quantitative analysis. In this kind of approach, the portfolio is created investment after investment ñ the single real estates are selected according to parameters which are deemed as optimal (localisation, typology, kind and validity of the lease agreement) and apart from the analysis of the possible interrelations among the goods. In particular, while defining the risk factors which can affect the single real estate markets, it is important to make a distinction between systematic risk components (which cannot be reduced through the diversification process) and non-systematic risk components (which can be controlled by means of a suitable investmentsí diversification). The non-systematic risk applies to the single real estate typologies and/or to the single geographic area. In that way, it is possible to reduce the risk considerably by combining the different real estate investments in an appropriate way. The present paper is aimed at presenting the first results of a work concerning the study of the dynamics in the Italian real estate market which has been carried out analysing the historical series of the data collected by the Osservatorio Immobiliare di Nomisma (Nomisma Real Estate Observatory). The aim of the analysis has been that of singling out the non-systematic risk linked to use destination and localisation (main Italian urban areas).
Neuteboom, Peter. "Dynamics in the Italian Real Estate Market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. A fixed interest-rate on their mortgages offers a homeowner long term certainty about the monthly mortgage payments. On the other hand, adjustable interest-rates are on average lower them fixed interest-rates. In short, certainty about monthly payments has a price. In Europe the period in which interest-rates are fixed varies between 1 month (and less) and 30 years. Besides individual attitudes of homeowners, are there significant differences between European countries. In the United Kingdom for instance, homeowners choose on average for an adjustable interest-rate, in the Netherlands people typically choose for a fixed interest-rate of some 10 years. The preference for a fixed-rate or adjustable interest-rate isnít much influenced by the nominal level of the mortgage interest-rate itself. Two questions can be raised. (1) What explains the difference between European countries and between homeowners within a country in their choice for a fixed interest-rate or not? Institutional differences and/or social-economic and psychological factors will play an important role. (2) Secondly, what strategy, i.e. his or her choice for a fixed interest rate, would be financially optimal for the homeowner and under which conditions? This paper will concentrate mainly on the second question, the case for the Netherlands will be point of departure. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo-simulation we will answer what the better strategy for the homeowner is. Two models will be evaluated. Firstly the case in which the homeowner has to hang on to his choice for an adjustable or fixed interest-rate, for the lifetime of the mortgage (i.e. 30 years). Secondly a model will be presented in which the homeowner can change from adjustable to fixed interest-rates and visa versa, depending on the level of nominal interest-rates.
Tiwari, Piyush. "Economics of Mortgage Termination in India." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Mortgage termination due to prepayment or default is an important issue in pricing of mortgage and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) due to its stochastic nature. In developing countries where MBS is not yet fully developed, mortgage termination affects the flow of funds to the lenders. Recent literature has used option price models (OPM) to analyze mortgage terminantion. Prepayment is a ëcall optioní whose price is dependent on fluctuation in market interest rates. Default is a 'put option' whose price is dependent on house price and interest rate. However, the termination of mortgage in housing is not as `ruthlessí as OPM theory would suggest, primarily because households are not financiers in `stricter senseí. Recent literature has used Cox proportional hazard model to model mortgage termination. The idea is that other household related variables besides option price of the instrument jointly determine the mortgage termination. We use Cox proportional hazard model to analyze termination of mortgage in India. The results indicate that financial concerns (like option price, loan to value ratio, house price and monthly principal and interest to income ratio) are important determinants besides household characteristics. Self employed or low educated or single borrowers have less probability of prepaying the loan. An important variable inducing prepayment is irregular repayment behaviour of borrower. If loan repayment is in arrears for some months, borrowersí often terminate their liability by prepaying.
Bravi, Marina, and Isabella M. Lami. "Efficiency and equity of real estate taxation in Italy: an empirical analysis." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The theme of this paper is the relationship between the real estate market and real estate taxation. In Italy, the system of taxing real estate, both in terms of property ownership tax and tax on property sales, depends more or less directly on the assessments of the ìCatastoî [the Italian real estate registration and tax assessment office]. Although real estate taxation certainly has the effect of blocking the fluidity of the real estate market, it has not however managed to become an efficient source of financing for the Public Administration. The gap between official property tax assessments and market prices reduces the income from taxation. Beginning with two data bases containing market values and official property tax assessments related to 6,000 property sales in 1998-99 in the city of Turin, we performed a series of multiple regressions in order to calculate this differential, showing the main causes. The reforms of the Italian ìCatastoî currently underway should have profound repercussions on precisely these elements of inefficiency in the ìCatastoî, and therefore also the system of real estate taxation. This case is considered pertinent to this conference because of a series of aspects that all lead back to the above mentioned theme: verification of the efficiency of property tax assessments and identification of various types of errors; verification of the extent that ìCatastoî reforms lead to an improvement in property tax assessments; analysis of the consequences of the Catasto reform on the system of taxing real estate; consideration of the possible effects of this change in property tax assessments on the real estate market. // The international dimension of the 8th European Real Estate Society Conference-ERES could furthermore allow an interesting comparison between the situation in different European situations.
Bernardos, Gonzalo, and Juan Alujas. "El Boom Inmobiliario en EspaÒa. ComparaciÛn de dos etapas (1986-91 y 1997-2001)." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. El principal objetivo de este artÌculo es analizar las principales similitudes y diferencias entre el periodo de expansiÛn del mercado inmobiliario observado en la etapa 1986-91 y el actual ciclo inmobiliario. Asimismo, el trabajo tambiÈn pretende tratar las repercusiones que los diferentes modelos de crecimiento econÛmico de la economÌa espaÒola han comportado sobre el mercado inmobiliario en ambas etapas. Para conseguir dichos objetivos, el artÌculo trata de la formaciÛn y destrucciÛn de burbujas especulativos en la economÌa y, especÌficamente, en el mercado inmobiliario. EspecÌficamente, son considerados las variaciones en la demanda de viviendas motivada en una parte sustancial por el desarrollo de polÌticas macroeconÛmicas, asÌ como la respuesta que la oferta de dichos activos tiene ante dichos cambios.

El Municipio de Bonito, situado en el Estado de Mato Grosso del Sur, en Èl limite sur del Pantanal, viene caracterizando-se en el principal destino brasileÒo para la exploraciÛn del Turismo EcolÛgico. Ofrece un ecosistema rico en biodiversidad de base calc·reo; el paisaje tÌpico es el cerrado con un clima ameno, abrigando rÌos subterr·neos, sumideros, resurgencias, lagos y grutas (en mas de 100 existentes, son explotadas comercialmente solamente dos, hasta ahora). Es notable la variedad de peces, aves y otros animales, adem·s de su rica y diversificada vegetaciÛn, ofrece zambullidas libres en rÌos cristalinos, visitaciÛn a grutas, cavernas, baÒos en cascadas, caminadas en los bosques, cabalgadas y deportes de aventura (mountain bike, rappel, vuelos de ultra leve, rafting, zambullidas en cavernas y paraglide). La segmentaciÛn de la demanda es distribuida entre el Ecoturismo, el Turismo de Eventos, el Turismo CientÌfico, el Turismo Cultural, HistÛrico y ArqueolÛgico y el Turismo de Ocio. Los gobiernos Federal, Estadual y Municipal vienen apoyando el desarrollo de Bonito, a travÈs de Programas Eco turÌsticos que visan la organizaciÛn y la construcciÛn de infraestructura b·sica para atender la demanda creciente observada, con el objetivo de la implementaciÛn del Turismo EcolÛgico sustentable. Como resultado parcial de estas acciones, fue iniciado la construcciÛn de un Aeropuerto Internacional y est· siendo elaborado un Plan Director Municipal. El parque hotelero local, todavÌa es amador y no atiende, con excepciones, a las exigencias b·sicas del eco turista internacional. Este trabajo presenta dados obtenidos del potencial turÌstico y de la infraestructura hotelera del Municipio de Bonito, donde apunta la segmentaciÛn y carencias de la demanda, indicando potenciales oportunidades de inversiÛn en hotelerÌa profesional de nivel internacional. En especial, se destacan los n˙meros practicados en el mercado local, que pueden ser aplicados en la construcciÛn de cenaros en analices de viabilidad de emprendimientos.

