Individual selling prices and vacancy rates in the housing market render a close analogy to the „wage curve“, a popular concept in labor economics that describes how individual wages decrease with higher local unemployment.

While housing search and matching models strongly suggest a stable inverse relationship, there is still a lack of convincing empirical research on the sensitivity of house prices to local vacancy variation. Based on almost 8,000 single-family home transactions and controlling for a broad range of property- and neighborhood-level characteristics in hedonic regressions, this paper confirms a robust negative link between individual home prices and residential vacancies. The economic size of the relationship is very similar across the three analyzed states: a doubling of the vacancy rate at the municipality level is associated with an 8-12% discount in selling prices, yielding evidence of a „house price-vacancy curve“.