TY - Generic T1 - An index to forecast housing returns Y1 - 2018 A1 - Amédée-Manesme, Charles-Olivier A1 - Michel Baroni A1 - Fabrice Barthélémy KW - Dynamics KW - Forecasting KW - housing KW - Hpi AB -

This research demonstrates the substantial benefits obtained by modeling housing price using a- repeat sales factorial model. In particular, the model is able to give accurate forecast of housing returns on a short or medium run. The index is built-up by determining the weight of 9 economic and financial indices (rental index, short or long-term rate, inflation, stocks index, REITs index, population, Disposable income, population and CPI) to explain capital returns and then to represent housing prices dynamics. The index is computed on Paris housing market from transactions. Mainly the results provide empirical evidence of the ability of the model to forecast short and mid-term changes of the housing prices and more importantly of the housing returns dynamics. Also, the proposed model makes possible to analyze deeply the basic elements that govern the housing market. The developed model also offers applications to regulation and credit risk

JA - 25th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference T3 - ERES: Conference CY - Reading, UK J1 - Conference: 2018 ID - oai:eres.id:eres2018_42 M3 - 10.15396/eres2018_42 ER -