Collins, Paul, and László Morsányi. "Enclosed Shopping Centre and Retail Park Development in post communist Budapest, Hungary." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Hungary has made huge strides in its endeavour to re-establish a thriving market economy after 40 years of a state led command economy. It is now a member of NATO and wishes to accede to European Union membership in the next three to four years. Along with the two other leading ex Soviet-bloc states of Poland and the Czech Republic, Hungary has also seen the renaissance of its property market. Whilst some private ownership remained during the communist period, widespread private ownership has now been re-established and much new development to so-called ëwesterní standard has been constructed. The first wave of new buildings in the early 1990ís were in the office sector to serve West European and American front-line businesses who were looking to make there mark in the new economy. Then from the mid 1990ís, Hungary, and in particular Budapest, witnessed the development of a considerable number of both in-town enclosed shopping centres and edge of town retail parks. Whilst a number of communist party showpiece shopping centres were developed towards the late 1970ís and the early 1980ís, nothing can be compared to the scale, colour and variety of the new provision that has now made its impact on the stock and pattern of Budapest shops. These retail developments have been almost wholly developer led and constructed in locations and on such a scale, not really envisaged or properly planned for by the policy planners of most municipalities. The early days seems to have been marked by a desire to reap new sources of local revenue which appears to have been as important, if not more so, than a properly planned approach. Also of interest has been the fact that many units within some of the enclosed shopping centres have been ësoldí to retailers, rather than let on lease, as has been the normal practice in American and West European centres. Some concerns are beginning to be registered that not only are many of these outlets primarily the preserve of the nouveau riche of Hungary, but the sheer scale of provision along with that still in the development pipeline, represents a potentially massive oversupply. More latterly, the property market has also sought to serve the demands of Hungaryís restructured industrial economy and the growing demand for imported goods, with the provision of new factories and distribution premises. The housing sector has also been active, spurred by the recent availability of new forms of mortgage finance and more attractive interest rates. The paper will examine some of the major trends in the provision, use and ownership of property over the last fifteen to twenty years, with particular reference to the development of enclosed shopping centres and retail parks. The paper will also attempt to speculate on what future prospects may hold.
Karytinos, Aristotle, and Vassiliki Vlachostergiou. "Estimating Commercial Property rentals in the Greek Market using Multiple regression analysis." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The examination of the application of multiple regression analysis as a tool for modelling real estate aspects has been the object of several research papers. The latter mainly target to the explanation of commercial and residential property values and rental prices through the statistical analysis of their characteristics. The aim of this paper is to examine the possibility of using multiple regression analysis for explaining rental prices of commercial property in the Greek property market. The results of the analysis are subsequently compared with similar studies referring to the international property market. The relevant available literature has been thoroughly examined the factors which affect commercial and especially office rental prices have been identified and a pragmatic survey has been conducted for the selection of the factors, which were going to be considered for the creation of the statistical model. The final selection of the variables of the model was additionally determined by restrictions and limitations imposed by the nature of the factors, the availability of the data and most important by the limited time available for the study. The sample used for the statistical analysis derived from Athens city centre, where data are easier to acquire and respective transactions are representative of the market. The final regression model was acquired based on a sound statistical analysis, in order for a satisfactory explanatory level to be achieved. Alternative forms of analysis have also been attempted, such as of log-linear models or introduction in the linear regression model of alternative sets of variables. It should be noted that several factors with a potentially significant explanatory power have been omitted from the analysis, due to time restrictions and the increased complexity involved in the data collection. This fact has dictated the need for the presentation of potential alternatives and additions to the model, which could provide improved results and consist, thus the object of future research. The paper concludes with general comments on the Greek property market, an overview of its evolution during the past years, the expected growth and the way that these can be reflected in similar analyses and statistical models, incorporating the factor time as well.
Rodríguez, José Ángel, Vicente Caballer, and Maria dos Anjos Ramos. "Estimating housing market value using regression models." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The aim of this paper is to determinate the contribution of economic, demographic and climatologic variables in the Spanish housing market value (both new and second-hand market), with data of the different provinces. Starting from housing dealing prices grouped together by regions, and using regression analysis, we obtain as a result explanatory equations of price with a high determination coefficient. In this work we also estimate other variables such as provincial capital index and inter-provincial dispersal index. This one, uses estimations concerning autonomous regions in order to calculate housing market value in the provinces.
Hendershott, Patric H., Bryan D. Macgregor, and Raymond Y. C. Tse. "Estimation of the Rental Adjustment Process." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Rental adjustment equations have been estimated for a quarter century. In the U.S., models have used the deviation of the actual vacancy rate from the natural rate as the main explanatory variable, while in the UK, drivers of the demand for space have dominated the estimation. The recent papers of Hendershott (1996) and Hendershott, Lizieri and Matysiak (HLM, 1999) fall into the former category. We re-estimate these equations using alternative formulations and present evidence that changes in real interest rates were not capitalized into Sydney and London real land prices. We then derive a model incorporating supply and demand factors within an Error Correction framework, and show how the U.S. and UK traditions are special cases of this more general formulation. We next estimate this equation using data from the City of London office market. Our initial specification of this more generalized model is greatly superior to the vacancy rate model. Finally, we estimate a two-equation variant with a separate vacancy rate equation; this model also performs much better than that of HLM. Importantly, our model passes standard modern econometric requirements for unit roots and co-integration.
Kelly, Jeremy, Corin Thoday, and Rachel Talty. "Euro-Logistics: What is influencing occupiersí locational decisions?" In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The structure of the logistics sector across Europe is currently experiencing significant change. This paper briefly outlines the historical and current structure of the market and considers what are the main drivers of occupierís location decisions. The main focus of the paper is an attempt to quantify the factors that motivate occupiers to locate in particular areas. This is achieved through an extension of the Jones Lang LaSalle E-REGI modelling process which ranks Europeís regions in terms of a series of economic and property related variables. The paper concludes with an attempt to highlight the key locations revealed by the ranking system.
Ball, Asli. "European Corporate Location: The Choice Between Cities." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The service sector has been the major generator of demand for office space. With globalisation, there has been increased competition between countries to attract businesses. Some countries, like Ireland, encourage this by tax incentives. Despite being the most expensive location in Europe in terms of office space and labour force, London still attracts many corporate occupiers. Northern European countries, likewise, are attractive for service sector businesses through their advanced infrastructure facilities and highly skilled workers. None of these issues, however, is sufficient on its own to determine why a city becomes attractive for businesses. This paper adopts a comparative approach for assessing the underlying reasons for corporate location choice combining the factors stated above, as well as exploring factors including economic and political stability, cost of living, office supply and office lease structures. The aim is to produce a ìcorporate friendliness matrixî and to test it against the presence of businesses in a certain location. The cities considered in this study are the ìservice sector capitalsî of Europe in terms of economic output.
Laposa, Steven, and Mark Charlton. "European Vs. US Multinationals. A Comparison of Corporate Real Estate Holdings." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper compares the corporate real estate holdings of European and US multinational corporations. The authors initially develop several benchmarks based on accounting and balance sheet information, and then test for significant differences by industries and sectors between European and US firms. We select firms meeting criteria on multinationalism, total assets, and market capitalization from our database of 1,600 US firms and 2,200 European firms. A priori, we believe European firms have higher percentages of property, plant, and equipment to total assets than US firms. Our conclusion postulates a variety of explanations of the corporate real estate asset differences based on our findings.
Fleming, David, and John Storr. "Evaluating Building Environments a Phenomenological Approach." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. "In an earlier paper Fleming and Storr (1999) outlined the development of research into office building environments using a phenomenological approach. The need for a paradigm shift was argued to be caused by shorcomings found in existing work. Literature in the facilities and property management disciplines focusses on two related areas: space management and design (e.g. Duffy F.1999). and questions of human productivity in the workplace (e.g. Leaman & Bordass, 1997). Methodologically, these approaches evaluate the significance of design and management strategies by post-occupancy or diagnostic studies based on a series of defined technical criteria. By example, Leifer's (1999) evaluation of four Auckland office buildings uses 24 variables including temperature, air quality, lighting etc. Only two of the variables, ""overall satisfaction"" and ""ability to do work"" allow respondents to express opinion on more subjectively derived issues. Hinks & McNay (1999) rank 23 Key performance indicators defined by expert panels including members of premises departments. Current work is, therefore, inherently positivist in nature focussing on technically derived issues. Matters of occupier perception are almost entirely ignored. Fleming and Storr's phenomenological approach for the first time identifies variables defined only upon occupiers' perceptions. The analysis demonstrates that the technical issues used in other studies miss indicators significant to building occupiers."
Lausberg, Carsten. "Evidence of its Importance and Instruments to Handle it. The Real Estate Market Risk of Banks." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper deals with a risk that has been widely neglected in both academia and practice: the real estate market risk. It is an integral part of any real estate investment and therefore its existence has always been knownóbut not much else. Surprisingly, very little research has been done on the riskís causes and effects or its importance, nor have real estate investors found ways to handle it. The paper starts by defining and classifying different types of real estate market risk. A closer look reveals that banks are exposed to the risk in many ways, be it directly (e.g., through real estate owned) or indirectly (e.g., through mortgage loans). In the second part of the paper evidence from several empirical studies is presented which underline the importance of the real estate market risk for financial institutions. The author uses a three-factor APT-model to examine the sensitivity of German bank stock returns to fluctuations of the real estate market. The results indicate that the German banks from the sample indeed have a significant real estate market risk, depending on the volume of their real estate-related assets. A review of the current literature on real estate risk management reveals that most banks are by no means in a position to manage real estate market risk effectively. This result combined with the discovered importance of the risk makes it necessary to develop new and better instruments for risk management. The author presents his ideas for various instruments for measuring and protecting against real estate market risk, i.e., a geographical information system and a sensitivity analysis, some of which have been successfully tested in a German bank. The paper ends with a description of the most urgent steps in the direction of a complete risk management system for real estate risks.
McGough, Tony, Nigel Almond, and William Rodney. "Examining trends in rents and yields within the UK residential investment market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Over the past century the private rented sector has witnessed considerable change, not least the reduction from representing 90% of the housing stock at the beginning of the 20th century, to only 10% at the end. Given this change it is hardly surprising that little data exists in modern times on the private rented sector relative to other sectors including the owner occupied market and those for commercial property. This may also explain the limited research undertaken in this sector. The recent rise in house prices in the UK has led to concerns over the ability of many income earners to be able to afford their own property. With Government figures also showing structural changes in the population over the next 15 years, with a significant increase in single person households, greater pressures will be placed on the housing stock with a likely trend towards an increase in renting compared to owner occupation within certain classes of society. This paper will draw on data for rents, yields and house prices together with key economic indicators in an attempt to identify key turning points and trends within the privately rented residential market, both at the macro level, but also within individual regions, in particular central London. By applying other sources of information consideration will be given to the reasons behind these changes and the implications this has for the future role for this sector within the UK housing market. Based on these initial findings the paper will set out an agenda for further investigations into the privately rented housing market in order to provide for a more comprehensive understanding of changes within the sector and the potential for modelling future trends.
Lipscomb, Joseph, John Harvey, and Harold Hunt. "Exchange-Rate Risk Mitigation with Price-Level-Adjusting Mortgages:The Case of the Mexican UDI." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In 1995, Mexico introduced a credit system based on a price-level-adjusting unit of account called the Unidad de Inversion (UDI), which is Spanish for unit of investment. The Bank of Mexico maintains an UDI Index, which sets the peso value of an UDI on any given day. Loans denominated in UDIs maintain their purchasing power and provide a real rate of return in the local currency, pesos. The focus of this study is the real rate of return earned by dollar investors in UDI mortgages. Most dollar investors fear exposure to exchange rate losses in unstable currencies. We examine exchange rate patterns relative to purchasing-power-parity to find investment timing strategies that cause dollar investments in Mexicoís UDI mortgages to earn a real rate of return that equals or exceeds the fixed real rates earned by peso investors.
Trifonov, Nikolai Yu.. "Experience of weekly Property indices in Belarus." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. From the beginning of 1999 we lead monitoring of the apartment market of capital city of Minsk, which is the most formed real estate market in Belarus, and thereby can emerge as an indicator of development of market of country as a whole (Trifonov 2000). As the results of that work from september 2000 the apartment index of the BSV, the quality index of supply, the quality index of demand and the factor of market structure are produced weekly. Apartment index of the BSV occupies one of the lock-and-key positions in the study. He represents an average price in USD of 1 square metre of tolal area of supplied apartments.
Jaffe, Austin J., and Lynn M. Fisher. "Explaining economic growth in Eastern Europe." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. One of the important considerations for the transition economies of Eastern Europe is the prospect for long-term economic growth. The preliminary data since the beginning of the transition period indicates a wide-range of outcomes across the two dozen or so reforming economies. Recent developments in growth theory suggest that differential growth rates are not satisfactorily explained by technology but likely reflect national resources, institutional factors, and the climate for growth and development in each country. Thus, it is likely that country-specific conditions such as the states of property rights, economic freedom, and other social and culture influences will help explain growth rate differences. This study is a preliminary empirical attempt to measure the impact of these factors in several transition countries in Eastern Europe. Clearly, there does not exist a sufficient time series of data for many years. However, the natural experiment of having closely related and similarly influenced countries which underwent (or more likely, continue to undergo) political, economic, and social transformations at about the same time is probably unprecedented. This paper hopes to provide some preliminary explanations of varying growth rates for transition countries.
del Rio, Baldomero Segura Gar, and Fco. Javier Rib Sanchis. "Farmland Portfolio Management and application to Spanish Farmland." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In the present paper an application of Spanish farmland portfolio management is been carried out. The farmland returns are composed of two effects, the land appreciation effect and the cash-flow effect. The study is performed for crops and regions. The most certain of financial concepts is that risk and return are related. Systematic differences in returns must relate to differences in risk. The returns and risk for every crop and region have been calculated. From Sharpe's model, the Beta index has been estimated for every crop and region and the efficient Spanish farm land portfolio has been built.
Kaleva, Hanna, and Kaisa Leiwo. "Finnish Real Estate professionals- Technical experts or composite athletes?" In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In Finland, certification of real estate executives began in 1999. Until February 2001, 47 real estate professionals have been certified. These managers largely have their background in construction or engineering: 40 % of them are graduate engineers and 11 % construction engineers. (Luoma 2000) This is mainly due to the traditions of Finnish real estate education being largely based on the study of construction technology, house-building and surveying. Economic and financial aspects have traditionally received minor attention. (Hedvall ñ Leiwo 2000). One of the aims of the certification of Finnish real estate executives is to enhance the versatility of competencies required in the futureís business environment: property professionals have to be experts on real estate as well as on business management and financial issues. These requirements and expectations provide a great challenge for both real estate professionals themselves and also for the education institutes. In this paper, the current qualities and competencies of Finnish real estate managers as well as competencies required in the future are analysed. What are the strengths and challenges of real estate managers? What kind of qualities is required of them in the future? What kind of education and training should be provided (or demanded) to enhance the real estate management in Finland? Comparisons are made with international experiences, where possible. The paper is based on the analysis of the data of 47 certified real estate managers as well as on theme interviews of 20 of them. A literature study will provide both international and basic theoretical information on the matter.
Sotelo, Ramon. "Foundations of Home Ownership Policy - The Implementation of the Financing of Use as an Independent Finance Level." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper identifies a financial level within the usage of a property. While traditional property finance is understood as the refinance of property income there is a fist financial level in the financing of the usage, being the renting of a property the dept financing and the ownership of a used property the equity financing of the usage. Applying theory of finance to the financing of the usage provides a variety of knowledge on housing markets as well as housing and especially home-ownership policy.
Siniak, Nikolai. "Fuzzy numbers for the assessment of real estate market and property valuation." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The paper is focused on the use of fuzzy numbers in some different spheres ñ real estate researches, investments and valuation. The real estate market is not perfect and it is subject of many external influences, such as: an economic situation in the country, seasonal activity, availability of financial assets. Therefore it doesnít have precise logic connections and definitions. That is why it is necessary to use fuzzy numbers when we research a real estate market. The process of estimation of real estate investments of any country considerably becomes simpler. In paper is analyzed the real estate market of Minsk ñ the capital of Belarus. It was used fuzzy numbers. At the second part of paper it will be shown that fuzzy numbers allows us to get model for the property valuation.
M Almirall, Pilar García, and Josep Roca Cladera. "Geographical information system techniques in the analysis of the formation of office property values in Barcelona." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper seeks to bring forward a pilot study to permit the establishment of criteria, guidelines, techniques and procedures, contributing towards building systems of analysis and evaluation of office properties, with the support of Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The formation of urban rents (land values) of the city is bound to the competition between certain uses and activities to be located in exceptional positions along main central axes. Since the studies of Hurd (1903), father of the modern urban economy (urban land economics) until the present, urban values present a direct correlation between the concentration of certain uses and activities and their internalisation in the market value. It is necessary to have an overall appreciation of the totality of the determining urban aspects of the main service axes and of their implicit values, as environmental variables of the urban structure which are integrated in the urban values. The study has been of considerable value in the elaboration of the urban cadastral values, differentiated for Barcelonaís office uses. It has incorporated a relevant volume of information on the economic activity, cadastral data base, types of office buildings, market data, the attractiveness of each area, amongst other determining factors in the formation of values. Combining the integrated use of spatial analysis techniques (GIS), with conventional multidimensional statistical analysis techniques used for the massive valuation, a number of prime axes can be determined, in which the urban values indicate an exceptionally high level, well above those for residential uses of Barcelona.
Barot, Bharat, and Petter Lundvik. "Growth Accounting and the Business Cycle for the Private Business Sectors of the Swedish Economy (1963 - 1999)." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. "This paper is concerned with the nature of economic growth in the nine sectors of private business in the Swedish economy for the sample period 1963-1999. The results of the study indicate that there is substantial heterogeneity (across both sectors and time) in rates of value-added, hours worked, labour productivity and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) during the sample period. The decline in value-added in the private business sector, when measured with constant prices during the sample period is associated with significant changes in the relative size of individual sectors. The growth accounting exercise for six different sub periods reveals a decline in TFP after (1960-1969) i.e. the end of the postwar ""golden era"" due to two oil shocks from 1973-1979. In the 1980s TFP accelerated but only to slowdown again at the beginning of the 1990s. After the first half of 1990s, TFP increased for the manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, banking, goods and service producing sectors and the private business sector. While TFP has accelerated during the second half of the 1990s due to the recovery from the recession of the early 1990s, it is unclear to what extent this change is primarily cyclical or structural. Separating cycle from trend is always difficult in the midst of an expansion, and it is particularly challenging now because the current expansion is tending to conform to cyclical norms. For the sake of comparison with the real business cycle literature we use the standard practice of taking logs and Hodrick-Prescott filtering the data. Cross correlations of detrended output, hours, investment and TFP at different leads and lags indicate that TFP leads investment, and hours worked and TFP and GDP for all the sectors is procyclical. Hence the decomposition of TFP into trend and cyclical component gives reasonable results. Chow tests with a dynamic specification of TFP growth rates for the private business sectors of the economy indicates structural breaks for agriculture and construction in 1973, 1980, 1986 1987, and 1988 for electricity and construction in 1992, and for the banking real estate and other businesses, manufacturing, and community services in 1993. Granger causality tests indicate that TFP in the banking and real estate sector Granger causes TFP in the agriculture, manufacturing, and transport sectors. Simple cross correlations indicate that TFP, hours worked and the share going to capital are procyclical while capital stocks and the share going to labour are countercyclical."
Miettilä, Asko. "Hedonic Model for Finnish Housing Rents and a comparative analysis for two towns." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In the analysis I rely on the assumptions made by Rosen (1974) and use the theory of hedonic price function on Finnish rental housing markets [FRM] to estimate hedonic prices for its characteristics. The primary objective in this paper is to study the differences in the rental price formation between the two sub-markets (Free and ARAVA market). The second objective is to estimate the inference between age of the dwelling units and rents. Thirdly preliminary models about Finnish rental total data in 1999 are being estimated. The estimation was carried out by OLS. The results of the total Finnish rental market suggest that the size of the building, the number of inhabitants and the form of finance are the most important explanatory factors in rent formation. Also the technical amenities of the dwellings (available for the analysis) get significant coefficients. The most interesting results also suggest that the explanation power of the age of the building could be compensated by the technical features of the flat and the building ñ such as building material, sauna, balcony, air conditioning, elevator and heating system. The conclusion is that age is not necessarily, as such, relevant, but the different characteristics of the buildings of different age. If this would be true in general the results could be used in planning and investment decisions.
Friggit, Jacques. "Home prices in Paris: 1200-2000 and beyond." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. From the notaries' and tax department's databases, using a repeat sales method, one can reconstitute in Paris a yearly home price index back to 1840, and an index by decade back to 1750. Farther back in the past, home price variations can be roughly reconstituted back to the 13th century. This home price index can then be put into its social and political context (revolutions, wars), compared to home prices in the rest of France and in other countries, to macroeconomic aggregates (consumer's price index, GDP per household, disposable income per household) and to financial aggregates ( stock, bond and gold prices, foreign exchange rates). Some long term regularities appear, of which some can be projected into the future.
de Carvalho, Joaquim Montezuma, and Luis Guilherme Bernardes. "House Prices and Consumption Loss Aversion." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper incorporates loss aversion, a psychological phenomenon widely observed in consumersí behavior, in the traditional stock-flow models of housing price determination. According to the behavioral literature, there is a fundamental asymmetry in individualsí consumption patterns. When there is sufficient income uncertainty, people resist lowering consumption in response to bad news about future income much more than they avoid increasing consumption in response to good news. Several authors have confirmed this behavior in what respects the consumption of everyday goods æ utilities, food, supermarket shopping, etc. These studies conclude that individuals display an excessive aversion to lowering consumption below a reference-level, usually an average of the recent consumption patterns. How does this behavior affect house prices? Considering that buying a house is not an everyday decision, consumption loss aversion suggests that a decrease in real income will cause a more than proportional drop in individualsí demand for houses, due to their unwillingness to sacrifice the usual consumption patterns of those everyday goods. We use a simple reference dependent model to formalize this idea. We argue that loss aversion implies that the elasticity of house prices to changes in income should be much higher when income falls below a reference-level than when it surpasses that level. We test this hypothesis using quarterly data for the Lisbon housing market from 1987 to 1996. This data has the significant advantage that it allows us to test the existence of a loss aversion effect while clearly isolating the contributions of the traditionally relevant variables, given the variety of values that they assume. In fact, during this period, besides three well-defined income cycles, Lisbon was an expanding market without any significant space constraints, interest rates ranged from a very high 19% to a much lower 11%, and no significant external shocks occurred. Also, the period is small enough so not to be affected by relevant demographic changes, with the exception of a slight decrease in family size that the model captures. Our empirical estimates produce highly robust results that are consistent with the modelís theoretical predictions. Three mains facts are derived: There is a slow adjustment of prices. In line with Wheaton and DiPasqualeís (1990) findings, we report a quarterly speed of adjustment to market conditions close to 30 to 40% of their long-run equilibrium value. / Not surprisingly, given this slow price adjustment and the non-efficient characteristics of the housing market, house price movements are strongly determined by changes in the cost of ownership, what we can call the speculation motive. / Using the traditional formulation, we find a significant relationship between income levels and house prices. However, this result does not hold when we split the sample based on income cycles. In fact, increases in real income show a small and non-significant impact on house prices once other factors are taken into account. The same is not true when there is a decrease in income. We find that a 1% drop in real income causes house prices to lower by about 0.75%. // This asymmetry has some interesting implications in terms of house price movements. In particular, it is a possible additional explanation for the pronounced cyclical behavior of prices and for the bubbles and busts in the housing market. For example, after a recession, once income levels start to recover, the negative income effect abruptly disappears allowing house prices to significantly go up. This sudden increase in prices will jump-start the speculation motive, which then takes over in a disproportionate manner (thus the bubble) until gradually losing strength (the price elasticity of the cost-of-ownership variable is much lower than one). Inversely, when real income starts to fall, the negative income effect will kick in. This will lower house prices disproportionately, providing additional strength to the downward speculation movement. We confirm these conclusions simulating the consequences of exogenous and endogenous shocks to the housing market, based on our empirical results. These simulations illustrate the extreme volatility to which house prices are subject due to this asymmetry, even when we ignore the usual lag with which stock supplies respond to changes in prices.
Thang, Doreen Chze- Lin, and Ong Seow Eng. "Household upward Mobility to Private housing in Singapore." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. While housing shortage and overcrowding are acute problems faced by many Asian countries, such issues are concerns of the past for Singapore with the completion of more than 800,000 public housing units for some 86% of the population by the Housing Development Board (HDB) since its establishment in 1960. From problems of housing shortages in the 1960s to mid 1970s, the issue had changed to one of acquiring home ownership in the 1970s and 1980s. Fuelled by rapidly increasing income levels of the population and the commitment of the government in encouraging home ownership, Singapore currently has one of the highest home ownership rates in comparison with several countries. About 90% of public housing dwellers now own the flat they live in. With basic housing needs met and the population becoming more affluent, the current focus has switched from home ownership to home upgrading in the 1990s. This is very much distinct from the Western world where the concern is primarily the household decision to rent versus owning. The desire to upgrade to private property with the concomitant quality living with better facilities has become the Singapore dream. The typical path towards ownership of private property is to first purchase a HDB public housing flat, then upgrade to private property subsequently. Based on a primary micro-data set of about 3,800 households, this paper examined rigorously the impact of household-specific, financial, property-specific and location factors on the probability of upgrading from public to private property by appealing to the discrete probit choice model. The evidence clearly shows that Chinese households in professional/executive/managerial jobs, with higher income and school-going children are more likely to upgrade. The probability to upgrade is also positively correlated with the affinity to move. In addition, after controlling for household income, owners of smaller HDB room types (such as the 3-room and 4-room) have a surprisingly greater propensity to upgrade, when compared to those from the 5-room flats. Relative to households staying in the North, those living in the West, North-East and East regions are more inclined to upgrade. On the other hand, centrally-located households with older heads and living in larger flats like the executive flats exhibit greater inertia to upgrade.
Fernández, Ismael, and Paloma Taltavull de La Paz. "Housing and Business Cycle." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Housing investment is one of the component with more volatility inside the business cycle. This is a relationship showed but not demonstrated in Spanish economy. This paper try to deep in this way finding an econometric link explaining how housing construction is connected with the economic evolution in Spain as well as the lags existing between them. We use cointegration technique and error correction model to find time lags and give some economics explanations that show how Spanish housing market works and clear.
de La Paz, Paloma Taltavull. "Housing and Consumption in Spain." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The impact of macroeconomics variables on housing market is largely analysed in the literature. The usual way where changes on economic variables are transmitted to housing market is through demand factors, affecting to, for instance, the level of household waged-income or to house building investorís expectations. Changes on economic conditions could also affect through supply-side but usually later than impact on demand-side factors occurs. Macroeconomics shocks on housing markets are not similar to those affecting other goods and they are different depending on geographic situation and market characteristics. The aim of this paper is to contrast if a relationship between changes on general economic conditions, showed as changes on prices or interest rates, and housing behaviour exists and how it works addressing housing absorption. It is say, how they impact on demand-side housing factors that clean the market. To do so, we extract cycle on housing absorption and compare it to business cycle using time series techniques to demonstrate their relationship. We concentrate this analyse in Spanish market during a period from 1980 to 1999. Results give evidence about housing absorption use to be concentrated in some short periodsgenerating boom and recession cycles on housing that are, in some of them, independent from business one.
Quigley, John. "Housing Market Gains and Consumer Spending." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. "Worries about ""irrational exuberance"" in stock prices have renewed interest in the linkage between measures of wealth and consumer spending. In particular, unrealized capital gains in the stock market and also in the housing market may have substantially affected consumer spending, amplifying the recent expansion and perhaps increasing the danger of recession. The paper combines an analysis of U.S. states with one focussing on the international experience during the past three decades. It estimates the effect of housing wealth and stock market inflation of asset prices upon consumer spending for US states and for EU countries. We estimate simple models of consumption behavior adding measures of the unrealized capital gains in housing. The results for both the U.S. and for Europe indicate a strong relationship between capital gains in housing and consumer spending. If anything, the results are stronger for housing wealth than for stock market wealth."
Schmoll, Fritz. "Housing Marketing in Satiated Markets: The Case of Eastern Germany." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Until lately strategic marketing was unknown among housing companies in Germany. Until 1990, the housing market in the Federal Republic was characterised by long phases of shortage, interrupted only by short and spatially limited phases of surplus: almost every empty house could be sold or let. In the GDR housing shortage was prevalent, and the allocation of houses was organised by the authority: marketing was obsolete. After the unification of both German states in 1990, the government strongly promoted and subsidised housing production and renewal. At the same time, the transformation of the industry led to a massive reduction of employment, to migration out of the former GDR, and to high structural unemployment in its industrialised centres. The consequences have been structural vacancies of houses in the respective regions. Housing companies owned by the communities and housing co-operatives founded in the GDR which manage a large stock of housing produced in the GDR are affected in the first place. On behalf of the Federal Government a committee of experts carried out a rather extensive study on problems and possible solutions of structural housing vacancies. The committee suggests, that the state should give subsidies for the destruction of superfluous residential buildings and to tenets who are willing to buy an existing home or flat. The aim is both to reduce housing supply and to direct the means and initiative of owner-occupiers into the improvement of the existing housing stock. The call for governmental subsidies came from the respective housing companies and co-operatives. As far as data and prognoses referring to demography, employment, and purchasing power are reliable, a relatively constant and stable demand in the lower market segments can be expected. But so far the housing companies and co-operatives have not tried to segment their housing supply along the lines of the structure of demand. Moreover, there have been no attempts to trade-mark houses or flats, specialised according to the requirements of the lower market segment, as we know it from other consumer goods. In the opinion of the author, the development of a ìlow-budget-housing-grandî should be a chance for housing companies and co-operatives in regions of economic transformation and structural unemployment, stabilise their market position. The characteristics, and the emotional connotations of such a brand should become objects of market research. In the conference paper propositions will be made regarding the extent to which practices and experiences of consumer goods marketing can be applied to housing marketing.
López-García, Miguel-Angel. "Housing Prices, Residential Capital and Tax Policy in Spain: A Dynamic Simulation Model." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper deals with some allocative effects in the Spanish owner-ocuppied housing market that may result from different tax policies, particularly those related to the personal income tax. The framework is a computational asset-market model of housing, and the experiments to be performed range from the recent (1998) reform of individual income taxation in Spain to the introduction of investment versus savings incentives designed to increase the amount of housing stock/services. The questions to be addressed concern the long-run (i.e., steady-state) effects on the real price of housing asset and the stock of residential capital as well as the dynamic paths according to whether the economic agents have rational expectations (i.e., perfect foresight) or static expectations.
Escot, Lorenzo, and Miguel-Angel Galindo. "Housing Sector Effects on Economic Growth." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Economists have tried to determine the factors that affect economic growth process. Neoclassical growth models state that the policy maker has not opportunity to design policies that improve economic growth. But modern theories state the opposite. In that sense, fiscal policy, innovation processes, human capital improvement..., are some elements that improve growth. In that way, the housing sector would play a relevant play in the economic growth process, direct and indirectly. The main goal of this paper is to study this role of the housing sector taking into account the Spanish case.
Andrew, Mark. "Housing Tenure in Britain: Modelling the Change in the Route to Owner Occupation." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Contrary to the trend in the 1980s when individuals began to purchase their own homes at an ever earlier age, Britain in the 1990s experienced a sharp fall in household formation rates among the young and in home ownership rates among the 20-44 age group. Part of this decline may be explained by the economic recession and part of it by the change in perceptions about the riskiness of housing as an investment. However, the continuation of relatively lower household formation and home ownership rates among the young after economic recovery seems to support another proposition- a fundamental change in their behaviour in the route adopted toward purchasing a home. We argue that this change is primarily brought about by structural change in the labour market and socio-demographic trends. Relative to older age groups, younger cohorts are experiencing lower earnings growth and greater employment instability. These effects are further compounded by their desire to delay marriage and remain single or to cohabit for longer periods, as this not only reduces the size of their potential (joint) incomes but also makes them vulnerable to sudden changes in household composition and/or in their fortunes in the labour market. In addition, the skills upgrading in the labour market implies that if the young want to secure higher permanent incomes, they have to be more mobile across jobs and locations than in the past. Owner occupation has therefore become less affordable, more risky, and less suitable as a housing tenure for the young at the early stages of their life-cycle.
Schulte, Karl-Werner. "Impact of the Corporate Real Estate on Shareholder Value." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The paper - based on a study which has been carried out by ARTHUR ANDERSEN and the EUROPEAN BUSINESS SCHOOL ñ demonstrates that the shareholder value concept is a relevant tool for strategic and operative management of corporate groups and companies in the real estate industry. This applies particularly to property divisions of corporate groups as they are all too frequently confronted with the same non-specific minimum return requirements that are expected of other areas of business as well. In this way, value-enhancing strategic decisions in the real estate sector can be made with regard to the return/risk ratio prevalent in this sector. However, the theoretically and practically predominating methods cannot be adopted for the real estate sector without first being modified. In order to adapt the shareholder value models to suit property companies or divisions, the following parts of the calculation must be modified: Determination of cash flows; Consideration of taxes; Determination of the detailed projection period; Calculation of the residual value; Attribution to debt and equity; Computation of the cost of capital. // When computing the cost of equity as a part of the cost of capital using the ìCapital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)î, particular attention is paid to calculating beta factors. Beta factors represent the individual risk of an investment. Our empirical investigation of the beta factors of property companies in Germany, the USA, the U.K. and a number of other European countries yield values below 1. Beta factors of less than 1 mean that the individual risk of an investment in property companies is lower than that of an investment in a (hypothetical) portfolio encompassing the stock market as a whole. Looking at the minimum return requirements in the property divisions of corporate groups, these empirical findings indicate that the minimum return requirements for real estate must be set below those of other business areas. Here, we advice setting differentiated hurdle rates. The range of shareholder value instruments put together in this study allows the value-enhancing potential of various corporate and business area strategies in the real estate sector to be pinpointed.
Kaklauskas, Arturas, E.K. Zavadskas, and V. Trinkunas. "Increase of Efficiency of Property E-Commerce systems applying multiple criteria decisions support systems." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Many systems of electronic commerce are processing and submitting just the economic information for decisions, and applying economic models as well. However the alternatives under consideration have to be evaluate not only in economic position, but taking into consideration the qualitative, technical and other characteristics too. For example, the analysis of property is being usually performed taking into account economic, quality (architectural, aesthetic, comfortability), infrastructural, technical, legal, technological, social and other factors. Therefore, efficiency of e-commerce may be increased applying the multiple criteria decision support systems. This article is indented to provide how application of multiple criteria decision support system developed by authors could increase the efficiency of e-commerce of property. The suggested system are better compared with other online systems, because the intelligent agents here are comparing a number of alternatives different parameters with each other. The article also includes a short description of the interested parties that could apply suggested systems in their activities and capabilities of systems. Presentation of information in commercial property, dwellings, farmer's homestead estates and other types of property Web pages may be in conceptual (digital, textual, graphical, photographical, video) and quantitative forms. Thus, quantitative information presentation involves criteria systems and subsystems, units of measurement, values and initial significances fully defining the variants provided. Quantitative information of property is submitted in a form of grouped decision making matrix, where the columns mean n property under valuation, and rows include quantitative information. Conceptual information means a conceptual description of the property, the criteria and ways of determining their values and significances, etc. Conceptual information is needed to make more complete and accurate valuation of the property considered. In this way, system enables the decision maker to get various conceptual and quantitative information on property from a database and a model-base allowing him to analyze the above factors and make an efficient solution.
Jiménez, Luis Sastre. "Ingresos por turismo e inversiÛn extranjera en inmuebles: un modelo simultaneo." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar los determinantes de los ingresos por turismo y la inversiÛn extranjera en inmuebles residenciales, en EspaÒa, durante el periodo 67-98. En el trabajo se propone un modelo, simultaneo biecuacional, cuya especificaciÛn pone de manifiesto la simultaneidad e interdependencia entre los ingresos por turismo y los flujos de inversiÛn extranjera en inmuebles residenciales. Los resultados obtenidos, contrastan con los an·lisis tradicionales para la demanda internacional de turismo, en EspaÒa, mejorando su capacidad explicativa. La estimaciÛn simultanea no lineal de los coeficientes, las tÈcnicas de cointegraciÛn y una extensa baterÌa de tests de especificaciÛn del modelo, son los instrumentos economÈtricos utilizados.
Christudason, Alice. "Innovative real estate legislation to husband Singaporeís scarce natural resource." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Government intervention has however, succeeded to a large extent in managing this seemingly intractable problem by putting into place an array of legislative measures. These are underpinned by a system of land administration and policy based on the English doctrine of tenures and estates in land which Singapore inherited as a result of colonisation in the early 19th century. The range of measures includes the leasehold being the dominant method of landholding, wide powers of compulsory land acquisition, the implementation of a public housing system for more than 87% of the nationís population, the restriction on foreign ownership of residential property and planning and conservation legislation. In addition, there has recently been passed, highly controversial legislation affecting strata-title property ownership in Singapore which may call for a re-definition of the term `freeholdí tenure. This paper examines how the Government has grappled with this problem of land scarcity; in particular, it considers how innovative legislation, which has the underlying objective of allocating judiciously this scarce resource has been devised to regulate the real estate sector and optimise land use in Singapore.
Zhu, Jieming. "Institutional Change and Uncertainty in the formation of a Property Market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Economic change since 1978 toward a market-oriented economy has brought Chinaís urban development into a new era along with profound organisational transformation and institutional change. The gradualist nature of the economic change has cast intriguing impact on the course of institutional change. New organisations, emerging from the gradual economic change, take a leading role in shaping new institutions for the new ìgameî. Institutional uncertainty is consequently derived from an explicit absence of the state as a third-party rule-enforcement, and the ambiguity between the outgoing planning system and incoming marketisation. An emerging urban property market is characterised by a new institution of ambiguous property rights and related institutional uncertainty.
Fernández-Otheo, Carlos Manuel. "InternacionalizaciÛn del sector de la ConstrucciÛn en EspaÒa." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. El sector de la construcciÛn ocupa, por lo general, un espacio reducido en el conjunto de la inversiÛn directa extranjera de los paÌses desarrollados. Quiz· por ese mismo hecho los investigadores apenas le han dedicado atenciÛn, en comparaciÛn con las manufacturas y algunos otros servicios. Tan ˙til como observar el comportamiento inversor de otros sectores de actividad resulta, sin embargo, fijarse en la composiciÛn y localizaciÛn espacial de sus flujos, o en las vÌas de entrada que se adoptan para acceder a los distintos mercados (nueva creaciÛn de empresas, adquisiciÛn de activos ya existentes...). Como sucede al contemplar otras actividades productivas, el an·lisis del sector construcciÛn, de sus flujos de entrada y de salida, refuerza nuestra comprensiÛn del nivel de desarrollo del paÌs y de su nivel de internacionalizaciÛn, asÌ como de los cambios que en Èste se hayan producido a lo largo del tiempo; y tambiÈn permite intuir las fortalezas o debilidades competitivas y comparativas de las empresas y de los paÌses. (TÈngase en cuenta, adem·s, que la actividad constructora, en la esfera internacional, se extiende, a veces obligadamente, a otros campos anexos, como la actividad inmobiliaria o el renting; por no citar tambiÈn aquellas otras en las que las empresas del sector act˙an como contratista principal en la realizaciÛn de plantas ìllave en manoî y obras de ingenierÌa civil, lo que refuerza la importancia de su estudio). En suma, el objeto de este estudio es presentar, en primer lugar, con datos del Ministerio de EconomÌa y Hacienda, el perfil exterior (flujos de entradas y salidas de capital) del sector de la construcciÛn en EspaÒa a lo largo de los aÒos 1988-1997, y en segundo lugar, interpretar dicho perfil a la luz de la teorÌa disponible (b·sicamente la aportaciÛn ìeclÈcticaî de Dunning) y del hecho trascendental que recorre todo el periodo de an·lisis, la integraciÛn espaÒola y los avances en la integraciÛn comunitaria.
Rodríguez, Ana Ramón. "International Modal choice determinants in the Spanish Hotel Sector." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Hotel industry is a management intensive industry as well as a distinct real estate asset class. During the 80ís, a reduced number of hotel groups led the internationalization of the Spanish tourism industry. In the decade of the 90ís, the process of internationalization wraps to a growing and dynamic volume of hotel chains, acquiring an exponential growth. Spanish hotel firms have nearly one hundred thousand rooms outside their home nations in three hundred and forty six thousand properties at the end of 1999. This growth has been hurried by the imminent saturation of the national land, the spectacular generation of benefits experienced by the tourist industry and the globalization of the industry by the developing of international alliances between professionals and investors. Despite the growing ownership interest by direct equity investors in hotel real estate, the international expansion of hotel chains does not always imply the property of real estate assets. Interfirms collaborations are common in this new management landscape and control is only loosely correlated with ownership (Contractor & Kundu, 1998). What determines the optimum choice of organizational mode? Which factors lead Spanish hotel operators to invest in international real estate hotel assets? The present paper tests if accepting a syncretic approach as a conceptual framework (Contractor & Kundu, 1998), concepts derived from cost-transaction theory (Anderson & Gatignon, 1986; Buckley & Casson, 1998), agency theory (Shane, 1996) and organizational capabilities perspective (Teece, 1987; Winter, 1987), are able to explain the modes of entry of the Spanish hotel industry to foreign markets (Figure 1). Within this aim a model ordinal Logit analysis, technique used in numerous previous studies related to the modal choice of entry in foreign environments (Gatignon & Anderson, 1988; Kogut & Singh 1988; Trepstra & Yu, 1988; Erramilli, 1991; Fladmoe-Linquist, 1995; Contractor & Kundu, 1998), is considered. The data sustaining this study come from a field work carried out during the year 1999, consistent basically in interviews in depth with the international managers of the Spanish hotel chains with presence in more than one country and then, filling in a questionnaire. This study covers 100% of franchised properties, 90,8% of total management contracts outside Spain, 85,7% of joint-venture properties and 98,5% of fully owned properties. The choice of entry mode is shown to be determined by both country or environmental variables as well as firm-specific variables. The results show that wholly property investment is more common in low political, economic and financial risk countries, with high GDP per capita. Cultural similarities with the home country also influence the investment decision. The mechanism whereby each firm may exercise control over the foreign business determines as well the kind of investment chosen. The results of the study allow us to confirm the applicability of the syncretic theory to the modality of entry of the Spanish hotel industry to foreign destinations. On the other hand our conclusions show that the main differences on entry mode choice between the Spanish hotel firms and the international hotel industry, make reference to dissimilarities on the stage of internationalization and the vacacional orientation of the Spanish hotel firm.
Gallimore, Paul. "Investor sentiment in real estate markets." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Property decision-making is typically characterised as a structured, rational process, using fundamental data and leading to optimal decision making. To augment, or substitute for deficiencies in, such data, property investors may turn to perceptions of investor or market sentiment. While reliance on sentiment in the wider financial markets is generally regarded as leading to mis-pricing, its use in property markets, characterized by poorer information quality, may not necessarily reflect sub-optimal behaviour. This conclusion is suggested by Gallimore and Gray (2001), who surveyed UK property investment decision-makers. This survey also found that, despite its neglect in formal explanations of property market functioning, investor sentiment is regarded as an important factor in property investment decision-making, attaining status equivalent to that of fundamental data. The paper develops these findings. It explores their relevance to the wider literature on the functioning of real estate markets; examines the argument for incorporating sentiment into explanations of the way these markets move over time; and addresses the problems in empirically pursuing these questions.
Arruñada, Benito. "Is there a Role for Title Insurance in Markets with Land Registration?" In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This work first describes the structure of the main institutional arrangements devised for reducing transaction costs related to the risk of eviction when selling land or using it as collateralóprivate contracting, recording of documents and registration of rights. It then analyses the rationale for the use of title insurance in the USA, and the circumstance under which there might arise a demand for this kind of insurance in markets with land registration, as are those in Europe.
Des Rosiers, Francois, Marius Thériault, Paul-Y Villeneuve, and Yan Kestens. "Isolating Spatial from A-spatial Components of Housing Attributes Using Kriging Techniques." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The current piece of research is an attempt to isolate spatial from a-spatial components of housing attributes, using kriging techniques. While hedonic models have long proved their usefulness as an analytical device, previous research has shown that substantial portion of price variability remains unexplained (Anselin and Can 1986; Dubin and Sung 1987; Can 1993; Dubin 1998). The great deal of neighbourhood factors needed to adequately account for submarket specifics (Adair, Berry and McGreal 1996 & 1998) raises methodological issues linked to the presence of excessive multicollinearity between model attributes, as well as to structural heteroskedasticity and spatial autocorrelation among residuals; all of these are detrimental to the stability of regression coefficients (Dubin 1988; Anselin and Rey 1991; Can and Megbolugbe 1997; Basu and Thibodeau 1998; Pace, Barry and Sirmans 1998; Des Rosiers and ThÈriault 1999). Among the issues that need be addressed, spatial dependence†-†a current feature of property markets†- deserves substantial research efforts. Indeed, several situations involve the presence of spatial autocorrelation, thereby violating†the basic assumptions underlying hedonic models. For instance, while liveable area will partly mirror size features that are exclusive to a given piece of property, it also reflects neighbourhood characteristics which are common to all houses in the same market segment. Consequently, implicit prices of housing attributes may prove to be both biased and unstable (Can 1990 & 1993, Dubin 1998). In this paper, kriging techniques are used to address the problem. Once spatial dependence has been identified for each housing descriptor, relevant variables are then split into their spatial and a-spatial components; this results in two sets of unbiased coefficients being calibrated. Model residuals are also processed via kriging. In so doing, space-related influences on prices can be isolated for each attribute and their consistency assessed over space and time as well Using the principal component method (PCA) with a Varimax rotation, some 49 initial variables are thus being reduced to only six significant factors ñ four neighbourhood and two access principal components ñ which are in turn integrated in the hedonic equation as complex independent variables. Findings clearly suggest that factor analysis is highly efficient at sorting out access and neighbourhood dimensions. In particular, the educational profile of local residents as well as access to regional and local services emerge as powerful price determinants.
Molina, Manuel G. Alcazar. "La valoraciÛn r˙stica en el catastro inmobiliario espaÒol." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Se expone brevemente la situaciÛn actual de la valoraciÛn catastral inmobiliaria r˙stica en EspaÒa: antecedentes, situaciÛn actual y perspectivas de futuro; Interrelacion·ndola con uno de los impuestos que emplean el valor de los bienes inmuebles de naturaleza r˙stica como referencia para estimar su base imponible: El impuesto de bienes inmuebles.
Tzu-Chin, Lin. "Land Transfers and Land Development in the Context of Land Reallocation." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Land reallocation is a scheme through which fragmented land parcels are reallocated so that the plots become suitable for immediate development in terms of size and shape. This scheme is widely employed in countries where small and irregular land parcels are commonplace, notably in Taiwan and Japan. Even though land reallocation is argued to have increased the rate of land development, its relationship to participantsí (land owners and developers) strategies is not clear. The participantsí strategies in respect of selling and buying land are, however, to a great extent associated with the outcomes of the scheme. The participantsí selling-and-buying strategies are examined by looking into the timing and pattern of land transfers and land development. Questions as follows are posed. At what stages of land reallocation did land transfers occur? When did the activities of land development happen? The changing nature of legal rights over plots in the course of land reallocation is expected to significantly influence the timing and pattern of land transfers. In addition, the performance of real property market at the time not only affects land transfers but also land development. Questions as to the strategies are answered using a case study of land reallocation project on the outskirts of Tainan City, Taiwan. The project covered a relatively large area consisting of more than 1000 reallocated plots and was completed 15 years ago. This project provides an opportunity for looking into land transfers and land development in a time context. Data, including the identities of buyer(s) and seller(s) of land, date of land transfers and date of land development, obtained from the local government is carefully examined. The strategies of land owners and land developers are revealed based on the analysis of the data set.
Tomson, Aivar. "Land Valuation for Taxation: Theory and Practice in Countries under Transition- Estonian and Latvian Cases." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. My presentation is part of my dissertation supported by Nordic Council and Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. As my research is not complete yet, there are a lot of questions without any answer. I try to concentrate my presentation to the divergence between valuation theory and practice in cases of transitional countries using mass appraisal. I have my own experience from Latvia (1999) and Estonia (1993; 1996; 2001) and it helps me to find some common lines for those countries, which can be similar for some other transitional economies. The property tax is an important fiscal device for countries in transition, and the successful application of mass appraisal is critical to its success. Valuation theory is part of it but it seems that administrative and legal issues are sometimes even more important. As my research is part of dissertation it can be useful to participate in Doctoral Session.
Rowland, Patrick. "Lease length and the care of properties." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper explores the relationship between lease length and the allocation of responsibilities for leased premises. Longer leases would be expected to give tenants more control over their premises than short leases. This paper explains the reasons for this, describes observed variations in lease structures in several markets and investigates whether there might be threshold lease lengths, above which major responsibilities are or should be shifted to the tenants. Typical lease lengths for non-residential properties are changing in some European countries, either as a result of legislation or market forces. Therefore, it is timely to consider whether the liabilities under these lease are likely to be or should be allocated differently in future. It is generally accepted that tenants do not have the same incentive as owner-occupiers to care for their buildings. Many writers have recognised that leased premises are likely to be neglected because lease covenants are only enforceable at significant cost. Less attention has been given to the potential neglect by landlords who have granted long lea161es or to the potential overspending by landlords recovering costs by way of service charges. Further, most of the literature is not explicit as to how the length of leases influences both the likelihood of neglect and the lease covenants that might encourage proper care of the premises. This paper summarises and uses a mathematical model of the costs of leasing in order to compare different ways of allocating duties. The model shows, not surprisingly, that the length of the lease is a major determinant of which party should look after the property. However, there appear to be two other factors ñ economies of scale and willingness to carry risks - that also affect the allocation of responsibilities and are largely independent of the length of the lease. International comparisons confirm that, where longer leases are used, tenants are usually given more responsibilities for the premises. Because convincing empirical tests of the relationship between lease length and the allocation of responsibilities are largely impractical, the effects of changing length on the costs of leasing on several common bases are simulated. The simulations, based on the mathematical model, estimate the lease length at which landlords and tenants may benefit from switching responsibilities for the property under a range of different scenarios.
Jackson, Rosemary M.. "Legislation and Valuation Methodology for the Expropriation of Land in Europe." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The aim of this research is to examine and compare the legislation and valuation methodology for the expropriation of land within a number of European countries. The research will identify the legal basis for the expropriation of land for the common good in the selected countries. It will then analyse and contrast the valuation techniques and methodology used by valuers in their respective countries in this area of statutory valuation. The research methodology is to be based on a legal literature search and review, description of country specific appropriate valuation methodology and questioning of professional valuers from the countries on a number of given scenarios.
Havard, Timothy Malcom. "Mapping the commercial valuation process." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. A recent RICS research paper (Baum, Crosby, Gallimore, McAllister and Gray, 2000) has highlighted some of the potential for client influence to affect the independence of commercial valuations. This work compliments a growing body of work that examines the potential areas of bias in the valuation process (Diaz III, 1997, Gallimore and Wolverton, 2000, Havard, 1999). To extend this work there is a need to more fully understand and document the process that produces a commercial valuation. This paper makes a contribution to this understanding and will be of considerable utility to subsequent researchers. The paper presents a flow diagram of the commercial valuation process based upon structured interviews with 40 senior commercial valuers in the UK. It examines issues such as sequencing of tasks, the identity of the personnel undertaking the tasks, points of consultation both inside and outside of the valuation firm and the flow of information throughout the process. The implications of the flow diagram produced are discussed in the context of the research of Baum et al (2000).
Dupuis, Ann, Jennifer Dixon, and Penny Lysnar. "Medium Density Housing: A Local Strategic Response to Urban Sprawl." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Historically New Zealandís urban housing market has been dominated by owner occupied, detached dwellings built on relatively large sites. This form of housing development has however, become highly problematic in Auckland, New Zealandís major city. Over the last few decades Aucklandís population growth, fuelled by both immigration and natural increase, has risen dramatically to more than 1 million people. Housing this population growth has been met largely by outward expansion. The new suburbs thus formed have been generally serviced by motorway construction, with only meagre new public transport services set in place. However, as Aucklandís population grew, and urban sprawl came to be perceived as a major traffic and environmental problem, so too concerns became increasingly evident over environmental sustainability, inadequate or failing infrastructural provision, and the need to provide a wider mix of housing options. In 1998 a regional growth strategy was drafted, advocating regional urban containment, to be matched by urban intensification policies at the local council level. The strategy contains several key elements: the consolidation of the existing metropolitan area (called Auckland but actually made up of four independent cities, Auckland City, North Shore City, Manukau City and Waitakere City) within which 70 percent of new housing construction would take place; location of new housing developments around proposed or already existing town centres and major public transport routes; and a significant increase in multi-unit, medium density housing. The growth strategy envisages that in time between 25-30 percent of Aucklandís population would live in this type of housing. Given that medium density housing is a decidedly new way of living for the vast majority of New Zealanders, and one quite outside the common New Zealand experience, it is not surprising that medium density housing has become a recent hot topic for public debate. This paper reports on case study research into medium density housing and discusses the effectiveness of current local strategies in addressing issues of intensification and sustainability.
Blasco, Ana, José Ángel Rodríguez, and Francisco Guijarro. "Methodology for the Economic Valuation of Buildings of Artistic and Historic Heritage." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Buildings valuation of artistic and historic heritage presents a great number of difficulties due to the peculiarity inherent to the artistic and aesthetic considerations implied. Numerous qualitative and quantitative variables are handled when calcutating values outside the residential buildings market, in a market where transactions are scarce and sporadic and in wich the Spanish Laws concerning National Heritage are involved. This article introduces the use of an analogical method for the valuation of singular buildings, in those cases in wich such market exists. This methodology allows comparing the characteristics of a singular building to those of sample buildings, characteristics such as position, localisation, accesibility, demand, surface, construction type, year of construction, rarity, functionality, social impact, landscape, integration to the landscape, historical events...etc. The method consists on applying the factorial analysis to the initial information by means of the principal componentsí technique to be able to systhetise this information to the maximum. The regression of these components, wich are lineal combinations of the initial variables, is then used for estimating the possible market value of the building.
Chou, Shih Hsiung, and Shih Hung Chih. "Metropolis: Impact Assessment of Flood Risk on Housing Property Market in Taipei." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Excessive development in hillside areas around Taipei Metropolis has increasingly caused the occurrence of floods in last decade. Many researches about hazards indicate that there will be disadvantageous consequences to real estate market when hazardous events happen. And we believe that this is due to the risk aversion tendency when people confront risky situation. This study aims to assess the impact of flood events and public risk perception on housing property market. To measure the short-term price fluctuation in housing property market results from flood events, we compare the trend price predicted from time-series model to market price before and after the event. While to analyze risk perception, we obtain public collective expressed preference about decision under flood risk through attitude scales surveyed to owner-occupiers and tenants residing in Taipei Metropolis. Finally, the impact of public risk perception to property market will be presented through correlation.
Thang, Doreen Chze- Lin, and Ong Seow Eng. "Mobility propensity of Public Housing Residents." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Past intra-urban mobility studies have shown that the decision to seek a new residence is generated by a multiplicity of push and pull factors interacting in a complex manner to influence the ìplace utilityî derived by a household. The household is likely to initiate a move to an alternative site, if the place utility offered is greater than that of its present residence (Wolpert 1965, Brown & Longbrake 1969 & 1970). This research paper examines the overall mobility behaviour of public housing residents. As of 1998, some 86% of the population stay in about 833,814 public housing units completed by the Housing Development Board (HDB) since its establishment in 1960. About 90% of public housing dwellers now own the flat they live in. These households can decide to stay or to move. If the decision is to move, the household could make an intra-HDB move to a larger or smaller HDB flat, or shift from HDB to private housing. Based on a primary micro-data set of about 3,800 households, this paper examines the patterns of residential mobility in terms of their spatial tendency and the choice of the types of property moved to. It also seeks to determine the likelihood that a household would move, given different HDB type, by appealing to the conditional probit choice models. The study revealed interesting results in the mobility behaviour of the HDB households. Upgrading to better housing and home-ownership/investment stand out as the main underlying forces that motivate residential mobility. Households prefer dwelling with close proximity first to shopping facilities, then workplace, good schools and, lastly, relatives. Indeed, future bequest motive scores as a more important reason than even prestige reason for motivating householdsí move to their new residence. This indicates that households have strong bequest motive. In considering factors influencing buying decision of their residence, households place great importance on price, location and unit characteristics. In line with observations of mobility patterns in the West (Simmons 1968, Adams 1969, Clark 1971, Johnston 1972), it is noted that distinct sectoral bias similarly exists in the mobility patterns of the households, as they move within the same region where their previous dwelling is located. Compared to the United States, Singaporeans are relatively less mobile. On average, households are likely to make a move once every 8 to 9 years. In the U.S., 60 to 70 percent of the entire population move at least once within a five-year period (Simmons, 1968). The study also found that there is a greater proportion of households enjoying an improvement in their housing tenure (from rent/living with relatives or friends to home-ownership) as well as in their housing status (upgrading from a lower housing category to better quality housing category) when they made a move. In examining the overall mobility of HDB households using the probit econometric model, we note that households that live outside the North region, particularly those in the North-East, and households that have higher income and heads in the professional occupations are more likely to make a move out of a HDB residence. As for the impact of life cycle variables, age appears to exert a negative effect on the propensity to move. Older household heads tend to exhibit the inertia to move. However, household size does not seem to affect mobility tendency. When intra-HDB mobility is analysed, the 3-room HDB flat dwellers are surprisingly the most mobile compared to households staying in larger flats, followed by the 4-room flat dwellers. They have the greater likelihood of making an intra-HDB move, upgrading to larger flats within public housing, especially when the households have dual income sources from working spouses. The executive/HUDC flat dwellers are more likely than other households to move to private housing than make an intra-HDB move. This is followed by the 5-room HDB flat dwellers. It is interesting to note that if the 5-room HDB flat-dwellers were to make an intra-HDB mobility, they are more likely to opt for the following types of housing in decreasing order: first, for a lateral move to a similar 5-room flat; next, to downgrade to 4-room flats; and lastly, to upgrade to the executive or HUDC flats.
Kaklauskas, Arturas, E.K. Zavadskas, and A. Banaitis. "Modelling and Forecasting of Real Estate Sector in Lithuania." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The model of efficient real estate sector suggested by this research is based on presumption that efficiency of real estate sector depends on many macro and microlevel variables. The presence of specific macro, meso and microlevel variable factors right away imposes objective limitations for efficient activities of real estate sector. The real estate sector, in presence of these objective limitations, tries to perform its functions in their bounds with utmost efficiency. The research aim is to produce a model of the rational real estate sector in Lithuania by undertaking a complex analysis of micro, meso and macro environment factors affecting it and to give recommendations on the increase of its competitive ability. The research was performed by studying the expertise of advanced industrial economies and by adapting it for Lithuania. Simulation was undertaken to provide insight into creating an effective real estate sector environment. While much advice has come from Western countries, little exchange of information and experience has gone on among countries in transition to learn about how others are tackling almost identical problems. Admittedly, there are successful models in developed market countries. However, there is no single universal model, but a variety of good solutions for different problems in different countries. Having investigated the effects of the variables affecting real estate sector in advanced industrial economies, some differences have been identified between these countries and Lithuania. On the basis of these differences, the main implications for Lithuania can be identified. The study of only one advanced industrial economy could lead to any inferences being purely subjective. However, by studying a number of countries any bias can be diminished. In other words, the presence of specific variable micro and macrolevel factors immediately imposes objective limitations on the efficient activities of interested parties. Interested parties, in the presence of these objective limitations, try to perform their activities in a more rational way. Based on the above considerations, it is possible to propose a model of an efficient real estate sector on the basis of the performed search for rational variable micro, meso and macrolevel factors for Lithuania. Upon completion of such a model, the interested parties will be able to use their financial resources in a more rational manner by taking into consideration existing limitations and existing possibilities of real estate sector environment. In order to find the most efficient real estate sector environment for a particular country it exhaustive conceptual and quantitative description should be made. Quantitative and conceptual description provides the information about various aspects (i.e. economical, technical, infrastructural, qualitative, legal, institutional, management, social ones, etc.) of real estate sector. The data of this quantitative and conceptual analysis are used in identifying real estate sector development trends in Western Europe and USA as well as providing some recommendations for Lithuania. Conceptual description of real estate sector presents textual, graphical (schemes, diagrams, etc.), numerical,visual (videotapes) information and the criteria used for their definition, as well as giving the reason for the choice of this particular system of criteria, their values and significances. Conceptual information is needed to make more complete and accurate evaluation of the alternatives considered. It also helps to get more useful information as well as developing a system and subsystems of criteria and defining their values and significances. In order to give a full assessment of the influence of the micro, meso and macrolevel factors (legislation, taxes (tax bracket, tax deduction, tax deferred, etc.), liquid secondary market, market transparency, professional bodies, lending institutions, real estate finance, mortgage, the techniques of selling property (sale-leaseback, lease with option to buy, etc.), insurance, information technology, education, valuerís liability, valuerís fee levels, contracts, investment instruments, housing subsidy system, credit access (use of low interest loans, waivers of closing costs, government and private mortgage insurance, reduced down payments, sweat equity, flexible debt-to-income ratios, lease-purchase arrangements, deferred second mortgage), etc.) in influencing the total efficiency of a real estate sector, it is necessary to analyse them in more detail in conceptual and quantitative forms. In order to demonstrate the application of the above techniques to developing of a rational real estate sector conceptual and quantitative models for Lithuania a determination of rational housing investment instruments and lenders will be considered below as a sample.
Pietilä, Paula, and Anna-Kaisa Kauppinen. "Modelling of outsourcing decision-making process in the Finnish market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In Finland, the real estate business is going through a fundamental structural change, which has brought forth a need to develop new ways of managing real estate. One indication of the change is an increasing interest within organisations to outsource real estate related activities. However, the culture of buying and providing management services is rather immature in the country. Further applied research in the real estate discipline is needed in order for outsourced real estate management to be able to advance as a business. This paper presents insights into outsourcing market conditions in Finland and the level of real estate management related activities outsourced in Finnish corporations. Companies acting in this field of business in Finland are categorized and leading professionals are identified. Based on literature review, international experiences and in-depth case studies among companies participating in the project (e. g. Catella, Nokia Service Center, ABB), a theoretic modelling of outsourcing decision-making process is sketched. The outsourcing process is based on the core business strategy of the company, and finding an optimised boundary between core business and activities to be outsourced. The next steps are to define the desired characteristics of the outsourcing relationship, analysing the effects of outsourcing to the organisationís business and performance, planning the implementation and negotiating the outsourcing contract. The paper proposes some critical success factors in the process, and assesses outsourcing as carried out within companies in Finland. VTT Building and Transport, in co-operation with KTI (Institute for Real Estate Economics), is carrying out a three-year research project on ìoutsourcing as a potential means of strengthening real estate managementî. The starting point in terms of multidisciplinary research is to look into the subject from both the perspective of corporate real estate and that of a service provider, aiming at an optimised outsourcing contract and partnership benefiting both parties, as well as tools to manage and monitor the outsourcing relationship. This paper summarises the outcomes of the first phase of the project.
d'Amato, Maurizio. "Most Probable, most possible." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The work is focused on the application of possibility theory to property appraisal. Usually appraiser is used to find a ìmost probable selling priceî of the property to be estimated in an uncertain environment. In other sciences uncertain information have been analyzed in different ways. Starting from the possibility theory (L.Zadeh, 1978) it is possible to deal with property market data reaching, in some contexts, different conclusions. The work is organized as follow: after an introduction, the first paragraph will analyze a brief profile of fuzzy sets ant theory of possibility. In the second paragraph the attention will be concerned about the comparison between most probable selling price and ìmost possible selling priceî. A final paragraph will offer final remarks and future directions of research.
Tanninen-Ahonen, Tiina. "National Technology Programmes as a Tool to Increase R&D activity in Real Estate Management and Services Case Rembrand." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The real-estate industry is running the risk of lagging behind in the global competition. The productivity increase in the sector has not been able to match the development of most other industries. The explanation put forward for this underperformance has been the lack of adequate allocation of resources to R&D that has led to suboptimal levels of innovation. Explanatory factors for the low levels of R&D spending has been sought in the fragmentation of the industry and a long tradition of regulatory intervention. The absence of a business climate has weakened the incentives for change and renewal, especially in the ownership sub-sector of the industry. One general way of promoting change and integration of the industry is to develop the ownership function to become a skilful and a perceptive intermediate between the various service providers (including the construction sector) and the end-user. Ownership has thus to be transformed from a passive possessor of assets into an active, customer oriented business unit that unites the various sub-processes into a service-business concept that adds value to the end userís core business. As the technical expertise and the research tradition in Finland are apparently not problems as such, the gap is to be found in the lack of competence to identify and, above all, to respond adequately to the real needs of the customer. Since global customers will not adjust their demands to outside influences in the form of e.g. traditions in a particular country, the Finnish Real Estate Cluster, will have to meet the ever increasing challenge of making its products more customer oriented. In addition to making products more tailored, this specifically implies that the service component of real estate products has to be acknowledged and focussed on. As more and more of the Finnish wealth originates from high-tech sectors where much of the investments are immaterial, we begin to realise that the notion of technology has broadened to a concept in which the fundament of a technology does not necessarily originate from a physical product. Even in the most generic definitions of technology it is realized that a technology is not just an ëartefactí or collection of artefacts i.e. physical items like machinery, but also includes the knowledge and skill which are required to make use of the artefacts. The basic technology equation (artefact+skill+knowledge) emphasises that technology is not just the physical product but the bundle of all three components. In the future, new technologies will equally likely be created from a service concept that consists of a unique combination of both services and physical products. Thus the concept of technology develops in line with the general evolution, where products are becoming increasingly customer oriented and tailored. In an effort to speed up this process a five-year R&D programme called Rembrand was initiated by the National technology Agency in Finland. The purpose of the Rembrand (Real Estate Management BRAND) technology program, with a volume of 20 Meuro, is to promote a functional integration of the fragmented real estate and construction industry in Finland. Competitive advantages will arise from the efficiency gains and the creation of new business opportunities that are the outcome the integration of the various sub-fields of this business sector. The integration will take place through the transformation of the activities into a service and customer oriented business environment. In the program, customer-oriented real estate business operations will be developed into service concepts to give the property user added value. The programme will last from 1999 to 2003. Its total funding is FIM 120 million (Euro 20 million), half funded by industry and half by Tekes. Currently there are 70 projects with a volume of 12 Meuros in the program. The projects sponsored range from firm-specific strategic developments of new service concepts to collective research projects focussing on some central topic e.g. the role franchising in the FM sector. In this paper, the structure of Rembrand Program, focussing on increasing the R&D efforts necessary for this fundamental change, is described. The main challenges for the success of such a large project are analysed and the intermediate results of the R&D projects sponsored by programme are discussed.
Thissen, Maarten. "New Directions for European non-listed property funds- A focus on the roles of the players in the European property investment market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Academic research often examined real estate as an asset class. These studies were often focused on risk-return issues, diversification benefits or certain securitized investment vehicles, mostly REITs and commercial mortgage backed securities. The research that covered the private equity side of the real estate capital market often-focused on direct property investments (e.g. property level returns and factors relating to portfolio performance). To my review of research literature, there have only been a few empirical studies conducted on the performance of the real estate private equity fund market. These studies often focused on small parts of the market, like opportunity funds[2] and not on the market of real estate private equity vehicles as a whole. That is why this paper examines the position of the European-focused non-listed property funds in relation to the rest of the indirect real estate market. The issues discussed in this paper are intended to support institutional investors in their selection of a non-listed property fund operated from the European Union.
Lorenzo, José Maria Mont. "New Statistical Technologies applied to the estimation of the free Housing Prices: Artificial Neural Networks." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The aim of this research is the use of the artificial neural networks models, specifically Multilayer Perceptrons trained by the algorithm known as Backpropagation to estimate the free housing prices. This methodology allows, through the training of the backpropagated nets, to estimate the houses prices on the basis of some variables, related to the houses, which are considered relevant (location, age, surface, quality, ...), overcoming the linear restrictions characteristic of the traditional statistical models used for this objective. The authors purpose is to show the forecasting power of these techniques as well as to suggest a change in the design of databases which have to do with the real estate market in such a way that the generalized use of this procedure is possible.
Lorenzo, José Maria Mont, and Noelia García Rubio. "New Statistical Technologies applied to the estimation of the free Housing Prices: Kriging." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The aim of this research is the use of the methodology called Kriging to estimate the free housing prices in a given geographical environment. This methodology allows the design of digitized maps of geographical areas like towns, provincial capitals, ... in such a way that if you pick in a certain house location and set the most relevant information concerning the house (age, surface, quality, ...), the system supplies its price on line. Therefore, the authors propose an automated system to fix prices which would result in a great economic saving for the real estate agencies and a fiscal optimization from the point of view of the appropriate economic authorities in the matter of housing price. This system can be generalized to be used in relation to another real estate assets such as offices or lots,... Furthermore, it allows the cokriged estimation of all of them at the same time.
Faggiani, Antonella, and Ezio Micelli. "New tools for land policy in Italy." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Urban economists and planners have been debating the possibility of using innovative methods and tools in managing urban plans to increase their effectiveness. According to many theoretical contribution, a major step would lie in shifting from the use of authoritative tools toward market-based ones. The institution of a development rights market in order to implement urban plans represents a major attempt to transfer into the practical urban government such a theoretical perspective. The goal of the paper is to illustrate the major case studies of development rights markets in Italy and to explain several significant elements emerge from an analysis. First, markets for development rights do not replace the command and control tools traditionally used in planning. In reality, the success of the new markets seems to depend significantly on their integration with the latter. Furthermore, markets for development rights have not proven to be automatic devices led by an invisible hand: the visible hand of the administrations takes steps to establish market rules and to promote them, reducing transaction costs as much as possible.
Psunder, Igor. "Non-liner Adjustments by Real Estate Appraisal." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Real estate appraisal base among others on the comparison of area of real estates (e.g. apartments), particularly when the market comparison approach is used. For very similar real estates the adjustment for area can be made by commonly used linear manner, but for the comparison of rather differently big real estates a non-linear relationship should be considered as relevant. In the present article the non-linear relationship is discussed and an equation for non-linear adjustments is derived. The equation is based on the cost-to-capacity relationship, which is commonly used in machinery and equipment appraisal, but it is adopted for use in real estate appraisal. Equation is empirically verified on data from practice. Presented non-linear adjustment process should increase usefulness of the market comparison approach, particularly when the market is weak and comparable recently sold real estates are hard to find. The non-linear equations will give the appraiser more space to look for suitable comparable real estates. The results of the non-linear appraisal are very transparent and accurate as long as the power n of the non-linear equation is determined exactly for every region.
Riddiough, Timothy J., Ott Steven, Ha-Chin Yi, and Jiro Yoshida. "On demand: Cross-country evidence form Commercial Real Estate Asset Markets." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Using over 25 years of quarterly US and Japanese time series data, this paper examines the determinants of demand for an important class of real assets: commercial real estate. We specify a structural model of market equilibrium that considers direct effects of real investment on built asset price. Our empirical findings are consistent across countries and produce several new results. First, we find that real investment exerts a significant positive direct effect on asset price, which in turn feeds back to impact investment decisions. Second, idiosyncratic risk is found to be strongly positively related to asset price, and to complement supply effects. Third, systematic risk is priced as expected, where the strength of the relation between asset price and systematic risk is found to be higher than in previous studies of capital asset prices. Fourth, lagged values of price determinants (of up to two years) are consistently important in real asset demand estimation. Alternative explanations for our findings are analyzed and discussed. Implications for asset pricing model specification and interpretation are also considered.
Meen, Geoffrey, Kenneth Gibb, Daniel Mackay, and Michael White. "On The Interrelationship Between Housing and Industrial Construction." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Most empirical analysis of property development treats the sub-components of the construction industry as independent of each other. For example, models of housing construction typically do not consider any possible relationship with industrial or commercial construction. New building and repair and maintenance are rarely modelled jointly. But, in fact, there are a number of ways in which changes over time may be interdependent. For example, since similar labour skills are required across the sub-sectors and labour supply is not perfectly elastic, expansion in one sector might impose constraints on others. Furthermore, economic theory suggests that, under some conditions, housing investment crowds out industrial and commercial investment in a general equilibrium framework. In general, therefore, if there are any interdependencies, the presumption is that the relationship is negative. In this paper, we test the interdependencies between the sectors, concentrating particularly on the relationship between new housing and industrial construction. We find that, although in the short run the expected negative correlation occurs, this is not true in the long run, based on Johansen tests for British data since the sixties. Indeed, in the long run, the relationship is positive ñ movements in the two are complementary. At first sight, this result is counter-intuitive, at least in an aspatial setting. However the result can be explained once a spatial dimension is added to the analysis, taking account of firm location decisions. Weak exogeneity tests indicate that, for the industrial sector, îjobs move to workersî rather than ìworkers moving to jobsî as standard residential location theory might suggest. Therefore a positive relationship occurs between housing and industrial construction, particularly in southern England, as newly-forming and relocating firms seek out highly skilled workers who, in turn, seek out high quality housing locations.
Onder, Zeynep, and Süheyla Ö. zyldrm. "Optimal Tenure Decision: Discrete Binary Choice Approach." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Tenure choice has been one of the most studied concepts in the housing literature (for example, Rosen, 1979; King, 1980; Fallis, 1983; Henderson and Ioannides, 1983; Fu, 1991). In the econometric studies, tenure choice and mobility decisions are considered to be related (for example, Boehm, 1981; Ioannides, 1987; Rosenthal, 1988; Ioannides and Kan, 1996; Kan, 2000). In the theoretical tenure choice models, households are assumed to maximize their expected utility subject to their budget constraints. These models try to solve household's tenure choice problem by using dynamic programming and solving with backward induction (for example, Artle and Varaiya, 1978). When individuals are faced with these types of problems in real life, it is found that they solve these problems by looking forward instead of backward induction (for example, Camerer, et al. 1993). The aim of this paper is to model and solve households' tenure choice problem by forward looking using genetic algorithm. The model replicates an individual's tenure and mobility decisions over life time period. The objective of the individual is to maximize the expected discounted value of his rewards by the optimal sequence of discrete housing tenure choices. In the initial stage, a representative household head at an age of 25 is taken and his tenure and mobility decisions are examined until the age of 75 over 5- or 10-year intervals. The decision points are considered at the ages of 25, 30, 35, 45, 55 and 65. At each decision point, there is a probability that he might move. If he moves, he has to make a tenure choice, own or rent a home. If he does not move, he stays in his current residence. It is assumed that individual will liquidate his house and move to a nursing home or die at the age of 75. Each individual is assumed to have certain initial endowment. In the initial period, if they decide to own a house, they will use this endowment as downpayment and get a mortgage for the remaining value of the house. The reward of the home owner is after tax household income after mortgage payments and property taxes. If individual wants to be a renter in the initial period, he will invest his initial endowment to get a market rate of return. His reward is after tax income he gets after paying rent. If individual moves, he has to pay transaction cost which is assumed to be higher for owners than renters (DiPasquale and Wheaton, 1996). At each decision point, the probability to move changes depending on the characteristics of the individual. In determining these probabilities, the model by Boehm, Herzog and Schlottmann (1991) is estimated using a sample of recent movers from 1990-1993 Panel Study of Income Dynamics data. In the logit estimation, the variables include income, size of family, marital status, change in marital status, race, gender, age, occupation, change of jobs, change in size of family, employment status. Hence, individual's moving probability changes over its life time. Several experiments are made using this model regarding to changes in property tax rates, changes in income tax rates, market interest rates and house price appreciation rates. The initial analyses suggest that when tenure choice problem is solved by forward looking rather than backward induction, different results are obtained regarding to the impact of these changes on household's tenure choice decisions. Moreover, the increase in property taxes is found to be reducing total welfare of the society.
García, Dolores. "Optimal Urban Growth with Environment Effects. A Valuation Exercise." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This study provides an alternative empirical approach to identify optimal urban growth when accounting for its associated environmental effects. Rather than focusing on the energy and pollution consequences of urban form often discussed in the literature, this paper analyses the problem of the so called sustainable city from the perspective of the environmental amenities perceived by housing consumers. Departing from the existing trade-off between the environmental benefits derived from living at lower densities and the environmental costs of transforming rural landscapes to urban uses, and using stated preferences techniques, the exercise analyses the effects of current urban growth trends in the Metropolitan Region of Barcelona (MRB). Thus, it is analysed whether more compact or more disperse urban growth would be welfare-improving in this particular setting. The results are obtained from a market simulation exercise that uses both contingent ranking and contingent valuation data. Both types of discrete response format yield positive willingness to pay estimators for a diminishment of density levels within cities in the MRB, even if this implies cities to grow at the cost of losing some of their surrounding landscapes. According to these results, a more compact city scenario would be welfare-decreasing from the perspective of the estimated demand of urban environmental goods. These results suggest that planning systems that lead to rather high density levels and higher land prices would not be justified on environmental grounds, because they would overcorrect the externalities caused by the loss of undeveloped landscapes.
Flint-Hartle, Susan. "Organisational Learning and Real Estate Performance." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Dramatic change and new competitive demands pose both threats and challenges for real estate businesses. The role of the real estate professional is becoming increasingly complex. As steward of the transaction, the role of the agent and indirectly that of the salesperson can be at once facilitator, negotiator, image creator, graphic designer, financial and property management consultant ñ all new skills added to the age old selling skills of qualifying and closing. In todayís real estate businesses successful individuals realise the need to keep learning and growing in order to deliver a quality service. Just as important as individual learning however is organisational learning ñ learning at the level of the business unit as a whole. This paper questions whether competitive advantage in a changing environment can best be achieved through facilitating organisational learning. It asks; are learning and success linked? A sample of real estate franchise offices operating in the greater Auckland area was selected and the score of each office on 11 learning company criteria (Pedlar et al 1997) was recorded on a newly developed framework - The Effective Learning Zone. This exploratory research was underpinned by the findings of a questionnaire, which was adapted to suit the New Zealand real estate environment. Data collected was analysed using the SPSS statistical programme. In-depth interview techniques were also used to overlay the quantitative data with quantitative, anecdotal evidence of organisational learning in action.
Mokrane, Mahdi, and Michel Baroni. "Physical Real Estate : Risk Factors and Investor Behaviour." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper considers the use of options in real estate risk financing and investment. A model similar to Black and Cox (1976) for pricing senior-junior debt claims is presented and proved useful for pricing outside debt financing in the context of real estate risk. Next, Quigg's (1993) strategic real options model is also simulated and used to value project flexibilities which cannot be captured using traditional net present value (NPV) models, such as delaying investment. These models' useful inputs, and especially the volatility estimator, are provided by results on real estate indexes derived in a companion paper by BarthÈlÈmy, Baroni and Mokrane (2001) on the risk factors in physical real estate, who use a database of over 100 000 transactions mainly for residential assets in the Paris area over the 1973 - 1998 period. Comparative statics and empirical implications are provided.
McIntosh, Angus, and Sarah Sayce. "Planning for Leisure: current issues consequent on urban change." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. With increasing urbanisation, all member states of the EU have developed, in different ways, mechanisms for controlling land uses. The aims, broadly, are to resolve the conflicts that would result from unfettered market forces and to promote the development of urban areas in line with social and economic policy. For heavily populated countries, the protection of rural areas is also a concern as, increasingly, is the requirement to view developments in terms of their sustainability. Inherent in any land use planning system must be the ability to produce solutions that are appropriate to the continuing and changing needs of the population. It follows that the more urbanised the country, the greater the pressures to develop a land use planning system that is both robust and responsive. In EU terms this means that the countries with the greatest overall strain on the land use controls systems are likely to be Belgium, the UK and the Netherlands. All of these, it is argued (Balchin et al, 1999) have reached a point at which the urbanisation process has produced particular problems in terms, not of suburbanisation but of deurbanisation. This places pressure on major urban settlements in terms of the need for regeneration (DETR, 2000). If the consequent issues of this settlement pattern change are considered alongside the changes in the nature of economic and social activity , leading to the emergence of the so-called ëexperience economyí (Gilmore and Pine, 1999) then the land use planning system needs also to be flexible. Within the UK the planning system is multi-tiered. The most detailed instrument of land use control, and that which therefore has the greatest need for flexibility is the ëUse Classes Orderí. This instrument details prescribed uses, classified by general type. It gives to the building owner and occupier certain rights to alter uses without the need for consent. The current system has been in place for many years, although it was amended in 1987. There is a view, recognised by government, that the current instrument may be outmoded and no longer reflective of the rapid social, economic and urban changes that have occurred. In particular the treatment of the new-style leisure properties is considered problematic. This paper will detail work in progress by the authors, on behalf of the Leisure Property Forum, to determine, by survey, the level of disquiet in the current system with a view to making recommendations for change. In reviewing the responses to the survey the authors will consider parallels with the experiences of the other heavily urbanised countries.
Long, Mark, and Peter Hayes. "Portfolio performance attribution - A new approach." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The traditional approach to portfolio construction has been based around the concept that there are performance differences across regions and functionally between different types of real estate. The result of which is that portfolios are described and compared on the basis of their portfolio weighting to different regions or sectors. For a number of years now IPD in the UK, and more recently in other countries, has produced a portfolio attribution model of real estate assets based upon a functional regional segregation of the market. Whilst such a method of segregation feels intrinsically correct, and there is some evidence to support it, relatively little of the variance in returns between individual assets is explained by such methods. The principal problem with segmentation of real estate markets is that property is by its very nature heterogeneous and any one segment lumps together radically different investments. This paper aims to compare the segmentation used by IPD with a totally different approach, which does not explicitly differentiate between location or sector specific factors. Instead we intend to test whether a portfolio could be more efficiently constructed on the basis of a number of different factors such as vacancy rates, lease lengths, development activity and lot size amongst others.
Cieleback, Marcus. "Prepayment of German Bauspar-Loans: The importance of borrower and loan characteristics in predicting loan prepayment." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. A Bauspar-Loan is a second mortgageobtained after completing the saving period in a contractual savings for housing system in Germany. Using a unique Bauspar-Loan data set, consisting of 67811 Bauspar-Loans paid off or prepaid in 1998, 1999 or from January to September 2000, tests will be conducted if interest rates and borrowert characteristics affect the likelihood that a Bauspar-Loan is prepaid. Therefore, four different measures of prepayment incentives are constructed on the basis of mortgage and money market rates to find out what determines the prepayment behavior of mortgage borrowers.
Kariya, Takeaki. "Pricing Mortgage-Backed Securities. A Model Describing the Heterogeneity of a Mortgage Pool." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Using a discrete time approach, this paper presents a no-arbitrage pricing formula for MBSs (mortgage-backed securities), and taking into the heterogeneity of a mortgage pool, proposes a specific model for MBS prices that describes the so-called burnout phenomenon of prepayments due to refinance, sale of houses for mortgage, and default. This is a generalized version of Kariya and Kobayashi (2000) in which only refinance is considered for prepayment. The heterogeneity of the mortgage pool is expressed by different response functions of mortgage borrowers to the changes of interest rates and the price changes of equities or houses. Numerical examples for pricing MBSs are demonstrated together with certain specifications of interest model and price model. An estimation procedure is provided based on a recursive least squares method. The discrete time no arbitrage theory is discussed in Appendix.
Valenzuela, Manuel, and Carmen Vázquez. "PromociÛn Inmobiliaria y Procesos de ConstrucciÛn de Regiones Metropolitanas: El caso de Madrid." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. El fenÛmeno conocido como ìciudad dispersaî, ìciudad difusaî o ìestallido urbanoî aparece datado desde los aÒos setenta en la bibliografÌa cientÌfica (Bauer & Roux, 1976; Indovina, 1990; Garreau, 1991; Choay, 1994; Fishman, 1994; Dupuy, 1995; Jenks, Burton & Williams, 1996) al describir y analizar las transformaciones acaecidas en las grandes ciudades que experimentan importantes pÈrdidas de poblaciÛn, especialmente en sus ·reas centrales en beneficio de las coronas coronas metropolitanas, e incluso m·s recientemenet en direcciÛn a municipios hasta muy recientemente de base rural. En nuestra contribuciÛn nos ocuparemos de cÛmo los municipios rururbanos se convierten en receptores de una clientela residencial de origen urbano, que huye de los elevados precios de suelo y vivienda en las ·reas centrales, de sus problemas de congestiÛn y contaminaciÛn, entre otros motivos, al mismo tiempo que se ve atraÌda por las ventajas comparativas de estas nuevas ·reas residenciales (precios de vivienda competitivos, nuevas tipologÌas de vivienda unifamiliar de baja densidad, ìideologÌa clorofilaî asociada a nuevos estilos de vida, amplios espacios libres pero no siempre de unas y suficientes de equipamientos). Este proceso, ampliamente documentado en otros modelos urbanos (anglosajÛn, centroeuropeo) desde las primeras dÈcadas del siglo XX , llegÛ a las ciudades espaÒolas en los aÒos 80 coincidiendo con el boom inmobiliario de su segunda mitad, pero se ha acentuado a˙n m·s en la segunda mitad de los 90, perÌodo tambiÈn caracterizado por el encarecimiento de la vivienda en general, pero sobre todo en las grandes ciudades. La RegiÛn Urbana de Madrid ejemplifica elocuentemente el paralelismo entre las incidencias en el mercado inmobiliario y los procesos de construcciÛn o maduraciÛn de las metrÛpolis postindustriales. La casi total autonomÌa de la vivienda respecto al mercado de trabajo (resuelto a nivel del conglomerado metropolitano) est· dando lugar con otros contenidos sociales y otras modalidades promocionales a una nueva generaciÛn de asentamientos residenciales cada vez a mayor distancia de la ciudad-central. Se diferencian de las ciudades-dormitorio de los aÒos 60 tanto en la procedencia de la poblaciÛn (de origen intrametropolitano), como por su composiciÛn sociodemogr·fica (matrimonios jÛvenes de clase media-baja) y por las tipologÌas residenciales (predominio de la vivienda unifamiliar). El modelo promocional tambiÈn difiere por su tamaÒo, procedencia de la iniciativa e incluso modalidades de financiaciÛn. La presencia, en cambio, de operaciones p˙blicas tanto de suelo como de actividad econÛmica o de infraestructuras asÌ como las polÌticas de reequilibrio territorial propiciadas desde la Comunidd AutÛnoma proyectan hacia el futuro dudas sobre la maduraciÛn de este tardÌo modelo residencial disperso. Hoy por hoy el modelo presenta m·s interrogantes y carencias que razones de elogio, sobre todo si se valoran sus externalidades negativas desde la perpsectiva de los costes sociales que desencadena y de los criterios de sostenibilidad.
Surapolchai, Saowaluck Lertbut. "Property Project Risk Management in Thailand." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This research paper has focused on project risk management and processes applied to real estate property project development in Thailand. The paper shows some information with the case study in Thailand. The research relates to conceptual models linked to project risk management processes with a summary of ideas in recovery the real estate crisis in Thailand. Developing the concept of project management and life cycles associated with time - cost - performance and technology subject to the objective of risk control to meet the needs of potential customers.
Brouns, A.S.P., and G.J. Fernhout. "Public Private Partnerships in Refurbishment of Disadvantaged urban Areas." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. NEI Kolpron Finance is a strong player in the Dutch real estate consultancymarket. NEI Kolpron has a great experience in supporting both public (municipalities, ministry of housing) and private (investors, constructors) parties in the set-up of PPP-structures in various Dutch refurbishment programs, for example in Amsterdam, Utrecht and Maastricht. Internationally NEI Kolpron Finance is active in housingfinance in Central and Eastern Europe. The increase in private initiatives throughout Europe on the sphere of activities that where formerly considered as being ëtypical publicí, fits in the common belief that the government should leave as much as possible to the private sector. For example in the UK we have seen some successful PFI-programs in the construction and operation of infrastructure, prisons and schools. As operating prisons, schools and infrastructure, the execution of refurbishment programs have long been seen as a public responsibility. In most European countries this belief has had dramatic consequences for the living conditions in these disadvantaged areas. It needs no explanation that a governmental organisation is not a property-developer, and therefore has insufficient insight in how to develop high-quality residential areas. This does not mean that refurbishment is not a public responsibility; it is. What is does mean is that when public and private parties join there forces in the execution of refurbishment programs and take advantage of the each strengths, it is possible to achieve positive results. An excellent example of the result of a well-structured co-operation between public and private parties is the refurbishment of the Ceramique-area in Maastricht. Often this combination of problems is the main reason why private investors and property-developers seem to be not interested in these disadvantaged areas, though the geographical location of many of these areas is good compared to the suburbs. For example the [MEATBUURT?] in New York and ëDe Pijpí in Amsterdam used to be problem-areas but are nowadays extremely popular. Tackling the problems mentioned can have a great impact on the quality of the neighbourhood. The question is how to get the perpetual motion machine in action. As we haven seen above the problems in disadvantaged areas are not one-dimensional. It has no use to develop new real estate, when the people in the neighbourhood are still the same and still have the same problems. A key success factor is an integral approach in which there is attention for both the ëhardwareí-the development of real estate and infrastructure- and theë soft-wareí -social support-programs, enhancement of economic infrastructure and extra police-attention. The local government and the (social) housing corporations are primary responsible, so it is best for them to take the lead. But besides the municipality and the (social) housing corporations a broad range of parties should be involved, like local residents, property-developers, investors, charity-organisations, local churches and health-organisations. As stated above the local government and (social) housing corporations should take the lead in the execution of refurbishment-programs. The diversity of parties involved, each with its individual objectives, requires an efficient and decisive organisational structure. In the event that we will be invited to give a lecture on this subject we would like to pay attention to the conditions for a successful PPP, key success factors, threats and points of interest in organising a PPP-structure. In addition to that, we would like to discuss some successful PPP-programs on refurbishment in the Netherlands.
Walbröhl, Victoria. "Real Estate Asset Management of German institutional investors - Theory and Reality." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The integration of the asset class Real Estate into the context of the asset allocation decision-making process is of growing concern to institutional investors in Germany. Especially those investors holding mixed-asset portfolios are considering new approaches to determine what share of their assets should be allocated to real estate, and how their real estate portfolios should be structured. The first part of this paper presents a theoretical model of real estate asset management illustrating the ideal decision-making process. The model takes into account the findings of Modern Portfolio Theory and the empirical evidence of previous studies on the diversification benefits of real estate. Using a Markowitz optimisation model it can be shown that the integration of directly-held German real estate investment, as well as German real estate shares, in mixed-asset portfolios achieves positive diversification effects. The second part of this paper investigates the actual real estate decision-making process based on the results of a survey conducted among German life insurance companies and pension funds. The survey shows a significant gap between the theory and reality of real estate asset management of German institutional investors.
Ivanička, Koloman. "Real estate education in Slovakia." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The demand for the new real estate jobs in Slovakia. The education realtedto these jobs in the universities and systems of permanent education. The content of the courses. Analysis of the problemsrealted ti the introduction of the specialized studies in the real estate in the university education. Possible solutions of the problem from domestic and international perspective.
Parsa, Ali, Ramin Keivani, and Stanley McGreal. "Real estate investment and development and the shaping of Budapest." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Budapest has undergone major physical change and transformation since the 1980s. Much of this change has been as a result of international investment and development of new commercial, retail and out of town shopping centres. This paper considers the extent to which Budapest has changed during Hungary's transition in the post-socialist era. In this context the paper examines changes in spatial function of business activity including expansion of CBD, and distribution of retail activity. Furthermore the research reports the findings of a programme of interviews with the different actors involved with planning, development and investment and draws from empirical research concerning the activity of international real estate investors and developers in Budapest. The research stems from an ESRC funded project that seeks to evaluate the extent to which the capital cities of central Europe have been able to attract investment in the property sector.
Booth, Philip. "Real Estate Investment in an Asset/liability Framework." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001.

The last ten years has seen an explosion of literature looking at the role of real estate in a multi-asset portfolio. There has been a more limited development of literature in the UK and US which considers how real estate fits into an asset/liability pension plan framework. This paper considers further aspects of that problem. In particular, the range of available asset classes is extended to include UK equities, US equities, cash, UK government conventional bonds, UK government index-linked bonds and UK real estate. Results which suggest that a high real estate proportion is appropriate in a pension fund, because of the relationship of its returns with pension plan liabilities may not be valid when a greater number of asset classes with similar characteristics are considered. Secondly, our pension fund model decomposes pension plan liabilities into mature (retired) and immature (active) liabilities. These types of liabilities have quite different characteristics. We are therefore able to investigate whether the maturing of pension plan liabilities should have any impact on real-estate investment decisions.

Belniak, Stanislaw. "Real Estate Management in Polish Euroregions." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. At this stage this paper presents only an outline of a challenging problem. Current statistical data on euroregions continually contribute many interesting elements to be employed by the economic policy of borderline gminas. A detailed formal framework of transborder co-operation, defined by international treaties, stipulates maintaining different forms of such activity. Over the past few years 13 agreements and treaties were made, encompassing all the countries neighbouring with Poland. Euroregions constitute formal entities located along the borders of Poland that are engaged in transborder co-operation. The data disposable indicate that the new idea of euroregions is emerging as a significant political and economic venture. The project is based on the following premise: - Euroregions are located on the territories of 13 countries, including Poland and all of its neighbours / - Euroregions occupy the total of 425 square kilometres and they are inhabited by 36 million people- Euroregions accommodate 33% of Polish population and 27% of its territory. The idea of euroregions is a new, serious challenge for Poland both as a long-term commitment as well a current task. // The following facts indicate the scale of that commitment: - 13 Polish euroregions are located within 14 out of 16 new voivodships / - 13 euroregions accommodate 852 gminas at the Polish side of the border / - 29 % of Polish economic entities listed by the Census Office function within the euroregions territory. //Among the whole community of euroregions four mature regions seem especially promising. These are Pomerania, Pro Europa Viadrina, Sprewa-Nysa-BÛbr, and Nysa. All of them border with the European Union and as such are a real springboard for international co-operation. They include 28 thousand square kilometres of Polish territory, are inhabited by 2.6 million people and accommodate 174 gminas. The paper will describe real estate resources found in those euroregions and indicate the possibilities for their current and future use.
Murillo, Fernando. "Real Estate Management: Key for the Construction of a Social Housing Market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. "The incapacity of the State in the developing world in general and in Agentina, particularly to face the growing housing deficit for the low and middle-low income groups has push the national and local governments to look for new solutions. The availability of a national fund for housing (FONAVI) get through taxes, constitutes an essential resource but not enough to solve the problem, adding furthermore housing emergencies created by natural disasters, typically flooding, in the context of a growing unemployment rate. Innovative solutions explored include institutional partnership to implement common projects: Public-private partnership applies to affordable projects with components of rentability, such as middle income groups; public-non governamental partnership applied to low income housing. The Municipal Commission of housing of the Autonomous Government of Buenos Aires, currently works through both modalities of partnership: Articulating investments with the private sector in projects orientated a middle income groups and financing non governamental groups, cooperatives and enterprises to build low income housing projects. In the first group it can be mentioned the programs ""Casa Propia"" and ""Terreno, Proyecto y ConstrucciÛn"" both based on the call to private investors to present proposals with their own land, providing the local governments financial resources for construction. In the second group it can be mentioned many programs orientated to marginal population living in shantytowns, in illegal settlements, etc, calling to non-governamental groups to present projects, also providing finance for construction upon the base of the property of land. It means that the key for the viability of projects in both cases of partnership is the availability of urban land. The city of Buenos Aires faces an important shortage of available land, together with an important increase of prices. The result is the reduction of social projects and the increase of investment projects orientated to medium and high-income groups, excluding the low-middle and low-income groups of the city. The southern area of the city has important possibilities to generate vacant land where to build social projects. The central problem is the lack of information respect to cost and localization for decision making. This research develop a methodology orientated to create an instrument for analysis and information useful for designing investments in the field of housing with special emphasis in middle and low income housing, through survey of available vacant land, market analysis and monitoring the incidence of the cost of land in housing projects. Some preliminary conclusions include the issues of land speculation as result of the legal framework of the public call to present projects; and the sustainability of the social market in the context of the rules of the current real estate management rules in the city of Buenos Aires."
Kovac, Maruska Subic. "Real Estate valuation in Slovenia between Theory and Practice." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The orientation to market economy in Slovenia ten years ago influenced also the developments in the field of real estate. The establishing of private property, and the processes of privatisation and denationalisation as a result thereof, directly influenced the development of real estate market. In practice, the necessity for market real estate valuation was imperative. This short review of the developments in market real estate valuation in Slovenia within the past ten years is based on the current legislation and its impacts on the practice in real estate valuation. Some dilemmas and tendencies in this respect, as well as some preliminary measures by the Government to regulate this field, are presented.
Pérez, Javier Sarasa. "Real estate's tax valuation in Spain." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Real stateís interest as a taxation subject is doubtless, not only in the spanish domestic field, but also in other countries with a developed taxation system. Its characteristic qualities make them a very appealing source of funds for the State¥s public treasury, as well as for the autonomic and, especially, local ones. On the same ground, real stateís measurement in terms of economic capacity, its valuation, in actuality, for a taxable income¥s concretion, becomes essential for the taxation debtís determination in those taxes that levy them. However, there is no coherent and unified treatment regarding this issue, being in some cases indetermined and close to the Administrationís arbitrariness. The analysis of the several taxes that impose on the real state, both in a static and a dinamic situation, implies in its conclusions the scarce coordination in this valuation and the problems that, therefore, are produced. It seems imperative an in depth research about the problem that gives coherence and unifies, wherever it¥s possible, the procedure of its valuation.
Sayce, Sarah, and Owen Connellan. "Red, White or Blue? Colouring Valuersí perceptions." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The issue of guidance and regulation of valuersí practice is topical. As identified by the authorsí previous papers (2000a, 2000b) the dream of convergence in valuation practice is far from being realised. Yet, the ambition for consistent bases of valuation remains an ambition of national and supra-national bodies. Indeed it is increasingly important given the continuing rise in cross-border property transactions. Within the last 12 months, notable changes have occurred within the compulsory and best practice guidance given to valuers. In July 2000 the International Valuation Standards Committee (IVSC) issued revised guidance and in November the European Group of Valuersí Association (TEGoVA) published the 4th Edition of their European Standards. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) in its Red Book is consistently reviewing advice to practitioners with the last amendments being in November 2000. Some of these revisions are part of the ongoing overhaul of all standards. However, some of the developments have been driven by changes in accounting standards and their application. It was these, specifically, that led the RICS to re-issue its mandatory practice statement on company accounting valuations in March 2000. The authors have a particular interest in this area in relation to both public and private sector assets and last year explored some of the preliminary effects of the accounting changes. What has become increasingly clear is that there is a lacuna between the recognised bases for asset valuations as between the three major bodies (RICS, TEGoVA and IVSC). The area in which this is most apparent is the acceptance, or otherwise, of EUV (existing use value). This is recognised by both TEGoVA and RICS but not internationally. Indeed, the very concept of EUV has been criticised by, inter alia, Dunckley (2000) and the authors. It is also inconsistent with International Accounting Standards. This paper will seek to explore whether the abandonment of EUV in international guidance is presenting difficulties in relation to properties that have to be valued for accounting purposes but for which there is little or no ready market. It is contended that if market value is the only acceptable approach to accounting valuations, this will have implications for corporate entities and may give their advisers some practical problems. If EUV is abandoned it also calls into question the appropriateness of DRC (depreciated replacement cost) as a valid ësurrogateí of market value. To assist in unravelling these issues, the authors are undertaking a series of by in-depth interviews with: international consultancy firms; professional body representatives; and corporate bodies. // The interviews will be concluded in time for findings to be reported to the conference together with the authorsí views on the likely future abandonment of EUV within the European context.
W. Brzeski, Jan. "Reforming Residential Property Taxation in Poland - Challenges of the Transition Process." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. One of the cornerstones of transition to market economy in Poland was the restitution of local governments with some self financing taxation powers. The main source of own revenues was placed in property taxation, which is consistent with market based economies. Real estate markets were undeveloped at the outset of reforms and the property tax base was set on property size and use formulas. The square meter rate caps were set nationally and created profound distortions not recognised by politicians. Residential properties are taxed at such a low rate that the tax is treated simply as a minimal fee insignificant in housing cost calculus. Non-residential rates are 35 times higher and discriminate against large area industrial users. Land is taxed 8 times less than buildings, which creates incentives for cost-less land speculation. Despite the apparent distortion effects on land use and despite the acute need for more robust local tax base necessary for aggressive infrastructure investments, there is a widespread popular opposition to switching towards an ad valorem formula, which would allow to selectively raise tax revenues without increasing an average tax burden as related to asset values. The standard arguments about increased accountability, transparency, efficiency and equitability do not find many followers. It seems that the local politicians as well as their voters still live with illusions that central governments will take care of local finances. In this view increased efforts need to be undertaken in the area of public relations and taxpayer education. At the same time the government is attempting to adopt a gradual strategy of introducing the notion of value based wealth taxation through small steps beginning with differentiation of tax levy by location in broad ìland valueî zones. At the same time there is a need to begin with revenue neutral changes, which raises the issue of who is going to finance the necessary preparatory work. The whole process is moving towards full ad valorem tax system is designed for about 10 years.
García, Pedro Saura. "RegulaciÛn ”ptima del mercado del suelo." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. En el debate que se viene desarrollando en EspaÒa sobre la regulaciÛn del mercado del suelo urbano, y sus consecuencias, ha primado la pasiÛn, la excesiva virulencia, y los posicionamientos apriorÌsticos, quiz·s producto de la escasa utilizaciÛn del instrumental que aporta el an·lisis econÛmico, tanto teÛrico como aplicado, asÌ como la insuficiente informaciÛn estadÌstica existente sobre dicho mercado y sus precios. Este artÌculo trata de contestar a las siguientes preguntas: ø es cierto que la regulaciÛn del mercado del suelo en EspaÒa genera una escasez artificial?, ø la divisiÛn entre suelo urbanizable y no urbanizable encarece el precio del primero?, ø es verdad que no hay escasez de suelo urbanizable? , ø la escasez se produce exclusivamente en el caso del suelo apto para edificar?, ø la reducciÛn de las cesiones a los Ayuntamientos va a abaratar el precio del suelo?, ø es necesario estructurar de mejor manera la regulaciÛn del mercado del suelo en EspaÒa, atendiendo verdaderamente a los fallos de dicho mercado?. Por tanto, en el mencionado artÌculo, se reflexiona en torno a esas preguntas con el objeto de aportar ideas que puedan ofrecer alguna respuesta, asÌ como las necesarias prescripciones de polÌtica urbanÌstica y econÛmica. Acudiremos para ello al instrumental del an·lisis econÛmico, teniendo en cuenta las aportaciones de autores cl·sicos como Ricardo y Von Thuner, asÌ como, la teorÌa keynesiana de los fallos de mercado, o los conceptos de renta econÛmica e ingreso de transferencia. Para pode contrastar las hipÛtesis manejadas se utilizan datos del mercado del suelo de la RegiÛn de Murcia.
Jones, Colin, N. Dunse, and A Orr. "Rental Depreciation, Obsolescence and Location: The case of industrial Properties." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The seminal empirical work in this area by Salway (1986) examined the depreciation of rental and capital values of offices and industrial units using the valuation of new and old notional standardised properties at June 1985. Baum (1991) extends the research by considering actual buildings: a study of 125 office buildings in the City of London and a study of 125 properties in an industrial estate to the west of London. However, his research still applies the professional judgement of surveyors (via a panel) to value properties. Baumís results are location specific, and indicate a lower rate of depreciation for industrial property than Salwayís ëaverageí. Salway (1986) found that most commercial buildings reached the end of their functional or economic lives well before they reached the end of their physical lives. Similarly Baum (1991) argues that depreciation is likely to be highest where land values are lowest. The basic premise of this paper is that depreciation/obsolescence will systematically vary by location and the paper sets out to assess the spatial dimension to these processes. It will reassess the property obsolescence and depreciation literature focusing on the impact of rents over time, and how they interact with local economic change, the structure of properties, and demand preferences. A number of hypotheses will then be tested empirically. The research method will be based on hedonic regression analysis with asking rents as the dependent variable and property characteristics as independent variables, following the approach set out by Dunse et al (2000). The data for the paper are derived from a database, developed by the University of Paisley, that comprises all properties on industrial estates in Scotland. The database in particular records information on asking rents, property characteristics which include age, type and location. The analysis will be focused on the Strathclyde area where there are a total of 3180 asking rent observations spanning the period 1994-2000.
Schulte, Karl-Werner. "Research Topics at Real Estate Society Conferences - a comparison of ARES, AsRES, ERES AND PRRES Conferences." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The Annual Conferences of the above mentioned societies are the largest within the IRES network. The research interests of academics and practitioners who present papers at these conferences seem to be different from region to region. The intention of this paper is to find out which research topics are dominant in Northern America, Asia, Europe and the Pacific Rim and whether different research approaches can be identified.
Pereiro, Juan Fernández. "Residential Activity in the Metropoly. Asturias: New forms of settlements and relationships." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The changes produced in the Asturian productive system in the last twenty years, have originated new forms of residential settlements in more specialized cities, whit a level of interelation among them, which will be bigger because of the new ways of the organisation of transport in the Central Area of the Region. Taking into account this framework, the localization of collective equipments, state and private, will play an essential role and its planned or spontanuous installment will have to be determinant in the relationships and interconnections of population in the following decades. Despite of that, the city will be shaped according to the bases of its own urbanistic framework. The suburban model will not be different from the current one, but the population mouvements from one urban area to another one, distant only 20 minutesí time, will be meaningful.
Kauko, Tom. "Residential property value and locational externalities: on the complementarity and substitutability of approaches." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. It is well-known from the literature that the location affects price formation of residential property. Location specific externalities can increase or reduce the value compared to a similar house situated elsewhere. The price effect of the location is usually studied empirically with the hedonic price models, by including various neighbourhood and proximity variables in the model. These regression based techniques have, however, been criticised for a number of reasons. The arguments pertain partly to technical issues such as model flexibility, functional discontinuity and nonlinearity, and data quality, and partly to more fundamental problems related to the essential nature of the value formation process. The criticism has attracted researchers to experiment with new approaches, each of which could add something substantial to the standard hedonic approach. Given an ample modelling repertoire, the question is, whether various methods are ëreal alternativesí or mere ëextension partsí to one another? The paper highlights the rationale behind each broad approach composed of specific modelling techniques currently available. An extremely mechanical approach does not appeal to everyone, even though scale benefits are achieved. On the other hand, a totally problem centric and context specific method may turn too dependent on assumptions and therefore exhibit invalid conclusions. The case is demonstrated by applying two fairly new approaches to locational value determination: the self-organising map (SOM, a type of neural network) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP, a type of value tree). Both approaches have their contributions: the SOM unveils patterns among a complex data set whereas the AHP enables quantification of qualitative judgments. The SOM-based method uses actual market data and as such represents a more sophisticated variant of hedonic regression modelling. The AHP-based method in turn is fundamentally different as it primarily deals with perceptions and preferences of experts, and may lead to conclusions that go beyond the purely economic value framework (if such a problem setting is preferred).
Del Saz-Salazar, Salvador, and Leandro García-Menendez. "Restoring Port Areas for Recreation Purposes: A contingent Valuation Study." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In this paper, the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is applied in order to measure the social benefits derived from the restoring of some port areas for recreation purposes in the City of CastellÛn (Spain). As the data show a high rate of zero responses we have applied the Spike model, one of the most recent models in CVM literature, since traditional models (Logit and Probit) are not suitable due to the characteristics of our data. The results show that the willingness to pay is significantly correlated to income, age (negatively), the expected use of the new recreation facilities and the subjective value given to the whole project.
Werner, Jeannette. "Results of a comparative study of comercial property taxation in Europe 2001." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. With the formal establishment of the European Single Market in 1992 and the accomplishment of the third stage of the European Money Union in 1999 many barriers for a dynamic economic exchange between the EU Member States have been reduced. The competition distorting character of the heterogeneous national tax regimes - that means 15 specific national tax systems with different taxes, tax bases and rates - as one competition hindrance still on existing is getting more and more value. To guarantee the operation of the Single Market it is necessary to minimize taxation differences dependent on location. The principle aim of this doctoral thesis is to estimate effective tax burden and tax reliability differences for domestic direct investment in commercial properties in five European countries (Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Sweden and Croatia). Qualitative and quantitative analyses will show comparitive tax advantages or disadvantages on real estate in relation to other European competitors and to develop tax reform proposals for the German legislation.Beginning the thesis with a theoretical overview of the general concept of interstate tax burden comparisons the tax profiles of the examined states will be introduced and their effects on competition demonstrated: It will be focused on the tax implications of a domestic investor directly purchasing, holding and selling real estate in his homeland for investment purposes, despite of whether the investor is an individual, a partnership or a company. The analysis takes into account all relevant taxes - profit taxes and non profit taxes, both at the state level and the municipal level, respectively direct and also indirect taxes like VAT - that may be influenced by the investment of a commercial property both at the level of the company and the level of the private individual shareholders, and also the valuation and depreciation of immovable assets. Effective tax burdens and tax reliability tests will be calculated basically over a 10-year period and will be compared applying various sensitivity analyses for alternative assumptions about the legal form holding real estate, rental agreements and the time of disposal on the fundamentals of a property model based on aggregated data from office buildings by IPD. The discussion paper will be concentrated on representation of the qualitative and quantitative research and will present consequences and conclusions in relation to the results of the analyses.
Feinen, Klaus. "Service and taxation - The drivers of real estate leasing in Germany." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. An alternative financing model; Services define the industry; Services through structuring; Globalisation and tax motivated structures; European perspective: Impact of the Euro; Different legal frameworks and tax harmonisation in the Monetary Union.
Adam, Alexander. "Shareholder Value Implications of Real Estate Finance-A theoretical Analysis for the German Real Estate Market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Real Property on average accounts for ten to forty percent of corporate market value. Its relevance for Shareholder value however, has not yet been analyzed satisfactorily and existing studies focus on cash flow aspects. Impact and potential of finance aspects have been neglected. This study analyses the theoretical framework and the applicability of Shareholder Value concepts to Real Estate finance. Potentials result from the difference between actual and theoretically appropriate capital costs due to the portfolioís risk-return profile. Avoiding those opportunity costs by putting adequate finance in place, is however linked to three conditions. Real Estate performance must be transparent, management has to be independent and investors have to be able to choose their preferred Risk-Return profile. Only after that is accomplished, already calling for major strategic and organizational changes, specific financial instruments for equity and debt can be utilized. Due to their highly innovative character, acceptance in the German capital markets cannot yet be estimated.
Karanikolas, Nicolas M.. "Should foreign investment controls apply to the real estate? - Case study: the Australian experience." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. All major industry sectors have been captured by the globalisation effect. Up until the early1970s, the worldís financial sector was predominantly operated under a fixed foreign exchange regime, which brought about regulated capital flows across borders. Most dealings in the financial markets were due to trade, which was also subject to relatively high tariff protection. The past thirty years has witness a deregulation of financial markets opening the way for large international capital flows and at the same time lowering of tariffs, leading to a large increase world trade. The effect had been, to see $billions moving across borders leading to a current turnover of over $1trillion per day in the foreign exchange markets. Trade accounts for less than 10% of this turnover, the balance being taken up by professional dealing, investment (including real estate), financing and speculation.These deregulations have also affected real estate markets. Many of the industrial countries have allowed foreign investment to flow into their property markets, but many of these countries still have some form of control. This paper will examine the arguments for and against foreign investment and the gradual easing of controls for such investment. The paper will use Australia as a case study to show the easing of its policy on foreign real estate investment and the reasons for maintaining some controls.
M Tordera-Lledó, Lorena, and Jorge Belire-Franch. "Spanish regional housing markets and inflation: Long-run relationships?" In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Real state can provide a way of avoiding real loses of value in asset portfolios. In a recent paper, Stevenson (2000), examines the long-term relationships between inflation and housing market in Great Britain. We apply Stevensonís methodology to the Spanish case, analyzing whether regional housing investment acts as an effective hedge against inflation. To that end, following Stevenson, we use the cointegration framework to assess the long-run linkage between inflation and housing returns.
Yegorov, Yuri. "Spatial Structure of Wages and Rents." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Urban economic literature usually focuses on Central Business District model, which explains rental gradient around city center and is based on assumption that agents are dispersed in space, but all work in one point. The basic idea of the present model is that jobs exist in all point of continuous space, but high wages are offered only in some set of points. It can be either due to superior technology (hi-tech center) or difference in tax laws (Monaco) or just wage differential between rural and urban area. Since housing supply is inelastic in the short run, the immediate response to such situation is travelling to work where wages are higher from the location where housing is cheaper. A short-run equilibrium presents such wage distribution and rental price for housing that nobody can make spatial arbitrage. The long run dynamics includes both investment is housing as well as labor migration. Industrialization first has pushed migration to cities, the places of superior technology, but later some people returned to the city neigbourhoods, which were offering cheaper housing and possibility to travel to work to city. This pattern of migration is named periurbanization and was typical for Spanish internal mobility in 1980-ies. The integration of EU countries, integration of Hong Kong into China as well opening of other borders create similar movement in housing rents as well as patterns of short-distance labor mobility. The paper focuses more on theoretical aspects of the problem.
Melnikov, Oleg. "State Property Management Strategy in the Republic of Belarus." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. There are about 5,500 enterprises, shares in 1,000 joint-stock companies (with state-owned block of shares constituting more than 25% in 830 companies), sizable areas in non-residential fund on the state property list. Until recently the objectives of management for a particular property unit were not defined by the state. In August 2000, the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus, by its Decree, approved the Concept of State Property Management for the period 2001-2005. The Concept has been elaborated with the purpose to increase efficiency of state property use on the systematic approach basis. Measures stipulated by the Concept are not only to regulate exercising powers of proprietor by the state. Their implementation will make it possible to improve state property reforming system and create a favourable investment climate. One of the major tasks is to optimize the number of state enterprises. Branch ministries together with the Ministry of Economy should define the enterprises to be left state-owned and those to change their status. In these case branch management schemes are to be worked out and the state will own only those enterprises whose functions cannot be performed by enterprises of any other organizational legal form. It is important to define management strategy for joint-stock companies which have been formed as a result of denationalization and privatization. The functions of state realized through participation in the capital of economic units will be optimized, vertically-integrated structures (holding companies, financial and industrial groups, etc.) will be formed, state-held shares will be sold in an effort to determine an effective proprietor and replenish the budget revenue. It is suggested that all possible forms of management should be widely used including transfer of shares to trust management by heads of unions and specialized companies having appropriate experience and qualified staff. The criterion of assessment of the state property management efficiency is the attainment of the goal of management with maximum resource saving. Privatization is considered to be a component part of the process of formation of effective system of state property management. It is obvious that the state is not in a position to regulate enormous amount of property it owns. The Concept formulates the following tasks connected with the transformation of state property. During 2001-2002, no less than 75% of unitary enterprises with workforce up to 200 will be denationalized and privatized. Till 2005 the reforming of state-owned unitary enterprises employing up to 500 people is supposed to be finalized. The preferential method of privatization of small enterprises is to sell them by auctions or on the basis of tender. In case large-scale enterprises of the republican ownership, ìpointî privatization by means of selling shares on the investment project basis predominates. To improve legal base of privatization the Ministry for Management of State Property and Privatization has elaborated a new version of the Law on Denationalization and Privatization of the State Property in the Republic of Belarus that stipulates the diversification of methods of privatization. But as of now various flexible approaches to transformation of state enterprises are employed. Thus, while selling a state property unit by an auction its starting price may be not only increased but also decreased 5 times, subject to the relation of supply and demand. Enterprises with a starting price equal to one minimum wage can be sold by auctions and tenders. In this case a buyer is to discharge debts of the enterprise. Equity market is being progressively developed. State-owned shares of 50 joint-stock companies are placed at the Belarusian Stock Exchange. Auctions and tenders for selling shares for foreign currency and for ìPropertyî vouchers are regularly held. Selling shares of state enterprises contributes to expansion of integration and attraction of investments both at the stage of reformation and in the process of future functioning of new economy entities. It should be noted that in accordance with the current legislation, foreign investors have equal rights with Belarusian legal entities and individuals.
Sanfeliu, Concepción Bartual, and Vicente Moya Ismae Caballer. "Stock-Market valuation of construction and real estate companies." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The aim of this work is to obtain explanatory equations for the stock-market value of construction and real estate companies, using the economic-financial information supplied by the same. Equations of fundamental valuation of construction and real estate companies will be calculated by means of combination of factor analysis of principal components and multiple regression, synthesizing the available information in the market and avoiding the frequent problem of multicollinearity. The contribution of this methodology to companies valuation increases on seeing the difficulties and the lack of precision when applying traditional methods. In this way, besides conventional methods, another additional criterion of valuation of companies is used, being useful in stock-market operations, in processes of concentration or for financial administration of these companies.
Kramer, Bert. "Strategic Risk Analysis for Real Estate Investors." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. By performing strategic risk analysis studies, investors can obtain insight into the risk ñ return characteristics of the current asset portfolio and into the most important risk drivers. Furthermore, via strategic risk analyses, investors can obtain insight into the relative effectiveness and efficiency of the policy instruments available to them. Policy instruments available to real estate investors are, for instance, sector (residential, retail, office, industrial) / market segment allocation and the term for new rental contracts. The selection of individual investments is not a policy instrument at the strategic level. In the Netherlands, scenario analysis by means of Monte Carlo simulation is widely accepted by institutional investors to be the most appropriate way to perform strategic risk analyses. In this paper we describe the standard methodology used by these institutional investors. Up till now this methodology has hardly been applied to strategic risk analyses for real estate portfolios. One of the reasons for this is the lack of reliable historical data with respect to direct (rental income / market rents) and indirect (capital growth) returns on commercial real estate. In this paper we discuss some potential solutions to this problem. Finally, we show some preliminary results of a strategic risk analysis performed for a Dutch real estate investor.
Shiers, David. "Sustainable Development - Barriers to Change in the UK Property Market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Environmental considerations are now influencing many aspects of the design, development and management of commercial buildings in the UK in terms of location and transport-related issues, site-specific environmental impact assessment, choice of building materials, energy use, purchasing policy, maintenance, indoor air quality and user health and comfort. There are, currently, some 280 commercial buildings in the UK which, according to most definitions of the term, could be considered to be 'green'. Whilst the introduction of a green approach to the design of UK residential property has been slow compared to many other European countries the percentage of developers and owner-occupier client organisations procuring green commercial buildings in the UK in both the public and private sector has grown steadily since the early 1990s. Indeed, many UK Government agencies and international corporations now include green buildings as part of their property portfolios and green issues are beginning to influence the thinking of both property investors and developers. However, the UK Government has felt for some time that the extent to which the property industry has been prepared to adopt more 'sustainable' practices could have been greater. As a result, it has recently commissioned a number of research projects to explore the reasons behind this apparent resistance to change and to examine ways in which UK commercial property might further reduce its many environmental impacts. This discussion paper sets out to examine a number of the factors which may explain this apparent reluctance to embrace a greener approach to property. In the first part of this paper, a number of generic barriers to change are identified and the conditions needed to both promote and facilitate change are discussed - financial incentive, creating 'protected time' in order that organisations may accommodate change and the benefits and pitfalls of greater requirement for legal compliance. The second part of this paper sets out proposals for a new UK based study, to be carried out by the Centre for Real Estate Management at Oxford Brookes in collaboration with the Department of Transport and the Regions (DETR) and the Building Research Establishment (BRE). This section of the paper will draw upon data gathered in a recently published study carried out at Oxford Brookes into the benefits of green commercial property development. This research identified and examined some of the benefits identified by building owners and occupiers in adopting a more environmentally responsible approach to property, whilst at the same time highlighting both technical and attitudinal obstacles to more widespread uptake of the green approach to commercial property investment, design and management.
Boon, Ann. "Sustainable economic development and the local economy." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Since the 1992 Rio Summit, pressure has been increasingly applied both globally and nationally for development to be sustainably accountable. As a result, current EU directives and international agreements are playing an increasing role in economic and social areas especially with reference to sustainable development. This new focus has been given substance in the UK through recent regional policy initiatives which aim to strengthen the essential foundations for economic growth ñ innovation, skills and the development of enterprise by exploiting the indigenous strengths of local economies. Using recent empirical research, this paper systematically analyses the relationship between large scale speculative commercial development and the local economy. The outcome is the formulation of a working taxonomy based on a number of key impacts. The recommendations emanating from this paper with regard to assessing proposals for speculative commercial development against a sustainable agenda are relevant to practitioners throughout Europe.
Martínez, José Manuel Mir. "System of Geographical Information on the Alicante University and its applications on Real Estate." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. University of Alicante has a population about 30.000 people that forces to an administration and planning of the infrastructures with an only objective, the best resources optimization, itís characterized by a constant variability. The SIGUA project, developed and maintained in the LabSIG from 1997, want to give an opportune answer, as an interactive way, to the necessities of patrimonial information of the campus, using the actually relational databases, we add spacial aspects as buildings, floor, rooms, surfaces; Them are connected to an interactive web map server, what allows user to access to the institutional local net with a simple internet browser. We have defined an innovative code system, based on cadastral type, that supposes the central axis of the Geographic Information System, itís based on the room characterization like minimum unit of cartographic representation. The geo-reference of the properties, facilities and rooms, next to their geometry, it allows that the space becomes the element vertebrador of the sources of university information. The goal is to provide friendly technological resources to the agents to know at the same time with detail the distribution of spaces and services that allow the appropriate daily administration of the assets, that it facilitates the planning of the future development of the university space.
Koskelo, Taina. "Technical life cycle of real estates." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Real estate business is developing fast. Development needs are challenging because of interdiciplinariness and diverseness of the branch. The main mission of real estate business is to provide premises for its customers. Designers are planning the buildings, contractors are building them and owners are supplying premises for users. During the use the real estate market needs different kinds of facilitating services directed to users or owner of buildings. Facilities Management services (FM) can be divided into 3 different sections: Technical FM-services, Commercial FM-services and Infrastructural FM-services. These services are either internally provided or outsourced according to organisational structure of the owner organisation. As the business of real estate sector is based on built property, the strategies for producing and maintaining buildings can not be meaningless. For achieving a satisfactory and profitable life cycle, the goals and visions should also be set for technical life cycle - already in project planning phase of the new building. The technical life cycle service concept is possible to define as a strategy for achieving the goals. Technical life cycle services are connected to technical decisions in project planning phase ñ decisions that have an effect on maintaining the built property to achieve predictable distribution of life cycle costs and maintain or even improve the value of investments. At the moment ìtechnical life cycle conceptî is composed of projects provided by different service providers but only rarely the totality of a building and its environment is taken into consideration at the same time. However the strategy ñ the life cycle concept - should be continuous, long term strategy, well documented and designed according to visions and goals of the owner organisation.
Hedvall, Kaj. "The Absence of Innovations and Slow Productivity Growth in the Real Estate Industry - A Behavioural Explanation." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The basic idea in public sponsoring of corporate R & D is to increase the level of risk taking in firms. Low levels of exploration of new opportunities (i.e. R & D) is especially prominent in the real estate and construction field. The increase in productivity of the entire real estate cluster has lagged behind almost all other sectors in Finland as well as in most other developed countries. The research question of the paper focuses on this dilemma of low levels of R&D and the slow development of productivity. One explanation put forward is that the cyclical nature of the real estate and construction industry has led to a business environment where the common attitude is that either there are not enough resources to develop new business opportunities or then there is no need for experimentation when the market environment is favourable. The result is a low level of exploration of new ideas and an environment with few innovations. In this paper, we discuss the question how the R&D intensity could be enhanced in the real estate industry and what the main challenges of this process are. We approach this question using a behavioural risk taking approach by March & Shapira (1992, 1987). In addition, we discuss the value added from using a collective R&D program, named a Technology Program, to remedy the issues raised. In the empirical part of the paper we study the structures of past and ongoing Technology Programs in order to test whether our proposed factors, that should enhance the level of risk taking in the industry. can be identified as key-drivers in the programs. We begin by briefly discussing the logic behind the March & Shapira model in explaning risk taking in organisations. Then, we focus on the concepts of exploitation and exploration in relation to R & D activities of an organisation. Our main hypothesis is that the low levels of R&D activities can be explained by a shift of focus from the survival point to a point above the aspiration level of the organisation due to the cyclical nature of the industry. Our main finding is that the main function of a collective sponsoring of the R&D activity an industry (i.e. of a Technology Programme) is not to generate exploration by increasing slack in organisations using public subsidies but to sponsor a collective network to increase the aspiration level of the participating organisations. Thus the Technology Program has a very important networking function, in addition to knowledge sharing, in creating an environment where the aspiration level of the participating firms is raised to induce risk taking in the form of innovative R&D.
de Bruin, Anne, and Susan Flint-Hartle. "The Behaviour of Residential Rental Property Investors in New Zeland : A Bounded Rationality Framework." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper attempts to explain the motivations of residential rental property investors in New Zealand in terms of the behavioural assumption of bounded rationality. Despite the fact that returns gained from other investment sources are more attractive, investment in residential rental property stills holds prime place in the portfolio of many New Zealanders. This paper attempts to explain why this is so. Commencing with a rejection of the more standard neo-classical economics view of rationality to explain the behaviour of these investors, the paper sets out the bounded rationality notion. It seeks to both examine the extent to which this notion applies to the behaviour encountered and to elaborate on that behaviour. An intuitive bounded rationality framework is then set out and suggested as useful for examining individual behaviour in the area of residential rental property investment. The discussion is underpinned by the findings of a postal survey of a large nationwide sample of private residential rental property owners, but is more directly based on a study of a smaller sample of investors using in-depth interview techniques. Data collected has been analysed using the SPSS statistical programme and qualitative analysis of the interview data has been overlaid to more thoroughly explore the framework of constraints within which individual investors operate. This also provides an interesting opportunity for anecdotal evidence to be added.
Ball, Michael, and Sotiris Tsolacos. "The data sensitivity of UK office and retail supply forecasts." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. After summarising the weaknesses of official construction based data, this paper provides forecasts by estimating models of office and retail supply in the UK and some of its regions using quarterly data. It shows the sensitivity of the forecasts to the time period used in the modelling. This is argued to be the result of data problems and the actual history of property supply over the past quarter of a century. Forecasts consequently can vary significantly, depending on the time series used. Suggestions are made as to the best forecasts that can be made using such data.
Boumeester, H.. "The demand for more expensive owner-occupancy in the Netherlands." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The share of owner-occupied dwellings in the Dutch current dwelling stock grew considerably during the 1980s and the 1990s. The share of owner-occu≠pied units was 39 percent in 1977, rising to 45 percent in 1989, and reaching 52 percent in 1999. Meanwhile, the share of non-subsidized units in newly construc≠ted owner-occupancy housing doubled from the mid-1980s onward, reaching about 70 percent in the second half of the 1990s. These developments have generated a sharp rise in the number of more expensive owner-occupancy units (minimum sales value of about 198,000 Euro, 1999 prices) in the dwelling stock. In spite of this increase in supply of owner-occupied dwellings, the annual average house price rose gradually from the mid 1980s and rapidly from 1995 onwards, because the demand for owner-occupied dwellings was growing constantly and faster than the supply in this period as well. This was also the case in the more expensive part of the owner-occupancy sector. An earlier study at the micro level has shown that these developments can be partly explained by socio-economic and demographic changes in the population. But the growing demand for more expensive owner-occupied dwellings also seems to be affected by the circumstances on the housing market during the period under study. In this contribution we discuss the possibilities of explaining at the macro level the development of the size of (potential and realized) demand for more expensive owner-occupied dwellings between 1975 and 1995. By applying time series analysis we established the extent to which the annual percentage of households that has moved to such a dwelling can be explained by demographic (age structure) and socio-economic (income) developments and by developments on the housing market such as house prices, rent for dwellings, mortgage interest and supply of new dwellings. This analysis is also conducted on the annual percentage of households that is willing to move to more expensive owner-occupancy. On the basis of the resulting models we try to forecast some possible trends in the demand for more expensive owner-occupied dwellings in the Netherlands in the nearby future.
Renard, Vincent. "The economic conditions of urban recycling." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. "The question of urban recycling, or reuse of urban land, or urban renaissance, is high on the agenda in many developed countries as well as in developing countries. Inside Europe, it has been the subject of an important report of the ""Urban Task Force"" chaired by land Rogers of Riverside. In France, it has been the focus of a recent legislation (Loi ""SolidaritÈ et Renouvellement Urbain"") that has been passed in December 2000. However, in spite of a general consensus about the objective, the economic conditions of a reversal of the present trend towards peripheral development do not appear to apply. The economic (and also legal ) cost of recycling,, the taxation devices that apply as well as the incentives on the housing markets , especially subsidized loans, do not allow to reverse the trend. An analysis of the comparison between various forms of urban (re) development will allow to comment the policies and try to explain their failure. The report will include case studies from Germany, UK and France."
Meen, Geoffrey. "The Economic Role of New Housing." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In recent years, there has been considerable interest within the UK from lobbies and policymakers about the wider effects of housing investment. Better housing is associated with positive health, educational and other community benefits. But does new housing have economic impacts and how significant are these effects? Does housing investment create jobs; does it help labour market adjustment; what does it imply for urban and regional economic development? This paper reports findings from a recent research project by the authors for the Housing Research Foundation, wherein evidence from the literature and from a series of new simulation and econometric modelling were assembled and analysed. The distinctive feature of the research is that it stratifies the analysis by spatial scale ñ contrasting findings from national models with those conducted at regional and urban scales. At each level of analysis, a key theme is emphasised: At the national level, crowding-out; At the regional level, new housingís impact on regional economic convergence and divergence; At the urban scale, new housingís role in cumulative causation processes of urban growth and decline. // The paper is structured in five main parts. First, it sets out key features and trends associated with new housing in the UK. Second, it considers existing and new research at the national scale and, in the third and fourth sections, repeats this approach at the regional and urban scales. In the final section of the paper, the authors synthesise the findings and draw wider conclusions.
McIntosh, Angus. "The European Industrial Distribution Property Market: Understanding the Occupiers and Investment Opportunities." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper asks; what is the European industrial market and how does it relate to the office market? It provides an analysis of rental growth, past and future and then discusses the driving forces creating demand in the industrial market? The paper identifies some of the key locations (hotspots) across Europe with reference to airports, seaports, road, rails, etc.. It makes reference to a recent King Sturge survey of 25 industrial locations across Western and Eastern Europe. The paper suggests how to identify locations for occupiers ñ using the King Sturge European industrial Occupier EUREKA chart, followed by a discussion of the impact of population density on the EUREKA chart. (European Real Estate Kritical Analysis charts) The paper concludes by providing an understanding of how investors might approach European industrial investment, with reference to the King Sturge European industrial Investment EUREKA chart.
Olmeda, Natividad Guadalajar, Mª L. Fenollos Ribera, and Fco. Javier Rib Sanchis. "The farmland market in Spain. Econometric models for the estimation of the market value." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. From 1978, the ìMinisterio de Agricultura, Pesca y AlimentaciÛn (MAPA)î has been carrying out in Spain an investigation about farmland prices in the different Spanish Regions and growings with annual periodicity. In the present paper it will be analysed which part of this price is explained by growing and which part is explained by location. On the other hand, available prices are refered to average market prices. It is interesting to compare this prices with the offer prices obtained by the most important appraisal company in Spain, in order to analyse the gaps between both source of prices. The method to be used is the Factorial Analysis, to obtain the main variables which compose the location factor. In a second step, the regression analysis will be used in order to quantify the variables that compose the land price. The growing variable will be introduced in the analysis with the gross income per growing and Spanish Region, from the data of the Red Contable Agraria Nacional (RECAN).
Delcoure, Natalya, and Norm G. Miller. "The Future of the US Residential Real Estate Brokerage Industry in Light of the Internet and International Indications." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The US residential brokerage industry has seen real commission rates and agent incomes rise over the past several decades while percentage commission charges remained relatively stable within local markets. Access to the Multiple Listing Services (MLS) and strong industry interdependency helped to maintain this system. Yet, new open MLS listing services are starting to encourage commission price competition and break down some of the market information monopoly once held by the local trade associations. This has opened the door to a potential revolution in the residential brokerage industry that will likely lead to a more efficient industry with fewer agents doing more transactions and providing a variety of ala carte services to consumers. International commission rates and agent productivity provide some evidence of the transformation that might occur over the next few decades as new consumer options evolve. International commission rates also provide further evidence that fees in the United States are likely to come down over the next several years.
Francke, M.K., and Gerjan A. Vos. "The Hierarchical Trend Model for Real Estate Valuation and Price Indices." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper presents and describes a hedonic price model, the Hierarchical Trend Model (HTM) for selling prices of houses. In a time of rapid price movements, the selling date is an important characteristic to explain selling prices, besides the size, and the location of the house. In this model cluster-level trends (for market segments), the general trend, and specific characteristics all play a role. Combined with the influence of the specific characteristics these trends are estimated within the model. The cluster-level trends are specified as deviations from the general trend. The general, and cluster-level trends are modelled as stochastic trends, so no a priori structure is assumed. The clusters, or market segments can be defined as, for example, neighbourhoods, and dwelling types. In this set-up every market segment has its own price development. This model can be used for real estate valuation. Given the characteristics of the house, the model is able to produce values for all time points in the time period under consideration. At the present moment this model is operational in Amsterdam for the determination of real estate taxes. Some empirical results are shown for the Amsterdam Region. Another application is found in the determination of price indices. Changes in the levels of selling prices can be caused by changes in the underlying characteristics of the houses. For this reason selling price levels in one period cannot simply be compared to selling price levels in another period, but the levels need to be adjusted for differences in house characteristics. It is shown that the estimated trends from the HTM provide the correct measurement of house price movements and price levels over time. The indices produced by the HTM are compared to indices from an often-used method, which simply consists of taking averages, or medians for every cluster. The research is based on data of housing market transactions in the Amsterdam Region, and in the Breda Region over the period 1985-1999 from the Dutch Broker Organisation NVM. This paper states, and empirically proves that for both Housing market Regions the Hedonic approach produces price indices which are more accurate, detailed, and more up-to-date. For both methods standard deviations are compared for price indices for the region as a whole as well as per neighbourhood, and for house type within the region, both on a monthly, quarterly, and a yearly basis.
Penabad, Celia López. "The housing Finance System in the European Union. The Outlook for the Convergence." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001.

Financial markets' globalisation has led to the liberalisation of these markets and the housing finance systems. The EMU creation process has influenced every economy sector in the member states; including the housing sector and its finance. This is the starting point of the present work which has two aims: to analyse the mutual influence of the European integration and the housing systems and to determine the possible convergence of the European mortgage finance systems.

Malkowska, Agnieszka, and Urszula Slowik. "The housing market in Poland during the transformation period." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001.

The general aim of this article is to give an insight into the housing market in Poland in the perspective of the economical climate, covering the present view of housing market in Poland and trends which have created this market. Economical, political and social changes in Poland during the last twelve years has also forced the property market to adjust to new market needs. The progress in privatisation of the economy was followed by changes to the real estate market structure. The new reality has especially affected the housing market as being strongly connected not only with economical but also to the social situation. Polish housing market came into reality at the instance of some important steps that were taken in law regulations, as well as privatisation trends enabled transfer of public properties into the free market. Taken law into consideration it is worth mentioning the introduction in 1994 of the condominium law that extended and consolidated existing form of ownership, law regulations giving the possibility to purchase flats in public buildings by their tenants and prior owners to claim back their original properties. The ownership changes are strongly related to administration reform as well as differences in meaning of State and local government roles in housing which are causing the movement of housing properties to third parties such as public institutions, public companies and private owners. Transforming State roles in housing domain also extorted some research of new forms of housing being able to cover all of the public demands. In the present situation it is to be said that the Polish housing market exists but it is still far away from a well-developed properties market although the transforming processes still take places and conduct to improvement

Zhiming, Gu, Xiaoling Hu, and Li Jianghong. "The Impact of Chinaís Joining World Trade Organization on Chinese Real Estate: Opportunities and Challenge. The Use of SSM( Social Status Matrix) and LCM ( Life Cycle Matrix) to study housing demand in Malaysia- The Case of Johor Bahru City." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The problem of oversupply situation in housing industry has caused problem of falling price and abandoned projects. Housing demand study is important to forecast a more realistic demand in the housing industry. The aim of the study is to propose alternative method of projection in housing demand with the use of Life Cycle matrix and Social Status Matrix. The result is based on field survey and National census data (1980-2000) of Johor Bahru City in Malaysia.
Battle, Darren, and Ben Sanderson. "The impact of EU accession on central European property markets: some lessons from the past." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper considers the implications of joining the EU and subsequently joining EMU for the commercial property markets of central Europe. Using previously unexploited European property data the impact of EU accession and both the run-up to EMU and the first two years of the single currency are considered for property markets on the periphery of the geographical core of Europe with similar characteristics to those of central Europe. This approach allows an attempt to consider the implications of EU and EMU entry for those developing property markets that have the aim of joining the EU and the euro-zone over the medium term.
Lopes, Jorge. "The impact of the Economic and Monetary Union on the Housing market." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The housing market in Portugal has notched up a remarkable growth since the early 1990s, in line with the development pattern of the overall construction market. The new residential housing sub-segment has been the one that experienced the highest growth in this period. One of the catalysts of the impressive outcome in this segment of the construction market was the transformation operated in the financial system, which intended to be consistent with the process of European convergence. However, in the last two years the pattern has shown signs of flagging owing to excess supply, particularly in the owner-occupied housing tenure. This paper discusses the impact of the Economic and Monetary Union- EMU on the housing market. Secondly, it analyses the development of the housing market from the early 1990s. Finally it suggests ways to tackle the unfavourable conditions pertinent to the housing market, namely the new residential housing sub-segment. The paper argues that in order to face the demands of the Economic and Monetary Union, policy changes pertaining to the housing market and related economic sectors are needed.
Horkijk, Aart. "The impact of valuation rules on the quality of valuations in the ROZ/IPD index in the Netherlands." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The paper will focus on the valuation rules which were established at the start of the ROZ/IPD property index, the inprovement of the valuation rules afterwards and the reasons why ( ao quality control ). The paper will also show the differences between internal and external valuations, between dcf and income capitalisation valuations, as far as differences in frequency, discount rates, yields, rental growth etc are concerned and in what way these differences developed over time between 1995 and 2001. The last part of the paper will analyse the differences between the actual sale price and the latest valuation of transactions from 1995 through 2001.
Tsolacos, Sotiris. "The Information Content of the Yield Curve for Predicting Future Property Performance." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Empirical research has established the close relationship between economic conditions and property market activity. This work has provided evidence on the economic and financial indicators that can provide early signals for the direction of property rents, capital values and returns. The present paper seeks evidence on the usefulness of the yield curve or the term structure of interest rates as an additional indicator that provides signals for the future performance of the property sector. Applied economists have long regarded the yield curve as a predictor of economic activity. Given the significance of this indicator to predict economic activity this study examines the information content of the yield curve for future property market performance in the UK. The paper initially provides the stylised facts of the linkages between the wider economy and property performance. Subsequently, it explains the relationship between the term structure of interest rates, economic activity and the property market. The empirical investigation to accomplish the main objective of the paper makes use of non-parametric tests and econometric analysis. It pays particular attention to out of sample forecast performance of models that include the term structure of interest rates. Finally an evaluation is made as to whether this indicator is useful in predicting the future course of property performance.
De Greef, Johan H.. "The Institutional Analysis of Real Estate Markets: The Economic Value of Land." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Over the last century, the discipline of economics has witnessed the adoption of the so-called ëinstitutional approachí. More recently, the ìoldî institutional economics (Veblen, Commons, Mitchell) is being distinguished from the ìnewî institutional economics (Coase, North, Williamson). Within this context, it is important to ask whether the institutional approach is offering anything fundamentally new to economic methodology, or whether this approach has simply broadened the scope of economics in order to enlarge its explanatory power. Although there is awareness within the study of economics that it is neglecting the social structures, it is clear that the discipline has not been able to incorporate these structures into itself. What is missing within institutional economics, above all, is a unifying set of principles, and this absence indicates a methodical problem. In this paper I propose to establish the methodical incompleteness of the institutional approach in economic theory on the basis of the philosophy of H. Dooyeweerd (1894-1977). As I see it, the fundamental problem of institutional economics has been that it has not recognized that economic norms must be connected with the structures of individuality. Basing my argument on Dooyeweerdís ìnew theoretical thoughtî (1953-58), I propose a number of sociological principles upon which to base a relationship between economic norms and the structures of individuality. After establishing these sociological principles, I apply them to the question of the economic value of land. At present, it is the so-called ëresidual methodí which is primarily used to reckon the economic value of land or as the case may be the market price of land. This method is essentially based on Ricardoís differential land-rent theory. The starting point of the modern approach is that the total residual value of the production-column will settle at the bottom. Thus in the process of establishing a price, the production factor of the land is considered to appropriate the residual value. Nevertheless, empirical analysis suggests that the residual value is being divided among a number of different production factors. The question then arises as to whether there is a conceptual paradox within the present method of land valuation. I propose that this paradox can be overcome by taking into account the sociological principles that lead to the emergence of the different social meanings of land. When this emergence is understood, it becomes clear that there are a number of different norms of economic valuation. Once these emergence and norms are properly taken into account, a more consistent methodology of land valuation can be established.
Eves, Chris. "The Long Term Impact of Flooding on Residential Property Values." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Current planning schemes in Australia identify areas that are potentially flood liable. This identification of flood liable land is based on flood height levels over time. Throughout New South Wales this measure of flood affectation is determined by three classifications. These classifications also influence the development of residential property within these flood areas. Prospective purchasers are advised of this flood zoning when a full title search is carried out. However, as these properties are often located on the flood plain, and not within sight of the river, flooding can appear visually remote to the uninformed buyer. This study will analyse residential house sales in flood prone areas and compare price movements of these houses to similar houses in immediate adjoining areas that are not effected by flooding. The analysis will cover the period of 1984 to 1998. This period includes the last major floods in Sydney during 1988. This study period will determine what impact a major flood has on residential housing prices and whether this effect is on-going or decreases the longer the area is flood free.
Iman, Abdul Hamid Mar. "The Macroeconomic perspective of demand-supply gap and prices of condominiums in Kuala Lumpur." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The reality of a property market, among other things, is characterised by variation in demand-supply gap. A property market is also likely to exhibit variation in prices of properties. While the actual causes of demand-supply gap and price variations are by no means definite, the economic theory allows some hypotheses to be made against the possible factors responsible for these phenomena. Given the set of such factors from a macro perspective, one may be curious to know whether they influence variation in demand-supply gap more than variation in prices, or vice versa. This paper aimed at addressing this issue by taking condominium property sub market in Kuala Lumpur as a case study. Two time-series regression models were estimated taking five macroeconomic factors as the explanatory variables against demand-supply gap and condominium prices as dependent variables. The results have shown that base lending rate, gross domestic product, consumer price index, unemployment, and changes in construction cost have caused more variation in condominium demand-supply gap than in condominium prices. Other impacts have also been compared and it was found that these macroeconomic factors were more important to changes in the demand-supply situations. The policy implication of this finding was that, if there is anything at all that the government will do to improve Malaysian property market, then, it is perhaps more meaningful to correct demand and supply situations than to tackle price issues.
Dárcy, Éamonn, and Geoffrey Keogh. "The Market Context of Development Activity." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper exarnines property development from an institutional economics perspective. The main focus is the property market as an institution, i.e. as a set of formal and informal rules goveming the behavior of diverse property market actors. Based on previous work by the authors, development is explored in the context of an institutional hierarchy in which three main levels can be identified. In this frarnework, property development is a property market activity involving the participation of a variety of property market actors ( eg landowners, developers, planners, construction companies, financial institutions, etc). Using the British office market as a case study, the chapter examines the changing institutional context of office development over the last 50 years. During that period the broad institutional environment has changed significantly in terms of the prevailing economic, social and political conditions, and the behavioral assumptions they give rise to. Reflecting those changes, the property market, including the supply of new property through the development process, has also been transformed. The way in which the property market delivers and transacts new property has changed, for example as development activity has become more or less speculative. The nature of the actors involved in development has changed, for exarnple as financial institutions have become more or less involved in direct development, or as property companies have switched between development for investment clients and development for their own portfolio purposes. This paper attempts to explain these institutional changes and their impact on development activity, addressing directly the 'institutional factors', which are largely unexplained in conventional quantitative models of property development. The result is an explicit treatment of 'property market process' as a mediator of economic change.
Kostjuchenko, Valentin, and Nikolai Siniak. "The new stage of real estate education in Belarus." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. A new Faculty of real estate management is opened in a leading university of Belarus - Belarusian State University. On September 1st, 2000 the Faculty welcomed students after school and people who have a high education. There are daytime and correspondence education. We have a great demand from people who wanted to study post-graduate course but there is not experience in the field of real estate education in our country. Faculty needs help from European universities. There is strong demand on real estate managers with high education from all sectors of the construction, real estate and financial world. But educational system of Belarus didnít offer such specialists. More over we have two Ministries: The Ministry of housing-municipal services and the Ministry on management of state property and privatization. No one studied specialists for them. And only now the situation is changed. But we have a lot of others problems in real estate education. They are fallowing.
McCann, Philip, and Charles Ward. "The Optimal Length of Industrial and Commercial Leases: Pricing and Welfare Implications." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Industrial or commercial tenancies incur costs to the tenant which are both directly and inversely related to the length of the tenancy. From optimisation theory, the result of this is that there is a unique optimum tenancy length for each tenant at each location, and tenants will be willing to pay rental premiums in order to ensure tenancies are close to their particular optimum lengths. The existence of an institutional standard lease length therefore imposes welfare costs on society, and the level of these welfare costs depends on the extent to which the institutional lease length differs from the market optimum. Moreover, for each lease length there will be a different current market price and by implication, a different growth trajectory.
Fisher, Peter, Vitor dos Santos Reis, Antonio Fernandes, and Marylou Downie. "The practice of real estate valuation in Portugal." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The character of the valuation services offered and their use by clients directly affects the pricing of property assets and the conduct of property markets. More widely, valuation services can affect personal and company finance, banking and investment, investment from overseas the development and construction industries. Poor valuation practice, especially for loan security, has been implicated in property booms leading to unsustainable lending contributing to recession (e.g.UK) or currency crises (e.g.Thailand). Traditional valuation practices vary across the member states of the European Union and in Portugal a wide and confusing range of legal and professional codes cover the service. As in many countries, Portuguese practice appears to be divided between traditional approaches and those adopted by the recent influx of international consultants. Research collaboration between Portugal and the UK is investigating links between valuation practice, business finance and the wider economy. This paper presents the results of a survey of Portuguese valuers conducted with the co-operation of the Portuguese Association of Engineer Valuers (APAE), the leading national professional body covering property valuation. 300 questionnaire forms were distributed to valuers attending the annual APAE conference in November 2000, from which 150 useable responses were obtained. The issues covered by the survey include; requirements for valuations; clients and their instructions; legal and professional codes; concepts of value; methodologies; data sources; education and training. Analysis of the survey returns is currently underway but early indications are that more respondents now tend to capital comparison, rather than cost based methods. Valuers however have limited access to transaction evidence. The paper will present the survey findings and discuss their implications. This paper will be the first ever objective record of valuation services in Portugal and will contribute to the greater understanding of existing valuation practice across Europe.
Huber, Andreas. "The Precarious Situation of Residential Homes for European Retirees on the Costa Blanca (Alicante)." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Since the seventies we can observe an increasing propensity of many European older people to retire to southern Europe. Besides Tuscany, Malta, the Algarve, the Costa del Sol, the Canary and the Balearic Islands the Costa Blanca is one of the most demanded regions for the so-called international retirement migration. It is an undeniable fact that the number of older people will increase in the coming years. The municipalities on the Costa Blanca, with a big proportion of European jubilees, are in a special situation: not only they have to find solutions for their own citizens but also for a bigger part of the older immigrants from Europe. As not all of the expatriate retirees can or will return when they become seriously ill they need sooner or later a place in a nursing respectively old peopleís home. The objectives of this paper are on the one hand to present statistical data regarding to European residents on the Costa Blanca and on the other hand to know the actual supply of residential homes in this region. The aim is to dispose information that allows map out specific strategies and programs of intervention for these cohorts of older people.
Dunne, Tom. "The Private Rented Sector, Sacrificed for Home Ownership." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The private rented residential sector is crucial to the satisfactory operation of housing markets in European countries. It provides ready access to suitable accommodation on favourable terms, often without the necessity of a significant capital requirement. The Republic of Ireland is distinguished by having a very large owner-occupied sector at about 80% of households with the private rented sector amounting to just 11%. In recent years rapid economic development in Ireland has resulted in significant constraints emerging to the availability of accommodation generally, particularly in the private rented residential sector. Moreover, demand for labour in a rapidly growing economy is enlarging the requirement for accessible accommodation on terms that suit the increasingly dynamic population. This has given rise to considerable policy interest and debate about the role of the sector, the means whereby it should be regulated and, critically, the need to provide readily accessible and affordable accommodation for a more mobile population. Reflecting this the Irish government established a commission on the sector in 1999 to consider a wide range of the issues involved including affordability, security of tenure and investment incentives and returns. This reported in July 2000. Against the background of the report of the commission this paper commences by exploring the current state of the housing market and, in particular, the private rented residential sector. Second, there is a brief examination of the effects of past policies. Third, the paper considers policy options put forward to develop the sector; these include the means whereby additional resources could be attracted for investment, measures to regulate the landlord and tenant relationship and issues surrounding security of tenure and rent regulation. Finally, the paper considers difficulties of implementing policy options in the context of the existing tax regime and concludes that the dominant constraint on the development of the sector is the tax treatment of owner-occupied housing.
Clar, Antonio J. Jimenez. "The Real Estate Information : A way to standardization." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The availability of exact information on real estate property assets is necessary for several reasons: a) The spatial location of real estate properties leads to the fragmentation of the real estate sector into an aggregate of markets. In such markets, the lack of exact information on the real properties composing them acts as a barrier to entry that may have negative effects on demand. In this respect, the adoption of common criteria for the description and valuation of the real estate properties would play an essential role in order to overcome the barriers stemming from the geographical location of real estate properties. b) The standardisation of information on real estate properties is also necessary for the globalisation and mobility of demand within the real estate sector, as a result of the increasing geographical disconnection between the property required and the residence of the property seeker. We can clearly see this situation in areas of strong supply/demand for properties, of a tourist nature or for elder people, who choose countries different from their countries of origin to reside in. The study analyses the different description and identification systems of real estate properties in different countries, looking for the necessary connections in order to achieve a unification of criteria. In that respect, the creation of an international property record, which allows a quick exchange of information on real estate properties, is suggested.
Li, Lanfen. "The Relationship between National Economy and Real Estate's Investment Scale in China." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Since real estate is an important industry in national economy, there exists close relationship between them. In some developed country, real estate has always been titled Ñweatherglassì. It influences the national economyís continued development, conversely, national economy influences real estate in many sides, such as development level, speed, scale and cycle fluctuationís amplitude, frequency etc. This paper make quantitative and qualitative analysis about the relationship between national economy and real estateís investment scale in China.
Lee, Stephen L.. "The Relative Importance of Sector and Regional Factors in Real Estate Returns." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper presents an elegant and simple approach to the decomposition of sector and regional influences on property returns, and thus provides a quantitative framework for analysing the relative impact of these two diversification categories to real estate portfolio selection. Using data on Retail, Office and Industrial properties spread across 326 real estate locations in the UK, over the period 1981 to 1995, the results show that the performance of real estate is largely sector-driven, a result in line with previous work. Which implies that the sector composition of the real estate fund should be the first level of analysis in constructing and managing the real estate portfolio. As a consequence real estate fund managers need to pay more attention to the sector allocation of their portfolios than the regional spread.
Tsai-Chu, Wu. "The Role of Government in the Real Estate Market: Some Observations from the Experiences of Taiwan." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The purpose of this study is to explore the appropriate role for government when the real estate market fails to work efficiently, and to discuss based on previous experiences of Taiwan how effectiveness of the governmentís intervention was. When there is a market failure, many will expect the government intervention. However they often ignore the accompanying intervention costs that may induce government failure. The paper first reviews the theoretical rationale for government intervention in a market failure and then proposes a conceptual structure, based on the New Institutional Economics theory, of the appropriate role of government in the real estate market to minimize the costs generated from market failure and government failure. The proposed theory is verified by the empirical example of Taiwanís real estate market experiences during the three abnormal price fluctuations in 1974,1980, and 1988. The methods and extents of government interventions in these three crises are examined to understand whether they hinder or facilitate the efficient allocation of resources in the real estate market and whether the interventions promote the economic growth. Finally a summary and conclusion of this study is given.
Kooymans, Rob, and Megan Walters. "The Social Dimension of the Relationship Between Corporate Real Estate Executives and Outsource Service Providers." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Outsourcing of corporate real estate management is a long-established practice in the United States and, to a lesser extent, in Europe, Asia and Australia. While the imperatives for outsourcing have been widely studied, there has been little research into the nature of the working relationship between the corporate real estate unit and the outsource provider of CRE management services. Contracts are in general incomplete, due to the contracting partiesí inability to specify ex ante all outcomes ex post. Outsourcing contracts are more incomplete than most due to their on- going relational nature. In the event of an uncertain event, social mechanisms such as trust, commitment and co-operation may have to over-ride the contract to ensure the continuance of the relationship. This paper discusses the existence and importance of the social dimension of contract relationships in outsourcing. It concludes that there are important implications for the effectiveness of corporate real estate outsourcing contracts, especially where the number of service providers within the market is small.
Lee, Yung-Lung, Kwang-Yi Yeh, and Tzung-Cheng Huang. "The Tourism Development and Property Market in Historical Area- Evidence of Tainan City." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The property markets in a traditional cultural city are difficult to develop by market mechanism. It is important to make a balance between urban development and tradition conservation in a fast growing cultural city. Tainan City located in the southern part of Taiwan is the earliest developed district. There are affluent cultural assets around the city and are meaningful for all residents. And we would like to take a clear look at the effects of all the cultural assets, especially regarding to tourism resources and utilization value. This research tries to evaluate the urban development with cultural assets in Tainan City in terms of tourism development procedure. In order to find the external effects of the tourism development and local property markets vitalization in historical area, the factor and discrimant analysis methods are applied with a questionnaire survey from the tourists and neighboring residents near these cultural assets. All the results will be took into considerations and referred as the policy for cultural assets development and local property market vitalization in historical area. We further try to measure the value of cultural asset tourism development integrated with the consumer surplus function. In order to compare with the existing property market development we introduce the hedonic model to estimate the effects of the cultural assets on the property market price. Comparing these research findings, we can investigate the situations where Tainan City has acted as a cultural city and the way ahead considering the tourism development and local property market policy implications.
Anglin, Paul, Ronald Rutherford, and Thomas Springer. "The Trade-off Between the Selling Price of Residential Properties and Time -on-the-Market: The impact of the Price Setting." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. When a house is placed on the market, the seller must choose a ìlistî or ìaskingî price. While there is near universal agreement that a house seller faces a trade off in choosing this price, there is less agreement about how to measure this trade off. This paper offers a model based on the idea of managing risks and a trade off between the expected sale price and the expected time-till-sale. We show that this model produces an optimal decision rule as a function of the state of the market and the characteristics of the seller. We predict that a higher list price increases expected time-till-sale. The theory also predicts that, since house buyers must solve a signal extraction problem when deciding which houses to inspect, the effect of a higher list price is magnified for houses with a low predicted variance of the list price. Using a data set with 3874 observations from Texas, we test these hypotheses using a hazard model based on a Weibull model with gamma correction for unobserved heterogeneity. The proposed methodology differs from the most common method (two-stage least squares as used by, for example, Yavas and Yang, REE, 1995) and is closer to Glower, Haurin and Hendershott (REE, 1998). We estimate the effect of changes in list price on the time-till-sale (TTS) using what can be likened to a reduced form model. This paper does not attempt to predict the sale price because our model implies that this data set, like all previously used data sets, would be contaminated by omitted variables that have a nearly equal effect on the list price and the sale price. Our analysis shows that few of the characteristics of the house significantly affect the expected time on market while various indicators of market conditions do affect TTS. Our paper demonstrates the value of recognizing censoring in the data. Censoring reduces the information contained in duration data and its effect has only been considered by one other paper (Kalra and Chan, JRER, 1994). Approximately 40 percent of listings in our data set do not result in a house sale and our theory is sufficiently general that it can be used to analyse the behaviour of such sellers. We show that the list prices of unsold listings have a higher mean and higher variance than listings where the house sold. We demonstrate that the change in estimation methodology affects the magnitude and significance of the estimated coefficients.
Hutchinson, Norman E., Alastair Adair, and Jim Burgess. "The valuation of urban regeneration land: A contemporary perspective." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001.

A fundamental element of UK urban policy, as outlined in the Urban White Paper, is the redevelopment of inner city land (DETR, 2000). However the valuation of urban regeneration land, in connection with grant funding, is said to be one of the most vexed issues in the appraisal of projects (Beattie, 1991). This is due to a lack of transparency across valuation and property data in urban regeneration markets, shortcomings in traditional valuation methodologies (Adams et al, 1985) and complexities of public sector grant procedures. The lack of transparency in urban regeneration property markets means that it is often difficult to assess the appropriate input data into the appraisal. The value of land for development is normally estimated by the use of the comparative method or the residual approach. Guidance Note 17 in the RICS Red Book outlines the approach to a residual calculation in which the expected development cost to create the scheme is subtracted from the expected capital value on completion of the project in order to derive the expected profit. The authors were funded by the RICS Education Trust to investigate current practice in the application of Guidance Note 17. The aim of the research was to examine the bases of valuation, availability and utilisation of data, reporting of the valuation in terms of a single point estimate or a range of values and the management of risk within the valuation process. In addition the research also considered the appraisal guidelines outlined in HM Treasury Green Book. The paper reports the findings of a survey of valuers from leading practices throughout the UK, bank lenders who commission the valuations and developers who rely on valuations in terms of purchasing and selling brownfield sites. In addition an example of a valuation of an urban regeneration site is included in order to highlight the key issues within the discussion.

Lee, Stephen L., and Simon Stevenson. "Time Weighted Portfolio Optimisation." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001.

In estimating the inputs into the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) portfolio optimisation problem it is usual to use equal weighted historic data. Equal weighting of the data, however, does not take account of the current state of the market. Consequently this approach is unlikely to perform well in any subsequent period as the data is still reflecting market conditions that are no longer valid. The need for some return-weighting scheme that gives greater weight to the most recent data would seem desirable. Consequently this study uses returns data which are weighted to give greater weight to the most recent observations to see if such a weighting scheme can offer improved ex ante performance over that based on un-weighted data.

Luithlen, Lutz. "To serve our private ends. Private banking and direct investment in real estate." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. With the meteoric rise of private wealth world wide, and the recent downturn of high tech stocks, direct investment in real estate has become an increasingly attractive proposition for high net worth investors. Private banks have set up ëfamily officesí and many investment banks have branched out into the lucrative business of catering for private clients. The paper investigates how these institutions, generally not familiar with property as a financial asset, accommodate this trend. Two questions are of particular interest: (1) the degree to which property related advisory services are organised by specialist in-house teams as opposed to being outsourced to independent advisors, and (2) the nature of advice given to private investors, families and syndicates of investors. The study relies predominantly on a postal survey sent to a sample of private banks and investment banks in Europe. The findings show that direct property is a business different from indirect investment vehicles and is either eschewed altogether or treated as a service which requires the combination of in-house expertise with a flexible network of independent advisors and agents associate with particular markets.
Parlasca, Peter. "Transeuropean Networks: The European approach to promote modern infrastructure." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. I would like to make a presentation on Transeuropean Networks (TENs) . They include networks of all transport modes (rail, roads, ports and airports). Famous infrastructure projects like the channel tunnel (GB/F) or the Oeresund bridge (DK/SW) are part of this network. There is also a TEN-T budget on the European level, which provides funding for some projects. The European Investment Bank (EIB) is also an important player in financing infrastructure.
Wrigley, Mike. "Transport Policy and Property Values." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Transport and environmental policy in the European Union and within the UK is increasingly concerned with the harmful effects of traffic. Stringent controls on car use in particular are being proposed and implemented. In the UK, for example, these controls include the exclusion of cars from certain streets and areas, road pricing and taxing of workplace parking. These restrictions must be implemented in parallel with investment in public transport in order to maintain levels of accessibility. Accessibility is a key determinant in the location decisions for a range of land uses. There is growing interest among policy-makers in how transport policy and the general rise in traffic congestion may affect land and property values by altering the pattern of accessibility in terms of transport mode, infrastructure provision and cost. In terms of transport influence on land and property values, new transport infrastructure may increase residential property values due to improved accessibility and increase commercial property values due to improved accessibility and possible agglomeration benefits. Previous research has suggested that lower transport costs will result in higher land and property values. This may be a reasonable hypothesis when considering an individual piece of infrastructure but may not be valid if the project has a significant impact on transport costs/accessibility in the city/region as a whole. Other research has shown that new transport infrastructure may shift values rather than increase aggregate land value. Therefore, the potential for redistribution of land and property values is a key issue. Furthermore, investment in public transport is being promoted as a positive means of tackling traffic congestion. Therefore, another key issue is whether the characteristics of the improved accessibility that will come from better public transport is equal or better to the accessibility that is lost due to increasing restraint on other modes as measured in terms of property values. Research at the University of the West of England, Bristol, UK is determining whether there is a relationship between investment in transport infrastructure and land and property values. Current research is establishing a methodology that will attempt to identify a relationship between accessibility and land and property value. In doing so it will be necessary to look for a relationship at the city/region level and at the local level. This will capture any relative shifts in values across the city/region as well as any absolute shifts in values near the transport improvement itself. This paper will present the findings of the literature review undertaken as part of the research project which examines academic literature, official publications from central and local government and published reports by transport consultants relating to infrastructure investment, property value and land use change. Specifically the review; / considers the emerging transport framework and its potential impact on the property market, / examines the classical theories of the relationship between the location of urban land uses and values, / provides a critique of empirical urban rent and price determination studies with an emphasis on studies of locational influences on property values and transport influences on property values in particular, and / examines techniques used to assess new public transport investment and identify any consideration of land and property values in these techniques. The paper will then outline the methodology of the study devised to link an urban rent determination model to an accessibility model. This will test whether there is a relationship between accessibility and land and property value and whether it is robust enough to handle significant changes in accessibility patterns.
Trutnev, Edward K.. "Urban Land-use Legislation in a Post- Socialistic Period. Example of Russia." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. At this time Russia along with other countries formed in the territory of the former Soviet Union is undergoing the difficult transition from socialism which negated market-based relations to a system built on these very relations. This report describes specific aspects of this transition with respect to land-use legislation an town-planning. First of all, one should understand that until recently Russia had no land-use legislation and did not need such legislation. The reasons for this seemingly paradoxical situation are simple. For a long time all land was owned by the state. A solitary owner does not need laws, because these laws regulate the relations of different and equal parties. The state acted as one ìsupremeî ruler and thus relations in connection with land use had the nature of orders and subordination. This arrangement did not need any laws and was based solely on administrative command methods. Decisions took the form of multiple government resolutions, departmental instructions, norms and orders but not a single law on land use was in place. With the appearance of a variety of land owners, including local governments and private individuals, the need for land-use laws became necessary. The first town-planning law was passed in 1992 to be later succeeded by the Town-Planning Code of the Russian Federation in 1997. Currently, several draft laws in this area are being reviewed. Analysis of the current transition phase shows that the central problem is a conflict between understanding and interests: understanding what should be done and how to do implement efficient reforms in the interest of the entire society, and the narrow departmental interests of administrations which attempt to preserve and expand their authority and thus block and distort the essence of reforms.
Domingos, Emília Maria Delg, and Antunes Malcata Rebelo. "Urban Strategic Gapís measurement through geographic information systems." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. In this paper it is proposed that geographic information systems should be used to support decisions about urban management, development and qualification. The goal of the paper (which is based upon a project I am presently developing in Oporto University), stands upon the establishment of a real estate price level function, which depends upon the accessibility to polarized urban zones, among other variables. The GIS assessment of this subject looks forward to give an analysis tool that supports urban decisions. The permanent updating of information through this tool allows the implementation of policies longing to promote high quality standards of urban life. The paper begins by the theoretical analysis of real estate policies, particularly in what concerns urban polarized centres. Then it is established an econometric model that explains how real estate prices are dependent upon the space and time accessibility to a polar zone, the activities distribution, temporal inertia of activities, and public investments. This model, which is presently being applied to the Oporto city, in Portugal, with successful results, reveals high potential to evaluate the consequences of urban policies, and is adaptable to other cities in polarized urban regions, but it needs to be permanently feed and controlled through the updating of basic information, so it is proposed the establishment of an observatory with a certain number of observable variables (such as spatial activities distribution, temporal inertia of activities, and public investments). Adopting an appropriate way of representing each of these variables in the town map, the process described may also be used to support the corresponding fields¥strategic gap¥s decisions.
Mougel, Catherine. "Using a real estate broker as a way of signalling the quality of a house." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001.

Using game theory and more specifically a signalling game, we draw a general model which help us to study the bargaining step of a real estate transaction. In our game, the two players are aseller and a buyer, which bargain over the transaction price of a house. Information is not symmetric, Thus, the seller has private information about the good that he wants to sell. The buyer is not a real estate professional and doesnít know the true quality of the real estate good. In our game, the house can be ëfoodí or ëbadí. Only the seller can contract with a broker. This real estate broker is not really a player but he can be used by the seller as a signal of quality. The seller knowing the quality of his house, can directly propose a transaction price to the buyer or can delegate it to the broker. Thus the buyer can choose to accept or to refuse the price without knowing the quality of the house. This buyer can only observe if the seller or the broker proposes the price.

It’S Better For The Seller To Use A Broker. However, Mixed Strategy), Separating, The Best Solution For The Seller Is To Sell Himself. The Next Step Of This Paper Is To Compare The Results Of The Game With Data Of Our Regional Real Estate Transactions Market., We Consider 3 Case Studies. They Deal With The Quality Of Houses In A Same Residential Area. Thus, We Find The General Conditions To Follow. To Study Different Situations, We Study The Different Equilibriums Of This Game.

Nappi-Choulet, Ingrid, and Ingmar Gehrke. "Using a System Dynamics Model for valuing Corporate Real Estate Strategies." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Since Rappaportís publication (1) many studies have been published and much empirical research has been done to provide a deeper understanding on how companies can create superior long term value for their shareholders (2). In order to align internal goals with the maximization of shareholder value advocates of that approach claim to use economic value measures such as Economic Value added (EVA) or Cashflow Return on Investment (CFROI) as organizationís primary objectives (3), (4) thus insuring goal congruence between the principal and the agent. Management of Corporate Real Erstate as an important part of a Corporate Asset Management is expected to increase shareholder returns since optimization of the firms property positively affects future cashflows by highering revenues and lowering operational and capital costs as well as investments requirements (5). Some authors recently tried to define financial and operational ìproperty value driversî by identifying the specific actions or factors that cause property costs to arise or poperty revenues and investments to change (6). Specific strategies (e.g. outsourcing) and organizational designs (e.g. centralization of the firms property function) are suggested to achieve shareholder value objectives in that particular field. Prior research work is implicitely based on a simple linear structure of non financial value drivers that affect financial value drivers in order to interpret straightforward the shareholder value impact of different property strategies. However this shareholder value framework a) lacks in explicitly integrating external environmental factors such as property market features (office cycles, setting up strategies, size of the property markets, etc.) (7) b) fails in showing interactions among the independent contingent factors (e.g. size of the company, property value) and the dependent decision variables (e.g. scope of outsourcing, facility management), c) ignores dynamic aspects that are suppose to exist in a highly interdependent system and d) neglects stakeholders impact of any property strategy. Also all these previous aspects are not taken into account in standard textbooks on real estate management that are covering the valuation issue (8). Preceding arguments are giving rational to analyze the impact of the firm property strategy on value by using a dynamics system model based on Forresterís approach (9). The paper will be divided into three parts. The first part deals with the features of both the firm property environment and the commercial real estate markets. The second part presents the different variables to consider and the influences and interactions between them. Finally, we both try in the last part to examine the dynamic interrelated processes between property strategies and value implications using the system dynamics method and to offer suggestion for future research on this framework.
Brau, James C., and Andrew Holmes. "Using REITs to Extricate the Effect of Managerial Signalling in Open Market Share Repurchase Announcements." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper explores the effect of stock repurchase announcements on equity returns for publicly traded real estate investment trusts. The study of share repurchases in the context of real estate investment trusts provides a novel opportunity to disentangle the impact of competing theories for the abnormal returns observed around repurchase announcements. Prior literature advances six hypotheses to explain the stock price reaction associated with repurchases. The unique institutional attributes of real estate investment trusts negate the economic logic sustaining all of the hypotheses except the managerial signaling hypothesis. Hence, we are able to focus exclusively on assessing the impact of managerial signaling. After controlling for relevant economic variables, we provide evidence for the efficacy of the managerial signaling hypothesis in the context of open market share repurchases.
Guagliardi, Jose Augusto, and Naya Gomes Correa. "Using the marketing concept to adapt apartment building to consumer's need." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This abstract express a syntesis of a research done in a city of the interior of the state of s„o paulo , brazil , which dealt with the adaptation of a apartment building planned to satisfy needs of potentials consumerís living around. A quantitative research was performed in order to identify what were the desires of a group of consumers with respect to what they expected having within an apartment building. The results of the research gave the construct company management the parameters to follow in order to match consumerís expectations and company offerings.
Addae-Dapaah, Kwame. "Valuation Accuracy - A Problematic Enquiry." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Criticisms from within and without the appraisal fraternity have led to a quest for ìaccurateî valuations. Studies that hitherto have been done on the issue have given conflicting results. While some studies (e.g. Drivers Jonas/IPD, 1988, 1990, 1992 & 1997; Brown 1985 & 1992) have found valuations to be ìaccurateî, others (e.g. Hager and Lord, 1985; Lizieri and Venmore-Roland, 1991) give contrary conclusions. Those who question the accuracy of valuations have used statistical methods to prove valuation error, bias, etc. Using existing criteria for measuring valuation ìaccuracyî, and data from Singapore, this paper replicates the finding of valuation error, bias, etc to some extent. However, it is argued both theoretically and empirically (with examples where possible) that the criteria for determining ìaccuracyî is highly questionable consequent on which the valuation error, bias, etc conclusion could be seriously flawed. The paper concludes that in view of the appraisal foundations, theory of value, and the nature of the property market, it may be more rewarding to concentrate on ways and means of reducing valuation variation. It is cautioned, however, that the resulting reduction may be very moderate.
Connellan, Owen, Frances Plimmer, and William McCluskey. "Valuation Banding- An International Property Tax Solution?" In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Since 1993 Britain has used a ëbandedí property tax as opposed to discrete values for the assessment of residential property. The expressed views of the British Government on its operational worth as a means of assessing and administering a residential property tax are examined and the possibilities of reviewing and revaluating the tax base are explored. In summary, the purpose of this paper is to present findings on the operation of this unique system highlighting strengths and weaknesses and its viability/applicability in other countries and jurisdictions. Initially the paper provides an empirical analysis demonstrating a number of the operational advantages and disadvantages of the system. This aspect will focus on equity issues, effective tax rate analysis and a number of administrative aspects/concerns. Since the initiatory research work was completed the research team has been afforded access to domestic property survey data in Britain as part of a new pilot project it is conducting in conjunction with the Inland Revenue Valuation Office Agency (IRVOA). This body is charged by the UK Government with the responsibility of valuing (inter alia) all real property for local and central taxation purposes. The additional data thus provided affords the opportunity for a larger geographical area of study and the paper will present these analytical findings. The paper concludes by drawing together recommendations in relation to how the system can be improved; does it represent a fair and equitable alternative approach to discrete value based systems? This part of the paper will examine the potential for such a system in other jurisdictions particularly where resources are limited in terms of experienced appraisers, availability of technology and tradition of applying ad valorem taxation. In addition, there is the opportunity to take advantage of the available technology of mass appraisal. For domestic property taxation this could entail a discrete valuation process, easily subsumable into banded allocations as and if required under the extant banded property tax system, with the added opportunity of frequent updating at minimised cost and effort.
Kirkwood, John S., and Madeleine Freewood. "Web based Learning in real estate education and practice." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. This paper will examine the use of web-based learning within real estate education using a case study approach. This will focus on the experience of final year students on the real estate programme at Sheffield Hallam University. Within the School of Environment and Development's (SED) real estate programme ( the Development Practice Unit is delivered with integral website support ( Research assistants from the universityís Learning and Teaching Institute (LTI) were commissioned to evaluate the student experience of the resource. This paper reports on those findings and other web-based learning experience.
Arauzo, Josep Maria, and Miquel Manjón. "Where do they locate? Firm size and Industrial Location." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Most of economic literature about industrial location patterns donít consider entrant firm size as an explanatory variable of this phenomenon. Nevertheless, empirical research have shown that bigger firms are heavily influenced by economic variables of the cities where they are going to be located (skilled labour, land rent, etc), while smaller firms react to variables related with personal circumstances of the entrepreneur. We contrast this empirical evidence for Catalan cities between the years 1986 and 1996. A conditional logit model is used for test the probability that a city is being chosen by a firm.
d'Amato, Maurizio. "Within Real Estate Portfolio. Diversification through Rough Set Theory." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. The work explore the opportunity to define a real property asset through rough set analysis proposed by Pawlak (Pawlak,1982). The methodology has been applied to property appraisal (díAmato,2000) obtaining interesting results , especially in mass appraisal. The procedure seems to be interesting in those markets where information is not easy to find because of ìallows the data to speak for themselvesî. The work is organized as follow, after a brief introduction, the first paragraph will offer a literature review concerning ìwithin real estateî diversification technique. In the second paragraph there will be a brief introduction to rough set analysis and an application. Final remarks will conclude the work.
Nieto, Fernando Paz y Puen. "…tica Inmobiliaria." In 8th European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Alicante, Spain, 2001. Toda actividad comercial debe de regular su forma de actuaciÛn para propiciar su sano desarrollo, la Ètica comercial es el resultado del ejercicio de esta actividad dentro de un marco de valores que cualifican la actuaciÛn, cuando esta actuaciÛn se convierte en paradigm·tica de una forma de comportamiento se vuelve deseable para los miembros del grupo social que participa y esto establece la norma Ètica como prototipo del deber ser para esa actividad en particular. La Ètica comercial por lo tanto se forma por la pr·ctica de una serie de formas de comportamiento que se han hecho deseables por la sociedad, que propician su sano desarrollo y se fundamenta en una serie de valores morales que le proporcionan su fundamento. La Ètica no tiene que ver con la religiÛn o credo que practiquen los integrantes de un grupo social determinado, tiene que ver con los valores esenciales del ser humano y con la forma como estas personas viven la vida y en este caso como ejercen su actividad comercial, son normas de comportamiento no escritas pero que deben ser respetadas por todos los integrantes del grupo social que se interrelaciona. El que infringe las normas Èticas se ve repudiado por el grupo social, y el respeto a las mismas para el que las cumple, le da una autoridad moral y una cualificaciÛn de calidad ante el grupo social al que pertenece. ⁄nicamente las normas Èticas permiten a falta de normas de car·cter legal, que la sociedad logre un desarrollo armÛnico. La actuaciÛn Ètica es el comportamiento deseable. La profesiÛn inmobiliaria es la actividad dentro del campo de los Bienes RaÌces, constituidos por la tierra y las edificaciones que en ella se realizan, aunada a todos los derechos y obligaciones que conllevan que nos permite planear, desarrollar, financiar, enajenar, arrendar, etc. con objeto de obtener una utilidad legÌtima. Esta actividad se rige por las leyes de la oferta y la demanda, y se puede desarrollar mediante la pr·ctica de la prestaciÛn de servicios profesionales, o como una actividad mercantil, dependiendo de la finalidad que se persiga.